September 20th, 2024: Postseason, Soto, Holmes, Volpe, Mailbag

Surprise: Alex Cora was not disciplined for admitting the Red Sox threw at Aaron Judge last weekend. I guess his comment was vague enough – “We had our shot in the sixth inning and it didn't happen” – to escape punishment. “We got too much important things going on in front of us right now to really get caught up in that,” Aaron Boone told Gary Phillips when asked about Cora not being disciplined. The Red Sox will be officially eliminated in a few days. Wolves don’t concern themselves with the opinions of sheep. Here now is today’s post as Jazz Chisholm Jr. breaks out the Ken Griffey Jr. home run pose in Seattle.

1. Weekday thoughts. I want to thank the Mariners for showing me that, no matter how bad the Yankees are at running the bases, it can always be worse. Victor Robles’ attempted steal of home with the bases loaded, two outs, and a 3-0 count Monday night (video) is on the short list of the dumbest things I’ve seen on a baseball field. Julio Rodríguez then one-upped it Tuesday when he aimlessly wandered off third base after avoiding Randy Arozarena’s flying bat (video). That gave us this towering screen grab:

After the game, Julio said he thought the ball was dead, but no, that’s now how this works. I checked the rulebook just to be sure. It covers what happens when a flying bat hits the ball, a runner, or a fielder. When the bat doesn’t make contact with anything, it’s a live ball and business as usual. The Julio play was weird and dopey. Robles trying to steal home was straight up boneheaded. Not a mystery how the Mariners managed to blow a 10-game lead in 24 days, is it? Here are a few thoughts on this week’s series in Seattle.

Postseason clinched

The long one-year postseason drought is over. Wednesday’s 10-inning win clinched a postseason berth. The Yankees were the first American League team to clinch a spot in the tournament and the second team overall. The Brewers beat them to it by a few hours. They clinched the NL Central when the Cubs lost to the Athletics earlier in the day Wednesday. The Dodgers and Guardians have since clinched spots as well.

“It stuck with us a long time, as it should,” Gerrit Cole told Greg Joyce about last season during the team’s celebration. “It does when it means a lot to you. I think it makes it more validating this year that we were able to come back and get in so soon. There’s a lot of hard work that went into it."

The Yankees celebrated after clinching (here’s the video) and I know some folks get crabby when the Yankees celebrate anything other than a World Series, but man, go enjoy it. It’s a long season and it’s hard to get through it as one of the league’s best teams. Celebrate getting in, understand it’s only Step 1, and celebrate a little harder each step of the way. They earned it. Every team that gets in does.

"We're excited," Aaron Judge told Gary Phillips. "We definitely know the job's not finished. We're hunting this division, but to get an opportunity to punch our ticket back in the postseason after missing out last year means a lot. It means a lot. We got a special group here. The boys are definitely excited, but they know the mission that's definitely ahead of us."

Wednesday’s win clinched a postseason berth and also gave the Yankees a season high five-game lead in the AL East (it's back to four games following Thursday's loss). The Orioles, man. What is going on there? They’ve lost eight of their last 11 games and 35 of their last 63 games. They’ve stopped hitting – Adley Rutschman has a 70 wRC+ in the second half!* – and they’re short on pitching, both starters and relievers. Things are rough in Charm City.

* Adley’s extended struggles started right after he took a foul tip to the right hand on June 27th (video). He probably isn’t 100% and probably hasn’t been for some time. 

While the O’s faded, the Yankees have taken care of business, and they gained 5.5 games in the standings in 13 days. The AL East race is not over, not with that three-game series against Baltimore looming next week, but the Yankees are in excellent shape. A good graph, this is:

Clinching a postseason berth is Step 1. Next is winning the division and securing a Wild Card Series bye, and maybe even the best record in baseball. That’ll ensure home field advantage throughout October. Here’s where the Yankees stand in the various races:

• Four games up on the O’s. The magic number in the AL East is six.

• Six games up on the Astros. The magic number over Houston is three.

• Half-game up on the Guardians. The magic number over them is eight.

• Two games behind the Dodgers and Phillies for the best record in baseball.

It’s unlikely, but the Yankees could wrap up the AL East on the road trip and render that three-game series with the Orioles next week meaningless. That would be nice, clinch the division ASAP, but I can’t lie, part of me would love to watch the Yankees clinch against the O’s and rub their faces in it a little bit. Seems like Baltimore is finding out it’s easy to be the young up and coming team, but being expected to win is a different animal.

Clinching a better record than the Astros would give the Yankees a Wild Card Series bye, assuming they win the division. It’s a bit quirky, but they could ensure a bye before winning the division. Cleveland has the second best record in the AL and, really, as long as the Yankees get a bye, I don’t care if they’re the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Would be nice to have the best record though, and as much home field advantage as possible.

Catching the Dodgers and Phillies for the best record in baseball will take some work. The Dodgers have the tiebreaker, so the Yankees must pass them (the Yankees have the tiebreaker over the Phillies and only need to finish with the same record). The best record equals home field advantage throughout, and even though a World Series matchup with the Dodgers or Phillies is unlikely (because a matchup between any two specific teams is unlikely), home field advantage is something you would rather have a not need than need and not have. 

The rest of the races will be decided in time. The most important right now is the Yankees look as good and as complete as they have at any point this season. The pitching staff is as healthy as it’s been all year and almost everyone is performing well. They have five starters with a strong case to start a postseason game and Ian Hamilton’s return has been a big lift for the bullpen too.

Also, Gleyber Torres solved the leadoff problem and Austin Wells has emerged as a trustworthy cleanup hitter behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. The first 3-4 months of the season, the leadoff spot and the cleanup spot were problems. No one was getting on base ahead of Soto and Judge, and no one behind them was driving them in. They were a two-man army. Now they have help, and the lineup has filled out.

"A lot of things have come together,” Aaron Boone told Phillips about the team’s recent play. “… We haven't done anything yet, but so far, we've put ourselves in a position to go achieve that. So it's all you can hope for at this point, and hopefully we just keep rolling.”

Who knows how things will go in the postseason. Even the best teams can get sent home quickly (see: 2023 Braves, 2022 Dodgers, 2021 Giants, etc.). What I do know is that, compared to the rest of the league, the Yankees are healthy, and they’re performing well in almost every aspect. Things are coming together at the right time. It’s exciting. Still work to be done, but the Yankees look really good right now.

"We're gonna enjoy this one for now, but we got business to take care of,” Nestor Cortes told Phillips. “Our goal is to win the division and keep going from there. Our ultimate goal is to win the World Series.”

No. 30, No. 40, and No. 200

Soto checked three boxes with his two-run home run Tuesday night (video). Well, four if you count breaking the game open and turning it into a laugher. First, it was Soto’s first home run at T-Mobile Park, and that completes the set. He’s now homered at all 30 ballparks. Entering 2024, he was missing Angel Stadium, Guaranteed Rate Field, Globe Life Field, Progressive Field, and T-Mobile Park. He got them all this year.

"It's a great feeling for me,” Soto told Phillips about going deep in all 30 parks. “It's so many different ballparks, so many different dimensions. I just wanted to get all of them checked in. What a best way to go to free agency with all 30 ballparks checking my list."

Scott Boras has him trained well, eh? Second, Tuesday’s homer was Soto’s 40th of the season, extending his career high. He and Aaron Judge join Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig (1927, 1930, 1931) and Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle (1961) as Yankees teammates with 40-homer seasons. Soto (40) and Judge (53) are closing in on becoming the sixth set of teammates with 100 combined homers too.

1. Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris, 1961 Yankees: 115
2. Rich Aurilia and Barry Bonds, 2001 Giants: 110
3. Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, 1927 Yankees: 107
4. Ray Lankford and Mark McGwire, 1998 Cardinals: 101
5. Rafael Palmeiro and Alex Rodriguez, 2002 Rangers: 100

Soto and Judge can hit seven homers in the last nine games, can’t they? I think so. And third, Tuesday’s homer was also the 200th of Soto’s career. At 25 years and 328 days, he’s the seventh youngest player to reach the milestone (Mel Ott was the youngest at 25 years and 144 days), and the six guys to get there at a younger age than Soto all finished their careers with between 511 and 703 homers. Sheesh.

Soto’s 200 homers are the ninth most ever through a player’s age 25 season and he could finish the year with the sixth most homers through age 25, maaaybe the fifth most if he really goes on a tear. Here are the most home runs through the age 25 season:

1. Alex Rodriguez: 241
2. Jimmie Foxx: 222
3. Eddie Mathews: 222
4. Mel Ott: 211
5. Mickey Mantle: 207
6. Frank Robinson: 202
7. Albert Pujols: 201
8. Mike Trout: 201
9. Juan Soto: 200 with nine games to play

Another one of those lists that is eight of the greatest players ever, and Juan Soto. Soto also has 764 walks, by far the most through age 25. Mantle is a distant second with 670. His 160 OPS+ is fourth highest all-time through age 25 among players with 4,000 plate appearances. I mean, being one of only 16 players with 4,000 plate appearances through age 25 is an accomplishment in and of itself. You have to be really, really good to play this much at such a young age.

With one swing Soto hit his 40th homer of 2024, the 200th home run of his career, and completed the set of all 30 ballparks. He’s hitting .286/.418/.575 (180 wRC+) this year and is second among qualified hitters in wRC+, but also second on his own team (Judge is at .321/.455/.687 and 213 wRC+). Mike King (and Kyle Higashioka!) has been great for the Padres. A win-win trade, this has been. Now Hal Steinbrenner just needs to pony up and make sure Soto spends the rest of his career in pinstripes.

We’re still doing this with Holmes, huh

The Yankees removed Clay Holmes from the closer’s role but they never actually took him out of high leverage situations. He’s blown two saves since losing the closer’s job, including one in Wednesday’s win. Hanging a slider and giving up a solo homer that stayed just inside the foul pole in a one-run game is about as normal a blown save as Holmes has had all year, but it is a blown save nonetheless.

Since giving up the walk-off grand slam in Texas and losing the closer’s job, Holmes is second on the Yankees in leverage index behind Tommy Kahnle (yes, he’s ahead of Luke Weaver), and five of his six appearances have come in a one-run or tie game. In the other game, he entered with a three-run lead. The Yankees never changed his role. They changed the inning he pitches, but Holmes is still a high leverage guy. I made a meme:

I said this after the grand slam in Texas: Ultimately, it’s on Holmes to get the outs he’s asked to get, but Boone and the Yankees deserve some blame too because they continue to run him out there in important situations. They never bumped him down into lower leverage work to rebuild confidence and work on things in situations that are not as dire. It’s obliviousness or negligence. I don’t know which is worse.

The Yankees only have nine games remaining. There’s not much time left to use Holmes in lower leverage situations and hopefully get him going in the right direction. It seems they’re just gonna wing it and count on him to get big outs, which is a mistake. You know Holmes isn’t right when he’s giving up home runs, and he’s given up some dingers lately. The bullpen hierarchy should be this for the time being:

• Closer: RHP Luke Weaver

• Setup vs. RHB: RHP Jake Cousins*, RHP Ian Hamilton

• Setup vs. LHB: LHP Tim Hill, RHP Tommy Kahnle

• Low leverage: RHP Clay Holmes, RHP Mark Leiter Jr., LHP Tim Mayza

• Long: RHP Marcus Stroman

* if healthy (more on Cousins in a bit)

Again, Holmes needs to get the outs he’s asked to get, but Boone and the Yankees haven’t done a good job putting him in positions to succeed these last few weeks. They keep sending him out there in close games and in important situations where any failures get magnified. They took Leiter out of high leverage work. Why not Holmes? Shoutout to the Orioles for making all these blown saves less painful than they could be. 

"The reality is, he's still really good,” Boone told Bryan Hoch about Holmes. “His stuff is really good, and he's going to get big outs for us."

Volpe sits again, gets pinch-hit for

Anthony Volpe was not in the starting lineup Tuesday night for the second time in eight games after starting each of the previous 139 games at shortstop. Boone said he wanted to get Volpe off his feet for a second straight day following Monday’s off-day and implied that he’s a little beat up, which I can buy. The Yankees are 153 games into the season. No one is 100% this time of year.

But then, on Thursday, Volpe was removed for a pinch-hitter (Oswaldo Cabrera) in the ninth inning against Andrés Muñoz. That was a bit surprisingly because Volpe is the Golden Child. The Yankees have a lot riding on him, both on the field and reputationally, and pulling him for a pinch-hitter was the first real acknowledgment that he’s not getting it done. Volpe is hitting …

• .151/.164/.151 (-17 wRC+) since September 1st

• .213/.255/.300 (54 wRC+) since August 1st

• .222/.259/.335 (65 wRC+) since July 1st

• .221/.251/.326 (60 wRC+) since June 1st

• .238/.275/.359 (77 wRC+) since May 1st

… and at some point that is not okay. It appears the Yankees have reached that point. Volpe was out of the lineup twice in eight games and then he was removed for a pinch-hitter. Things have advanced to the “we acknowledge he doesn’t give us the best chance at the plate” stage. The Yankees can be stubborn – very stubborn – but they’re approaching their limit with Volpe.

“He’s been clearly up and down from that standpoint throughout the season,” Boone said about Volpe’s bat before Tuesday’s game (video). “He’s made some noticeable adjustments over the winter and into the season that’s had some good results, but he’s had some struggles with it too. I do feel like it’s on his way to being a complete product – whenever that is – as an offensive player. But I feel like he can work through this and hopefully get on a good note going into what we hope is October baseball and beyond.”

Volpe is a very good defender but defense can't be everything. He has more plate appearances (656) than defensive chances (535)! The bat is going backwards, which is a disastrous trend for the Yankees, and at minimum warrants giving Cabrera an occasional start at shortstop. Waldo’s hitting .292/.347/.427 (121 wRC+) since July 1st. The Yankees aren’t wrong to play him more.

We’ll dive into Volpe’s season, his progress, and his future in the offseason. The Yankees can’t really wait that long though, right? They’re in a division race and will soon be in the postseason, and they have to get their best players on the field more often than not. Increasingly, that group does not include Volpe even with his defense. Hopefully he gets hot soon – Volpe’s hot streaks tend to be very hot – and it carries over into October. Right now though, his grip on a lineup spot is growing tenuous.

Miscellany

Jasson Domínguez muscled a changeup out to center field for his first home run of the year Tuesday night (video). I did not expect that ball to get out off the bat (neither did Jasson based on the way he broke out of the box) but hoo boy, that’s a strong young man. I was curious, so I looked up similar pitches – down and away righty changeups to a lefty hitter – and almost 1,300 of them have been put in play this season. Turns out Domínguez’s dinger is a close to a 1 of 1 situation:

The out to the right of Domínguez’s homer was a fly ball to the wall in spacious Coors Field (video). Homer or no homer, it’s not often a lefty hitter drives a down and away righty changeup deep to dead center like El Marciano did Tuesday. What a sneaky impressive home run (Domínguez badly misplayed two fly balls in the series, so I guess we have to take the bad with the good no matter who the Yankees stick in left field) … Austin Wells cleared the bases with a double Tuesday (video) and it was his first extra-base hit against a lefty all season. He’s hitting .203/.304/.220 (59 wRC+) against lefties, but it’s not like Jose Trevino is mashing against southpaws (.186/.276/.349 and 78 wRC+), so there are no good options. Maybe Tuesday’s double is a sign Wells, who’s hitting .253/.339/.465 (126 wRC+) against righties, is growing more comfortable against lefties … Anthony Rizzo drove in both runs in the win Wednesday and any offense the Yankees get out of him is a pleasant surprise. I don’t go into his at-bats expecting much. It is nice to have an actual first baseman playing first base though. Rizzo saved what, four errors with great scoops in Seattle? Other than Ben Rice for a few games, no one the Yankees have put at first base this season has hit. Rizzo is at least a classically trained first baseman. His glove was a difference-maker this week … Reliever Marcus Stroman looked a lot like Starter Marcus Stroman. He got a three-inning save in Tuesday’s blowout win – it was the first time all year the Mariners allowed 10+ runs at home – but his velocity didn’t tick up …

… and there were a lot of long counts (64 pitches to get nine outs) and more baserunners than you’d like. It is what it is. This is what Stroman is at this point in his career. Fortunately, the Yankees are in a position where they don’t need to start him in the postseason, or even need him to get important outs. If they get to a point in October where their season is riding on Stroman, then a lot will have gone wrong to get them to that point … An finally, Giancarlo Stanton sat Tuesday and Wednesday following Monday’s off-day and it seems that has more to do with getting Judge off his feet for an extended stretch than anything. Yeah, the Yankees want to keep Alex Verdugo in the lineup (more than they should), but Judge is the priority and I think the Yankees want to ease up on him without taking him out of the lineup. Only way to do that is to sit Stanton. 

Injury updates and roster moves

Soto will have an x-ray on his left knee after sliding into the sidewall Thursday (video). His knee hit the concrete under the padding, much like Judge’s toe injury last year. Soto stayed in the game and told Erik Boland he “feels pretty good, not bad at all” afterward, so that’s good. The Yankees have a postseason spot locked up and are in a good place in the AL East. If Soto needs a day, then give him a day. Better to sit him a day now than not have him for even one inning in October … Jake Cousins exited Thursday’s game with a tight pectoral. He said he first felt it last Saturday and it got better this week, but he felt it again Thursday and didn’t want risk further injury. Not sure what the next step is, but losing Cousins would not be good. Imagine saying that in April? … Cody Poteet’s 30-day rehab window expired Wednesday, but the Yankees never announced a roster move. Not sure what that’s about. I dunno. Maybe we’ll find out Friday. The Yankees can activate Poteet and option him to Triple-A, though they do need to open a 40-man roster spot when he comes off the 60-day injured list. Perhaps DJ LeMahieu goes on the 60-day injured list? … And finally, the Yankees extended Lou Trivino’s rehab last week but he hasn’t appeared in a game since last Friday. Not sure what’s going on there. Sunday is the final day of his 10-day rehab extension. The Yankees could request another one, and if they do that, it effectively means Trivino’s season is over and he’s not considered a big league bullpen option.

Up next

The last time the Yankees will play in Oakland, assuming A’s owner John Fisher gets his ducks in a row with Sacramento and Las Vegas. With respect to Domingo Germán’s perfect game, the greatest Yankees moment at the Oakland Coliseum is Derek Jeter’s Flip Play, which was incredible on its own and is made more extraordinary by the fact it came in a game the Yankees won 1-0 while down 2-0 in the ALDS and facing elimination. Here’s the box score. It is not a stretch to call the Flip Play a season-saver.

This is the A’s second-to-last home series and attendance has ticked up in recent weeks, I guess as fans head to the Coliseum one last time to say goodbye to their team. They drew over 70,000 for the two-game Bay Bridge Series with the Giants a few weeks ago. Wouldn’t be shocked to see a relatively packed house this weekend and the three games draw over 100,000. Here are the details for this weekend:

• Friday at A’s: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP J.T. Ginn (9:40pm ET on YES)

• Saturday at A’s: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP JP Sears (9pm et on YES)

• Sunday at A’s: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Joey Estes (4pm ET on YES)

• Monday: off-day 

The A’s have been sneaky good lately! They are 37-30 in their last 67 games and they have some legit players. Brent Rooker (171 wRC+) is one of the very best hitters in baseball, Lawrence Butler (137 wRC+) is the best hitter you’ve never heard of, and JJ Bleday (124 wRC+) seems to be figuring things out. And if they have a lead in the late innings, they’ll drop the hammer with Mason Miller.

This weekend the Orioles will play a red-hot Tigers team that is tied with the Twins for the third Wild Card spot (Minnesota has the tiebreaker though). Too bad Tarik Skubal won’t pitch in the series (he started Wednesday). Take care of business in Oakland, get some help from the Tigers, and the AL East title could be clinched before the O’s come to the Bronx next week. That would be ideal, even if it is unlikely.

(Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt, and Cole are lined up to start the O’s series, all with an extra day of rest. The Yankees could easily bump Cortes or Schmidt to the bullpen, and move Cole and Rodón up a day so Rodón starts against Baltimore. With any luck, it won’t matter in the slightest.)

2. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Randy Miller, Mariners television play-by-play man Dave Sims is a candidate to replace John Sterling in the radio booth, and he’s already interviewed for the job. “We’ll see what happens. I love what I’m doing here in Seattle. New York is home. That’s all I can say,” he told Miller. Sims is from Philadelphia, he lives in New York in the offseason, and his kids and grandkids are in the area. He got his start at the New York Daily News and was on WFAN and WCBS 880 in the 1980s and 1990s. I really enjoy Sims, he’s one of my favorite broadcasters because he’s witty and has a flair for the dramatic, and he has a distinctive voice. Personally, I hope Sims gets the job. Sims or Rickie Ricardo, please and thank you.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jonathan asks: In general like you, I get really frustrated by the Yankees but as many fans we see our team’s flaws (and there are many). But if you look around the league is there any super team? Doesn't seem so. Is it crazy to say the Yankees have as a good a chance to win it all since that fun season of 2017? I mean the Astros aren't as scary and by the postseason the Dodgers will be asking you and me to pitch with all those injuries. The Yankees don't scare anyone but who in the league really is scary? I don't think the Yankees are the best team but who is really so great? 

When you’re a fan of one team and you watch that team every single day, you see all the little flaws and they stick out to you, but every team – every single one – has similar flaws. We just don’t notice them. There is no great team this season. Not in either league. The Phillies might have the best roster top to bottom, but they’re probably the worst “best team in baseball” in a few years. The Dodgers are running out of pitching, the Astros are good but not what they once were, the Brewers are short on reliable starters and power, so on and so forth. I’m coming around on the idea of the Padres being the scariest team in the postseason. Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, Mike King, and Joe Musgrove is a really strong rotation (in whatever order), the bullpen is so deep and so good, and they have a good offense with two guys who can change the game in any at-bat (Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.) plus another who never strikes out and is maybe the last guy I want to see at the plate with runners on base (Luis Arraez). The Yankees are really good and have as good a chance to win the World Series as any team this year. Maybe even a better chance than any team because their pitching is mostly healthy, and they’re going to go into every postseason game with the two best hitters on the field. The AL in particular is wide open. This might be the best chance the Yankees will have to win the World Series since the dynasty years.

Jim asks: We just spent a few weeks watching the Yankees play down to bad teams like the White Sox. But they also have MLB’s best record (51-34) against teams above .500. It’s not even that close – the Brewers are next at 46-35 (the Orioles are 7th at 40-40). Maybe some of that is from early in the season. Do you think it means anything? Do the Yankees also play “up”? Is there any evidence that teams with good records against teams above .500 tend to do a little better in the playoffs, or does that all go out the window in October?

Updating Jim’s numbers: The Yankees are now 54-36 against teams over .500. The Brewers are next at 49-38 and the Orioles are 41-41. This all goes out the window in October though. All the little ways you can slice and dice regular season results (run differential, record in September, record against your postseason opponent, etc.) have been shown to have little predictive value in the postseason. Ultimately, all the regular season stuff matters a lot less than, say, Gerrit Cole hanging a slider to Yordan Alvarez or Juan Soto’s line drive landing just fair instead of just foul. The postseason is subject to randomness. I hate saying it’s a crapshoot because that implies it’s impossible to build a team well-equipped to win a short series, but there is a lot of randomness to it. The Yankees have played very well against teams over .500 and that’s great, because if they hadn’t, they wouldn’t be in position to win the AL East and get a Wild Card Series bye. It’s an easy narrative to craft, but your regular season record against winning teams doesn’t tell you anything about what will happen in October. Everything starts anew in the postseason.

Stan asks: Would you rather have Stroman or Poteet for the final pen spot for the postseason? Poteet looked really good to me, albeit in small samples this year. If he's healthy, would he be a better option than Stroman in the pen? Or is it close enough that the vet with experience gets the nod? Not sure how Stroman's soft contact approach works well in the bullpen.

Cody Poteet did look good in his four starts, though a) it was only four starts, b) his underlying numbers in those four starts were worse than Marcus Stroman’s season numbers (15.9 K% and 5.12 xERA vs. 17.1 K% and 4.86 xERA), and c) he’s coming off a pretty significant injury. Both guys would fill the same role in the postseason – emergency longman you don’t use unless you absolutely must – and that role is largely inconsequential. If the season comes down to Poteet or Stroman, the Yankees have much bigger problems and are screwed either way. I assume the Yankees would go with Stroman over Poteet because he’s the more veteran and more accomplished pitcher, and has the bigger contract. (It’s possible there will be room for both of them in the postseason bullpen, though that would not make me feel good about the bullpen overall.)

George asks: I'm of the belief that this off season will either be the year Spencer Jones is traded, or the one where the Yanks make the commitment to give him his MLB shot. Am I wrong? If they did trade him, what's a realistic return, prospect for prospect, or a decent major leaguer?

Double-A Somerset hung on to win their division and, in Game 1 of the Division Series earlier this week, Jones hit a mammoth homer off Rockies RHP Chase Dollander: 115 mph off the bat and 453 feet. Here’s the video. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Dollander the No. 4 prospect in the game in their latest top 100 prospects update. That’s why, no matter how much Jones strikes out, it would be premature to give up on him. He’s only 23 and he can do that. Aaron Judge was 25 in his rookie year, remember.

The Yankees made Jones available at the trade deadline – Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) and Jeff Passan (subs. req’d) both reported it – though my sense is they were only willing to move him for a really good player with long-term control. Someone like, say, Garrett Crochet. Not a rental like Tanner Scott or whoever. It stands to reason then that Jones will be available this offseason, though his excellent (but still strikeout-filled) finish to the season could have changed things. He was so good the last few weeks.

I don’t share George’s belief that this is essentially a make or break offseason for Jones. This was only his second pro season, he doesn’t have to go on the 40-man roster until next winter, and he did get better as the season progressed. That doesn’t mean the Yankees should make him untouchable, just that I don’t see this as “trade him now or fully commit to him” time. My preference would be to trade Jones because the strikeout stuff scares me. I can understand keeping him if the offers aren’t there though.

(Somerset swept the best-of-three Division Series to clinch a spot in the best-of-three Eastern League Championship Series. They’ll play either Erie (Tigers) or Akron (Guardians). That series is tied 1-1 with the decisive Game 3 set for Friday. The Championship Series begins Tuesday.) 

Brian asks: Random thought that might be better suited for an offseason mailbag, the Yankees should trade for LaMonte Wade Jr. to play first next year.

It sounds like Giants POBO Farhan Zaidi is on the way out. Andrew Baggarly (subs. req’d) says Buster Posey, who has an ownership stake and is on the team’s executive board, spearheaded the recent extension talks with Matt Chapman because the board was “frustrated by the lack of immediate progress between Zaidi and agent Scott Boras.” Susan Slusser says the board will make a decision about Zaidi’s future at the end of the season, and that’s not usually something you hear about someone whose job is safe.

So, until we know what the Giants plan to do with their front office, it’s hard to know if Wade will be available this winter. He’s one of Zaidi’s big wins and Zaidi may not want to move him, but a new lead exec could go sign Pete Alonso or Christian Walker or something. I wouldn’t think so given recent reports about ownership being unhappy with the team’s luxury tax status, but they did just sign Chapman, so who knows. The season ends in 10 days and the Giants will miss the postseason. We should hear something soon.

Wade, 30, is hitting .267/.390/.371 (119 wRC+) this season, his third season in the 120 wRC+ range in the last four years (he had a 93 wRC+ while playing through a knee injury in 2022). He’s a full-time first baseman now, which works fine for the Yankees, though his power output is low for the position even adjusting for Oracle Park. Wade is an on-base guy who can pop 15 or so homers. Maybe 20 with the short porch. Here are his 2024 percentiles:

• 90th percentile exit velocity: 73rd

• Max exit velocity: 68th

• Pulled fly balls: 45th

• SEAGER: 44th

• Chase rate: 90th

• In-zone contact rate: 70th

I thought Wade would be a SEAGER darling, but nope. Exit velocity is good but not elite, he rarely goes out of the strike zone, above-average contact rate in the zone, and not so many pulled fly balls that you would expect a big short porch boost for the lefty swinger. The numbers say his first base defense is average-ish. The eye test says he’s really good. He has a knack for highlight reel scoops. The downside is Wade needs a platoon partner: .207/.299/.270 (66 wRC+) vs. LHP in his career. 

Next season is Wade’s final year of team control and his arbitration number is going to be $6M or so, so he’s extremely affordable. What does one year of a lefty platoon first baseman cost on the trade market? The Anthony Rizzo trade could work as a reference point. The Yankees traded a top 10 team prospect (Kevin Alcántara) and an injured top 20-ish prospect (Alex Vizcaino) for Rizzo, though a) Rizzo had a much greater track record than Wade, and b) the Cubs ate Rizzo’s salary, which upped the prospect cost.

The Yankees will need a first baseman next season – they can’t bring back Rizzo, can they? – and Wade makes sense as a one-year stopgap. He’s on the heavy side of the platoon, he gets on base a lot and can step into the leadoff spot, he can handle the position defensively, he won’t cost much money and shouldn’t cost a ton in prospects. I’m sure we’ll circle back and discuss Wade again once we see what the Giants do with Zaidi and the front office, and once the offseason begins for real.

Matt asks: This one has been bugging me for a while. Every year, stats come out like: of the XX players who qualify for the batting title, this player ranks YY. The "XX" number always seems way too low, like in the 130-150 range of players league-wide qualifying for the batting title. Basically 4-5 per team. Then a stat was swirling around about Anthony Volpe ranking really low among the 153 players in Yankee history to amass 1200+ plate appearances. That one blew my mind. In over 100 years, there have only been 153 players who had what basically amounts to 2 seasons worth of plate appearances? Anyway, this might be more of an observation than a question, but do you have any thoughts on why these numbers seem so low?

Right now 132 players have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title (3.1 plate appearances per team game). That's 4.4 players per team and I dunno, that seems right to me? Think about all the platoons, all the injuries, all the rookies called up at midseason after their service time is manipulated, all the roster spots that are unsettled and a revolving door, etc. Four or five qualified hitters per team seems right to me. (The Yankees have five: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo, and Anthony Volpe.)

As for the Yankees having 153 players with 1,200 plate appearances in their history, that is on the low side. The franchise came into existence in 1903, first as the Highlanders (1903-12) and then as the Yankees (since 1913). Beginning in 1903, those 153 players are the second fewest among the 16 pre-expansion franchises. Only the Cubs have fewer. They’re at 149. The Cardinals lead the way with 180. The average is 166 players with 1,200 PA.

The Yankees have the second fewest players with 1,200 PA among the 16 pre-expansion franchises but they also have by frickin’ far the most players with 5,000 PA. Here’s the list:

1. Yankees: 33 players with 5,000 PA
2. Senators/Twins: 24
3. Phillies: 21
4. Several teams tied with 20

The low number of players with 1,200 PA is tied to the large number of players with 5,000 PA, at least to some extent. Think about it. Derek Jeter is the franchise leader with 12,602 PA. That’s 21 years (!) of plate appearances. More than two decades of plate appearances that didn’t go to anyone else. 

Then there’s Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Don Mattingly, Willie Randolph, Babe Ruth, Bernie Williams, etc. All the all-time great Yankees who spent so many years in pinstripes, and prevented the plate appearances from getting spread around to others. This may not be the reason the Yankees have relatively few players with 1,200 PA, but it has to be a reason, right? Has to be.

While I have it up in front of me, would you believe Volpe already has more plate appearances as a Yankee than Miguel Andujar, Steve Balboni, Kyle Higashioka, Tim Raines, Austin Romine, Fred Stanley, and Wayne Tolleson, among many others? I’m not sure if I’m surprised Volpe already has that many plate appearances, or those other guys had that few.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)