July 26th, 2024: Subway Series, Rengifo, Mailbag

The Old Timers’ Game will not return this season. Dan Martin says the Yankees will instead hold an event for the 15th anniversary of the 2009 World Series team. There has not been an Old Timers’ Game since 2019. There was no Old Timers’ Day period from 2020-21 because of the pandemic, and the Yankees cited the health of several Old Timers as the reason for no game in 2022. Last year they held a Q&A session rather than a game. Maybe the Old Timers’ Game will return next year? Maybe. Old Timers’ Day is scheduled for Saturday, Aug. 24th, and we're still waiting on a list of attendees. Alex Rodriguez has to be there, right? He's never been to Old Timers' Day but you can't celebrate the 2009 World Series without him. Anyway, here now is today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. At 10-22 (.313), the Yankees have baseball’s second worst record since June 15th, better than only the 9-25 (.265) White Sox. This is the first time the Yankees have 22 losses in a 32-game span since, well, last July. But before that it was June 2017, and before that it was May 1995. You’d think a bad thing happening in each of the last two seasons after happening twice in the previous 23 seasons would prompt some sorta change, but nope. Business as usual. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Subway Swept

How is a team with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto this unfun? The Yankees lost all four Subway Series games this year – it’s the first time the Mets swept the season series since 2013, and we all know how that season played out – and they were outscored 36-14 in the four games, only one of which was competitive. The Yankees were down at least five runs by the sixth inning in three of the four games.

“We’ve got to play better, okay? We have a really good team that has played shitty of late. We need to be better,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after Wednesday’s loss. ”… Nobody has higher expectations than us in that frickin’ room. We’re pissed off. We’ve got to play better. This has gone on long enough.”

The Yankees gave up six more homers in the two Subway Series games, extending the recent home run problems. They’re up to 56 home runs allowed in their last 28 games, 13 more than any other team during that time. Tyrone Taylor went 3-for-5 with a homer Wednesday and opposing No. 9 hitters now have 15 home runs and a 122 OPS+ against the Yankees. Opposing No. 9 hitters would be the third best hitter on the Yankees. 

The Yankees scored four runs in the two Sunday Series games this week, three on solo homers, and they had 11 hits in the two games. The Mets had 12 extra-base hits. With my own eyes I watched a team with a $313M payroll trot out this top of the lineup Tuesday:

1. DH Jahmai Jones
2. RF Juan Soto
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. 1B J.D. Davis

Jones and Davis went a combined 0-for-6 with four strikeouts and a double play before being removed for pinch-hitters. They took 14 swings and whiffed nine times. That’s who the Yankees chose to bat around Soto and Judge. A waiver claim who never plays and a guy who’s been so bad that he was DFAed by the Athletics, who are a money laundering operation more than a competitive baseball team.

If I didn’t know any better, I’d say that lineup was a cry for help. That Boone deliberately put that lineup on the field to embarrass the front office and show everyone the Yankees need help. But that’s not what happened. Boone is the manager precisely because he won’t do something like that. He’s there to tell the media he liked the at-bats and It’s Right In Front Of Us every night, and not rattle any cages.

Tuesday’s lineup and these now annual midseason collapses stem from one thing: The Yankees flat out suck at developing hitters. Gleyber Torres is by far the best position player to come out of the farm system since Judge, and he might not make it to the end of the season with the Yankees. Here is the complete list of position players to come up through the system this century and reach six years of service time (i.e. free agency) with the Yankees:

• Robinson Canó

• Brett Gardner

• Aaron Judge

• Austin Romine

Gleyber can make it five this year, but that is it. Even with Torres, it’s five players in almost 25 years. Others came close, Gary Sánchez and Kyle Higashioka were traded away one year prior to free agency, but that’s sort of the point, right? Sánchez, similar to Torres, stalled out as a young player after an initial burst of success. The Yankees eventually decided they were better off without Gary.

Sure, you can give the Yankees credit for young hitters who were traded and went on to have long careers, guys like Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson and Alfonso Soriano, but none of those trades are recent. The Yankees positively suck at developing hitters these days, so much so they can't even grow their own role players, and have to rely on the Joneses and Davises of the scrap heap world. 

Everyone – Boone, Judge, Gerrit Cole, etc. – said this extended run of poor play has gone on long enough after Wednesday’s loss, and it’s time to turn it around. But we’ve heard that before. We heard it in 2022, we heard it last year. They never did turn it around. This team has shown zero ability to handle adversity and pick itself up off the mat. The roster changes each year and the glass jaw remains.

The pitching is collapsing, the lineup surrounding Soto and Judge is wholly inadequate, and the Yankees are awful at the little things. They play sloppy, undisciplined, fundamentally unsound, losing baseball. That they haven’t been buried in the AL East race is a minor miracle, but really, it just means the Yankees have blown their shot to bury the Orioles. That team is too good and too deep and too well-positioned to upgrade for me to think their slide will last.

Maybe Giancarlo Stanton’s return will inject some life into the Yankees. Maybe the front office won’t rack up Ls at the trade deadline like they did in 2022. Maybe positive home run regression will come for the pitchers. But this is Year 3 of this. Year 3 of a good-to-great start and then an extended slide into mediocrity. When it happens once, it sucks. Three years in a row means the organization is rotten.

The Yankees as constructed are not good enough to make a deep postseason run. They’re also (probably) not bad enough to miss the postseason entirely, and trading for one year of Soto locks them into going for it. The next few years have a chance to get ugly given the state of the farm system, the state of the player development, and Hal Steinbrenner’s not-so-secret desire to cut payroll. This is an all-in year.

So we have to hope. Hope the trade deadline isn’t a colossal stinker and hope the things that are happening for a third straight year will suddenly stop. That’s not a plan, that’s asking for a miracle, but it’s all the Yankees have at this point. Maybe this will be the year a team full of defeated players with a thousand-yard stare will flip the switch and reverse this wretched stretch of play. That is the current state of Yankees baseball.

“Nothing I can say matters,” Boone told Mark Sanchez in perhaps the most self-aware moment of his managerial career. “We got to do it. I’m confident we will. I know we will pull out of this. But that’s all that is right now, is me saying it to you.”

Miscellany

Luis Gil on Tuesday: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K in his first start in nine days (video). He loaded the bases with no outs for the 1-2-3 hitters and escaped with just one run allowed (on a HBP). Gil has become a slider monster these last three starts. He threw 40 sliders and 31 fastballs Tuesday!

We have Luis Severino to thank for that, apparently. “I showed him how to manipulate (the slider), and after that, it seems like he’s been really nasty,” Severino told Hoch. Gil said he took Severino’s advice to Matt Blake, they worked on it between starts at some point recently, and now it’s his most used pitch. Is he throwing too many sliders? Too early to say. This is quite the midseason change in pitch selection though … Michael Tonkin gave up the game-losing homer Tuesday and has allowed runs in five of his last nine appearances. Hopefully it’s just a rough patch and he snaps out of it soon, but with these journeyman waiver claim types, there’s always a chance the clock has struck midnight. If it has, then it has. The Yankees have already gotten way more out of Tonkin than anyone expected … And finally, I stumbled across an insane stat: Yankees’ No. 4 hitters have 49 RBI and their No. 9 hitters have 50 RBI. We know RBI is not the best way to evaluate hitters, but good freaking lord. How does the No. 9 spot have more RBI than the spot directly behind Soto and Judge? Judge and Soto rank 1-2 in OBP and no one is within 30 points of them! This team is going to make me shut down the blog and walk into the sea.

Injury updates

Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) continued his rehab work this week and it wouldn’t shock me to see him in the lineup Friday night. The Yankees say they’re going to make a decision about a rehab assignment this weekend. One way or the other, we should get word on Stanton’s next step soon … Clarke Schmidt (lat) came through Tuesday’s bullpen session in good shape and will do it again Saturday. He’ll throw at least one more bullpen after that before the Yankees decide what’s next, meaning another bullpen or facing hitters in live batting practice … Jasson Domínguez (oblique) hit against live pitching in Tampa and joined Triple-A Scranton earlier this week. He'll begin playing rehab games “within a week,” Boone told Hoch on Tuesday. El Marciano could return sometime in mid August, I guess? Good news either way. I’m sure it’s a complete coincidence this came out right before the trade deadline … Cody Poteet (triceps) was scheduled to throw a 20-25 pitch bullpen Thursday. It will be his second time throwing off a mound … Ian Hamilton (lat) is playing catch and that’s it. He’s yet to throw off a mound, so it’ll be another few weeks. Not gonna lie, I forgot about Hamilton … Brock Selvidge was placed on the Double-A injured list earlier this week. I assume it’s the same biceps injury that kept him out of the Futures Game. Right before the trade deadline? Bad timing … Caleb Durbin (wrist) popped up in minor league box scores this week, so he’s on his way back. I’m not sure he can help the Yankees in any real way this season, but at least he’s getting healthy.

Up next

A pretty important three-game series in Boston. The Yankees are only three up in the loss column on the Red Sox for a Wild Card spot. I don’t mean the top Wild Card spot. I mean a Wild Card spot in general. The Yankees are three up in the loss column on a postseason spot and they will play three games against the first team on the outside looking in this weekend. The pitching matchups: 

• Friday at Red Sox: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Brayan Bello (7pm ET on YES)

• Saturday at Red Sox: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Kutter Crawford (7pm ET on FOX)

• Sunday at Red Sox: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Tanner Houck (7pm ET on ESPN)

Third time in seven weeks the Yankees and Red Sox will be on Sunday Night Baseball. It’s too much, man. They’ll play again on Sunday, Sept. 15th, but that’s an afternoon game because the Yankees have to fly out to the West Coast afterward. The Yankees are 2-30 on Sunday Night Baseball the last three years. That’s not true, I have no idea what their Sunday Night Baseball record is, but 2-30 sounds about right, no?

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Luis Rengifo. The trade deadline is only five days away. I thought there would be more activity this week, or at least more rumors, but it’s been pretty quiet. Too many teams are on the buy/sell fence and too many executives are scared to make difficult decisions. There will be trades before the deadline. Always are. The seal will break eventually.

Among other things, the Yankees need an infielder at the deadline, preferably at third base. They also need a legit bat too, right? Not another 7-8-9 hitter type. A leadoff hitter or cleanup hitter, or, ideally, one of each. One thing at a time though. Let the Yankees get one bat before we start asking where the second bat is coming from. The lineup around Juan Soto and Aaron Judge is thin and must be improved.

“We’re gonna be open-minded to a lot of different things,” Brian Cashman told Gary Phillips earlier this month. “I’m not going to point out anything specific, but we definitely have areas to improve upon, and we’ll do our best to do so. My deadline plan is to see if we can run into as much that can improve our team as possible.”

One of the most obvious infield trade candidates is Angels super utility man Luis Rengifo, who returned from a wrist injury Tuesday. The Angels are terrible and are certain to trade their rental relievers before the deadline. Rengifo is controllable beyond this year though, so keeping him is plausible, even if it isn’t the best idea. Seems like now is the time to trade him.

Rengifo, 27, is enjoying a career year, slashing .315/.358/.442 (126 wRC+) with six homers and 22 steals in 269 plate appearances before the wrist injury. Every team could use a hitter like that, and gosh, wouldn’t it be nice to plop that guy in the leadoff spot ahead of Soto and Judge? I’d say so. Let’s dig into Rengifo as a possible trade deadline target.

Background

Rengifo is no stranger to trades and trade rumors. He originally signed with the Mariners for $360,000 as an international amateur free agent out of Venezuela in March 2014. Since then, Rengifo has been traded twice and almost traded one other time. His travels:

Aug. 2017: Traded with current Yankees’ 40-man roster member Anthony Misiewicz to the Rays for spare parts Ryan Garton and Mike Marajama. Rengifo was in Low-A at the time.

March 2018: Traded to the Angels as the player to be named for C.J. Cron. Rengifo opened the 2018 season in High-A.

Feb. 2020: The Angels and Dodgers agreed to a trade that would have sent Rengifo to the Dodgers for Joc Pederson, Ross Stripling, and prospect Andy Pages. It was a 3-for-1 salary dump for the Dodgers, who were still working through the Mookie Betts deal. Angels owner Arte Moreno got tired of waiting and personally pulled the plug on the trade. Rengifo made his MLB debut the previous year.

Two trades, one almost trade, and countless trade rumors. Rengifo’s been through this before, though I imagine he still gets anxious this time of year. I know I would. Relocating and changing teams midseason can’t be fun, even if you go from a bad team to a World Series contender.

Offense

Rengifo’s 122 wRC+ is a career high and continues a positive trend. He’s been better in 2024 than he was in 2023, he was better in 2023 than he was in 2022, and he was better in 2022 than he was in 2021. A hitter getting better as he enters his late 20s? What a concept. (Take notes, Mr. Verdugo.) Here are Rengifo’s last few seasons:

The .343 BABIP stands out and is driving Rengifo’s success. His swinging strike rate and HR/FB rate are in line with the last few years, so he’s not making more contact and he’s not hitting the ball out of the park more often. Rengifo is just finding grass more often with his balls in play. At first glance, this has “hits .309 before the trade and .260 after the trade” written all over it.

That said, Rengifo warrants further investigation. He’s a switch-hitter, so we have to dig in from each side of the plate. Here’s the basic under-the-hood look:

Rengifo has only 53 plate appearances as a righty batter this season, so I don’t want to make too much of those exit velocity and chase rate numbers. Historically, he’s been league average-ish on the heavy side of the platoon and excellent on the light side of the platoon. That equals an above-average hitter. You’d rather the opposite be true, you’d rather be great as a lefty and average as a righty just because you hit left-handed much more often, but what Rengifo does works. Especially for the 2024 Yankees, right? They need help against lefties.

The ground ball rate spike this season is significant. Rengifo is running a .124 ISO this year – that’s extra bases per at-bat – after a .172 ISO from 2022-23. His power output is down even though his HR/FB rate is in line with the last few years. He’s simply hitting fewer fly balls. Also, a career high 55.4 GB% (47.0% from 2022-23) and a career high .343 BABIP (.290 from 2022-23) usually don’t go together. Rengifo’s splits:

Rengifo’s BABIP on fly balls and line drives has more or less held steady around the league averages, but his BABIP on grounders has shot way up despite no corresponding increase in exit velocity. He is pulling fewer grounders, so maybe there is a conscious effort to go the other way more? But also, going from a 53.2% pulled ground rate in 2022 to 46.3% in 2024 isn’t that big of a decline, you know?

This is the second straight year Rengifo’s BABIP on ground balls has increased, and not by a small margin either. That’s at least a little interesting. There’s a chance it’s small sample size noise – Rengifo’s hit 123 ground balls this year and not all from the same side of the plate, adding another layer of randomness – but some guys are good ground ball hitters. They do exist. Maybe Rengifo is becoming one? (Trea Turner is the ground ball BABIP king.)

This does not make me feel any better about the whole “hits .309 before the trade and .260 after the trade” thing, but Rengifo doesn’t have to continue hitting .309 to be a valuable player. Getting even 2022-23 Rengifo would be quite helpful. That’s still a .264/.315/.436 (108 wRC+) line from a position where the Yankees are getting close to nothing. And he crushes lefties. The Yankees need someone who does that.

It is reasonable to be skeptical about the sustainability of Rengifo’s season to date, and whichever team trades for him will almost certainly be buying high. We are still talking about a switch-hitter with some power who has been at least an average hitter the last three years, and is entering what should be his prime years. Rengifo is an arrow up player. As up as this year’s slash line suggests? Probably not, but up.

Defense

For all intents and purposes, Rengifo is a second baseman with experience at many other positions. He’s played 60% of his career innings at second, 20% at third, 15% at short, and the other 5% floating around the outfield. Second base is his most familiar position, but, according to the numbers, third base is his best position. The Yankees have the greatest need at the hot corner, so here are those numbers:

• 2022: +3 DRS and -2 OAA (250.2 innings)

• 2023: +1 DRS and -2 OAA (146.1 innings)

• 2024: -1 DRS and -3 OAA (338 innings)

Rengifo’s at -6 DRS and -11 OAA at second base those three years in roughly twice as many innings. I haven’t watched enough Angels baseball to form an eye test opinion of Rengifo at any position, so I’m not sure what more I can add here. The numbers don’t like Rengifo at any position, but they aren’t big samples, and if you let him settle in at one spot, maybe he’ll improve. Shrug. 

Baserunning

The Yankees are painfully slow and Rengifo is one of those guys who’s not a burner, but is a good baserunner. This year’s sprint speed (26.9 ft/s) and home-to-first time (4.37 seconds) are league average. That’s his average home-to-first time, I should note. Rengifo is a switch-hitter and lefties get out of the box quicker than righties, but we don’t have home-to-first splits. Here’s more:

• 2022: 6-for-8 (75%) stealing bases and 75% extra-base taken rate

• 2023: 6-for-10 (60%) stealing bases and 55% extra-base taken rate

• 2024: 22-for-29 (79%) stealing bases and 54% extra-base taken rate

Rengifo had 18 steals in his big league career coming into this season, and now he’s already at 22. What gives? Ron Washington. When the Angels named Washington their new manager this past offseason, he said he wanted them to be more aggressive on the bases, and they are running wild. The Angels have already stolen 89 bases this year. They stole 72 all of last year and 77 the year before that, and it's not like the roster's been overhauled.

“I want us to be a tremendous baserunning team,” Washington told Rhett Bollinger in Spring Training. “When you talk about baserunning, when you talk about stolen bases, the guys that can steal will get an opportunity to learn more about stealing. And the guys that can run the bases are going to get more opportunities to run the bases.”

Rengifo’s stolen base uptick is an organizational thing, not necessarily something he did on his own. He’s always been a good baserunner despite the pre-2024 lack of steals though. A very high extra-base taken rate and +3.4 runs on the bases from 2021-23, per FanGraphs. This year he’s at +1.5 runs already. He won’t blind you with speed, but Rengifo does run the bases well. He’ll help the Yankees there.

Injury history

Well, Rengifo just returned from right wrist inflammation earlier this week, and that’s kind of a big deal. He only missed 19 days, so it wasn’t that big a deal, but those wrist injuries suffered on swings always make me nervous. The wrist is the latest of several injuries that have sidelined Rengifo throughout his career. Here is the injury history:

• Sept. 2019: Season ended by a broken left hamate.

• Sept. 2020: Missed 10 days with a right hamstring strain.

• Sept. 2023: Season ended by a ruptured left biceps.

• July 2024: Missed 19 days with right wrist inflammation.

An unfortunate knack for late season injuries. Is there something to that (wears down late in the year?) or is it just a coincidence? Who knows. Rengifo has not missed many games because his injuries were all late in the season, but a broken hamate and a blown out biceps are serious injuries that required surgery. There’s nothing chronic here. Nothing that pops up year after year. Rengifo will get hurt though.

Contract status

Rengifo will make $4.4M this season, so pick him up at the deadline and it’s roughly $1.5M in salary plus another $1.65M for the 110% luxury tax rate. I’d call that affordable. Rengifo will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2025. He's a 1.5-year pickup. He’s also out of minor league options, which I consider irrelevant. As I say every time in these trade target write-ups, if you have to think about sending him to Triple-A, you have bigger problems than roster flexibility.

What would it take?

When I wrote up Ryan McMahon and Isaac Paredes, I had a hard time coming up with trade reference points because they have so many years of control remaining, and good players usually don’t get traded when they’re that far away from free agency. Rengifo is a much different case. Guys who come with 1.5 years/two postseasons of control get traded all the time. Here are a few notables:

• Luis Arraez (Marlins to Padres): Traded for the previous year’s first round pick (OF Dillon Head), a team top 10 prospect (OF Jakob Marsee), a team top 20 prospect (1B Nathan Martorella), and a salary offset (RHP Woo-Suk Go).

• Harrison Bader (Cardinals to Yankees): Traded for 1.5 years of a good MLB starter (LHP Jordan Montgomery).

• Matt Chapman (Athletics to Blue Jays): Traded for the previous year’s first round pick (RHP Gunnar Hoglund), a team top 10 prospect (IF Kevin Smith), a team top 30 prospect (LHP Zach Logue), and an up/down reliever (LHP Kirby Snead).

• Joey Gallo (Rangers to Yankees): Traded with a rental reliever (LHP Joely Rodríguez) for a team top 10 prospect (IF Ezequiel Duran), a team top 20 prospect (IF Josh Smith), and two team top 30 prospects (OF Trevor Hauver, RHP Glenn Otto).

The Bader trade is an outlier but I included it because we have no idea what the Angels are thinking. Would you be surprised if they trade Rengifo for MLB help and try to win in 2025? I wouldn’t. This is the team that traded top prospects for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López last deadline, then salary dumped them on waivers a month later. The Angels are unpredictable and nonsensical. They are the AL Rockies. 

The Arraez, Chapman, and Gallo trades are all similar. It’s a four-player package with at least three legit prospects. The Marlins are paying Arraez’s salary and the Rangers paid Gallo’s salary, so they received more in return. I don’t think Rengifo is on Arraez’s, Chapman’s, or Gallo’s level, but that does not matter. He’s in demand. The bidding war will determine the price, not past trades involving similar players.

Also, you don’t have to try too hard to see a Rengifo trade turning into something larger. The Yankees could try to get rental reliever Carlos Estévez in the trade too. Maybe even buy low starter Reid Detmers. These big one-stop shop trades don't happen often but they are possible. I mean, Rengifo plus Estévez is not that far out there, right? With the caveat that the Angels are unpredictable, I think three non-tippy top prospects for Rengifo is the starting point.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Yes even with what we can reasonably assume is a forthcoming BABIP crash back to Earth. The bar at third base is on the floor – Yankees third basemen are hitting .228/.290/.347 (77 wRC+) with +0.0 WAR – and even 2022-23 Rengifo would be a significant upgrade. You’re going to have to pay 2024 Rengifo prices to get him, but that’s life. And hey, there’s always a chance Rengifo keeps this up all year. It happens.

McMahon’s apparently unavailable and the price for Paredes figures to be high, and you know what? I trust Rengifo to be more productive moving forward than Paredes. Paredes is so reliant on pulling fly balls. He has to thread a fine needle and it ain’t easy. Rengifo is not a defensive wiz or anything, but I think he’s a more well-rounded hitter than Paredes, and he provides more on the bases. He'll likely be cheaper given the less team control too.

The Yankees can’t get caught waiting for the perfect player. Rengifo is an offensive upgrade and, frankly, no worse defensively than what the Yankees are currently getting at the hot corner. They would also have him next year, when he’ll need a second and third baseman. I’m in. You’re buying high, but that’s the market. The trade could be expanded to include Estévez too.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Got a couple quick rumors to cycle through. First, the Yankees have interest in a reunion with Chad Green, reports Jon Morosi. I answered a mailbag question about Greenie a few weeks ago. Love the guy, he was a damn good Yankee, but he has by far the lowest strikeout and whiff rates of his career this year, he had more arm trouble a few weeks ago, and he’s owed $10.5M next year. There’s always a price where it makes sense, but gosh, I dunno about this one. The Yankees got the best years of Green’s career. Unless the Blue Jays are willing to eat money, I don’t love the idea of trading for 1.5 likely decline years … Second, the Yankees have interest in Jonathan India, according to Jorge Castillo. India is having a very strong season (.271/.374/.415 and 121 wRC+), though he’s an atrocious defensive second baseman (-30 DRS and -22 OAA for his career!), and his weak arm means third base is probably a stretch. He’s only 27 and is under team control through 2026, so long-term, India makes sense. Unless the Yankees flip Gleyber Torres elsewhere at the deadline, it would be a square peg/round hole situation the rest of this year … And third, the Yankees have interest in Rich Hill, per Pete Abraham. Rich Hill! Earlier this year the 44-year-old said his plan was to stay in shape and join a team for the stretch run (he’s throwing off a mound) and I guess the Yankees want him, at least to some extent. Hill had a 5.41 ERA (5.44 FIP) in 146.1 innings for the Pirates and Padres in 2023. Hard to see him as an upgrade over any of the current starters, so maybe as a reliever? Then again, Hill’s done some improbable things in his career, so who knows.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Zach asks: I know they won’t trade Soto. But as a hypothetical, what sort of return could they get? Enough to jump start the farm system via a realistic view of this group’s likelihood to win, can still sign him in the offseason. What teams/prospects etc. I’m sure everyone big would be interested, he’s Juan Freaking Soto.

It would be less than you think but still a lot. I mean, look what the Yankees gave up for a full year of Soto. Two years of a good MLB starter in Mike King, a top 50-ish prospect in Drew Thorpe, and spare parts. It wasn’t a franchise-altering haul. Teams are not inclined to pay big for 2-3 months of a star player, even a generational talent like Soto. Here are a few recent examples:

• Bryce Harper (Nationals to Astros): Traded for a top 75 global prospect (RHP Josh James), a top five team prospect (RHP J.B. Bukauskas), a top 20 team prospect (IF Abraham Toro) and two non-top 30 team prospects (3B Randy Cesar, LHP Kent Emmanuel).

• Manny Machado (Orioles to Dodgers): Traded for top 50 global prospect (OF Yusniel Diaz), a top 10 team prospect (RHP Dean Kremer), two top 30 team prospects (IF Rylan Bannon, RHP Zach Pop), and an up/down utility guy (IF Breyvic Valera).

• J.D. Martinez (Tigers to Diamondbacks): Traded for a top 10 team prospect (IF Dawel Lugo) and two top 20 team prospects (IF Sergio Alcantara, IF Jose King).

Yes, Harper was “traded.” The Nationals and Astros agreed to a trade at the 2018 deadline, but Nationals owner Ted Lerner vetoed it. Washington made Harper the qualifying offer after the season and forfeited the compensation draft pick to sign Patrick Corbin. Corbin’s contract has been a disaster in a vacuum, but he was important to their 2019 World Series win. Flags fly forever, baby.

The best player in those three trade packages is Kremer, a quintessential No. 4 starter. They’re all quantity over quality (Diaz was trending down that season). These trades suggest the Yankees could expect a lot of players in return for Soto, but not a top tier prospect or difference-making young big leaguer. They could restock the farm system, and hey, sometimes you need to do that.

Every deadline and trade market is different though. Soto is not just a great player, he is a balance of power player. He can swing a division race or a postseason series all by himself. Imagine what he could do to the AL West race? The Phillies are in the market for an outfielder and might never have a better chance to win the World Series than this year with the Braves having a down year, the Dodgers having holes, etc. Maybe the Phillies decide to really go for it and pay big like the Cubs did for Aroldis Chapman for 2016.

I don’t think the Yankees should trade Soto. As bad as they’ve been lately – and they’ve been awful – they are still right there in the AL East, and is there a truly great team in the AL? Not right now, I don’t think. I say keep him and then hand him a blank check after the season*. If the Yankees make Soto available, there would be a ton of interest, but I think we would be surprised at how relatively underwhelming the return is.

* In 2030, Soto will be the same age Aaron Judge was when he signed his extension. He was so many peak years remaining! Superstars in their mid-20s are the best investment in the sport. Sign him and figure out the roster around him.

Bill asks: How about old friend Andujar for left field? 

Miguel Andujar has long been a personal favorite and I’m bummed about the way his time with the Yankees ended (hurt his shoulder diving into third base three games into 2019, then getting Wally Pipped by Gio Urshela). Miggy Missiles hasn’t played anything more than a handful of games at third base since his AL Rookie of the Year runner-up season in 2018, so he’s essentially a full-time left fielder now.

And the Yankees need left field help, right? Alex Verdugo’s been bad the last few months and, at minimum, the Yankees need to get him a righty hitting platoon partner. Andujar hits right-handed, so there you go. He fits. Going into Thursday’s game, he was slashing .302/.324/.420 (114 wRC+) with four homers and Miggy-esque strikeout (14.6%) and walk (3.3%) rates in the 50 games since returning from Spring Training meniscus surgery.

Andujar is my guy, but I don’t like him as a fit for the current roster because he’s yet another mostly singles hitter who is station-to-station on the bases. The Yankees have enough players who sell out for contact and aren’t speedy. Andujar would be more of the same. On paper, yes, he fits as a platoon partner for Verdugo, and he’ll probably come super cheap. I’d like the Yankees to aim higher though. Still love you, Miggy.

Phil asks: What about Brent Rooker? I don't care where he fits at this point. Maybe DH, maybe LF, maybe he can miss backhanding balls at 3B the same way DJ does but actually provide value with the bat. Would the A’s be open to selling high? Could we afford him with 3+ years of service time left? Is he worth Spencer Jones? I'll hang up and listen. 

Rooker is an awful defensive outfielder, one of the very worst in baseball, but at this point I would live with the glove to get the bat. I’m gonna claw my eyes out by the end of the season if I have to continue watching an offense this bad around Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Rooker is showing last year’s breakout was no fluke: .290/.369/.574 (166 wRC+) with 23 homers going into Thursday. The contact quality matches too:

The downside is Rooker whiffs excessively (32.1 K% and 15.7% swinging strikes the last two years) and is essentially a DH, but he’s a better hitter and a better player than Alex Verdugo, and you can always sub him out for defense late. He is more than qualified to hit cleanup behind Soto and Judge. Rooker’s one of the game’s best hitters, so yes, he’d help the Yankees.

Rooker will play the entire season at age 29 and he’ll remain under team control through 2027. I’m sure the A’s are willing to trade him and he won’t come cheap, but I also don’t think he’ll be as pricey as the slash line would lead you to believe. Teams have stopped paying top dollar for DH types. The Pirates traded two years of Josh Bell for two iffy prospects, the Yankees got nothing for Luke Voit, etc.

My guess is it would not take Spencer Jones to get Rooker, but also, I wouldn’t consider Jones off-limits. Rooker is far more likely to be an above average player from 2024-27, which is basically all that’s left of Judge’s (and Gerrit Cole’s) prime. He’d help the Yankees immensely. The Guardians, Mariners, Orioles, and Pirates all make sense for Rooker, among others. An imperfect fit given the defense, but I’d take him. Gimme the bat.

Mike asks: If the Yankees aren't going to bat Soto or Judge leadoff, is there really any better option on the roster right now than Wells?

Austin Wells has been the Yankees’ third best hitter the last several weeks, so from a “bat your three best hitters in the 1-2-3 spots” perspective, yeah, hit him leadoff. He sees a lot of pitches and works the count, and he can give you a quick 1-0 lead if the pitcher makes a mistake. Wells won’t steal you any bases, but that’s fine. No need to risk making outs on the bases in front of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

Given the current personnel, yeah, Wells is the best leadoff option among non-Judge/Sotos. He’s also the best cleanup hitter option too, and the Yankees need someone to make the other team pay when Soto and Judge get on base. I think the best lineup has Soto, Judge, and Wells in the 1-2-3 spots in that order. Since the Yankees will not hit Soto or Judge leadoff, then yes, Wells is the best leadoff option by virtue of being the next best hitter in the team. Honestly though, I think the Yankees need him in the No. 4 spot more than the No. 1 spot. Soto and Judge get on base so much and someone has to drive them in. Way, way too many rallies die after Judge sees four pitches nowhere close to the zone.

Brian asks: Is there a way to see where Verdugo ranks in ground outs to second this year? Or ground outs to first or second? Does he lead MLB?

You can slice the data several different ways and no matter what, Alex Verdugo comes out on top. Here are a few select leaderboards:

GB to 1B
1. Alex Verdugo: 41
2. Vinnie Pasquantino: 33
3. Luis Arraez: 33

GB to 2B
1. Alex Verdugo: 58
2. Luis Arraez: 56
3. Corbin Carroll: 54

GB to right side (includes grounders that get through for hits)
1. Alex Verdugo: 105
2. Luis Arraez: 98
3. Andrés Giménez: 96

No hitter in baseball puts the ball on the ground to the right side of the field more than Verdugo. The other day the YES broadcast brought up Verdugo having an absurdly low .180-something BABIP from whatever date and said it could be a sign of bad luck, but come on. Verdugo rolls over on everything and puts in the bare minimum effort running to first. The low BABIP is earned. It’s not bad luck. (To be fair, Michael Kay acknowledged that, that Verdugo’s not hitting liners at defenders and getting unlucky.)

Paul asks: Which pitchers from the past do you think would benefit most from modern technology and training methods? Would Mo be even more dominant? Would someone like David Cone, who is really into analytics, move from really good to HOF? 

Cone definitely jumps to mind. He was excellent at manipulating the ball and he’s really into analytics. I’m guessing a guy that talented, that thoughtful and curious, and that determined would have made the most of new age pitching tools. Cone fell off the Hall of Fame ballot in his first year of eligibility in 2009 but I think he’d get more support now as a +61.6 WAR guy. Not hard to think analytics would have helped him get across the Cooperstown finish line. Cone was born 40 years too early.

Bret Saberhagen was south of Hall of Fame caliber but is close enough to borderline that a little analytical boost could have helped him and his curveball get into Cooperstown. Orel Hershiser maybe? As good as Pedro Martinez was, imagine what pitching nerds these days could do with him and his freakishly long fingers. Guys like lights out stuff who fell short of expectations, like Kris Benson and Ben McDonald, might've had a better chance maybe not at the Hall of Fame, but at being above average starters.

What about Dave Righetti? He won Rookie of the Year as a starter, then two years later the Yankees put him in the bullpen because Goose Gossage left as a free agent. A guy like that would have remained a starter these days, and maybe new age pitching tools get him to another level. Phil Hughes had a funky arm action and maybe there was a way to better use it. Hughes retired after 2018, which wasn’t that long ago, but the prime of his career was 2009-14. Pitching analytics have come so far in such a long time. 

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)