August 6th, 2024: Volpe, Judge, Leiter, Torres, Prospects, 2024 Draft

Got a few (free) links to pass along. First, Michael Baumann wrote about the historic greatness of the Aaron Judge/Juan Soto duo (and the Yankees being so reliant on them). Second, Mike Petriello wrote about Soto getting no help from the short porch (because he doesn’t need it). And third, Davy Andrews wrote about the gap between Judge and every other hitter in baseball. Judge is hitting better against actual pitchers than the league hits against position player pitchers. He is 1 of 1. Here now is today’s post.

1. A new version of Volpe. Five homers in 15 games since the All-Star break for Anthony Volpe, who hit zero home runs in the 53 games immediately prior to the break. He’s hitting .359/.369/.656 (188 wRC+) in 15 second half games, and, along with the emergent Austin Wells and newly acquired Jazz Chisholm Jr., has helped lengthen the lineup. Juan Soto and Aaron Judge actually have support now! 

"The guy has an ability to make adjustments," Aaron Boone said about Volpe’s second half heater (video). "(He got off to) a great start, went through his share of struggles for several weeks. But I feel like the last two weeks, getting in a better position to put good swings on balls in the strike zone. I definitely like where Anthony's at right now."

Volpe told Chris Kirschner he didn’t make any changes to his approach during the All-Star break, and while I don’t want to call him a liar, clearly something has changed. This hot streak isn't just a little BABIP luck. No longer is Volpe selling out for contact and trying to slap singles to right field. He’s swinging harder and he’s pulling the ball more often.

The 75 mph bat speed threshold is “where you see per-swing production reach league-average, with gains then accruing as swing speed increases,” per the Statcast folks. Volpe took 15 75+ mph swings in the first half. He already has seven in the second half. Also, Volpe pulled 24 fly balls and line drives in the first half. He’s already pulled seven in the second half. He’s swinging harder and he’s pulling the ball more.

Is it possible to do that – swing harder! pull the ball more! – without a change in approach? Maybe, and it doesn’t really matter what Volpe says. He is swinging harder, he is pulling the ball more, he is making harder contact. Whatever the reason, it’s happening, and has led to more home runs and more production in general. Volpe swung a limp bat for most of the first half. Now he’s legit driving the ball. This is new.

Volpe still refuses to walk – zero walks in his last 56 plate appearances and only four walks in his last 151 plate appearances (2.6%) – and that we can put on the back burner. Before worrying about walks, the kid has to figure out what kinda hitter he is. Is he a pull power guy (that’s what he was his entire pro career prior to 2024)? Is he an opposite field singles guy? A blend of the two? We still don’t know.

The pull power version of Volpe has been the most successful and is probably the best bet long-term. He doesn’t have the elite contact skills of a Luis Arraez or a Steven Kwan to be BABIP reliant. We’ve seen Volpe get hot in the past (really, really hot) and it never lasted more than a few weeks, so I’m not going to say Volpe has figured it out. I’m just noting this change in approach, even if Volpe says it hasn’t changed.

“I like where our lineup’s at. Anthony being sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, depending on who’s in the lineup. Especially with the way he’s going now, he adds length,” Boone told Dan Martin when asked about moving Volpe back to leadoff. “... We moved him up there a little bit out of necessity. He was swinging the bat well and we had a couple guys that were struggling in that spot. I’m hoping we remain where we’re at right now with construction.”

2. Weekend thoughts. I love Joe Girardi in the YES booth and I’m glad he’s doing more games now than he was earlier this year. Doyle Alexander was Sunday’s Name That Yankee and Michael Kay said (paraphrasing) “Alexander was great for the Tigers after the trade, but John Smoltz went to the Hall of Fame and helped the Braves win a few World Series,” then Girardi hit him with “correction, they won one World Series.” Delightful. Also, it was cool to hear Girardi confirm that yes, the manager does still manage the game from his office after he’s been ejected. I’ve always assumed that’s the case, and now we know for certain. Here now are a few thoughts on the Blue Jays series.

The Judge Treatment

Something amazing happened Saturday. Aaron Judge hit his 41st homer and drove in his 102nd and 103rd runs in his team’s 112th game, which is wild. Guys have won MVP with 41 homers and 103 RBI, and Judge got there on Aug. 3rd. That’s not the amazing thing I’m talking about though. That’s the other amazing thing. In the second inning Saturday, Judge was intentionally walked with the bases empty and two outs.

"I honestly didn't feel like seeing him swing. That was kind of it," Blue Jays manager John Schneider told Jorge Castillo about Saturday’s intentional walk. "He's in a different category I think than anyone else in the league, where he can just flip the script of a game with one swing."

Getting intentionally walked the bases empty isn’t that uncommon. It happens a few times a year, including to Judge last year. On May 31st, the Mariners intentionally walked him with the bases empty and two outs in the ninth inning of a 0-0 game. The next batter, Willie Calhoun, lined out, and Seattle eventually walked it off in the tenth inning. Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani were both intentionally walked with the bases empty last season too.

What is rare is getting intentionally walked with the bases empty that early in the game. It was the second inning! Here are the last five hitters other than Barry Bonds to get intentionally walked with the bases empty in the first five innings of a game (it happened to Bonds a few times from 2000-04):

• Aug. 4th, 2007: Vlad Guerrero Sr. vs. Athletics (third inning)

• June 21st, 2001: Jason Giambi vs. Mariners (fifth inning)

• July 15th, 1998: Mark McGwire vs. Reds (fifth inning)

• May 17th, 1982: Greg Luzinski vs. Rangers (fifth inning)

• April 22nd, 1977: Andre Dawson vs. Giants (fifth inning)

Joe Blanton was so pissed the A’s made him walk Vlad Sr. that he “threw the four intentional balls at 92 mph,” per Mark Simon. Anyway, even if you include Bonds, Judge is the first hitter to get intentionally walked with the bases empty in the first or second inning since Glenn Borgmann against the Angels on Aug. 10th, 1972. That also happened in the second inning. Over 50 years ago! (Borgmann was a light-hitting catcher the Angels walked to get to the pitcher.)

"It's tough. I always want to hit,” Judge told Castillo about the intentional walk. “... Just how early it was in the game (surprised me). It was still pretty close at the time. So I guess with two outs there, I think they were just looking to maybe getting out the next guy. But Wells came up with the big hit so hopefully it doesn't happen again. We'll see."

Judge was intentionally walked three more times Sunday and came around to score after none of them. The Blue Jays put up the four fingers four times this weekend and it worked out all four times. In fact, Judge has been intentionally walked an MLB high 11 times this year, and he’s scored after one of them. It doesn’t matter who hits behind him. Teams are gonna keep walking Judge, and it’s on everyone else to turn those walks into runs. So far, no one has done it.

Should the Yankees flip Judge and Juan Soto in the lineup then? If other teams pitch around Judge, that forces them to pitch to Soto with at least one man on base. Or would flipping Soto and Judge just mean all those intentional walks go to Soto instead? Maybe that’s worth it. As good as Soto is, Judge is better, and if only one of the two will get pitches to hit, I’d rather it be Judge. Flipping Judge and Soto is something to consider if the intentional walks keep coming at this pace.

“It sucks,” Soto told Chris Kirschner about Judge getting intentionally walked so much this weekend. “You want him at the plate. I’m doing my best to put him up and you see them pass him over. It just really makes me mad. I don’t like that. I want them to challenge him and see what he can really do. It is what it is. It’s part of the game. They’re trying to win too, so you respect that.”

Judge went 5-for-9 with two homers over the weekend and is up to .322/.456/.701 (216 wRC+) on the season. Going into Monday, he led baseball in home runs by eight, led in OBP by 19 points, led in SLG by 80 points, and led in wRC+ by 26 points. Judge is on pace for 96 extra-base hits, so he’s off the 100 XBH pace, but he’s also close enough that one great week will put him right back there.

In addition to 100 XBH, there’s another obscure milestone I am now obsessing over: 400 total bases. It has been done 29 times in history and no one has done it since Bonds (411), Luis Gonzalez (419), and Sammy Sosa (425) in 2001. Judge finished with 391 total bases in 2022. Excluding 2020, the MLB leader averaged 366 total bases from 2013-23. Judge has 277 total bases and is on pace for 397. The race is on.

I’ve run out of ways to describe Judge these last three years. I mean, Soto has already tied his career high in WAR (well, this year’s +7.0 WAR is behind 2021’s +7.1 WAR, but close enough) and he’s on pace to have one of the greatest offensive seasons by a Yankee in the last 60 years …

Best seasons by a Yankee in the Expansion Era (since 1961)
1. 2024 Aaron Judge: 216 wRC+
2. 2022 Aaron Judge: 209 wRC+
3. 1961 Mickey Mantle: 196 wRC+
4. 1962 Mickey Mantle: 192 wRC+
5. 2024 Juan Soto: 190 wRC+

… and it feels like Judge is completely overshadowing him. The guy is amazing (so is Soto!) and we didn’t need the Blue Jays to intentionally walk him with the bases empty in the second inning to know that. The Yankees should break out the rubber chickens and hang one out by the retired numbers each time Judge gets walked at home. I’m not even joking. The Giants did it for Bonds. Do it, Yankees.

"We're watching greatness," Aaron Boone told Castillo. "You try not to take that for granted, what you're seeing 99 do. I feel now, for a few years, you hear a lot of the Babe, Mantle, Gehrig, DiMaggio, those kinds of names intertwined with a lot of things he's doing. Try to appreciate every now and then what we have."

The new guy in the bullpen

The Yankees are getting their Ben Cowles/Jack Neely’s worth out of Mark Leiter Jr. He’s been a Yankee for five games, has pitched in four of them, and three appearances were high leverage. In a tie game Sunday he stranded an inherited runner at first base in the ninth and the automatic runner at second in the tenth, including retiring the scorching hot Vlad Guerrero Jr. to start the inning (I couldn’t believe the Yankees were pitching to him, but it worked out).

“I felt more like myself today,” Leiter told Mollie Walker after Sunday’s game. “That’s a role, like when you’re in those high leverage spots, you got to make pitches, and you need to make your best pitches when your backs are against the wall. So just kind of staying calm and knowing that you’re always a pitch away and just one pitch at a time to fight through it.”

I’m pretty sure the Yankees didn’t want to use Leiter on Sunday. Obviously he was available, so it was a “we’d like to say away from him” situation more than a “he’s down today” thing, but if the Yankees had gone into the game with Leiter fully available, I think he would have pitched the eighth instead of Tommy Kahnle, or at least started the ninth after the rain delay rather than Enyel De Los Santos. They only went to Leiter after all the other definitely available guys were used.

Sunday was Leiter’s fourth appearance in six days and fifth appearance in eight days. He was with the Cubs on Tuesday morning, flew from Cincinnati to Philadelphia that afternoon, threw a scoreless tenth inning for the Yankees that night*, then two days later traveled to New York. In the span of a week he pitched for two teams and went from Kansas City to Cincinnati to Philadelphia to New York. It’s a lot. I’m guessing Leiter enjoyed having Monday’s off-day just to catch his breath and stay in one place.

* Leiter told Bryan Hoch that in his first game with the Yankees, he was given a code for a pickoff play through PitchCom, but he didn’t know what it meant so he just threw a pitch.

I understand the temptation to put Leiter in the closer’s role, but I value the swing-and-miss fireman very highly, and I love Leiter for that role because a) he can strike dudes out (duh), and b) he’s effective against lefties and righties, so you don’t have to pick your spots. He can pitch whenever. Leiter was great when pressed into duty Sunday. The Yankees have needed a reliever exactly like him all season.

“He likes the action,” Boone told Walker. “He likes being out there when it counts. Seems to have a really good competitive nature to him. Obviously, the split is a really good pitch … Big reason why we got him is that pitch. I thought (Sunday) was the most crisp it’s been in any of his outings.”

L’affaire de Gleyber

I have no idea whether Gleyber Torres could have gotten to second base on that long single Friday night (video). It was hit hard (110.7 mph) and played pretty cleanly off the wall. I think it would have been a close play at second, but we never got a chance to find out because Torres didn’t run out of the box. He got thrown out trying to score on Anthony Volpe’s double later in the inning to compound the problem (video).

“Maybe (I could have gotten to second base), but who knows,” Torres told Gary Phillips. “I just did the mistake, stayed a little bit at home plate watching the ball. Trying to get on second in that situation would be better because after Volpe hit a double, it was an easy run for us. For the next opportunity, I just make sure to run hard and if it’s a homer, I’ll see after that.”

Boone felt he needed to pull Torres after that, and if the manager thinks he needs to pull a player for a lack of hustle, then do it. But Boone did it with as little conviction as possible. He waited a full inning to pull Torres and initially said it was because he wanted to give Oswaldo Cabrera time to get ready – Boone told Phillips he didn’t want to “ambush” Cabrera by putting him in the game right away – then a day later he took it back and said he didn’t want to ”make complete theater of it,” per Hoch. Was having the conversation on the top step of the dugout for the YES cameras to see not complete theater (video)? Boone’s been in this game his entire life. He knew what he was doing.

After Friday’s game Boone was asked why he pulled Torres when others have stayed in the game under similar circumstances. DJ LeMahieu jogged out a GIDP ball a few weeks ago and Boone defended him. Volpe cost the Yankees a run because he didn’t hustle. Trent Grisham turned a single into a double because he played it so casually in center. Alex Verdugo jogs out grounders with impunity. Josh Donaldson did exactly what Gleyber did how many times? They all stayed in the game, and when asked why Torres was pulled – why he’s being singled out for not hustling – Boone stumbled over his words and said he was done talking about it.

“Everyone’s going to make judgments on this guy, that guy,” Boone told Phillips. “The reality is I have a ton of grace because a lot of people don’t know the whole story on every situation and what (injuries) guys are dealing with. I think it’s one of the more overrated things, defining a player who plays hard or not. It is an important part of it, but we can go back and (ask), ‘Why didn’t you pull on this one?’ The reality is, those guys, including Gleyber, play their asses off. So I don’t have any issue with that. I felt like in this moment, this time, I needed to do this. That’s it. I’ve said everything I want to say and I’ve been pretty clear on it.”

Unless I’m forgetting someone (I don’t think I am, but I might be), Torres is the only player who has been benched or pulled from a game for not hustling in the Boone era. He’s far from the only offender (or repeat offender), but he is the only one who gets pulled. And when Boone did pull him, it took him a full day to explain why he went about it the way he did, and he shut down any questions about why other players haven’t gotten the same treatment. It’s pretty weak. If you feel you need to pull a player, then pull him, and have some conviction about it. The manager is an authority figure. Be authoritative.

Torres is hitting .291/.353/.427 (122 wRC+) in his last 27 games and yes, he’s still making boneheaded mistakes in the field, but those are nothing new. They’ve been part of the Gleyber experience since the day he was called up. If the Yankees have suddenly decided seven years into his career that they can’t put up with them, then that’s a Yankees problem, not a Gleyber problem. They knew the deal. This didn’t sneak up on anyone. Torres should have hustled out of the box on the long single. He earned his benching. And yet he handled the situation in a more mature and more genuine way than his manager.

“(Boone) didn’t like the way I didn’t run to second base in that moment. I think he did the right thing, especially in that moment, and I take it,” Torres told Phillips. “As a professional, you have to take the consequence. Especially in that moment, I don’t have to think too much. I have to run and after I get on second, see what happened. For one second, I thought it was a homer, but unfortunately, it was just a single. I have to get better. And I feel really sorry for whatever I do tonight, especially for the fans and also for my teammates. I’m a human being. I made an error and I feel like whatever I do tonight, I’m going to learn a lot. I just want to compete with my teammates. I want to play great and do 100% for my team.”

Miscellany

Gerrit Cole’s first start back from what the Yankees called “general body soreness” went okay. The first two innings were a real grind – Alejandro Kirk doubled on the seventh pitch after falling behind in the count 0-2, then the bottom of the order ambushed Cole early in the count to push across two runs – but he settled down and pitched into the sixth. We’ve seen flashes of Cy Cole this year but only flashes. He’s got two months to get where he needs to be to help the Yankees get where they want to go … I didn’t love letting Carlos Rodón face Vlad Jr. a third time Saturday, and it did ultimately sully his pitching line – 5.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 HR (video) – but the Yankees won the game, so no big deal. It was Rodón’s third straight really good start. And would you look at this, his fastball is missing bats again:

August is just Saturday’s start, but his 29.7% fastball whiff rate since June 1st is in line with his league-best 28.7% fastball whiff rate with the Giants from 2021-22. This is a product of Rodón mixing his pitches more, specifically throwing more changeups and curveballs. When hitters have to respect non-fastballs, the fastball plays up. The rotation has been shaky the last few weeks. Props to Rodón for making adjustments and providing stability … Marcus Stroman’s battle with Father Time looks like a Twins vs. Yankees series. Seven runs and nine baserunners in 2.2 innings Friday night. His last 10 starts: 6.32 ERA (6.21 FIP) with a .309/.385/.534 opponent’s batting line. He’s averaged 4.7 innings in those 10 starts and has completed five innings only five times. I can’t see the Yankees pulling Stroman from the rotation and giving Will Warren his starts. The earliest he’ll be removed from the rotation is when Clarke Schmidt returns in a few weeks. Stroman getting lit up by the Blue Jays the same night Blake Snell threw a no-hitter, and a week after Dylan Cease threw a no-hitter, was really fun. Totally nailed the non-Soto offseason moves, guys … DJ LeMahieu drove in a career high six runs last Wednesday in Philadelphia, then he drove in the game-tying run with a sac fly and the winning run with a walk-off single through the five-man infield Sunday. As an everyday player, LeMahieu is not so good at this point in his career. As a role player and spot starter, he’s found ways to contribute. Let’s not make this more than it is. Couple nice games. Doesn’t have to be anything more than that. Go DJ … And finally, I thought Jazz Chisholm Jr. was a bit, uh, jazzed up for his first home series as a Yankee. Took some really big five-run homer swings, especially when he had a chance to walk it off Sunday. Chisholm did steal third as the lead runner in that clutch double steal Sunday, and he continues to look more than capable at third base. He’ll settle in at the plate soon enough.

Injury updates and roster moves

Soto (hand) definitely isn’t 100%. He was in obvious pain after sliding into second on a double Sunday. Soto hit an opposite field home run earlier in the game and he’s been great at the plate all year, so it’s not like the hand has hurt his performance. Clearly though, it is still bothering him. I'm guessing he welcomed Monday’s off-day so he could just not use his hand for a day … Schmidt (lat) will face hitters in live BP for the first time Tuesday. Two live BPs and three rehab starts would put him on track to return the last week of August. At that point I wonder if the Yankees would just give him a fourth rehab start (or a third live BP), then activate him as the extra pitcher when rosters expand on Sept. 1st. I guess it’ll depend how Schmidt’s rehab goes and how the rotation holds up … Anthony Rizzo (arm) has been hitting lightly and going through fielding drills. He is eligible to come off the 60-day injured list on Aug. 16th, which isn’t far away. It’s next Friday. Doesn’t sound like Rizzo will be ready to come back the first day he’s eligible though … Jose Trevino (quad) has been going through light workouts, but there’s still no timetable for his return … Verdugo is a little beat up and that’s why he was out of the lineup Sunday, Boone said. Verdugo has a bad case of 87 wRC+itis … Ian Hamilton (lat) will throw a “high-intensity bullpen” on Tuesday, whatever that means. He’ll still need rehab games after that. Hamilton has an option and can be sent to Triple-A when he's activated … Jon Berti (calf) is running at 80%. Still no word when he’ll begin rehab games, but it sounds like it’ll be at least another week if he’s only running at 80% … Jahmai Jones did indeed clear waivers and remain with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. He was DFAed last week to clear a roster spot for Giancarlo Stanton. Jones went 0-for-4 in his first game with Triple-A Scranton … And finally, the Yankees released J.D. Davis late last week. He was DFAed to clear roster space for Chisholm. Davis is gonna screw up so many roster quizzes on Sporcle after the season.

Up next

Six games remain on the homestand. Three against the Angels and three against the defending World Series champion Rangers. The Angels took a series from the Mets this past weekend and the Mets swept all four Subway Series games from the Yankees, ergo the Angels are better than the Yankees. It’s science. Here’s what’s coming between now and Friday’s post:

• Tuesday vs. Angels: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Davis Daniel (7pm ET on YES)

• Wednesday vs. Angels: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Carson Fulmer (7pm ET on Amazon)

• Thursday vs. Angels: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. LHP Tyler Anderson (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)

Mike Trout tore the meniscus in his left knee again last week. He initially tore it in April, had surgery, did all the rehab, started a rehab assignment, then tore it again. His season is over. Injuries have limited Trout to 266 of 648 possible games from 2021-24, or 41%. That includes only 41 games after the All-Star break in those four seasons combined. It’s a damn shame the second half of Trout’s career is this.

Trout started his rehab assignment on July 23rd, so, conceivably, he could have returned in time for this series had he not torn the meniscus again. Instead, the Angels bring a team of busted prospects and hangers-on to the Bronx. Fulmer is in the rotation, Willie Calhoun hits cleanup, Hunter Strickland is the closer. The most rudderless franchise outside Denver. Do what must be done, Yankees.

(There’s rain in the forecast just about every day this week. Not sure what the outlook is as far as potential delays or postponements, but the Angels series could be messy.)

3. Prospect thoughts. The Florida Complex League Yankees won their fourth straight division title last month. It was still called the Gulf Coast League the last time they didn’t win the division. Alas and alack, they lost to the Pirates in the single-elimination first round. The Tigers won the FCL Championship Series. With the complex league seasons over, teams are now holding what amounts to Extended Spring Training 2.0 – they’re informally calling it the “bridge league” – to keep their rookie ballers busy in August and September. Here now are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Peraza heating up (finally)

SS Oswald Peraza survived the trade deadline – I think he was more valuable to the Yankees as “oh crap Anthony Volpe got hurt” shortstop depth than as a trade chip – and he’s really begun to heat up at the plate with Triple-A Scranton: .317/.404/.622 (161 wRC+) with six homers in his last 21 games. He swatted two home runs Sunday (video) and has worked his season line up to .243/.348/.376 (92 wRC+).

Peraza, 24, missed the first six weeks of the season with a shoulder injury and it’s possible, maybe even likely, he needed a few weeks to settle in at the plate. For what it’s worth, his hitter profile has changed drastically since last year. In Triple-A last season Peraza was a pull power guy. This year he’s been more approach oriented. Here are his Triple-A percentiles:

Last year Peraza wasn’t especially disciplined but he put a charge into the ball, and yanked it to the pull side. This season he’s been much more disciplined – his chase rate has gone from 33.4% to 24.3% – but he also isn’t driving the ball as much. At least not until the last few weeks. During this 21-game heater, Peraza’s pulled 12 fly balls and line drives. In the 38 games before that, he pulled only eight balls in the air.

Earlier in this post I noted Anthony Volpe has gone back to being a pull power guy in the second half after selling out for contact earlier in the season. It seems Peraza is kinda doing the same thing at the Triple-A level, though the caveat here is the injury. Did Peraza just need a few weeks to get comfortable at the plate after the shoulder injury? Or did he try to be a contact guy, decided it didn’t work, then go back to slugging? If that’s it, and Volpe did the same thing, maybe it was an organizational decision?

Unless someone gets hurt, there’s no room for Peraza at the MLB level this season. He’ll be out of options next year (I’m sure of it this time) but I still don’t know what the future holds. With Juan Soto’s free agency looming, it’s not hard at all to envision the Yankees replacing Gleyber Torres on the cheap with Peraza and Jorbit Vivas. That’s something to worry about next year. For now, Peraza has gotten his season back on track in Scranton. Now finish strong and force your way into someone’s 2025 plans, Oswald.

Carr turning his season around

Coming into the season LHP Kyle Carr, my No. 14 prospect, looked poised to be the next breakout Yankees pitching prospect. Geoff Pontes (subs. req’d) called him the “buzziest arm I’ve seen this spring” in March, and the Yankees brought him over from minor league camp at least once to throw live BP to the big leaguers. That is an endorsement. If they do that, it’s because they trust you not to hit Aaron Judge or Juan Soto (or anyone, but especially those two) with a pitch.

Rather than build on his impressive spring, Carr really, really struggled out of the gate. He had more walks (16) than strikeouts (12) in his first five starts with High-A Hudson Valley, and in those five starts opponents hit .297/.424/.487 against him. Ouch. The last few weeks have gone much better though. Carr’s made 18 starts this year, so let’s split his season right down the middle:

By no means has Carr been dominant lately. He’s gone from “this is really, really bad” to “this is workable.” Carr has allowed two runs or fewer six times in his last eight starts after doing it four times in his first 10 starts. Also, no more than one walk in four of his last six starts. Walks were a big issue earlier this season. Carr was not around the plate nearly enough. Now he’s starting to get there.

Carr was drafted out of a junior college and he turned 22 in May. He’s a year younger than RHP Chase Hampton and RHP Will Warren were when they broke out in their first pro seasons, and not every breakout happens right away. Sometimes it takes a year or two or three. You only need to look back to Spring Training to see the last time people were giddy about Carr. Hopefully he finishes the season well and continues to build on it next year. Props to him for getting his season on track after that ugly start.

Edgleen & Engelth

Two sleeper types had strong seasons in the FCL this summer. C Engelth Urena, one of last year’s Not Top 30 Prospects, slashed .301/.420/.564 (161 wRC+) with eight homers and more walks (14.8%) than strikeouts (11.7%) in 40 games. Among 71 qualified hitters, Urena ranked third in wRC+ and had the fifth lowest strikeout rate in the league. He did that after missing 2023 with knee surgery.

C Edgleen Perez, one of this year’s Prospects to Know, was not as impressive as Urena, but still very good overall: .283/.444/.380 (138 wRC+) with two home runs and more walks (20.8%) than strikeouts (16.2%) in 51 games. Urena is the more highly regarded hitter of the two and Perez the more highly regarded behind the plate. Urena turns 20 next week. Perez turned only 18 in May. He’s a baby.

There are only so many innings available behind the plate and Perez was the priority. He caught 34 games and played another 17 at DH. Urena caught 12 times, played 18 games at first base, and another 11 at DH. It should be noted Urena is a converted outfielder. Between injuries and the recent move behind the plate, he lacks experience at catcher. He’s rough around the edges now, but could improve with time.

C Agustin Ramirez has been traded and C/1B Ben Rice is 10 at-bats away from graduating. Once Rice graduates, Perez and Urena will take over as the top two catching prospects in the system (I do like C Rafael Flores a lot though). I’m not sure I’d call a great FCL season a “breakout,” I’d like to see it in full season ball before fully buying in, but 2024 was a great year for both guys, especially Urena after his knee injury.

Guy to know: RHP Kevin Stevens

With RHP Jack Neely traded, Stevens is probably the best pure relief prospect in the system. The Yankees signed him as an undrafted free agent out of Texas-Rio Grande Valley in July 2022 – Stevens told Eli Fishman he had a deal lined up with a Mexican League team before the Yankees called – and the poor guy has already torn his UCL three times. He missed last season rehabbing a partial tear.

Now 26, Stevens is cutting through hitters with Double-A Somerset – 2.54 ERA (2.49 FIP) with 34.8 K% and 9.9 BB% in 39 innings, and his 17.5% swinging strike rate is top 10 at Double-A and Triple-A – and is a 98-and-a-slider guy. Supposedly the numbers on his fastball (induced vertical break, etc.) are pretty great. Here’s the obligatory GIF:

This is the golden age of undrafted free agents. Teams are so good at developing players now, especially pitchers, and also the players are a higher caliber. A lot of undrafted free agents these days are kids who would have been drafted in rounds 21-40 in the past. Now the draft is only 20 rounds, so they go undrafted. Undrafted free agents today are way better than the undrafted free agents of yesteryear.

Stevens is technically an undrafted free agent, though he’s essentially equivalent to a 21st or 25th or whatever round pick making a name for himself. Ron Marinaccio (18th round) and Greg Weissert (19th round) were both drafted late, and there is not much of a difference between the 18th and 19th round and, say, the 30th round. It gets to a point where the difference is team preference more than talent.

Stevens is cut from the Marinaccio and Weissert cloth as a late-blooming reliever with a chance to be an up/down guy more than a legit high leverage option. And that’s a really good outcome even if you consider him the equivalent of a rounds 21-40 pick. Stevens turns 27 in January, but who cares? If you can get outs, they don’t care how old you are. He’s put himself on the map. (Stevens doesn’t have to go on the 40-man roster until after next season.)

Miscellany

OF Spencer Jones went 3-for-4 with two doubles and a homer Sunday (video). He also struck out 38 times in his previous 20 games and 91 plate appearances (41.8 K%). He’s hitting .245/.331/.427 (114 wRC+) with 36.6 K% overall. Last week Eric Longenhagen wrote Jones “looks totally uncomfortable at the dish and isn’t even accessing his power amidst all the whiffs (and he) looks better in center field than he does on offense.” Not great! … SS George Lombard Jr. has five homers in his last 35 games after hitting zero home runs in his 59 pro games dating back to last season. Lombard hit an opposite field home run in Spring Training (video), so there’s power in there, and it’s starting to show up. He turned 19 in June and is in the 73rd percentile in SEAGER and 84th percentile in max exit velocity in Low-A. The .232/.344/.348 (105 wRC+) season line isn’t amazing, but there is some good stuff going on under the hood … Another undrafted free agent worth knowing: LHP Ben Shields. He made a spot start for Triple-A Scranton on May 25th and got destroyed (nine runs in 1.2 innings), but otherwise has a 2.46 ERA (3.04 FIP) with 31.6 K% and 6.3 BB% in 80 innings at High-A and Double-A. That Triple-A spot start accounts for 24% of his runs and 2% of his innings this year. Shields is a low-90s fastball/sweeper/splitter guy who probably projects best as a swingman, but there’s a non-zero chance he can start long-term … RHP Jackson Fristoe, who had some buzz in Spring Training, exited his June 23rd start after one batter with a shoulder injury and has not pitched since. He had a 3.79 ERA (4.49 FIP) with a 24.4 K% and a way too high 17.7 BB% in 38 High-A innings before the injury … And finally, if you care about such things, Baseball America (subs. req’d) and FanGraphs both rank C Agustin Ramirez as the best prospect traded at the deadline. MLB Pipeline has him at No. 2. This was the first time in at least 10 years that not one of Baseball America’s top 100 prospects was not traded at the deadline. Pretty crazy, really.

4. 2024 draft signings. The trade deadline was last Tuesday and the 2024 draft signing deadline was last Thursday. I will skip the suspense: The Yankees signed their top 19 picks. 20th rounder Cole Royer did not sign. In my draft class write-up, I noted Royer might be a “backup” pick, meaning if the Yankees could not sign one of their overslot guys, they’d throw the money at him. The other 19 guys signed though, so Royer will head to Georgia Tech.

The Yankees did not lose bonus pool money for failing to sign Royer and they won’t get a compensation pick for him next year or anything like that. It’s a wasted pick, essentially. League-wide, only four of the 315 picks in the top 10 rounds (i.e. the rounds tied to the bonus pool) did not sign. The highest unsigned pick is SS Tyler Bell, who said no thanks to the Rays as the No. 66 pick and is heading to Kentucky. Tampa lost the $1,260,600 slot money associated with that pick. Ouch.

It was reported 1st rounder Ben Hess would sign below slot and that’s exactly what happened. The Yankees also saved a bunch of bonus pool money with the college seniors they selected in the 8th, 9th, and 10th rounds. Those savings were all spent on other players. The Yankees maxed out their bonus pool and then some. Here’s the bonus information:

Notice all those little $2,500 discrepancies. Hess is $2,500 short of an even $2.75M, Cunningham is $2,500 short of $2.23M, Herring is $2,500 short of $800,000, etc. That’s an accounting trick. The standard contract includes an easily attainable $2,500 bonus – it’s $2,500 for showing up, basically – and a few years ago teams stopped reporting it as part of the overall signing bonus. The player still gets the money and the team saves a little bonus pool space, which is spent on other players. Do it a few times and it adds up.

For all intents and purposes, the pool money the Yankees saved with Hess went to Cunningham, and the pool money they saved in rounds 8-10 (along with the 5% overage) went to Herring and Estrada. Herring was a draft-eligible sophomore and had added leverage. Estrada was the consensus best junior college prospect in the draft class and had a scholarship to Florida State waiting for him. As a reminder, every dollar over $150,000 in rounds 11-20 counts against the bonus pool. That’s why Estrada got a $640,340 bonus but only $490,340 counts against the bonus pool.

As for that 5% overage, that is the maximum teams can spend above their bonus pool without forfeiting future draft picks. No team has ever gone over 5% in the bonus pool era (since 2012) but a bunch spend right up to it each year, including the Yankees. The Yankees spent $8,538,190 toward the bonus pool this year, which is a 4.963% overage on their $8,134,500 pool. They had $3,035 leftover (really $3,034.99) before hitting the 5% threshold and forfeiting next year’s first rounder.

Stay within the 5% overage and the penalty is a 75% tax on every dollar over the bonus pool. The Yankees were $403,690 over their pool, so that’s $302,767.50 in tax. In actual dollars, the Yankees paid $9,688,190 in bonuses to their 19 draftees. Add in the $302,767.50 in tax and the total draft bill was $9,990,957.50 this year. That’s approximately 40 games of Aaron Judge. And that’s a wrap on 2024 draft coverage here. Now we wait for these kids to make their pro debuts. (Delossantos is 1-for-4 with Low-A Tampa. He’s the only 2024 draftee to appear in a game so far.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. CC Sabathia was inducted into the Guardians Hall of Fame over the weekend. He’ll join the BBWAA’s Hall of Fame ballot this winter. I think he’ll get in eventually, though it might be a few years. It’s getting to be time to talk about Sabathia and Monument Park, no? Ace of the most recent World Series winning team, a transformative presence in the clubhouse and on the field, top 10 in franchise history in all the important stuff (starts, wins, strikeouts, etc.). If the Yankees aren’t gonna retire No. 52, Sabathia deserves at least a plaque, right? I think so.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)