December 11th, 2024: Crochet, Tucker, Williams, Walker, Alonso

Old pal Estevan Florial is heading to South Korea. He signed with the Hanwha Eagles in KBO, per Jon Heyman. Florial went 17-for-98 (.173) with three homers (two against the Yankees, go figure) and 41 strikeouts with Cleveland in 2024. He cleared waivers in May and finished out the season in Triple-A, where he slashed .213/.320/.371 (83 wRC+). Florial just turned 27. He’s got a lot of baseball left in him. I hope he mashes in KBO, makes himself some money, and maybe even makes it back to MLB at some point. Anyway, here’s what I wrote about the Max Fried signing and here's a quick midweek post with the latest from the Winter Meetings.

1. Latest Winter Meetings rumblings. Every manager has a formal press conference at the Winter Meetings and Aaron Boone had his Tuesday afternoon. Here’s the transcript, if you’re interested. He was asked about Juan Soto leaving, the bullpen, the usual stuff. If you’ve heard Boone talk once, you’ve heard him talk all the time. Here now is the latest from Dallas.

Yankees are (or were?) pursuing Crochet

This came across too late Monday night to get it into Tuesday’s post: Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says the Yankees are among the teams vying for White Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The Mets, Phillies, and Red Sox are also said to be in the mix. I reckon many more teams are interested as well seeing how Crochet has two years of control and is projected to make only $3M or so in 2025.

The Crochet rumor came through before the Yankees agreed to sign Max Fried, so it’s possible and maybe even likely they are no longer interested. When you’re the Yankees, you can solve your problems with a big pile of cash and keep your prospects rather than trade them. That said, Crochet is excellent, and there is no such thing as too many good starters. The Yankees could go all-in on pitching and add Fried and Crochet.

Earlier this offseason White Sox GM Chris Getz said they want position players in return, supposedly up-the-middle athletes, and, on paper, the Yankees have pieces who could satisfy them: Roderick Arias, Jasson Domínguez, Spencer Jones, George Lombard Jr., etc. The two teams talked Crochet at the trade deadline, per Buster Olney (subs. req’d ), though the White Sox didn’t love the farm system at the time. So, who knows.

Crochet, 25, threw 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA and excellent strikeout (35.1%) and walk (5.5%) rates in 2024, his first season as a big league starter. The ChiSox were the worst defensive team in baseball and all the underlying numbers indicate Crochet was more or less the most dominant pitcher in the game once you adjust for the defense behind him: 2.69 FIP, 2.83 xERA, 2.75 DRA. He was outstanding.

I traded for Crochet as part of the Offseason Plan, though me saying I’d trade this and that for him is much different than a real life bidding war. The White Sox have to actually want your prospects, other teams get to make offers, etc. It feels like, if the Red Sox really want Crochet, they’ll get him. They have a lot of really high-end position players in the system. The only question is whether they’ll trade them.

Now that the Yankees have Fried, Crochet is a luxury more than a necessity, but he is a difference-maker who would make any rotation better. The Yankees could load up on pitching and improve that way post-Soto. If the Yankees are out on Crochet after getting Fried, okay, I get it, but I’m still glad they were after him. Crochet’s great and he might – might – make $15M the next two years combined. That's a guy worth giving up a top prospect and more to acquire.

The Kyle Tucker rumor

Earlier this week, during his daily chat with the team’s beat reporters, Astros GM Dana Brown said they are open to offers for all their players, including Kyle Tucker (and Framber Valdez). As these things tend to do, it took on a life of its own, and it turned into Tucker is available, the Astros are willing to move him, so on and so forth. Really though, it was the standard “we’re open to anything” statement from the GM.

“We’re not trying to aggressively move anybody out the door, but if someone wants to talk, that’s part of being at the Winter Meetings,” Brown told Chandler Brown (subs. req’d). “Sometimes guys will think outside the box and say, ‘Hey would you guys do this guy or that guy.’ If it doesn’t make sense, we wouldn’t do it. It would really have to make sense. We’re a good team and we’re not motivated to move any of these guys.”

Tucker, 28 next month, slashed .289/.408/.585 (180 wRC+) with 23 homers in only 78 games around a broken shin in 2024 (he fouled a pitch into his leg). He walked (16.5%) more than he struck out (15.9%), he went 11-for-11 stealing bases, he’s a lefty who hits lefties as well as he hits righties, and he’s a strong defender. Tucker is a terrific all-around player and a consistent +5 WAR guy. He’s not Soto, but he’s more well-rounded and the next best thing.

Jon Morosi says the Yankees have shown interest in Tucker. I don’t think the Astros will trade him – they need more outfielders, not to trade their best outfielder (by a lot) – but you can kinda connect the dots and see how it would happen. First and foremost, Tucker is a year away from free agency and Houston may not want to risk losing him for nothing but a draft pick, which is what they’re facing with Alex Bregman.

Two, the Astros are bumping up against the $241M luxury tax threshold (FanGraphs estimates their 2025 payroll at $234M) and, in addition to re-signing or replacing Bregman, they need a first baseman, at least one outfielder, a back-end starting pitcher, plus the usual depth additions. As Anthony Franco recently wrote, the Astros have very few ways to subtract payroll. Consider:

• Jose Altuve ($33M per year) and Yordan Alvarez ($93M from 2025-28) aren’t going anywhere.

• Josh Hader ($19M per year through 2028) has a full no-trade clause and probably won’t go.

• Cristian Javier ($53M from 2025-27) is in the middle of Tommy John surgery rehab.

• Lance McCullers Jr. ($34M from 2025-26) is hurt and hasn’t pitched in two years.

• Guys like Victor Caratini ($6M) and Mauricio Dubón (projected $4.6M) are small bites.

The Astros are said to be “extensively” shopping Ryan Pressly and his $14M salary. He has a full no-trade clause and there are signs of decline (K% and whiffs way down), so I have no idea whether they’ll actually be able to move him. So, if Houston does want to clear significant payroll space, trading Tucker (projected $15.8M) or Valdez (projected $17.8M) might be the best way to do it. (Valdez, like Tucker, is a free agent next winter.)

Given the price for starting pitching this winter, the Astros might get a better return for Valdez than Tucker, though they’d then have to replace Valdez, which won’t be easy. Trading Tucker for a big package and backfilling the outfield with low cost stopgaps (Randal Grichuk, Max Kepler, Jesse Winker, etc.) might be the more sensible move. The Astros should just raise payroll and improve the team, but if they won’t do that, who am I to argue?

There is plenty of recent precedent for a star player being traded a year away from free agency, and every single time it was for financial reasons. The Guardians traded Francisco Lindor because they couldn’t afford to keep him long-term. The Red Sox traded literally Mookie Betts because they decided they didn’t want to pay him. The Padres traded Juan Soto because they had to cut payroll to get back into compliance with MLB’s debt service rules. 

I don’t think the Astros are desperate to move Tucker for financial reasons like those other teams with those players. It sounds like they’re willing to discuss him because every smart GM is willing to discuss all his players (it never hurts to listen), and if someone bowls them over with an offer, they’ll consider it. The Astros are nearing the end of their reign. Trading Tucker would be another step in that direction.

If Tucker is available, then yes, absolutely pursue him aggressively. He is a near perfect fit for the Yankees (I say only near perfect because they'd run into the “two right fielders” problem again), and Tucker is open to an extension too. He’s kinda had this Gleyber Torres thing going on where he’s said he wants an extension and the Astros have just been like cool, good to know. A trade and an extension seems doable with Tucker, unlike with Soto.

(An extension would probably be closer to $200M than $300M. Tucker is not a true franchise player who moves tickets, merchandise, and all that like Soto, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, etc. That stuff matters.)

What would it cost to get Tucker? It’s hard to say. The Astros will presumably want big league help, not prospects. Does Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt interest them? The Fried signing makes it easier to trade one of them. Does Jasson Domínguez factor in here? Domínguez for a rental would hurt, but if you can convince Tucker to sign an extension, it would soften the blow. The unknown is how the Astros view El Marciano. If they see him as MLB-ready, then this suddenly gets really interesting.

Tucker will make $16M or so next year, not $32.5M like Cody Bellinger. Trading him won’t clear the payroll decks for Houston to do something big, and it will be close to impossible to replace his production. If he is truly available, then the Yankees should go hard after him. My meaningless hunch is Houston keeps Tucker and makes cheaper moves to fill out the roster and keep payroll in line.

Yankees interested in Williams

According to Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Yankees are among the teams with interest in Brewers closer Devin Williams. He’s a year away from free agency and that’s when Milwaukee trades their best players (Hader, Corbin Burnes, etc.). Williams, 30, missed the first three months of 2024 with stress fractures in his back, but he was his usually excellent self after returning: 1.25 ERA (2.06 FIP) with 43.2 K%.

Since his NL Rookie of the Year season in 2020, Williams has been arguably the best reliever in baseball. The conversation is Williams, Emmanuel Clase, and Edwin Díaz. Williams ranks second to Clase in ERA (1.70), second to Díaz in FIP (2.24), second to Díaz in strikeout rate (40.8%), and first in WPA (+14.33) among full-time relievers since 2020. The only downside is a walk rate consistently in the 12% range, though that’s manageable.

Williams is excellent, his Airbender is one of the best and most aesthetically pleasing pitches in baseball …

… and he’s projected to make $7.7M through arbitration. He would make every contender’s bullpen better and the Yankees could certainly use him. Plug Williams in at closer, use Luke Weaver as the fireman, and that’s a pretty good 1-2 punch. The Yankees don’t pay big for relievers via trade or salary anymore, but one year of control will keep the trade cost down, and a projected $7.7M is plenty affordable.

And! And Williams is the rare reliever who will be worth a qualifying offer next offseason, assuming he has a typical Williams year and stays healthy. You’ll recoup a prospect that way. I’m in, for sure. The Brewers tend to make quantity over quality trades (i.e. 2-4 good pieces over 1-2 great pieces) and that would help the Yankees given what they have available to trade. Let’s do it. Williams is a great and obvious trade target.

Miscellany

Joel Sherman reiterated the Yankees are pushing to sign Christian Walker. Here’s my Scouting the Market post. I will say again that, if the Yankees sign Walker, then they must get a lefty hitting outfielder, and maybe a lefty hitting second/third baseman too. They can’t go back to building a righty heavy lineup just because righty bats are easier to acquire … I don’t like the direction the Nolan Arenado rumors are heading. One day after it was reported the Cardinals contacted the Yankees about him, presumably because Arenado is willing to waive his no-trade clause to come to New York, Katie Woo (subs. req’d) says the Yankees have interest, and Erik Boland says his name keeps coming up. Losing Soto and adding Arenado would be a worst case scenario kinda offseason on the position player side, and we’re already halfway there … Mark Feinsand says it “doesn’t appear” the Yankees have Pete Alonso on their radar. Asking around, the belief is Alonso is the big name free agent most likely to get squeezed into a one-year contract with player options a la Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, et al last offseason (not that it’s a lock to happen). If that happens, then yeah, signing him would make sense. But if that happens, wouldn’t Alonso just go back to the Mets? With the Yankees he’s Pete Alonso, big dinger man. With the Mets he’s Pete Alonso, beloved homegrown slugger who is a few months away from setting the franchise home run record. Long-term deal? Pass. One-year deal with player options? Sure, though the Mets presumably have a leg up there … And finally, Thairo Estrada signed a one-year deal worth $4M (!) with the Rockies, per Feinsand. The Yankees were said to have interest in a reunion. Minor league deal? Sure. $4M big league contract? Nah. Enjoy Denver, Thairo.

2. Quick 2025 draft nuggets. Got four quick 2025 draft things I want to mention (MLB Pipeline released their top 100 2025 draft prospects list recently, if you’re interested):

• The Yankees get a compensation pick after the fourth round for losing Juan Soto. It’ll be in the 130-ish overall range, depending where the remaining qualified free agents sign.

• The Yankees will forfeit their second and fifth highest draft picks, plus $1M in 2026 international bonus money, for every qualified free agent they sign. That includes Max Fried.

• The Nationals won the draft lottery Tuesday night. They moved up from No. 4. The Yankee made the postseason and thus weren’t in the lottery. Their first pick is No. 39 overall.

• The 15 competitive balance picks were assigned last week. The Yankees don't get one because they're for small market teams. These are the only tradeable draft picks.

I say this every year, but the Yankees should trade for an extra draft pick(s), especially since they seem willing to forfeit a bunch of picks to sign multiple qualified free agents (Fried, Christian Walker, etc.). The Yankees have traded for a draft pick only once previously. They got the No. 38 pick in 2019 from the Reds in the Sonny Gray trade and used it on lefty TJ Sikkema. He went to the Royals in the Andrew Benintendi deal.

Also, note that the Yankees will forfeit their second and fifth highest picks to sign qualified free agents, not necessarily their second and fifth round picks. Right now, the Soto pick is their fifth highest, and compensation picks are not protected. The Soto pick will be forfeited once the Fried signing is official. Bummer, but we’re talking about a draft pick after the fourth round here, not a pick after the first round. Anyway, there’s a quick 2025 draft update. 

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)