The Ukraine war: one year on w/ Paul Rogers
Added 2023-02-27 13:15:34 +0000 UTCPaul Rogers returns to talk about the Ukraine war, one year after the beginning of the Russian invasion. We discussed why the Russian military have been so unsuccessful in their aims and whether the extraordinary scale of Russian casualties will undermine support for Putin within Russia. We also talked about whether Ukrainian strategic goals align totally with those of the US and NATO states, and if there is any plausibility to the idea of a negotiated settlement. Finally, we talked about why there is much less clear cut support for Ukraine in the global south.
Comments
The drive to Kyiv had the hallmarks of a regime change operation. e.g. you don't sacrifice the lives of thousands of your most elite troops in a feint. Russia has succeeded in damaging the economy of Ukraine, killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians, created millions of war refugees, but it would be hard to argue that Ukraine is "demilitarized" to a greater degree now than it was in January of 2022, when it was relying largely on slightly modernized versions of late Soviet era weapons systems. The Ukrainians have hundreds of more advanced heavy infantry vehicles, artillery systems, tanks (some of which were abandoned by Russia in the first phase of the 2022 war). Ukraine has more advanced air defense capabilities than it did in January 2022. Azov and Right Sektor have been fully integrated into the Ukrainian military (there are neo-nazis and ultra-nationalists fighting on both sides of the conflict). In 2014, Ukraine had a paper army in the hundreds of thousands -- there are estimates that it only had a real capable fight force of about 2,000. That is no longer the case. Going forward Russia is more dependent on China and Turkey for its economic needs and China for military procurement. The Russian military has burned through its own Soviet-era stockpiles of munitions. Russia has taken Ukrainians who were clearly divided between the EU and Russia and pushed the overwhelming majority of the country towards the EU. The Russian invasion has provided political cover for neo-liberal reforms inside Ukraine and political cover for ultranationalists who are looking to remove any traces of the Russian language or culture. The escalation of the invasion in Feb 2022 has pushed Finland and Sweden into a formal military alliance with the UK, U.S., Poland and the Baltic States (regardless of what happens with NATO). There is still no clear resolution to the war. I don't think there are any real winners in this conflict other than military contractors and advocates of a broader war.
J P 3
2023-03-01 06:36:05 +0000 UTCThis guy has imagined objectives that russia has failed to achieve, the russians have only said demiliterise Ukraine de Nazify Ukraine and liberate dombas, ok clearly they hoped to do it by forcing a negotiation which was scuppered in march. but other than that they seem to be on track
Anna Wakefield
2023-02-28 16:02:40 +0000 UTC
