December 10th, 2024: Arenado, Santander, Bullpen, Estrada, Rule 5 Draft, Coaching Turnover

If you’re still miserable over Juan Soto leaving for the Mets, do not look at his ZiPS projection. ZiPS has him putting up +65 WAR and hitting over 370 home runs during the 15-year contract, which would put him in the +100 WAR and 570-homer range for his career. No, I do not believe any system can accurately project 15 years into the future, but I saw the +65 WAR and 370 homers and thought to myself yeah, I can buy that. Well, anyway, here’s what I wrote about Plan B and here is today’s post.

1. Latest Winter Meetings rumblings. One more Juan Soto nugget: Joel Sherman reports the Yankees included a $60M signing bonus in their final offer (16 years and $760M). The Mets gave him a $75M bonus. There’s this belief going around that the Yankees and the Steinbrenners are illiquid, but my dudes, they are the Yankees, not the Marlins. They have $60M laying around. Don’t overthink it. The Yankees act like they have less money than they do because the Steinbrenners want to keep as much of it for themselves as possible. That’s it. They’re the owners and they’re allowed to do that. Here now is the latest from the Winter Meetings in Dallas as Brian Cashman says the Yankees are “not going to be drunken sailors” after losing Soto.

Cardinals called Yankees about Arenado

The Yankees are among the teams the Cardinals contacted about a Nolan Arenado trade, per Derrick Goold. This means Arenado, who has a full no-trade clause and controls his destination, wants to play for the Yankees. The Cardinals wouldn’t have called otherwise. It’s unclear if the Yankees have interest in Arenado. Goold only reports that St. Louis reached out to the Yankees.

I looked at Arenado (and other Cardinals players) last week and he’s a hard no for me. All indications are this is a soon-to-be 34-year-old with declining skills both at the plate and in the field. This is the kinda player the Yankees need to avoid. Old, declining, expensive. Unless the Cardinals are willing to attach a player like Brendan Donovan or Lars Nootbaar to Arenado to unload his contract, forget it. Tell the Cardinals thanks for the call, but we’re looking elsewhere.

The inevitable Santander rumor

The three AL East teams that missed out on Juan Soto (Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees) have shown interest in Anthony Santander, per Jon Morosi. It was only a matter of time until a Santander rumor came across the wire. In addition to the Yankees checking in on everyone every offseason, he’s now one of the top available free agent outfield bats. Of course the Yankees checked in on him.

Santander, 30, slashed .235/.308/.506 (129 wRC+) with 44 home runs this past season. Did you know those are the fifth most home runs by a switch-hitter in baseball history?

1. Mickey Mantle, 1961: 54
2. Mickey Mantle, 1956: 52
3. Lance Berkman, 2006: 45
4. Chipper Jones, 1999: 45
5. Anthony Santander, 2024: 44

Santander checks the exit velocity boxes and he’s a true switch-hitter with a tiny platoon split, and those 44 homers came with an 8.8% swinging strike rate. It’s 9.5% over the last three years. He swings and chases an awful lot, but Santander gets the bat on the ball, and doesn’t flail away hopelessly.

The downside is power is all Santander brings to the table. He has a .311 OBP in his last 2,400 plate appearances, he’s slow and a negative baserunner, and he’s a poor defensive outfielder who has played all of eight innings in left field the last three years. So what’s the plan, hope Santander can play left field in the Bronx? Put Aaron Judge back in center so Santander can play right? I’d do it for Soto, but for Santander? No. If there is any slippage with his power, he’s underwater.

The Yankees have a chance to build a proper ballclub now and address specific needs, play players in their proper positions, and add more defense and baserunning. Santander is going to get what, 3-5 years and $20M per? That is exactly the kinda panic move I’m worried the Yankees will make. Grab the big dinger man, field a roster of mismatched parts, and lock yourself into a 30-something DH type. It’s one thing to do it for Juan freaking Soto, but for Santander? I dislike the fit.

Yankees active on reliever market

In the least surprising news ever, the Yankees are active in the market for free agent relievers, according to Morosi. The Yankees have not paid a reliever more than $6M since 2022, the last year with Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman. That will have to change if they plan on signing anything more than scrap-heapers. Chapman and Blake Treinen are both 36 and they just signed deals that pay eight figures annually.

We can drop the available free agent relievers into three buckets:

• Top guys: Jeff Hoffman, Tanner Scott

• Old guys who still got it: Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, David Robertson, Kirby Yates

• Everyone else: Everyone else

José Leclerc is a premier bat-misser (career 31.2 K% and 15.7% swinging strikes) and a pitch data darling, plus he proved his mettle when he closed out postseason games for the Rangers during their World Series run. Andrew Kittredge is a boring sinker/slider guy with a history of suppressing exit velocity, and he pitched in every role with the Rays. A versatile veteran bullpen arm you can use in any situation.

The Yankees do not have a lefty reliever on their 40-man roster right now, so they need one of those, and I guess a Tim Hill reunion would be the path of least resistance (Gary Phillips says the two sides remain in touch). Scott’s a bona fide high leverage guy, not a matchup specialist. I’m not convinced the Yankees will pay top of the market dollars for a top of the market reliever. They’re gonna cut costs somewhere and cheap relievers are kinda their thing. We’ll see.

Yankees interested in Thairo reunion

According to Mark Feinsand, the Yankees are among the teams with interest in infielder Thairo Estrada. He is of course a former Yankee, having originally signed with the team as an international amateur free agent out of Venezuela in 2012. Estrada made his big league debut with the Yankees in 2019 and was sent to the Giants in a cash trade in April 2021 when they needed a 40-man roster spot for Rougned Odor.

Estrada, 28, had an awful 2024, slashing .217/.247/.343 (64 wRC+) while being hampered by a wrist issue all year. The Giants put him on waivers in late August, no team claimed him and the remainder of his $4.7M salary, then he finished out the year in Triple-A and became a minor league free agent after the season. In his two full and healthy MLB seasons, Thairo authored a .266/.319/.408 (103 wRC+) line from 2022-23.

When right, Estrada pairs above average contact rates with sneaky pull power. He hit 14 homers in 2022 and again in 2023, which ain’t easy for a diminutive middle infielder in Oracle Park. Estrada played all over for the Giants but was primarily their second baseman, and second base always seemed like long-term landing spot. His defensive numbers at second are all over the place:

• 2022: -12 DRS and -1 OAA

• 2023: +1 DRS and +20 OAA

• 2024: -7 DRS and +9 OAA

While diagnosing the team’s issues In August, noted Giants observer Grant Brisbee (subs. req’d) wrote Estrada’s “defense has been outstanding again,” so I guess we should believe OAA over DRS. Ultimately, the glove won’t matter if he puts up a .247 OBP and 64 wRC+ again. The team that signs Estrada will do so believing the wrist injury explains his offensive collapse, and they’re getting a healthy bounceback candidate.

Even if the Yankees intend to go cheap at second base (Caleb Durbin, Oswald Peraza, etc.), they’ll bring in a veteran non-roster guy to provide competition and depth. Did Estrada's poor 2024 sour teams enough that he’s a minor league contract candidate now? I would gladly take him as a non-roster player. Guaranteeing Thairo a big league roster spot would be a tougher sell. Without knowing the state of his wrist, it’s hard to say whether this is a good idea or a bad idea.

Miscellany

Bob Nightengale says the Yankees are expected to make a “strong push” for Christian Walker after losing Soto. Here’s my Scouting the Market post on Walker. If the Yankees do sign him, they must then go out and get a left-handed hitting outfielder, and maybe a left-handed hitting second/third basemen too. They can’t fall into the 2019-22 trap of building a righty heavy lineup. Please learn from your mistakes and don’t just grab the shiny new toy … And finally, Roki Sasaki was officially posted Monday. His 45-day posting window runs until 5pm ET on Jan. 23rd, giving him eight days to sign once the 2025 international signing period opens and the bonus pools reset on Jan. 15th. I wrote about the Yankees’ international free agency plans last week. If they manage to sign Sasaki, that would rule, but I will not be holding my breath. 

2. Scouting the Market: Rule 5 Draft candidates. The annual Rule 5 Draft is 2pm ET on Wednesday and, in all likelihood, the Yankees will not make a selection. They haven’t made a Rule 5 Draft pick* since taking Cesar Cabral and Brad Meyer in 2011. It’s not a talent pool they swim in. The return on a Rule 5 Draft pick is often miniscule, if there is a return at all, and the Yankees are always in win-now mode. There are better ways to use that roster spot.

* MLB Pipeline notes the Yankees have not had a Rule 5 Draft pick stick since 1973. Over 50 years ago! The player: Billy Parker, the last Negro Leaguer to play in the big leagues.

And yet, I feel compelled to do a mini Rule 5 Draft preview just on the off-chance the Yankees do make a selection. They have five open 40-man roster spots with some flexibility to open more spots beyond that, and that’s half the battle right there. Do you have the 40-man space to carry a Rule 5 Draft player all offseason? The Yankees might. Probably not, but they might, and given the current state of the bullpen …

• Closer: RHP Luke Weaver

• Setup: RHP Jake Cousins, RHP Ian Hamilton

• Middle: RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Scott Effross, RHP Mark Leiter Jr.

• Long: RHP JT Brubaker, RHP Yoendrys Gómez

… rolling the dice on a bullpener seems possible. Grab a big arm, add him to the Spring Training bullpen competition, and see what’s what. There’s maybe a 2% chance it happens, but 2% is not 0%. The Yankees have had success turning waiver claims and non-roster guys into quality relievers. A Rule 5 Draft pick is more or less the same thing, only acquired via a different avenue.

I don’t want to get too deep into the Rule 5 Draft weeds because again, the Yankees are unlikely to make a pick. I’m just going to highlight a few names who caught my eye in Baseball America’s Rule 5 Draft preview (subs. req’d) and could potentially interest the Yankees. Let’s get to it.

The big name: RHP Griff McGarry, Phillies

2024 stats: 4.70 ERA (5.85 FIP), 27.2 K%, 24.5 BB%, 37.1 GB% (30.2 IP at AAA)

Baseball America scouting nugget: “He has upper-minors experience and big-league-quality stuff, but his lack of command might see him go undrafted. If a team does draft him, it’ll be because they believe the plus fastball and slider combination can play up in the pen."

My take: “Big name” is a relative term in the Rule 5 Draft world, though McGarry was a top 100 prospect as recently as 2023. It’s knockout stuff – mid-90s fastball with two swing-and-miss breaking balls – with little-to-no strike-throwing ability. Basically, if the Yankees (or any team) think they can get McGarry to throw strikes at a below average rate (forget league average, can he do what Luis Gil does?), they could take a shot on his raw stuff. Command tweaks can be really, really hard to figure out at the MLB level though.

The GB% monster: RHP Noah Murdock, Royals

2024 stats: 3.15 ERA (3.51 FIP), 27.0 K%, 15.4 BB%, 59.7 GB% (62.2 IP at AA, AAA)

Baseball America scouting nugget: “Murdock mixes three pitches in a sinker, slider and cutter, all of which rate as above-average per Stuff+ metrics. Murdock’s fastball is a true sinker that sits 95-97 mph, touching 98 at peak … Murdock’s primary secondary is a low-to-mid-80s sweeper sitting 83-84 with 11 to 12 inches of sweep. His third pitch is an upper-80s cutter that sees increased usage against lefthanded hitters and generates above-average whiff rates for a cutter … Murdock’s ability to drive both ground balls and whiffs during his time in the high minors makes him a logical Rule 5 pick.”

My take: The Yankees love power sinkers and ground ball relievers, and Murdock’s 59.7 GB% this season was fourth highest among Double-A and Triple-A pitchers (min. 60 IP). His lowest ground ball rate at any level in any year in any number of innings is 50.0% at 30 Double-A innings in 2021. Throwing strikes is a challenge – Murdoch hasn’t had a sub-11.5 BB% since rookie ball in 2019 – and well, that’s what you get in the Rule 5 Draft. If he threw strikes consistently, he’d be on the 40-man roster.

The smart teams guy: RHP Ryan Watson, Giants

2024 stats: 2.83 ERA (3.84 FIP), 26.1 K%, 9.4 BB%, 40.2 GB% (35 IP at AA, AAA)

Baseball America scouting nugget: “Watson’s slider is a plus sweeper, sitting 82-84 mph with around 9-11 inches of sweep. His four-seam fastball is above-average, sitting 93-94 and generating between 15-16 inches of ride from a 5-foot-5 release height. Watson also features a two-seam fastball, a curveball at 78-80 and a mid-80s splitter. At 27, Watson could be a classic reliever Rule 5 pick that gets interest based on the quality of his slider.”

My take: It can be instructive to look at the teams that pursue a player. If the Rockies cut a guy loose and he bounces to the Rays to the Astros to the Dodgers on waivers, then maybe there’s something there. The Orioles signed Watson as an undrafted free agent in 2020 and traded him to the Giants this summer. Baltimore is a very smart team and, under former POBO Farhan Zaidi, the Giants had a thing for pulling quality relievers out of nowhere. New Giants POBO Buster Posey left Watson exposed for the Rule 5 Draft (to be fair, San Francisco has a 40-man crunch), so perhaps another team with pitching smarts will grab him later this week. Perhaps even the Yankees.

The 60-day IL stash: RHP Yujaner Herrera, Rockies

2024 stats: 3.04 ERA (2.79 FIP), 26.5 K%, 8.2 BB%, 51.4 GB% (100.2 IP at A-, A+)

FanGraphs scouting nugget: “Big-framed almost-21-year-old righty with smooth delivery, plus command, plus slider and low-to-mid-90s fastball. No. 4/5 starter look.”

My take: Herrera had Tommy John surgery in October and will miss the entire 2025 season. The idea is, you take him in the Rule 5 Draft, stash him on the 60-day injured list next year and work on mechanics/pitch design, then in 2026 you get a 60-day free trial during his rehab assignment (Tommy John surgery guys can spend up to 60 days on rehab). If he looks good, you add him to the big league roster. If not, you return him to the Rockies. Carrying an injured Single-A kid on the 40-man the rest of this offseason and all of next offseason is a lot to ask though, nevermind expecting him to jump right into the big leagues post-elbow reconstruction. Herrera has a really good arm though. Lot to like there.

* * *

The Yankees could look for a position player in the Rule 5 Draft, maybe a second/third base candidate or a first base/corner outfield bench bat, though it’s easier to hide a Rule 5 Draft player as the last guy in the bullpen than it is on the four-man bench. I don’t expect the Yankee to make a Rule 5 Draft pick anyway. I just figured, why not look at some players? The Yankees have open 40-man spots and they’ll make a Rule 5 Draft pick again one of these years. Why not this year?

3. The coaching exodus. Over the last month or so the Yankees have lost a lot – A LOT – of coaches and personnel to other teams. Much more than the usual offseason turnover. Most of the departures have come on the minor league side, though some big league folks have left the organization too. Here’s who the Yankees lost and where they’re heading:

• Trevor Amicone, Triple-A hitting coach (Twins assistant hitting coach)

• Ben Buck, rookie ball pitching coordinator (Red Sox pitching coordinator)

• Desi Druschel, MLB assistant pitching coach (Mets assistant pitching coach)

• Rick Guarno, High-A hitting coach (Mets Triple-A hitting coach)

• Jose Javier, Triple-A defensive coach (Cubs first base coach)

• Graham Johnson, Triple-A pitching coach (Blue Jays bullpen coach)

• Aaron Leanhardt, MLB analyst (Marlins field coordinator)

• Joe Migliaccio, minor league hitting coordinator (Marlins director of hitting)

• Matt Talarico, director of speed development/baserunning (Cubs baserunning coordinator)

The most notable departures are Druschel, Leanhardt, and Migliaccio. Druschel was Matt Blake’s top assistant and the Yankees’ pitch design guru. He was the guy when it came to changing grips, adjusting pitch shapes, etc. Druschel played an important role in improving Luis Gil’s and Luke Weaver’s changeups, Nestor Cortes’ cutter, Clarke Schmidt’s everything, so on and so forth. That’s a pretty bright pitching guy out the door.

Leanhardt was promoted to the big league staff this past season and served as the liaison between the analytics staff and the players. He was the guy who put everything into a language the players could understand, which was something several Yankees (including Aaron Judge) said needed to improve last year. That’s a very important role that now must be filled. Soon too. Gotta start building relationships.

Migliaccio joined the Yankees as a minor league hitting coach in 2019. He was promoted to minor league hitting coordinator in 2022, after Dillon Lawson was promoted to the big league staff. He was the system’s lead offensive person. The Yankees’ hitting development lags behind their pitching development big time. Migliaccio’s departure is a chance to revamp that department, assuming the Yankees want to do that.

Javier was a Yankees lifer. He’d spent his entire career in the organization, first as a player (2010-15) and then as a minor league coach (2016-24). Talarico’s role was more about speed training and baserunning technique (leads, cutting the bases, the bouncing Anthony Volpe does, etc.) than baserunning awareness and things like that. Amicone, Buck, Guarno, and Johnson were cogs in the pitcher and hitter development machines.

I'm not sure why so many coaches are leaving the Yankees and you can make of it whatever you want. Their coaching people are in demand and therefore the Yankees are doing something right on the development side. The Yankees are not happy with their player development and are allowing people to leave so they can overhaul things. You could talk yourself into either scenario. I really have no idea what's going on here.

The Yankees have not yet announced any coaching hires, though that’s not unusual. They don’t announce their minor league coaching staffs until late January/early February, and Leanhardt’s replacement likely won’t even be announced. The Yankees will just fill the role and that’ll be that. I wonder if the Yankees will elevate director of pitching Sam Briend to replace Druschel? I dunno. Either way, that’s a lot of important personnel who must be replaced. Druschel, Leanhardt, and Migliaccio especially.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. There were never any indications the Yankees had interest in bringing Clay Holmes back, and now he’s off to the Mets. Three years, $38M with an opt out after 2026. They’re going to try him as a starter. Not sure that’ll work, but I didn’t think Reynaldo López would work as a starter either, so what do I know? The Yankees stole Holmes from the Pirates at the 2021 trade deadline and he was one of the best relievers in baseball during his 3.5 years in pinstripes, blown saves and all. Since the trade, 107 relievers have thrown at least 150 innings. Holmes’ ranks:

• ERA: 2.69 (13th)

• FIP: 2.74 (7th)

• K%: 26.6% (51st)

• BB%: 7.7% (41st)

• GB%: 67.8% (1st)

• HR/9: 0.41 (3rd)

Good Yankee, Holmes was. Something like the 15th to 20th best reliever in franchise history. I don’t know if the starter thing will work out for him or the Mets. At this point it doesn’t really matter though. Holmes got paid. Good for him. The trade to the Yankees turned his career around ... And finally, Dick Allen and Dave Parker were voted into the Hall of Fame by the Classic Baseball Committee on Sunday. Ichiro Suzuki is a lock to be voted in by the BBWAA and CC Sabathia is over 90% on the super early public ballots. Allen, Parker, Ichiro, and Sabathia would be too much cool for one Hall of Fame class. I haven't sent in my ballot yet but I have a pretty good idea who I'm going to vote for. The ballot doesn't have to be postmarked until Dec. 31st. I'm gonna take these next three weeks to think things through rather than rush to mail it out.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)