August 2nd, 2024: Chisholm, Warren, Bullpen, Flaherty, Mailbag

Could you imagine giving up a grand slam to DJ LeMahieu? Or losing to Road Nestor Cortes? Or letting Clay Holmes nail down a save? Phillies fraud status: confirmed. For real though, the Yankees are a perfect 5-0 in the Jazz Chisholm Jr. era (4-0 in games he’s played) and they just won back-to-back series for the first time since winning three straight against the Angels, Giants, and Twins in late May and early June. Been a while. Feels good. Here’s what I wrote after the trade deadline and here is today’s post.

1.  Weekday thoughts. The Yankees are getting out of Philadelphia just in time. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are hitting a combined .140/.189/.300 (30 wRC+) since the All-Star break – Harper went 0-for-14 with an intentional walk in this week’s series – and that won’t last. They’re too good. The Yankees caught Harper, Turner, and the Phillies in a rut and turned it into three Ws. Good week. Good, good week. A few thoughts on the last few games.

No. 13 at third base

Three games into Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s third base career and things are going … surprisingly well? He’s been pretty good at the hot corner. Here are some of the plays he made. With a new infield position, the learning curve doesn’t always show up when the player has to field a ground ball and make a throw. It often shows up on things like when you’re supposed to be the cutoff man, when you’re supposed to cover the base, etc.

For example, the Yankees might’ve had a play at third base on this ground ball Wednesday, but Chisholm didn’t go to the bag:

A more experienced third baseman likely recognizes the play, gets to third base, and at least gives Anthony Volpe the option of trying to get the lead runner. Here’s the television broadcast of the play. Volpe did check third, so the lead runner was on his mind, but it wasn’t an option because Chisholm wasn’t there. Jazz is still learning the nuances of the position. Otherwise, I think he handled his first three games at third nicely.

“I felt really comfortable at third. Back in the infield felt great. That’s where I feel I deserve to be,” Chisholm told Dan Martin earlier this week. “… It’s just about getting the first one out of the way. Letting the ball find you and making the play.”

It’s nice to see the Yankees with, like, an athlete too. No offense to everyone else, but there are times the Yankees look like a team of refrigerators on the field. Chisholm is the lithe, quick-twitch athlete the Yankees have not had since … Tyler Wade? Didi Gregorius among everyday players? Maybe it was Aaron Hicks. Whoever it was, it’s been a while. Chisholm’s energy and athleticism are a breath of fresh air.

I know DJ LeMahieu had a big game Wednesday, but I can’t say I’m eager to reinsert him into the lineup on a regular basis. Oswaldo Cabrera is Oswaldo Cabrera. To me, Chisholm at third equals the best possible team on the field, not him bouncing him between second and center and third. If the Yankees need him to play second or center now and then, fine, but Jazz at third is the best alignment with the current personnel.

“We’ll keep it fluid. It’s not set in stone. We want to get a look at what’s the best combination for us out there,” Aaron Boone told Martin about the defensive alignment. “… (Chisholm is) a special athlete. He came up as a shortstop and we feel like he has all the skills and ability to handle (third base).”

The bat’s been great too. Chisholm is 7-for-19 (.368) as a Yankee and he hit two homers Monday (one off a position player pitcher) and two homers again Tuesday, including the clutch go-ahead blast off lefty Matt Strahm (video). Chisholm had three two-homer games in five years with the Marlins. He already has two with the Yankees. He’s the first player ever with four homers in his first three games with the Yankees.

The Yankees return home Friday and Chisholm will undoubtedly get a loud ovation in his first game in the Bronx as one of the good guys. He’s been great so far and he’s likable. The short porch beckons too. You can already see how well-made his swing is for Yankee Stadium. Chisholm has aced his first impression and he looks at least capable at third. Turns out the third base bat the Yankees needed at the deadline was hiding in center field in Miami.

“This is what I live for. I love the lights. I love the big crowds. I love everything like that,” Chisholm told Bryan Hoch about being a Yankee. “So it's super exciting. I'm enjoying it.”

Cole scratched, Warren debuts

Gerrit Cole was scratched from Tuesday’s start a few hours prior to first pitch, and depending who you ask, he’s either under the weather or he feels fatigued and didn't recover well between starts. Boone said it’s the former. Cole said it’s the latter. He said his elbow is fine, but he feels worn down, and the Yankees are being careful with him given the elbow issue earlier this year.

“It was just hard to bounce back this last start. Just a bit rundown,” Cole told Gary Phillips. “… I’m still (seven) starts into this season for me and everyone else is in the middle of it all. So I feel different than other people. And maybe we all go through this at the beginning of the season or other different parts of the season, but we don’t always have an opportunity to just push it back and just get a few extra days.”

Cole’s scratch opened the door for Will Warren to make his MLB debut and I thought he pitched better than his line indicates: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR (video). He allowed a three-run homer to Austin Hays in the second inning – you think Hays is happy to get away from Walltimore? – then settled down and retired 12 of the final 14 batters he faced. In the fifth Warren struck out Turner, Harper, and Alec Bohm in order.

“I don’t know if I was nervous. More in shock, maybe. I looked around and said, ‘Dang, the stadium is bigger than I thought it was,” Warren told Martin about his MLB debut. “… It comes down to one mistake. (Hays) got it. That’s what happens up here. You keep pitching.”

Making your first big league start against the best team in baseball in their stadium ain’t easy, and Warren handled it all pretty well. Gave up the early homer, and rather let it snowball into a disaster outing, he settled down and pitched into the sixth inning. The stuff moved plenty and was as advertised. Sinkers and sweepers to righties, four-seamers and changeups to lefties, plus a few cutters (full-size image).

Only one start, but Warren will have to pitch inside more, especially to lefties in Yankee Stadium. Tuesday night Warren pitched away to almost every batter. For one night, it worked (mostly). That is the next step, developmentally. Using more of the plate. All in all though, Warren pitched well given the circumstances (tough opponent on the road, early homer, short notice, etc.). Good job, Will.

“He’s a confident kid,” Boone told Phillips. “We love his makeup. We love his stuff. He’s had some bumps in the road this year, but he’s also dominated a lot of outings too. So he has all the equipment to go out there and be successful.”

The new-look bullpen

Look, Clay Holmes has been really bad lately, but that was an stupid blown save Tuesday. It was a vintage Holmes blow save in that it was built on weak ground balls, not loud contact and extra-base hits. Holmes has given up plenty of hard-hit balls lately, but Tuesday? Come on with this (reverse chronological order):

(Hit distance is how far the ball traveled before it hit the ground, not how far it traveled before it was fielded.)

Annoying inning, but that’s the risk with a ground ball reliant closer. It was Holmes’ fifth blown save in seven chances and he continues to get murdered by BABIP. He’s up to a .319 BABIP on ground balls this season despite an 85.6 mph average exit velocity. It was a .211 BABIP and 88.0 mph average exit velocity on grounders for him the last two years. Everything has found a hole the last few weeks. Found a hole or not being hit hard enough to convert into an out. I hate it.

"That's our closer. I don't know what else to tell you. That's our guy. He's been our guy,” Aaron Judge told Chris Kirschner after Tuesday’s blown save. “I want him out there in any situation. Bases loaded and no outs or extra innings or bottom nine, top nine. That's our guy. You can ask anyone in this room if they want him on the mound in that situation. He's been there, done that, and we have faith in him. I really don't care what anyone else has to say."

Holmes told Martin: “It means a lot for my teammates to have my back there. No doubt, I wish it was a situation I could control more and put up better results to help the team. I can’t control everything. I’m a pitcher who relies on ground balls and it may not go your way.”

Anyway, Holmes closed out Wednesday’s win (after allowing a leadoff ground ball single, naturally), and we kinda sorta saw the new bullpen pecking order. It’s just one game, but:

• 6th inning: Luke Weaver enters mid-inning to face the 4-5-6 hitters, all righties.

• 7th inning: Weaver starts the inning, then Tommy Kahnle enters to face two lefties.

• 8th inning: Mark Leiter Jr. gets the 3-4-5 hitters.

• 9th inning: Holmes for the save.

It was Weaver potentially for 4-5 outs, Kahnle matched up against lefties, and Leiter against the middle of the order. Had the 3-4-5 hitters come up in the seventh rather than eighth, does Leiter come in then? Yeah, I think so. Boone’s done it in the past. Holmes was that middle of the order matchup guy regardless of inning in late 2021 and early 2022, before he settled in as the traditional closer.

Again, it’s just one game and we’ll see what the usage looks going forward, but Leiter gives Boone another late inning option. Does Weaver enter in the sixth inning without Leiter around to pitch the eighth? I doubt it. One out in the sixth was the earliest Weaver had entered a game since, well, July 10th. But before that Weaver had not entered a game that early since May 4th, before he’d emerged as a late inning option.

I can see the bullpen lining up in such a way that, for better or worse, Holmes is the traditional closer in the ninth inning, Leiter gets the other team’s best hitters, Weaver is the 4-6 out guy, and then Kahnle fills in the gaps and matches up with lefties as necessary. That leaves Tim Hill for left-on-left matchup work, and Jake Cousins, Michael Tonkin, and Enyel De Los Santos for everything else. I could see it taking shape like that.

The last few innings of Wednesday’s game were messy – Weaver, Kahnle, Leiter, and Holmes faced 18 batters and eight reached base (.444 OBP) – though everyone was working for the second straight day, and Leiter was pitching for the third time in four days after traveling Tuesday. Not the best day for the relief crew, but it happens. The next few weeks will be spent finding roles that work best for everyone, and hopefully it all falls into place before October.

Miscellany

Welcome back, Giancarlo Stanton. He went 2-for-9 (.222) with a walk and a strikeout in two starts and one pinch-hitting appearance in Philadelphia. The top exit velocities in Wednesday’s game:

That 120.0 mph ball (video) is tied for the fourth hardest hit ball in baseball this season. It’s only three games, but I’m pleasantly surprised Stanton hasn’t looked hopeless at the plate after coming back without a rehab assignment … LeMahieu hit a grand slam (video)! Off a pitcher who never gives up home runs too. Cristopher Sánchez went into Wednesday’s game with a 58.6 GB% and three homers allowed in 115 innings this year (0.23 HR/9 and 4.4% HR/FB), including zero homers in 72 innings at home. LeMahieu doubled in two runs later in the game too. Judge went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts and LeMahieu carried the Yankees to a victory. Bizarro world … What a battle between Juan Soto and Zack Wheeler on Monday. The Yankees hit Wheeler pretty hard, though he’s about as tough as they come, and Soto battled him for eight pitches before roping a two-run double to break the game open. Here’s the at-bat. That’s two best-in-the-world talents digging in and competing, and the hitter coming out on top. Special, special hitter Soto is. He needs to be a Yankee forever … Bohm tripled Wednesday and it looked like Judge pulled up to avoid crashing into the wall (video). Even if he didn’t, I am 100% cool with him doing so after the toe thing. There will be a time and a place for Judge to run into a wall again. An interleague game on July 31st is not it … And finally, Austin Wells started every game on the six-game road trip except the last one, which was a day game after a 12-inning night game. He is the first Yankees catcher to start five straight days (days, not games) since Gary Sánchez from July 30th to Aug. 3rd in 2021. With three opposing righties and another off-day coming Monday, I bet Wells starts all three games this weekend, including Saturday’s day game after Friday’s night game.

Injury updates and roster moves

Clarke Schmidt (lat) and Ian Hamilton (lat) could face hitters in live BP soon. No set date yet, but they are trending in that direction. Wouldn’t be surprised if it happens between now and the next post … Nick Burdi (hip) was activated off the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Scranton on Thursday. Cody Poteet (triceps) was transferred to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot. This is already Poteet's 49th day so the injured list, so the 60-day injured list doesn't change anything. He's throwing bullpens but has not yet faced hitters, as far as I know … The Yankees released Chasen Shreve from his minor league contract. He allowed six runs (three earned) in 11 innings with the RailRiders. Shreve might've had an Aug. 1st opt out. I dunno. Either way, he's gone … As expected, Jahmai Jones was DFAed to clear a roster spot for Stanton on Monday. He had only 47 plate appearances and 33 games played (10 starts) despite being on the roster all season. Jones was a great dugout hype man and a popular teammate, but the Yankees were essentially playing with a 25-man roster. Sucks he had to go, but he had to go. I bet Jones clears waivers and goes to Triple-A as a non-40-man roster player … Yoendrys Gómez threw two innings in Monday’s blowout win, then was sent to Triple-A. That opened a 26-man roster spot for Warren, who slid into Jones’ 40-man roster spot. Warren was then sent down after his start, and Ron Marinaccio was called up Wednesday. That was a one-game move (Marinaccio was sent down after the game) and Enyel De Los Santos will be added to the roster Friday. He was in San Diego with the Padres, and it was a late trade Tuesday and an early game Wednesday. He couldn’t get to Philadelphia in time for the game. De Los Santos took Caleb Ferguson’s 40-man spot, and the 40-man is now full. The Yankees will have to clear space when their 60-day injured list guys start getting healthy (Schmidt, Jon Berti, etc.), though they're still a few weeks off.

Up next

On paper, the schedule really eases up in August. You still have to go out and win games, wins aren't guaranteed, but the Yankees are out of this stretch of playing postseason contender after postseason contender. The Blue Jays are up first this weekend, then it’s the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, and Tigers. Here is August:

Five off-days (including yesterday), 17 of 26 games at home, the only road trips are pretty painless travel-wise (Chicago/Detroit and Washington DC), and the only opponents with a winning record are the Guardians and Cardinals. This month is a good opportunity to pad the ol’ win total. Here are the weekend pitching matchups:

• Friday vs. Blue Jays: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (7pm ET on YES)

• Saturday vs. Blue Jays: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP José Berríos (1pm ET on YES)

• Sunday vs. Blue Jays: TBA vs. RHP Yariel Rodríguez (1:30pm ET on YES)

• Monday: off-day

Cole will throw a bullpen Friday, and if that goes well, he’ll start Sunday. If he can’t start, Luis Gil lines up to pitch with an extra day of rest, or the Yankees could just bullpen game it since Monday’s an off-day (Friday and Saturday will determine whether a Sunday bullpen game is feasible). Hopefully Cole comes out of Friday’s bullpen in good shape. The Yankees have been without him long enough this year. If necessary, they can push Cole’s next start as far back as next Saturday without needing another spot starter.

The mission this weekend is to not let Vlad Guerrero Jr. beat you. He started the season a little slow (99 wRC+ in April), but he’s hitting .343/.405/.593 (178 wRC+) since May 1st, and he’s gone nuclear since the All-Star break: .489/.554/1.064 (332 wRC+) with seven homers in 13 games. Bo Bichette’s hurt and no else in the lineup is scary. Give Vlad Jr. the Barry Bonds treatment (i.e. the Sept. 2022 Judge treatment).

The Blue Jays traded Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros earlier this week, so we don’t have to worry about him this weekend. The final numbers on his Blue Jays tenure: 2.83 ERA (3.54 FIP) vs. Yankees and 4.71 ERA (4.49 FIP) vs. all other teams. Annoying. Now we just have to hope the Yankees don’t run into him in October.

2. Roster moves and trade deadline fallout. Remember when I was worried Ben Cowles going on the Double-A injured list might throw a wrench into things at the deadline? It didn’t thankfully – he was part of the Mark Leiter Jr. trade – but it is a significant injury. Cubs POBO Jed Hoyer said Cowles is likely done for the season with a hit-by-pitch related wrist injury, per Meghan Montemurro. They like him though, so they traded for him anyway.

“We really like the profile,” Hoyer told Jordan Bastian. “He’s had really good offensive success in the minor leagues. He’s done everything well. Run the bases well. Played good defense in the infield. He’s just had a really good year in Double-A.”

Does trading for Cowles even though he’s likely done for the year mean the Cubs have already decided to add him to the 40-man roster after the season? Either that or they think the injury will allow him to slip through the Rule 5 Draft cracks. I dunno. Not my problem now. With that out of the way, here’s the latest trade deadline fallout, and also some lower profile roster stuff.

Yankees backed out of Flaherty deal

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Yankees had a preliminary agreement in place to get Jack Flaherty from the Tigers, but backed out after reviewing his medicals. Flaherty had a bunch of arm issues earlier in his career, though it’s likely his back was the concern. He missed his July 3rd start with back tightness and received two injections in the span of three weeks.

"I can't comment on medical stuff with trades as a general point," Tigers POBO Scott Harris told Evan Petzold after the deadline. "And if medical stuff did affect any of the trades, that's not on our end. You can't ask me about that because we're not the one trading for Jack, so not commenting on any of that stuff because I can't."

Medical reviews are subjective – one team’s red flag could be another’s non-issue – and it’s possible the Yankees scrutinize medicals more closely after Frankie Montas. Montas left a start early and missed two others with shoulder inflammation in July 2022, the Yankees traded for him anyway, then he pitched poorly down the stretch and broke down, and eventually needed surgery. That wiped out almost his entire 2023.

It’s easy for me to sit here and say the Yankees should have gone through with the trade anyway – Flaherty has pitched very well lately and the Dodgers didn’t see anything wrong in his medicals – because Flaherty is good and you can always improve the rotation, but it’s not my neck on the line. I guess my question is why not pivot to another pitcher once the Flaherty trade fell through? Was it too late?

Or, maybe, was there just not anyone available and worth getting? The only other rental starters who got traded were Montas, Alex Cobb (hasn’t pitched all year because of injury), Yusei Kikuchi, Michael Lorenzen, James Paxton, and Martín Pérez. The Astros gave up a haul for Kikuchi and none of the other guys move the needle like Flaherty, who has a 2.95 ERA (3.11 FIP and 2.95 xERA) on the season.

“At the end of the day, I would've brought Jack Flaherty in if I could've matched up. I had difficulty matching up, and that was the reason I don't have him,” Brian Cashman told Jorge Castillo. That toes the line perfectly between not denying Rosenthal’s report – the Yankees could have still valued Flaherty at a lower price – and not commenting on the medicals of a player on another team. That’s a no-no.

We don’t know what the Yankees agreed to send the Tigers for Flaherty. I heard secondhand that George Lombard Jr.’s name came up in talks, but I have no idea if he was in the agreed upon trade. The Dodgers sent two prospects to Detroit. The Yankees’ equivalents:

• C/1B Thayron Liranzo: SS Roderick Arias (toolsy, high upside Single-A kid)

• IF Trey Sweeney: IF Jorbit Vivas (near-MLB-ready utility type)

Sweeney was of course the Yankees’ first round pick in 2021. They traded him to the Dodgers in the Victor González/Vivas deal over the winter. Sweeney’s not having a good year in Triple-A (.254/.334/.427 and 86 wRC+) and is the clear second piece in the trade. Feels like a “we’re not planning to put him on the 40-man roster after the season, so you take him” thing for the Dodgers. Liranzo’s the big get for Detroit.

Matching the Dodgers’ offer isn’t the issue here. The Yankees had a trade in place with the Tigers. The two teams had already agreed to the names. Then the Yankees backed out over Flaherty’s medicals. Maybe Flaherty will continue to pitch like an ace and it’ll prove to be a massive mistake. Maybe his back will begin barking next week and the Yankees will look smart. I dunno. I guess we’ll find out soon.

"All I know is I feel great," Flaherty told Alden Gonzalez after reporting to the Dodgers. "I've felt great since we got back from the break or even right before that. I've felt great and been ready to pitch. I've been pretty anxious about just wanting to get out there again."

(Dan Hayes (subs. req’d) seems to suggest the Yankees and Twins were working on a Nestor Cortes trade, but once the Flaherty deal fell through, the Yankees kept Cortes. I wonder what was going on there.)

Yankees sign Phillips

While all the trade deadline stuff was going down, the Yankees found time to sign former outfielder Brett Phillips to a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman. The kicker: Phillips is a pitcher now. He started this season with the White Sox, hit .120/.228/.280 (29 wRC+) in 17 Triple-A games, then got released in May. Sometime after that he decided to give pitching a try.

“This wasn’t something where I got ready in a week for this,” Phillips told Taylor Eldridge recently. “I’ve put in a lot of good work. This has been a thought-out process and something I really want to pursue, and I feel like I can still make a difference at the big league level.”

This past weekend Phillips, now 30, pitched for the GPS Legends in the National Baseball Congress World Series, which is an annual tournament in Wichita for college and semi-pro players. A bunch of current big leaguers have played in the NBCWS over the years. I looked up the list of alumni and look who showed up:

That’s right, Austin Barnes. Anyway, here is Phillips pitching for the GPS Legends. Apparently he hit 97 mph. I assume the Yankees will send Phillips to Tampa, get him in their pitching lab, then see what he looks like in Low-A games across the street rather than send him right to Triple-A. This probably won’t go anywhere. If it does, the Yankees are getting in on the ground floor of Phillips as a pitcher.

“Honestly, it felt like I was playing in the big leagues,” Phillips told Eldridge about his pitching appearance this past weekend. “Just because of how new (pitching) is to me, that’s how it felt emotions-wise. I’m excited to see where this takes me, but it was a great first step.”

Jeter heads to Japan

And finally, Jeter is heading to Japan. Earlier this week the Yankees released Jeter Downs so he could pursue an opportunity with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. Downs hit .264/.360/.498 (117 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 69 Triple-A games while playing the three non-first base infield positions. If the Yankees didn’t call him up and give him a look at third base earlier this year, they never were, so to Japan he goes.

As I write this Thursday, Triple-A Scranton has 11 healthy position players on the roster, and that has been the case since Tuesday. Caleb Durbin figures to rejoin them soon (he’s in Double-A working his way back from a broken wrist), but yeah, the RailRiders are short on players at the moment. The Yankees might make a minor league depth signing or two soon. They need bodies in Scranton (Jahmai Jones clearing waivers would help here). On that note …

3. The Yankees need a Triple-A catcher. It’s a good year to be a catcher in the Yankees’ system. Austin Wells is establishing himself as a legit No. 1 at the MLB level. Carlos Narváez, the second longest tenured player in the organization*, finally made his MLB debut. Ben Rice went from Double-A to a three-homer game in the Bronx. Agustin Ramirez is breaking out and got traded to the Marlins, where he has a much clearer path to the big leagues seeing how Miami’s catchers are hitting .195/.230/.267 (38 wRC+) with -0.2 fWAR in 2024. Prospect to Know Rafael Flores looks legit too.

* Technically tied with Oswaldo Cabrera. Cabrera and Narváez both signed with the Yankees on July 2nd, 2015, the first day of the 2015-16 international signing period. Only Aaron Judge, a 2013 draft pick, has been in the organization longer than those two.

For the players, it’s a great year to be a catcher in this system. For the Yankees, the minor league catcher depth chart has thinned out. Narváez, Rice, and Wells are in the big leagues. Ramirez has been traded. 2018 first rounder Anthony Seigler is now a second baseman (zero innings at catcher in 2024) and 2018 second rounder Josh Breaux was released in June. As it stands, the upper level catcher depth chart looks like this:

• MLB: Narváez and Wells (plus injured Jose Trevino, and Rice in an emergency)

• Triple-A: J.C. Escarra and Peter Serruto

• Double-A: Flores, Juan Crisp, and Jesus Rodriguez

Crisp is an organizational depth guy who’s appeared in 27 games since 2021. Rodriguez has a reputation for being a catch-and-throw guy, and he might be breaking out at the plate: .315/.396/.500 (152 wRC+). He’s also played some infield and outfield, and is not really a full-time catcher. Flores is the name to know in Double-A. He’s hitting .268/.376/.457 (137 wRC+) with the contact quality to support it. He’s emerging as a future dingers-and-defense backup. That would be a big developmental win for an undrafted free agent.

As for Triple-A, the Yankees signed Escarra out of an independent league in January and he’s a utility guy who can catch more than a full-time catcher. He’s mostly played first and third, and some corner outfield. The Yankees signed Serruto as an undrafted free agent last August. His pro career consists of one game in High-A, two games in Double-A (one as a position player pitcher), two plate appearances, and 5.1 innings at catcher. That is Scranton’s backup catcher right now.

Trevino is still weeks away as far as we know, which means the Yankees are a bad luck foul tip away from being in a real catching bind. I assume they would put Rice behind the plate at the MLB level before Escarra or Serruto, but still. I have to think the Yankees will bring in a Triple-A catcher soon. Preferably someone with MLB experience (a journeyman type, not necessarily a big name), but they’re at the mercy of minor league free agency. Only so many players are available. Good for the catchers for having positive seasons. The Yankees need a stopgap to support them until Trevino returns and Narváez can go back to Triple-A.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB released the postseason schedule earlier this week and there are two things to know. First, the ALDS has a 1-1-3 format this year. There’s an off-day between Games 1 and 2, and between Games 2 and 3, and that’s it. Games 3-5 will be played on three consecutive days, if necessary. Yankees vs. Mariners in the ALDS would be a travel nightmare for Game 5. Hopefully it doesn’t happen. The Wild Card Series is three games in three days and both the ALCS and World Series have the usual 2-3-2 format. It’s just the ALDS that is weird. And second, the World Series has a flexible schedule for the first time ever. If the ALCS and NLCS both end in five games or fewer, MLB will move the World Series up three days to avoid a long layoff. I like it. I feel bad for the media folks who have to make travel plans around it, but that ain’t me this year, so I like it. 

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Several asked: What’s the plan with Jasson Domínguez? What’s his service time situation?

Got a few variations of this question. To answer the easy part first, Domínguez needs to spend 51 days in the minors on an optional assignment (i.e. not as a rehabbing player on the MLB injured list) this year to push his free agency back from the 2029-30 offseason to the 2030-31 offseason. The 51st day is Saturday, as in tomorrow. Good timing on the questions, I guess. El Marciano spent most of the last few weeks on the minor league injured list. Calling him up wasn’t an option even if the Yankees wanted to.

As for the plan moving forward, Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch “we like what we have currently, it’s nice to know we have (Domínguez) if we need it” earlier this week. I saw people get mad about that on media sociale, but what is Cashman supposed to say? He’s not gonna throw Alex Verdugo, the only big league outfielder who could possibly be replaced, under the bus and say Domínguez is coming for his job. What Cashman said is a total nothingburger. It’s typical GM speak.

I’m excited about Domínguez and would love to see him in the big league lineup. Right now though, the kid really needs at-bats. Between the elbow and the oblique, Domínguez has barely 100 plate appearances this year, his age 21 season. He has yet to play a full nine innings in center field since returning from the oblique last week, so these are still rehab games for him. Domínguez has been in rehab mode basically all season. I think keeping him in the minors in August and letting get at-bats is perfectly reasonable.

The September roster expansion rules mean a call up is not guaranteed. You get one extra position player and one extra pitcher in September. That’s it. The Yankees have Jon Berti, Anthony Rizzo, and Jose Trevino coming back at some point these next few weeks. The roster is already overstuffed. Domínguez very well might spend the rest of the year in the minors. I’d be bummed, I want to see him in the big leagues, but I also get it given the roster crunch and his injuries.

What this means for 2025, I do not know. Would the Yankees be comfortable slotting Domínguez in as their everyday center fielder next Opening Day if he gets zero big league action (and only 250 or so minor league plate appearances) this year? Yeah, maybe, but I can’t say for sure. Unless an injury opens an outfield spot, I think Domínguez spends the rest of 2024 in the minors. 

Mike asks: Can Wells get the Yankees a draft pick for ROY?

Yes! Austin Wells does meet the criteria for a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick. Here is that criteria:

• Rookie-eligible this year? Yes.

• Still with the team he made his MLB debut with? Yes.

• Started the season with fewer than 60 days of service time? Yes. Wells was at 31 days.

• Accrue a full year of service time this season? This will happen barring a surprise.

• Appear on two preseason top 100 prospect lists from Baseball America, ESPN, or MLB Pipeline? Yes. Wells was No. 71 for Baseball America and No. 82 for ESPN.

If you don’t trust me, Matt Eddy said before the season Wells is PPI eligible. Now Wells just needs to win Rookie of the Year this year, or finish in the top three of the MVP voting during his pre-arbitration years (2024-26) to get the Yankees the extra pick. Also, it’s one PPI pick per player. The Orioles already got their PPI pick for Gunnar Henderson when he won Rookie of the Year last year. They won’t get another one if he finishes top three in the MVP voting this year.

This is not a great year for AL rookies and finishing in the top three of the MVP voting is really hard. This year is the best chance for the Yankees to get a PPI pick for Wells. Here is the AL rookie FanGraphs WAR leaderboard (FanGraphs including framing, Baseball Reference does not):

1. Colton Cowser: +2.9 WAR
2. Austin Wells: +2.4 WAR
3. Luis Gil: +2.3 WAR
4. Wilyer Abreu: +1.9 WAR
5. Mason Miller: +1.8 WAR

The difference between Cowser and Wells is playing time as much as anything. Cowser’s at 347 plate appearances. Wells is at 244. They’re both above-average hitters (Cowser’s has a 121 wRC+, Wells a 112 wRC+), and Wells is playing better defense (+7 DRS vs. +2 DRS) at a more valuable position. Miller has the hype, but he’s going to miss time after breaking the pinky on his non-pitching hand, which could cut into his Rookie of the Year case. 

Gil’s been great, but he is not PPI eligible because he didn’t meet the top 100 prospects list criteria. As cool as it would be to see him win Rookie of the Year – I think Gil would win if the voting were held today? – Wells winning it is better for the Yankees, because it would give them an extra draft pick next year. A high pick too. Those PPI picks come right after the first round. So yeah, keep mashing and go win Rookie of the Year, Wellsie.

Chris asks: So given when SD gave up for Scott and Hoeing, what would the Yanks have had to offer to get Scott? Or was Miami only interested in trading both? And given what they would have given up, would that have been a good trade in your view for a 2-month rental? Do you think the Yanks will be in on Scott in the offseason? 

Bryan Hoeing is having a nice year (2.70 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 48.9 GB% in 30 innings with the Marlins), but he’s a 27-year-old up/down guy. Feels like he was closer to a throw-in than a big get. The Padres relented and said fine, we’ll give you four prospects for Scott, but you have to give us one more arm so we don’t deplete our reserves, and the Marlins gave them Hoeing. Something like that maybe? I don’t think Hoeing was a huge piece in the trade.

Based on Baseball America’s midseason rankings (subs. req’d), the Padres gave up their No. 3, No. 4, No. 6, and No. 29 prospect for Scott (and Hoeing). Best case is what, Scott throws 30 innings for San Diego this year, postseason included? Those will be high leverage innings, so a guy like that can move the needle, but the Padres certainly paid a premium. GM A.J. Preller isn’t shy about big trades.

Here is the Yankees’ equivalent to the Scott (and Hoeing) trade package. These aren’t perfect, but I think they’re in the ballpark:

• LHP Robby Snelling: RHP Chase Hampton (premium arm having down/injured year)

• RHP Adam Mazur: RHP Will Warren (MLB-ready back-end type)

• IF Graham Pauley: IF Jorbit Vivas (upper level utility type)

• IF Jay Beshears:  IF Enmanuel Tejeda (Single-A lottery ticket)

Rental relievers, even great ones, have brought back nothing close to that in recent years. Jordan Hicks and David Robertson fetched two interesting lower level guys last year. Robertson returned one good upper level prospect the year before. It was a seller’s market and the Marlins capitalized. Good for them.

To answer the question, I would have hated trading this much for Scott (and Hoeing), but I also would have understood paying a premium to get an impact reliever in what is theoretically an all-in year. One of those costs of doing business situations. The Lucas Erceg trade is the one that chaps me. He was so cheap! And you get him for another few years! Blah. Stupid Athletics. Good work by the Royals.

As for Scott’s free agency, I don’t think the Yankees are eager to spend big money on a reliever, especially with Juan Soto’s free agency looming. Scott’s looking at 3-4 years at $10M to $12M a year easy, and maybe more than that. For better or worse, the Yankees build their bullpens on the cheap, hence trading for Mark Leiter Jr. (and Enyel De Los Santos) rather than emptying the system for rental Scott.

John asks: Could we see Chase Hampton (and Jack Neely) in the bullpen down the stretch? With the price of bullpen arms, they both seem like it’d be a low-risk high-reward option.

John sent this question in before the trade deadline but it is still worth answering. I would have said yes to Neely, who was included in the Mark Leiter Jr. trade. As for Hampton, I don’t think so. He’s still working his way back from his elbow injury and is being built up carefully. Hampton is five starts into what amounts to a rehab assignment, and he got stretched out to 3.2 innings and 49 pitches last time out. Here’s video of his July 19th outing.

Also, Hampton’s velocity is down. Statcast says his fastball averaged 91.3 mph (93.8 mph max) in his three starts with Low-A Tampa in July. Hampton reportedly sat 93-95 mph and topped out at 97 mph last season, and he averaged 94.9 mph (96.0 mph max) in his lone Grapefruit League outing this year before the injury. So clearly, his velocity is down just from where it was in Spring Training, nevermind last year.

The best case scenario is Hampton is still building arm strength after the long layoff. Worst case is his stuff has backed up after the injury. That would stink but it is way, way too early to say that. Point is, no, I don’t see Hampton as a bullpen option. He’s still rehabbing from this elbow injury and his stuff is down (not to mention the Yankees would have to put him on the 40-man roster a year before it's necessary). Let Hampton focus on getting healthy and getting ready for 2025. This is essentially a lost season.

Kane asks: Assume Judge finishes out the season on a tear and gets another MVP, but the Yanks end up losing in the playoffs. Judge decides to pull a Koufax and retire. Is he in the Hall of Fame?

No on a technicality: Aaron Judge doesn’t have the requisite 10 years in the big leagues to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot. I’ll tell you what though, talking to some writer pals the last few months (not any beat writers or anyone who covers a specific team), they said they expect to vote for Judge when the time comes because his peak is so insanely high. I was a bit surprised, but it’s not crazy, right? 

Judge is one of the handful of players with a 1.000-ish OPS through age 32, and over the last three years he’s hitting .300/.426/.667 (200 wRC+) in over 1,600 plate appearances. Here is the complete list of hitters with a 170 wRC+ and 35 homers in three straight seasons:

• Babe Ruth: 1920-24 and 1926-32

• Willie Mays: 1963-65

• Jason Giambi: 2000-02

• Barry Bonds: 2000-04

Basically the three greatest players to ever live and Jason Giambi. Judge is hitting .316/.447/.689 (212 wRC+) this year and he already has the 35 homers, so he’ll join that club barring a collapse. It is absolutely a Hall of Fame peak. Judge still has a chance at 500 homers too (he’s at 296), and the AL’s single-season home run record won’t hurt his Hall of Fame chances (the record didn’t get Roger Maris in though).

Judge’s Hall of Fame case is already pretty strong based on his peak. He is the most prolific power hitter of this generation and one of the best hitters of this generation period. Judge still has time to add to his career totals too. +60 WAR is when a player’s Hall of Fame case starts to get serious and Judge is at +48.9 WAR at age 32 despite a relatively late start to his career. I think he’s about 70% of the way to the Hall of Fame right now. Still work to do, but the bulk of his Cooperstown case has been built.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)