November 15th, 2024: Soto, Giants, Hill, Hernández, Rays, Mailbag

Offseason Plan update: I had a good few days and got a lot done this week. Much more than I anticipated. I’d say I’m about 70% of the way through, with most of the hard work already done. It’s looking good for a launch next week. This is the tentative plan:

• Tuesday, Nov. 19th: Regularly scheduled post

• Thursday, Nov. 21st: Friday’s post a day early

• Friday, Nov. 22nd: Offseason Plan

Again, that is tentative. If something pops up in the coming days and I have to focus my attention elsewhere for a bit, and I have to push the Offseason Plan back, then I will. Right now though, that’s my plan. As much as I enjoy the Offseason Plan, I’m ready to get it done and off my plate. Here now is today’s post. I went heavy on mailbag questions because I badly needed to clean out the inbox after the postseason.

1. Latest hot stove news and rumors. The Angels keep doing things (Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Hendricks, Kevin Newman, Jorge Soler, etc.) while every other team sits around twiddling their thumbs. Many teams, but not all, are waiting to see where Juan Soto ends up before moving on to other matters. Qualifying offer decisions are part of it too. Those aren’t due until next Friday for some reason. (Counterpoint: Thanksgiving is still two weeks away. Of course nothing significant has happened yet.) Until Soto signs and until qualifying offer decisions are in, we’ll keep rounding up Yankees-related and Yankees-adjacent hot stove nuggets. Here’s the latest.

Obsessive Soto Watch

It occurred to me a day or two ago that Soto’s meetings began unusually early. Gerrit Cole met with the Yankees in early December. Shohei Ohtani met with teams in late November/early December as well. Soto kicked things off very early, comparatively. All indications are this will not be a prolonged free agency. We won’t be waiting for an answer in January. My guess is Soto signs during the Winter Meetings.

Here now are the latest Soto rumblings:

• The Blue Jays and Red Sox were among the first teams to meet with Soto, per Jeff Passan (subs. req’d). I guess Scott Boras wanted to get the meaningless meetings out of the way early.

• The Giants do not have a meeting on the books with Soto and Boras, according to Jayson Stark. I guess they could schedule one later, but right now, nothing’s planned.

Quiet week, in other words. The Yankees will reportedly meet with Soto and Boras on Monday. It’s believed to be the last meeting on the books, which could mean something or could mean nothing. I lean toward the latter, though I’m willing to be surprised. I doubt contract talks will end after the final meeting. There will be offers and counteroffers, maybe a few visits, etc. Not much more to say right now. Still pretty early in the process.

Giants cutting payroll

Back during the summer it was reportedly the Giants would reduce payroll next year, so I brought up Matt Chapman as a trade deadline target. Then the Giants signed Chapman to a $151M extension and it seemed like okay, they’re not cutting payroll. But apparently they are? Andrew Baggarly (subs. req’d) says payroll is indeed coming down after the Giants paid luxury tax in 2024. Alrighty.

This is not directly related to the Yankees but it is notable because the Giants have a few players who could interest our beloved Bronx Bombers if they do need to shed money. Here are their most obvious trade candidates and their 2025 salary projections:

• RHRP Camilo Doval: $4.6M (three more years of team control)

• 1B LaMonte Wade Jr.: $4.7M (last year of team control)

• OF Mike Yastrzemski: $9.5M (last year of team control)

I answered a mailbag question about Wade a few weeks ago and he would fit nicely as a stopgap first baseman. Stopgap for who? I’m not sure, but he’d fit in 2025. Yastrzemski slashed .231/.302/.437 (106 wRC+) this year and is older than you think (34!). He would likely be an upgrade over 2024 Alex Verdugo, though Yastrzemski’s barely played left field and he needs a platoon partner. 

Doval, 27, is interesting. He was one of the best relievers in baseball from 2022-23, throwing 135.1 innings with a 2.73 ERA (2.87 FIP) and very strong peripherals: 28.5 K%, 9.9 BB%, 54.4 GB%, 4.8% barrel rate. The wheels came in 2024 though (4.88 ERA and 3.71 FIP), so much so that he was sent to Triple-A for two weeks in August. It kinda sorta feels like the Giants are fed up with Doval and ready to move on. (You may remember Doval giving up this extremely cool home run.)

Doval falling apart in 2024 coincides with highly regarded pitching coach Andrew Bailey leaving the Giants and joining the Red Sox. I don’t want to give too much credit to the pitching coach (he’s just a coach, not a magician), but is it possible Doval lost his way without Bailey? Regardless, Doval has an electric arm (upper-90s sinker and cutter, upper-80s slider) and it’s worth finding out if the Giants are ready to sell low.

POBO Buster Posey has been on the job less than two months and he recently hired Zack Minasian as his GM. Neither has any experience running a front office (Minasian was San Francisco’s pro scouting director before being promoted). They’re smart, for sure, and I’m sure they’ve surrounded themselves with other smart people, but the Giants cutting payroll may create an opportunity to swindle a very inexperienced front office here. Hmmm.

Miscellany

The Yankees and Tim Hill have mutual interest in a reunion, reports Gary Phillips. Hill performed quite well with the Yankees and the bullpen currently lacks a go-to ground ball option with Hill, Clay Holmes, and Tommy Kahnle all free agents. Hill turns 35 in February and he’s a funky soft-tossing lefty. A one-year deal in the $3M to $4M range should get it done. I’m cool with bringing Hill back as long as he is the fourth or fifth best reliever in the bullpen come Spring Training. He was good, he has a unique look, and the contract figures to be cheap enough that cutting ties later won’t be burdensome if things don’t work out … If the Yankees don’t re-sign Soto, they want Teoscar Hernández, per Passan (subs. req’d). Hernández hit .272/.339/.501 (134 wRC+) with 33 homers in 2024. It seems like every single rumor about what the Yankees might do if they don’t re-sign Soto is “buy high on this guy entering his mid-30s,” so I really hope they re-sign Soto! … And finally, Francys Romero says the Yankees are among the teams monitoring Yoán Moncada. He played only 12 games this past season because of an adductor injury, though he’s healthy now, and is playing for Cuba in the Premier12 tournament. Or at least he was playing before he took a pitch to the hand Thursday. I pushed “take Moncada’s $29M salary to get a discount on Dylan Cease” last offseason, and now Moncada’s a regular old free agent. He turns 30 in May and hasn’t been good since 2021. As a low cost roll of the dice for the bench (or even Triple-A), sure, but if Moncada is the solution at third base (with Jazz Chisholm Jr. sliding to second), I would be underwhelmed.

2. Rays moving to GMS Field. The Rays will indeed play their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa next season, MLB announced Thursday. I mentioned this was a possibility two weeks ago. They will play the entire season in GMS Field too. This is not a 1-2 month thing. It will be a long, hot, humid, and rain delay filled summer for the Rays. 

“We are happy to extend our hand to the Rays and their fans by providing a Major League-quality facility for them to utilize this season,” Hal Steinbrenner said in a statement. “Both the Yankees organization and my family have deep roots in the Tampa Bay region, and we understand how meaningful it is for Rays players, employees and fans to have their 2025 home games take place within 30 minutes of Tropicana Field. In times like these, rivalry and competition take a back seat to doing what’s right for our community — which is continuing to help families and businesses rebound from the devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.’’

Curt Anderson says the Yankees will receive about $15M in compensation, and Low-A Tampa will play games at the minor league complex across the street when there is a scheduling conflict with the Rays. Among the nearby Spring Training sites, GMS Field requires the least amount of work to be made CBA compliant, plus it keeps the Rays and their employees near home. This made the most sense for a temporary home. (Apparently there will be a rebrand and Yankees signage will not be displayed during Rays games.)

Earlier this week the City of St. Petersburg was informed it will cost $56M to repair Tropicana Field, per Marc Topkin, and the ballpark will not be ready until Opening Day 2026. St. Pete may not want to sink all that money into the Trop when it is scheduled to be demolished in three years, so this is still very much an open matter. The Rays will play next season at GMS Field. We know that much. What happens in 2026? Beats me.

I gotta say, two franchises (Rays and Athletics) playing home games in minor league stadiums next year is a rough look for MLB. The league can blame this on an act of God, though Rays ownership wasted 15 years floating nonsense stadium plans, like that ridiculous two-city thing with Tampa and Montreal. The Trop wasn’t getting any younger, you know? They knew the roof was beyond its intended service life. Major League games in minor league parks ain't right.

(The Yankees go to Tampa for four games from April 17-20 and two games from Aug. 19-20 next season.)

3. Rapid fire thoughts. As expected, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto won Silver Sluggers. Anthony Santander was the third AL outfielder. The Yankees also won the AL’s team Silver Slugger. They were first in the AL in runs per game, fourth in AVG, first in OBP, second in SLG, first in wRC+, and first in home runs. Anyway, there’s the Silver Slugger update. Here are all the winners … And finally, Dave Sims is the new radio voice of the Yankees. Sims, most recently the Mariners television play-by-play man, was officially announced as John Sterling's replacement Thursday. The 71-year-old is one of my favorite broadcasters. Enthusiastic, funny, and he has a distinctive voice. That’s the magic broadcaster formula right there. Sims was on WFAN in the 1980s and 1990s, and his kids and grandkids live in the area, so this is a bit of a homecoming for him. Depending what happens with Juan Soto, Sims might be the best pickup of the offseason. 

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Adam asks: In today’s post you said Boone isn’t one of the Yankees ten biggest problems. What would you say are the Yankees ten biggest problems?

In my defense, I said I’m not sure Aaron Boone is on the list of top 10 Yankees’ problems, not that he is definitely on the outside. I wrote that flippantly, and sorting out big picture issues with short-term issues facing the 2025 Yankees is a bit of a challenge. Nevertheless, I will try:

1. Juan Soto is not currently under contract.
2. They haven’t developed an above-average hitter in seven years.
3. The owner refuses to unleash the full financial might of the New York Yankees.
4. There’s a lot of injury and workload risk in the rotation entering 2025.
5. They don’t have a right side of the infield.
6. The bullpen is single-ply thin.
7. There’s a lack of high-end stuff in the farm system (subs. req’d).
8. There is no apparent emphasis on sound defense and baserunning.
9. The franchise cornerstones (Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge) are in their 30s.
10. The manager elevates his team in no apparent way.

That seem right? Soto’s the big one to me. He’s a franchise changer. As for No. 2, Gleyber Torres is the only hitter to come up through the system and put up multiple 100 OPS+ seasons since Judge's rookie season, and a 100 OPS+ isn’t even a high bar! I’m not expecting the Yankees to produce an All-Star every year, but maybe a competent hitter now and then so we can avoid the Alex Verdugos and Jake Bauerses of the world?

The Dodgers had a $297.9M luxury tax payroll in 2015. The Yankees did not get to that level until 2023, and I’m being generous because they finished last year with a $296.3M luxury tax payroll. This year, 2024, is the first time the Yankees exceeded the Dodgers’ 2015 luxury tax payroll. The Yankees can obviously run a larger payroll than they do, but Hal Steinbrenner keeps the restrictor plate on, so now the Yankees are a regular old big market team instead of the sport’s dominant franchise. It is what it is.

No. 4 is just the reality of the rotation and deep postseason run, and something the Yankees will have to deal with next year. Nos. 5 and 6 will be addressed this winter and the Yankees did add some premium arms in this summer’s draft, so No. 7 will work itself out soon (I hope). The poor fundamental play is a constant and it undermines the talent on the roster. Please do something about it already.

Cole and Judge are still great players, but being in their 30s means they are closer to the end of their time as elite players than the beginning, so the clock is ticking on this window. That’s why re-signing Soto is so important. He is the centerpiece the Yankees otherwise lack once Cole and Judge age out. I guess Boone slots in at No. 10 then. I feel like I’m missing something obvious.

Alessandro asks: Did you see the report that gulps Alex Bregman is willing to play 2B?

I did, and I assume that’s Scott Boras just trying to drum up as much interest and as much of a market for his client as possible. It doesn’t seem all that relevant to the Yankees? If the Yankees sign Bregman, they can put him at third base and shift Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second. That way they’re playing positions they know how to play instead of both playing out of position. Jazz at third and Bregman at second would be completely backwards. I am only half-joking when I say it would be perfectly Yankees then.

Paul asks: There has been a lot of talk and Caleb Durbin this winter, already. It feels like a Bubba Crosby smokescreen that isn't actually a smokescreen. I just don't trust this version of the Yankees to fortify the position. Every time they've talked up a prospect recently, that prospect has gotten a shot, for better or worse. Oftentimes as the only plan, with no depth behind them. Is he really Plan A for 2nd base? Is that a good idea?

Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman both mentioned Durbin as being in the second base mix recently, though it was far less declarative than “Bubba Crosby is our center fielder.” I know the Yankees really like Durbin, but I don’t get the sense they’re just going to hand him the reins to second base. It seems likely they will go cheap at second, and that could mean trading for a low cost option (Brendan Donovan? Jonathan India?) rather than let the kids sink or swim. I do not think Durbin is Plan A at second base. No chance.

I am planning to write more about Durbin next week, either before or after Tuesday’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline (he’s obviously going on the 40-man roster). He had a very good Triple-A season around a bad luck broken wrist and he’s hitting well in the Arizona Fall League. Durbin’s Triple-A contact quality was not good at all though …

• 90th percentile exit velocity: 100.5 mph (22nd percentile)

• Max exit velocity: 107.3 mph (34th percentile)

• Pulled fly ball rate: 14.3% (88th percentile)

… and it is already optimized because he pulls the ball in the air so much. Durbin hit six balls over 360 feet in Triple-A this year and none even 400 feet. There is more to life than hard contact, but Yankee Stadium is unkind to slap-hitting singles guys, and there’s a limit to how productive you can be when you’re in the bottom third of the league in contact quality. (And Durbin was in the bottom third in Triple-A.)

On top of that, Durbin is a good defender, not a great defender, and be careful not to overrate stolen bases. They are only so valuable. Durbin might only be David Fletcher with less glove or Nick Madrigal without the draft pedigree, which is to say a fringe big leaguer at best. The Yankees can not possibly go into 2025 thinking one of Durbin, Oswald Peraza, or Jorbit Vivas will emerge as the answer at second, can they? They need to be Plan B at best.

Ray asks: Alec Bohm is reportedly on the trade block. Should the Yankees make a bid and what would a trade package look like?

One of my editors at CBS is a Phillies fan and soon after they lost the NLDS, I joked that trading Bohm and signing Alex Bregman would be a very Dave Dombrowski thing, and now Bohm is on the trade block. Hmmm. Now 28, Bohm hit .280/.332/.448 (115 wRC+) with 15 homers and a 14.2 K% in 2024. He had a great first half (128 wRC+) and a poor second half (90 wRC+).

Defensively, Bohm has gone from unplayable at third base to merely below average, and he’s played plenty of first base too. The Yankees could use him in either corner. In a way, Bohm is the player Miguel Andujar was supposed to become. Aggressive hitter without a high strikeout rate, doubles more than home runs, and a glove that is shaky enough to prompt a move to another position (at some point).

The one real drawback with Bohm is he is a player who very obviously presses. When he struggles, he will get way too aggressive at the plate and bobble the ball at third. It becomes very clear when he’s trying to do too much to get himself going, and then things snowball into a 90 wRC+ second half. Bohm’s played in a demanding market and for a contender, so he knows what that’s like. But he will press and press hard, yeah.

Two years of a good but not great corner bat gets you what on the trade market? Matt Chapman brought back one very good prospect and three filler pieces when he went to Toronto. Maybe that’s what it takes to get Bohm. One good prospect plus stuff. I am intrigued, moreso as a first baseman than as a third baseman, and ideally Bohm would be in addition to a Juan Soto re-signing and not part of the replacement plan. 

A few people asked: What about Eugenio Suárez?

I answered a mailbag question about Suárez as a trade deadline target in June and said no way, he looks done. He was hitting .197/.263/.312 (65 wRC+) with a 29.0 K% and only five homers at the time. Suárez went deep that night and hit .299/.356/.582 (154 wRC+) with 25 homers in 94 games the rest of the way. Clearly, my mailbag answer inspired him.

That torrid finish convinced the Diamondbacks to pick up Suárez’s $15M club option last week. There was a $2M buyout, so it was a $13M decision. I assume Arizona will keep him. They don’t have anyone ready to step in at third base to replace him, and the free agent market doesn’t have much to offer. Certainly nothing comparable to Suárez on what amounts to a one-year, $13M deal. Funny how much has changed since June, eh?

For argument’s sake, let’s say Arizona is open to moving Suárez because they need to cut payroll because of the Bally Sports thing and can’t find a taker for Jordan Montgomery’s contract or whatever. In that case, yeah, the Yankees should pursue Suárez. Put him at third, slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. over to second, and that’s better than going with Jazz at third and Caleb Durbin or Oswald Peraza or whoever at second.

The D’Backs need a first baseman to replace Christian Walker, so does Ben Rice interest them? I guess they have Pavin Smith, another lefty hitter, to step in there, though maybe they like Rice more than Smith. They also want more bullpen help. If you can get Suárez for a reliever or two, do it, then spend the next three months between now and Spring Training replenishing the bullpen.

Arizona gave up a third catcher (Seby Zavala) and a lottery ticket arm (Carlos Vargas) to get Suárez in a salary dump last offseason. Something similar now would be ideal. A lottery ticket arm (Kyle Carr?) and a bench guy (Peraza?). I don’t love Suárez, he strikes out a ton and when he’s going bad it’s really bad, but him at $13M for a year is better than almost everything else on the trade market or free agency.

Isaac asks: You get to have 1 player on the 2025 Yankees: 2024 Juan Soto or 2002 Jason Giambi. Who are you taking and why?

Jasson Domínguez’s namesake hit .314/.435/.598 (175 wRC+) with 41 homers and nearly as many walks (15.8%) as strikeouts (16.3%) in his first season as a Yankee. Giambi was a +7.1 WAR player in 2002, his age 31 season. Soto just put up a .288/.419/.569 (180 wRC+) line with 41 homers and more walks (18.1%) than strikeouts (16.7%) in his first season as a Yankee. He was a +7.9 WAR player in his age 25 season. Soto is my pick and not just because wRC+, WAR, etc. say he’s the “correct” pick. 2002 Giambi and 2024 Soto were more or less identically productive. Soto is an entertainer though. He makes taking pitches look cool, and adds to my enjoyment that way. When I’m choosing between two players this good, I’m cool using that as a tiebreaker. Both great and very productive. 2024 Soto is my pick because he was fun to watch on top of it.

Jonas asks: How come the Yankees don’t try to bring up more young pitchers thru the bullpen to help them acclimate to the league? It would be great for them to come up a dominate as a starter from the beginning, but this rarely is the case. There are usually growing pains and it seems working on them thru the bullpen would be a good option. Michael King and Clarke Schmidt did this some and it probably helped them in the long run. Are there any prospects that would make sense to try this route?

Other than King and Schmidt, the Yankees haven’t brought up any top pitching prospects to work out of the bullpen for an extended stretch. Heck, Chad Green and Jonathan Loáisiga did the opposite. They initially came up as starters, then shifted to the bullpen. Luis Severino started in 2015, struggled in 2016, moved to the bullpen for a bit, then went back into the rotation and had success in 2017.

Breaking your top pitching prospects in as relievers is old school player development, and it works! Corbin Burnes and Chris Sale spent multiple years in the bullpen before breaking through as starters. Garrett Crochet was a reliever. Framber Valdez, Spencer Strider, Seth Lugo, Tyler Glasnow. They all began their MLB careers as relievers before finding themselves as starters. Lots of top starters broke in this way.

No development path will ever have a 100% success rate but there is something to be said for learning how to get outs in the bullpen, and using that experience to have success as a starter. Does King become the pitcher he is today without his bullpen experience? I don’t think so. I mean heck, we saw King as a starter in 2020 and 2021, and he stunk. He emerged from the bullpen as an entirely different pitcher.

To be fair to the Yankees, they did this with King and Schmidt, and haven’t really had anyone to do it with since them. Will Warren made starts this year because the Yankees needed a starter, not because they wanted to get his feet wet in the big leagues and they decided this was the best way to do it. Not breaking top prospects in as relievers has more to do with a lack of opportunity than a lack willingness, I think.

As for candidates for this development approach, I mean, it’s basically every pitching prospect, right? The Yankees could do it with Warren, Chase Hampton (if healthy), Brock Selvidge, Ben Hess. Warren is the top candidate going into 2025 because he is closest to MLB ready. Hampton missed almost the entire 2024 season and Selvidge only has a half-season in Double-A. Hess hasn’t thrown a professional pitch yet.

I’m all for breaking young pitchers in as relievers. Sometimes you need a starter and you have to introduce a guy to the big leagues that way, and sometimes the pitcher is so good that he makes an easy transition (Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, etc.), but there are usually growing pains. Relief work can be a great way to figure things out and prepare for a larger role down the line.

Danny asks: Assuming Sasaki doesn't sign with the Yankees during the 2024 signing period (he chooses another team or Sasaki signs after December 15), what do the Yankees do with the remaining $1.5M in their IFA pool? When they lost out on Ohtani, they used the unused space to sign Raimfer Salinas and Antonio Cabello, who were significant amateurs at the time (even if they didn't work out as prospects). Is it unusual they have a third of their original pool unused at this point? Thanks.

It is definitely unusual the Yankees have so much bonus pool money remaining (approximately $1.5M) this late in the signing period. The same goes for the Dodgers ($2.5M) and Orioles ($2.2M), who have more bonus pool money remaining than the Yankees, according to the Associated Press. I’m sure the Yankees have a backup plan for that money. Five of MLB Pipeline’s top 50 international prospects are still unsigned:

• No. 9: Venezuelan SS Kennew Blanco

• No. 26: Dominican SS Raymel Ortiz

• No. 31: Dominican SS Jensy Rivas

• No. 40: Dominican OF Jeremy Denaud

• No. 49: Dominican OF Anderson Paula

There are dozens of other unsigned international prospects and inevitably a few will turn into pretty good players. We usually have to wait a year or two to hear about the Henry Lalanes and Edgleen Perezes, the lesser heralded international signings who become dudes. I’m certain the Yankees prefer to give the rest of their bonus pool to Roki Sasaki. If they can’t, it’ll go to someone(s), even if we don’t find out who right away.

Chris asks: Have you heard anything about the next CBA? I think I remember the 2020 CBA being a five year deal. Hopefully no news means no expected lockout?

The current CBA expires after the 2026 season and MLB and MLBPA usually don’t begin negotiations until a year before it expires. Serious negotiations begin a few months after that. It is not at all unusual that we haven’t heard anything about the next CBA yet, and I would not take this to mean there won’t be a lockout. We just don’t know. Both sides will spend the next 12 months posturing leading into CBA talks (the owners will cry poor, the players will say getting this and that is a priority, etc.), then they’ll get down to business and start talking next winter. I hope there’s no lockout. That was a nightmare. There’s just no way of knowing right now. It is business as usual two years out from the CBA expiring. 

Dan asks: What does the offseason typically look like for managers? What I mean is: after the World Series ends, are managers still expected to report to work like it's a regular 9-5? I'm guessing not, but I have to imagine that they are expected to at least be around the team more than players are, since they'll have a say in trade discussions, signings, and other issues surrounding the roster, and will also have to be available to speak with the media. 

I honestly have no idea. The offseason certainly isn’t a four-month vacation for them. I know that much. I guess managers shift into more of a front office role, not that they’re digging through datasets or anything like that. But there are meetings about players inside and outside the organization, the manager needs to stay up to speed with whatever the front office is cooking up, etc. I can tell you it’s not a regular 9-5 job and it’s definitely not a bunch of sitting around until Spring Training.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)