August 16th, 2024: Judge, Soto, Wells, Warren, Peraza, Mailbag

Old Timers’ Day is next Saturday, Aug. 24th, and Alex Rodriguez will be there. The Yankees announced the list of attendees earlier this week and A-Rod will be on hand for the 15th anniversary celebration of the 2009 World Series. It will be his first Old Timers event. Would’ve been kinda silly to celebrate the 2009 title without the guy who hit .365/.500/.808 (224 wRC+) that postseason, no? A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia will also make their Old Timers’ Day debut. Among the 2009 Yankees who will not be at Old Timers’ Day: Melky Cabrera, Robbie Canó, Joba Chamberlain, Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, and Mark Teixeira. I’m guessing they were all invited (Hughes was invited in 2020 lol) and just couldn’t make it. Too bad. Also, there will be no Old Timers’ Game. They’re doing the Q&A session again. I look forward to A-Rod saying something awkward. Here now is today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. We got a rare two-base sac fly Wednesday night (there's usually only 1-2 a year league-wide). Oswaldo Cabrera scored from second on Alex Verdugo’s sac fly when Dominic Fletcher fell down after making the catch (video). It was the first time a Yankee scored from second on a sac fly since Jorge Posada on Aug. 19th, 2000. Ron Gant made the catch, thought it was the final out of the inning, and hesitated to throw the ball in (video). 

"No excuse. I thought that was the third out. If (center fielder Darin Erstad) hadn't yelled at me to make a throw, I'd still be holding the ball,” Gant said (via James Smyth). Fun fact: The Yankees had three sac flies that inning, all hit to Gant. He misplayed a fly ball earlier in the inning and it was scored a sac fly and an error with no out recorded. A two-base sac fly as part of a three sac fly inning. Talk about weird baseball. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

300 for Judge

No player in baseball history reached 300 home runs in fewer games or fewer at-bats than Aaron Judge, who hit No. 300 on Wednesday night (video). He hit it in his 955th game and in his 3,431st at-bat. The previous records were held by Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner (1,087 games) and literally Babe Ruth (3,831 at-bats). Judge didn’t just get there in the fewest games and fewest at-bats. He obliterated those records.

“Those are some guys that have done a lot of great things in this game,” Judge told Bryan Hoch about breaking Kiner’s and Ruth's records. “You throw around a lot of those names to even people that don’t know baseball, and they know who they are. It’s a special group to be in. It’s just an honor to be in the same category as them, and mentioned in the same sentence.”

No. 300 was one of those home runs that shows why Judge is such a special hitter. It was 94.2 mph two-seamer off the plate and running inside, and yet this 6-foot-7 mountain of a man pulled his hands in and hit a 110.1 mph line drive into the bullpen. Rhys Hoskins, Francisco Lindor, and Adley Rutschman haven’t hit a ball 110.1 mph this season. Judge did it despite not being able to extend his arms. This is the kinda thing that separates a great power hitter from an all-time great all-around hitter:

"It's a great achievement. I've been in the game a little while now, I guess. We still got a long way to go,” Judge told Gary Phillips. “But like I said a couple days ago, I was hoping it would come in a win, and it came in a big win for us where we were kind of down for a little bit and couldn't get really much going. So I was just excited that it was there in a big moment."

Perhaps the most amazing thing about Judge’s 300th homer is not the homer itself, or the fact he got there so quickly. It’s that the White Sox intentionally walked Juan Soto to get to Judge. I understand Soto hit three home runs Tuesday and hit a home run in his first at-bat Wednesday, but intentionally walking any hitter, even one as good as Soto, to get to Judge is crazypants. Sure enough, it backfired on the ChiSox.

“It’s just pick your poison. I'm not trying to get to Judge,” White Sox interim manager Grady Sizemore told Hoch. “I've got a base open. (Soto) had four homers on us. I guess there is no solution or easy way out of that jam. Soto has definitely been the hotter of those two bats, even though Judge has been hot too.”

There were runners on first and second when Judge came to the plate and I feel like, if you’re going to put Soto on intentionally, then you have to commit to the bit and intentionally walk Judge to load the bases as well. That creates the force at any base, yadda yadda yadda. Of course, Austin Wells hit back-to-back homers with Judge, so maybe it didn’t matter. Still, intentionally walking someone to get to Judge? lmao

“You guys all saw how he was swinging the bat this week,” Judge, who downplays every one of his accomplishments, told Chris Kirschner about Soto being intentionally walked. “Guy had three homers yesterday. Homer to start the game today. You know, it’s why wouldn’t you?”

Conor Foley did the research and saved me the trouble: Only once before was a hitter intentionally walked in front of Judge. The Royals and Matt Strahm intentionally walked Chase Headley in the 13th inning with a runner on third and one out to set up the double play on Aug. 31st, 2016. It was Judge's 16th career game. He struck out and Strahm stranded the runner at third, though the Yankees had taken the lead earlier in the inning and went on to win the game.

Judge did not play his first full MLB season until age 25, yet his 300 home runs are 62nd all-time through the age 32 season. He has more homers through age 32 than Hall of Famers Cal Ripken Jr. (297), David Ortiz (289), Willie Stargell (277), and Carl Yastrzemski (269), among many others. I mean, getting to 300 homers in 400 – 400! – fewer at-bats than anyone else is hard to fathom. That’s absurd.

Also, Judge is going to start passing some heavy hitters on the franchise home run list over the next year or so. He’s currently seventh in Yankees history in homers. Judge could be as high as fourth by the end of 2025. Look at these names:

1. Babe Ruth: 659
2. Mickey Mantle: 536
3. Lou Gehrig: 493
4. Joe DiMaggio: 361
5. Yogi Berra: 358
6. Alex Rodriguez: 351
7. Aaron Judge: 300

Judge lost big chunks of time to injury in 2018, 2019, and 2023, plus 2020 was a shortened season. It’s a shame. Are we talking about him hitting No. 400 instead of No. 300 right now with good health? Yeah, it’s very possible. As it stands, 300 is really impressive. Just over 23,000 men have played Major League Baseball, roughly half the capacity of Yankee Stadium, and only 161 have hit 300 home runs.

No. 300 was inevitable. Judge was gonna get there eventually. The question now is, how high can Judge go? Only 19 players have hit 200 home runs after age 32, and they’re basically the 17 greatest hitters ever, and also Andrés Galarraga and Raúl Ibañez. Judge is a historically great power hitter. He has the ability to be the 20th to hit 200 homers after 32. It’ll come down to health. Congrats, Judgie. Here’s to 300 more.

“I hope he breaks the home run record,” Soto told Hoch. “Why not? I think he's the guy who can literally break the record. He's been showing up all the time. I hope he has the health to do it. I'm going to enjoy this as much as I can too.”

(Real ones know Judge actually hit his 301st career homer Wednesday. Read the first mailbag question.)

Judge’s pace

One more quick thing on Judge. With 40 games to play, Judge is on pace for 96 extra-base hits and 400 total bases. Really 399.7 total bases, but he has a legit chance at the 30th 400 total base season in history, and only the eighth in the Expansion Era (since 1961). A hundred extra-base hits is within reach too. That has been done 15 times in history, and only six times in the Expansion Era.

Also, Judge has 43 home runs and 102 walks in 122 team games. Through 122 team games in 2022, he had 46 home runs and 69 walks. He’s off his 2022 pace by three homers, but has 33 (!) more walks. The intentional walks are starting to get silly (Judge has been intentionally walked three times with the bases empty the last two weeks) and the walks will cut into his power totals. Still, Judge has a real chance at 63 homers, 100 extra-base hits, and 400 total bases. That would be ridiculous. I hope it happens.

Juan of Juan

We’re at the point where the question is not can the Yankees afford to re-sign Soto (of course they can), but rather can they afford not to? The answer is no. After that hideous loss Monday, the Great Juan put the offense on his back Tuesday and clubbed three home runs (video). Two homers to left, one to right, two off a righty, one off a lefty, one off a sinker, one off a four-seamer, one off a cutter. He drove in all four of his team’s runs.

“That’s who he is. That’s why he’s the greatest hitter in the game,” Judge told Hoch after Tuesday’s win.

Soto had a chance at a four-homer game – he was the first Yankee to take an at-bat with a chance to hit a fourth home run since Gary Sánchez on April 7th, 2019 (Gary flew out) – but alas, he walked in the top of the ninth inning. He was definitely going for a fourth homer too. Soto took a big swing in a 3-0 count, but Jared Shuster threw him a 3-0 slider (!), and Juan swung through it. The smile says it all:

Judge is the best hitter in baseball, but Soto is right there with him. He went deep in his first at-bat Wednesday as well and has hit six home runs in his last four games (six homers and three swings and misses!). Soto took a .307/.438/.615 (192 wRC+) line into Thursday’s off-day. He ranks fifth in AVG, second in OBP, third in SLG, and second in wRC+ among qualified hitters. His 34 homers are one shy of the career high he set last season. The Yankees have 40 games remaining.

When Judge was chasing 62 home runs in 2022, every once in a while I’d put together a silly leaderboard comparing his power output to mere mortals (here’s an example). At one point his home run total against righties only would have still been the highest home run total in the league. Let’s have some fun and do that with Soto now. The best hitters in baseball:

1. Aaron Judge: 219 wRC+
2. Juan Soto with RISP: 215 wRC+
3. Juan Soto on the road: 200 wRC+
4. Juan Soto vs. RHP: 196 wRC+
5. Juan Soto overall: 192 wRC+
6. Juan Soto vs. LHP: 184 wRC+
7. Juan Soto at home: 183 wRC+
8. Bobby Witt Jr.: 173 wRC+
9. Shohei Ohtani: 172 wRC+
10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 167 wRC+

Six different versions of Soto are among the seven best hitters in baseball. He’s a fun one: Soto is 11-for-29 with more extra-base hits (four) than strikeouts (three) against lefties with runners in scoring position. It’s a .379/.474/.690 (212 wRC+) batting line in those situations. Just outrageous production. You can slice and dice this guy any way you want, and he still comes out as one of the best hitters in the game.

Very few hitters have the talent to post a 190 wRC+ in a full season. Soto is one of them, and if he finishes with a 190 wRC+ this year, he would be the 17th player to do it in a non-strike, non-pandemic season in the Expansion Era. Six others have done it in the 2000s: Barry Bonds (2001-04), Jason Giambi (2001), Miguel Cabrera (2013), Bryce Harper (2015), and Judge (2022). (Soto did it in 2020 pandemic season.)

Soto may be only the second best hitter on his own team, but he is having a historic season, truly. The guy is a brilliant talent – Soto does the impossible and makes taking walks exciting – and he needs to spend the rest of his career in pinstripes. Letting this guy get away would be a colossal, franchise-altering mistake. For now, Soto is having one of the greatest individual seasons in Yankees history. He’s somehow exceeded expectations.

“Look, we went and got him and paid a big price to bring him here, because we know what a special player he is. We’ve seen every bit of that, and probably more,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “… I feel like in watching Juan, I’m watching one of the best seasons I’ve ever seen. Then I get to watch Aaron right behind him. I try not to take it for granted. I just know that is one tough at-bat, every single day.”

Wells continues to rise to the occasion

Judge’s 300th homer and Soto’s intentional walk/all-around greatness got the headlines Wednesday, but it was Wells who gave the Yankees the lead with a two-out, two-strike, two-run single in the seventh (video). He hit back-to-back homers with Judge later in the game (video). Wells is up to .257/.347/.426 (119 wRC+) overall, including .273/.350/.460 (128 wRC+) since May 1st and .291/.382/.503 (149 wRC+) since June 1st.

“I think this is what he is and it just took him a minute to get it. And now he’s getting regular, everyday at-bats. The experience he’s gained up here. He’s got a little bit settled,” Boone told Phillip Martinez about Wells last week. “Being a catcher in the Major Leagues is not an easy thing to do. And when you’re a rookie catcher and coming into a veteran-laden staff – you have to handle that side of the ball first and he’s been so committed to that side of the ball – maybe it took a minute for the offense to catch up a little bit, but it certainly has.”

Here is the FanGraphs rookie WAR leaderboard entering play Thursday. Again, FanGraphs WAR includes framing:

1. Jackson Merrill: +3.4 fWAR
2. Tyler Fitzgerald: +3.1 fWAR
3. Colton Cowser: +3.0 fWAR (402 PA)
4. Austin Wells: +3.0 fWAR (292 PA)
5. Several tied at +2.6 fWAR, including Paul Skenes (the top rookie pitcher)

Wells is tied with Cowser for the top spot among AL rookies despite significantly less playing time, and he is within shouting distance of the top spot among all rookies (Merrill has been unbelievable lately though). Since Judge in 2017, only Miguel Andujar has had a better season among Yankees rookies than Wells, according to FanGraphs WAR. Miggy Missiles was at +2.9 fWAR in 2018.

In a very short period of time Wells has gone from rookie catcher trying to find his footing in the big leagues to an indispensable piece. He’s the regular cleanup hitter now . He is tasked with making other teams pay when they avoid Soto and Judge, and Wells is answering the bell. I mean, he’s hitting .368/.423/.574 (178 wRC+) as the No. 4 hitter. The season isn’t over and this game is hard to predict. It sure looks like the Yankees have found a long-term No. 1 catcher though. 

Warren and Peraza up, De Los Santos DFAed

The Yankees did not have an update on Jazz Chisholm Jr. on Wednesday – “We’re waiting for people to still weigh in on it today,” Boone told Phillips – and UCL stuff usually takes a few days, so no update wasn’t the most surprising thing in the world. The Yankees did put Chisholm on the injured list though. Every once in a while I get something right and Wednesday’s roster moves were exactly as I laid out Tuesday: 

• Chisholm to the 10-day injured list. They’re calling a left elbow sprain, officially.

• Will Warren called up. Jazz’s injury allowed the Yankees to get around the 15-day rule.

• Oswald Peraza called up. “(He’ll play) especially against lefties,” Boone told Bradley Locker.

• Enyel De Los Santos DFAed. The Yankees had to get back down to 13 pitchers.

De Los Santos allowed 10 runs and 19 baserunners in 6.2 innings with the Yankees after coming over from the Padres at the trade deadline. The Yankees didn’t give up much to get him – the case can be made they got the two best players in that three-player trade – but sheesh. Bad look to have to cut a deadline pickup this quickly. De Los Santos can elect free agency if he clears waivers. He’s very likely a goner.

"Tough call,” Boone told Phillips about DFAing De Los Santos. “Feel like he's better than certainly the last couple results he's had."

Warren got the spot start Wednesday, which was necessitated by Saturday’s doubleheader, and he pitched well. Barry Bonds I mean Gavin Sheets got him for a solo homer, then he got burned by Trent Grisham misreading a ball in center and DJ LeMahieu having the range of a 450-year-old redwood, but otherwise Warren pitched well: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HR (video). Good spot start, Will.

The Yankees sent Warren down after Wednesday’s game and they’ll call someone up Friday to get back to an eight-man bullpen. Yoendrys Gómez lines up to pitch Friday and can provide length. Nick Burdi and Ron Marinaccio are outside the 15-day waiting period, so they're available. Boone talked up Scott Effross the other day. The De Los Santos DFA opened a 40-man spot too. The Yankees have options and roster flexibility.

“He’s been throwing the ball better, so that’s been encouraging,” Boone told Phillips about Effross. “And I feel like we’re getting some more guys in the mix to have good options. So yeah, Scotty’s put together some good outings here in a row. So he’s definitely in the mix and in consideration.”

As for Peraza, this might only be a temporary call up. The recently DFAed Amed Rosario will hit waivers very soon (if he hasn’t already) and the Yankees, who tried to sign Rosario over the winter, could claim him. They’re near the back of the waiver line though, so he might not get to them. Even if the Yankees don’t get Rosario, they have Jon Berti working his way back from a calf strain. He’ll return eventually.

For now, Peraza is on the roster, and the current personnel allows for straightforward platoons on the infield corners: Ben Rice/Cabrera vs. RHP and LeMahieu/Peraza vs. LHP. Peraza hit .302/.388/.535 (138 wRC+) with seven homers in his last 34 games with Triple-A Scranton. Even if this is only a short-term call up, I hope Peraza carries that up to the big leagues. Would be neat.

“It’s great to be back here with this ballclub,” Peraza told Locker on Wednesday. “I’ve been working very hard in Triple-A and waiting for the opportunity. Just want to help any way possible, any way I can contribute. Excited about it.”

Miscellany

Shoutout to Nestor Cortes. Those were seven badly needed innings Tuesday. The White Sox stink, but the Yankees needed a good start and a lot of innings no matter the opponent, and Cortes delivered: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K (video). Nestor threw 18% changeups, easily his most this season (season rate: 8%), and his most ever in a big league start. We’ll see if that’s the start of a trend, or was just a function of facing a lineup with seven righties/switch-hitters … Nice little full circle moment Tuesday when Jake Cousins, who the Yankees got from the White Sox in a cash trade in April, stranded the bases loaded to close out a win over those White Sox. And thank you Michael Tonkin for three stress-free innings Wednesday. I know the score was lopsided, but even big leads have been an adventure lately. The bullpen is not really as bad as it’s been the last two weeks or so (right?). Hopefully this is the start of a turnaround  … And finally, I forgot to mention this Tuesday: Anthony Volpe drew two walks against lefty Ky Bush on Monday. They were his first walks in 80 plate appearances (since July 21st). Volpe drew another walk Tuesday, so that’s three walks in his last three games after three walks in his previous 28 games. Watching his at-bats, it seems like the walks were a product of ChiSox pitching, not Volpe being more patient. I hope I’m wrong, but you know how it goes with Tony Fox.

Injury updates

Clarke Schmidt (lat) threw his live BP as scheduled Wednesday. All went well and it sounds like he’s going to do that again before starting a rehab assignment. Cody Poteet (triceps) was scheduled to throw his live BP on Thursday … Anthony Rizzo (arm) has not yet been cleared to take the next step with his rehab. His latest scans showed the fracture is healing, though it’s not all the way there yet. Rizzo is able to hit against live pitching, but I guess he can’t graduate to games and uncontrolled situations, for lack of a better term. Today is the first day Rizzo is eligible to be activated off the 60-day injured list … Jose Trevino (quad) went 2-for-7 in two Double-A rehab games Tuesday and Wednesday. He caught five innings Tuesday and seven innings Wednesday, and the Yankees activated him off the injured list during the off-day Thursday. Carlos Narváez was sent down in a corresponding move (duh). Boone indicated Wells will continue to play a lot when Trevino returns. I don't think we're going to see the 50/50 split again … Lou Trivino (elbow) is back. He threw 20 pitches and allowed a run in an inning for Double-A Somerset on Wednesday. He’s gonna need a bunch of rehab appearances given the long layoff, but he is on the road back … Chase Hampton was placed on the Double-A injured list earlier this week. It’s a groin injury, not his arm. Hampton’s made seven starts this season and has topped out at 3.2 innings and 57 pitches … Brock Selvidge (biceps) was transferred to the Double-A 60-day injured list. He hasn’t pitched since July 6th, but he wasn’t put on the injured list until July 22nd, so he can’t return until Sept. 20th. Somerset’s season ends Sept. 15th, so yeah, Selvidge is done for the year … Kevin Stevens, a breakout reliever I wrote about last week, was also placed on the Double-A 60-day injured list earlier this week. Not sure what’s wrong with him, but the guy’s had three UCL tears in his career. Pitching prospects, eh? They’ll break your heart.

Up next

The road trip wraps up with three games against the Tigers. Here are the pitching matchups:

• Friday at Tigers: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. TBA (6:40pm ET on YES)

• Saturday at Tigers: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Keider Montero (1pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Sunday at Tigers: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (7pm ET on ESPN)

• Monday: off-day

As I write this Thursday afternoon, the Tigers have not yet announced their Friday starter. Detroit has two (2) starting pitchers at the moment: Montero and Skubal. They’ve been using openers and bullpen games the other three days for a few weeks now. Yuck. Lefty Tyler Holton has opened a bunch of games, and with Verdugo and Soto hitting 1-2, Holton seems like a candidate to start Friday. We’ll see.

Sunday is the Little League Classic in Williamsport. It’s the first time the Yankees have ever played in the event, which has taken place annually since 2017 (excluding 2020). No, they do not play in a Little League stadium. They play at Bowman Field, home of the Williamsport Crosscutters. The Crosscutters used to be an NY-Penn League team. When the short season leagues went away a few years ago, they became an MLB Draft League team.

ESPN’s broadcasts are interviews with a side of baseball these days, so we’re going to get segments with Little Leaguers and players meeting the kids and all that. Mike Mussina is from that neck of the woods and sometimes shows up to the Little League Classic, so maybe we’ll see him this weekend. Thankfully, this is the last time the Yankees will be on Sunday Night Baseball this season. Hooray for that.

Also, this weekend is Players Weekend. First one since 2019. There will be no special uniforms or nicknames though. Instead, the players will have their number on the side of their cap …

… and there will be features at the stadium and on the broadcast highlighting the players’ personalities, their hobbies, their charitable work, etc. I hope YES does something cool with it Friday and Saturday. You know ESPN is going to beat us over the head with something Sunday night. Three games against a 59-63 Tigers team. Don’t let me down, Yankees.

(Kiley McDaniel says the Tigers are calling up Trey Sweeney. The Yankees selected Sweeney in the first round in 2021, traded him to the Dodgers for Victor González and Jorbit Vivas this past offseason, then the Dodgers traded him to the Tigers as part of the Jack Flaherty deal. He's hit .267/.345/.450 (97 wRC+) with a 26.7 K% in Triple-A this year.)

2. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Jesse Rogers, MLB is mulling over a rule change that would require starting pitchers to go at least six innings. There would be exceptions for certain conditions like injury, elevated pitch counts, etc. Starting pitchers are the closest thing MLB has to a main character and I would love to see them return to prominence. These five-inning, two-run, 80-pitch starts are for the birds. I understand the strategy and all that. I just don't find a parade of relievers enjoyable to watch. I have no idea if this six-inning minimum rule is the way to return the game to starting pitchers – this feels like a starting point for negotiations with the MLBPA more than a hard and fast “this is what we want” proposal from MLB – but I do appreciate the league trying to figure out a way to do it. As I’ve gotten older, the aesthetic component of baseball has become more important to me, and I don’t find openers and bullpen games and short starts particularly enjoyable. I long for the days of 7-8 inning starts and the 235-inning workhorse.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Matt asks: Reports have come out that if the Yankees had parted ways with a Top-100 prospect, Jones or Hampton, they could’ve gotten Blake Snell (maybe more could have been had too? Chapman?) from the Giants. Would you have made that trade? Pitching seems scary right now. 

MLB Pipeline released their updated top 100 prospects list earlier this week and neither Chase Hampton nor Spencer Jones made it. Jasson Domínguez (No. 17) was the only Yankee. Jones was No. 84 before the season and Hampton was No. 92, so it wasn’t a big fall out of the top 100 for either guy, but they are off the list. At least one outlet no longer considers those two top 100 prospects.

Anyway, yes, I absolutely would have traded Hampton or Jones for rental Snell. I would have traded either guy for one year of Corbin Burnes in the offseason, and trading them for a half-season of Snell is along the same lines. You’re getting a top tier starter for a postseason run. Snell had some groin trouble earlier this year and the 3.91 ERA isn’t amazing, but the under-the-hood stuff is again great …

… and he’s on one of his second half runs. Since coming off the injured list on July 9th: 0.99 ERA (2.03 FIP) with a 37.7 K% and a .191 xwOBA in seven starts (6.5 innings per start). Snell threw a no-hitter on Aug. 2nd and took a no-hitter into the seventh on Aug. 12th. He's a chore to watch because of the walks, high pitch counts, and slow pace, but when Snell is on, he’s as good as any pitcher in the game. Given the very tight AL East race, isn’t Hampton or Jones worth it? Snell would have changed the division outlook completely.

Jon Heyman says the Yankees were worried about Snell’s $30M player option and I get that, especially with Juan Soto’s free agency looming, but the only way Snell picks that up is a major injury between now and the end of the season. At some point you have to shoot your shot, and your one guaranteed year with Soto seems like a good time to do it. I would’ve done Hampton or Jones for Snell in a heartbeat. I would have done it even if their prospect stock was at its pre-2024 levels.

Dan asks: I was looking at Judge's fangraph the other day and I was surprised to see that Judge's  defensive metrics weren't the best. His UZR and UZR/150 are listed as -0.5 and -15.3, respectively, his RngR is -0.2, and his FRV is 1 (so at least that's positive). Fangraphs lists his OAA as 0, but Baseball Savant lists it as -3. I know defensive metrics can sometimes be weird, but I feel like those numbers don't match the eye test. Judge may not be the world's best CFer, but I've thought he's done a pretty solid job defensively in center. I feel like he usually takes pretty good routes to balls and makes the plays he's supposed to, as well as makes some tough plays. He's not the fastest player, so maybe that is affecting the metrics. What's your thoughts on this?

I think Aaron Judge has been fine in center. Not amazing, not a disaster. Just fine. He’s at -6 DRS and -4 OAA, and Statcast gives him an 88% catch success rate compared to a 90% estimated success rate based on exit velocity, launch angle, and all that. The components of DRS and OAA ding Judge for range, particularly coming in on the ball and going toward right field. His arm grades out well (duh).

The eye test says Judge is fine, and I would’ve guessed he graded out closer to league average (i.e. +0 DRS and +0 OAA) than -6 DRS and -4 OAA. Even at -6 DRS and -4 OAA, Judge isn’t killing the Yankees out there, and of course the bat more than makes up for it. He can’t stay in center long-term. It’s a young player’s position and he’s going to slow down. If the Yankees re-sign Juan Soto, they’ll have to figure out a better defensive alignment. For this one season, Judge has been fine in center. You can live with this.

Harrison asks: Soto is an easy call. If free agency started today, would you make Gleyber a qualifying offer? If not, what would he have to do between now and the end of the season to get there? If yes, how bad would he have to continue to be to lose the QO?

I would give him the qualifying offer, though I’m a Gleyber Torres apologist and I’m also not the one writing the checks. Gleyber has not been good this year – he's been better lately, though his recent production has been all singles and walks (zero extra-base hits in his last 13 games) – but he’ll play 2025 at age 28 and he has a strong track record. I am also unenthused with the options to replace Torres at second base, both internally (Caleb Durbin, Oswald Peraza, Jorbit Vivas, etc.) and externally (uh, Amed Rosario?).

If Gleyber were on any other team, I feel like we’d all be eyeing him as a potential bounceback candidate for a one-year contract this winter. Prime age, good track record, has performed in a demanding market, etc. It would be a big salary – the qualifying offer projects to be around $22M this winter – but the Yankees can afford a big one-year contract even if they like to pretend they can’t. I would make Torres the qualifying offer and I think he would decline it even with the year he’s had.

As for the Yankees, I don’t think there’s any chance they give Torres the qualifying offer, or give anyone except Juan Soto the qualifying offer. Alex Verdugo is an easy no – does he get more than Harrison Bader's contract with the Mets (one year, $10M?) – and so is Clay Holmes. Even the Terminator version of Holmes wouldn’t get the qualifying offer, I don’t think. That’s a huge one-year salary for a reliever. Again, it is the Yankees and they can afford it, but being able to afford it and it being a smart use of money aren’t the same thing. 

I assume the Yankees won’t do anything to jeopardize their efforts to re-sign Soto, such as Torres eating up a big chunk of payroll if he accepts the qualifying offer. I think they value the payroll flexibility more than a potential compensation draft pick after the fourth round. They kinda sorta did this two offseasons ago, when they didn’t make Jameson Taillon the qualifying offer because they wanted to keep payroll clear for Aaron Judge’s new contract. Soto is a no-brainer. He’s getting the qualifying offer. And I think he’ll be the only Yankee to get it.

David asks: You mentioned "This team excels at playing down to its opponent" in your last column. While I tend to somewhat agree, what about opponents playing up? John Flaherty mentioned in the broadcast that when he played for the really bad Devil Rays teams, there was always additional energy when they played the Yankees. While good teams "should" beat the teams they're supposed to, do you think bad teams playing "the big bad Yankees" would result in them playing up? Or a little of both?

Flaherty lived it, so I’m not going to say he’s wrong, plus I believe it. Opponents do get up to play the Yankees. I also don’t like using that excuse for a loss like Monday's because it ignores talent. The Yankees are the most talented team on the field most nights. Match the other team’s effort and preparation, and things will work out for the Yankees more often than not. It’s a nice narrative, but digging deep and trying your hardest is only gonna help so much. The Yankees are careless and sloppy, have been for years, and that closes the talent gap to some extent, sometimes enough to cost them games. I put this on the Yankees playing down to their opponents. You should expect the other team’s best effort every night anyway.

Paul asks: Have overall MLB pitches per plate appearance gone up in the last 20ish years? It feels like 100 pitches doesn't get you what it used to.

Pitch count data goes back to 1988 and yes, pitches per plate appearance has steadily gone up since then. Here’s a graph:

The ups and downs prior to 1999 have to do with the reliability of pitch count data, not hitters changing their approaches around the league. Beginning in 1999, it was a steady increase up to about 2016, and it’s more or less leveled out since then. Just to put numbers on it: 3.76 P/PA in 2000, 3.74 P/PA in 2005, 3.83 P/PA in 2010, 3.82 P/PA in 2015, 3.96 P/PA in 2020, and 3.88 P/PA in 2024.

The difference between 2000 and 2024 is one extra pitch every eight plate appearances or so, or about five extra pitches per game (on average there’s 38 plate appearances per team per game). I agree with Paul that it feels like 100 pitches doesn’t get you as deep into the game as it once did, though that may just be a 2024 Yankees thing. The P/PA increase from 2020-24 is small in the grand scheme of things.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)