December 6th, 2024: Adames, Rizzo, Torres, Bellinger, Bold Predictions, International Free Agency, Mailbag

Happy Juan Soto trade anniversary. The Yankees agreed to acquire Soto from the Padres one year ago today (the trade was made official a day later) and it sure would be swell if they celebrate that anniversary by locking Soto up for the next 12-15 years later today. The other day I revised my Soto signing prediction from next Wednesday to today. So, we’ll see how the next few hours play out. Here is today’s post.

1. Latest hot stove news and rumors. Nothing new and concrete on Juan Soto since Wednesday’s post. A lot of speculation about it reaching $700M and which team is the frontrunner (some say Mets, some say Yankees, some say Red Sox), but again, it’s all been speculation. Jeff Passan (subs. req’d) says this week was the third round of bidding and that it could be wrapped up any day now, and likely no later than the end of the Winter Meetings next week. So, we wait. Here now are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees considering Adames

According to Mark Feinsand, Willy Adames is one of the players the Yankees are considering in the event they’re unable to re-sign Soto. Feinsand makes it clear Adames is part of Plan B and not something the Yankees would do in addition to Soto. A few weeks back it was reported Adames is willing to move off shortstop, which would need to happen with the Yankees since Anthony Volpe is entrenched at short.

Adames, 29, slashed .251/.331/.462 (119 wRC+) with 32 homers and 21 stolen bases in 2024. It was his best season in several years (he hit .228/.304/.433 and 101 wRC+ from 2022-23) and his defense tanked hard. Adames went from +17 DRS/+25 OAA from 2022-23 to -16 DRS/+0 OAA in 2024. A Brewers fan pal of mine said it was noticeable too. Adames lost a step and wasn’t moving as well at short this summer.

If the Yankees miss out on Soto, I’ll try to find time to do a deep dive on Adames, but my quick take is I don’t love the fit. He’d be another high strikeout righty in the lineup (25.1 K% in 2024 was his career low) and he’s a surprisingly bad fastball hitter. There’s also the defensive decline. And, you know:

• Adames best year: .259/.332/.481 (126 wRC+) in 2020

• Carlos Correa career: .275/.354/.472 (127 wRC+)

• Corey Seager career: .290/.360/.512 (136 wRC+)

• Trea Turner career: .296/.348/.481 (122 wRC+)

You can’t unring the bell, but signing Adames after passing on all those other shortstops would drive me nuts. I don’t know how many times I wrote “sign a shortstop and move him to third base when Volpe is ready,” and now the Yankees are considering it with an inferior player and without getting all the production in the meantime. What’s done is done, but damn man, was this not foreseeable?

FanGraphs and MLBTR peg Adames for a six-year contract in the $150M to $160M range and that’s the kinda big money long-term deal for a non-elite free agent that I am against, plus I don't love the roster fit. The Yankees need a second or third baseman and who’s available is who’s available, but I’d rather the Yankees turn to the trade market than give Adames six years (and forfeit two draft picks and international bonus pool money) if they lose Soto.

“No plans” to reunite with Rizzo, Torres

I did not see it myself, but those who did say Jack Curry reported the Yankees have “no plans” to bring back Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres during Monday’s edition of Yankee Hot Stove on YES. Plans can change, and just because the Yankees aren’t planning to bring Rizzo/Torres back now doesn’t mean they’ll feel the same way later, but yeah, this passes the sniff test. (Plus there’s zero reason to doubt Curry.)

It’s funny, I thought it was more likely the Yankees would bring Rizzo back than Torres even though Rizzo is obviously the one they need to avoid. He’s 35, he hasn’t hit for the better part of two seasons, he has a bad back, etc. The Yankees love Rizzo though. He’s close with Aaron Judge and very popular in the clubhouse too. I mean, come on, tell me re-signing Rizzo and saying “we expect him to be productive now that he’s had an offseason to get healthy” isn’t something you could see the Yankees doing.

As for Gleyber, it feels like the Yankees made up their mind three years ago that they would let him leave as a free agent. He’s done everything but get down on his hands and knees and beg for an extension, but there haven’t been any talks, and apparently they’re not bringing him back. What the Yankees are going to do at second base, I do not know, but the second base free agent options behind Torres stink …

1. Gleyber Torres: +3.0 projected 2025 WAR
2. Jose Iglesias: +1.4 WAR
3. Jorge Polanco: +1.2 WAR
4. Brendan Rodgers: +1.2 WAR
5. Several tied at +0.9 WAR

… and the internal options aren’t great. It’s Caleb Durbin, Oswald Peraza, and Jorbit Vivas. The Yankees could slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. over to second, which just shifts the hole to third base. I don’t get the sense they are, but I hope the Yankees are open-minded to bring Torres back if the market pushes him toward a one-year prove yourself contract. The odds we’re going to be sitting here on June 1st wishing they’d brought Gleyber back are annoyingly high.

Pereira, Vivas get fourth options

This is tangentially related to the hot stove, so I’m sticking it here: Everson Pereira and Jorbit Vivas have been given fourth minor league options, according to Joel Sherman. (Yoendrys Gómez was not, apparently.) The Yankees can send Pereira and Vivas to Triple-A Scranton next year without passing them through waivers. Oswald Peraza is definitely out of options (2024 was his fourth option). It’s MLB roster or waivers for him.

I assume Pereira (elbow surgery) and Vivas (broken orbital) getting fourth options had something to do with their 2024 injuries, but who knows. The rules are confusing. Either way, it’s great news for two talented young players who are not MLB ready. Pereira, 24 in April, and Vivas, 23 in March, get to go to Triple-A no questions asked next year, and play a full year at the level to finish off their development. Good news.

Miscellany

It was only a matter of time until this rumor popped up: The Yankees are among the teams that have reached out to the Cubs about Cody Bellinger, according to Bruce Levine. He adds the Cubs don’t seem willing to eat money to move Bellinger, nor will they give him away. That’s always how it starts, right? We’re not paying a cent and you’re giving us good players in return. We'll see how they feel in a few weeks. Bellinger is a $32.5M luxury tax charge in 2025 with a player option for 2025. He wasn’t bad in 2024 (.266/.325/.426 and 109 wRC+), but he wasn’t amazing either, and his underlying numbers the last two years strongly suggest the 2024 version is the real him, not the 2023 version (.307/.356/.525 and 136 wRC+). Bellinger is probably the first player I’m going to examine as Plan B if the Yankees don’t re-sign Soto, which is another way of saying I hope they re-sign Soto … And finally, earlier this week I passed along a report that the Yankees have held calls with Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and other top free agents. A few days later Jon Heyman said the Yankees could possibly do both Soto and Burnes (or presumably Soto and Fried), but they’d then look to cut salary elsewhere. On his radio show, Michael Kay added the Yankees had a 90-minute Zoom call with Fried that “supposedly went very well.” Anyone willing to sit through a 90-minute Zoom call has questionable makeup and should be red flagged. For real though, Fried is excellent and probably underrated. I’m not sure I’ll have time to dive into him before he signs, but he’s obviously very good and would help the 2025 Yankees. Whether the years and money make sense is another matter. The same goes for Burnes.

2. Reviewing my bold predictions for 2024. Back before the season, as I’ve done every season since 2017, I made a bunch of bold predictions for the Yankees. I was told my bold predictions weren’t very bold. I guess I should’ve gone with something like Gleyber Torres will take batting practice during an earthquake, or Aaron Boone will get ejected for something a fan said, or Oswaldo Cabrera will score from second on a sac fly, or Tommy Kahnle will throw 56 straight changeups. Stuff like that would never happen!

For real though, I’ll remember to be more bold next season. Or at least I’ll try to be more bold next season. It’s easier said than done. I do try to get a few of these right, after all. Anyway, it’s about time we go back and review this year’s bold predictions, because what’s the point if we’re not going to circle back and see what happened? Here are my 10 bold predictions for the 2024 Yankees.

Ian Hamilton will be the first reliever used

I went oddly specific with the first prediction and said Hamilton will be the first guy out of the bullpen in 2024. As in the very first reliever used. It’s easy to forget now, but Hamilton was firmly in the Circle of Trust™ in 2023, and the Yankees stretched him out to two innings in Spring Training. With Gerrit Cole hurt, Nestor Cortes got the Opening Day start, upping the odds a righty would be the first guy out of the bullpen.

I was wrong. Hamilton was the second reliever used in 2024. Not the first. Cortes started Game 1 in Houston, completed five innings, then Jonathan Loáisiga came out of the bullpen to start the sixth inning. Loáisiga threw scoreless sixth and seventh innings, then Hamilton tossed a scoreless eighth. He was the Opening Day setup man. Here’s the box score. I am off to an 0-for-1 start with my bold predictions.

Aaron Judge will start fewer than 74 games in center field

I picked 74 games because it is the number of games Judge started in center in 2022, when he took over the position because Aaron Hicks wasn’t getting the job done and Harrison Bader didn’t get healthy until September (after being acquired at the trade deadline). No way would Judge start that many games in center again, right? Consider:

• Judge said his toe would require “constant maintenance” in Spring Training.

• The Yankees had two-time Gold Glover Trent Grisham on the bench.

• Giancarlo Stanton could get hurt, freeing up DH for Judge (and Juan Soto).

• Jasson Domínguez was on the mend and figured to come up at some point.

Rather than cut back on Judge’s center field workload, the Yankees went in the opposite direction, and cut back on their load management. We saw consistent lineups day after day and the regulars getting less rest than in the past, at least before injuries hit. Judge started 158 of 162 games in 2024: 105 in center, 41 at DH, seven in right, and five in left. The four games Judge did not start were:

• Game 68 in Kansas City: Midway through a stretch of 13 games in 13 days.

• Game 76 in Baltimore: Sore hand after being hit by a pitch the day before.

• Game 160 vs. Pirates: First game after clinching AL East.

• Game 162 vs. Pirates: Scratched from the lineup because of the rain.

Judge did not even pinch-hit in those four games. Four complete games off. The Yankees went 2-2 in the four games (won Games 68 and 162, lost the others). I figured Judge would make 70 or so starts in center, and the rest would go to Domínguez and Grisham. He wound up starting 105 games in center field. Good for the Yankees, bad for my bold predictions. I am 0-for-2.

DJ LeMahieu will have an OBP > SLG season

Oy vey. I got this one right, but it’s sad. LeMahieu hit .204/.269/.259 (52 wRC+) in 228 plate appearances this year. He had nearly twice as many GIDP (13) as extra-base hits (7), and remember, LeMahieu’s first hit of the season was a ground ball Anthony Rizzo seemingly ran into intentionally to prevent a 6-4-3 GIDP (video). That gets scored as a hit. It sure looked a GIDP ball though.

OBP > SLG is the Willie Randolph special and a lot of players have had a lot of really good seasons while doing the OBP > SLG thing. Brett Gardner hit .277/.383/.379 (112 wRC+) in 569 plate appearances in 2010, for example. And then sometimes you have a 2024 LeMahieu season, or a 2013 Chris Stewart season (.293 OBP and .273 SLG). Bad, bad year for LeMahieu. But hey, at least he gave me my first bold prediction win. I’m 1-for-3.

Anthony Rizzo will lead the AL in GIDP

A Yankee did lead the AL in GIDP, but it wasn’t Rizzo. It was Aaron Judge with 22 GIDP. That was split into 11 GIDP in his first 39 games and 11 GIDP in his final 119 games. Rizzo finished with 7 GIDP in 92 games around his broken arm, so he wasn’t even on a league-leading GIDP pace. My thinking was Rizzo would hit cleanup most of the year, Judge and Juan Soto would get on base a ton, and Rizzo GIDPs would come with the territory.

The cleanup spot had only 14 GIDP this past season, 12th fewest among the 30 teams. That’s despite Soto hitting second and Judge hitting third all year, and them finishing 1-2 in OBP by a comical amount:

1. Aaron Judge: .458 OBP
2. Juan Soto: .419 OBP
3. Vlad Guerrero Jr.: .396 OBP
4. Yordan Alvarez: .392 OBP
5. Shohei Ohtani: .390 OBP

What I failed to consider is that, when Judge and Soto reach base, it’s not often they stop at first base. Judge led baseball with 58 home runs, so, right off the bat, that’s 58 times the cleanup hitter batted with the bases empty even though Judge technically reached base as the previous batter. Soto hit 41 home runs and 31 doubles. Judge had a career high 36 doubles. They reached base a lot. Just not first base.

The Yankees as a team led baseball with 138 GIDP, just ahead of the Padres (133 GIDP). They did not lead baseball in GIDP rate though. They were eighth at 11.0% and the Rockies led at 12.3%. The MLB average was 9.8%. That’s how often you hit into a double play in a double play opportunity (i.e. runner on first with less than two outs). The Yankees led MLB in GIDP but their cleanup hitters were in the bottom half of the league in GIDP, partly because Soto and Judge skipped over first base so frequently. I am 1-for-4.

The Yankees will trade for a third baseman

Nailed this one. If I really wanted to be bold, I should have said the Yankees would trade for a center fielder and put him at third base, but it seemed like a gimme that the Yankees would trade for hot corner help. They did exactly that with Jazz Chisholm Jr. Chisholm started 94 games in center with the Marlins and two at second base right before the trade deadline, which was an obvious “hey look, he can still play the infield” showcase for interested teams.

The thing is, the Yankees didn’t necessarily acquire Chisholm with the idea that they’d put him at third base full-time. The plan was to move him around and play him some at second base (over Gleyber Torres, who was still struggling at the time), some in center field (whenever Aaron Judge needed a break), and maybe even some in left field (over the slumping Alex Verdugo). Third base was a possibility, but not The Plan.

Then, before his second game as a Yankee, Chisholm took a few ground balls at third, told the Yankees he was comfortable, and that was it. He was the third baseman the rest of the season. I thought the Yankees might trade for Isaac Paredes or J.D. Davis (remember when “the Yankees should sign Davis” was a thing in March?), but no, they brought in Chisholm, who unexpectedly solved the third base problem. Halfway through my bold predictions, I am 2-for-5.

The Yankees will set a franchise record for pitchers used

So close! The Yankees used 33 different pitchers this year, including Oswaldo Cabrera and Jose Trevino (twice!), and I explicitly said position player pitchers count for this bold prediction. If you take the mound, you’re a pitcher. I figured with Gerrit Cole hurt, unsettled middle relief, and the continuing trend toward revolving door bullpens, the Yankees would use more pitchers than ever before.

Alas and alack, 33 different pitchers tied the franchise record set in 2014 and matched in 2015 and 2022. Tie does not go to the bold predictor. The Yankees couldn’t use one more pitcher? Tanner Tully (March 30 to April 1) and Cody Morris (April 19-26 and May 30 to June 1) both had stints on the MLB roster without getting into a game. Couldn’t use one of them at some point to set the record and give me the win? Bah. I am 2-for-6.

Austin Wells and Will Warren will both get Rookie of the Year votes

Right idea, wrong pitcher. And the thing is, I made my bold predictions after Luis Gil was named the No. 5 starter and Warren was sent to Triple-A. I didn’t expect Gil to pitch so well that he’d win Rookie of the Year (I don’t think the Yankees did either) and figured Warren would get a chance at some point, and run with it. He did get a chance later in the season, but he didn’t run with it. Warren allowed 27 runs in 22.2 MLB innings.

Even before the season, you could see the path to Wells getting regular playing time and performing well enough to get Rookie of the Year consideration. He can hit and his defense has (greatly) improved, and that’s most of the battle right there. It’s hard being a rookie catcher though. This wasn’t a lay up. Before Wells, the last catcher to finish top three in the Rookie of the Year voting was Gary Sánchez in 2016.

Wells played good defense all year and hit very well in July and August, which was enough to finish third in the Rookie of the Year voting behind Gil and Colton Cowser. Gil really won Rookie of the Year, eh? Cool. I had the right idea. Wells and a Yankees pitcher would get Rookie of the Year votes. I just had the wrong pitcher, and I’d be lying if I said I expected them both to be finalists for the award. This drops me to 2-for-7.

George Lombard Jr. will finish 2024 as the top ranked shortstop in the system

I would have liked to have recapped my bold predictions sooner, but I had to wait for the Rookie of the Year voting for the previous prediction, and I needed an updated Yankees prospects list for this bold prediction. Thankfully, Baseball America (subs. req'd) released their top 10 Yankees prospects earlier this week. The write-up is behind the paywall, but Double-A Somerset posted the top 10 on social media, so here it is:

1. OF Jasson Domínguez
2. SS George Lombard Jr.
3. SS Roderick Arias
4. RHP Ben Hess
5. RHP Bryce Cunningham
6. OF Spencer Jones
7. RHP Chase Hampton
8. RHP Will Warren
9. LHP Henry Lalane
10. C/1B Rafael Flores

Jones all the way down at No. 6 and Flores in at No. 10 are conversations for another time. The important thing is Lombard is indeed the top ranked shortstop in the farm system, so this is a win for me. And for the record, Baseball America (subs. req’d) and I both had Arias ahead of Lombard before the season. There was a lot of Arias buzz coming into 2024. I thought Lombard had a chance to shine this year though.

Still only 19, Lombard slashed .232/.344/.348 (105 wRC+) with 24.0 K% with Low-A Tampa before a late promotion to High-A Hudson Valley. Arias, 20, slashed .233/.335/.393 (111 wRC+) with 31.0 K% with the Tarpons. They posted almost identical contact quality numbers (90th percentile exit velocity, etc.), though Lombard had big edges in chase rate (25.0% vs. 31.3%) and whiff rate against non-fastballs (29.0% vs. 44.7%). 

That is not to say Arias had a bad season or is a bad prospect. He finished the season extremely well (.276/.390/.471 and 146 wRC+ in his final 48 games) and his top end exit velocities are very good for his age group. He’s also a switch-hitter with two swings to refine. Lombard is just the more polished player at the moment, with a better approach and contact skills. More importantly, I am now 3-for-8.

A Yankee will win Comeback Player of the Year

Nope. Garrett Crochet won. I think Crochet had a breakout year, not a comeback year, but he won the award, so this is an L. The Yankees had plenty of Comeback Player of the Year candidates: Nestor Cortes, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Rodón, Giancarlo Stanton, maybe even Jonathan Loáisiga. Crochet won though. The press release says Rodón received some votes, but that doesn’t help me. I am 3-for-9.

The Yankees will win more postseason games than they lose

Closing out with a win. Me, not the Yankees. They went 3-1 in the ALDS against the Royals, 4-1 in the ALCS against the Guardians, then 1-4 in the World Series against the Dodgers. That adds up to an 8-6 postseason record and a bold prediction win for me. It is not a given the World Series loser will win more games than they lose. This is a possible path …

• 2-1 in Wild Card Series

• 3-2 in Division Series

• 4-3 in Championship Series

• 0-4 in World Series

• 9-10 overall

… but it is impossible to win more games than you lose in the postseason without winning at least one round. That was really at the center of this bold prediction. The Yankees would win at least one round and make some kinda run beyond a quick Wild Card Series or ALDS ouster. They did go out quickly once they ran into a non-AL Central team, but eight wins and six losses equals a 4-for-10 finish for this year's bold predictions. I’ll take it.

3. The Yankees and the 2025 international signing period. The 2024 international amateur signing period closes Sunday, Dec. 15th, so in a little more than a week. There’s then a 30-day quiet period in which there are no signings (and, ostensibly, no contract talks) before the 2025 signing period opens on Wednesday, Jan. 15th. The 2025 signing period is when Roki Sasaki is expected to sign.

Per Ben Badler, the Yankees will have a $6,261,600 bonus pool for the 2025 signing period. They did not sign a qualified free agent forfeit any pool money last offseason, so that’s their full allotment. Teams can trade for additional 60%, meaning the Yankees can max out their 2025 pool at $10,018,560. Where is that money going? Here’s the latest on who the Yankees are expected to sign come Jan. 15th.

What about their remaining 2024 pool money?

Before we get to 2025, let’s put a bow on 2024. According to the Associated Press, the Yankees have $1,487,200 in 2024 bonus pool space remaining, and Eric Longenhagen said they still have room to trade for another $1.5M or so back in August. Obviously the Yankees would love to give that money to Sasaki, but he won’t sign between now and Dec. 15th. So, where does that leftover $1,487,200 go?

We have an answer. Earlier this week Badler (subs. req’d) reported the Yankees are likely to sign Dominican SS Stiven Marinez, a “sweet-swinging, lefthanded hitter to whom they have long been connected before the signing period closes on Dec. 15.” It sounds like the plan is to sign Marinez regardless. Either the Yankees will use their remaining 2024 pool money to sign him before Dec. 15th, or they’ll sign him as part of the 2025 signing period come Jan. 15th (assuming they miss out on Sasaki, of course).

Annoyingly, the Orioles signed a kid named Stiven Martinez to a $950,000 bonus earlier this year. The 2024 signing period had a Stiven Martinez (Dominican RHB OF) and a Stiven Marinez (Dominican LHB SS). One T makes all the difference. I have no info on Stiven Marinez beyond the “sweet-swinging, lefthanded hitter” thing Badler wrote because Stiven Martinez comes up every time I search for info on the kid.

That’s where the $1,487,200 in leftover 2024 bonus pool money (or at least part of it) is going though, now that Sasaki is expected to sign during the 2025 signing period. The Yankees will use it on Stiven Marinez (not Stiven Martinez). That question has now been answered.

Yankees expected to sign Cedeno

As for the 2025 signing period, the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican SS Manny Cedeno, reports Badler (subs. req’d). Badler’s rankings are in order of expected bonus (he doesn’t list the money), not talent, and he has Cedeno at No. 14 on his list. MLB Pipeline ranks Cedeno as the No. 10 prospect in the signing period. Here’s a chunk of their free scouting report (here’s video):

There is a ton of bat speed to dream on from Cedeno’s balanced and smooth right-handed swing. He does an excellent job of shifting his weight in the box to tap into power that is just beginning to emerge. His plus athleticism aids him in the box as he displays quick hands with almost no stiffness to his approach. If the pop begins to come consistently, Cedeno could be a fast riser through an organization’s ranks … Cedeno holds down (shortstop) with consistency due to his supremely smooth actions up the middle. He’s got a solid throwing arm that he sacrifices a bit of zip on in order for it to be consistently accurate. Scouts well versed in what helps players stick at the six speak to the softness in which he receives the ball and how he uses his feet to put himself in position to make a variety of plays. A high-floor player, Cedeno boasts all the raw tools that clubs seek out of a shortstop.

Cedeno was born on Aug. 14th, 2008, and a) good freaking lord I’m old, and b) he’s the second youngest player on MLB Pipeline’s top 50 international prospects list. Shortstops and center fielders are the name of the game in international free agency. They’re typically the best athletes available and thus best able to move down the defensive spectrum in the future. An Aug. 2008 birthday. Just put me in the ground already.

Yankees also expected to sign Castillo

Also per Badler (subs. req’d), the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican OF Ruben Castillo as part of the 2025 signing period. Castillo is No. 23 on Badler’s list of expected bonuses and he is not among MLB Pipeline’s top 50 international prospects. Here is part of Badler’s write-up (video):

Castillo has quick hands, and while his swing can get big at times, he is typically on time and makes frequent contact … with enough strength to occasionally drive a ball out to his pull side, but he projects more of a doubles and triples threat than a big home run hitter. He’s an above-average runner who moves around well in center field.

Castillo will turn 17 a few days before the signing period opens on Jan. 15th. He was eligible to sign during the 2024 signing period, though it sounds like he didn’t really break out and jump onto the radar until this summer. Rather than sign for whatever he could get before Dec. 15th, Castillo is waiting until the bonus pools reset on Jan. 15th and getting a larger bonus (whatever that number ends up being).

Signing bonus information is kept under wraps before the signing period opens these days, and really, I don’t care too much about how the Yankees distribute their bonus pool. They’re going to use all of it, and there are good cases to be made for giving most of it to one top prospect (the Jasson Domínguez plan) or spreading it around on several players. With players this young, the scouting and projection is so inexact.

It sounds like, based on the current information, Cedeno and Castillo will be the two big prizes of the 2025 signing period, with Marinez coming in just under the wire as part of the 2024 signing period. A year from now, we’ll begin to hear the usual rumblings about MLB wanting an international draft. That and a salary cap tend to be the first nuggets made public ahead of CBA talks (the CBA expires in Dec. 2026).

4. Rapid fire thoughts. This broke too late Monday night to get into Tuesday’s post, but old pal Kyle Higashioka signed a two-year deal worth $13.5M with the Rangers. He gets $5.75M in 2025 and $6.75M in 2026, with a $1M buyout on a $7M mutual option. The Yankees drafted Higashioka out of high school in 2008, he played parts of 10 seasons in the minors before getting called up for the first time in 2017, he didn’t stick in the big leagues for good until 2020, and he didn’t become a free agent until age 34. He’ll make almost as much in 2025 as he’s made in his entire career to date. I’m happy for Higgy. Seems like a cool dude and I know he was very popular with his teammates in New York … In other former Yankees news, Luis Severino got three years and $67M from the Athletics. You think his agent forgot to tell him about the Sacramento thing? It’s the largest contract in franchise history, beating Eric Chavez’s $66M extension back in March 2004. Severino gets a $10M signing bonus (which keeps the MLBPA off the A’s back about where their revenue sharing money is going) and an opt out after the second year. Figure I’ll be a trade candidate at the 2026 deadline, assuming he stays healthy and pitches well, something he hasn’t done often the last few years. The Baby Bombers are out there signing what could be their final contracts. Time flies, man.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Chris asks: So here's a crazy idea for an offer to Soto to reduce the luxury tax hit. So let's start with your proposal for a 15-year, $50 million a year offer. Then tack on another 10 years at only $2 million a year. With an opt out after 15 years. If he's still productive after 15 years, and the market has continued to increase (15 years ago the top team payroll was about $206M for the Yanks, which wouldn't even make the lowest luxury tax threshold today) it's not inconceivable he opts out because someone is still willing to pay him $20 million for one year, or $30 million for 2 years even at age 41 in 2040. Who knows? But even if he doesn't opt out, and even if the Yankees release him at that point, the extra $20 million will have saved many, many times that cost in reduced luxury tax payments over the life of the contract. As you pointed out, $750 million for 15 years is a $50 million a year luxury tax penalty. But $770 million over 25 years comes to "only" $30.8 million a year luxury tax penalty. The savings in year 1 would almost be greater than the cost in years 16 through 25. The problem is that Boras can take this concept and this offer to all the other teams as well, and they can use it the same way. But at least if he takes the offer from the Yanks, it would give us more flexibility going forward. And if MLB is allowing Ohtani's huge deferred money contract, I have trouble seeing how they balk at this contract. Especially since they could be getting ready to go to war w/ the Yanks and other teams over local and national streaming rights.

This is the sorta thing MLB would flag as blatant luxury tax circumvention. It's not exactly subtle. Adding extra years at such a low salary is obviously intended to lower the average annual value and thus luxury tax hit, so the league would not approve the contract. Deferrals, which are more common than it seems a lot of people realize (Rafael Devers, Francisco Lindor, Chris Sale, Christian Yelich, and many others have them), are written into the CBA. Article XXIII of the CBA, which is 30-something pages long, says deferrals of any amount and over any time period and with any interest rate are allowed. In this hypothetical situation, where the salary on the back end of the contract is so low, it’s clear what the Yankees would be doing. I think you’d have better luck signing Juan Soto to a straight 25-year, $770M contract with the same average annual value throughout. Trust me, if getting around the luxury tax were as easy as tacking a few extra years with a low salary onto the end of the contract, it would happen all the time. (NHL regularly teams did this before the league fixed the rule.)

Alessandro asks: Would you be comfortable taking on Arenado if it was as a sweetener to pry Nootbaar loose from the Cards? With someone like Stro/Cortes (DJ?) going back to offset salary, do you think that's possible, and what could a deal look like?

That would be a tough pill to swallow, but to gain access to Lars Nootbaar and his three years of control, yeah, I would be okay with taking on Nolan Arenado at three years and $64M ($21.3M per year). We would be flexing our financial muscle to essentially buy Nootbaar, and it’s not like Arenado is useless. He’s just trending down. He is still a very good third baseman and a league average-ish bat. You can live with him as your No. 6 or 7 hitter in 2025 (before dreading his at-bats in 2026 and 2027).

For what it’s worth, the Trade Values site values Arenado at -$20.8M and Nootbaar at +$56.2M, so we’d be coming out way ahead on a straight salary dump deal. To even that out, we’d have to kick in Spencer Jones (+$19.5M, which has apparently been updated since the Offseason Plan) and then some. If we send DJ LeMahieu (full no-trade clause) or Marcus Stroman the other way to offset salary, we’d have to kick in even more to even the trade out. Nootbaar’s very good and very valuable. I’d love him on the Yankees.

The x-factor is how badly do the Cardinals want to unload Arenado and his money? Attendance this past season was their lowest in a non-pandemic season since 1997 and there are indications they will reduce payroll. 2025 is the biggest money year remaining on Arenado’s contract. St. Louis owes him $21M once you factor in the deferrals and what the Rockies are paying him. It’s $21M in actual dollars next year that they’re trying to unload (plus more in 2026 and 2027).

My guess is the Cardinals are not so desperate to unload Arenado that they’re willing to give up Nootbaar as a sweetener, even if they get a few good pieces in return. They seem to be optimistic they can move Arenado (who apparently wants out) and shed salary that way. Even eating a few million is better than using Nootbaar as a sweetener. Eating money to move Arenado + trading Nootbaar for full value is the way to go. If they’re open to it though, yeah, I’d take on Arenado and his money to get Nootbaar.

Sean asks: You mentioned it Tuesday, and it’s been bugging me, so: what was up with Tommy Tightpants’ whole “61 consecutive changeups” thing? Is there pitch data on his FB to suggest that he really did lose confidence / ability on that pitch earlier in the playoffs? Do you think the coaching staff sat him down at any point and asked what was going on (or should they have)? 

Matt Blake and Tommy Kahnle were both asked about it during the postseason and their answers boiled down to “it’s a really good pitch and as long as he locates, we’re comfortable throwing it this much.” They mentioned his arm action and deception – Kahnle looks like he’s putting everything he has into every pitch, then this little floater comes out at you – and said the key was throwing it for strikes so he got ahead and hitters couldn’t sit on it. Blake and the coaching staff were 100% onboard with this. Kahnle didn’t go rogue.

It is counterintuitive though, right? It's in the name. A changeup is intended to change up speeds off something else, typically a fastball but not always. Throw it over and over and you’re not changing up off anything, and your changeup runs the risk of becoming a batting practice fastball. That’s why being able to land it for strikes is so important, ditto the deception and movement. Kahnle’s changeup is notable for its drop more than its side-to-side movement …

… and he does sell it well. He also had a 44.5% zone rate with the pitch, a top 15 mark in baseball and well above the 38.5% league average for changeups. Kahnle’s results on his changeup were exceptional this year: .157 AVG, .264 SLG, 63.0 GB%, 83.7 mph exit velocity, 38.9% whiffs. It’s one of the best pitches in baseball. Grounders, weak contact, whiffs, effective against lefties and righties.

It’s funny, when pitchers spam sliders, no one bats an eye. When someone does it with a changeup, it’s a big deal because it’s so uncommon. We think well, you’re not changing up off anything, how can it still be effective? But it can be. The movement and deception can make it work. It’s one of those things that doesn’t seem like it should work, but it does. Kahnle threw all those consecutive changeups and was great in the postseason up until Game 5 of the World Series, when both bullpens were on fumes.

My concerns with Kahnle are more the usual aging reliever stuff (35 years old, shoulder trouble each of the last two years, fastball velocity fading, etc.) than his reliance on his changeup. It’s still a great pitch, so he throws it a lot (73% in 2024). Lots of relievers do that with fastballs and sliders. Kahnle does it with his changeup. It’s unconventional, but it works, and he took it to the extreme in the postseason. 

Steve asks: If Gleyber Torres spent the last six years with the Texas Rangers, would he profile as someone the Yankees would target to hit lead off and play 2B?

I’m inclined to think the Yankees would have a similar evaluation of him. The anti-Gleyber fans might feel differently, there’s a chance they’d see a soon-to-be 28-year-old with a strong track record coming off a down year as a good buy-low opportunity, but I think the Yankees would have a similar evaluation of him, which apparently means wanting nothing to do with him long-term. When you watch a team or a player every single day, you see every little flaw and imperfection, and it can be easy to overrate that stuff. It is the job of the front office to see through the noise and make a big picture evaluation. I don’t think their evaluation of Gleyber would be drastically different if he’d have had the exact same 2018-24 seasons with the Rangers or Rockies or Cardinals or whichever team.

Sandeep asks: Jazz question. What happened to him needing TJS? First he was done for the year. Then he just came back and played the rest of the season but didn’t hit nearly as well. He is charitably one of the worst at sliding I’ve ever seen and I could have sworn he should have tweaked his elbow another dozen times before the end of the year. Now it’s almost December and I haven’t heard a peep about his elbow.

Nothing to update. I wouldn’t go as far as to say Jazz Chisholm Jr. is fine, he still has a partial tear in his UCL, but surgery was not recommended, and he had no issues with it after returning. The injury is in his left elbow, his non-throwing elbow and his back elbow when hitting. All UCL tears are bad, but Chisholm has the least bad tear because it’s in his non-dominant elbow. It’s apparently not something he can make worse during the normal course of baseball (a throw, a swing, etc.). He could make it worse on a fall, a collision, an awkward slide, something like that, but a player could get hurt any number of ways when that happens. Nothing to update though. Jazz doesn’t need surgery for the injury.

Anthony asks: Hypothetical: The NL rallies and beats the AL in the 2009 All Star Game. Everything about the season stays the same except the Phillies now have home field advantage in the WS. What changes? Do the Yankees still win in 6?

The AL won the 2009 All-Star Game 4-3 in St. Louis. Carl Crawford robbed Brad Hawpe of a go-ahead home run in the seventh (maybe, it’s not clear the ball was getting out) and Adam Jones broke the tie with an eighth inning sac fly against Heath Bell. Joe Nathan stranded runners at second and third in the bottom of the eighth, and Mariano Rivera had a 1-2-3 ninth. That clinched home field advantage for the AL in the World Series, which was such a silly rule I can’t believe it actually existed, but it did.

The Yankees won the 2009 World Series in six games and went 2-1 at home and 2-1 on the road, though the Citizens Bank Park games were much more high scoring. Here are the final scores:

• Game 1 in Yankee Stadium: 6-1 Phillies

• Game 2 in Yankee Stadium: 3-1 Yankees

• Game 3 in Citizens Bank Park: 8-5 Yankees

• Game 4 in Citizens Bank Park: 7-4 Yankees

• Game 5 in Citizens Bank Park: 8-6 Phillies

• Game 6 in Yankee Stadium: 7-3 Yankees 

For the Yankees, that’s 11 runs scored and 10 runs allowed at home, and 21 runs scored and 17 runs allowed on the road. All the offense in Philadelphia was not just the ballpark though, right? The Citizens Bank Park games had the back of each team’s rotation, the offenses got their second looks at Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, they got their second (and third looks) at the other team’s relievers, etc.

Lee shut the Yankees down in Game 1. The big question is would AJ Burnett have had that same Game 2 performance on the road with a hostile crowd giving him the business? If the answer is no, the Yankees would have been in major trouble even with three home games coming up. Burnett had a 3.51 ERA at home and a 4.59 ERA on the road in 2009. Maybe Game 2 on the road would’ve spooked him into a loss.

Despite that, I’m going to say yes, the Yankees still would’ve won the 2009 World Series even without home field advantage because that team was that damn good. They would’ve won in seven games rather than six. Lose Games 1-2 in Philadelphia, wins Games 3-5 at home (with Burnett going in front of the friendly crowd in Game 5), lose Game 6, then win Game 7 on the road because the Phillies didn’t use Lee on short rest in that series, and the Yankees would have had Sabathia on the mound against Not Lee.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)