XaiJu
RAB Thoughts

RAB Thoughts

patreon


RAB Thoughts posts

November 21st, 2025: Imai, Rule 5 Draft Protection, Mailbag

Not for nothing, but given what I’ve seen out there on them internet streets, the reaction to Trent Grisham taking the qualifying offer is absurdly over the top. It’s hysterical, and not in a haha that's hysterical way. (The reaction everywhere else, I mean. Not from you folks. You’re all smart and great.) You’d think the Yankees are putting present day Jacoby Ellsbury in center field and no...

View Post

Quick thoughts after Trent Grisham accepts the qualifying offer

The Yankees have their 2026 center fielder and, presumably, their leadoff hitter (to begin the season, at least). Trent Grisham is one of a record four players who accepted the $22.025M qualifying offer, joining Shota Imanaga, Brandon Woodruf...

View Post

November 18th, 2025: Judge, Yarbrough, Bellinger, Chisholm

Congrats to Tyler Wade for getting the Aaron Judge MVP party invite.

The 2025-26 Offseason Plan went live last Friday, in case you missed it. It’s a labor of love but I’m glad to have it off my plate. The next big project is my annual Top 30 Prospects list (2025-11-18 11:00:11 +0000 UTC View Post

The Official 2025-26 RAB Offseason Plan

View Post

November 13th, 2025: Domínguez, Rowland, Imai, Coaching Staff, Awards, Mailbag

Three reminders. One, the Offseason Plan is coming tomorrow. Two, the MVPs will be announced tonight. Aaron Judge will either win his third or be the runner-up for a second time. And three, I’m planning to skip the regularly scheduled post on Friday, Nov. 28th. That’s the Friday after Thanksgiving. Unless there is breaking news that requires immediate attention, I’m laying low that weekend.&n...

View Post

November 10th, 2025: Tucker, Murakami, Minor League Free Agents

On this date 19 years ago, the Yankees traded Gary Sheffield to the Tigers for three pitching prospects who combined to give up 12 runs 5.2 innings with the Yankees. Picking up Bobby Abreu at the deadline that summer led to the Sheffield trade. It was a perfectly logical and understandable trade. It just didn’t work out. So it goes. I’m gonna use today’s ...

View Post

November 7th, 2025: Bellinger, Hill, Loáisiga, Grisham, Spring Training, Judge, Fried, Mailbag

Offseason Plan update: I think we’re good to go for next Friday, Nov. 14th. I can’t 100% commit to that just yet because there’s a chance real life gets in the way (including the Yankees doing something that requires immediate attention), but we’re on track for next week. I’d say it’s 75% done? The last big thing I’m waiting on is the list of minor league free agents, which I hope comes out today. Researching and outlining the Offseason Plan takes up the most time and brain powe...

View Post

November 3rd, 2025: World Series, Bold Predictions, Cole

Shoutout to my brother for reminding me Hal Steinbrenner said “we’ll see if it pays off” when asked about the Dodgers and their spending back in January. Perhaps it’s best Hal only does interviews with YES these days. The Dodgers won the World Series last year, upped payroll, and won the World Series again this year. The Yankees lost the ...

View Post

The Yankees and the 2025-26 Offseason Calendar

The Dodgers are World Series champions and the 1998-2000 Yankees are no longer the last team to repeat as baseball's title winners. It was a good run. The World Series is over and the offseason has already begun, and several important dates are on the horizon. Here is the 2025-26 MLB offseason calendar and what each date means for the Yankees.

Today, Nov. 2nd: Players become free agents, trading resumes

Eligible players (6+ years of service time) became free age...

View Post

October 31st, 2025: Coaching Staff, Mailbag

There are changes coming to the YES booth in 2026. Andrew Marchand (subs. req’d) says John Flaherty and Jeff Nelson are out with David Cone, Joe Girardi, and Paul O’Neill set to work more often. YES will cut back on the rotating analyst thing and have a more consistent booth. I like it. I think Cone, Girardi, and O’Neill are the best YES has, so I’m glad th...

View Post

October 27th, 2025: Blue Jays, Phillies, Chisholm, Rotation

The World Series is tied 1-1 and each team has won the exact type of game they have to win. The Blue Jays wore down Blake Snell in Game 1 and battered the bullpen. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was magnificent in Game 2 and the Dodgers mustered enough offense. On paper, the Dodgers have significant starting pitching advantages in Games 3 and 4, though I feel like the Blue Jays have been on the wrong end of the pitching matchups all postseason, and it hasn’t mattered yet. Anyway, here is Tuesday’s po...

View Post

October 24th, 2025: Okamoto, Bellinger, Domínguez, Volpe

The World Series begins tonight and either the Blue Jays will win their first championship since their back-to-back titles in 1992 and 1993, or the Dodgers will become the first repeat champions since the 1998-2000 Yankees. A real no-win situation for Yankees fans, eh? Too bad the Blue Jays and Dodgers can’t both lose. Anyway, I’m going with mailbag questions today. I logged some good Offseason Plan hours this week, plus this is the weird time of year when the Yankees aren’t playing but...

View Post

October 21st, 2025: World Series, Tucker, Skubal, Free Agency, Warren, Center Field

Terrible news: Jesus Montero died this past weekend. He was only 35. Reports out of Venezuela say he was hit by a drunk driver while riding his motorcycle. Just awful. If you’re reading this, you know Montero was a very big deal back in the day. I remember thinking he would pepper the short porch for a decade after 2025-10-21 10:00:15 +0000 UTC View Post

October 17th, 2025: Injuries, Qualifying Offer, Coaching Staff, Domínguez, Mailbag

Now that it has been over a week since the ALDS ended and we've had time to decompress, I'm not sure there's anything to take away from the series other than the Yankees got beat. Their two best starters gave up 13 runs in 5.1 innings and Aaron Judge's supporting cast did a bunch of nothing after being so good for 162 games. In the past, the Yankees have lost postseason series where their weaknesses were on full display and cost them their season (i.e. defense in 2024). This time they just go...

View Post

October 13th, 2025: Arbitration Projections, Bellinger, Weaver, Murakami, 2026 Draft

It has been five days since the Yankees lost the ALDS and they haven’t signed Kyle Tucker or traded for Tarik Skubal yet. Are they even trying? Here's an update on the usual offseason projects:

  • Offseason Calendar (last year’s): Honestly, I do this for myself as much as anything. It helps me keep my ducks in a row and it’s nice ...

    View Post

October 10th, 2025: Judge, Rodón, Williams, Rice, Lombard

The first post of the offseason is always a weird one. I have a list of things I want to write about, but also the season just ended, and I’m not ready to get into all that just yet. Given the quick turnaround from the Game 4 post to today’s post, I’m just gonna catch up on the mailbag today. Things will go back to normal next week. Here now is today’s quickie mailbag-only post.

View Post

Thoughts after Game 4 of the 2025 ALDS

Five innings. The Yankees held a lead for five innings in the four-game ALDS. They were outscored 38-19 and outhomered 9-4, and there just weren’t many moments during their 17 head-to-head games this year that the Yankees looked like they were on the same level as the Blue Jays. They finished with identical 94-68 records during the regular season, but did they look evenly matched? I don’t thi...

View Post

The Yankees have lost the 2025 ALDS

There will be no Game 5 of the ALDS. The Yankees were unable to follow Tuesday’s spirited comeback with a Game 4 win Wednesday, going out mostly with a whimper against Toronto’s bullpen game. Cam Schlittler pitched well, but two runs ain’t gonna cut it, offensively. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also chipped in a crucial error, because apparently the Yankees have to make (at least) one of those every p...

View Post

Thoughts before Game 4 of the 2025 ALDS

Confession: I wrote a “Yankees lose” version of last night’s very quick post around the third inning. Not so much because I was dooming, but because the game looked headed in that direction, and I wanted to get it off my plate before my CBS responsibilities kicked in. I’m glad it wasn’t need...

View Post

Very quick thoughts after Game 3 of the 2025 ALDS

Aaron Judge has his postseason moment and the Yankees have a pulse. Once down 6-1 in Game 3, the Yankees scored eight answered runs the rest of the way, none bigger than the three on Judge’s towering game-tying home run off the foul pole. Here’s the video...

View Post

Thoughts the day before Game 3 of the 2025 ALDS

Since Wild Cards became a thing in 1995, seven teams have erased a 2-0 deficit in the Division Series, including the Yankees twice. They did it against the Athletics in 2001 (the Derek Jeter Flip Play series) and also against Cleveland in 2017. Those 2017 Yankees are the last team to make a 2-0 comeback, and the only uniformed personnel remaining from that club are Aaron Judge and bullpen coach M...

View Post

Thoughts as the Yankees get routed in Game 2 of the 2025 ALDS

As I write this, George Springer hit a home run to give the Blue Jays a 12-0 lead as the Yankees continue to get humiliated in October/Toronto. Perhaps getting pushed to the limit in the Wild Card Series by a Red Sox team that gave away its best hitter and gave at-bats to Nate Eaton and Nick Sogard on purpose was a bad sign? Maybe the Yankees will get a hit sometime after I hit publish (they did ...

View Post

Thoughts after Game 1 of the 2025 ALDS

The Blue Jays have their first postseason win since 2016 and the Yankees are down 1-0 in the ALDS. Since Wild Cards became a thing in 1995, the team that wins Game 1 is 88-32 in best-of-five series. We know a 1-0 series deficit isn’t insurmountable, but beating Toronto three times in the next four games will be a heavy lift. At least Max Fried can start two of those four games, including Game 2...

View Post

Quick thoughts before Game 1 of the 2025 ALDS

The first ever Yankees vs. Blue Jays postseason series will begin in a few hours. Doesn’t the postseason feel so long when you’re in the Wild Card Series? This is just the ALDS! The Yankees would still have to get through the ALCS and World Series after this. They’re gonna have to shorten the regular season to 154 games or something. Pitchers aren’t gonna be able to do this year after yea...

View Post

Thoughts after Game 3 of the 2025 Wild Card Series

The AL East will be settled properly. It’ll be Yankees vs. Blue Jays in the ALDS after Thursday’s win over the Red Sox in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. The Yankees are the first team since the Wild Card Series became permanent in 2022 to win the series after losing Game 1. Also, the home team won only four of 12 Wild Card Series from 2022-24. They won three this year. (Sorry, Guardians.) View Post

The Yankees are going to the 2025 ALDS

A star was born on a Thursday night in the Bronx. Cam Schlittler, who started this season in Double-A, pitched the Yankees to the ALDS with a masterpiece against the Red Sox in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. Eight shutout innings and 12 strikeouts, a franchise record for a rookie in the postseason. Marvelous is an understatement.

The Red Sox played a sloppy game -- a sloppy last two games,...

View Post

Thoughts before Game 3 of the 2025 Wild Card Series

One way or the other, something that hasn’t happened in a long time will happen tonight. Either the Yankees will beat a non-AL Central team in a postseason series* for the first time since beating the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS, or they’ll lose a postseason series* while having home field advantage for the first time since getting swept by the Tigers in the 2012 ALCS. One good, one not so good....

View Post

Thoughts after Game 2 of the 2025 Wild Card Series

The Yankees aren’t done yet. Wednesday night the Yankees forced a Game 3 against the Red Sox with a Game 2 win, and they did it thanks to two players who were not in the lineup in Game 1. Ben Rice struck early, Jazz Chisholm Jr. made an impact on both sides of the ball late, and now the Yankees will play for a chance to go to the ALDS on Thursday.

“It has been two great games,” Aaron ...

View Post

Very quick thoughts before Game 2 of the 2025 Wild Card Series

The season is on the line tonight at Yankee Stadium (6pm ET on ESPN). Either the Yankees win and force a Game 3 tomorrow, or the season ends way too quickly and we’re asking the same “why can’t the Yankees beat non-AL Central teams in October? “ question. Here are the updated series ZiPS odds:

2025-10-01 17:36:31 +0000 UTC View Post

Thoughts after Game 1 of the 2025 Wild Card Series

And just like that, the Yankees are on the brink of elimination. The offense didn’t do much against Garrett Crochet and Aroldis Chapman in Game 1 Tuesday, the bullpen blew a lead (surprise!), and now the Yankees have to win two straight games against a team they have beaten once in their last 10 tries in October. The Red Sox are 3-0 at the new Yankee Stadium in the postseason.

“We are g...

View Post