January 31st, 2025: Goldschmidt, Infield, Mailbag

Top 30 Prospects list update: It’s a go for next Friday. I have all 30 players written up already. Now I just need to put together an intro, read through it at least twice (during which I will still inevitably miss typos, sorry), and hope the Yankees don’t trade anyone. They had all winter. They can give me this next week. Next Friday’s regularly scheduled post will run Thursday and include my annual Not Top 30 Prospects, then the Top 30 itself will run Friday. Sound good? Here now is today’s post as Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells, and others get to work in Tampa (per Brendan Kuty).

1. Reasons to be optimistic about Goldschmidt. When given the opportunity to upgrade on last year’s disastrous first base production – .216/.284/.335 (76 wRC+) and -1.0 WAR! – the Yankees went with an aging big name this offseason. Paul Goldschmidt, now 37 and coming off his worst season (by a lot), will be tasked with playing the position in 2025, and likely be asked to hit in the middle of the lineup.

“I’m very excited to be part of the franchise and the history they have,” Goldschmidt said during his introductory Zoom call. “… I’ve been pretty fortunate to play with a lot of guys that have spent some time in New York with the Yankees, and I think that stuck out in this process when it started to become time to make a decision. I don’t remember hearing a bad thing about the Yankees. All the players that have played there spoke very highly about everyone in the organization, the city, and the fan base.

When the Yankees signed Goldschmidt, I noted there are a lot of arrows pointing down. He’s swinging and missing more, chasing more, and putting the ball on the ground more. All worrisome signs for a hitter on the wrong side of 35. This is a list the Yankees hope Goldschmidt joins in 2025:

That is every right-handed hitter who had a 100 OPS+ while qualifying for the batting title and playing at least 75% of his games at first base, at age 37 or older. That’s a lot of qualifiers (age, handedness, playing time, etc.), but that’s what the Yankees are asking of Goldschmidt, right? Play first base every day (not DH) at age 37 and be at least a league average hitter. It’s been done 19 times (by seven players) in history.

The Yankees signed Goldschmidt, then soon thereafter Nate Lowe and Josh Naylor were traded for easy to swallow packages, which did not feel too great. Younger and, at this point, better players were available at reasonable prices. There is no unringing the bell though. The Yankees hitched their 2025 first base wagon to Goldschmidt, and I assume Ben Rice is the primary backup plan.

Forget the player who won NL MVP in 2022. The Yankees would be happy with the Goldschmidt who hit .268/.363/.447 (122 wRC+) with 25 homers in 2023. Are there any reasons to believe a productive hitter is still in there? Or are we looking at a player whose game will continue to trend south? Let’s dig into the new Yankees’ first baseman and see what’s what.

He finished last year well, and his contact quality remains great

Goldschmidt’s career worst .245/.302/.414 (100 wRC+) line a year ago was split into .233/.291/.387 (90 wRC+) through July and .273/.325/.475 (120 wRC+) in August and September. It was not a full season slog for him. He started poorly and finished strong, and showed there’s still life in his bat going into the offseason. We saw a productive Goldschmidt late last year. We don’t have to go back to 2023.

Furthermore, Goldschmidt stung the ball all last season. His hard-hit rate (i.e. batted balls with a 95 mph exit velocity) was comfortably above the league average all year.

Anthony Rizzo’s decline came with a dip in hard contact. He simply could no longer drive the baseball. DJ LeMahieu, a sneaky great exit velocity guy earlier in his career, is going through the same thing. Justin Turner too. Their ability to hit the ball hard has declined. It happened with Miguel Cabrera as well An all-time great stopped hitting the ball hard when he got near the end of the line. It’s normal age-related stuff.

Goldschmidt showed us last year that he can still hit the ball hard, which is not a guarantee he will continue to hit the ball hard in 2025, but is encouraging. The hard-hit ability hasn’t vanished yet. He also had a strong finish to 2024. If nothing else, this makes me a little less nervous about Goldschmidt going into 2025. We don’t need to look back far to see the last time he was a productive hitter. It was just last year. At the end of the season too.

He’s really smart, and he made adjustments

Goldschmidt will get Hall of Fame consideration when the time comes. He’s a very smart player who, without giving specifics, said he made adjustments in the middle of last season, leading to his late resurgence. Goldschmidt talked about this late last season too (video). He was very mindful of being an aging player, and not being able to do things the way he did when he was younger.

"I didn't perform my best at all. Like I said, no excuses,” Goldschmidt said during his introductory Zoom call. “But I think learning from that and going through that process of trying to make those adjustments, and I got to a spot in the second half where I played better. I think I can still play at a really, really high level."

Baseball players are stubborn. They don’t like being told they can’t do things the way they’ve always done them. We often see this when pitchers lose velocity and still try to throw fastballs by hitters. Hitters can experience the same thing. This leg kick and that bat size always worked for me and I want to stick with it. That kinda thing. I went through the trouble of making a GIF, but I dunno, I don’t see anything different?

Goldschmidt begins his toe tap a split second earlier, though his foot lands at the same time, so I’m not sure it’s a big deal. Not seeing it with an untrained eye doesn't mean an adjustment didn’t happen though. Goldschmidt is a thoughtful player who admitted his rough first half was a learning process that sent him “going through that process of trying to make those adjustments.”

Ultimately, there are physical limitations, right? Knowing what to do and being able to do it are two different things. I’d like to think Goldschmidt still has enough physical ability in there. You don’t have the career he’s had without being a smart player who adapts to the game around him. This is why the Yankees like to bet on former stars. They know what it takes to be great, and that’s not a small thing.

Yankee Stadium > Busch Stadium

Particularly for a right-handed hitter who hits the ball in the air to right field as often as Goldschmidt. His 25.9% opposite field rate was a top 30 mark among right-handed hitters in 2024, and only 27.9% of his opposite field batted balls were on the ground. Here are Goldschmidt’s 2024 fly balls and line drives:

The Cardinals came to Yankee Stadium last August and Goldschmidt went 7-for-13 (.539) with four doubles in the three games, including this wall ball. One of his outs was a warning track job to right too. Even as a right-handed hitter, there is every reason to believe Goldschmidt will benefit from the short porch. He’s always used the entire field and hit with power to right.

Yankee Stadium and Busch Stadium are opposites. Yankee Stadium is great for homers and not so good for all other hits. Busch Stadium is bad for homers and good for all other hits. Goldschmidt’s production, at least at home, may take a new shape. It might be more of a low AVG/high SLG thing, and that’s fine. The Yankees did not have much power beyond Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton last year. A first baseman who can hit the ball over the fence will be welcome. The Yankees lacked one in 2024.

He might not play every single day

I’m not sure what the Yankees intend to do with their load management schedule this season. They threw it out the window last year and played their guys as much as possible, but for years, the Yankees had a strict rest schedule, and they stuck to it. It could get annoying – do you really need to sit that guy after he went 3-for-4 with a homer last night? – though they did it with good intentions.

Goldschmidt has been extremely durable throughout his career. He’s started at least 150 games every full season since 2015. But, the older you are, the more time you need to rest and recover, so maybe this year the target is 140 starts, or even 130 starts. Is this anything?

• Game after an off-day: .252/.313/.513 with 8.4 BB% and 23.7 K% (131 PA)

• All other games: .244/.296/.390 with 6.9 BB% and 27.2 K% (523 PA)

Goldschmidt had 30 days off last year between scheduled off-days, rest days, rainouts, etc. In the 30 games immediately after an off-day, he added 123 SLG points and 140 OPS points. This could be small sample size noise, though 11 of those 30 came in the Cardinals’ final 47 games of the season. 37% of his rest days came in the final 23% of the season. It lines up with his great August and September. Hmmm. HMMM.

At age 37, maybe Goldschmidt shouldn’t be a 150 starts a year player. Maybe he should start only three out of every four games at this point in his career. Goldschmidt hit .230/.280/.395 (88 wRC+) with 29.8 K% against righties last season. When the opposing starter is a tough, hard-throwing righty, it will be a good day to put Goldschmidt on the bench, Cody Bellinger at first base, and Trent Grisham in center. 

Less could be more at this point in Goldschmidt’s career. We all like a set lineup, and these guys want to post up every day, but there comes a point when the best version of a player requires a little more rest. Goldschmidt’s played a lot of baseball and for much of his career the NL did not have a DH. Getting him off his feet more often this summer could be an important step in keeping Goldschmidt productive.

* * *

I might be grasping at straws with some of this – DJ LeMahieu hit .266/.365/.434 (124 wRC+) in August and September in 2023, and how’d that go in 2024? – but sometimes that’s what you have to do with an aging player in the middle of a multi-year decline. Goldschmidt hit the ball hard last year, he finished the season well, Yankee Stadium suits him nicely, and he’s a smart hitter who could benefit from a little more rest.

The bar at first base was set so low last season that it shouldn’t be too difficult for Goldschmidt to be an upgrade. The question is will he be a small upgrade, or a big one? The Yankees kinda need him to be a big upgrade, right? They need more than small bites to get over the hump and win the World Series. The Yankees have gotten some great out of nowhere performances from aging veterans in the past. They could really use one from Goldschmidt in 2025.

2. Devil’s advocate: The Yankees don’t need another infielder. I can’t believe it hasn’t happened yet, but I expect the Yankees to add a second or third baseman before Spring Training. Maybe I should adjust that to before Opening Day? Either way, the Yankees currently have an open infield spot, and I do not believe the player who will start the season at that position is in the organization right now.

What if the Yankees don’t bring another infielder though? I think that would be a mistake, but in the name of being a full service blog, let’s look at things from the other side of the coin and dig into why the Yankees don’t need to bring in another infielder. When Gerrit Cole got hurt last spring, I thought the Yankees should sign Blake Snell, but they didn’t, and Luis Gil won AL Rookie of the Year. Sometimes not adding a player works.

With that in mind, let’s play devil’s advocate and explain why the Yankees don’t need to add an infielder, and would be better off staying in house at second or third base. (I did this same exercise for left field going into 2023, and the result was -1.6 WAR, so yeah.)

Cabrera hit righties well last year, you know

Maybe “well” is a stretch, but Oswaldo Cabrera did hit .268/.320/.409 (107 wRC+) against righties in 2024. It wasn’t a BABIP fluke either. He had a .297 BABIP and .271 xAVG against righties, and a .317 wOBA vs. a .311 xwOBA. Cabrera put up strong contact and line drive rates against righties. The heat maps:

Cabrera won’t light up Statcast with big exit velocities. His thing is poking line drives over the infielder’s head, and he has a knack for hooking the ball down the right line for doubles (and the occasional ultra-cheap homer). I’d take a 107 wRC+ against righties from second/third, wouldn’t you?

The left side of the plate is Cabrera’s strong side, so much so that he took a handful of left-on-left at-bats last year (17, to be exact). Give him favorable matchups and put him on his most comfortable side of the plate more often, and Cabrera could be a nifty platoon option. He gets the bat on the ball against righties and does enough extra-base damage to keep pitchers honest.

It’s now or never for Peraza

Not too long ago Oswald Peraza was one of the top prospects in the system, and it’s now or never for him. He’s out of minor league options, so if he doesn’t stick with the MLB team, he has to go on waivers before he can be assigned to Triple-A. Chances are some team (Marlins? Pirates?) will claim him. The Yankees don’t want to lose a once touted prospect without giving him a look, do they?

Still only 24, Peraza didn’t exactly dominate Triple-A last year (.243/.341/.394 and 94 wRC+), though he did put up a .250/.375/.513 line against lefties. Peraza and Cabrera could form a sneaky good platoon. Maybe even as good as +2 WAR given Peraza’s stellar glove. Yeah, you’re using two roster spots to get that +2 WAR, but when the alternatives are Paul DeJong and Jorge Polanco, that ain’t so bad. Point is, this is the Yankees’ last chance to see what they have in Peraza. There’s no kicking the can down the road any longer.

LeMahieu (or Vivas) might surprise you

You never know, right? DJ LeMahieu was horrible last season (7 XBH and 13 GIDP!) and I can’t say I expect him to contribute much this season, but dead cat bounces happen. Matt Carpenter hit .203/.325/.346 (86 wRC+) in close to 1,000 plate appearances from 2019-21, then he gave the Yankees a few Barry Bonds-like months in 2022. If you don’t give players a chance to surprise you, they never will.

“DJ has been an amazing hitter. He’s just been hurt,” Aaron Boone said during a radio interview earlier this week. “Hopefully with some health, some of that bat can return because he can still really defend. Whether it’s on an everyday level or if it’s against (a lefty), I do think there’s a role for him.”

I’m going to lump Jorbit Vivas in here too because he’s been an afterthought in this infield conversation. He hit an unimpressive .225/.348/.358 (92 wRC+) in Triple-A last season, but did have strong plate discipline indicators (13.8 BB% and 16.7 K%), and he had two fluke injuries early on. Vivas broke an orbital bone during a freak workout accident, then suffered a concussion on a hit-by-pitch in his second game back. He was playing catch-up all year.

Maybe it’s not LeMahieu who does the surprising but instead Vivas, a 23-year-old high contact lefty who at least one publication saw as a fringe top 100 prospect type at this time last year. Gil went from afterthought last spring to replacing Cole and making a big impact. Why can’t Vivas do the same? Why can’t LeMahieu give the Yankees league average-ish production for a few weeks? I wouldn't call it likely, but I definitely wouldn't call it impossible.

Because if it doesn’t work, maybe they’ll finally learn

The Yankees went into 2023 without a left fielder, started nine different players there, and got an MLB worst -1.6 WAR from the position. They went into 2024 without a third baseman, then got some of the worst third base production in the league before trading for Jazz Chisholm Jr. Chisholm wasn’t even supposed to be the third baseman! He took a few ground balls at third before a game one afternoon, then the Yankees did the Drake GIF.

Forget about going above and beyond like they did with the Mark Teixeira signing. Those days are over. The Yankees don’t even go into the season with a complete roster now. No left fielder in 2023, and it blew up on them. No third baseman in 2024, and it was in the process of blowing up on them until Chisholm showed up. Now they’re a few weeks away from going into 2025 without a second or third baseman.

Maybe, for the greater good, this needs to blow up on the Yankees. They didn’t learn with left field in 2023 and they didn’t learn with third base in 2024. Maybe the third time is a charm – or it’s the third strike and this approach is out? – and they stop half-assing things on the margins of the roster, and come to understand they need to build complete rosters in the offseason and not go into the season with an unanswered question.

* * *

I will say again that I think it would be a mistake to go into 2025 with the current second/third base group. I think the Yankees need to add someone. Squint your eyes though, and they have infield candidates. Young candidates too. LeMahieu is 36 now, but Vivas is 23, Peraza is 24, and Cabrera is 25. It’s not unreasonable to think one of the youngins could emerge and outperform the DeJongs and Polancos of the world. And if it doesn’t work, maybe the Yankees will learn they should stop going into the season with an unfinished roster.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Ha-Seong Kim is off the board. Two years and $29M with an opt out to the Rays. If the Yankees had given him that contract, their luxury tax payroll would be $1.3M higher than last year’s, and we can’t have that. I don’t even love Kim because a defense-first guy coming off major throwing shoulder surgery is pretty risky, but the Yankees currently have two kids in a trench coat lined up to play second base. Maybe the Rays will make Brandon Lowe available now? Then the Yankees can miss out on him too … Jorge Castillo has a piece up just kinda reviewing the offseason, and in it Brian Cashman admits "the defense was a real problem on our roster, we had a bad defensive team (last year)." That's refreshing. Nice to hear someone with the Yankees acknowledge they were bad defensively after Aaron Boone spent the offseason responded to questions about the defense with what amounted to "our defense was good, actually" … And finally, during a radio interview earlier this week, Boone said Cody Bellinger will likely play center field with Jasson Domínguez in left. The Yankees want to keep Domínguez in one spot, and are more comfortable moving Bellinger around as needed (first base, right field, etc.). I guess they don’t want to play Trent Grisham in left or right while Domínguez stays in center? This is (probably) fine. Domínguez is a likely long-term left fielder anyway, and I would rather not make the rookie’s life harder by moving him between positions. Keep him in one spot. Also, this leaves the center field door open long-term for Spencer Jones, who is Domínguez’s superior defensively. Of course, Jones needs to stop striking out close to 40% of the time before we worry about where he plays down the road.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Bill asks: Here is a very simple question, Mike. Do you think the Yankees are better heading into spring training this year than they were last year ? My vote is a definite no.

In a YES interview earlier this week (video), Hal Steinbrenner said he thinks the Yankees are a better team now than were last year. What else is the owner gonna say on the team-owned network? I recommend not giving the entire interview a listen unless you want to get aggravated. The whole “we’ll see if it pays off for them” response to the Dodgers was particularly rich. He does remember who won the World Series, yes?

ANYWAY, no, I do not think the Yankees are a better team right now than they were last year. Juan Soto is a transformation presence, a player whose value transcends WAR, and he’s gone. So many nights last year the difference was the Yankees had Soto and Aaron Judge, and the other team did not. That dynamic is gone. There is no replacing Soto’s production and presence, even across multiple roster spots.

The Yankees are clearly a top six team in the AL and maybe still the best team in the AL period. I think they’ll be more well-rounded, for sure. They’ll be better defensively, particularly in the outfield and at first base, and they’ll be better on the bases too. More well-rounded doesn’t necessarily mean better though. The Yankees are short an infielder and I know better than to count on their young homegrown hitters to hit right away.

If Judge gets hurt, the jig is up. It’s a bottom 10 offense without him. What happens if Judge goes from 58 home runs and a 218 wRC+ (lol) to 47 homers and a 170 wRC+? That’s an amazing season and also a pretty huge step down. Even a little slippage from Judge will hurt. The Yankees really need Cody Bellinger to abuse the short porch and be a 30-homer, 140 wRC+ bat. It’s a lot to ask.

After Soto signed with the Mets, I liked everything the Yankees did up until it came time to fill out the infield. They did the bare minimum at first base (reclamation project veteran) and even less than that at second or third base. Max Fried and Devin Williams are nice pitching upgrades. The Yankees are built to win games when they score only three runs more than they are games when they allow five runs.

I see the Yankees as a likely top five run prevention team and a middle of the pack offensive team. Maybe Judge has another “the best ever season by a right-handed hitter” year in him and drags the Yankees into the top five offensively. That would rule. On paper, they’re probably an 89-90 win true talent team, and in the watered-down AL, that could equal 95 wins and a division title. All the great teams are in the NL.

To me, the 2024 Yankees are the 2022 Yankees 2.0. It’s a great pitching staff, the best hitter in the world, then a few okay hitters and not great depth. Going from Soto to Bellinger and Gleyber Torres to no one in particular are much larger steps down than the step up from the 2024 first basemen to Paul Goldschmidt, and Nestor Cortes/Clay Holmes to Fried/Williams. The Yankees are really good. Just not as good as last year’s version. 

Several asked: How can the Yankees get Mike King back?

Earlier this week Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported King is among the starters who “remain in play” on the trade market. I take that to mean the Padres are willing to listen the same way every team is willing to listen on their players, though they don’t necessarily want to move him. The Padres apparently need to cut payroll to make moves though, and they have holes up and down the roster (left field, bench, back of the rotation, etc.). Trading King frees up some cash and would bring multiple cheap pieces in return.

How about this: Luis Gil for King. The Padres get a good starter and Gil’s league minimum salary in 2024, plus three more cheap years of control beyond that. The Yankees get one year of King, who it’s reasonable to believe will be a better pitcher than Gil in 2025. I mean, King was better than Gil in 2024, not that Gil was bad. It’s a relatively small upgrade for the Yankees, right? ZiPS has Gil at +1.5 WAR in 2025 and King at +3.4. Is it worth giving up three additional years of Gil to get an additional two projected wins in 2025?

Maybe it is! The AL East race figures to be tight, so every additional win matters, plus King could have a much greater impact in October. If he’s not in your postseason rotation, then you can easily slot him into the bullpen (where he has plenty of experience) as a multi-inning high leverage reliever. Barring a full-fledged breakout in 2025, it’s hard to see Gil assuming such a prominent role in the postseason, and that’s the goal here. Win the World Series. Additional postseason value matters.

The Yankees reportedly would not trade Gil for one year of Kyle Tucker, so it stands to reason they wouldn’t trade him for one year of King. The Yankees know King though, and they love him. They didn’t want to trade him last offseason. They did it because it was the only way to get Juan Soto. The Yankees might be more willing to give up Gil for King because there's familiarity with King and how he fits in their clubhouse, what his work ethic is like, etc. Tucker was an unknown. King is very well known.

You’re not gonna get King for Everson Pereira and Will Warren. Even one year of him is very valuable. If the Padres asked for Gil and Austin Wells, I’d understand. I wouldn’t do it, but I’d understand. San Diego will presumably seek players who can step right into their big league roster in a King trade (similar to what the Brewers got in the Corbin Burnes trade), and I don’t think the Yankees have the trade chips to swing that. Not unless they trade Jasson Domínguez. King rules, but I don’t see a path to a reunion right now.

(Self-promotion: I wrote a thing ranking the 30 teams as a potential landing spot for King at CBS.)

As for other pricey Padres who could interest the Yankees, it’s really just Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, and closer Robert Suarez. Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado are all in their 30s and have way too much money coming their way, and I doubt the Padres will move Fernando Tatis Jr. Suarez has three years and $26M left on his deal (with an opt out after 2025). Honestly, I would just take Arraez and stick him at second base. Even with his flaws, he’s the best second/third baseman available to the Yankees.

Rob asks: Crazy question, I'm sure the odds are slim to none here, but let's say the Yankees go to Judge, Cole, and Stanton to restructure the contracts with deferrals a la Dodgers. Could the Yankees do that to change their payroll numbers to compete with their financial might? Surprised to see the Yanks not push for more deferrals with Hal using the luxury tax threshold as a salary cap since he took the reins.

Restructuring contracts is allowed. The player has to agree to it, which can be an obstacle, and the MLBPA will push back on anything that lowers the contract value. That’s the much larger obstacle and why the Alex Rodriguez to the Red Sox trade fell apart. A-Rod agreed to restructure his contract, including accepting deferrals, but the union said no because it lowered the contract value too much. 

Let’s use Gerrit Cole as an example. He’s already made a fortune in his career, so let’s say he agrees to defer $20M of his $36M annual salary over the next four years to help the Yankees make other moves. The deferrals kick in the year after his contract expires. Assuming I used the FanGraphs calculator correctly, I get these numbers for new Cole’s contract:

• 2025-28: $16M annual salary ($32.8M luxury tax hit)

• 2029-32: $20M annual deferred salary payment ($0 luxury tax hit)

Deferring $20M a year lowers Cole’s luxury tax hit from $36M to $32.8M, which ain’t much. It’s such a short deferral period (only four years) that it doesn’t change the present day value significantly. Four years at $36M per year equals $144M total. The deferrals lower the present day value to $131.2M, so the MLBPA will want to know how the Yankees will make up the $12.8M. That’s why the A-Rod trade fell apart.

Keep in mind the CBA says teams must fund deferrals within two years of when they were originally scheduled to be paid out. You don’t just get to defer money and then figure out how to pay it later. For our Cole example, the Yankees would have to set aside $20M for the 2025 deferrals no later than 2027. That’s real money that has to sit in an account somewhere, and can’t be touched (but can collect interest).

Yes, the Yankees could approach Cole and Aaron Judge and whoever else about restructuring their contracts in a way that lowers the luxury tax hit. Getting them to agree to it is one thing. Getting the union to okay it is another. It would be much, much easier to start giving out deferrals moving forward, and lowering the luxury tax hit that way, than it would be to restructure existing contracts.

(Payroll is currently $13M or so below last year’s number. Why should a player restructure his contract to help the team afford more players when the owner is pocketing every cent of postseason revenue?)

Kevin asks: Could the Yanks trade Goldschmidt if they worked out something with Alonso or is there a restriction?

Free agents who sign a Major League contract get an automatic full no-trade clause until June 15th of the coming season. The Yankees did not give Paul Goldschmidt any no-trade protection, but they can’t trade him until June 15th without his consent. Many years ago the Yankees tried to work out a sign-and-trade with Grant Balfour because they didn’t want to forfeit their first round pick to sign him. The idea was a team with a protected first rounder (per the rules at the time) would sign Balfour, then trade him to the Yankees for a prospect equivalent to the lower draft pick they forfeited to sign him. The sign-and-trade never happened, but Balfour would have had to agree to it because of the June 15th rule. Maybe Goldschmidt would be open to it, and the Yankees could work with him to find a new team, but they couldn’t just trade him. The June 15th rule exists so free agents don’t have to worry about getting shipped off elsewhere soon after signing.

Eric asks: I read your post about starting pitching depth and didn’t bat an eye but once the Baseball America top 30 came out I saw Clayton Beeter and realized he wasn’t on your list. Do you think he’s just destined for the pen or did you totally forget about him like I did? (I totally swore he got TJS but he got called up in September)

Beeter had a shoulder injury last year, not Tommy John surgery. He came back as a reliever late in the season and got a few innings with the Yankees in September. I didn’t forget about him last week. I think he’s a reliever now. The winds have been blowing in that direction the last two years, and, at the Winter Meetings, Aaron Boone mentioned him by name when asked about relievers who could emerge in 2025. “Clayton Beeter, what he did at the back half of the year coming out of the bullpen in the minor leagues and then get a little bit of a taste in the big leagues, he's one guy that we're excited about that we feel like could potentially carve out a significant role,” Boone said in December. Beeter is 26 now, he’s essentially a two-pitch guy, and he has an injury history that goes back to college. It’s bullpen time for him.

Gregg asks: Can you please explain pitch modeling. For example, you mentioned in a post that the pitch models love Brandon Leibrandt's change-up. In general, what does that mean.

Pitch models are an algorithm that takes a pitch's traits (velocity, spin, movement, release point, etc.) and essentially give it a grade. Stuff+ is the most popular public pitch model. Luke Weaver's four-seamer graded out as a 142 Stuff+ last year, meaning it was 42% better than the average fastball. Teams have their own propriety pitch models and they are complex. They don't just tell you Weaver has a great fastball. They tell you Weaver's fastball is most effective in this part of the strike zone against righties and that part of the strike zone against lefties, or that Gerrit Cole's cutter works best when he sequences it off a fastball rather than a slider (that's a made up example). So when I say the pitch models love Leibrandt's changeup, it means the analytics say the pitch has strong traits and should be effective.

Mike asks: In the mailbag the other day you posted the projected starting rotations for each of the Yankee farm teams and I couldn't help but notice that the majority of the pitchers were obtained through the draft with no international free agents at any level other than Low-A. Even the upper level arms that were traded recently were obtained through the draft (ex. Thorpe, Fitts, Neely). Is this the result of the Yankees focusing on bats in international free agency? Even if that is the focus, the Yankees have done quite well with coaching up mid-level pitching prospects from the draft. Do they lack this same ability with international players due to the players still being more projectable physically and/or less analytical data being available prior to their acquisition?

The lack of international pitchers isn’t limited to the Yankees. Across the league, a small percentage of pitchers were originally signed as international amateurs. Here’s the 2024 pitching WAR leaderboard. Only five of the top 25 and nine of the top 50 are international players: Ronel Blanco, Emmanuel Clase, Luis Gil, Raisel Iglesias, Shota Imanaga, Reynaldo López, Luis Ortiz, Christopher Sánchez, and Framber Valdez. Imanaga played eight years in Japan and Iglesias pitched professionally in Cuba for a few years. They weren’t originally signed as “amateurs.” My unofficial math says 80% of innings were thrown by drafted pitchers in 2024. The other 20% signed internationally. For hitters, it’s only 69% of plate appearances by drafted players.

Chad Jennings and Andy McCullough (subs. req’d) spoke to people in the game about the lack of Latin American pitchers last June. It seems the biggest reason is money. Teams do not give international amateur pitchers big money – there were 35 $1M bonuses during the 2024 signing period, and all 35 went to position players – because there’s so much inherent injury risk, so being a position player is the best way to get paid. Nelson Cruz said there’s a culture aspect too. Players want to play shortstop and center field because those are the positions their idols played. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone wants to be a shortstop or center fielder because that’s what the guys who came before them played.

Gil did just come out of the farm system and win Rookie of the Year. The Yankees did not originally sign him out of the Dominican Republic, but he was so early in his career when they got him in a trade that he might as well have been an international signing. The same goes for Domingo Germán. Luis Severino was their best starter for a few years. Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez gave the Yankees innings, then were important trade chips. They’ve had their share of homegrown Latin American pitchers in recent years.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) released their 2025 top 100 prospects list last week and there are only two internationally signed pitchers on the list: Roki Sasaki and Nationals righty Jarlin Susana. That’s out of 29 total pitchers. And it doesn’t have to do with a lack of data either. All the academies and showcase events are outfitted with Trackman. The lack of international pitching prospects is not limited to the Yankees. It’s systemic. The system and culture push Latin American players to be hitters.

Samuel asks: There’s a lot of talk about how many inches of movement or break a pitch has or a pitcher typically has. Which got me thinking about the reverse. Meaning, has anyone thrown a perfectly straight pitch? And which pitcher has success on their fastball with the least amount of movement?

Since launching in 2015, Statcast has recorded 210 perfectly straight pitches, meaning zero inches of horizontal movement and zero inches of vertical movement. All 210 came in the same game. The 2021 Little League Classic between the Angels and Guardians. So, clearly, those are all data errors, and there has never been a perfectly straight pitch in the Statcast era. Perfectly straight is physically impossible anyway because gravity acts on the ball, plus there’s usually some degree of breeze or wind.

In 2024, three pitchers had a four-seam fastball that averaged 0.1 inches of horizontal movement and 0.1 inches of vertical movement: Max Fried, Clayton Kershaw, and Andre Pallante. Kershaw’s fastball got hit pretty hard (-6 run value) in his limited action, though Fried’s (+3) and Pallante’s (+8) were very effective. That’s a reminder that location and sequencing matter. The four-seamer was Fried’s most used pitch last year at only 34%. His wide arsenal helps him overcome a straight fastball.

Earlier this week I noted Matt Blake said the Yankees have a few ideas to help Fried “tighten the screws” on his arsenal, and I wondered if that included scaling back on the four-seamer and emphasizing the sinker (that was just a guess on my part). Clearly, Fried is a very good pitcher even with a fastball that lacks standout movement traits. Straight is generally bad though. The less a pitch moves, the easier it is to hit.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)