No, She Didn't 'Lose' 15m Democratic Votes
Added 2024-11-07 09:15:20 +0000 UTCHey folks, this is more of an SIO, but I recorded a solo show because I have to debunk this myth about Kamala losing 10-15m Democratic votes, and Trump only keeping his same voters from 2020. That isn't correct at all. I also have a million other thoughts that I really just want to get out there and that I hope will be helpful.
Matt and I will be back on Friday. Also, I'm not charging Patreon for this one since it's on SIO. Thanks.
Comments
Finally. Someone has said this out loud.
Rebecca Bikfasy
2024-11-11 00:46:36 +0000 UTCI appreciated on the latest OA they acknowledged that being trans may override financial security in the decision to stay or leave right now. Having enough money to emmigrate right now won't protect me from the calls for eliminating me from public life. They want me not to be here, one way or another and that's terrifying.
Rick Woodward
2024-11-08 21:26:50 +0000 UTCIn a surprise twist, I think I agree with Thomas on almost everything here. The only data quibble I have is that Virginia should be considered in the swing state group because Republicans have been winning statewide there, e.g. Youngkin. Strategically, we do need simpler messaging but we also need more concrete messaging. It is "an opportunity economy" versus "we won't tax your tips". It is "comprehensive immigration reform" versus "build a wall". The success of Bernie's messaging gets close. e.g. "Medicare for all" is tangible to most people only because most people know someone on Medicare. The "healthcare as a human right" is where he starts losing people because to most Americans human rights are something they only hear about being abused. We also need candidates that are fun and exciting. If you can't imagine them hosting a YouTube channel then they aren't a good candidate for president. The medium is the message and the youngest voters are very, very cool with that. They are not turned off by narcism. The "he is only running for himself" sounds to young voters like "grass is green". Finally, to echo something Thomas got close to, I think Harris ran a good campaign but I think her "turn the page" slogan backfired. Some people said "yes, I will turn the page, away from Biden". Unfortunately the median voter is not smart.
Drew Vogel
2024-11-08 14:10:53 +0000 UTCNo, that's not the conversation.. they didn't fucking vote for Harris. That's what is being discussed... And, apparently you're unaware that Lebanon,Syria and Iran AREN'T FUCKING PALESTINE. Are you people truly this uninformed on world events? I see why reality doesn't make sense to you. And no, it's not a given that Trump would be worse than the Biden administration on MENA (Middle East North Africa), as evidenced by Biden's furthering of Trump immigration policy, police funding, and basically ignoring COVID as well. The US apparatus and proxy colonizers are fully wedded to the Democratic machine, but not necessarily to Trump's selfish needs. MBS and Putin will have a large hand in our foreign policy, and the wanton destruction of thier allies isnt good for Trump's interest. By any large, people who don't vote aren't responding to exit polls. It's hard to be convinced of something when you clearly don't understand the dialogue, or can't bother to read about what you're even trying to comment on.
bouteilles de vin et polystyrène
2024-11-08 13:48:17 +0000 UTCI think the GOP has adopted and baked into the public mindset that they're the selfish choice. Dems are all about high ideals and compassion and kindness to the others, but you vote GOP when you selfishly want to be richer, freer of crime, and to not have to be respectful of others. Every story and scandal and policy by the GOP plays into this, such that even when the GOP steals from you or costs you your job, the sense is that if you want to be selfish rather than generous, you vote GOP. And we've got an awful lot of people who are both selfish and doesn't understand their own interests beyond that narrative.
Gmork
2024-11-08 13:25:08 +0000 UTCSo they voted for Trump based on... Palestine? Even though the actual data says otherwise and anyone who gives half a shit about Palestine knows Trump will be worse? I'm not trying to be a dick but this isn't convincing, it genuinely doesn't make sense to me
Bald Weasels Scrotal Manscaping
2024-11-08 06:52:00 +0000 UTCNo it's not. They have an algorithm based on counties reporting and stuff. It's not perfect but it's more advanced than that.
Opening Arguments
2024-11-08 06:46:48 +0000 UTChttps://www.fox13memphis.com/news/how-ap-uses-expected-vote-instead-of-precincts-reporting-when-determining-a-winner/article_3d30e1a0-9bba-11ef-be9b-2310dcdbb6bd.html
Lisa S
2024-11-08 05:30:26 +0000 UTCAP reports estimated % of votes reported now, but they calculate the denominator based largely on the previous election, so using it to calculate total votes will get you close to the previous turnout every time. We won’t know how many votes we had until all are counted.
Lisa S
2024-11-08 05:29:12 +0000 UTCMy only issue with your calculations is that it’s circular. The % counted is largely based on previous turnout numbers and population changes, so using that % to calculate the total just gets you back to what they started with. We may have a similar turnout or we could have less or more, but the % counted doesn’t tell us that because it’s calculated starting with previous turnout and adjusting it based on some other factors to estimate how many they think will have reported.
Lisa S
2024-11-08 05:25:28 +0000 UTCNo, it isn’t true that she got 14m fewer votes. That is false. They are still counting. She is projected to be -5m from Biden. That’s quite a bit different than 14m
Opening Arguments
2024-11-08 04:33:46 +0000 UTCWhile anyone that voted for Trump might be what any non-Trumpers refer to as 'uninformed', I am starting to see another issue. Many of them are tuned into politics. But they are zoned into their social media/internet bubbles (as are we) to never hear the other side. Every side here is chronically online, but they are limited to their algorithms that feed them the same shit every day. That's why the election results were a surprise to me. Because I refused to break from my algorithm of liberal info, and didn't realize how big the support was from people outside of my bubble. Anytime I saw a red post, a fox clip that didn't have Pete Buttigeg, or any other facism or bigotry, I got angry and forced myself deeper into my algorithm. So I never saw this coming.
Undercover-Toad
2024-11-08 02:51:12 +0000 UTCThomas stated that no one really voted based on the genocide that the Israeli fourth Reich has been committing with the full backing of the Democratic Party, with no change in site from the candidate on the ticket...also skewing, or outright changing numbers isn't "collecting data". If it were, as I previously stated, none of the registration numbers for 2020vs 2024 were taken in to account, proportionally adding even more losses to the already 100k. I say cope, because instead of actually looking at the reasons (stated by many on the left for months) why this was such an epic failure, excuses and flawed math are thrown out to "cope" with losing.
bouteilles de vin et polystyrène
2024-11-08 01:58:50 +0000 UTCIt’s certainly possible, but I’m not sure. The vote totals haven’t moved all that much in the past few days. Only time will tell. I just felt that it’s important to point out the faulty assumption that it was x% of the votes in that state.
James Hilton
2024-11-08 01:34:12 +0000 UTCI haven't finished this episode so I'm not sure if my take here is what Thomas already came to but I really think that we lost this election because voters are mad about global inflation. So many incumbent governments have lost power, and even some of the world's most locked in governing parties in democracies like the LDP (Japan) or ANC (South Africa) have lost majorities in the post covid years. I think its unfortunate voters did not take Trump's extremism and criminality serious enough (and a large share of voters like that) but as for why we lost this election, I think the tipping point was as simple as voters across the world are throwing out their governments over inflation. The Democrats actually fared better than many other governing parties up recently, such as the UK Conservatives.
ToddTheOdd
2024-11-08 01:26:50 +0000 UTCThank you Thomas. I was thrilled to hear you were as bothered about this as I was. And grateful you took the time for the deep dive. This issue and the tremendous voter suppression tactics from the right drive me crazy when it comes to election reporting. And everyone just leaps onto the easiest narrative and that becomes THE story. I am for sure utterly burnt out and exhausted but you, Matt and Lydia keep me motivated.
M. D. Nova
2024-11-08 01:18:59 +0000 UTCI suspect Thomas underestimated the degree to which the final reported data supports his analysis (given that larger population centers both report later, and sway blue)
Bald Weasels Scrotal Manscaping
2024-11-08 01:16:06 +0000 UTCOne of the first reasons I started listening to OA as a trans person was how Thomas walks the walk as an ally.
M. D. Nova
2024-11-08 01:14:38 +0000 UTCI don't understand what you mean by "to think the 4th Reich isn't a voting issue is obtuse". Thomas was commenting on data obtained by asking people their voting issues. "Fascism" and "protecting democracy" and such just didn't appear. It's possible that data is bad, or maybe it's good data (as in, well-sampled and well-recorded) but people don't actually know why they voted. However, even if people are wrong about their own voting motivations, I am unsure how someone else could be right, without having other data. The commentary in this episode was just analyzing data. It seems unfair and a bit weird to label Thomas's analysis "coping", even if you disagree with it, think he didn't do a good job, or have other data.
Bald Weasels Scrotal Manscaping
2024-11-08 01:09:03 +0000 UTCOk I get your point that the 14 million fewer votes aren’t what lost her the election, but it’s still true that she got 14 million fewer votes. That part isn’t incorrect. The narrative about that loss of votes/enthusiasm is still completely legitimate, it’s just technically incorrect to say that those votes are the only reason she lost. I feel like you totally wrote off Bernie’s point about Kamala losing with the working class more broadly, which is still a very legitimate and important story to tell; it shouldn’t be written off entirely as something worth discussing because some people on Reddit were technically incorrect about where the GIGANTIC loss in votes came from. TL;DR: No it’s not why she lost, but that doesn’t mean it’s all BS.
Andrew Kopel
2024-11-08 00:25:15 +0000 UTCYour conclusion of what needs to be done next is correct, but I believe your methodology of projecting how many votes are coming in is faulty. When a state/county shows "x% reported" that doesn't mean "x% of votes reported" it means "x% of precincts reported". Each precinct has a different population total, and thus a different vote total. So I don't think you can extrapolate the way that you did to estimate the final vote tallys. But really that's beside the point, like I said up top, what needs to be done is the same regardless of how many votes Kamala lost/gained. We need to stop playing defense like we always do and start some aggressive offense.
James Hilton
2024-11-08 00:19:58 +0000 UTCThanks, I appreciate your support. Best wishes to you and yours.
Adam
2024-11-07 23:34:55 +0000 UTCNot a wuss! Stay strong Adam… I’m right there with you. We all are.
Status Quo Level Thing
2024-11-07 23:33:08 +0000 UTCUm..MI AND PA more than 100k less VOTES, not polling. And.. all this to obfuscate the almost 10 million less total, just so far. How many MORE voters in WI this general? More in MI and PA, so I'd imaging more in WI too. Those numbers matter.. And all to just make apologies for things the actual left said were likely...
bouteilles de vin et polystyrène
2024-11-07 23:30:35 +0000 UTCThanks for the episode. It gave me a lot to think about. There was that article from the nation that was going around talking about how the electorate is really divided between pro-system and anti-system politics. The democrats this time had the disadvantage of defending increasingly unpopular systems. I think you’re right that we have to stop playing defense. We absolutely should defend the systems that we have because as broken as they are, they’re better than what Trump is going to do. But defending the systems is not a great campaign strategy. We need a vision for what we want the world the look like. It reminds me of an old episode of Sam Harris’s podcast (before he went full anti-woke) where he had a climate expert on who talked about how climate doom talk isn’t working. What we need is a vision of what the world could look like if we had basically unlimited, cheap energy. We need the same thing now. Something to reenergize us. A North Star that we can look at for what kind of world we want to create that provides people an alternative to fascism when they’re looking for change. Obama did this very well in 2008.
I have perspicaciously noted that JBP is a moron
2024-11-07 23:00:53 +0000 UTCHe’s not talking about polling, he’s comparing the actual election counts in swing states from 2020 compared to 2024. In Wisconsin Biden got about 1,630,866 votes in 2020 and Harris got 1,668,757. She got 38,000 more votes than Biden, but Wisconsin went blue in 2020 and red this week. What better explains this? Liberals staying home or Trump getting 87,000 more votes compared to 2020?
I have perspicaciously noted that JBP is a moron
2024-11-07 22:27:45 +0000 UTCYes, and I was literally on the AP site as I listened, and saw the factual discrepancy..and the fuzzy math done to try and prove the theory. Literally rationalizing a unfactual take. Just saying things doesn't make them real. Even now, 2pm PST, Harris is still down 100k in MI from 2020 numbers. Again, a state that Rashida Talib GAINED votes.. Also, never touched on the total number increase in total registered voters, Dem added registered over 2020 numbers.
bouteilles de vin et polystyrène
2024-11-07 22:18:14 +0000 UTCI'm a wuss, but I can't engage right now. I'm scared for my son who's 14. I don't want a world led lawless people who will lead the world to chaos and war. I love my son. I can't listen to politics, I feel my blood pressure spike when I think of an uncertain future. Thanks for your strength and resilience, apologies for my shortcomings.
Adam
2024-11-07 22:16:33 +0000 UTCHe literally started the episode making a point about how he doesn't really rationalize things and then walks through where he got his numbers.
Lexy
2024-11-07 21:50:40 +0000 UTCThank you Thomas. And thank you Matt, Lydia, Heather and all other incredible people associated with this show. Thomas, you’re mirroring my roller coaster of emotions exactly and I appreciate it. My laughs are also spasms of relief at this point.
Status Quo Level Thing
2024-11-07 21:49:48 +0000 UTCMuch obliged because my last statement OA was way above other WTW, And some PIAT shows that you’ve appeared on. Not upset but it was a weird thing when I looked at my subscriptions to similar shows and even other Thomas Smith shows. Fwiw the difference between $16 or $20 makes no personal difference in my intentions to support
Rachel J Larris
2024-11-07 20:43:32 +0000 UTCHi Rachel! OA charges 9 episodes of the approximately 14 that are published each month. If there's cross-posting with a different show, it isn't charged on both feeds. Feel free to shoot us a message if you're seeing something different on your end and we can check it out!
Lydia Smith
2024-11-07 19:19:15 +0000 UTCLet's get to work!
Shad Riley
2024-11-07 18:58:31 +0000 UTCYou're talking about polling numbers of Biden? Months before an election with proven shit polling? Or from 2020? The fucking COVID election? Come on man, you're more informed than that. Like I said, your fuzzy math doesn't add up dude. MI (which Talib won with MORE votes)numbers, equal or less than 2020. PA also. So, again,I get the coping attempt, but to try it this way is sad. Also, while trying to castigate Latino men, I don't think you, or apparently liberals in the whole, understand colorism very well. How the FUCK you say 69 million (lets say 71 for argument)isn't more than millions less than 82 million, by attempting to rationalize "swing state numbers" is missing the point entirely. How about Kamala lowering capital gains taxes as a platform? Bragging about the lethality of our military? And, while you handwave the arming of the fourth Reich, it is far more than just a single issue problem for clearly a lot of people, hence the Democratic failure. Since you're not ready to eschew capitalism, I would hazard against self identifying as "leftist".
bouteilles de vin et polystyrène
2024-11-07 18:37:37 +0000 UTCThanks for not charging. I don’t mind funding but fwiw OA charges the most episodes a month of my subscriptions. Some of which are your other shows
Rachel J Larris
2024-11-07 18:15:55 +0000 UTCThank you, Thomas. Solidarity, my friend.
Erin Hutton
2024-11-07 18:10:37 +0000 UTCYou are incorrect. Here’s another point, if your theory is that Harris lost massive numbers by being not progressive enough, why did Biden have those numbers to begin with? Are you saying Joe Biden was a beacon of progressivism and Kamala was too conservative? My analysis is correct. I literally used AP as my source.
Opening Arguments
2024-11-07 17:42:29 +0000 UTCWhen it's time to get to work Thomas goes to the sheets 😏
Russ
2024-11-07 17:40:20 +0000 UTCThanks for this analysis. I like the idea of simpler messaging, but I am concerned about how that fits with the media landscape. So much media is controlled by an oligarchy there is such a double standard in coverage between dems and repubs. I’m not sure how much of this coverage affects actual voters though
Michael Ardron
2024-11-07 17:14:12 +0000 UTCThank you, and I also listen to 5-4. I just hear a lot of language outside them and here that talks about losing rights, transphobia, and lumping that in with things like abortion access. Those are all legitimate and disturbing. I appreciate this podcast in particular because they take it that step forward to call out how trans people are being used as a convenient minority on the right to get behind demonizing and, likely soon, destroying us. We're a smaller portion of the population by a bit (0.6% vs 0.72%) than the Jews were in Germany when their fascist dictator took over using the same rhetoric, and...I guess in that "they came for x and I did not stand up for them..." will have us as first or second in the list. It feels better to be seen and to acknowledge that pain and fear, even if there aren't as many of us.
Rick Woodward
2024-11-07 16:49:33 +0000 UTCThank you for going through the numbers. I agree with your take. I also think there were a lot of young/new voters that voted on how they "feel". Trump ran a populist campaign. It was all fear. Fear of the government. Fear of trans people. Fear of immigrants. Fear. Fear. Fear. No one cares about policy. The average American listens to Joe Rogan. They are not listening to a deep dive on Opening Arguments. Bernie and a left wing populist campaign is the only way to win. Make the messaging simple.
Jason McIntyre
2024-11-07 16:39:45 +0000 UTCThere really arent enough straight allies are there? I think another pod whom I assume are mostly straight is 5-4, their Trans policy under Trump episode was very confronting. I hope you flee the country successfully, that you have somewhere reasonably nice to go.
Jess C
2024-11-07 16:39:04 +0000 UTCAgreed. Various podcasts have pointed out that these points are increasingly ignored as it is easier to blame people rather than look at the institutions and the elitism that has captured both parties and see that this game divides the population while simultaneously increasing the plutocracy’s power at the expense of the people.
Ryan
2024-11-07 16:24:53 +0000 UTCThomas, I enjoy and respect your takes, but this inaccurate coping take isn't correct. I don't know what numbers you're getting, but AP (the most accurate account historically) shows exactly the opposite of what you're saying. I know it's easier to say "they win" , than "we lost", but just coping with it by finding an answer that soothes isn't really doing what you think. The DNC failed, yet again, to put forth options that voting people wanted. To think a genocide is only a "left" focus is truly ignorant as well. From the information I take in, and sources I use, I can assure you, you are not a "far leftist". I think that's why you're trying so hard to rationalize why a shit campaign, that sought the support of GOP voters over anything even remotely progressive, threw this away. They lost massive numbers, regardless of what fuzzy math you attempt. Maybe it's time for liberals to actually push for progressive action in their elected Democrats, instead of being satisfied with status quo liberalism that fucks over so many others in this country. To think the arming and funding of the fourth Reich, who currently is spreading our war isn't a major voting issue is truly obtuse.
bouteilles de vin et polystyrène
2024-11-07 14:50:21 +0000 UTCI just want to say thank you for what you and Matt have been doing by calling out that trans people are going to die from these policies and conditions. Lots of people are going to suffer from this, but it is terrifying to be in the position of a tiny minority being used to scare and galvanize millions of people who don't want us to exist. So many voices on the left will say that this is just a matter of losing some rights, but I'm scared for my life and you guys seem like the only straight cis people who are taking it seriously and being allies. I'm recently out and I'm most likely going to flee the country. Thank you for seeing us.
Rick Woodward
2024-11-07 14:44:28 +0000 UTCTrump does not scare me. Chosing Trump is what scares me. The "left" (whatever that means), when it loses, will always lose because it is too ashamed to admit that people are just weak, self-interested, averse of introspection and irrational. The left (whatever that means) will always lose because it will not, and existential cannot, lean on the worst part of human nature. And it should never do it, I am not advocating that. Trumps throughout the world take power by vindicating and validating what's worst in us. In a democratic country, where iformation IS there (albeit difficult to track) and elections are more or less fair, blaming the elites, or misinformation, is a valid point, it is a main point, bit it cannot nullify the responsibility of the voters. Democracy means that the goverments are accountable to the people. But it also means that the people are accountable to themselves and the future. That's my two pennies, and I am referring to the world in general, not just the USA.
Maria Kladaki
2024-11-07 14:38:33 +0000 UTCI’m gonna echo those who agree this is a great and useful podcast episode. It cuts through the BS from every brain dead Redditor who thinks they’re a political science professor. Thanks for doing it.
Mike
2024-11-07 14:28:05 +0000 UTCHey, Thanks for putting this out. Really, thank you. I'm just responding to the last thing you said about burnout. To save my sanity, I plan on turning off MSNBC and CNN and listening to you, Matt, and a few other podcasters for news and information. Keep doing what you are doing. I appreciate you all and need this. Oh, and by the way, I am a mom living in Florida with a lesbian daughter and a trans son. Also must mention a fantastic husband who loves his kids and is freaking out as much as I am, maybe more.
Kate
2024-11-07 14:01:35 +0000 UTCLies and sanewashing - that’s how they won. Orwellian doublespeak. Lies are Truths. Alternative facts. It might be too late to point fingers without risk. What will the backlash be when those sad incels discover that wearing their MAGA on their sleeves isn’t winning the women? That all the jobs they’ll get when the migrants are rounded up are the migrant jobs they didn’t want? That everything still costs too much? Stay tuned…
Rae
2024-11-07 13:07:27 +0000 UTCVichy Florida voted no on protecting abortion access and weed legalization. (The yes vote was 57% on both but winning isn’t enough, you need 60%).
Marshall Kuhlman
2024-11-07 13:02:36 +0000 UTCSomeone on Reddit suggested we lean in and it’s terrifying. Please keep calling out the bs Ihttps://www.reddit.com/r/GodAwfulMovies/s/azhiy2V2hK
KeepingThePlatesSpinning
2024-11-07 12:20:53 +0000 UTCThomas, I really appreciate that you called out the BS of Harris "not addressing" the concerns of the working class or whatever the fuck. Harris has walked through each of her policies over and over, including a fairly comprehensive plan to improve the lives of the working class. You make an excellent point about information consumption among the electorate. Harris was out there explaining shit and caring. Whereas the other guy just pointed fingers and made fun of people. It's super easy to understand and recall "It's her fault!" and "Why isn't she fixing it *now*?" and "tHe EcOnOmY!" This was always going to be a heavy lift; maybe an impossible one. I get folk being disappointed, scared, worried, and interested in addressing how to not have it happen again. What I have 0% patience for is people blaming a competent, qualified, hardworking black woman who fought hard for every-fucking-body else but was ignored, scapegoated, minimized, and ultimately pushed aside in favor of a mean-spirited, underqualified, buffoonish white man.
That Julia Person
2024-11-07 12:07:21 +0000 UTCThis was super useful. Thank you for going through the raw numbers and staying focused on, y'know, reality and what can be known from observing it. Regarding the data from "why did you vote x" questions, it's all we've got so it's right to use that data but I wish we could somehow validate it. I really wonder how accurate people can be about why they do anything, and we do know humans are awesome at ex post facto rationalization. And if you don't have time to follow politics, do you have time to introspect your own voting impulses? Going back to that SIO about extremism, ambivalence, and flip flopping, I wish they captured data about how strongly people felt when they voted. E.g. if you voted on abortion, one way or the other, my guess is more of those are "passionate" votes. If you voted on the economy, my guess is that's a higher proportion of "meh" votes. Instinct says it's harder to turn a pro life voter to pro choice, but the SIO ep would seem to contradict that. Anyway I don't really have a point, more some points I wish I knew more about.
Bald Weasels Scrotal Manscaping
2024-11-07 11:56:25 +0000 UTCYeah I think my brain has actually liquefied over all of the "this is why Kamela lost" takes. I am tired of the "elites" talk - can we stop using that word? Does it help anyone to conflate academics with Nancy Pelosi with Peter Thiel and Jeff Bezos? Also, I thought you'd be a voice of reason on the brainrot "lost the working class" argument too. It's a relief to hear your thoughts on these things because the dumb explanations of all this are such an insult to injury.
Jess C
2024-11-07 09:39:52 +0000 UTC
