September 27th, 2024: AL East, Judge, Domínguez, Mailbag

MY BAD: Sorry everyone, I accidentally scheduled this post for 6pm ET instead of 6am ET. That's why it was late today. My mistake.

ORIGINAL POST: The Dominican Winter League is indeed coming to Yankee Stadium. It was made official earlier this week. Rivals Tigres del Licey and Águilas Cibaeñas will play two games in the Bronx on Friday, Nov. 8th (6pm ET) and Saturday, Nov. 9th (2pm ET). Tickets go on sale today. Zoilo Almonte, Miguel Andujar, Cesar Cabral, Starlin Castro, Anderson Severino, Juan Then, and Arodys Vizcaino were among those to play for those two teams last winter. I know you know at least two of those guys, though all of them spent time with the Yankees (MLB or minors). Game 7 of the World Series is scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 2nd. You think six days will be enough time to get the champagne smell out of the home clubhouse carpet? I hope we find out. Here now is today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. In their last 54 games, exactly one-third of a season, the Yankees are 33-21, or a 99-win pace. It hasn’t always felt like it, and they’ve run hot and cold all year, but that’s baseball, right? It’s a long season and rarely does everything click at once. 159 of 162 are in the books. Here are a few quick thoughts on the last few games.

AL East champions

It took a little longer than I think we all hoped coming into the week, but the Yankees are AL East champs. They clinched the division with Thursday’s blowout win over an Orioles team that many folks, myself included, expected to win the AL East. Celebrating with the O’s sitting in the other dugout was delightful. Brian Cashman called last season a “disaster,” and it was. The Yankees are back where they belong.

"It means a lot," Aaron Boone said after the clincher (video). "You go into Spring Training wanting to get playoffs, we checked that box, then you want to win your division if you can. It's the American League East, we know what a gauntlet that is every year. We know it's gonna test you. Like I said, I feel like we've been through a lot as a team already this year. I'd like to think we're battle-tested for what's ahead. Really excited for these guys. They've kinda persevered through a lot of moments in the season. Long way to go, but I know we'll enjoy this right now."

The Killer Gs – Gerrit and Giancarlo – led the Yankees to Thursday’s AL East clinching win. Cole has been an animal these last 10 starts. He looks as good as he did at any point last season. He is peaking at the right time. Stanton had one of those “put the team on his back” games with a solo homer against Corbin Burnes and the game-breaking bases-clearing double (video). I love that man when he’s hitting.

Truth be told, the O’s conceded the division. Maybe conceded isn’t the right word, but they understood their situation, and pulled the dominant Burnes after five innings and 69 pitches to get him ready for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series on Tuesday. The Yankees immediately put a crooked number on the board and put the game to bed. Went from a pitchers’ duel to a laugher in about 15 minutes.

The Yankees have already clinched a Wild Card Series bye. Their postseason begins next Saturday with ALDS Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Opponent TBD. The Yankees are a game up on the Guardians for the AL’s No. 1 seed and thus home field advantage through the ALCS. The magic number of two. The Yankees are technically still alive in the race for the best record, but it's unlikely. They need to sweep this weekend and the Dodgers to get swept, so forget that. The bye is the most important thing and the Yankees got it.

This season was exciting, exhausting, historic, exasperating, deranged, you name it. In a league with no superteam, especially the American League, there’s no reason the Yankees can’t make noise in the postseason and play deep into October (and November!). They have the two best hitters in baseball and four postseason-caliber starters. Figure out the bullpen as you go, and win some games.

As recently as Sept. 8th, the Yankees were a half-game behind the Orioles and the AL East was essentially a toss up. Since then the Yankees are 11-5 and the Orioles are 6-10. The Yankees met the moment and took control of the division while the Baby Birds continued their run of mediocrity. Boone was right, it was right in front of them. A postseason berth was Step 1. The AL East is Step 2. Now we get to really important stuff in October. Giancarlo, are the Yankees team to beat? "We'd better be. That's the point," he told Bryan Hoch.

Miscellany

Aaron Judge has a five-game home run streak and is up to 58 for the season (video). 60 is within reach with three games to play. He could get there tonight! Judge indicated he will sit one game this weekend, so he has two games to hit homers. He’s sitting on 95 extra-base hits and 392 total bases. Can he get to 100 and 400? I hope so … Gleyber Torres’ baserunning mistake Tuesday (video) was obviously very bad and dumb. I thought it got too much blame for the loss though, as is often the case with most things Gleyber. If Torres stays at third, the O’s walk Judge, and it’s Austin Wells left-on-left against Gregory Soto because the Yankees don’t have a worthwhile righty pinch-hitter (and that only happens if Juan Soto doesn’t get tagged at second). The bullpen allowed the Orioles to continue tacking on runs and the 4-5-6 hitters went a combined 0-for-12. Pretty costly! On that note, here’s Ben Clemens on the slumping Wells:

Wells has hit a rookie wall in the last month, with an 18 wRC+ in the last 30 days. Righties have simplified their attack against him, hammering the zone with fastballs and then aiming sliders at his back foot. This feels like the kind of slump that’s part fatigue and part adjusting to the majors. Wells hasn’t been aggressive enough on early-count fastballs (his swing rate on in-zone fastballs in the first two pitches of an at-bat has fallen from 64% to 54%), and so pitchers are taking the invitation to get ahead. Given how many runners tend to be on base in front of him, that approach will probably continue. It’s up to him to make opposing pitchers reconsider.

Wells had a great at-bat against Cionel Perez to draw a bases loaded walk Thursday. Sometimes a walk and a good at-bat is all it takes to get a hitter moving in the right direction. Stanton’s hitting, Anthony Rizzo is having good at-bats and racking up singles, Judge is Judge, Soto is Soto, things are looking up (Wells took a beating behind the play Thursday. I’m guessing he’ll be out of the lineup Friday) … I can cut Marcus Stroman a little slack because he was pitching on short notice, but man is he dreadful. He faced 19 batters Wednesday and 10 had hits. If Jasson Domínguez makes that catch in left field, it’s nine hits among 19 batters, which sources say is still bad. Three swings and misses among 66 pitches and 12 of 18 batted balls with a 95+ mph exit velocity. He can’t miss bats or limit hard contact. The Nestor Cortes injury may force the Yankees to carry Stroman on the postseason roster, but he can’t see the mound in anything other than a blowout or an emergency … I’m glad (and was surprised) the Yankees ran Domínguez right back out there Thursday after the misplay Wednesday. He’s had a bad week in the field but he’s a better defender than we’ve seen. We know what Alex Verdugo is. If the Yankees decide to put Verdugo in left field in the postseason, they know what they’re going to get. Play Jasson these last few days and see what happens, good or bad (Domínguez has been up for five minutes and he already has three of the six hardest hit balls between him and Verdugo) … Clayton Beeter’s postseason roster audition is off to a bad start. Retired only four of the eight batters he faced and gave up some ropes Wednesday. When your audition is this short, four outs and two runs in your first outing isn’t gonna cut it … And finally, I need to show some love to Tommy Kahnle, because I don’t think I have at any point this season. He’s got a 1.71 (3.81 FIP) with 25.1 K% and 59.6 GB%. Tommy Changeup gets strikeouts and grounders, he shuts down righties and lefties, he can enter mid-inning and get out of a jam, whatever you need. Props to Kahnle on a mighty fine season. 

Injury updates and roster moves

Cortes (elbow) got a PRP injection and will be shut down 7-10 days. The MRI showed his UCL is intact. Boone admitted “I don’t know if (we’re) optimistic” about Cortes returning in the postseason, per Chris Kirschner. Boone downplays everything. If he says they’re not optimistic about Cortes being available at some point in the postseason, then forget it. See you in 2025, Nestor … Jake Cousins (pec) is optimistic he’ll be ready for the ALDS. His MRI came back clean, he was shut down for a few days, and he was going to play Thursday. He’ll presumably get on a mound next week sometime. That will be the real test … DJ LeMahieu (hip) is continuing to work out and Boone said the Yankees will “just keep monitoring that,” per Randy Miller. That is BooneSpeak for “we acknowledge his existence but have no intention of playing him” … Mark Leiter Jr. went on the paternity list Thursday (Mark Leiter III?) and Scott Effross came up to take his spot. Leiter pitched pretty well his last three times out (3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K), albeit all in low leverage. Still, there is a postseason bullpen spot or three up for grabs, and maybe Leiter’s recent performance puts him at the front of the line … And finally, Cody Poteet was called up to replace Cortes and he soaked up a few innings Wednesday: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K on 57 pitches. The Yankees did not send him down for a fresh arm after the game. That is notable because it keeps Poteet in play for the ALDS. Send him down and the 15-day waiting period kicks in, and he’s not eligible for the ALDS. I would be surprised if the Yankees left Stroman off the postseason roster, but maybe?

Up next

The final series of the regular season. Feels like that four-game sweep in Houston was three weeks ago. I swear, the season goes by a little quicker with each passing year. The Pirates are in the Bronx this weekend. Two years ago Judge hit his 60th homer against the Pirates at Yankee Stadium (remember this?). Maybe he'll hit No. 60 against the Pirates this year too. Here’s the final weekend:

• Friday vs. Pirates: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Jared Jones (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Saturday vs. Pirates: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Paul Skenes (1pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Sunday vs. Pirates: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Bailey Falter (3pm ET on YES)

Skenes, last year’s No. 1 pick, is having an unbelievable season: 1.99 ERA (2.48 FIP) with 32.9 K% and 6.3 BB% in 22 starts and 131 innings. Despite not debuting until May 11th, he is third among pitchers with +5.9 WAR, behind Tarik Skubal (+6.4 WAR) and Chris Sale (+6.3 WAR). It’s the best rookie season by a pitcher since at least the late José Fernández in 2013, and maybe since Doc Gooden in 1984.

These last three games are not completely meaningless because the Yankees still have to clinch the AL’s best record, but the most important stuff (AL East and Wild Card Series bye) is done. Get the No. 1 seed, watch Judge hit No. 60, marvel at Skenes, and relax a bit before the postseason begins. Excited for the final weekend, mostly because the stakes aren’t especially high.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. The Arizona Fall League rosters were (finally) announced Wednesday. The Yankees are sending six players to the desert: RHP Harrison Cohen, IF Caleb Durbin, C/1B Rafael Flores, RHP Jackson Fristoe, RHP Ryan Harvey, and OF Garrett Martin. I mentioned Cohen, Durbin, Harvey, and Martin as AzFL candidates two weeks ago, so go me. Fristoe had some buzz in Spring Training after his velocity jumped. He was limited to 38 innings by an injury this year and did not pitch after June 23rd, but he’s healthy now. Harvey (2022 11th round) and Fristoe (2022 12th round) are stuff guys and candidates to be the next interesting bullpen prospect even though the Yankees are currently trying to find out if either guy can hack it as a starter. Flores, one of my Prospects to Know coming into 2024, had a really good season: .279/.379/.495 (149 wRC+) with 31 doubles and 21 homers between High-A and Double-A. He also had one of the largest year-to-year 90th percentile exit velocity increases in the minors, per Geoff Pontes. Flores is a personal favorite and I’m glad he’s becoming a dude. MLB teams get seven AzFL roster spots, so the Yankees still might have another player coming, though it’s possible they’re only going with six this year. Pretty good crop of prospects going to Arizona even though there’s no big name like OF Spencer Jones, IF George Lombard Jr., etc. Here are all the AzFL rosters … And finally, the Athletics played their final game in Oakland on Thursday, and I was more upset and angry than I thought I would be as I watched the game. The crowd shots of fathers tearing up with their sons was gutting. I’m heartbroken for all the A’s fans who are losing their team, and none of this feels necessary. A's owner John Fisher's biggest accomplishment in life is winning the birth lottery and he's doing this only because he can. The A’s desperately need a new stadium, but they don’t need to leave Oakland. Baseball can work in the East Bay. It has for decades. Watching it play out in real time, this all feels like a mistake, and I suspect at least some of the people letting it happen know that. What a shame.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Emiliano asks: Although I’m happy the Yanks got the division title (this probably already happened by the time you reply to this) after a forgettable 2023 but I’m worried about getting a bye and not playing for so many days. Yes, it’s great getting all the arms fresh and rested but the bats concerns me. Am I exaggerating? 

Emiliano sent this question in five days ago and the Yankees clinched the night before the mailbag. They took it right down to the wire. Anyway, almost all the complaints I’ve seen about the bye have come from the Braves, a very whiny team with a very whiny fan base. They can’t just accept losing. It’s always someone else’s fault. The bye, the weather, whatever. The Braves have really fanned the anti-bye flames.

The fact of the matter is this postseason format has only been in place for two years and we simply don’t have enough information to say the bye is bad. The Astros won seven straight out of the bye in 2022 (and, you know, the World Series). The Yankees won the ALDS after a bye in 2022. Did the Dodgers lose the 2023 NLDS because their bats went cold during the bye, or because their starting pitchers gave up 13 runs in four innings in three games?

The bye is one day longer than the All-Star break. It’s nothing these guys haven’t been through before. You get five days to rest your players – no one is 100% this time of year – and align your pitching exactly how you want it going into the LDS. And, most importantly, you get to skip an entire round. You turn the four-step process that is winning the World Series into a three-step process. That reward is enormous.

If the bye is such a concern, then give the top two teams in each league the ability to pick the bye or playing in the Wild Card Series. Problem solved. (I think we all know how that will go.) The bats could go cold after the bye, sure, but a bunch of Yankees’ bats have gone cold this month without excessive rest, right? It’s just baseball. Give me the bye. Skipping a best-of-three ups your title odds significantly.

(These “is this good thing actually bad?” questions have been around forever,. It used to be you didn’t want to clinch too early because it would be hard to flip the switch back on after all those meaningless games in September. Now it might be bad to SKIP AN ENTIRE ROUND. I blame the Braves.)

Brian asks: Okay we need the official RAB prediction that everyone is yearning for: A) Will Verdugo start a playoff game; B) Will Clay pitch a meaningful inning in the playoffs (defined as up by 3 or fewer runs, tied, or down by 1). The chalk answer is yes, but I’m taking no +250!!

(A) is an easy yes. Alex Verdugo’s starting a postseason game. Not a doubt in my mind. The Yankees had a chance to clinch the AL East on Tuesday, they were coming out of an off-day, and they had Verdugo in left field over Jasson Domínguez. They want him to be The Guy. Maybe this is an Isiah Kiner-Falefa at short situation where he plays himself out of the lineup in October, but yeah, Verdugo’s starting a postseason game.

As for (B), I don’t think that’s a lock, but I would put money on it. Let’s call it 80-20 in favor of Clay Holmes pitching in a close postseason game. The best parallel for Holmes might be 2017 Dellin Betances. Dellin was awesome the previous few years, he was great to start 2017, then things unraveled in the second half, yet he still got high leverage innings. It wasn’t until the postseason that Betances got bumped down the pecking order. Dellin’s five postseason appearances:

• ALDS Game 1: Entered with the Yankees down four in the eighth.

• ALDS Game 2: Entered with the score tied in the 11th.

• ALDS Game 4: Entered with up four in the eighth.

• ALCS Game 3: Entered with the Yankees up eight in the ninth.

• ALCS Game 6: Entered with the Yankees down five in the eighth.

The Yankees had already used all their high leverage guys in ALDS Game 2 when Betances entered, and the bullpen was gassed in Game 4, so they tried to steal a few outs. Otherwise Betances was a low leverage guy in the postseason. Different manager back then, but it is the same front office, and the front office calls the shots. Maybe Holmes slides into a 2017 Betances role this postseason.

I would still bet a shiny nickel on Holmes pitching in a close game in the postseason because there are A LOT of innings to cover in October, and the current bullpen isn’t especially deep. It was easy to bury Dellin behind Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson, and the good version of Aroldis Chapman in 2017. How far down the depth chart do you have to go this year before Holmes is the best option? It’s not far!

Ray asks: The Yankees have had a terrific season despite the mid-season swoon. Do you think this means (Lord forbid) Cashman will stay in place and Boone will get another contract? Seems that’s the likely (and very sad) outcome. A good season doesn’t erase the FO and manager’s flaws.

Brian Cashman is coming back. He’s basically a Steinbrenner. Hal doesn’t seem to have much of an appetite for big decisions and replacing Cashman would require so much work (identify candidates, interviews, etc.) and is such a major decision that I don’t think Steinbrenner will (or wants to) go through with it. He’ll stick with what he knows because Cashman is doing what he wants. The Yankees are in contention (almost) every year, they stick to Hal’s payroll mandate, and the team is enormously profitable. Why would Hal make a change at GM? Cashman gives him everything he wants.

As for Aaron Boone, someone is going to get scapegoated if the Yankees don’t win the World Series, and letting Gleyber Torres and Alex Verdugo walk ain’t gonna cut it. Firing a coach or two ain’t gonna cut it either. I think this is a make or break postseason for Boone. I don’t think Cashman or Hal want to fire* Boone, but if they don’t win the World Series, I think they recognize something has to change, and it sure as hell won’t be them. Cashman’s safe. The Yankees bounced back from last year’s “disaster” – Cashman’s word – and Hal doesn’t want to fire him. Boone is on thinner ice. A quick postseason exit, and I think he’s a goner. 

* They won’t have to fire Boone. His contract is up after the season. The Yankees can simply not offer him a new contract and let him go, which is the same way the Joe Torre and Joe Girardi eras ended.

A different Brian asks: Earlier this season in one of your posts you discussed how the Yankees ran out the same lineup the most times in recent years. Not long after that post due to injuries and slumps that has not been the case. I was wondering how many different lineup variations they’ve had and how it’s compared to past years.

Yeah, once Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton got hurt, the consistent lineups went out the window. The Yankees have used their most commonly used lineup nine times this season – I doubt you’ll see it a tenth time – and they’ve used three other lineups at least five times each. Here are their most used lineups:

(To me, the most surprising thing is Jon Berti being in the starting lineup five times.)

From 2019-23, the Yankees used one lineup – one! – as many as four times in a season. This season is the first time they used a lineup as many as five times since 2017, and the first time they used a lineup as many as nine times since 2015. They used this lineup nine times in 2015.

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. LF Brett Gardner
3. DH Alex Rodriguez
4. 1B Mark Teixeira
5. C Brian McCann
6. RF Carlos Beltrán
7. 3B Chase Headley
8. SS Didi Gregorius
9. 2B Stephen Drew

Before this season, the last time the Yankees used four different lineups at least five times each was 2012. That was also the last time they used two lineups at least seven times each. Here are those 2012 lineups:

Any guesses which Jones that is? I thought it was Garrett initially, but no, I was way off. Garrett didn’t join the Yankees until 2015. That’s Andruw in the 2012 lineup. To answer Brian’s question, the Yankees have been way, way more consistent with their lineups this season, both in terms of personnel (who’s in the lineup) and lineup slot (who hits where). I’ve found it refreshing. Nice to know who’s playing where every night rather than having to guess the lineup on a daily basis.

Jonathan asks: On June 14th, the Yankees reached 50-22 on the season. Since then, they've played .500 baseball. It has not felt that way at all. That's because of how they did it - they went 10-23 for about 6 weeks, then turned it around and went 32-19. I'm curious how much importance you place on "momentum." If you assume the Yankees finish a season with 28 more games won than lost, how important is the order in which it happens? Had the Yankees gone win/loss/win/loss every game since June 14th, they would have the same record, but less "momentum." Is finishing "hot" meaningfully better going into the playoffs?

The Yankees topped out at 28 games over .500 on June 14th, slumped, and eventually got back to 28 games over .500 on Sept. 23rd. (They’re now 27 games over.) I don’t put much stock in “momentum” and there is plenty of evidence that how you finish the regular season doesn’t carry over into October. Every so often you’ll hear an announcer (in any sport, not just baseball) say “the momentum can change in an instant.” Well, if it can change in an instant, then what is momentum really worth?

Players are conditioned to take positives away from everything. If they finish the regular season well, then they will feel good going into the postseason. And if they finish the regular season poorly, they’ll look at the postseason as a fresh start. It’s probably better to start well then fade because you can then at least hang your hat on still having a good record rather than starting poorly, getting hot, and having to play catch up all year. Nothing worse than playing from behind. Force me to pick, and I’ll say I’d rather finish the season strong and have “momentum” going into October, but I don’t think it makes much of a difference.

Andrew asks: How would you rank MLB's recent rule and scheduling changes? Are there any you would undo? Ban on shifts, larger bases, limits on pickoff attempts, pitch clock, universal DH, extra-innings runner rule, 3-batter minimum, balanced schedule, new Wild Card series format. (Am I missing any?)

That looks like all the rule changes, minus the seven-inning doubleheaders that went away a few years ago. The players (less work) and owners (charge nine-inning prices but have only seven innings of overhead) loved those, but no one else did, and thankfully they went away. Oh, and no more Game 163 tiebreakers. Those went away too – all ties are broken mathematically now – and that sucks out loud. 

(Maybe Monday’s Braves-Mets doubleheader will be chaotic and compelling enough to convince MLB and the MLBPA to bring Game 163s back.)

The shift ban, disengagement limit, pitch clock, and universal DH are all easy thumbs up for me. I know I’m in the minority, but I enjoy the extra-innings rule. It creates action (artificially) and games don’t drag on and on. I don’t miss 14, 15, 18-inning games in a slightest. The three-batter minimum is good too. Does anyone miss three-batter, three-pitcher innings? I sure don’t. The world has evolved beyond the need for LOOGYs.

I don’t like the current postseason format. Too many teams. Let’s be real here, when the Royals and Tigers and Twins are all angling for spots like they are now, there are too many teams in the tournament. I enjoyed the Wild Card Game and would welcome a return to the previous format. Alas, the postseason only gets bigger, not smaller. The league will push for a 14-team postseason in the next CBA. Take it to the bank.

I’m on the fence about the new, more balanced schedule. On one hand, I think it’s good for baseball that every team plays every other team every year. Why should fans in, say, Milwaukee have to wait 3-6 years to see Aaron Judge come through? On the other hand, why are the Yankees playing the Pirates on the last weekend of the season? The Yankees were done with the Rays on July 21st. It feels like there are too few division games now. At least distribute them a little better (easier said than done, I know).

I just now noticed Andrew asked me to rank these rule changes, so here are my rankings:

1. Pitch clock
(huge gap)
2. Universal DH
3. Extra-innings rule
4-6. Shift ban, disengagement limit, three-batter minimum (any order works)
7. More balanced schedule
8. New postseason format
(huge gap)
9. No more Game 163s

The pitch clock is the best thing to happen to baseball since the DH. It’s one of those rule changes that, now that we have it, I wonder how we ever lived without it. Go back and watch a game from 2021 start to finish, with the commercial breaks and the hitter stepping out of the box and everything, and you won’t believe how slow the pace is. Those are my rankings. I don’t love the postseason format. I can live with just about everything else.

Dylan asks: On Tuesday night, the Orioles -- on the brink of losing the AL East to the Yankees -- had a champagne celebration for their wild card berth. This got me thinking: has there ever been (figuratively, or literally) two champagne celebrations in one ballpark on the same night? I.e., where the winning team won the division, while the losing team clinched the wildcard? 

It’s never happened as far as I can tell. Certainly not within the last 10-15 years or so. It is possible, though a lot of things will have to go exactly right – one team will need a win to clinch and the other will need a third team to lose to clinch, plus the schedule has to align so they’re playing each other – so it’s unlikely. There could not have been two celebrations Tuesday. The O’s needed a win and a Twins loss to clinch. There was no way for the Orioles to clinch without the Yankees losing and thus failing to clinch the AL East. One day there will be dual celebrations. Maybe not until we’re all long gone, but it’ll happen one day. 

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)