Thoughts before the 2024 trade deadline

The trade deadline is somehow only three days away (6pm ET on Tuesday) and the Yankees, clearly, need help. They need pitching help, they need lineup help, they need general depth, they need all of it. Their shopping list is longer than most World Series hopefuls. It is what it is. I don’t expect them to address every single need at the deadline, but hopefully they can cover most of them.

“We’ll see what up-top does,” Aaron Judge told Bryan Hoch on Wednesday. “As a player, all we can do is go out there and play so they’ll make the right moves and put us in the best position, because we’ve got a great team here. We’re (two games) out of first place in our division, the toughest division in baseball. So I think upstairs, they’ll do their thing and put us where we need to be.”

I expect the Yankees to be active these next 79 hours or so and that’s not blind hope. It’s based on recent history. The Yankees made four trades at the 2021 deadline (Clay Holmes, Andrew Heaney, Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo/Joely Rodríguez) and four trades at the 2022 deadline (Harrison Bader, Andrew Benintendi, Scott Effross, Frankie Montas/Lou Trivino). The last few years tell us that when the Yankees are in it, Cashman will get his team help.

Of course, the majority of those trades didn’t work out, but the Yankees made an effort. They’ll make the effort again this year, I’m sure of it, and with any luck the trades will make the desired impact. Judge did not give a meaningless sound bite. There’s an unspoken agreement that when the players put the team in position to make the postseason, the front office gets them help. Judge gave Cashman a reminder.

The trade market has begun to pick up – A.J. Puk to the Diamondbacks, Randy Arozarena to the Mariners, Zach Eflin to the Orioles, and more since Friday’s post – and things can change very quickly this time of year, so I’m getting this out there now rather than waiting until Tuesday’s post. Here are a few pre-deadline thoughts.

Guy worth mentioning: Matt Chapman

I gotta say, I expected the Giants to have a better roster than this in Year 6 of POBO Farhan Zaidi’s tenure. They had that anomalous 107-win season in 2021, when every single thing went right, and since then it’s 81 wins in 2022, 79 wins in 2023, and a 77-win pace in 2024. Logan Webb is a stud and Patrick Bailey and Heliot Ramos are up-the-middle building blocks, otherwise there are an awful lot of 30-somethings in key roles. Shrug.

Andrew Baggarly (subs. req’d) says Blake Snell is drawing interest and the Giants are listening, and I have to think the same is true of Chapman. He’s having a typical Chapman year at the plate – .232/.326/.406 (111 wRC+) after a 110 wRC+ from 2020-23 – and his hot corner defense remains strong, though it is no longer the best in the game now that he’s in his 30s. The contact quality is standout as always:

The Giants are likely to miss the postseason and Baggarly (subs. req’d) suggests ownership is grouchy about their luxury tax status, and a payroll reduction could be coming next year. Trading Chapman could help there, but he’s also got player options for 2025 and 2026, so he might not be around anyway. That said, trading him now guarantees the money is off the books, and the Giants get something in return.

I don’t think San Francisco will trade Chapman – their infield is abysmal and they need a third baseman long-term – but I don’t think it’s completely out of the question either. There might be a “Chapman for one or two cheap young players who can help the 2025 Giants” trade to be made. The question is how do you handle his contract? How do you value this in a trade?

• 2025: $17M player option ($2M buyout)

• 2026: $18M player option ($3M buyout)

• 2027: $20M mutual option ($1M buyout)

If Chapman’s good, he’s a goner. If he’s bad, you’re stuck with him. The Giants could agree to pay down some future salary if he picks up the player option, but that means giving up more in return. I dunno. It’s a weird situation. Chapman is out of place as a 3-4-5 hitter at this point in his career. As the 6-7 hitter, man he’d be a nice fit. Nice fit in the lineup and a nice fit at third base for the Yankees.

Like I said, I don’t expect the Giants to trade him, so I didn’t think Chapman was worth a full write-up, but I do think he’s worth mentioning. I don’t love the third basemen we know are available (Isaac Paredes and Luis Rengifo) and would prefer Chapman to them. Perhaps Cashman and the Giants will surprise us.

What about an MLB player for MLB player trade?

Two years ago the Yankees swapped Jordan Montgomery for Bader. It was a good ol’ MLB player for MLB player trade rather than the usual MLB player for prospects swap. With so many teams in the race and on the buy/sell fence, I think we’ll see a few (more than a few?) MLB player for MLB player trades this deadline. I mean, Austin Hays was just traded for Seranthony Domínguez (and Cristian Pache). There’s one right there.

Caleb Ferguson strikes me as a candidate for such a move. He has not been good (5.46 ERA and 4.32 FIP) and Tim Hill has jumped him on the lefty reliever depth chart, and if the Yankees do pick up bullpen help at the deadline (seems likely), they’re going to have to open roster spots. Both 26-man and 40-man roster spots. Ferguson certainly hasn’t pitched his way into “he’s not going anywhere” status.

You’re only getting so much for a rental middle reliever. Something like Ferguson for a rental platoon bat could be in the offing, or Ferguson for a platoon bat in the non-tender crosshairs. Ferguson for Connor Joe (137 wRC+ vs. LHP)? Joe is already losing playing time and could get squeezed out entirely if the Pirates add a bat. Ferguson for Adam Duvall (150 wRC+ vs. LHP) if the Braves add an outfielder? Ferguson for Manny Margot (120 wRC+ vs. LHP)? The Yankees have been connected to him a bunch in recent years.

Nestor Cortes is the other candidate for an MLB player for MLB player trade. The Yankees would have to backfill his innings somehow (they traded for Montas to replace Montgomery, remember), at least until Clarke Schmidt returns, but Nestor’s really the only tradeable starter, and the Yankees are not brimming with desirable prospects. Cortes with 1.5 years of control* is a chip that could be cashed.

* The “Montgomery doesn’t project to be in the postseason rotation” logic applies to Cortes, no? Luis Gil has been great, Gerrit Cole is Gerrit Cole, and I have a hard time seeing the Yankees bumping Carlos Rodón or Marcus Stroman to the bullpen in October.

And then there’s Gleyber Torres, who presents a tricky situation. On one hand, he’s having a bad season, even if he has been better the last few weeks. On the other hand, trade Torres and the Yankees have to replace him, which won’t be so easy. There have been Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jonathan India rumors, but would it surprise you if Gleyber outperforms them the rest of the way? It wouldn’t surprise me at all.

I can’t rule out a Torres trade. I just don’t think it’s nearly as simple as the “dump him for prospects anyone else is better” logic that seems pervasive. Ferguson is easy to move. Cortes less so but could be moved because he’s one of the few tradeable big leaguers the Yankees have. Point is, don’t rule out MLB player for MLB player trades this deadline given the current roster and the league’s competitive landscape.

My ideal trade deadline

A few folks have asked for a trade deadline version of my annual Offseason Plan, even a less in-depth one, and while I’d love to do it, I just don’t have the time. The draft, All-Star break, and trade deadline all being within 2-3 weeks of each other is a killer between RAB and CBS. Everyone (writers, front office people, etc.) wants the draft moved back to June except MLB, and MLB’s opinion is the only one that matters.

What the Yankees will do at the deadline, I do not know. All I can tell you is what I hope they do, and given my track record with these things, I hope someone in the front office reads this and does the exact opposite. It’s probably not correct to call this my “ideal deadline,” but this is what I hope to see and think it's within reason.

3B Isaac Paredes: I keep going back and forth on Paredes and Rengifo. I don’t love any of the available third baseman (assuming Chapman won’t happen) but either guy would be an upgrade for the Yankees. I think Rengifo is a safer bet to be at least a competent player who raises the team’s floor. Paredes has a better chance to really move the needle because he is a 30-homer bat. That guy can change a game with one swing.

I’ve just grown so disillusioned with the Yankees and all things hitters. It feels like unless you’re a generational talent or a 6-foot-7 superhuman, you’ll fall short of expectations. DJ LeMahieu just looks old, right? It happens. But Torres and Alex Verdugo are all in what should be their primes (same with Gallo from 2021-22). No one seems to have any idea what kinda hitter Anthony Volpe should be. I don’t really trust the Yankees with hitters.

But that is a me problem, and if Paredes is able to keep up his pulled fly ball approach, man that guy really changes the outlook. It’s not just about getting to October. It’s about putting yourself in the best position once you get there, and because Paredes has shown he can be an impact bat – .249/.354/.468 (135 wRC+) with a 17.3 K% the last two years! – he is my preferred third base target. (Ask me again in 24 hours and I might say Rengifo.)

LHP Tanner Scott: Yimi García was my preferred rental reliever, but he got traded to the Mariners on Friday. With him off the board, Scott is next on my list. He fits the Yankees better, honestly, mostly because he is a power lefty and also because he gets ground balls. García is a fly ball guy and fly balls in the late innings of a close game will make you nervous. The other top rental reliever is Carlos Estévez. I prefer Scott because of the ground ball thing. He’ll drive you nuts with walks, but what reliever doesn’t these days? (Jon Heyman says the Yankees are pursuing Scott, but I don’t know if that’s the usual “they have interest in him” report or a legit “talks are heating up” report.)

RHP Lucas Erceg: I love Erceg, perhaps irrationally. He misses bats, he gets grounders, he suppresses hard contact, he throws very hard. Erceg can have issues with lefties (control problems, not slug problems), otherwise he’s an quality late-inning reliever. This plays:

I think the Yankees need multiple bullpen arms. Guys who can pitch high leverage innings and miss bats. If the plan is to use Luke Weaver in that multi-inning Chad Green/Mike King role, great, but that’s not something he can do 4-5 times in a postseason series. The Yankees need guys who can cover those innings the days Weaver isn’t available, or is only available for three outs. Erceg and Scott (or Estévez) can do that.

Also, Erceg would help the 2025 and beyond Yankees. Ferguson, Clay Holmes, and Tommy Kahnle (and Jonathan Loáisiga) will all be free agents after the season. The priority is boosting the 2024 Yankees, but if you can swing a deal that helps the 2025 and beyond Yankees too, do it. Erceg’s a win now and win later move. Add Scott and Erceg, and you’re looking at this relief crew down the stretch:

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes

• Setup: RHP Lucas Erceg, LHP Tanner Scott

• Multi-inning: RHP Luke Weaver

• Middle: LHP Tim Hill, RHP Tommy Kahnle, revolving door spot

• Long: RHP Michael Tonkin

Holmes shouldn’t be the closer right now, but also he’s entered with the Yankees leading all of five times in the last 30 games (and once with the score tied). The lack of leads is the bigger problem. Scott’s the better pitcher and I'd rather use him in more of a fireman role than saving him for the ninth inning leads that aren’t coming. That’s something to discuss after a trade.

Anyway, that bullpen leaves Nick Burdi, Jake Cousins, Scott Effross, and Ron Marinaccio as the depth guys in Triple-A and Ferguson is … somewhere else. Hill (funky ground ball guy) and Scott (power strikeout guy) would give the Yankees two different looks for lefties. Two bullpen arms feels imperative. Is it too much to ask for three? Erceg + Scott is my preference. If it’s Estévez instead of Scott, that works too.

OF Tommy Pham: A platoon bat for Verdugo is a must and Pham is hitting lefties hard this year (and has historically). Mark Canha might be a more functional piece because he also gives you coverage at first base and is better suited for a part-time role, but Pham’s the better player, so give me him. If Verdugo doesn’t get his act together, you can put Pham in left field on an everyday basis the way you can’t with Canha or Margot or all those other righty platooners. Pham is in-demand and you’ll have to pay everyday player prices for a platoon guy, but so be it. Post-deadline, the lineup would look like this:

1. LF Tommy Pham/Alex Verdugo
2. RF Juan Soto
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. 3B Isaac Paredes
5. C Austin Wells
6. DH Giancarlo Stanton (or Jasson Domínguez if Stanton gets hurt?)
7. 2B Gleyber Torres
8. 1B Ben Rice (or Anthony Rizzo?)
9. SS Anthony Volpe

Still no proper leadoff hitter, though maybe Gleyber really is perking up and can assume that role. That would be neat. Paredes gives you more length through the lineup, as does Stanton’s imminent return, and Pham means you’re not locked into Verdugo. An honest-to-goodness alternative would exist, something that doesn’t now. The Yankees don’t platoon Verdugo because they can’t. They have no one to do it.

As for what the Yankees are giving up, I don’t see any untouchables in the organization right now. I would be bummed to see Domínguez or Gil traded, mostly on a personal and prospect level, but I wouldn’t make either off-limits. Roderick Arias, Chase Hampton, Spencer Jones, George Lombard Jr., Agustin Ramirez, Will Warren … hang a FOR SALE sign on all of ‘em. You’re hugging too tight if you consider them untouchable.

My ideal deadline has the Yankees trading bad players for good players. Those are the best trades. The best realistic deadline has a new third baseman coming in, two late-inning reliever types, and a platoon partner for Verdugo. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable ask. Another starter? Sure, can’t hurt, but it is not a top priority. For better or worse, the Yankees are gonna dance with the starting pitchers they brought.

The players already here need to be better

I was gonna wait until after the deadline to say this, but I might as well say it now. The Yankees can bring in a new third baseman, a few new relievers, a starter, whatever. No matter what they do at the deadline, they need the guys who are already here – Holmes, Rodón, Torres, Verdugo, Volpe, etc. – to perform better. That’s the single biggest reason behind this recent slump. Guys just aren’t performing to the back of their baseball cards.

Friday afternoon I pulled up the 2024 Yankees page on Baseball Reference and Cody Poteet was staring back at me from the No. 12 spot on the team’s top 12 players in WAR. He has made four spot starts and thrown 21 innings.

Seeing Poteet there broke me. Simply put, the Yankees need better players, and that can be accomplished two ways. You can make trades at the deadline, and the guys already here can perform better. I’m not asking for miracles. I don’t need a career year. The Yankees just need Rodón, Torres, Verdugo, et al to perform like they have in the recent past. Just live up to moderate expectations, please.

The Yankees are kinda desperate for help at the deadline. Every night the players on the field tell you the roster is not good enough as currently constructed. The Yankees also need the guys on the team to be better, and for some of them that has been true all year. Bats and relievers. That’s the priority at the deadline. And on top of it, the players who are already here need to get their act together.