Thoughts before Game 1 of the 2024 ALCS

It is once again Yankees vs. Guardians. Josh Naylor rocking the baby, annoying bloop hits to shallow left field, pitching changes galore, midges, all that stuff. The ALCS will be the fourth Yankees vs. Guardians postseason series in the last eight years (also 2017 ALDS, 2020 Wild Card Series, 2022 ALDS). It’s also the seventh Yankees vs. Guardians postseason series all-time. Only the Yankees and Dodgers (11 times) have met more frequently in October, and that's among all postseason matchups. Not just those involving the Yankees.

The Yankees handled the Guardians well during the regular season, taking two of three in Cleveland in April and two of three in the Bronx in August. They also handed Emmanuel Clase one of his three blown saves (remember this?) and outscored Cleveland 37-22 in the six games (nine of their 22 runs came in extra innings too). And none of that matters now. October is a new season. Here are the ZiPS odds for the ALCS:

As good as the Tigers were these last few weeks, the Guardians are the tougher ALCS draw, especially with a) Kerry Carpenter (Detroit’s best hitter) hobbled by a hamstring injury, and b) Tarik Skubal unavailable to start on normal rest until Game 3. What can you do though. You have to beat good teams to get to the World Series. The baseball gods did their part paving the way with AL Central teams. Now it's on the Yankees to capitalize.

Three of the four teams still playing (Dodgers, Guardians, Yankees) had a Wild Card Series bye. Can we please put to bed the idea that skipping an entire round is a bad thing? The fourth team (Mets) had the best record in baseball after June 1st. If these aren’t the four best teams in baseball, they’re certainly in the conversation. Feels like it’s been a while since we could say that about the Championship Series. 

Historically, the team that wins Game 1 of a best-of-seven has gone on to win the series 64% of the time, which is lower than I would have guessed. That jumps to 68% if the team with home field advantage wins Game 1. A best-of-seven is more forgiving than a best-of-five and especially a best-of-three. Still, go out and win Game 1, and take control of the series, Yankees. Here are a few thoughts before Game 1.

Game 1 on Monday: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Alex Cobb (7:30pm ET on TBS, Max, TruTV)

1. Yankees announce ALCS roster. The ALCS roster was due to MLB at 10am ET on Monday and the Yankees announced it publicly about 50 minutes later. As expected, they added Marcus Stroman as the 12th pitcher. They also added Anthony Rizzo, who increased his baseball activity over the weekend, but as far as I know has not yet hit against live pitching. Here is the 26 players the Yankees will use in the ALCS:

Duke Ellis and Ben Rice came off the roster for Rizzo and Stroman, so it’s 14 position players and 12 pitchers. Aaron Boone already confirmed Gil will start Game 4, so Stroman takes over as the long man in the bullpen. With only the usual two off-days in the ALCS, including potentially three games in three days (Games 3-5), you’re more likely to need a reliever who can give you 3-4 innings than you were in this year’s ALDS, which had three off-days.

I don't know what the plan is with Rizzo. Will he step right back into the lineup as the unquestioned starting first baseman? Is this a “we think he’ll be ready later in the series, but we need to add him now, so he’s on the roster” situation? Will he be a defensive replacement? I have no idea. Berti and Cabrera handled first base well during the ALDS, though I understand being skeptical about them over there.

Nestor Cortes (flexor) threw his first bullpen session Sunday and Matt Blake told Greg Joyce the Yankees were considering him for the ALCS roster, though they ultimately passed. Nestor must’ve been sharp for the thought to put him on the roster to even cross their minds. He might actually be on the World Series roster, if the Yankees advance. Otherwise the ALCS roster is mostly as expected.

2. Rodón in Game 1. Carlos Rodón, not Clarke Schmidt, will start Game 1 on Monday. The ALCS rotation will be Rodón, Gerrit Cole, Schmidt, and Luis Gil in that order. I can’t say Rodón in Game 1 is surprising. It keeps everyone on a normal-ish schedule and Rodón was signed to be the No. 2, but I don’t love it. Cleveland hammers lefties and Rodón is homer prone, and Game 1 is in Yankee Stadium. Here are some quick numbers:

Guardians vs. LHP: .251/.324/.427 (114 wRC+)
Guardians vs. RHP: .233/.301/.383 (95 wRC+)

Guardians vs. LHP in August and September: .249/.324/.437 (115 wRC+)
Guardians vs. RHP in August and September: .228/.294/.376 (91 wRC+)

Yankee Stadium HR park factor: 119 (per Statcast)
Progressive Field HR park factor: 86

It feels like the Yankees are doing the Guardians a favor by starting a homer prone lefty in Game 1. This isn’t a “we don’t have the flexibility to start someone else” situation either. The Yankees could have gone with Schmidt on normal rest in Game 1, and pushed Rodón back to Game 3 in Cleveland. Here are the two possible rotation plans I mapped out over the weekend:

The Yankees could have started the ALCS with two righties and also pushed Rodón’s second start back to Game 7. I’m not sure anyone feels comfortable with him in a Game 7 – that feeling would change real quick with a dominant first ALCS start! – but Game 7 might not even happen. Rodón’s second ALCS start will now be Game 5, which is much more likely to be played than Game 7. Again, it feels like the Yankees are doing the Guardians a favor with this decision.

“It just felt like it was close (between Rodón and Schmidt), and I feel like this kind of keeps them on rhythm as much as possible without giving one guy a huge, long layoff,” Aaron Boone said about going with Rodón in Game 1. “ … He's a really good pitcher. For him struggling there and getting knocked out in his last outing in the fourth – also feel like came out throwing the ball really well in his first big experience – hopefully it's something he can take from that outing that allows him to really break through and have that outing we know he's capable of.”

I suppose the good news is Rodón did not face the Guardians during the regular season. Rodón faced Cleveland a lot when he was in the AL Central with the White Sox, though that was a long time ago, and he’s a much different pitcher now than the guy who left Chicago. Also, Rodón got too fastball/slider heavy against the Royals in the ALDS. He needs to use his changeup and curve more to avoid being a predictable two-pitch pitcher against a lineup that punishes lefties.

Ultimately, Rodón has to start in the ALCS, there’s no avoiding him, and he has to pitch better than he did in the ALDS. The Yankees just have to be prepared in case things go sideways like they did in the ALDS. That first inning against Kansas City was maybe Rodón’s most dominant inning as a Yankee, then he didn’t get out of the fourth. The game can get away really quick when things begin to unravel on Rodón.

“If I look back at that start (ALDS Game 2), the first three innings went pretty well. I mean, my stuff was there. It was pretty electric,” Rodón said Sunday. “… It's kind of one of those things when I look back, just knowing to keep that focus and I guess channel that energy a little bit better so the focus stays on the field.”

The Yankees had three off-days leading into the ALCS, so the bullpen is rested, and you can trust Cole to give you innings in Game 2 as much as you can trust any pitcher in the league to give you innings. Rodón should have a short leash in Game 1 given the way the Guardians hit lefties and the way he gives up homers. Trying to steal one or two more outs can equal a big swing and runs on the board. The Yankees are putting their faith in Rodón. It’s time for him to reward it.

“Game 1 just sets the tone,” Rodón said Sunday. “Looking forward to being out there again, feeling the energy, and just giving my team the best chance to win.”

3. ALCS x-factors. Before the ALDS, I came up with four possible x-factors, and absolutely none of them mattered. The Yankees didn’t pitch around Bobby Witt Jr. (they got him out instead), they beat the Royals at the running game, Kansas City fared no better despite all those looks at Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver, and Austin Wells remained in the cleanup spot. Why does anyone listen to me? Hey, I’ll take the Ls if the Yankees win the series. Let’s try this again with ALCS x-factors, shall we? We shall.

Judge vs. Ramírez

As great as they are, neither Aaron Judge nor José Ramírez has a stellar postseason resume. Judge went 2-for-13 (.154) with a double, five walks, and five strikeouts in the ALDS. Ramírez went 3-for-16 (.188) with a double, a homer, three walks, and three strikeouts in his ALDS. Here are their career postseason lines:

• Judge: .207/.316/.446 (107 wRC+) with 13 HR, 13.9 BB%, 32.9 K% (216 PA)

• Ramírez: .236/.299/.357 (72 wRC+) with 3 HR, 7.8 BB%, 18.8 K% (154 PA)

Will those numbers make me feel any better when Ramírez comes to the plate in a big spot? No. No they will not. And I’m guessing Guardians fans won’t feel great when Judge bats. Both players are capable of locking it at a moment’s notice – the next swing could be The One – and doing major damage. Whatever the reason, neither has performed up to their usual standards in October. That doesn’t mean their October woes will continue forever.

Judge has a better supporting cast (i.e. Juan Soto) than Ramírez, so, in theory, the Yankees are better able to navigate a down series by their superstar than Cleveland. That said, Judge or Ramírez getting hot and having a big series is the kinda thing that can swing the ALCS. For what it’s worth, the Guardians have handled Judge better in the postseason than the Yankees have handled Ramírez:

• Judge vs. CLE: .122/.232/.327 with 3 HR, 12.5 BB%, 55.5 K% (56 PA)

• Ramírez vs. NY: .277/.340/.383 with 0 HR, 9.4 BB%, 22.6 K% (53 PA)

Judge had a historically awful 2017 ALDS against Cleveland (1-for-20 with 16 strikeouts). He also struck out four times in 11 plate appearances in the 2020 Wild Card Series and 11 times in 21 plate appearances in the 2022 ALDS. The Guardians are a really smart team, arguably the brightest pitching organization in the game, and they executed their plan perfectly against Judge in previous postseason matchups.

And yet, the Yankees beat Cleveland in the 2017 ALDS, 2020 Wild Card Series, and 2022 ALDS because they kept Ramírez in the park and had the better team and deeper lineup. Still, at some point Judge needs to break though, and the same goes for Ramírez and the Guardians. One of the two superstars going off this series could swing things, for sure. Keeping Ramírez down and getting Judge going is imperative.

Cleveland’s bullpen workload

The Guardians didn’t just have the best bullpen in baseball during the regular season. It was arguably the best bullpen ever. At +13.7 WAR, it’s the best bullpen in Baseball Reference’s database, easily clearing the previous record holder (2021 Yankees at +11.2 WAR). Look at their regular season marks:

• ERA: 2.57 (Brewers next at 3.11)

• FIP: 3.30 (Braves next at 3.41)

• K%: 26.0% (third behind Mets at 27.7% and Braves at 26.6%)

• WPA: +15.62 (Brewers next at +14.25)

Cleveland has a great bullpen and rookie manager Stephen Vogt uses it a lot. A LOT. Eleven relievers appeared in at least 74 regular season games and four are Guardians. Clay Holmes led the Yankees with 67 appearances and was the only reliever on the team with more than 62. The Guardians had six relievers make at least 63 appearances. Credit to those guys for staying healthy. They handled the workload exceptionally well.

That heavy workload continued in the ALDS. Rookie setup man Cade Smith (not to be confused with Yankees prospect and 2023 sixth rounder Cade Smith) appeared in all five games, got at least four outs four times, and threw 1.2 innings and 31 pitches in the Game 5 win Saturday. Lefty Tim Herrin also appeared in all five ALDS games. Emmanuel Clase appeared four times and threw 5.2 innings, including two innings Sunday. Setup man Hunter Gaddis also made four appearances.

The question is not will Vogt lean heavily on his bullpen. Of course he will. The question is how will these guys, particularly Clase and Smith, hold up under the workload? Clase gave up five earned runs during the regular season and four in the ALDS. Smith was awesome in the ALDS, but he’s never pitched this deep into the calendar in his life, and he’s thrown 103 pitches in the last nine days. Look at this (full-size image):

Cleveland played Saturday, had an off-day on Sunday, and that’s it. They bullpen gamed Game 5 against the Tigers – starter Matt Boyd went two innings by design (2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K) – and that meant multiple innings for Smith and Clase, and 31 stressful pitches for Gaddis. Again, these guys have answered the bell all year. They have taken the workload and performed. But this pace can’t continue all October, can it?

"We've relied on our bullpen all year long, but now in a seven-game, traditional seven games in nine days, you have to do it a little bit differently," Vogt said Sunday. "With the days off we had in the DS, it allowed us to really push the bullpen more than typically. Obviously these are the guys that helped us get to this point. They're going to be pitching."

The Yankees were very good at working the count during the regular season (highest walk rate, lowest case rate, third in pitches per plate appearance) and they took it up a notch in the ALDS. And, frankly, the Royals have a much better rotation than the Guardians. Seth Lugo got through five innings in his ALDS start, but Cole Ragans went only four innings in his, and Michael Wacha went four and 3.2 innings in his two starts.

The Guardians had the same three off-days ALDS schedule as the Yankees and that allowed them to start Tanner Bibee and Boyd twice in the five games series. Alex Cobb started the other game and he was on a pitch limit because he was coming off a blister issue. I guess Gavin Williams will join the ALCS rotation? Not sure. It’s not the most impressive ALCS starting staff though.

Easier said than done, of course, but carrying that ultra-disciplined approach from ALDS into the ALCS would give the Yankees such an advantage. Cleveland’s rotation is not imposing and their bullpen, as good as it is (and it’s great), has endured a big workload to get here. If you wear down the starters and the bullpen continues dominating under that workload, then credit to them. Make life hard on the bullpen though, and the other shoe may drop at some point in the series.   

The left field triangle

I still have PTSD from all those bloop hits to shallow left field in the 2022 ALDS. It is what the Guardians do. They did hit 185 home runs during the regular season, 61 more than last year, but those 185 homers were only 13th most in baseball. They’re not a power-hitting team. Their thing is dinking and dunking and doubling their way to enough runs to win.

Here are Cleveland’s fly balls, line dives, and pop ups during the ALDS:

Signs again point to the Guardians wearing out the left field triangle – the area in shallow left in front of the left fielder and between the shortstop and third baseman – again this series, much like 2022. It’s what the Guardians do. And I think the Yankees are much better equipped to handle those soft liners into the left field triangle this year than they were two years ago. Just look at who the Yankees used in the 2022 ALDS:

• SS: Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3.5 games, Oswaldo Cabrera 1.5 games

• 3B: Josh Donaldson all series

• LF: Oswaldo Cabrera 3.5 games, Aaron Hicks 1.5 games

Hicks collided with Cabrera on one of those shallow pop ups in Game 5 (that one was in foul territory) and had to exit the game with a knee injury, so Cabrera shifted from shortstop to left field and Kiner-Falefa came in to play short the rest of the game, hence the .5s there. (Looking this up reminded me Cabrera and Donaldson hit 5-6 in either order throughout the 2022 ALDS. Yuck.)

Point is, that was not the best defensive group in 2022. Donaldson could still pick it at third, but he was not all that rangy going back on the ball. Cabrera was an inexperienced left fielder (he made his first start in left that Sept. 20th) and Kiner-Falefa was out of position at short. The Guardians wore out the left field triangle and it worked. Balls kept dropping in between Cabrera, Kiner-Falefa, and Donaldson.

This year’s triangle unit is much more athletic and better defensively. Alex Verdugo is a good defender in left (not elite like the Yankees insist, but good) and both Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Anthony Volpe bring a lot of speed and range on the left side of the infield. In theory, this group has a better chance to run down those soft air balls to shallow left than the 2022 unit. If the Yankees are going to play Verdugo for his defense, this is where he has to make an impact. Take those soft singles in front of him away.

Elevated heaters

The Yankees and Guardians had identical 23.8% strikeout rates this year. Their pitchers get their strikeouts in different ways – the Yankees rely on chase while the Guardians have a bit more throw-it-by-you ability – but they wound up with identical regular season strikeout rates. Their hitters weren’t far apart either. Yankees hitters had a 21.2 K%. The Guards were at 20.2 K%. The MLB average was 22.6 K%.

Anyway, the Guardians like to challenge hitters and pitch up in the zone with fastballs, and the Yankees can be susceptible to elevated heaters. Here are their numbers against heaters in the upper third of the strike zone in August and September, a period that better represents the team they have on the field right now:

• AVG: .212 (MLB average: .244)

• SLG: .420 (MLB average: .432)

• xwOBA: .309 (MLB average: .286)

• Whiffs: 25.9% (MLB average: 23.0%)

The Yankees were a below average team against elevated fastballs the final two months of the regular season. The Guardians, meanwhile, threw 22.1% of their heaters up in the zone in August and September, and 11.3% of all their pitches were elevated fastballs the last two months. Those MLB averages are 18.8% and 10.5%, respectively. Cleveland was comfortably above that.

Soto was, by a mile, the Yankees’ best hitter against elevated heaters this year. Chisholm also did well against them both as a Yankee and also as a Marlin. Judge (.255 xwOBA and 41.1% whiffs), Austin Wells (.218 xwOBA and 32.7% whiffs), and Giancarlo Stanton (.232 xwOBA and 36.4% whiffs) can be beat with velocity upstairs though, and those are your 3-4-5 hitters. Potential problem, that is.

The Guardians are going to elevate fastballs against the middle of the order and the key to beating them is not necessarily figuring out a way to hit them, but to lay off them, and force Cleveland to go elsewhere. It’s hard, those high heaters look like they’re right down the middle out of the pitcher’s hand, then they’re by you. Stay disciplined, avoid whiffs and pop ups, and make the Guardians figure out another way to get their outs.

Miscellany

From the no duh department: The Yankees have to keep Steven Kwan off base. It won’t be easy and he’s swinging the bat well right now – Kwan went 11-for-21 (.524) in the ALDS and had three hits in Games 3, 4, and 5 – but the Guardians are a different team when he’s hitting and when he’s not … Shortstop Brayan Rocchio has a chance to be the Garrett Hampson of the ALCS, meaning that annoying bottom of the lineup guy who inexplicably hits after a poor regular season. Rocchio slashed .206/.298/.316 (79 wRC+) during the regular season, then went 6-for-16 (.375) with two doubles in the ALDS. He typically hits ninth and Kwan leads off. That wraparound 9-1 part of the lineup is of paramount importance … The Guardians have been using Austin Hedges as their closer behind the plate. Bo Naylor starts at catcher, then Hedges takes over for defense late. Naylor rates as a below average thrower and that’s something Chisholm and Volpe (and Jon Berti) should try to exploit … And finally, I would be delighted if Clase’s ALDS struggles continue into the ALCS, and Weaver continues his “actually, I’m the best reliever in baseball” act. May it be.

4. RAB update. Between the Yankees and Mets, I’m gonna log a lot of hours at the ballpark this week. I will do my best to have posts up in a timely manner, but if they have to wait until the afternoon of the day after a game, then that’s what it has to be. Thanks for understanding and that’s for reading.