October 22nd, 2024: World Series, Mailbag

Welcome to the calm before the storm. The Yankees are in the World Series and so too are the Dodgers. They sent the Mets home in NLCS Game 6 Sunday night. So close to a Subway World Series! That would have been so fun. We’ll have to settle for the sport’s two marquee franchises instead. We’ve earned it. After sitting through Diamondbacks vs. Rangers, the lockout, a Rays pennant, and the pandemic shutdown the last few years, we’ve earned this. Yankees or no Yankees, I wanted a big ticket World Series this year, and we certainly got one. The network executives must be thrilled. Here’s a quick post with some general World Series thoughts, plus a few stray mailbag questions while I have the time. We’ll dig into the World Series matchup more later this week. 

TRIVIA: One player played for both the Yankees and Dodgers this season, and is assured a World Series ring. Who is it? (Answer at the end of the post.)

1. Partying like 1981. Dodgers vs. Yankees is the most common postseason matchup in baseball history. The 2024 World Series will be their 12th postseason meeting all-time and their first since 1981. These two teams have given baseball some of its most iconic World Series moments. Here’s a quick recap of the previous 11 Dodgers vs. Yankees World Series matchups:

• 1941: Yankees won 4-1

• 1947: Yankees won 4-3

• 1949: Yankees won 4-1

• 1952: Yankees won 4-3

• 1953: Yankees won 4-1 (at 25, Vin Scully becomes youngest World Series broadcaster ever)

• 1955: Dodgers won 4-3 (Jackie Robinson steals home in Game 1)

• 1956: Yankees won 4-3 (Don Larsen throws perfect game in Game 5)

• 1963: Dodgers won 4-0

• 1977: Yankees won 4-2 (Reggie Jackson hits three home runs in Game 6)

• 1978: Yankees won 4-2

• 1981: Dodgers won 4-2

This is the first time the teams with the best record in each league will meet in the World Series since Dodgers vs. Rays in 2020. If you prefer full 162-game seasons, it hasn’t happened since 2013 (Cardinals vs. Red Sox). Also, would you believe this is the first time since 2017 that the two pennant winners both have at least 94 wins? It’s only the fourth time since 2005 that it’s happened (also 2013 and 2016). Huh.

For the first time ever, two 50-homer guys will meet in the World Series. Assuming Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani win MVP, they’ll be the first MVPs to meet in the World Series since Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey in 2012. It’s also the first time the two league leaders in WAR will meet in the World Series since 1983 (Jon Denny and Cal Ripken Jr.). A series worthy of Hollywood.

"On our team, you’re talking about Shohei, Freddie, Mookie,” Max Muncy told Bill Shaikin on Sunday. “On their team, you’ve got Aaron Judge, Giancarlo, Juan Soto. You are talking about the absolute biggest stars in the game and now they are going to be playing on the biggest stage. As a fan, how special is this?"

With all due respect to the Royals and Guardians, the Yankees are in the big leagues now. The baseball gods did the Yankees a solid and paved the road to the pennant through the AL Central. You can only play the schedule you’re given and the Yankees took care of business against inferior opponents. Seven wins in nine postseason games, and never once did they face elimination. In nine postseason games the Yankees have trailed for a total of 15 innings, and never by more than three runs.

The Dodgers were down 2-1 to the Padres in the NLDS and played an elimination game 13 days ago. They fell behind 2-1 in that series, then threw back-to-back shutouts in Games 4 and 5. The Dodgers scored 46 runs in six games against the Mets, the most runs an NL team has ever scored in a postseason series. The Padres had the best record in baseball after July 19th. The Mets had the best record in baseball after June 2nd. The Dodgers beat a very good Padres team with pitching and a very good Mets team with offense. They are a dangerous, complete team.

The Yankees have outhomered their opponents 13-7 in the postseason. For the Dodgers, it’s 20-13. That will be the single biggest difference between the ALDS/ALCS and World Series. Make a mistake against the Royals and Guardians, and they hit singles and doubles (ALCS Game 3 notwithstanding). Make a mistake against the Dodgers, and it’s in the seats. The Dodgers do not have a good rotation, though their bullpen has been superb. Early leads are a must. The Padres and Mets learned that the hard way. Let’s check in on the World Series ZiPS odds, shall we?

Oh yeah, that's a good stuff. Back in June, the Dodgers visited Yankee Stadium, and that was like the World Series in terms of how much media was there. It was unlike any regular season series I’d ever seen. There were more folks covering those games than the ALDS or ALCS. I'm not kidding. It as an absolutely madhouse. The Dodgers took two of three that series, but that was a baseball lifetime ago. Look at the pitching matchups:

• June 7th: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Cody Poteet (Dodgers won 2-1 in 11 innings)

• June 8th: Gavin Stone vs. Nestor Cortes (Dodgers won 11-3)

• June 9th: Tyler Glasnow vs. Luis Gil (Yankees won 6-4)

Glasnow (elbow) and Stone (shoulder) are done for the season and Cortes (flexor) is not certain to be on the World Series roster, though it seems likely*. “I would say there is a decent chance that he could be on the roster, yes,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty on Monday. Gil and Yamamoto are the only starters from that June series who will start in the World Series. Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt were on the injured list at the time, and Jack Flaherty was a Tiger.

* My guess is the Yankees drop Trent Grisham, who was on the ALDS and ALCS rosters but has not yet appeared in a game this postseason, from the World Series roster and add Cortes as a 13th pitcher. The 12-man staff was on fumes in the ALCS and that was against the Guardians. The Dodgers are gonna grind down your pitchers more than Cleveland ever will.

Also, Soto missed the June series with a forearm injury, Anthony Volpe was still hitting leadoff, Jose Trevino was the starting catcher, and DJ LeMahieu was the starting third baseman. Caleb Ferguson, Victor González, Dennis Santana, and Michael Tonkin all pitched in that series. The Dodgers had Jason Heyward in the lineup. It was only four months ago, but four months is an eternity in this sport. That June series doesn’t tell us anything about the World Series. It was three games!

One way or the other, this will be John Sterling’s final series in the WFAN booth, and the Yankees need to send him out properly. The Dodgers will certainly be the best team the Yankees play this postseason and really all season. They’re very, very good. So too are the Yankees. I think we’re in for an all-time classic World Series. Something we’re going to remember forever. I can’t wait.

"I just feel like things were coming together for us this year more than ever down the stretch, and now the playoffs. So far that’s played out for us,” Boone told John Flanigan on Monday. “I think when you say the togetherness and the culture, we’ve had a lot of seasons where it’s been very strong. I’d say it’s as strong as it’s ever been and that’s a testament of how close these guys are.”

2. Upcoming RAB stuff. The stuff I do early in the offseason every year is on hold because (you may have heard about this) the Yankees are in the World Series. Stuff like breaking down the Yankees’ arbitration class, previewing their qualifying offer and contract option decisions, etc. I haven’t done any of that yet, though I’ll get to it all before the relevant deadlines. There’s also this stuff:

• Offseason Calendar (last year’s): This will still go up the day after the World Series ends. It’s helpful for me to have it all in one place, plus it’s mostly written already.

• Offseason Plan (last year’s): I have not written a single word of this yet. I usually put it together over however many weeks once the Yankees get eliminated, and run it about a week after the World Series ends. It will have to be later this year. I don’t know how much later, but later. I will keep you updated. (The Yankees going to the World Series is a good reason for the delay, I think.)

• Minor League Awards (last year’s): These are a low priority (bit of a crummy year in the minors anyway) but I will get to them eventually. The Offseason Plan will come first.

• Top 30 Prospects (last year’s): Business as usual here. These go up the Friday before pitchers and catchers report. Long way away.

The Offseason Plan is the big one. It’s fun for me and a lot of people enjoy it based on the feedback, though I haven’t even started on the thing yet, and it’s A LOT of work. I will effort to get it done ASAP and I hope to get it out there before Juan Soto signs – is it a spoiler to say re-signing Soto is the No. 1 item on my list? – so his actual contract doesn’t influence the numbers I come up with. Anyway, that is the state of RAB update. 

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Giovanni asks: If the Yankees don't win the World Series in 2024, do Judge and Cole ever get a better chance to earn a ring? It seems this may be the best shot they have before starting on the downward slope of their careers. It almost feels like this is their best opportunity to get over the hump.

Giovanni sent this question in on the off-day between Games 2 and 3 of the ALCS, when the Yankees had a 2-0 series lead. Obviously the answer now is yes, the Yankees are in the World Series and four wins away from a championship. It’s hard to get much closer than this. At the time of the question, I would have also said yes. The Yankees were two wins away from the pennant and the Guardians, despite their 92-69 record, were not a powerhouse. It was obvious watching them. Aaron Judge turns 33 in April, Gerrit Cole turned 34 last month, Giancarlo Stanton has turned back the clock in October, and who knows where Juan Soto (and Gleyber Torres) will be playing next year. It’s hard to see how the stars could align in such a way that the Yankees will have a better chance to win the World Series than they do right now. It’s not now or never, they could certainly get back to the World Series next year, but everything has come together this October. It is, unironically, right in front of them.

Chris asks: Today in theory was Cole’s throw day - why wasn’t he considered as an option to pitch in relief?

Chris sent this question in after Game 4 of the ALCS, which Tommy Kahnle closed because Luke Weaver was unavailable due to his workload. Gerrit Cole started Game 2 on Tuesday, so Friday (Game 4) would have been his bullpen day, so yes, in theory Cole could have skipped his bullpen and thrown an inning in Game 4. Aaron Boone said they were trying to avoid using their starters as relievers in the ALCS though, probably because they all have some sorta physical concerns. Cole and Clarke Schmidt missed a bunch of time this year, Luis Gil’s never thrown this many innings in his life, and Carlos Rodón has a long injury. I suspect using a starter in relief would have been in play had the series gone to a Game 7. In Game 4, they were not quite ready to do that. In the World Series, I would hope everything is on the table.

Chase asks: if the Yankees win the WS, and Gleyber continues to play the way that he has, does it change the feeling about the Yankees bringing GT back next year.

I don’t think so. The Yankees are not the type to let emotions factor into major roster decisions – if they let Hideki Matsui leave after winning World Series MVP, they can certainly let Gleyber Torres walk this winter – and it seems like they’re dead set on going with a cheaper infielder (Caleb Durbin? Oswald Peraza?) so they can reduce payroll. Gleyber’s had a terrific postseason. Another terrific postseason, really. I think the Yankees are thrilled he’s doing what he’s doing right now, but they won’t let these 9+ games change their overall evaluation of him. Feels like the Yankees made up their mind that they’ll let Torres leave as a free agent three years ago.

Steve asks: Alright Mike. Let’s assume for this question the Yankees re-sign Soto and Verdugo goes elsewhere. Let’s also assume Jasson wins a job in spring training. Judge is what, 33? Even at his age, is he a better defender than Soto? Should Judge plan on using the offseason to learn Left field? Or Soto and let “old man” Judge play in the smaller RF? Or do you have Judge start learning first base?

Even if Jasson Domínguez doesn’t win the center field job in Spring Training, I don’t think the Yankees can (or should) run Aaron Judge out there in center for another season. It worked this year, though he graded out poorly in center (-9 DRS and -5 OAA), and he’ll turn 33 in April. Center field is a young player’s position. Here are the leaders in games started in center among 30-somethings since 2021:

1. Michael A. Taylor: 438
2. Kevin Kiermaier: 350
3. Mike Trout: 213
4. Aaron Judge: 196
5. Mike Yastrzemski: 169

Only nine others have made even 100 starts in center at age 30+ in the last four years. Raise the bar to age 32+, and only six guys have 100 starts: Kiermaier (240), Taylor (189), Adam Duvall (130), Starling Marte (121), Aaron Hicks (111), and Lorenzo Cain (109). Players Judge’s age just don’t play center field full-time. What he did this year was the exception, not the rule.

As for next year, I think you have to tell Judge to prepare to play left field if the Yankees re-sign Juan Soto. He looked uncomfortable out there this year, so give him a full offseason and a full Spring Training to work on it, and let him get familiar with the position. I think the Yankees should give Judge in left field a try before moving him to first base, though I imagine the first base conversation will happen in time. For 2025, I think left field is the way to go with Judge no matter what happens with Domínguez.

Max asks: Luke Weaver the next Michael King? Do you try him as a starter next year? 

There’s no harm in having Weaver prepare to start and letting him make some extended outings in Spring Training (he did that this year), but I don’t think this is a potential King situation. Even as a reliever, King was a legit four-pitch guy (four-seamer, sinker, sweeper, changeup). Weaver is a four-seamer/changeup guy with a show-me cutter. He lacks the reliable third pitch to start. Weaver falls somewhere between Chad Green and Mike King on the “reliever who can start” spectrum. Green was a fastball-only reliever. King was a four-pitch reliever. Weaver’s between them as a 2.5-pitch guy. Again, there’s no harm in letting Weaver start next spring and seeing what’s what, but I would be much less confident in this working than King. King has a legit starter’s pitch package. Weaver doesn’t. Seems to me he’s found a home in the bullpen.

James asks: Why do announcers insist on saying "that was a beautiful piece of hitting?" It's a meaningless, lazy turn of phrase. I think the TBS team said it 4 times in the first 1 and 2/3 innings tonight. I want to hear about how hard it is to make contact with that slider with 15 inches of horizontal movement, how impressive it is to catch up to a fastball and hit it the other way, etc. -- how are national announcers allowed to be so vapid? And former players like Francoeur at that. Pet peeve alert.

“Nice piece of hitting” is always for a single to the opposite field. Tigers television play-by-play man Jason Benetti will occasionally joke around and call a long homer a nice piece of hitting, otherwise it is for opposite field singles and nothing else. It’s lazy and cliche. There are plenty of pulled line drives and rockets into the gap that qualify as a nice piece of hitting. Maybe this will change as a new generation(s) of broadcasters enter the game, but eh, it feels too ingrained in the sport. You’ll have better luck convincing people to stop calling the Yankees the Bronx Bombers than to start using "nice piece of hitting" for something other than a single served the other way.

TRIVIA ANSWER: Taylor Trammell. He played five games with the Dodgers in April, the Yankees claimed him off waivers on April 18th, then he appeared in five games for them before being banished to Triple-A Scranton. Trammell hit 1.000/1.000/2.000 in pinstripes. He went 1-for-1 with a double and a walk.

(The mailbag is not a priority in the postseason but I’ll get to any questions when I can. Send your requests to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)