November 21st, 2024: Soto, Durbin, Rodriguez, Coleman, Mailbag

Reminder: The Offseason Plan is going live tomorrow. I need to read through it once more today and transfer it over from Google Docs to Patreon, which is a surprisingly annoying process (every Patreon update seems designed specifically to make my life more difficult), but it’s going live Friday. I am ready to get it out the door and move on to other offseason business, including a Christian Walker deep dive. He’s the popular first base target right now and is worth investigating. Anyway, here is Friday’s post on Thursday to accommodate the Offseason Plan.

1. Obsessive Soto Watch. Juan Soto and Scott Boras are still meeting with teams. The Yankees had their meeting Monday, the Dodgers were scheduled for the middle of this week, and the Rays will apparently get a chance at some point. The Rays, eh? The Rays meeting with Soto is like when I look at $75,000 a month apartments on Zillow because I’m bored. Anyway, here’s the latest on the Great Juan:

• Aaron Boone, Brian Cashman, Randy Levine, Omar Minaya, and Hal Steinbrenner represented the Yankees at their meeting with Soto/Boras and they are “encouraged” about his desire to remain in pinstripes, per Bob Klapisch. Soto asked the Yankees about their player development and commitment to winning, and Hal said upgrades to the rosters are planned.

• Hal told Gary Phillips that Soto was informed that, if he returns to the Yankees, he would like him to have the same relationship with ownership as Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge. That strongly implies Soto would have input into personnel moves and other big decisions, if he wants it.

• The Phillies are planning to meet with Soto/Boras at some point but haven’t done so yet, according to Jon Heyman. This first round of meetings was essentially a meet-and-greet, particularly for the owners. No offers are believed to have been extended. Those will come later.

“We had a good meeting. It was a very honest back and forth dialogue, a couple hours long,” Steinbrenner told Ron Blum at the owners meetings Wednesday. "… We listen to our fans, right? Our fans really enjoyed having him in New York. He is definitely a significant part of why we got to the World Series. I’ve got ears. I know what’s expected of me.”

I try not to get too excited about anything Hal says because he has a history of over-promising and under-delivering (remember when he said the Yankees weren’t done at Carlos Rodón’s press conference, then they didn’t do anything the rest of the offseason?), and this is hardly the first time fans have clamored for a free agent. This is the first time Hal heard fans chant "re-sign Soto!" game after game though, so maybe that makes a difference. We'll see.

Also, it’s kinda funny how history repeats itself. Two years ago Judge asked Hal about his commitment to winning, Steinbrenner said improvements to the roster were coming, and a week after Judge agreed to his contract, the Yankees signed Rodón. Granted, Rodón hasn’t had kinda impact that was expected, but he was the top free agent starter that offseason, and the Yankees went out and got him.

My guess (and I emphasize this is only a guess) is Soto prefers to remain a Yankee, if all else is equal. Will all else be equal? As in, will Hal go dollar-for-dollar with Steve Cohen? Klapisch hears Steinbrenner is “100% committed” to keeping Soto, but Cohen has the financial might to make this uncomfortable for Hal. Uncomfortable does not mean impossible though. The question is Hal’s willingness, not his wherewithal.

The Mets are obviously in. I think the Red Sox and Blue Jays sincerely want Soto and will make an effort to sign him, but won’t win a bidding war. We can’t ignore the Dodgers, though they have a thing for big money short-term deals (Trevor Bauer, Bryce Harper, etc.), and I wonder if that’s their angle here. They might not be all the way in. I can’t rule out the Phillies. I think that’s the field right there. Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees. The rest is just noise.

It’s sort of funny that Thanksgiving is still a week away, yet it feels like Soto’s free agency has dragged on for an eternity. Judge did not begin his meetings until the week of Nov. 22nd. Gerrit Cole began his meetings after Thanksgiving. Shohei Ohtani too. Soto and Boras got the ball rolling very early, which I guess just led to me growing impatient sooner. I’ll wait as long as necessary if Soto comes back to the Yankees, but I can’t lie, I would like this to be over soon.

“We all know that Boras has a reputation for dragging free agency along at a snail’s pace,” one NL executive told Mark Feinsand. “But when he has someone like Soto, that doesn’t usually happen. I’d be surprised if he hasn’t signed by the time we leave (the Winter Meetings).”

2. Latest roster moves. The Yankees have signed several journeyman types to minor league contracts the last two weeks and I need to round them up at some point, but not today. Those signings are on my radar though. I didn’t miss them. I’ll get to them soon. Here now are this week’s roster moves as several important deadlines came and went (and are upcoming).

Soto rejects qualifying offer

In the least surprising news ever, Juan Soto officially rejected the $21.05 million qualifying offer before the deadline Tuesday. Wouldn’t it have been something if he accepted? Because of their luxury tax status, the Yankees will only get a 2025 draft pick after the fourth round if Soto signs elsewhere. That pick will be in the 130-135 overall range, give or take. It ain’t much, but it’s better than nothing.

Nick Martinez was the only player to accept the qualifying offer. He had a really good 2024 season, but I can’t say I would have been thrilled if my team sunk $21.05M into Nick Martinez. Everyone else rejected the qualifying offer: Soto, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernández, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Anthony Santander, Luis Severino, and Christian Walker.

If the Yankees sign a non-Soto qualified free agent, they will have to surrender their second and fifth highest 2025 draft picks, plus $1M in bonus pool money for the 2026 international signing period. Note that is their second and fifth highest picks, not necessarily their second and fifth rounders. The Yankees could forfeit the compensation pick for Soto leaving if that happens to be their fifth highest pick.

Durbin, Rodriguez added to 40-man

It was a lean offseason for Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects. As expected, the Yankees added infielder Caleb Durbin to the 40-man roster prior to Tuesday’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline. No surprise there. Durbin performed well in Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League, and both Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman have talked him up as a second base candidate in recent weeks. Of course Durbin was protected.

More surprisingly, the Yankees also added utility guy Jesus Rodriguez to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes. Three weeks ago I called Rodriguez a “personal favorite more than a serious Rule 5 Draft candidate,” which shows what I know. I wrote about him back in September. Quoting myself:

He was a 2018 international signing out of Venezuela and it took a while for his career to get going around the pandemic. It didn’t help that the system has been deep in catchers the last few years – Rodriguez has been teammates with Agustin Ramirez, Ben Rice, and Austin Wells at various stops – and he wasn’t a priority prospect.

But, he’s hit, and he’s hit a lot. Some of these stops are small samples, but sheesh, Rodriguez has put up numbers everywhere he’s been (until his current 23-game cameo in Double-A):

Rodriguez has played 35 games at catcher this year, 23 at third base, 13 in left field, and five at first base (and five at DH). The book on him back in the day said he was a catch-and-throw guy, but the bat has been ahead of the glove, and playing with all those more highly regarded catchers forced Rodriguez to learn other positions. He backed into some versatility and is a viable option at the corners and behind the plate.

Rodriguez, 23 in April, slashed .302/.375/.481 (144 wRC+) with 10 homers and strong strikeout (14.7%) and walk (9.9%) rates in 333 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A in 2024. He only played the 23 games in Double-A, so he’ll go back there to begin 2025. Rodriguez isn’t an immediate MLB option in anything other than an emergency. He does have a shot to be a utility guy down the road though.

It seems unlikely Rodriguez would have stuck as a Rule 5 Draft pick all next season, but if you like a player and don’t want to risk losing him, add him to the 40-man and figure it out later. The Yankees now have five catchers on the 40-man (Rodriguez, J.C. Escarra, Carlos Narváez, Jose Trevino, Austin Wells), though Escarra and Rodriguez are utility guys who can catch more than full-time catchers.

Durbin and Rodriguez were the only players added to the 40-man roster Tuesday. First baseman TJ Rumfield and pitch data righties Cole Ayers, Bailey Dees, Alex Mauricio, and Zach Messinger are the notable prospects the Yankees left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Mauricio and Rumfield have some buzz, and Messinger could get a look too. The Yankees will have a player(s) picked in the Rule 5 Draft next month. They always do.

(For what it’s worth, no Yankees were among the players Baseball America (subs. req’d) highlighted as the best available in the Rule 5 Draft.)

Coleman returned by Rangers

Speaking of Rule 5 Draft picks, righty reliever Carson Coleman was returned by the Rangers earlier this week. They dropped him from their 40-man to clear a spot for a Rule 5 Draft eligible prospect. Coleman being returned means he cleared waivers and has been outrighted off the 40-man roster, so he’s back with the Yankees as a non-40-man minor leaguer. There are 37 players on the 40-man right now.

Coleman, 27 in April, has not pitched since 2022. He was my No. 27 prospect entering 2023, then he blew out his elbow in Spring Training and needed Tommy John surgery. The Rangers took him in the Rule 5 Draft last winter with the idea they’d stash him on the 60-day injured list and get what amounts to a free trial during his rehab assignment (Tommy John guys can spend up to 60 days on rehab).

It never worked out. Coleman suffered a setback in May and Rangers GM Chris Young said at the time he might need another surgery, though I don’t know if he actually had one. Even in May, it seemed pretty clear where this was headed. Again quoting myself:

Coleman will need to spend 90 days on the active MLB roster (in 2025) to satisfy the Rule 5 Draft roster requirements. The roster rules don’t just go away because he’ll miss this season with an injury.

The Rangers are a World Series contender and may not want to/be able to keep Coleman on their 40-man roster all offseason, so he could be offered back at some point. José Soriano (Pirates) and Dedniel Núñez (Giants) were Rule 5 Draft picks in Dec. 2020. They then missed all of 2021 with injuries and were returned to their original teams in November. Coleman could be headed down that path following his setback.

I don’t know if Coleman had a second surgery. Either way, he hasn’t pitched since 2022, and I have no idea what his status is now. I guess we just have to wait and see when/if Coleman pops up in a minor league box score next year. Hopefully he reclaims his 2022 form, when he reached Double-A and threw 63.1 innings with a 2.13 ERA (2.48 FIP) with 37.8 K%.

Non-tender deadline on Friday

The non-tender deadline is Friday evening – I never get to see non-tenders before the Offseason Plan and I thought about holding it another few days this year to do that, but nah – and the Yankees have a few guys in danger of being cut. Jon Berti, Trent Grisham, Tim Mayza, maybe even Jose Trevino. Jorbit Vivas too? The non-tender deadline is a chance to drop guys from the 40-man roster without exposing them to waivers.

There are usually several small trades at the non-tender deadline (the Yankees sent Jake Bauers to the Brewers at last year’s deadline) and also “pre-tender” signings. Basically, we’re going to non-tender you unless you sign at this number below your contract projections/expectations, and fringe roster players concerned about their job prospects jump on it. Mayza could be a candidate for one of those this year. More roster news is coming Friday.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Stephen Vogt (Guardians) and Pat Murphy (Brewers) were named Managers of the Year earlier this week. Vogt last played in 2022. Two years is the quickest anyone has gone from playing to winning Manager of the Year. The previous record holder? Joe Girardi. He last played in 2003 and then won Manager of the Year with the Marlins in 2006. Anyway, Aaron Boone received one single second place Manager of the Year vote. From a voter in Seattle, of all places … As expected, Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale won the Cy Young awards. The Red Sox paid Sale's entire salary this year, and he won the Cy Young for the Braves. Hilarious. For the first time since 2019, no Yankees received a Cy Young vote this year. Not a surprise. Gerrit Cole missed a bunch of time and it was gonna be tough for Luis Gil to peel away a stray fifth place vote. Aaron Judge will be named AL MVP on Thursday night. Bobby Witt Jr. will finish second and Juan Soto will finish third. Not sure any other Yankees will get a random down ballot vote, but I'd be down for that weirdness … And finally, Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) reports MLB is planning a national streaming package in which you pay for one service and can watch every team with no blackouts. They hope to have it in place by 2028. Every team would take an equal part of the revenue. The biggest obstacle is convincing big market teams with their own networks (Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Yankees, etc.) to give up their local television money. One possibility is revising the revenue sharing program so those teams keep more of their ticket revenue, though I’m not that’ll do the job. Television money is locked in each year. Ticket revenue has to be earned. I hope we get a blackout-free streaming package. That would be great. Long way to go to get there though. (On that note, I’ve been using the new Gotham Sports app to watch the Knicks and Rangers the last few weeks and it is much, much better than the YES app. It’s not amazing or anything, but it is way better than the clunky as hell YES app. The Yankees will move over to the Gotham Sports app next season.) 

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mike asks: Judge is the captain. Who would be the alternate captains if baseball was like the NHL?

This one’s easy: Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is revered by his teammates – Alex Verdugo called Giancarlo the “second captain” during the postseason – and Cole is the unquestioned leader of the pitching staff. He’s the guy everyone (starters and relievers) looks up to. Cole, Stanton, and Aaron Judge are the “look out for their teammates, take the young guys under their wings, etc.” leaders in the clubhouse. Some NHL teams are weird and have 3-4 alternate captains. If the Yankees had a third, it would probably be Jose Trevino? He’s like an extra coach given all the prep work he does with the pitching staff, and he’s mentored Austin Wells even though Wells is taking his job. Boring answer, but it’s Cole and Stanton, for sure.

Daniel asks: I was wondering if this offseason maybe was the time to try and move Giancarlo Stanton? Acknowledging that he was our best hitter in the playoffs, and has a no trade clause, but he’s still an aging, slowing bat only expensive player who during the regular season was decent at best. This time last year we were talking about releasing him and eating his salary? Could he be moved to open up the DH slot for Judge/Soto (please)? If so who would be interested and what might we get? Just a thought!

Teams are way too rational to change their evaluation of Stanton after his great postseason. They’re not gonna look at the injury prone DH with a .212/.291/.454 (106 wRC+) line in the last three regular seasons and decide they have to have him because he hit well (very well) in 14 games this October. Also, Stanton has 5-and-10 no-trade protection and has given no indication he wants to leave. I assume the only possibilities would be the Southern California teams and the Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani) and Angels (Jorge Soler) already have DHs. The Padres? Eh, maybe, but the Yankees would have to eat just about the entire contract, and probably add a prospect on top as a sweetener. Stanton’s not tradeable. His postseason didn’t move the needle in that way at all. The 2025 season is the last year the Yankees owe him big money (the Marlins pick up $10M a year starting in 2026). After next year, releasing Giancarlo becomes an easier pill to swallow.

A different Daniel asks: I have a sneaking suspicion that the Yankees are going to trade Dominguez in the offseason. I’m getting major Jesus Montero vibes. They’re not playing him when it matters, his defense is suddenly unacceptable, and the vibes just seem off. We have seen the Yankees stuck with the worse hitter in favor of defense many times now. Combine that with a roster that will need many (inexpensive) additions this winter, I think it makes sense. Thoughts? Thanks.

I understand the sentiment, though not playing Montero was more egregious. He’d spent two straight years in Triple-A (nearly 1,000 plate appearances) and the Yankees were cycling through DHs late in 2011. There was an opening to put Montero in the lineup without sitting anyone, and the Yankees just didn’t do it. Jasson Domínguez has only 230 Triple-A plate appearances and those are broken up by Tommy John surgery and this year’s oblique injury. You can at least understand keeping him down as long as they did.

Not playing Domínguez over Alex Verdugo is more difficult to defend. The Yankees have become left field defense pilled. They place a high priority on left field defense, so much so that they’re willing to sacrifice offense at a position with a very high offensive bar. I feel like they’ve gone overboard with the left field defense thing. Of course, Domínguez didn’t hit much when he did play, but neither did Verdugo, and Verdugo has a much longer track record of being a mediocre hitter. Eh, whatever. What’s done is done.

I know for a fact Domínguez is not untouchable and the Yankees have discussed him in trades the last two years (if not further back). They’re not going to give him away, but he’s available in a way Anthony Volpe is not. The Yankees are sticking with Volpe. He’s their guy. Domínguez? Not so much. They like him, they don’t love him. A trade this winter would not surprise me at all. The return would be a big leaguer with multiple years of control, not a one-year rental. Similar to Montero for Michael Pineda, basically.

Chris asks: Seems like the draft pick compensation for winning ROY needs to be revised. Being on 2 of the 3 top 100 prospect lists seems pretty subjective. How about, just winning ROY nets you a pick instead regardless of lists? Keep ROY eligibility rules in place and there still is incentive to bring up rookies.

A thing I did not know until the other day is players who sign long-term contracts before their MLB debut are not eligible for Prospect Promotion Incentive picks, so the Brewers would not have gotten one for Jackson Chourio had he won Rookie of the Year. I don’t understand that rule. If teams want to pay players and use them in a way that nets them an extra draft pick, let them. Why is it one the other, PPI pick or extension?

Anyway, yeah, the PPI system is not great, though it is better than nothing. There’s at least some incentive to promote prospects and not manipulate service time now. I agree the top 100 prospect list criteria is too subjective. It shouldn’t matter what Baseball America and ESPN and MLB Pipeline think of you. If you’re good enough to win Rookie of the Year, you should net a PPI pick, regardless of prospect status.

Maybe the solution is giving a PPI pick for all Rookie of the Year winners (as long as they spend the entire season on the MLB roster), and using top 100 lists to determine PPI eligible for MVP/Cy Young votes? PPI picks are given for players who win Rookie of the Year or finish top three in the MVP/Cy Young voting in their pre-arbitration years. The Yankees could still get a pick for Austin Wells in 2025 or 2026. It’s unlikely, but possible.

That encourages teams to promote their young players regardless of prospect status, and also creates added incentive to promote the very best prospects. All rookies should bring a PPI pick. Save the MVP/Cy Young stuff for the very best prospects. Maybe? Possibly? The current system is not great but it is better than nothing. We are seeing more top prospects on Opening Day rosters. That was the point.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)