February 11th, 2025: Spring Training, Fallen Prospects, Rule Changes

Spring has sprung. It’s cold in New York and there’s still slush on the sidewalk from Saturday’s snowfall, but pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training today, and that’s pretty awesome. Soon grainy cell phone videos of guys playing catch will hit social media. Bring me all of it. There’s plenty of time for baseball to crush our souls later this year. Enjoy the early hope-filled days of Spring Training while you can. Here is my 2025 Top Prospects List and here now is today’s post.

1. Pitchers and catchers report. What felt like the shortest offseason in baseball history (to me, at least) is over. Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa today in the first step that is the 2025 baseball marathon. Position players will arrive Sunday. Next Friday, the Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game. 33 exhibition games, 162 regular season games, then hopefully a bunch more in October.

“I’m excited about what we’ve put together. We’re more athletic. I feel like we’ve upgraded in a lot of areas that needed to be tended to,” Brian Cashman said during a YES Network interview last week (video). “I think we had a great team last year, but again it was an imperfect team at the same time. We try to bang out the rough edges. I feel like we were able to do that in some cases. Looking forward to seeing hopefully a 2025 version of the Yankees that is a little bit more athletic, a little bit better defensively.”

Aaron Boone’s start of Spring Training press conference is later today (1pm ET on YES) and the start of spring presser does occasionally bring news. Last year we learned that, surprise, Scott Effross had back surgery in December, and would miss half the season. Hopefully we get nothing like that today. Otherwise the start of spring press conference is all about how great everyone looks, how excited they are, etc.

The Yankees have a media tour scheduled for Thursday to showcase the upgrades made to George M. Steinbrenner Field. They’ve got a new building with new player and staff facilities, among other things. Some of the renovations have been in the works a while, others were necessitated by the Rays moving in this season. I’m not in Tampa, so I won’t be on the tour, but I’m sure there will be pictures if you care about this sorta thing.

As for the team itself, obviously the Yankees were unable to trade Marcus Stroman before pitchers and catchers reported. He’s still a Yankee, and it’s fine. No such thing as too much pitching, and what’s the point of trading Stroman anyway? So the Yankees can save a few bucks and afford a scrap heap infielder when payroll’s already $10M south of last year? I think Stroman goes at some point. He just hasn't yet.

Here is the roster as the Yankees enter Spring Training (asterisk means the player is out of options):

Maybe it’s Chisholm at second, Cabrera at third, and Peraza on the bench. Maybe it’s Hamilton in the bullpen and Cousins in Triple-A. It’s Feb. 11th and that roster is very subject to change. That’s just the personnel available to the Yankees right now. The infield could change. The backup catcher situation too. Is it really going to be Jackson? The career 29 wRC+/+2 DRS guy?

In each of the last three seasons the Yankees had at least one player on the Opening Day roster who was not in the organization the day pitchers and catchers reported. Feels like there’s a good chance they make it four straight years this year. Here’s the list:

• 2024: Jahmai Jones (Feb. 28th waiver claim) and Jon Berti (March 27th trade)

• 2023: Franchy Cordero (March 30th signing)

• 2022: Jose Trevino (April 2nd trade)

The Yankees made the Tim Hill signing official over the weekend and Roansy Contreras was waived to clear a 40-man roster spot. I figured Contreras wouldn’t stick around long. The Orioles reclaimed him too. The poor guy has gone from the Angels to the Rangers to the Reds to the Orioles to the Yankees to back to the Orioles on waivers since October. (Maybe the Yankees will reclaim him next week.)

Also, Allan Winans cleared waivers, so he’s still with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee. Winans isn’t great or anything, but he’s a nice Triple-A innings guy and No. 9-10 option on the rotation depth chart. Glad he cleared waivers and is sticking around. Now I hope we don’t see Winans for anything more than a handful of innings in 2025. So it goes with No. 9-10 starters.

Pitchers and catchers report today, and while the start of the new season is exciting, these first few days of Spring Training are pretty boring. Guys play catch, maybe throw bullpens, and that’s really it. Once the games begin next week, things will pick up, but even then Grapefruit League games lose their luster after a while. Still, it’s baseball, and that’s better than no baseball. So long, 2024-25 offseason. You won’t be missed.

2. Two more minor league signings. The Yankees made two minor league contract signings over the weekend and invited the players to Spring Training. Between the two new players and Allan Winans clearing waivers and coming to camp as a non-roster guy, the Yankees are up to 29 NRIs. Here are the original 26 NRIs and here are the two new players.

C Ronaldo Hernández

Once upon a time Hernández was a top 100 prospect with the Rays. That was back in 2019, after he hit .284/.339/.494 (133 wRC+) with 21 homers as a 20-year-old catcher in Low-A. Tampa traded Hernández to the Red Sox for Jeffrey Springs in Spring Training 2021 and his bat has stagnated the last few years, primarily because he chases excessively. He hasn’t appeared on any prospect lists since 2022 or so.

Now 27, Hernández is a .267/.327/.461 (99 wRC+) hitter in over 1,000 Triple-A plate appearances, and he had a hideous 39.0% chase rate at the level with the Diamondbacks last season. Swinging at four out of every 10 pitches outside the strike zone (against Triple-A pitching, no less) is no way to go through life. Hernández has power, his exit velocities are very good, but he gets himself out constantly. He has yet to make his MLB debut.

The defensive scouting report on Hernández says he has a strong arm and is just okay at everything else. I don’t think he’s a serious candidate for the backup catcher’s job. I think he’s a Triple-A guy, and this could mean the Yankees are planning to start Rafael Flores back at Double-A rather than start him in Scranton. Flores played only 65 games in Somerset last year. Not the end of the world if he goes back to Double-A for a few weeks.

LHP Jayvien Sandridge

Sandridge has made the rare pro ball to college to pro ball journey. The Orioles drafted him in 2018, released him during the pandemic in 2020, then he used a loophole to play at Division II Lynn College in 2021. Sandridge signed with the Reds in 2022, then bounced to the Padres and now the Yankees as a minor league free agent. Despite all his travels, Sandridge turns only 26 today.

In 2024, Sandridge had a 4.28 ERA (4.62 FIP) with 33.3 K% and 17.2 BB% in 61 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A with San Diego. Eric Longenhagen had a fresh scouting report last July (here’s video):

Sandridge was throwing pretty hard with the Reds, but he’s taken a leap this year, living in the 95-97 mph range for much of it. He has a drop-and-drive style delivery and a three-quarters arm slot that imparts rise/run action on his heater. Sandridge’s low-80s slider has a long arc and moves so much that Sandridge struggles to locate it where he wants. That issue pervades his entire mix and is standing between him and a big league role in the relatively short-term. He’s had very high walk rates his entire career and that hasn’t subsided with San Diego. The ceiling for Sandridge is like Jake Diekman, where he walks a ton of guys but is so unhittable at other times that it’s not only worth it to roster him, but he’s actually quite good. More likely he ends up in a middle inning role.

Lefties who throw hard and strike out a third of the batters they face at the upper levels are always worth a minor league deal. Sandridge might even be No. 2 on the lefty reliever depth chart behind Tim Hill right now. It’s either him or Brandon Leibrandt, who’s been a starter just about his entire career. I would not be surprised if the Yankees bring in another non-roster lefty at some point*.

The Yankees (and several other teams) have shown a willingness to accept walks in exchange for high octane stuff that generates strikeouts and weak contact, and Sandridge fits. Fellow southpaw Oddanier Mosqueda was this guy for the RailRiders last summer (4.39 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 29.7 K%, 12.5 BB%). Keep rolling the dice on these guys and eventually you’ll run into one who finds the zone and contributes. I hope it’s Sandridge.

* After I wrote this, I saw Chris Cotillo report the Yankees have a minor league deal with lefty Tyler Matzek. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year, allowed 11 runs in 10 innings, then got shutdown with more elbow trouble in May. It ended his season. Matzek, 34, supposed impressed in a recent showcase. Guess I nailed it when I said the Yankees would have one 40-man roster lefty (Tim Hill) and two NRI lefties (Matzek, Sandridge) in camp in my NRI preview.

3. Fallen Top 30 Prospects. Last week I published my annual Top 30 Prospects List (and Not Top 30 Prospects) and 17 of the 30 were holdovers from last year. Just under half the list are new additions. The 13 newbies were not in last year’s Top 30 either because I didn’t consider them Top 30 caliber, or because they weren’t in the organization yet. Here’s what happened to the 13 players they replaced:

• Graduated to MLB (3): RHP Luis Gil, C/1B Ben Rice, C Austin Wells

• Traded (4): IF Keiner Delgado (JT Brubaker), OF John Cruz (Jon Berti), C Agustin Ramirez (Jazz Chisholm Jr.), IF Jared Serna (Chisholm)

• Released (1): RHP Cody Morris

• Five others remain in the organization but fell out of the Top 30.

I explained where those traded prospects would’ve slotted into this year’s Top 30 at the bottom of that post. We’re here to examine those last five prospects and why they fell out of the Top 30, and whether they can make it back onto the list at some point in the future. Let’s dig in now, shall we?

2B Roc Riggio (No. 23 in 2024)

Date of Birth: June 11th, 2002 (age 22)
Acquired: 2023 4th round, No. 129 overall ($693,000 bonus)
2024 Stats: .221/.349/.397 (117 wRC+), 11 HR, 27 SB, 14.8 BB%, 20.2 K% (480 PA at A+)

What went wrong? For a college guy who was age appropriate for High-A, Riggio performance was fine rather than great last year. There is power in his bat (111 mph max exit velocity) and he’s a lefty who looks to pull everything, though he sells out big time to get to that power. There’s stiffness to his swing, and because he swings so hard and looks to yank, Riggio can be beaten on the outer half pretty easily. His glove at second base is okay. Not anything that makes him stand out. The same goes for his speed.

Can he make it back into the Top 30? Yes. Riggio will move up to Double-A Somerset this season and those pitchers will be a good test for him because they’re just better than what he faced in High-A, and will be better able to exploit his aggressiveness and lack of plate coverage. If Riggio performs well in Double-A this year, he’ll be back in the Top 30. I ranked him too high last year. Going from No. 23 in 2024 to off the list in 2025 is a me problem more than a Riggio problem.

RHP Luis Serna (No. 26 in 2024)

Date of Birth: Sept. 20th, 2004 (age 20)
Acquired: Signed May 2021 out of Mexico ($50,000 bonus)
2024 Stats: 6.07 ERA (3.83 FIP), 27.1 K%, 7.9 BB%, 44.3 GB% (69.2 IP in A-)

What went wrong? In terms of his pitching style, Serna is 20 going on 40. His fastball sits around 92 mph and topped out at 94.0 mph in 2024, per Statcast. Serna threw 31% changeups and 23% sliders. It’s a great changeup (come for the changeup GIF, stay for the Robbie Canó cameo) …

… and pitching backwards can be effective, but it’s not good that Serna already has to do it in Low-A. He has no margin of error with his fastball. He’s a smaller guy (5-foot-11 and 162 lbs.) with a shoulder injury history who hasn’t added any velocity the last few years, and doesn’t look to be adding any in the future. You’re in trouble when your fastball allows a .467 xSLG (Low-A average: .363 xSLG on fastballs in 2024).

Can he make it back into the Top 30? I’m not overly optimistic but yeah, sure. A growth spurt and continued training could maybe get Serna’s fastball into the 93-95 mph range, and give him more margin of error and more velocity separation on the changeup. You can’t rule out a 20-year-old getting better. As it stands, Serna is more or less the same guy who signed in 2021. There haven’t been enough gains the last few years.

RHP Jordarlin Mendoza (No. 27 in 2024)

Date of Birth: Nov. 14th, 2003 (age 21)
Acquired: Signed June 2021 out of the Dominican Republic (unknown bonus)
2024 Stats: 3.14 ERA (4.13 FIP), 32.4 K%, 14.9 BB%, 60.6 GB% (14.1 IP in FCL)

What went wrong? The UCL monster came for him. Mendoza blew out last June and had Tommy John surgery, so he’ll miss most or all of 2025. He has a great fastball and a promising slider, though he’s a converted outfielder who has yet to throw consistent strikes, and now his elbow had to be rebuilt. Good arm, poor control, injury history. They roll them off the assembly line like that these days.

Can he make it back into the Top 30? I keep saying there is no such thing as a pitcher aging curve anymore, that guys can get good and stick at any age, so on that basis, yes, Mendoza can return to the Top 30 in the future. He is facing an uphill climb though. By time he gets back on a mound in a non-rehab setting, it’ll be his age 23 season in 2026, and he’s yet to make it out of rookie ball. It’s fair to put Mendoza in the long shot category.

RHP Zach Messinger (No. 29 in 2024)

Date of Birth: Oct. 4th, 1999 (age 25)
Acquired: 2021 13th round, No. 393 overall ($225,000 bonus)
2024 Stats: 3.06 ERA (3.54 FIP), 22.0 K%, 8.4 BB%, 38.9 GB% (150 IP in AA)

What went wrong? Nothing. In fact, Messinger won my Minor League Pitcher of the Year award. He was not quite No. 31 for me as I put together this year's Top 30, he was more like No. 32 or 33, and there isn’t that much of a difference between No. 29 and No. 33. Messinger’s several years older than the guys at the end of the Top 30 and it’s merely good stuff, not eye-popping stuff. The fact he went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft after 150 very good innings in Double-A was telling. Teams don’t see him as someone who can hang in the big leagues all year, at least right now, so I bumped him down a bit.

Can he make it back into the Top 30? In theory, yes, but probably not in reality. Messinger’s stuff has already been optimized and 26-year-olds who lack standout stuff usually don’t crack the Top 30, even after having success at Triple-A (which Messinger has yet to have, but could in 2025). This is more or less the way it goes with these bottom of the Top 30 arms. They’re on the fringe of the Top 30, and some years that means they’re No. 29 and others it means they’re No. 32.

C Antonio Gomez (No. 30 in 2024)

Date of Birth: Nov. 11th, 2001 (age 23)
Acquired: Signed July 2018 out of Venezuela ($600,000 bonus)
2024 Stats: .241/.329/.419 (111 wRC+), 5 HR, 3 SB, 10.8 BB%, 25.7 K% (222 PA at Rk, A-, A+)

What went wrong? Gomez returned from an injury at midseason and had the best offensive season of his career, though there are still serious deficiencies with this pitch recognition, and he sells out for power in a way that makes him hopeless against spin. Gomez still has the cannon arm and good defensive chops, so he has a chance to make it as an up/down third catcher type, but the bat isn’t coming around. Injuries and a lack of reps (he hasn’t had a 400 PA season yet) have stunted Gomez’s offensive development.

Can he make it back into the Top 30? Nah, I think it’s the end of the road, prospect-wise. Which is kinda funny because Gomez could surface as a third catcher at some point because he can throw and frame, though that says more about the standards at the position than it does his outlook as a long-term big leaguer. The Yankees seem to pull a good catching prospect out of thin air each year. Gomez is one who’s stagnating rather than taking steps forward.

4. The latest rule changes. MLB announced a series of rule changes and rule change trials over the last few weeks, and it’s about time we touch on them. There’s nothing significant set to kick in this year, like the pitch clock or automatic runner in extra innings. Just small tweaks for the 2025 regular season. Let’s break it all down now.

ABS challenge system coming to Spring Training

MLB will use the automated strike zone (ABS for automated ball-strike system) challenge system on a trial basis this spring. With the challenge system, a human umpire calls balls and strikes, and each team has two challenges per game it can use to appeal a call to ABS. As with regular old replay challenges, you keep your ABS challenge if it’s successful. Here’s the challenge system in action. It’s pretty quick.

Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) says the challenge system will be used at Statcast parks this spring, and for the Yankees, that’s 27 of their 33 Grapefruit League games. Drellich has this graphic in his article showing the difference between the ABS strike zone and the average human umpire strike zone:

The ABS zone is tighter overall, though exactly how much varies by umpire. The strike zone varies by count too. The strike zone in a 3-0 count is not the same as the strike zone in an 0-2 count. That’s not the way it should be, it’s supposed to be the same zone at all times, but we’ve all seen the 3-0 auto-strike, etc.  Teams absolutely have scouting reports on umpires and game plan around them.

“It was my first experience with it. It was interesting,” Gerrit Cole told Dan Glickman after being exposed to the challenge system during a Triple-A rehab start last year. “… The challenge system, from some of the feedback that I’ve been getting, the edges are really tight, like the top and bottom is very arbitrary. We’re all trying. MLB is trying to make the game better, and so we have the tool and I think it’s just about figuring out how we’re going to use them in the future. But it’s a nice little wrinkle.”

Pitchers, hitters, and catchers can challenge ball/strike calls. I asked around and catchers have the best success rate on challenges by frickin’ far, which makes sense given their vantage point. Pitchers have a low enough success rate that some teams prohibit their pitchers from challenging ball/strike calls in the minors. That will be a delicate balance with big leaguers. Do you tell Cole that, sorry Gerrit, I know you're our ace, but you can’t challenge?

MLB has tested full ABS and the challenge system in the minors the last few years. The league polled players and coaches and 61% prefer the challenge system, according to Anthony Castrovince. Only 11% prefer full ABS. The other 28% want human umpires. The challenge system is on its way to MLB, possibly as soon as the 2026 season. (It definitely won’t be 2025. They’re just testing it in Spring Training.)

I used to be a hardcore roboumps guy, but having seen all three systems in action, the challenge system is my preference. Full ABS is clunky and increased walk rates in every minor league it was used (who wants more walks?). Human umpires make mistakes because they’re human, and challenges give teams a chance to correct them. I’ve softened on this over time. I don’t need 100% accuracy. Fix the most egregious misses, and I’m good. I bet the challenge system will be in place for the 2026 regular season.

Two minor rule changes coming in 2025

Now for rule changes that are actually taking effect and not just being tested in Spring Training. There are two of them this year and both are pretty minor. First, MLB has done away with running through second or third base on a force play. We’ve seen the Yankees attempt it a few times but I can’t remember it ever working for them. Here’s the Cardinals doing it successfully back in 2022.

Basically, if there’s a runner on third with two outs, running through second/third base gives you a better chance to beat out a bang-bang force play. Beat the force and the runner on third scores (as long as he crosses the plate before the tag is applied to runner who runs through second/third). From now on, the runner who runs through second/third is called out for abandoning his base, and the run does not score.

I’m a fan of chaos and this play is definitely chaotic, though it was only a matter of time until someone ran through second/third and leveled an unsuspecting infielder. Here’s Pete Crow-Armstrong nearly sending Ketel Marte into left field. MLB is better off getting out ahead of it and banning this play rather than waiting until there’s a high speed collision and injuries. Farewell, chaos play. We hardly knew you.

The second rule change increases the penalty for shift violations. You’re supposed to have two infielders on each side of second base, and all four infielders must have their feet on the infield dirt when the pitch is delivered. Previously, the penalty was a ball. Now the batter is awarded first base. There were only five shift violations league-wide from 2023-24, but infielders keep pushing the envelope, so MLB acted.

So, two new minor rule changes this season, and they involve plays that happen so infrequently that we won’t even notice the changes. When did runners start running through second/third base? 2022 I think? Force plays at second/third will go back to what they were for almost the entirety of baseball history. The shift violation, well, I’ve never actually seen one of those live, so for all I know they don’t exist.

MLB tests check swing challenge system in AzFL

And finally, MLB tested a check swing challenge system in the Arizona Fall League this past AzFL season. Similar to the ABS challenge system, hitters (and I assume pitchers and catchers) can challenge the human umpire’s check swing call, which are then verified using Statcast’s bat-tracking technology. The same stuff that gives us bat speed and all that.

MLB set the check swing threshold at a 45-degree angle from home plate and that is very extreme. Here’s video of Yankees prospect Garrett Martin challenging a check swing. Here are the screen grabs. This, according to the 45-degree line, was not a swing:

That is awfully extreme! I’m not sure it’s a bad thing either. It is so hard to hit these days. Pitchers have never had nastier stuff, hitters see four different pitchers a night, teams shuttle relievers in and out so much that almost everyone who comes out of the bullpen is rested, etc. Doing something that helps hitters, like giving them more leeway on check swings, could have a positive impact on the game overall.

There is nothing in the rule book about check swings. A swing is defined as “an attempt to strike the ball," and there’s nothing about breaking the plane or any of that stuff announcers like to say. For all intents and purposes, MLB is creating a check swing rule from scratch here. So why not start it at 45 degrees and see what happens? It’s easier to start big and scale it back than going the other way.

The AzFL is MLB’s guinea pig. This is where they first start testing everything. They test it in the AzFL, make adjustments, test it again, and keep going until they’re happy. Then MLB tests it in the minors for a few years. After that, it comes to the big leagues. If we ever do a check swing challenge system in MLB (it’s inevitable, right?), I would bet a shiny nickel it doesn’t have a 45-degree threshold.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. As expected, Enrique Hernández re-signed with the Dodgers, so scratch him off the infield candidates list. It’s a one-year deal. Hernández is stretched as an everyday player at this point in his career. As a bench guy who can play everywhere and start for 3-4 days when someone’s beat up, he’s an ace, but as an everyday guy, no. He was always headed back to LA. Now it’s official … Pete Alonso and the Mets finally kissed and made up. It’s a two-year, $54M deal with an opt out. It’ll pay him $30M in 2025 and $24M in 2026. I would much rather have Alonso on that contract than Paul Goldschmidt on his $12.5M contract, though there’s no reason to think Alonso was available to the Yankees at those terms. Unless the Mets completely closed the door on a reunion and broke off talks, a short-term contract was always more likely to lead Alonso back to Queens than to any other team, including the Yankees. The opt out means we’ll (possibly) do this again next offseason … John Denton says the Cardinals recently reached out to the Yankees (and other teams) about a restructured Nolan Arenado trade. Cardinals position players report Sunday and I’m guessing they want Arenado gone by then, otherwise it will be a distraction. There is always a price where it makes sense, and even soon-to-be 34-year-old Arenado is miles better than what the Yankees have lined up at third base right now (Jazz Chisholm Jr. would move back to second, obviously), but I can’t say I’m thrilled with the idea of acquiring Arenado’s age 34-36 seasons when his defense is slipping (but still very good) and his bat is barely hanging on at league average. Just say no to aging hitters, especially those with three years to go on their contract. The official RAB prediction: Arenado to the Red Sox and Alex Bregman to the Blue Jays. Those are just semi-educated guesses though … And finally, I wrote big thing on the Mookie Betts trade at CBS (Monday was the five-year anniversary). You don't have to read it. Just do me a solid and click the link, leave the tab open for a few minutes, and slowly scroll to the bottom. I wrote it in one sitting, straight through, and had a massive headache when I finished. It felt like I was back in the old "four posts a day" RAB days. Never again, man.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when