April 29th, 2025: Offense, Williams, Rotation, Escarra, Velocity

We had a rainless rainout Saturday. The Yankees postponed the game nice and early, before everyone began their trek to the Bronx, and I appreciate that. But then it didn’t rain. Well, no, it did rain eventually, but not until 7pm ET or so, well after the scheduled first pitch. The Yankees played through a monsoon with the Giants two weeks ago, then got rained out against the Blue Jays with no rain. No one gets the weather right all the time, not even the pros, but whoever called Saturday’s game has had better days at the office. Well, whatever. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees are 10-6 in their last 16 games and in four of the six losses they had a lead in the sixth inning or later. Twice they had a lead in the ninth inning. Losing winnable games stinks, but losses are gonna happen, and when you have a chance to win almost every game you lose, it’s a good sign. You can count on one hand the number of times the Yankees got smacked around and were truly out of a game this season. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Sunday sweep

The Yankees pantsed the Brewers in the first series of the season, but I thought Sunday’s doubleheader was their most complete all-around effort this year. They hit well, they pitched well, and they defended well (mostly). Two games, two wins by the combined score of 16-3 against a division rival. If not for a Devin Williams blown save (more on that in a sec), it would have been a sweep.

“Two strong starting performances, the bullpen did its thing, and we got big swings along the way,” Aaron Boone told Dan Martin.

The third inning against Kevin Gausman in Game 1 Sunday was the offense’s best inning of the season and that includes the back-to-back-to-back homers off Nestor Cortes on three pitches. Terrific at-bats up and down the lineup, including Anthony Volpe going from 0-2 to a bases loaded walk (video) and Austin Wells going from 0-2 to bases clearing double on the ninth pitch of the at-bat (video).

The Yankees drew five walks against Gausman in the inning and fatigue was certainly a factor once his pitch count began to climb, and that’s something the Yankees earned. After throwing 18 pitches in the first two innings, Gausman had to work hard in the third, and Blue Jays manager John Schneider didn’t want to pull his starter in the third inning of Game 1 of a doubleheader. The Yankees capitalized. 

“Outstanding. Just really good, disciplined at-bats,” Boone told Bill Ladson. “If you start chasing Gausman at all, he’s too good. You have to be disciplined in that inning.”

Gausman threw 24 pitches in two-strike counts in the third inning: 12 balls, 10 fouls, and two balls in play (Wells’ double and Cody Bellinger’s sac fly). He got ahead in the count, then couldn’t put anyone away. Gausman threw 53 pitches (!) in the third inning overall. That is the most pitches a single pitcher has thrown in an inning against the Yankees since pitch-tracking launched in 2008. Here’s the list:

1. Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays: 53 pitches in the third (April 27th, 2025)
2. David Price, Tigers: 51 pitches in the first (April 22nd, 2015)
3. Jake Odorizzi, Rays: 51 pitches in the fourth (Sept. 11th, 2017)
4. Jason Vargas, Royals: 49 pitches in the fourth (May 17th, 2017)
5. Several tied with 48 pitches

Wells’ double was The Big Hit the Yankees have not gotten often the last few weeks. Going into Sunday’s doubleheader, the Yankees had scored more than four runs only four times in their previous 18 games. It was not because they’ve lacked baserunners. They just didn’t slug much. They put guys on, punched a single or a sac fly, and that was it. The Yankees finally busted a game open with the Wells double.

In Game 2 of the doubleheader, Trent Grisham opened the scoring with a leadoff home run, Aaron Judge gave the Yankees a lead with a go-ahead homer in the sixth, then the offense tacked on three more runs against the bullpen. That is the formula right there. Get good starting pitching, let Judge do Judge things, add a few runs late, then the bullpen slams the door. We saw what the offense is capable of in Game 1 but too often does not do (see: Monday). Game 2 was much more businesslike. A good Sunday, it was. 

Devin demoted

Figures the Yankees would trade for one of the best relievers in baseball only to have him regress into one of the worst relievers in baseball. Devin Williams blew Friday’s one-run lead (three batters, three runs, zero outs) and it was technically his first blown save of the season, but it was hardly the first time he struggled. There is no sugarcoating it: Williams has been a complete disaster one month into the season.

“My biggest concern right now is to start putting up zeros,” Williams told Gary Phillips after being removed from the closer’s role Sunday. “We can have that conversation (about returning to the ninth inning) when we get there.”

The numbers on Williams’ stuff (velocity, movement, etc.) remain good and in line with past Aprils (Daniel Epstein agrees). There is just no semblance of control. Williams keeps missing off the plate to righties/in on lefties with his fastball and his changeup is all over the place. Williams has struck out only one of the last 13 batters he’s faced. This is the story right here:

2022-24 strikeout rate: 39.5%
2025 strikeout rate: 19.1%

2022-24 swinging strike rate: 18.0%
2025 swinging strike rate: 8.9%

2022-24 changeup whiff rate: 44.2%
2025 changeup whiff rate: 22.0%

Williams was one of the game’s elite bat-missers from 2020-24. Arguably the best bat-misser in the sport, really, and that bat-missing ability is gone. Disappeared. Why this has happened, I do not know. Williams could be out of whack mechanically, maybe he can’t handle New York, maybe he’s secretly hurt, maybe his new baby is keeping him up at night. I dunno. Whatever it is, it’s bad. Worst case scenario stuff.

“With the way things have gone, it’s not a shock to me,” Williams told Ladson after being demoted. “Being a closer is a position you have to earn, and you have to keep earning it to continue to be in that role. I haven’t been doing that. It’s disappointing. You work for years to get to that point and you have it taken away from you. It’s not a fun feeling at all. I can’t say it’s undeserved.”

The Yankees made the change and moved Luke Weaver into the closer’s role Sunday. It was an easy fix. The Yankees did not have to go scrambling for a new closer. The downside now is the setup crew isn’t quite as deep. Boone has been the manager long enough that we know he uses a set closer and manages to save statistic. Weaver will pitch the ninth. Not the eighth against the 3-4-5 hitters or whatever.

Williams didn’t pitch in Sunday’s doubleheader even though the Yankees had a 10-run lead in Game 1, then he pitched Monday down one run. That is the Aaron Boone Managerial Experience™. Demote the struggling closer but still use him in close games. Boone did the same thing after demoting Clay Holmes last year. Williams tossed a 1-2-3 inning Monday, so who am I to complain? Hopefully that gets him going. I can't say I was comfortable with him on the mound in a winnable game though.

The best version of the Yankees has Williams shutting the door in the ninth with Weaver getting 3-6 high leverage outs anywhere from the sixth through eighth innings. That was the master plan and still is the master plan, really. The Yankees haven’t given up on Williams and they shouldn’t either. The track record is elite. He was one of the best relievers in baseball the last few years, if not the best.

It’s possible Williams is broken beyond repair, it does happen, though I’m not ready to say that in April. There is A LOT of season remaining and Williams is really talented. This first month has been really bad though. Bad enough to necessitate a closer change before May 1st. So you adjust, help him work through it, and try to get him on track. That’s all the Yankees can do, and that process is underway now that the closer change has been made.

“He still has everything to be great. He is in the prime of his career and he is just going through it a little bit, and it happens,” Boone told Ladson. “… The good news for Devin is he has everything to get through this and come out better from the other side. That’s my expectation. Right now, it’s best for everyone to pull him out of that role and try to start building some good rhythm, confidence, and momentum. I fully expect him to be a central figure for us moving forward.”

The rotation turnaround

Any pitcher can dominate on their best days (see: Domingo Germán’s perfect game). Aces are the guys who find a way to pitch well even when they’re not at their best, like Max Fried did in Game 1 Sunday. Six of the first 10 batters he faced reached base, yet he still finished with a strong line: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 3 K. Pretty good day for what was not a great day at the office. Fried had the grind through that one.

“I think there’s an inning every start that he gets through and then rolls after that,” Wells told Joyce about Fried. “That’s why he’s had so much success. That’s why he’s here.”

The Blue Jays entered Friday’s game with the fifth highest chase rate in baseball and that made them a good matchup for Carlos Carrasco, who fed them soft stuff on the edges/off the plate through five innings of shutout ball. Clarke Schmidt’s control still isn’t where it needs to be (four walks and eight three-ball counts in five innings in Game 2 Sunday), possibly because he tweaked his slider. Lucas Apostoleris noted Schmidt had much more movement on the pitch Sunday:

Even with the control problems, Schmidt gave the Yankees five innings of one run ball, and also built his pitch count up to 90. He's made two minor league rehab starts and three MLB starts after being slowed by back and shoulder trouble last month. Schmidt now is about where he usually is at the end of Spring Training. Not midseason form, but moving in that general direction.

Very quietly, the rotation has been good if not downright great the last two weeks or so (yes, I know Warren stunk Monday). The Yankees have played 29 games this season. Here are the rotation's numbers quick when we cut the season more or less in half:

• First 15 games: 5.40 ERA (4.59 FIP) and 4.9 IP per GS

• Last 14 games: 3.00 ERA (3.75 FIP) and 5.2 IP per GS

After ranking among the league’s worst rotations early in the year (and looking the part too), the Yankees are up to a serviceable-ish 22nd in ERA (4.21) and 18th in FIP (4.19), with a .323 xwOBA that is a tick better than the league starting pitcher average (.329 xwOBA). Even with the injuries, the rotation is not really as bad as it was those first 15 games. Things are beginning to level out.

Schmidt returning and essentially replacing Marcus Stroman has helped. Carrasco’s done well when he gets a favorable matchup, like the chase happy Royals and Blue Jays. Carlos Rodón hasn’t given up a homer in two starts and that’s not a thing that will last, but he’s pitched well more often than not, especially the last three starts. Fried is Fried. It’s beginning to come together.

I don’t want to make too much of 14 games. The rotation can only be so good when you’re running late career Carrasco out there every fifth day and we still don’t know which Warren will show up each time out (we're still waiting on his first set of back-to-back good starts), so twice each turn through the rotation the potential for a disaster start exists. Lately though, those disaster starts have been kept to a minimum.

Escarra’s big game (and a note on his framing)

J.C. Escarra’s first big league homer was the perfect capper to Sunday’s doubleheader sweep (video). He took old pal Chad Green deep – deep as in into the left field bleachers – and he knew it. Escarra dropped his bat Aaron Hicks style and admired his work a bit before breaking into his home run trot. I love that he’s leaning into the Uber driver thing and has a steering wheel celebration for hits (not just homers).

“I didn’t feel the ball off the bat. It was amazing,” Escarra told Dan Martin about his homer. “… It’s special that I did it here at home. This is my team, my family’s team. It’s a dream come true, doing everything as a Yankee.”

Love the homer, love the pimp job, love the steering wheel celebration. I also love that Wells was the most excited guy in the dugout when Escarra connected:

Going back to the Kyle Higashioka/Gary Sánchez days, the Yankees have had incredible chemistry at the catcher position. Escarra and Wells are competing against each other, right? There’s only so much playing time to go around and they both want it, that’s part of being a professional athlete, but they also have each other’s backs and want each other to do well. The catcher fraternity is unlike any other position.

Escarra is 5-for-25 (.200) with two doubles and a homer while starting seven of 29 games. Here’s another cool thing. Here is the catcher called strike rate leaderboard:

1. J.C. Escarra: 53.2%
2. Hayden Senger: 52.4%
3. Alejandro Kirk: 48.7%
4. Gabriel Moreno: 48.5%
5. Austin Hedges: 48.0%

On a rate basis, no catcher has gotten more called strikes for his pitchers than Escarra. He’s not close to the top of the framing runs leaderboard because he’s not a starter and hasn’t had many framing chances, but the Yankees have insisted Escarra is a top notch framer since last year, and the early season numbers back that up. The Yankees seem to have found themselves a solid, easy-to-root-for backup catcher.

“If you asked me two years ago if I’d be here doing this, I’d tell you you’re lying," Escarra told Martin. “This is stuff you dream about, but to have it be reality is crazy.”

Miscellany

Judge went 3-for-8 with a homer in Sunday’s doubleheader and his season wRC+ went down (249 to 247). Monday’s 2-for-5 dropped him down further to a 243 wRC+. Here’s the crazy thing: Judge’s 243 wRC+ this month is only his fourth best month over the last calendar year. Look at this:

1. June 2024: 279 wRC+
2. May 2024: 275 wRC+
3. August 2024: 271 wRC+
4. April 2025: 243 wRC+
5. July 2024: 214 wRC+

I’m running out of ways to describe this guy. Judge is pushing the limits of how good I thought a hitter could be … I feel like Wells is on the verge of really busting out. A double Monday, two doubles Sunday, four doubles plus several loud outs in his last four games, and only five strikeouts in his last 29 plate appearances. The at-bat quality and hard contact have been there. The results will follow soon (I hope) … Tim Hill against Vlad Guerrero Jr. on Friday was a curious move given the lefty/righty thing, but I get it. Hill is the game’s top ground ball reliever (84.2 GB%) and Boone was trying to keep Vlad in the park in a scoreless game. It didn’t work, but I get the thinking … Tyler Matzek made his Yankees’ debut in Game 1 Sunday and it didn’t go great. He gave up a) a run, b) Myles Straw’s hardest hit ball in two years, and c) a 112.5 mph double to lefty Addison Barger. Hopefully that was just a one-off, because you don’t have to try hard to see how a veteran lefty with high leverage chops and a 95 mph fastball can be useful … Nice work by Yerry De Los Santos in Game 1 Sunday. He was the 27th man for the doubleheader and threw two uneventful innings on 27 pitches. The doubleheader really could not have gone better, pitching-wise … Didn’t love Paul Goldschmidt pinch-hitting for Ben Rice with the bases loaded in Game 2 Sunday. The choice was Rice against a lefty who wasn’t throwing strikes (Brendon Little) or Goldschmidt against a fresh hard-throwing righty (Yariel Rodríguez). Goldschmidt grounded out to end the inning. He has a 92 wRC+ vs. RHP and a 355 wRC+ vs. LHP this year … Four errors in the last nine games for Oswaldo Cabrera, all throwing, and three of the four were airmailed into the stands/dugout, giving the runner an extra base. It’s (probably) just a funk, Cabrera’s defense is usually fine, though starting Oswald Peraza at third for Fried starts may not be a bad idea given how many ground balls Fried gets to the left side of the infield. Or, preferably, the Yankees could get an actual third baseman (he says for the third straight year) … Rice caught the ninth inning of Sunday’s Game 1 blowout win. It was his second time catching in a big league game. He caught the ninth inning of a blowout win against the Blue Jays last June 28th. The Yankees insist Rice is a good defensive catcher and that they haven’t closed the door on him behind the plate, but the way use him tells us they don’t trust him back there (yet) … And finally, Jazz Chisholm Jr. avoided a suspension for the whole “tweet about a bad call five minutes after getting ejected” thing. He was initially given a one-game suspension, but he appealed, then his agent and MLB worked out a settlement, and the suspension was dropped, per Phillips. Alrighty. First time I can remember that happening. Jazz still had to pay a $5,000 fine, which is better than losing a game’s worth of pay to the suspension (roughly $36,000).

Injury updates

Luis Gil (lat) started his throwing program Sunday and felt good Monday. He’s only playing catch at short distances, but he has begun the process. Six weeks is the usual build up estimate but I would not be surprised if the Yankees take it a little slower with Gil. Call it two months, and we’re looking at a late June return … DJ LeMahieu (calf) is 6-for-10 with a double and a homer through four rehab games. The numbers are whatever. Can’t read too much into what a 14-year veteran is doing against Double-A pitchers. But LeMahieu has played all four rehab games at second base (22 total innings). What’s that about? Boone said LeMahieu will play third base this week, so I guess the Yankees are just getting him reacquainted with second, and seeing whether LeMahieu can still play it? I dunno, putting a slow-footed 36-year-old coming off a calf injury at an up-the-middle position seems like a terrible idea … Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow) started a rehab assignment with Low-A Tampa on Saturday. Three up, three down, one strikeout, 10 pitches. No word on his velocity or anything because we no longer have public Statcast from Tampa (blame the Rays for the GMS Field thing). UCL surgery guys get up to 60 days on rehab, so Loaisiga doesn’t have to be activated until June 25th. I can’t imagine they’ll use the full 60 days though. He said he’s targeting late May/June, so figure a month from now. That’s enough time for 7-8 rehab appearances … Jake Cousins (forearm) has been throwing bullpens and is about two weeks away from throwing live BP. He’s targeting a return sometime in June. Cousins is on the 60-day injured list and can’t be activated until May 26th anyway … Marcus Stroman (knee) is playing catch, but he still has discomfort, and can’t do anything more. Sounds like we can forget about him for a while … Scott Effross (hamstring) will throw live BP soon, possibly even today … JT Brubaker (ribs) is still shut down and not doing anything … And finally, some clarity on Brent Headrick. He’s on Triple-A Scranton’s 7-day injured list with an oblique strain. Now sure how severe it is or how long Headrick will be sidelined, but even minor oblique strains usually aren’t a seven-day injury. It’ll be a few weeks.

Up next

The final two games of this three-game road trip to Baltimore, then the second of four straight Thursday off-days, then a six-game homestand. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:

• Tuesday at Orioles: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. TBA (6:30pm ET on YES)

• Wednesday at Orioles: RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. LHP Cade Povich (6:30pm ET on Amazon Prime)

• Thursday: off-day

Baltimore’s rotation looked sketchy coming into the season and things have only gone further south with Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez injured, and Charlie Morton showing his age. So of course the Yankees got shut down by Tomoyuki Sugano on Monday. He struck out nine batters in his first five starts, then struck out eight Yankees in five shutout innings. I hate this team sometimes.

Anyway, Tuesday’s TBA is expected to be Kyle Gibson. He signed a $5.25M deal with the Orioles near the end of Spring Training and allowed six runs in 12 minor league tune-up innings this month. Gibson got built up to five innings and 78 pitches last time out. Baltimore’s rotation is just bodies right now. Guys who can help you through 162 games worth of innings, but no one you want on the mound in the postseason.

2. The soft-tossing Yankees. The Yankees have a velocity problem and that problem is they don’t have much of it. One month into the new season, the Yankees rank near the bottom of the league in just about every measure of fastball velocity. Here are the numbers entering play Monday:

• Average four-seamer: 93.2 mph (28th in MLB; MLB average: 94.1 mph)

• 90th percentile four-seamer: 95.4 mph (30th in MLB; MLB average: 97.3 mph)

• Average sinker: 91.3 mph (30th in MLB; MLB average: 93.5 mph)

• 90th percentile sinker: 94.4 mph (28th in MLB; MLB average: 96.8 mph)

The Yankees lagging in four-seam fastball velocity is new this season. The sinker decline started last year thanks to Marcus Stroman and Tim Hill, who threw 36% of the team’s sinkers. The Yankees were among the league leaders in velocity the last few years (over the last decade, really), and now they’re not. Here’s where the team has ranked in average fastball velocity since the shortened pandemic season:

This isn’t entirely by design. Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil were both top 20 in average fastball velocity among starters last season, and they’ve combined to throw zero pitches this year. Clarke Schmidt missed a few starts as well. The soft-tossing Stroman and Carlos Carrasco were pushed into duty and the Yankees had to sign Ryan Yarbrough off the scrap heap just before Opening Day to be the long man.

Some of this is by design too though. The Yankees signed Carrasco and Stroman, right? They identified those players as offseason targets, and signed them. They also signed Hill and his 88 mph sinker, and traded for Mark Leiter Jr., who doesn’t light up the radar gun. Go back a few years and they also traded for Scott Effross. He hasn’t pitched yet this year, though that’s another example of the Yankees targeting a low velocity guy.

The Yankees aren’t oblivious to the lack of velocity. They know the roster they built and what their pitchers bring to the table. Jonathan Loáisiga, who we’ve seen hit 100 mph in the past, started a minor league rehab assignment this past weekend, and Matt Blake said he’s excited to get Loáisiga back because the Yankees do not have a righty reliever with top of the line velocity. That's not me saying that. Blake said it.

“We don’t really have a harder velo righty with a sinker or (four-seamer),” Blake told Greg Joyce. “So that matchup with the righty lane would be good. It’s something we kind of had a lot of with a bit. Ian (Hamilton) is a little bit of that guy right now but Lo really owns that role.”

Velocity is not everything but it is a piece of the pitching pie, and a pretty big one. Velocity equals margin of error. The harder you throw, the less time the hitter has to react, and it affects all pitch types. If a hitter has to respect your 97 mph fastball, it helps your slider and changeup play up. But, if you only sit 91 mph, the hitter has that much more time to read the pitch and react. Velocity matters. A lot.

J.J. Cooper dug into this last summer and surprise, the harder you throw, the more effective the pitch. And again, that’s across all pitch types. Hard sliders perform better than average velocity sliders, etc. Here are the numbers for fastballs since that’s what I’m talking about with the Yankees. This is four-seamers and sinkers combined and 2024-25 numbers to get a bigger sample:

That 87 mph and under group is only 3,583 pitches. That’s nothing. The other velocity buckets include tens of thousands of pitches, in some cases hundreds of thousands. The 87 mph and under club is not some market inefficiency. It’s a small sample with survivor bias, meaning the only guys in the big leagues in that velocity range have proven their effectiveness, like Hill. Most guys who sit in that range don’t even get a chance.

The pattern is clear. The harder the fastball, the more effective it is in terms of getting results (AVG and SLG), limiting quality contact (xwOBA), and missing bats (whiff %). The Yankees are living in the lower end of those velocity ranges this year. Too many 91-93 mph guys and not enough 94 mph and up guys. You can make up for the lack of velocity with quality secondaries, for sure, but only so much. Velocity is important.

Also, the lack of velocity is not limited to the big league team. Back in January, I wrote about the lack of velocity in the farm system, and what seemed like an effort to correct that in last year’s draft. The Yankees used their first seven picks on pitchers, all hard-throwers. Maybe that was a coincidence. I dunno. Point is, the Yankees are short on velocity in the Majors and minors. That seems … bad.

There could be an efficiency component to this. Guys without premium velocity are not valued as highly as hard-throwers, and the Yankees figured they could get more bang for their buck by zigging while everyone else zagged. Possible, though I think that would be too cute by half. Velocity = good is not changing. It is a hard and fast truth throughout baseball history, unlike the cycle of sinkers or cutters or whatever being the fashionable pitch. 

The Yankees have only so many ways to address their velocity issues in-season. Gil and Loáisiga are expected back in the coming weeks, and Gil could push Carrasco off the roster. They’ll probably trade for a pitcher(s) at the deadline and that guy could be a hard-thrower. Maybe Eric Reyzelman, my No. 20 prospect, gets the call and brings his mid-90s heat to the bullpen. There are a few ways to improve.

One month into the season, the Yankees are flirting with a top 10 pitching staff (by ERA, FIP, WAR, etc.), largely because of their non-Devin Williams bullpen. It’s hard to say the Yankees have been hurt by their lack of fastball velocity thus far. They miss Gerrit Cole more than miss Cole’s fastball specifically, you know? For whatever reason though, velocity appears to have taken a backseat organizationally. The Yankees are definitely going against the grain with their pitching staff.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Dodgers claimed Yoendrys Gómez after the Yankees DFAed him last week. Here’s his goodbye. Gómez got a three-inning save in Sunday’s blowout win in his Dodgers’ debut. The waiver order for the first 30 days of the season (not including international openers) is the reverse order of the previous year’s standings, so the Dodgers were at the end of the line. They had the best record in baseball last year. 28 of the other 29 teams passed on Gómez. He nearly cleared waivers and stayed with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. Alas. When a smart team like the Dodgers claims a player, you immediately think oh crap, what do they see that we missed? The Dodgers are very active on waivers though. They claim a lot of relievers and cycle through them each year, and only a few wind up having staying power. I know how these things go, guys change teams and sometimes things click for them, but if Gómez turns into an MFer with the Dodgers, then yeah, it’ll be fair to ask what the Yankees missed.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)