Atlantic Council 1-6-25 Redux: Word From Belgium

For my second Atlantic Council event of the day, I dropped in on the chat with Belgium's Foreign Minister/serving Deputy Prime Minister Maxime Prevot. I'd been looking forward to this one ever since the event was announced. As I noted in my recap of the AC's Venezuela round table, I had originally planned to only attend this one. Then the whole Maduro thing happened, which made Venezuela a more pressing concern.

Nonetheless, I was still highly curious as to what Prevot had to say. He has an interesting CV --formerly affiliated with the World Bank while awesome being the member of Belgium's government to announce their plan at the UN to recognize Palestine. Of course, I was initially drawn to this event due to Trump's highly controversial National Security Strategy, which took an especially provocative stance in regards to Europe. More recently though, in light of Trump's shifting stance in Ukraine, I've come to wonder if this was another feign by the US. Either way, I hoped this would make for an interesting discussion.

The mod was Jorn Fleck. He opened up gushing about Prevot being the first foreign dignitary the AC hosted. No doubt this was supposed to be an impressive showing even before the whole Maduro thing. After talking up Prevot for a minute or two, Fleck dove right in to the Q & A --he kind of had to. Provost was roughly 15 minutes late.

The foreign minister opened by acknowledging that the world is changing and that Europe must adapt. He insisted that US and EU interests don't need to conflict before noting that the National Security Strategy expressed a "troubling sentiment." He confessed that the report highlighted some EU vulnerabilities. While Prevost characterized it as a "wake up call," he also claimed that parts of it were "difficult to understand" in regards to Europe. While the US and EU could disagree, it was not not in the US's interest to weaken Europe. In Prevot's estimation, a strong, united Europe is the US's best asset.

Prevot claimed that it was "a bit painful" to read that Europe was ill, weakening democratically and that it's very territorial integrality was in jeopardy. He then went on to express optimism concerning his present round of meetings with US officials. He's working hard on a 15% tariff not just for Belgium, but all of Europe. This made him feel more confident as he headed home. He also noted that Trump has a good relationship with Philippe of Belgium. Because of course he would have a fine relationship with Belgium's king.

Prevot briefly touched on Maduro, saying that he was happy that he was gone, but had questions about how it was done. This led into his musings on international law. He noted that it would be difficult for Europe to adapt to the new order. It would be "really painful" for the EU if international law wasn't upheld. While not stated, the implication was that American arms and troops were crucial to that endeavor.

Inevitably, he went on a rant about the US's ongoing threats to seize Greenland, insisting that it was "totally unacceptable." If security is a concern, why not work through NATO rather than claiming it as US territory? I can't help but wonder how serious this all is. Is it just a combination of Trump's bluster and Europe's feigned indignation? The audience was practically in heat over the prospect of a Greenland rant while we awaited Prevot's arrival.

Anyway, Prevot then made the predicable insistence that Ukraine's security was vital to the EU's. He wanted the EU more involved in the peace process and emphasized that security guarantees "should be provided by the US." He also bemoaned the lack of anonymity EU leaders have when talking about Russia among themselves while also acknowledging that four years of war had weighed on various members' national ambitions.

Next, we got into why Brussels' opposition to seizing Russian assets to pay for the Ukraine war. Prevot again talked up international law, before acknowledging that there likely would have been massive capital flight out of the EU if such actions were taken.

I was actually planning on asking a question. Thanks to River, I had something that wouldn't freak out the audience: Mercosur. Unfortunately, time was short, so I didn't get a chance to appear on ACTV again.

Fortunately, one of the other audience members asked about Mercosur just before we wrapped. Prevot was optimistic, saying it could be concluded by the end of the week. He stated the obvious: the EU must diversify its trade partners after the trade war with the US. However, it was interesting to note that Brussels will abstain from the vote. Prevot cited federalism before pointing to the farmers.

Prevot is a major figure in EU circles. My suspicion is that part of the purpose to his trip is to get Trump's permission for Mercosur to go through. He talked like the deal is done, they just need the signatures. Hence why Prevot is visiting the US rather than hammering out the last bit of negotiations on Mercosur.

And that's all for today folks.