Plan B
Added 2024-12-09 12:55:37 +0000 UTC
Juan and done.
Juan Soto is a New York Met (or will be soon, officially) and now the Yankees must pick up the pieces, and try to build a roster that can do something the Yankees were unable to do with Soto: Win the World Series. There is no sense in downplaying it, losing Soto is a disaster. He’s one of the best hitters in the world and he’s only 26. There is no replacing him short or long-term. Winning the World Series will be much, much more difficult now.
Soto took the largest offer (the Mets offered more money over fewer years) and I will never begrudge a player for taking the biggest payday. Loyalty is for the birds. Players have a very small window to get in and get paid in this sport. Mr. YANKEE FAN TODAY TOMORROW FOREVER used an opt out last month to try to squeeze another $36M out of the Yankees before they called his bluff. It’s not greed, it’s survival. Get paid as much as you can while you can. The owners do it. The players should too.
Anyway, the Yankees had multiple roster holes to fill even if they had been able to re-sign Soto. Now there's one more (very big) thing they have to address. This is the position player group they have at the moment:
C: Austin Wells
1B: DJ LeMahieu
2B: Oswaldo Cabrera
SS: Anthony Volpe
3B: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LF: Jasson Domínguez
CF: Trent Grisham
RF: Aaron Judge
DH: Giancarlo Stanton
Judge might walk 200 times if the Yankees run that lineup out there next year. They won’t, but that is bleak. Judge, Chisholm, and Wells are the only players there who put up league average OBPs this past season, and Wells did it just barely. Judge, Chisholm, and Stanton are the only three who can consistently hit the ball out of the park. The offense with Soto was top heavy. Right now, it’s a one-man army.
First base is in desperate need of an upgrade and I think LaMonte Wade Jr. is the guy to get. Hard pass on a long-term deal for Pete Alonso, a poor defender with a .324 OBP in his last 1,300 plate appearances, and I’d rather not pay big for Christian Walker’s mid-30s. He hasn’t had an OBP higher than .335 since before the pandemic. The Yankees need dudes who don’t make outs. That’s Wade (.376 OBP the last two years), and there’s reason to believe his pull power will play up in Yankee Stadium.
Cody Bellinger feels like a must at this point. Teoscar Hernández has been frequently mentioned as a backup plan to Soto the last few weeks but Plan B can’t be recreating the righty heavy, strikeout-laden lineups of 2019-22. Anthony Santander hits a lot of home runs and that’s great, but he doesn’t do anything else. Doesn’t hit for average, doesn't get on base, doesn't play defense, etc. The Yankees already have one of those guys (Stanton). Paying top dollar for another isn’t the best idea, is it? Not when he’d have to play left field.
The Yankees must bring in some lefty bats (this is another reason to go Wade over Alonso/Walker). Bellinger brings lefty contact skills, pull power, center field defense, and some speed and athleticism. It’s a $32.5M luxury tax charge in 2025, but the Yankees can afford it, and apparently the Cubs are determined to unload it. Bellinger’s only 29 and he does so many things the Yankees need. Much more than Hernández and Santander. I do not love Bellinger. I’d rather have Soto. But he fits the Yankees best as part of Plan B, I think.
I would be stunned if the Yankees pursue Alex Bregman. They’ve been far too outspoken about the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. Willy Adames is off the board now too. I doubt it will happen, but the Yankees should give Gleyber Torres a call and see whether he’s up for a short-term prove yourself deal. One year with a player option, something like that. You know he wants to be a Yankee. If Gleyber’s up for it, the Yankees could go into 2025 with this lineup:
1. 1B LaMonte Wade Jr., LHB
2. RF Aaron Judge, RHB
3. CF Cody Bellinger, LHB
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton, RHB
5. 3B Jazz Chisholm Jr., LHB
6. 2B Gleyber Torres, RHB
7. C Austin Wells, LHB
8. LF Jasson Domínguez, SHB
9. SS Anthony Volpe, RHB
There’s some on-base ability, some power, plenty of left/right balance, and even a little speed. It’s not the Judge and Soto show, but the Yankees would raise the floor of the offense and upgrade several positions without locking themselves into multiple 30-somethings at big money for several years. I am all for the Yankees spending money. All the top unsigned position player free agents are just so blah to me though. The Yankees shouldn't make their situation worse by locking themselves into regrettable contracts.
Without Soto, the offense can only be so good in 2025. Maybe top 10 in the league? It would be closer to No. 10 than No. 1, that’s for sure, and that’s assuming Judge does not decline in his age 33 season. The Yankees can field a good offense next year but probably not a powerhouse lineup unless Wells and Volpe and El Marciano take steps forward, and helping young hitters get better is not exactly a Yankees’ specialty.
There are two ways to improve your run differential, and with an offense that figures to be something less than stellar, the Yankees must improve their run prevention as part of Plan B. The World Series run means the starters all took on a huge workload and have one fewer month to recover this offseason. Between the workload and existing injury concerns, adding a starting pitcher would be a good idea (why not two?). It’s a necessity, really.
All those free agent position players give me the heebie-jeebies because they’re all in their 30s, they’re all two-ish tool guys, and almost all of them are right-handed (Santander’s a switch-hitter). I’m hesitant to swim in those free agent waters. Pitching is a different story. The Yankees can spend on arms, and teams these days are so good with pitch design that they’re better able to keep pitchers productive into their 30s. They may not be aces forever, but they’re less likely to completely collapse and become unrosterable.
Corbin Burnes and Max Fried are both out there and I have to imagine their agents are licking their chops. The Yankees have a Soto-sized wad of cash burning a hole in their pocket and they’re desperate. Same goes for the Blue Jays and Red Sox, plus we can’t rule out the Mets either. The Giants have been linked to Burnes even after signing Adames. Starting pitching prices are already outrageous this offseason. Burnes and Fried are probably getting $200M+ each. I wouldn’t be surprised if Burnes clears $300M.
The Yankees should use some of their leftover SotoBucks to sign Burnes or Fried, and I wouldn’t even turn around and flip Luis Gil or Nestor Cortes for help elsewhere on the roster (unless it's a deal so good that you can't say no). There is so much workload and injury risk in the rotation right now. Keep all those starters. You’ll be glad you did. Nathan Eovaldi is the cheaper free agent rotation option and I like him. After losing Soto though, it’s not really time for half-measures. Get the best pitcher you can, and upgrade the rotation significantly.
And, of course, the bullpen needs help. Poor Clay Holmes appeared in 14 of 15 postseason games. You can’t ask your top relievers to carry that kinda workload in October. The Yankees need more high leverage help and they need more bullpen options in general. Readers, the current bullpen is not good:
Closer: RHP Luke Weaver
Setup: RHP Jake Cousins, RHP Ian Hamilton
Middle: RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Scott Effross, RHP Mark Leiter Jr.
Long: RHP JT Brubaker, RHP Yoendrys Gómez
I understand the Yankees no longer pay big for relievers either via trade or free agency, but my dudes, you can’t rely on waiver claims and non-roster invitees forever. I know little brother just stole your new toy, but you are still the Yankees. You can spend money on a Tanner Scott or a Jeff Hoffman, or trade prospects for a Ryan Helsley or a Devin Williams. I’m not saying be reckless. I’m just saying don’t close off an entire class of players (relievers making real money). Post-Soto, everything must be on the table.
Whatever shape it takes, we’re going to be underwhelmed with Plan B because it’s not Soto. There are only so many free agents and only so many trade candidates, and I’m not sure I see a combination of realistically available players that makes me think the Yankees can win the 95-ish games it will take to win the AL East next year. It could happen, for sure, but it would likely require good health and progress from the kids, and even with that it will be much more difficult without Soto.
The Yankees will survive without Soto. They always do. They won't be as good and they definitely won't be as fun without him, but they'll survive. People have been predicting the downfall of the Yankees for 30 years now, but every time their head gets cut off, another grows back. They are un-kill-able. This stings and I will badly miss watching that man play baseball, but the Winter Meetings are underway. The Yankees have no time to wait around. Plan B begins now.
Comments
There is Sasaki (hope)
Drew
2024-12-10 00:44:35 +0000 UTCPart #6-offseason plan-let’s see your thoughts. We lost Soto. Yeah that sucks and it definitely hurts, but honestly we move on. He was in it for the money only (as we all expected) and not for what we all deem to be the best situation/legacy. Let’s be creative and build a team. One that is multifaceted and not one note (even if that one note is in the 100th percentile like Soto is with his bat). -Including Arbitration estimates & trade values from baseball trade values- Start at $235 million (after non tender deadline). Budget of $315 million. Same as 2024. My previous iterations (with and without Soto) had a $301 figure. I know that it is over the $301 luxury tax threshold and losing Soto gives Hal an excuse not to go over and reset, but I honestly think he is pissed. He gave a really nice offer that Nobody should give him grief about. Cohen was going to keep on increasing the offer. Period. The only way we would have won is if Soto grew a pair and put his foot down. Which he didn’t. That extra $14 million AAV can be used effectively and will be on shorter term deals. So eventually once Lemahieu is off the books in 2 yrs they can reset. It is not like we would be going to the $350 range like the Mets potentially will be and what the Dodgers actually are. Even though they have the resources to do so. I may regret saying this, but I honestly believe the Yankees will win a title before the Mets. I really do. The beauty of this proposed roster is that with the depth guys can cover one another. If Robert gets injured then Wade goes to 1B and Bellinger goes to CF. Donovan can play anywhere. Trade #1 St. Louis rebuilds, Washington gets a cost controlled starter and we get the keadoff hitter we so desperately need. To STL-SP-H. Lalane (from NYY) (5.2 Value); C. R Flores (from NYY) (7.0 value); IF -O. Peraza (from NYY) (2.5 value); SS-S. King (from WAS) (17.5 value) -Total 32.2 value To NYY-IF-B. Donovan (from STL) (25 value) -Total 25 value To WAS-SP-C. Schmidt (from NYY) (24.1 Value)-Total 25 value Deduct-$5.5 Million (Schmidt) Add- $4 Million (Donovan) DIFF- Deduct $1.5 Million Have to overpay slightly in all of these trades to get deal done. Trade #2 Yankees get off Stroman’s deal (he would pitch well in SF) for a great bench piece in L. Wade Jr. Also Taylor Rogers is a needed lefty for the bullpen. And his deal expires. To SFG-SP-M. Stroman (-5.2 value), 1B-B. Rice (8.5 value) -Total of 3.3 value To NYY-RP-Taylor Rogers (-8.5 value) ; 1B-L. Wade Jr. (8.3 value)-Total of -0.2 Value Deduct- $18 Million (Stroman) Add-$4.5 Million (Wade); $11.5 Million (Taylor Rogers)-$16 Million Total DIFF-Deduct $2 Million Trade #3 White Sox get a boatload of prospects for oft rumored trade guys, Cubs get an ace to go along with Steele and Shota. They also get off some of Bellinger’s deal. To Yankees-1B/OF-C. Bellinger (Cubs pay $20 million-$10 million AAV for next two years if Bellinger opts in) (12.3 Value-after money); OF-L. Robert (from CWS) (13.2 value)-TOTAL -25.5 value To Cubs-SP. G. Crochet (from CWS) (53.4 value) To White Sox-OF-S. Jones (from NYY) (19.5 value); IF-R. Arias (from NYY) (11.3 value); C-M. Ballestreros (from Cubs) (19.6 value); SP-C. Horton (from Cubs) (27.5 value)-Total of 77.9 Value Deduct-$0 (prospects) Add-$26 Million -(17.5 Million -Bellinger & $8.5 Million Robert) DIFF-Add $26 Million -Release DJ Lemahieu ($15 million a year for next two years-$30 million total). For the roster space. Sign SP M. Fried to 5 years /$165 million ($33 AAV) (much needed playoff experience and a 2021 World Series Champ)-lower the longer term impact financially by increasing the AAV. He is not a Boras client (unlike Burnes) so I feel like he would take this. Sign RP T. Scott to 4 yr/$58 million ($14.5 AAV) Sign RP T. Kahnle to 2 yrs/$11 million ($5.5 AAV) Total Payroll-310.5 Million -Lineup- 2B-L-Donovan RF-R-Judge 1B-L-Bellinger CF-R-Robert 3B-L-Chisholm DH-R-Stanton C-L-Wells LF-S-Dominguez SS-R-Volpe Bench: C-R-Trevino 1B/OF-L-Wade OF-L-Grisham IF/OF-S-Cabrera IF-Durbin first man up with injuries Pitching: Starters: SP-R-Cole SP-L-Fried SP-R-Gil SP-L-Rodon SP-L-Cortes -SP-W. Warren first man up w/injury- -Relief Pitchers- CL-L-Scott SU-R-Weaver (7th & 8th inning lockdown) SU-L-Rogers SU-R-Kahnle RP-R-Effross RP-R-Leiter, Jr. RP-R-Hamilton Long Man-R-Beeter Notable minor league call-ups for injuries: C-R-C.Navarez IF-R-Durbin IF-R-Vivas OF-R-D. Ellis OF-R-E. Pereira SP-R-W. Warren SP-R-Y. Gomez RP-L-B. Shields RP-R-J. Cousins RP-R-Brubaker Top prospects still in system (multiple years away)- SP-B. Hess SS-G. Lombard Jr. OF-B. Mayea SP-B. Selvidge SP-C. Lagrange SP-K. Carr SP-C. Hampton
Drew
2024-12-10 00:41:37 +0000 UTCDon’t know because of the time zones maybe Japanese players will gravitate to LA and maybe Latinos prefer the East unless an international draft is eventually put in place.
Angel Davila
2024-12-09 23:23:35 +0000 UTCThat would be great. I’d settle for just about anyone young and in a leadership role from smart contenders like the Dodgers, Orioles Rays etc. What kills me is the hubris and the arrogance, which seem to be constants with him these days. Being honest and actually looking at what the franchise is failing at is more instructive than telling everyone how great the process was.
David L.
2024-12-09 22:34:09 +0000 UTCThey're also lacking Japanese players. Should've signed Imanaga last offseason! Of course, Cashman went for the worst option in Stroman instead.
Alex G
2024-12-09 22:30:35 +0000 UTCYea, you can pretty much rule out the fundamentals part until Boone is gone.
Alex G
2024-12-09 22:29:33 +0000 UTCCashman is the biggest problem by far. If Hal just paid Eric Neander to run baseball operations, we would be a very successful franchise because he generally provides the FO with what is needed to pay players. Cashman is just horrid at his job.
Alex G
2024-12-09 22:28:27 +0000 UTCYea but there is no 25 year old Tanaka waiting in the wings to sign here to a team-friendly deal this time like there was post-Cano (I wont mention their other signings which were absolutely horrific).
Alex G
2024-12-09 22:26:49 +0000 UTCSo much doom and gloom, and sure some warranted. Soto was great and it's clear he was only interested in going to the highest bidder and that would be Cohen with his deeper pockets. Let's ask Robbie Cano how that went... It's easy to sit here and point fingers at leadership but they do deserve the benefit of the doubt. The Yankees haven't had a losing season since '92 and in those 33 years since have missed the playoffs just 5 times (6 if you count no postseason in '94..) Trust the process, this team will be built by opening day to be competitive and capable of competing in the postseason again.
Phil
2024-12-09 21:24:36 +0000 UTCI would bet Soto finishing his career somewhere besides Queens before the Hal sells. Next 5-6 years will be glorious for Mets fans to watch soto, but like big contract hitter only types this deal will not age well at the end and be an albatross to payroll and Mets cut bait
Phil
2024-12-09 21:12:54 +0000 UTCThat's silly. They (Hal and Cohen both) are limited by the other teams, who are their partners, not their competitors. Hal knows that if he drives the cost of doing business too high for his partners, they will eventually band together and impose a hard cap that will force him to compete on a level playing field. Imagine what our team would look like if Cashman had to make do with the same payroll as the guys in Tampa or Cleveland? We'd be the Jets of MLB. That's what keeps Hal up at night.
pkmuldy
2024-12-09 20:10:38 +0000 UTCNone of those things are actual impediments. The actual impediment is Hal’s vision and desire. They have a bottomless pit of money. Cohen has a wider one, but the Yankees have one too. They are the New York Yankees. They are a top three brand in global sport. The only limit is ambition.
Zack
2024-12-09 19:45:02 +0000 UTCBecause I live in the real world. If the Soto deal goes bad they're not just going to shrug and give the next guy up another billion dollars. Having Stanton's deal on the books kept us from being in on Harper. Having Rodon's deal on the books likely keeps us out of the market for other starters that have or will become available. Etc., etc.
pkmuldy
2024-12-09 19:39:26 +0000 UTC“Bullet dodged” because they didn’t pay Modern Ted Williams in a non-salary cap sport is proof that you can get anyone to fall for anything. Unless you are a Steinbrenner family member, why on earth would you care!
Zack
2024-12-09 19:29:41 +0000 UTCQuick question - is it too late to become a Dodgers fan? (or god forbit, a Mets fan? I'd get to watch Soto at the plate 600-700 times a year...). Asking for a friend.
DZB
2024-12-09 17:46:17 +0000 UTCOne other comment - the only light I see at the end of the 2025 tunnel is that, with a few decent roster additions, the 90% percentile outcome for this team might be as good or better than the 2024 team. The only problem with that is that it means there is a 90% chance they are worse...
DZB
2024-12-09 17:35:24 +0000 UTCVery depressing to see Soto go. It's a crazy contract in many respects, and if nothing else, it makes the NYY look even stupider for passing on the chance to land Harper when he appeared up for NY. He was so fun to watch and he brought some swagger to the team that it's been lacking. I don't love the FA options, though I'd say that Torres on a 1 year deal would be a great way to fill a hole (Adames is clearly the better player, though it's not that unlikely that they put up similar WAR in 2025, even if you'd bet on Adames > Torres).
DZB
2024-12-09 17:33:35 +0000 UTCThe rot for this team starts at the top, Hal. Worst outcome for this franchise was him talking over the family business. Best case scenario is that he sells. Next best scenario is Cash retires and the front office undergoes a major restructuring because every time I hear Cash these days he sounds like a North Korean minister of Yankee propaganda. This team is really good at defense… it’s right there in front of us etc.
David L.
2024-12-09 16:26:16 +0000 UTCBooneball
Mike
2024-12-09 16:24:44 +0000 UTCNo doubt about that. Look forward to everyone!
Mike
2024-12-09 16:24:07 +0000 UTCThis team has the feel of a boxer who thought he had a plan, then got clocked in the face.
Joseph F
2024-12-09 16:19:51 +0000 UTCBullet dodged. Making a decade-and-a-half, three quarter of a billion dollar commitment to a mercenary, me-first DH was always an absurd notion. Soto is a magician with the bat but the Dodger scouting report about our team (supremely talented but lazy, undisciplined, and prone to kicking the ball around) was Soto (and Gleyber) in a nutshell. Once the bat starts to slip, and it will, the wheels will completely come off the wagon. You don't have to look far to find a generational talent who got ungodly money and stopped caring. We have Jogcarlo ably filling that role for years to come. You also don't have to look far to find a team that moved on from Soto and actually got better. Padres literally did that this year. Hal needs to be made to understand that we're the Yankees and have to be at the front of the AAV line. We can do that while still avoiding ridiculous, decade-plus albatross deals. Sign Bregman, sign Walker, take Bellinger's contract, sign Fried, sign Tanner Scott, off load Stroman's deal and we have professional hitters with plus gloves up and down the lineup, arguably the best rotation in the sport, and come in at around the $340M mark that the Mets have already set.
pkmuldy
2024-12-09 15:58:48 +0000 UTCThis sucks but it would definitely suck worse without Mike's posts. Thank you!
Josh Rinschler
2024-12-09 15:48:07 +0000 UTCGoing for a 90s dynasty vibe of refocusing on pitching and fundamentals, and signing a bunch of pitchers, is also a pretty compelling idea. Of course the “fundamentals” half of that is also something they suck at!
Will
2024-12-09 15:27:04 +0000 UTCSigning a bunch of middling 30+ year olds will kill way more fan enthusiasm than rebuilding would. I'd much rather they invest in their young players as opposed to lighting hundreds of millions of dollars on fire signing Bregman and Alonso types.
Alex G
2024-12-09 15:24:28 +0000 UTCNot gonna lie, the FA options are so underwhelming that I'm like, I dunno, maybe rebuild? Sure, they'd kill all fan enthusiasm, and waste the final prime years of Judge/Cole, and they can't develop young players, and... what was my point again?
Will
2024-12-09 15:23:10 +0000 UTCThe Yanks are cooked. The front office has no idea how to build a team, but they knew how to break one apart: one player at a time with no plan. Point on about the Yankees not being the Yankees. They no longer draw the best talent.
Nicholas Pisano
2024-12-09 15:13:42 +0000 UTCHal is in for a rude awakening if he thinks 90’s nostalgia is going to continue to carry his revenue stream into the 2030’s and 40’s. I’m not saying Soto is the perfect player, but losing him to the Mets after he takes you to the WS for the first time in 15 years, in his only year here, is truly a pathetic outcome. I would bet that the Steinbrenner family sells before that contract ends.
Gus G
2024-12-09 15:10:46 +0000 UTCOkay maybe controversial but the Yankees are lacking in Latin players. Maybe that influences some. There is is a lack of joy and spice on this team
Angel Davila
2024-12-09 15:01:01 +0000 UTCIt's the "new" "Yankee Way (tm) "
Marcos
2024-12-09 14:36:36 +0000 UTCPlan B should be completely revamping the development system and firing Cashman and Boone. They are complete jokes and apparently Hal is perfectly okay with being that as well as long as he employs them.
Alex G
2024-12-09 14:22:12 +0000 UTCThe issue with Plan B, as we saw when they let Cano walk, is Plan B consists of guys you don't know can handle NY and the Yankees. Soto could handle both. Plus trying to replace .400 on base percentage in a player is impossible. There's a reason why he got paid. Fans said in the previous thread that this was the bargain with the Yankees -- we pay through the nose and you give us the best product -- they can no longer fulfill their end of their bargain. Trusting Cashman to cobble together the right brew to replace a 26 yo future Hall of Famer? If you say you have confidence in that right now, you're high. He's a terrible GM and our owner caused this with all the nickel and diming over the years staying out of the deep end until the fans were ready to revolt and they traded for Soto. Hal only acts when he has to. I'm sure season tickets will drop. Fan interest will go down. They just got wedgied by the Mets. I smell a wild card team next year with a lot of Boonie telling us it's all right in front of us. Remember how we copium'd over Ellsbury, Brian McCann and all those stiffs we tried to replace Cano with? I remember. It's why we're no longer the Yankees. We're just another big market team. Huzzah.
Joe
2024-12-09 13:29:17 +0000 UTCThanks for always being here for us, Mike.
Bill Larzelere
2024-12-09 13:17:45 +0000 UTCCan you move to cover a better team Mike?
Marcos
2024-12-09 13:11:47 +0000 UTCPlan B is I'm done with this joke of "tH3 rIcH3sT fR4nChI$e!"... Hal killed everything even remotely good about this team and his dad's legacy.
Marcos
2024-12-09 13:07:04 +0000 UTCI fuckin hate the yankees dude
kyle
2024-12-09 13:01:11 +0000 UTC2 days in a row I’ve checked for an “RAB reaction post” and 5 min later it was there. You’re the best Mike!
Dan G
2024-12-09 12:57:49 +0000 UTC
