Behind The Scenes of Rock, Paper, Scissors (Edited Version)

far from a mathematician, but this video was interesting to me for thinking about the psychology of probabilities and statistics. Fact check me if I get any of this wrong but. 1) the assumption for the probabilities is that players play 'randomly' though, as Grey points out, it's unlikely that they do 2) in terms of playing randomly, given Grey played randomly with a 1/3 probability for each, and given the win condition w/r to draws, I believe the optimal strategy in response is simply to play each 'hand' independently but the probability the player sets for throwing any given option doesn't matter (i.e. just setting p(rock) = 1 doesn't actually change your odds compared to 1/3) 3) the 'heartbreaking' result of 'missing out on a 1 in a million experience' by failing to fail on the final hand of the losing path is actually the rarer experience given the winning chance is 1/3 and failing chance is 2/3, but it isn't experienced that way because repeated results feel unlikelier even when they're not, and our sense of 'luck' is shaped by our objectives 4) Grey's 'trillionaire' video seems to assume that the trillionth player will get the result even though it's as likely that it's the first player and 5) if something is a one in a million chance in a one shot scenario, while multiple people playing it doesn't change the odds that any given one of them wins, it does change the odds that there is a winner - I think it's at around 700,000 players that it becomes likelier that someone has already won the one in a million chance than that no one has (though on the other hand it also never becomes impossible that every player loses, only increasingly less likely). Just some thoughts that occurred as I watched about how... probabilities are weird! so thought I'd share. great content as always

Oliver Tushingham

When you did the "I'm going with Rock" thing in the first video, I was like, "I'm here to play rock-paper-scissors, not head games!" and did not proceed. (But I watched this video because I saw the Obsidian icon.) 😅

Kallin

Dang I wish I'd been there for this stream! really cool to see the behind the scenes map, and even cooler to see that it's laid out pretty similarly to the one I made! (it's on r/cgpgrey2 for anyone curious)

dialog_box

What I did, which I assume many "core viewers" did as well, is play the game honestly once, and then just tired to cheat my way through the whole map.

It's a core plugin (created by obsidian dev team) called canvas, it's really useful. obsidian.md/canvas

Is that the standard Obsidian graph or is it a plugin? Looks different more than just the theme.

Hi where do I get the discord link?

I think the algorithm hid this from me, I check the channel every month or so in case I missed something, and I don't remember the algorithm showing this to me despite being a subscriber for years and a Patreon now due to this project.

When will be the next upload? :>

Paris Doherty

Same. Brought me to tears.

Dawn Earp

I only played once. 100% not a cheater and was hoping for the BtS to show me all the stuff.

Dawn Earp

I would love that too!

Paris Doherty

Any chance we could get a supercut for those of us non- cheaters?

Dan M

As someone who played honestly, thank you for sharing the Trillionaire video.

Greg Pettigrew

About the "throw gun" stuff, I've only heard "Rock, Paper, Scissors, Shoot" if shooting, aka the gun, was an option. I didn't do it, but there was a genuine moment of confusion.

I was always the person who put a bunch of bookmarks in my Choose-Your-Own-Adventure books to be able to read every ending, and this mentality has not changed. Especially upon realizing in this BTS just how many more videos there are, going back for more. I "save my progress" and take all options to the finish.

I hope someone can find a way to let me just… watch all 1.5 hours of this. I so want to see it all but having to click that all sounds so painful

The animation in the final video is really beautiful

After a certain point, all the videos had roughly the same amount of views so I don't think there's anything to mess up.

This project reminded me repeatedly of the Ringworld series, where the Puppeteers breed luck into the human race using a birthright lottery.

I played honestly, was eliminated from round one on the third throw eliminated from round two on the second throw, and then eliminated from round three on the fifth throw. I then restart the game almost immediately playing around with different paths until I had to go to work… I was so much fun with it, and was almost late🥵🤣 Thank you for doing this.

This was great! Admittedly after a day or so I went back and checked out some other pathways just for funsies so sorry about breaking your stats :/

Ross

I really liked the final video! It’s like you were reaching out to the last person on earth, but then turned it around with a twist. Amazing creation

Anonymously_Famous

I played legitimately the first time, did HORRIBLY, and then decided to wait a couple of days before clicking through the win path to see what those videos were like - specifically because I didn't want to screw up the early stats! :D

Stacey

My question is, now that I have come here just for this video, can I go back and cheat to see the rest of it? I got to round 5 and would love to but I don't want to screw up the statistics. If you're doing a statistics video, I won't play again until it's uploaded

I hope that the gift to yourself isn't among the end-of-year hopes and dreams this video broke, because it's a really neat idea that's been fun to think about through the year.

Sev Coyote

Good job! Luck was on your side! But also shucks!

Paris Doherty

Wish I could have made the livestream. I can say one off of one million on my 1st try was legitimately me and it was BRUTAL. Then I bombed out of other attempts quickly. Then I just had to see the end. Lol. Awesome experience though! Want to take my wife through it.

Ultraczar

If we can 'cheat' to get to the 1 trillion video maybe we can do the same with the odds of humanity surviving!

Parker Bond

I think you can cast this to your tv. The livestream was also on YouTube but you needed the link here. Not sure if it's still up or not though...

Parker Bond

Hi, is there anyway to watch this on YouTube? I usually watch my videos on my TV

frank sands

Thank you! I was watching part of the live stream yesterday, but had to turn it off to focus IRL. :)

just me