January 14th, 2025: Domínguez, Infield, Stroman, Bullpen, Shields

13 years and one day ago, the Yankees traded Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda and signed Hiroki Kuroda (the first time) in the span of about 50 minutes. The rotation went from questionable to rock solid in less than an hour, at least until Pineda hurt his shoulder in Spring Training and needed surgery. Kuroda was a stud. Everyone loved that guy. Neither team won the Montero/Pineda trade. I like to say the Yankees lost it less. Pineda threw 509 innings with +6.2 WAR as a Yankee. Montero played 208 games with -1.0 WAR with the Mariners. Montero was ranked as Baseball America’s No. 6 overall prospect at the time of the trade. Only two of Baseball America's top 10 prospects have been traded since then (traded while still ranked as a top 10 prospect, I mean): Wil Myers in the James Shields trade and Yoán Moncada in the Chris Sale trade. Usually I say “13 years ago? it feels like this happened last week,” but in this case, the Montero/Pineda trade feels like it was 13,000 years ago. So, so much baseball has been played since then. Here's what I wrote quickly about Roki Sasaki turning the Yankees down, and here is today’s post.

1. It’s been a busy offseason and it didn’t fully set in with me until a week or so ago that Jasson Domínguez is likely to be an everyday player to begin 2025, and that’s exciting. It’s not set in stone, the Yankees could put Trent Grisham in center and Cody Bellinger in left if they don’t think Domínguez is ready, but signs point to a starting spot being Domínguez’s to lose. El Marciano’s brief big league stint didn’t go well last year, and the outfield misplays are the kinda thing that will make folks uncomfortable with his defense basically forever (like how Alex Rodriguez dropping two popups in one series turned into “A-Rod doesn’t like popups” the rest of his career), but he’s talented with a chance to be a real difference-maker. I would sign up for this rookie year production:

• ZiPS: .254/.324/.420 (108 OPS+) with 16 HR and +1.8 WAR

• Steamer: .249/.326/.418 (112 wRC+) with 18 HR and +2.2 WAR

Aaron Boone made an appearance on MLB Network last week (video) and said the Yankees haven’t made any final decisions with their outfield alignment yet, and of course he’s going to say that in January. My guess is the Yankees have a preference though, and I don’t know if that’s Domínguez in left and Cody Bellinger in center, or Bellinger in left and Domínguez in center. They should probably just put the rookie in his most familiar position (center field), no? Make things as easy as possible for the first year player. No matter where he plays, the Yankees have given their top prospect a clear path to an everyday job. I know they’ve had trouble getting young players to hit at the MLB level, believe me I know, but I’m still looking forward to a full season of Domínguez. If you can’t get excited about top prospects in January, then what’s the point? Also, now that Gleyber Torres is gone, maybe Domínguez will switch from No. 89 to No. 25? His parents named him after Jason Giambi, their favorite player. Wearing No. 25 would bring things full circle.

2. Jon Heyman added Paul DeJong’s name to the list of scrap heap infielders the Yankees are considering. He joins Jorge Polanco and Brendan Rodgers (and probably others). Still somehow only 31, DeJong slugged 24 homers with the White Sox and Royals last year, though they came with a .276 OBP and the worst defensive numbers of his career. He has a .268 OBP in his last 1,500 plate appearances and there’s almost no level of defense that makes that okay. This is how I would rank the scrap heap infield options:

1. Jorge Polanco: Above average player as recently as 2023, could be better with a healthy knee.

(gap)

2. Brendan Rodgers: Only 28, underlying numbers point to an okay hitter if you can get him to elevate.
3. Yoan Moncada: At age 30, maybe you run into his career year if he can stay healthy.
4. Jose Iglesias: Still a good enough defender and contact hitter. Great vibes guy.

(gap)

5. Paul DeJong: Low-OBP righty hitter who routinely runs a 30+ K%. Yuck.

DeJong is right around where I would rather the Yankees just play Oswald Peraza, and I’m not normally a “play the prospect! he can’t be worse!” guy. It’s one thing to bury Peraza behind Josh Donaldson, who you owe big money. It would be another to play DeJong over him. That would be the ultimate “yeah, the Yankees don’t believe in Peraza at all” move. And to be clear, I would have no problem with the Yankees giving DeJong a minor league deal and seeing what happens in Spring Training, but you can’t guarantee that guy a roster spot and a starting job. There’s a reason he had to take a one-year, $1.75M deal from the White Sox last offseason. The Yankees will bring in an infielder before Spring Training. There’s not a doubt in my mind. If it’s not a bona fide starting caliber player, it’ll be someone to at least compete with the in-house guys and provide depth. There’s no chance – zero – the Yankees view Peraza as an unquestioned starter.

3. One thing I do not like, and we often hear it this time of year, is the “find a stopgap and see what shakes loose at the trade deadline” mentality. The three Wild Card spots have changed the deadline. Many more teams are in the race and there are fewer sellers. Not only are there fewer players available, but there are also more teams competing for those players. The help you need is not guaranteed to be there at the trade deadline, and, even if it is, you might not be able to win that bidding war. Also, the four months before the deadline count. That’s an awful lot of games to play with a subpar roster because you don’t want to pay the price in the offseason. It’s enough games to cost you a division race or Wild Card pot. To me, you should build the best possible roster in the offseason, then use the trade deadline to plug any holes that pop up during the season (due to injury, underperformance, etc.) and get pieces who can help put you over the top. Declining to act now because something better might come along later is no way to build a contending roster.

4. I fully expect the Yankees to trade Marcus Stroman. There’s just too much noise about their willingness to move him (and willingness to eat money to do it) for me to think it won’t happen. I don’t know when it’ll happen, could be next week or two months from now, but I expect it to happen before Opening Day. Like it or not, the Yankees seem determined to cut payroll, and Stroman is an overpaid sixth starter. They’re the Yankees, they can afford to overpay a sixth starter, especially when their starting five carries so much injury risk, but trading Stroman is the most straightforward way to cut payroll. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection and pitching is always in demand, so there will be teams willing to take him. The Yankees will have to eat money to make a trade happen ($5M? $10M? I dunno) and I think they’ll get something useful in return. Not a top prospect or anything. Maybe an up/down reliever, something like that. It just feels like there’s no way Stroman makes it to Opening Day with the Yankees. I’d bet against him making it to Spring Training at this point.

5. Assuming the Yankees do trade Marcus Stroman, bringing in a replacement depth starter seems like a good idea, if not a necessity. I mean, adding pitching depth is never a bad idea, but trading Stroman after trading Nestor Cortes (and Cody Poteet) would leave the rotation depth chart pretty thinned out beyond the top five:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Max Fried
3. LHP Carlos Rodón
4. RHP Luis Gil
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt
6. RHP JT Brubaker
7. RHP Will Warren
8. RHP Yoendrys Gómez?

Rodón and Schmidt have long injury histories, Gil set a new career high by 51 innings in 2024, Brubaker hasn’t been healthy in two years, etc. There’s risk there and the Yankees should protect themselves. From 2021-24, the Yankees received 123, 133, 116, and 147 starts from their top five starters (top five by games started, not talent). That’s an average of 32 starts a year from guys outside the top five. I’m not telling you something you don’t already know. A solid sixth starter is a necessity, not a luxury. “Find the next Poteet” would be the ideal post-Stroman trade move, but a) I have no idea who that pitcher is, and b) it’s much easier said than done. I guess the point is, if/when the Yankees trade Stroman, I hope they bring in a cheaper depth arm to replace him (Joey Lucchesi on a minor league deal?). I would rather the Yankees have too much pitching and not need it than need it and not have it.

6. The free agent bullpen market is finally moving. Within the last week or so Jeff Hoffman went to the Blue Jays, Andrew Kittredge went to the Orioles (after their deal with Hoffman fell apart), Chris Martin went to the Rangers, Caleb Ferguson went to the Pirates, and Jorge López went to the Nationals. Tanner Scott remains available and I would be stunned if the Yankees sign him. Devin Williams was their big bullpen addition. They’re not gonna sink 3-4 years at $13M+ a pop into a reliever, even one as good as Scott. The Yankees still need a lefty reliever, and I still wonder about a Tommy Kahnle reunion given their changeup/splitter kick. He fits that perfectly. It won’t happen, but man, I’d love a David Robertson reunion. He would be a great No. 3 high leverage guy behind Williams and Luke Weaver. Reports about mutual interest in a Tim Hill reunion have been constant all offseason, and we recently heard the Yankees connected to Andrew Chafin. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says the Yankees are among the teams that have checked in on Brooks Raley, though he had Tommy John surgery in May, so he would be a second half piece. In the three-batter minimum era, left-on-left guys aren’t as important as they once were, though it would be nice to have that look in the bullpen. There are eight bullpen spots on the roster. Might as well use one on a lefty who can make lefties uncomfortable, you know? Point is, the bullpen market is beginning to move, which could push the Yankees to bring in that lefty sooner rather than later, whoever it ends up being.

7. I don’t want to keep beating this dead horse, but man, it does not sit well with me that payroll is set to come down after a pennant. There is no baseball reason for it. The Dodgers lost the 2017 World Series and then cut close to $60M (!) off payroll in 2018. That got them under the luxury tax threshold. They reset their tax rates, made sure their first round pick wouldn’t move back 10 spots, and put themselves in the more favorable compensation bucket for qualified free agents. The Dodgers could at least point to the non-monetary benefits of a payroll cut that large. The Yankees can't do that. With a $301M-ish payroll, they will still be subject to the highest luxury tax rates as a repeat offender, their 2026 first round pick will still move back 10 spots, and they’ll still be hit with the worst penalties if they sign a qualified free agent next offseason. All they’re doing is saving money. Money that could be spent on improving the team will instead be pocketed. It’s a cash grab by ownership, full stop. Unless you believe the Yankees lost money in 2024, not one penny of the World Series revenue is being put back into the team. Meanwhile, we’re sitting here talking about trading a serviceable depth starter to afford a scrap heap infielder. How disappointing.

8. Two weeks ago I mentioned it was around this time last offseason that the Yankees went on their waiver claim spree. They haven’t made any claims yet this month, though it’s still early, so give them time. I thought the Yankees might claim René Pinto last week and add him to the backup catcher competition, but the Diamondbacks claimed him first. He didn’t get to the Yankees. Another player possibly of interest: Livan Soto. The Orioles DFAed him Friday. The poor guy has bounced around a lot the last 11 months:

• Feb. 8th, 2024: Claimed by Orioles from Angels.

• Feb. 18th, 2024: Claimed by Angels from Orioles.

• April 11th, 2024: Claimed by Orioles from Angels.

• April 19th, 2024: Claimed by Reds from Orioles.

• July 20th, 2024: Traded by Reds to Orioles for cash.

The Orioles have acquired Soto three times and also waived him three times within the last year. They like him, just not enough to hang onto him for more than a few weeks at a time. Soto, 24, is a lefty hitting utility infield type who slashed .283/.377/.381 (103 wRC+) with four homers and strong strikeout (16.8%) and walk (12.4%) rates in Triple-A last year. He has big league time and has been good in limited action (157 wRC+!), though that’s small sample size noise to the max (.441 BABIP in 87 PA). Soto has zero power, but his contact rates and swing decisions are good, and he rates as an above average defender who can play second, short, and third. He also has a minor league option remaining for 2025. The Yankees have four open 40-man roster spots and not much in the way of Triple-A infield depth, especially with Oswald Peraza out of options and not a lock to remain in the organization beyond Spring Training. Claiming Soto and stashing him in Scranton seems like a thing that should happen. It might even be worth it for the Yankees to make a cash trade with the O’s to jump the waiver line and make sure they get him. (The O's also DFAed third catcher type Blake Hunt this week. Maybe he's worth a claim and adding to the backup catcher competition.)

9. I’ve begun prep work for the annual Top 30 Prospects List, which means I’ve started bugging a few pals who work for teams (not the Yankees) for intel. One player who’s gotten more love than I expected: LHP Ben Shields. The Yankees signed Shields as an undrafted free agent out of George Mason in July 2023. He was a graduate student, so he’s an older prospect (26 next week), but he pitched well at High-A and Double-A last year (2.93 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 32.1 K%, 7.3 BB%, 47.9 GB%), and the stuff checks out. Low-90s fastball with okay shape, two distinct breaking balls (slider and curveball), and a lot of strikes. Here’s video. There’s enough stuff and command to maybe make it work as a back-end starter at the next level, and if his velocity ticks up in short relief, Shields could really be something. He gives off Matt Strahm vibes. Shields went from the periphery of my radar to firmly in the top 30 mix.

10. And finally, Gary Phillips wrote about the coaching exodus last week. It wasn't behind the paywall for me, so you shouldn’t have trouble accessing it, and I recommend it. Folks with the Yankees acknowledged they have lost a lot of coaches and instructors, this is indeed an unusually high number of coaching departures, and, not surprisingly, they I say it’s a good thing and shows they’re doing something right because their coaches are in demand. It is at least a little telling that one former coach cited undrafted free agent Rafael Flores as a developmental win and not, say, recent first round picks Spencer Jones and George Lombard Jr., or recent big money international signings Roderick Arias and Brando Mayea. I don’t really care why the Yankees have lost so many coaches this offseason. I really only care about what comes next, specifically with regards to their hitter development. The Yankees have to start getting more offense from the farm system. It is imperative. If they’re not going to win bidding wars at the top of the free agent position player market, then they need more from within. The farm system must start providing more offensive impact, period.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)