Quick thoughts after the Yankees sign Paul Goldschmidt
Added 2024-12-21 19:08:47 +0000 UTC
The Yankees sat through two years of rapidly declining Anthony Rizzo, and decided to get older at first base. They have a one-year deal worth $12.5M in place with Paul Goldschmidt, according to Jack Curry. Mark Feinsand says Goldschmidt could potentially convince Nolan Arenado, his close friend, to waive his no-trade clause to come to New York. Recreating the 2023-24 Cardinals does not excite me.
Now 37, Goldschmidt had the worst season of his career in 2024, hitting .245/.302/.414 (100 wRC+) with 22 home runs. That includes a .233/.291/.387 (90 wRC+) line through July before a .273/.325/.475 (120 wRC+) dead cat bounce in August and September. Goldschmidt still hits the ball quite hard, which is half the battle, though his contact, chase, and ground ball rates are all trending the wrong way.
As Mike Petriello noted, Goldschmidt has been a below-average hitter against fastballs the last two years. More whiffs, more chases, more ground balls, declining production against fastballs are all classic signs of an aging hitter. Goldschmidt is very talented and very smart, so hopefully he’ll be able to adjust to his declining skills and hit something like 25 homers with a 115 wRC+ in 2025. I’d consider that a big win.
Goldschmidt does bring good defense and sneaky great baserunning to the Yankees. He’s 22-for-24 (92%) stealing bases the last two years and it was a much better than average 48.5% extra-base taken rate in 2024. Goldschmidt is not fast (23rd percentile sprint speed), but he is a very smart and opportunistic baserunner. He’ll help the Yankees in all phases even though he’s not the player he was at his peak.
The Yankees got some of the worst first base production in franchise history in 2024: .216/.284/.335 (76 wRC+) with 16 home runs and -1.0 WAR. The bar is on the floor. Goldschmidt will be a considerable upgrade even if he’s nothing more than league average. That said, Goldschmidt was barely average in 2025, and players this age typically don't get better or even hold their performance. This signing has much more downside than upside.
Goldschmidt hammered lefties this past season (.296/.366/.473 and 134 wRC+) and was very bad against righties (.230/.280/.395 and 88 wRC+), but the Yankees didn’t give him $12.5M to platoon with Ben Rice. He is the everyday first baseman. Figure the starting lineup will look something like this:
1. 2B/3B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF/LF Cody Bellinger
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
6. C Austin Wells
7. CF/LF Jasson Domínguez
8. SS Anthony Volpe
9. 2B/3B ???
That is a lot of righties with higher than league average strikeout rates bunched together in the top half of the lineup. The Yankees really need a second or third baseman who can hit to lengthen the lineup, and that player would ideally hit left-handed (or switch-hit). Who is that player? I have no idea. Maybe they can pry Brandon Lowe away from the Rays, or Willi Castro from the Twins? Sign Jorge Polanco? I dunno.
Jeff Passan (subs. req’d) recently reported Nate Lowe and LaMonte Wade Jr. are available in trades and I would have preferred either to Goldschmidt, even while understanding you have to trade something to get them. Hopefully Goldschmidt pulls a Matt Carpenter and inexplicably hits .310/.400/.525 this year. The Yankees have that way about them. Otherwise I am unenthused about replacing an aging, declining player at first base with an older, declining player.
Comments
There should be good results if you platoon goldschmidt with Ben rice ,you will get a super first baseman ,also it is good to have an experienced hitter for pinch hits when he is not playing
ramez hanna
2024-12-22 17:08:57 +0000 UTCI’m fine with the deal. They aren’t exactly punting the position and leaving themselves flexible to go out and make a splash at OF (Tucker) or 1B (Vlad Jr) next offseason.
The Original Drew
2024-12-22 15:20:42 +0000 UTCWay better
The Original Drew
2024-12-22 15:19:58 +0000 UTCThat would be outstanding but I don't know why AZ would part with him.
Gregory B
2024-12-22 04:19:05 +0000 UTCI’m fine with one year. It also gives Ben Rice a year at Scranton to improve his defense and holes in his swing. Rice went from Double A to Show in one year and obviously wasn’t ready. I still think Rice can develop into an option in future
JimBearNJ
2024-12-22 02:17:15 +0000 UTCExactly. It’s like them saying they ultimately did not sign Walker bc of draft picks. Thats Cashman covering for Hal. It was a financial decision. Hal talks about budgets too much to not know that’s what happened.
Mike
2024-12-22 01:50:17 +0000 UTCBrandon Lowe would definitely be one to get if at all possible, and it could be worth seeing what the Phillies price tag on Bohm is even though he's a RHH. What about calling the Mets and offering them Stroman for Jeff McNeil? Not exactly the high-impact LHH we want, but he could potentially profile with more power at Yankee Stadium and the Mets appear to be shopping in that 15-20M tier of SP
Brian Jennings
2024-12-22 01:16:08 +0000 UTCThe $$ difference is more than the salary difference because of the luxury tax. The owner wants to keep the payroll under the $301mm level apparently 🤷♂️. So it's really not a matter of opinion whether the budget argument matters, it's just a fact that Cashman is operating under.
Will H.
2024-12-22 00:55:31 +0000 UTCFlip flop Stanton and Dominguez in that lineup 😂
Will H.
2024-12-22 00:42:58 +0000 UTCI hope you're right. I live in Seattle. He just sucked.
Bill Abelson
2024-12-21 23:19:56 +0000 UTCRyan McMahon?🤞
David Herz
2024-12-21 23:07:46 +0000 UTCSantana is also bad against righties (despite being a switch hitter). Mike covered his splits in another post this week.
Mike F.
2024-12-21 23:04:36 +0000 UTCI’m hopeful. Goldschmidt is just one of those guys. A beast of a ballplayer who’s never hurt, a true gamer. He could be a huge component of a championship team. I suppose it’s not outlandish to think that he could get back to his 2023 numbers, which would be excellent.
KingThong
2024-12-21 23:03:18 +0000 UTCCan I hold out hope that since cash held onto all the prospects he finishes this off with Ketel Marte?
Joseph F
2024-12-21 21:52:00 +0000 UTCRight, exactly. With the moves they've already made, it feels like Bregman is the only guy still out there that would significantly move the needle for this lineup. And I still don't love the idea of signing him. They're in this position where the they have to make win now moves while the Judge/Cole window is open, but the current options aren't great. It's the result of years of bad decisions by Cashman. If Harper and/or Seager was in the middle of our lineup, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Then you make moves like Bellinger and even Goldschmidt to deepen your lineup without needing their best case outcomes to have a competent offense.
Corey Lewin
2024-12-21 21:37:57 +0000 UTCFor one year it’s not a bad gamble. If he tanks against righties they can always put Bellinger at 1st base.
Jerry Donohue
2024-12-21 21:28:00 +0000 UTCTerrible, terrible, terrible. Even by the standards of the 1B market and 1B in general, there were better options. We're gonna sit through six months of Boone saying he's right around the corner and having better at bats.
Nick Fugitt
2024-12-21 21:12:22 +0000 UTC12M I believe puts the payroll at 301M give or take a few millions from the Trevino trade. Right under the Cohen tax. That’s right, raise that “Mission Accomplished” banner.
Bryan Mayer
2024-12-21 21:09:54 +0000 UTCHe was, but he was also only 30 and played in Seattle, whose home park greatly depresses offensive stats. His 2024 looks out of place with the rest of his career as a Twin. He could be worth a shot. My preference is they sign a slugging, lefty, good-glove 3B'man...who as far as I can tell doesn't exist!
MikeD
2024-12-21 21:05:43 +0000 UTCThe problem with adding a league-averageish Goldschmidt at 1B is that it leaves only 3B or 2B as places where we can add offense. There aren't nearly as many difference-makers available at those spots. With payroll currently at around $279M, we could still maybe dump half of Stroman's contract, sign Bregman, add a top shelf reliever, and come in around $310M. Don't love the idea of 7 years of Bregman, but if the alternative is a Gleyber Torres reunion, Bregman come on down.
pkmuldy
2024-12-21 20:48:17 +0000 UTCDefinitely not the same player since that concussion. A dirty play by Tatis too. Then when he came back from the broken arm this year, his fielding declined considerably too.
Mike Farley
2024-12-21 19:51:46 +0000 UTCJorge Polanco was a disaster last year. Ugh
Bill Abelson
2024-12-21 19:48:50 +0000 UTCI get what you're saying but Houston is paying 20M for Christian Walker this year. I have a hard time believing the Yankees couldn't find 7.5M to make up the difference. I didn't LOVE Walker (or any of the options, really) but you're likely to get more power, the best 1B defense in the league, and even at the end of a 3 year deal he's going to be the age Goldschmidt is now. So if Walker notably outperforms Goldschmidt, is the Goldschmidt deal still better just because he was 7.5M cheaper? I don't think it's enough money that the budget argument matters much here. The Yankees need a lot more production from their lineup now. Judge and Cole aren't getting any younger.
Corey Lewin
2024-12-21 19:28:34 +0000 UTCGoldschmidt still mashes against lefties, I can see moving Bellinger to first on occasion against some righties. Would Santana have been a better choice? I hope they have done their homework and Goldschmidt has one good year left.
Steven O
2024-12-21 19:28:15 +0000 UTCI am excited about this AARP lineup!!
Alex SAMUEL
2024-12-21 19:25:52 +0000 UTCRIP, Rickey Henderson. Your Game may never be seen again. Prayers for his family.
Kevin Parlato
2024-12-21 19:22:41 +0000 UTCWhat to make of this organization?
Kevin Parlato
2024-12-21 19:21:54 +0000 UTCUntil people accept the fact that the Yankees are operating under a budget, there will always be “you could get a better player here” complaints. It’s just not based on the reality of the situation. The Yankees still need another infielder and bullpen upgrades. Getting Goldy at this price allows them to upgrade more positions under the budget constraints they have.
MikeM
2024-12-21 19:19:32 +0000 UTCCan’t believe how many people are saying “well it’s only one year and there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal”. If you’re expecting that player to be a major contributor to your lineup and they’re average to below average, that’s not a good signing just because it’s one year. It’s still a wasted year in the Judge/Cole era and a missed opportunity to have gotten a more productive player instead.
Corey Lewin
2024-12-21 19:15:59 +0000 UTCCan't be worse than Rizzo/DJL, right? RIGHT????
brian m
2024-12-21 19:15:54 +0000 UTCProof that they just don't learn
kyle
2024-12-21 19:15:45 +0000 UTCWhile in some ways I get the comparison with Rizzo, I think the reality is that concussions can change a player profile in ways that defy age. His goose was totally cooked in a way that wasn’t just age related.
MikeM
2024-12-21 19:15:20 +0000 UTCIsn't his line against righties still better than what we got out of 1B this year?
I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For
2024-12-21 19:12:04 +0000 UTC
