July 29th, 2024: Chisholm, Judge, Wells, Trade Deadline Rumors

UPDATE: My note about Marcus Stroman's player option in the Miscellany section is wrong. The player option is tied to his innings in 2025, not 2024. The usually reliable Cot's Baseball Contracts says 2024, but the Associated Press says 2025, and I trust the AP. Cot's has a mistake on its page. It happens. Point in, Stroman will not gain access to the player option this year. That's a next year problem.

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ORIGINAL POST: Busy time of year, folks. Here’s what I wrote about the Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade, here’s what I wrote about the trade deadline before the Chisholm trade (mostly outdated now), and here is Tuesday morning’s post on Monday. With the deadline coming up Tuesday, I wanted to get this off my plate, plus posts always make the most sense between series. I will do my best to cover everything deadline-related in a timely manner these next few days. I won’t leave you in the cold until Friday.

1. Weekend thoughts. Can’t say I expected the Yankees to escape Boston with two wins, especially after Friday night and extra especially after going into the ninth inning down a run Saturday. That was a good ol’ fashioned Fenway Park chaos series. Those games used to take 4.5 hours before the pitch clock. As bad as the Yankees have been these last few weeks, they’re only a game back in the AL East (two in the loss column). Hard to believe. Thanks, Orioles. A few thoughts on the weekend in Boston.

Jazz debuts

The Yankees traded for Jazz Chisholm Jr. on Saturday afternoon, he got himself to Boston quickly (the Marlins were in Milwaukee), and he was in the lineup Sunday night. He arrived about an hour before first pitch. “He wants to win. You can hear it in his voice how excited he is to be coming here, to have a chance to win and play with the Yankees,” Aaron Boone told Max Goodman after connecting with Chisholm for the first time.

“Dynamic player,” Aaron Judge told Greg Joyce. “You could throw him up there in the leadoff spot or wherever, he’s going to lengthen this lineup. He’s a weapon. Can put him in the outfield, put him anywhere on the infield. He’s got speed, he’s got power. I know all of us in here are pretty excited."

Jazz went 1-for-5 with an infield single and a strikeout in his Yankees debut, and had a ball off the Green Monster hop over his head for a triple (video). We can chalk that up to inexperience since it was only his fourth career game in Fenway Park as an outfielder. (Juan Soto has to do a better job backing up there too.) The most eventful part of Chisholm’s debut was when he stumbled around second and ran headfirst in Romy Gonzalez in the top of the ninth. He’s fine though. He stole third two pitches later and scored on a sac fly (video).

Chisholm batted fifth in his Yankees debut and it sounds like the plan is to keep him in the middle of the lineup – “I plan on him swiping some bases,” Boone told Gary Phillips – with I guess Alex Verdugo or Gleyber Torres in the leadoff spot depending on righty/lefty. Let’s see where the deadline takes the Yankees before having a conniption about the lineup. All I know is that, with Giancarlo Stanton due back Monday, we’re potentially hours away from something like this:

1. LF Alex Verdugo
2. RF Juan Soto
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. C Austin Wells
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton
6. 3B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
7. 2B Gleyber Torres
8. 1B Ben Rice
9. SS Anthony Volpe

Is that … lineup depth? It is. In theory, anyway. We’ll see how things play out on the field. Also, Chisholm at third is not some fantasy. Boone said the Yankees intend to play him there – they’re reluctant to play Torres at third (because he has a weak arm?) – possibly as soon as Monday. Two years ago Jazz volunteered to play center field to help the Marlins improve the roster. He sounds down to pay third.

"I mean, I went out there and played center field for the first time last year and I felt like it was pretty difficult at first," Chisholm told Phillips. "But I just feel like I could go and play anywhere and help my team win. For me, it's just going somewhere – especially a winning team – and they're asking me to go somewhere to help them win? I'm definitely gonna go out there and do it."

Chisholm at third base gives off “why didn’t you just get a shortstop? well we think Isiah Kiner-Falefa can play short” vibes, but the third base bar is on the floor, so why not at this point. Plus the trade deadline is still a day away. Who knows who will be walking through the door later this week. As currently constructed, either someone plays out of position or an everyday guy is out of the lineup entirely. The former is preferable. The Yankees are a tidy 2-0 in the Jazz era, and 1-0 with him in the lineup.

"We're excited to get a talent like his,” Boone told Goodman. “We think his skill set will play at Yankee Stadium. He's got power. He's got tremendous speed. He's got position versatility. He obviously plays with a lot of energy and a lot of pizzazz. It's a young, athletic player that has a couple of years of control in there too. So, excited to get him. Excited to see him fit in. I know he's really excited to get here."

Judge approaching 1.000

I’m not sure it’s possible for a human being to hit a ball better than Judge did Friday night (video). Statcast says it was 114.4 mph off the bat and 470 feet from home plate, which feels about 10 mph light and 50 feet short. I’ve watched hundreds of Fenway Park games in my life, maybe even thousands, and I don’t ever remember seeing a ball hit here:

The bullpen could not make the lead stand up, but my goodness, what a blast. It didn’t even look like a full effort swing. Judge is that kinda special athlete where it looks like he’s operating at 75%, yet it’s still better than everyone else. Think about his throws. Have we ever seen him really cut it loose and throw as hard as possible? I mean really, really cut it loose? I don’t think so.

“I just know that when he squared it up, I was like, ‘That’s as clean as you can hit a baseball,’” Boone told Hoch about Judge’s homer.

Saturday night Judge went 4-for-4 with a double, a homer, and two walks. He’s the first Yankee to reach base six times in a game since Didi Gregorius went 5-for-5 with two doubles, a homer, and a walk in the Aaron Hicks catch game in Minnesota in 2019. Love Sir Didi, but I would not have guessed he was the last Yankee to reach base six times in a game. Would you believe Stephen Drew once did it too?

Judge went 1-for-3 with two walks Sunday and 6-for-11 with a double, two homers, five walks, and one strikeout in the series. That raised his career batting line to .285/.401/.597 in just under 4,100 plate appearances. Stretch it out a few decimal places and it’s a .99798 OPS. Judge is on the verge of joining the 1.000 career OPS club, which has only 10 members. Of course, Judge hasn’t had his decline phase yet, so that number will (probably) come down, but still. Judge is 14th all-time in OPS through age 32:

1. Babe Ruth: 1.189
2. Ted Williams: 1.117
3. Lou Gehrig: 1.084
4. Jimmie Foxx: 1.073
5. Hank Greenberg: 1.040
6. Todd Helton: 1.023
7. Albert Pujols: 1.022
8. Frank Thomas: 1.018
9. Stan Musial: 1.014
10. Mickey Mantle: 1.011
11. Manny Ramirez: 1.010
12. Rogers Hornsby: 1.010
13. Johnny Mize: 1.001
14. Aaron Judge: .99798
15. Mike Trout: .991

Basically the 14 greatest hitters to ever live, and Aaron Judge. Now, a 1.000 OPS means different things at different points in history, so using OPS+ to adjust for ballpark and era and all that, Judge’s career 169 OPS+ through age 32 is tied for 12th all-time with Mize and Thomas. This is special, special stuff we’re witnessing. Judge is one of the greatest offensive forces ever, not just of his generation.

I am sad to report Judge has fallen off the 100 extra-base hit pace. He’s on pace for 96 XBH, which would be the most since Chris Davis had 96 XBH in 2013. The last hitter with more was Derrek Lee with the 2005 Cubs (99 XBH). Judge is hitting .314/.446/.684 (211 wRC+) this season, and that's ahead of his 2022 pace (.311/.425/.686 and 209 wRC+). The Yankees have had a rough few weeks. They’d be so much worse without this guy. What a player Judge is.

Wells has arrived

It took him long enough! The guy has 89 games and 309 plate appearances in the big leagues! In all seriousness, Austin Wells has been legit great for two months now: .260/.391/.516 (158 wRC+) with seven homers since June 1st. Also strong strikeout (20.7%) and walk (15.5%) rates, and mature at-bats. His playing time has gone up since Jose Trevino’s injury and Wells is making the most of it.

“It’s just progress. You’re going to have stretches when you feel bad and when you feel good. For me, it’s just trying to limit the bad and extend the good,” Wells told Dan Martin two weeks ago. “… The more at-bats I get, the better I feel. I feel like the more I’m seeing teams and seeing arms in the big leagues, the more comfortable I’m feeling at the plate.”

Back in April, I mentioned Wells was making good contact despite his lack of production, but noted he was lifting everything to left field. “Obvious statement is obvious: Wells needs to start pulling the ball,” I wrote. Me saying it and Wells doing it are very different things, and it’s not as easy as flipping a switch, but give Wells credit. He did indeed start pulling the ball, and the results have followed:

All told, Wells is slashing .241/.343/.415 on the season – his 118 wRC+ ranks sixth among all catchers (min. 200 PA) – and the defense has been so good! Wells is running a league average 24% caught stealing rate, he’s top five in both FanGraphs (+7.1 runs) and Statcast (+6 runs) framing, and top 10 in Statcast blocking (+4 runs). Wells being an average defender would have been a pleasant surprise, but this? Sheesh.

Baseball Reference does not include framing in WAR. FanGraphs does. Here is the catcher fWAR leaderboard:

1. Patrick Bailey: +3.4 WAR
2. Will Smith: +2.5 WAR
3. Cal Raleigh: +2.5 WAR
4. William Contreras: +2.4 WAR
5. Austin Wells: +2.4 WAR

This makes me so happy. This recent hot streak won’t last forever, this is a sport of ups and downs, but this is a talented young player and a recent first round pick having a nice run of success. That Wells is pulling the ball more often is a tangible reason to believe this is sustainable to some extent. It’s not like Wells is living off dinks and dunks and short porch cheapies.

The Yankees never did give a timetable for Trevino and his quad injury – “It’s going to be some time,” is all Boone said on July 14th – but it is a Grade 2 strain, so yeah, it will be some time. Wells has started 10 of 11 games since Trevino went down, including a day game after a night game last weekend. He is the No. 1 catcher now. The defense has been really good and the bat is coming around. Happy days.

“He’s a big part of the team and we want him back as fast as possible,” Wells told Martin about Trevino. “He’s helped the pitching staff so much this year, and getting to work with him has been great. I’m looking forward definitely to playing more, but I’m excited for him to get back.”

Miscellany

Great start for Carlos Rodón on Sunday: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K, 2 HR (video). Threw a career high 28 changeups too, so the pitch mix continues to evolve. The back-to-back homers stunk, but he was able to strand the leadoff triple, and he gave the Yankees some much needed length on a night the bullpen was short. It’s been tough sledding for the rotation the last few weeks. Rodón really stepped up the last two times out. Props. Also, what a job by Jake Cousins escaping that jam Sunday. Is he becoming a capital-D Dude? … Clay Holmes has given up the yams far too often lately, including in that gut-punch loss Friday, but that was a great rebound outing Saturday (video). Six outs and 26 pitches while pitching for the second straight day, and he stranded the automatic runner in the tenth inning (though that run didn’t matter). It was, dare I say, an All-Star level performance. It’s amazing how Holmes can look shaky one day and then go into Terminator mode 24 hours later … Shoutout to Trent Grisham. He’s hitting .247/.336/.474 (127 wRC+) in over 100 plate appearances since June 1st and had that clutch two-out, two-strike, game-tying double against Kenley Jansen on Saturday (video). He’s gonna lose playing time after the Chisholm trade, but he did fine work when pressed into duty these last few weeks … The benching of DJ LeMahieu has begun. Oswaldo Cabrera has started the last four games at third base (LeMahieu started one of those games at first) and is on one of his BABIP heaters, going 8-for-25 (.320) with a double and a homer in his last six games. Did you know the Yankees are 6-0 when Cabrera homers, and all six homers have either tied the game or given the Yankees the lead? Neat. LeMahieu is down at .176/.269/.221 (47 wRC+) with 24 hits and 10 GIDP. Cabrera is simply the better player, not that I think his recent hot streak is who he really is or what we should expect going forward … Rice is in an ugly 6-for-56 (.107) with 24 strikeouts skid since the three-homer game, though he had the big double to set up the game-tying run in the ninth inning Saturday (video), and I think his at-bats are getting better. He was chasing out of the zone and flailing away for a bit. Last few games Rice has been more in control at the plate. Ultimately, he needs to produce, but at least now we’re seeing some signs of life … Nestor Cortes has not completed five innings in any of his last three starts and Marcus Stroman got zero swings and misses among his 60 pitches against the team with the sixth highest swinging strike rate in baseball Saturday. Those two combined for a 6.51 ERA (6.60 FIP) and 4.7 innings per start in July. Yuck. Also, Stroman only needs to throw another 26.1 innings this year to get his $18M player option for 2026. Joy … And finally, Verdugo went 7-for-15 (.467) with three doubles this past weekend. Please let that be him heating up. Since June 14th, he is 13-for-42 (.310) with four doubles and two homers in nine games against the Red Sox, and 15-for-111 (.135) with five doubles and no homers in 26 games against everyone else. Good revenge hitter, if nothing else.

Injury updates and roster moves

J.D. Davis was DFAed to clear a roster spot for Chisholm – Davis went 2-for-19 (.105) with nine strikeouts and two GIDPs with the Yankees – and, with the caveat that another trade could be made these next few hours, I would guess Jahmai Jones will get DFAed to open a spot for Stanton (hamstring). Giancarlo’s not going on a rehab assignment, which I dislike, but it is what it is. As it stands, the Yankees have one open 40-man roster spot. A Jones DFA would open another. Those open 40-man spots are important this time of year … Jasson Domínguez (oblique) returned to action Friday. He is 1-for-9 with four strikeouts through two games with Triple-A Scranton. Technically, this is not a rehab assignment – Domínguez is an active player on an optional assignment, not an MLB player on the injured list – but these are rehab games for him. He DHed Friday, sat Saturday, and DHed Sunday. Figure at least another week until El Marciano is built back up and playing full games in the field, and probably longer than that. At least he’s playing again … Breakout Double-A infielder Ben Cowles (.294/.376/.472 and 140 wRC+) was placed on the Double-A injured list over the weekend after being hit by a pitch. Cowles is one of those prospects who will be on the 40-man roster/Rule 5 Draft bubble after the season, making him a trade candidate. Hopefully a bad luck HBP injury right before the deadline doesn’t scuttle anything.

Up next

A 2009 World Series rematch in Philadelphia. The Phillies have the best record (65-40) and run differential (+114) in baseball, though they’re 19-20 in their last 39 games and have lost their last four series. The bullpen in particular has been messy of late. The Phillies still have an 8.5-game lead in the NL East though, so they can sort things out without really sweating. Here are the pitching matchups:

• Monday at Phillies: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (6:40pm ET on Amazon, MLB)

• Tuesday at Phillies: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Aaron Nola (6:40pm ET on YES, TBS)

• Wednesday at Phillies: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Cristopher Sánchez (12:30pm ET on YES, MLBN)

Gil beat Corbin Burnes and Justin Verlander head-to-head earlier this year. Now he’ll try to beat Wheeler, who for my money is the best pitcher in baseball. Throws six pitches regularly, can attack any weakness, doesn’t walk anyone, misses bats, limits hard contact, etc. Sánchez has a 3.05 ERA (3.55 FIP) and a 58.6 GB% and might only be Philadelphia’s fourth best starter behind Nola, Wheeler, and Ranger Suárez. That rotation is a handful. It’s no fluke the Phillies have the best record in baseball.

The trade deadline is 6pm ET on Tuesday, so if the Yankees do make trades on deadline day, they might not have their new players available Tuesday or Wednesday given the quick turnaround (the same applies to the Phillies, of course). MLB’s deadlines are all different times – trade deadline is 6pm ET, non-tender deadline is 8pm ET, etc. – which gives me headaches. Just pick one time! Is that too much to ask?

2. Rapid fire thoughts. Isaac Paredes, who the Yankees were rumored to be pursuing, was somewhat surprisingly traded to the Cubs for Christopher Morel and two pitching prospects over the weekend. The righty pull side homers thing is not a great fit for Wrigley Field, but that ain’t our problem. The Yankees' equivalent to the trade package is something like Ben Rice (bat-first MLB player), Jack Neely (MLB ready reliever), and Cade Smith (pitch data guy and 2023 draftee). Rice and Morel aren’t all that similar – Rice is a plate discipline guy and Morel’s an exit velocity monster – but that’s in the ballpark. Tampa’s in everything must go mode this deadline, huh? … Katie Woo (subs. req’d) says the Yankees inquired about Cardinals utility guy Tommy Edman, who hasn’t played this season following offseason wrist surgery and an ankle injury suffered on his rehab assignment. His rehab is currently on pause. Edman slashed .304/.350/.500 (124 wRC+) as rookie in 2019 and has hit .258/.314/.392 (95 wRC+) in over 2,000 plate appearances since. He is a capable defender everywhere though. I can see it now: 1.5 years of injured Edman for 1.5 years of Nestor Cortes in a lesser version of 1.5 years of injured Harrison Bader for 1.5 years of Jordan Montgomery … Jon Heyman says the Yankees are among the teams with interest in Blake Snell, who struck out 15 batters Saturday (video) and has been lights out since returning from a groin injury earlier this month: 0.75 ERA with a .104/.179/.169 opponent’s line and 35.7 K% in four starts and 24 innings. Snell has a $30M player option for next season and apparently he’s expected to decline it and re-enter free agency. The Giants are 53-55 and 3.5 games out of a postseason spot, and they can’t make Snell the qualifying offer after the season because he already received it last offseason. They could lose him for nothing, so a trade is not far-fetched. Snell has a 5.10 ERA, though the underlying numbers are strong (3.34 FIP and 3.21 xERA), his groin is healthy now, and he has typically been a second half pitcher. The Yankees pursued Snell over the winter (they offered him five years and $150M at one point), so we know they like him. The rotation is looking pretty shaky these days. Maybe there’s a Nestor plus stuff for Snell trade to be made? The Yankees get an expensive bat-missing starter and the Giants get Cortes (who fits their ballpark very well) through next year plus whatever else. That player option could be a sticking point, but it is workable. Hmmm … And finally, Joel Sherman says the Yankees asked about Jack Flaherty, who is far and away the best rental starter available, and have dabbled in the starting pitching trade market in general. Nothing to add here. The Yankees checked in on available starters leading up to the deadline. News at 11.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)