July 23rd, 2024: Cole, Volpe, LeMahieu, Rodón, Holmes, Wells, Paredes

Ten years ago yesterday the Yankees traded for Chase Headley. He got to Yankee Stadium in the middle of that night’s game (video), then looped a walk-off single to shallow left in the 14 inning (video). Talk about an unusually memorable debut. Headley hit .262/.371/.393 (123 wRC+) in 58 games after the trade. I hope the Yankees get that kinda production from third base after this year's trade deadline, whoever they have playing there. Here now is today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. It ain’t much, but the Yankees split four games with the Rays this past weekend. Combine that with the series win in Baltimore before the All-Star break, and this is the first time the Yankees did not lose two consecutive series since May 29th to June 6th, when they took two of three from the Angels and then swept the Giants and Twins. You gotta start somewhere, right? Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.

Cole’s cutter

The first inning was a bit of a grind, but Gerrit Cole turned in his second straight strong start Friday: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K, 1 HR (video). He looks like himself now after a few rocky outings off the injured list. The 4.60 ERA (4.74 FIP) through six starts certainly isn’t Cole-like. He’s allowed no more than one run in three of his last four starts though, and things are trending up.

“I had a little bit of everything working,” Cole told Bryan Hoch. “Once we got a lead, we started attacking the zone. It was pretty good. There were a few deep counts after the third. I’d like to get those outs a little bit more efficiently, but for the most part it was pretty good.”

Whatever the reason, Cole has featured his cutter a ton six starts into his season. I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised, Cole used his cutter more and more as last season went on, but now it’s basically his No. 2 pitch. Ignore March 2024 in this graph. That’s a single 34-pitch Spring Training start. In the regular season, Cole’s cutter usage has been way up:

The cutter hasn’t been effective – .308 AVG and .462 SLG against! – though the spin and movement and all that are good. Let’s see how the cutter plays in a larger sample. I don’t have anything more to add here. I just wanted to note the increased cutter usage. It’s Gerrit Cole. I am happy to defer to him and assume there’s a good reason he’s so cutter heavy now, and the pitch will get better results soon.

Volpe goes deep (!)

For the first time since May 16th, Anthony Volpe hit a home run Monday (video), and really, that’s not even the most amazing thing. The home run was the first time he pulled a fly ball since June 20th. I know the All-Star break was in there, but good gravy, over a month ago! Volpe has spent just about the entire season slapping balls to right because he’s selling out for contact. A pulled homer. What a concept.

“I like when he pulls it in the seats like that,” Aaron Boone joked with Gary Phillips after the game. “He’s an evolving player. He’s making adjustments, and these are things that are going to serve him well as he becomes a more complete offensive player. But I like where he’s trending the last several days after really searching for it a little bit. So where the ball goes, I don’t give a rip. I just want him to have more quality at-bats, tough at-bats, and I feel like he’s starting to feel it again a little bit.”

Volpe had a very productive series against Tampa (6-for-14 with two doubles and a homer) and he didn’t completely change his approach and pull the ball a ton. The homer and a soft single Monday were the only balls he yanked to left field. Everything else was up the middle and to right field (i.e. business as usual). Way too soon to say if there’s an approach change here, or just the ball finding grass for one weekend.

The Yankees can’t help themselves with Volpe. I hope a great series doesn’t result in them rushing him back into the leadoff spot. Just let the kid breathe a little bit. As much as I’ve talked about trading for a third baseman and a platoon left fielder, the Yankees need guys already on the team to hit more than they have, Volpe included. Good weekend. May the homer floodgates open now that the monkey is off his back.

Too many homers

You wouldn’t know it from this past weekend, but the Rays are not a home run hitting team. They entered the second half with 86 homers, fourth fewest in baseball, and yet they had back-to-back four-homer games Saturday and Sunday . They had one four-homer game all season prior to that. Tampa hit 10 homers in the four-game series.

"The long ball has hurt us. Slug has hurt us," Boone told Hoch on Monday. "We've got to do a better job keeping the ball in the ballpark."

Home runs are killing the Yankees right now. It seems like every single mistake (and even some pitches that aren’t mistakes) winds up in the seats. It’s not hit off the wall for a double, it’s not fouled off, it’s in the seats and runs are on the board. The Yankees have allowed 50 – 50! – home runs in their last 26 games. That dates back to June 20th. The most homers allowed since then:

1. Yankees: 50
2. Orioles: 41
3. Brewers: 41
4. Several tied with 38 (including the Guardians)

Maybe it’s not so bad seeing how a bunch of first place teams have also allowed a lot of home runs since June 20th, but the Yankees are far ahead of the pack here, and the offense doesn’t give them enough of a margin of error to survive this. In the first 76 games, the Yankees had a 0.89 HR/9 and an 8.9% HR/FB. In the last 26 games, it’s 2.01 HR/9 and 19.7% HR/FB. Their home run rate has more than doubled.

We know what has happened (more homers allowed). The why is more difficult to answer. Part of it is plain ol’ regression, right? A team that plays its home games in Yankee Stadium isn’t gonna sustain a sub-1.00 HR/9 and sub-10.0% HR/FB all year. But also, Carlos Rodón and Marcus Stroman have had a rough last few weeks, Cole struggled initially, and the bullpen has had issues all year. It’s not all bad luck.

I suppose the good news is 58% of the runs the Yankees have allowed in these last 26 games have come on homers, so keep the ball in the park, and life gets easier. How do they do that? That’s up to Matt Blake and the front office and the pitchers themselves to figure out. The Yankees need more strikeouts, yes, but somehow the long ball has become their biggest problem. It’s cost them dearly the last few weeks.

On Siri’s home run trots

I can’t bring myself to care about Jose Siri’s slow home run trots. If he wants to pimp a home run with his team losing, then let him look like a dope. The best response is winning. I was worried Rodón would plunk him next time up Monday – Rodón seems exactly like the kinda pitcher who’d do that – and get himself suspended and put the Yankees in a pitching bind, but he didn’t, thankfully.

Juan Soto made sure to rub Siri’s nose in it. He hit two home runs Monday (video) after Siri went deep, and took a 37-second home run trot (!) on the first. That is … excessive lol. The MLB average home run trot is about 23 seconds and Siri took around 30 seconds to get around the bases. Who cares, man. Keep the ball in the ballpark if you don’t like it. Otherwise just let him look dumb when he does it and his team is losing. 

"I don't know what (Siri) was doing, actually. I just don't know,” Soto told Hoch. “For me, I just, you know, hot weather. Tough day. Tried to save the hammies and make sure I go nice and easy.”

Miscellany

DJ LeMahieu hit a home run (video)! He got a cement mixer in the middle of the plate and the ball landed in the first row, but a home run is a home run. Shame on us for doubting him. LeMahieu’s back. The Yankees don’t need a third baseman at the deadline … Excellent start for Rodón on Monday: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 10 K, 1 HR (video). After all that talk about using his fastball less, he threw it 54% of the time, his most since May 24th in San Diego. Whatever. The Yankees needed a good start Monday. It was the first time someone other than Cole or Luis Gil completed six innings since Nestor Cortes against the Red Sox on July 5th. It was the first time Rodón completed six innings since June 10th in Kansas City. He is one of several Yankees who have to be better in the next two months than they were in the last two months … Clay Holmes, who tends to lose the plate when he goes too long without pitching, has not appeared in a game since last Sunday. The Yankees asked Luke Weaver to throw a second inning Sunday rather than use Holmes, and they could’ve used him Monday too, but nope. Eight days since he last pitched. Boone is so bad at keeping his players prepared. How is this putting Holmes in the best position to succeed? I guess I shouldn’t worry about it. It’s not like Holmes pitches exclusively in close games or anything … Cortes had his first bad start at home and it was a disaster: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 1 K, 3 HR. He got way too cute with the bottom of the order. He walked Alex Jackson (1 wRC+!) to start the third inning, and he came around to open the scoring. He then walked Taylor Walls (55 wRC+) with two outs in the fourth, and that was followed by a three-run homer. Cortes got quick two-strike counts on both guys and then nibbled away, and walked them. Weak stuff, Nestor … Things are getting ugly for Ben Rice, who is 4-for-44 (.091) with 21 strikeouts since the three-homer game. The Rays and Orioles and Rays again got him to chase out of the zone, which is not a thing he usually does. The Yankees don’t have any alternatives at first base right now, so Rice will get a chance to work through things. Hopefully he makes the adjustment soon … And finally, Austin Wells went 0-for-0 Friday night. Three walks and what was ruled a sac bunt and an error when he tried to bunt for a hit and the throw pulled the defender off first base. Wells is the first Yankee to go 0-for-0 in at least four plate appearances since Matt Holliday went 0-for-0 with five walks against the Orioles on April 9th, 2017. Wells had the 32nd 0-for-0 game in franchise history (min. 4 PA). Also, he started all four games against the Rays, including Saturday’s day game after Friday’s night game. He’s the first Yankees catcher to start four straight days (days, not games) since Kyle Higashioka from Sept. 8-11, 2022. That happened because Jose Trevino was on the paternity list, and the Yankees didn’t want to throw Ben Rortvedt behind the plate in important games. With two lefty starters coming up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the righty hitting Carlos Narváez start the next two days, and Wells maybe pinch-hits late. He’s been really, really good lately.

Injury updates and roster moves

Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) has gone through agility drills and hit against the high velocity machine the last few days. The Yankees will decide later this week whether he’ll go out on a minor league rehab assignment, or jump right back into the lineup. I vote rehab assignment, but I have no say in the matter … Clarke Schmidt (lat) threw 20 pitches off a mound Saturday and has a more intense bullpen session planned for Tuesday. He’s gonna get stretched out to start rather than hasten his return by coming back as a reliever. We’re probably looking at late August for Schmidt’s return, possibly September … Jon Berti (calf) suffered what Boone called a “minor” setback, but Berti also received a PRP injection, and you usually don’t get those for “minor” issues. He was getting close to starting rehab games, and now everything’s on hold … JT Brubaker (oblique) will be shut down 3-4 weeks. There won’t be enough time to get him stretched out to start after that, and even if he comes back as a one-inning reliever, Brubaker’s looking at what, a mid September return? He’s under team control next year, but this is essentially a lost season for him … Nick Burdi (hip) has been facing hitters in Tampa (video) and could start a rehab assignment later this week. He has options left, so the Yankees can stash him in Triple-A, if necessary  … The latest bullpen shuttle move: Josh Maciejewski went down and Yoendrys Gómez came up. Maciejewski soaked up three innings at the end of Saturday’s blowout loss, and that usually equals a trip to the minors … Cody Morris, who was DFAed when Scott Effross was activated off the 60-day injured list last week, cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Scranton. Morris was the pitcher the Yankees received in the Estevan Florial trade with the Guardians. Neither team won that one … And finally, the Yankees signed journeyman lefty Thomas Pannone to a minor league deal. You may remember him with the Blue Jays a few years back. Pannone, 30, had a 4.37 ERA (4.78 FIP) in 19 starts and 90.2 innings with the Cubs’ Triple-A team before being released last week. He is the veteran innings guy the RailRiders desperately need.

Up next

The second leg of the Subway Series, then an off-day. The Yankees got swept in Citi Field a few weeks ago and were outscored 21-9 in the two games. I would like them to not do that at Yankee Stadium this week. Here are the pitching matchups:

• Tuesday vs. Mets: RHP Luis Gil vs. LHP Jose Quintana (7pm ET on YES, WPIX, TBS)

• Wednesday vs. Mets: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. LHP Sean Manaea (7pm ET on ESPN)

• Thursday: off-day

A midweek ESPN exclusive? What did we do to deserve this? Anyway, the Mets again lined up two lefties to face the Yankees because the Yankees have had a harder time with lefties this season. That means Luis Severino will not face his former team even though he said he really wants to pitch in Yankee Stadium as a visiting player a few weeks ago.

“We have a group chat, the guys who’ve been through the Yankees and stayed with the Yankees,” Severino said this past weekend (video). “They talked shit about me when I missed the Yankees (last month). Like, ‘Oh you’re afraid of us.’ I said, ‘I’m not afraid. Right now you guys only have two good hitters.’”

He’s not wrong! Watch the video and you’ll see Severino was joking around, but he’s not wrong. LeMahieu, Volpe, and Wells came through with big swings Monday, but most days it’s on Soto and Aaron Judge to drive the bus. Also, there’s rain in the forecast Wednesday and these teams don’t have any convenient common off-days remaining. We might be waiting that one out a while.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Isaac Paredes. The trade deadline is exactly a week away. The Yankees will make moves between now and then, I’m sure of it, and third base help figures to be at or near the top of the shopping list. There’s uncertainty with Luis Rengifo as he works his way back from a wrist injury and Ryan McMahon was told he is staying put. That thins out the market.

“(GM Bill Schmidt and I) had a good talk,” McMahon told Mark Sanchez at the All-Star Game. “Talked about it, and we came to the conclusion that I’m going to stay a Rockie.”

Even if McMahon was available and Rengifo was healthy, the best realistically available third baseman might be Isaac Paredes. I know he’s available because he’s a Ray, and the Rays will trade anyone at any time. Paredes is in his arbitration years and is starting to get expensive, and this year’s All-Star Game selection will only make him more pricey. He’s available. 100%.

Does Paredes make sense for the Yankees? Can the Yankees and Rays find common ground on a significant trade? I can’t answer the second question. Let’s dig in and try to answer the first.

Background

Still only 25, Paredes originally signed with the Cubs as an $800,000 international amateur free agent out of Mexico in July 2015. The Cubs traded him and Jeimer Candelario as prospects to the Tigers for Alex Avila and old pal Justin Wilson at the 2017 deadline, then the Tigers traded him to the Rays with a Competitive Balance draft pick for Austin Meadows a few days before Opening Day 2022.

Paredes made his big league debut with the Tigers and was ineffective for them as an up/down guy from 2020-21 (64 wRC+ in 57 games). The Rays had him open 2022 in the minors, and even if that was a legitimate developmental stint, it doubled as service time manipulation. Paredes was called up for good that May and was down long enough to push back his free agency. He’s been a lineup mainstay since.

Offense

Paredes entered this past weekend in a slump and the Yankees were able to extend it. He went 1-for-16 with a trademark pulled homer during the four games in the Bronx, and is in a 7-for-55 (.127) skid dating back before the All-Star break. Here are Paredes’ numbers heading into Monday afternoon’s game:

Paredes is a very unique hitter who’s skill set really only works with the way he hits. He’s an extreme pulled fly ball hitter. His 24.6% pulled fly ball rate is the highest in baseball this season (only five others are over 20%). It was 19.1% a year ago, so he’s even more extreme now. Paredes has pulled every single home run in his career and the majority of them, like Saturday’s (video), were wall scrapers. 

Forty-six players have at least 40 homers since the start of last season. Here are the shortest average home run distances among those 46 hitters:

1. Isaac Paredes: 376 feet
2. Ozzie Albies: 389 feet
3. Marcus Semien: 391 feet
4. Several tied at 395 feet

Paredes is not hitting tanks into the second deck. He’s hitting the ball just over the wall. He has to pull the ball at such an extreme rate because his contact quality is not good. This season he’s running an 85.0 mph average exit velocity (86.4 mph career), a 5.8% barrel rate (5.3% career), and a 26.4% hard-hit rate (29.9% career). Those are all comfortably below the league averages. This is the Isaac Paredes story:

2023-24 Paredes on pulled fly balls: .544 AVG and 1.903 SLG
2023-24 MLB average on pulled fly balls: .487 AVG and 1.735 SLG

2023-24 Paredes on all other batted balls: .275 AVG and .383 SLG
2023-24 MLB average on all other batted balls: .318 AVG and .456 SLG

Either Paredes pulls it in the air or he’s a below average hitter. It’s a narrow path to success and give Paredes credit for making it work. You can’t do this by being a caveman swinging a club. It takes good plate discipline and pitch recognition to make the correct swing decisions and get into favorable counts, and also good bat control to consistently catch the ball out in front of the plate and not whiff on/foul away anything hittable. You watched him the last few days. Paredes will grind out at-bats, even while slumping.

These two 2023-24 heat maps tell a story. Paredes has excellent bat-to-ball ability, it was his calling card as a prospect, but he can only slug in certain parts of the zone. He can get the bat on the ball anywhere but drive it in only in certain areas. Again, it’s a narrow path to success.

The Yankees do not stand out for anything hitter-related these days. Their most touted prospects come up and don’t hit, or they hit initially and are unable to sustain it. Hitters they’ve imported from other teams have backslid too (Joey Gallo, Alex Verdugo, etc.). Basically, unless you’re the generational Juan Soto or a 6-foot-7 superhuman, the Yankees have a hard time getting you to hit.

Can the Yankees help Paredes continue along this path so he remains an offensive threat? I have my doubts, and Paredes has thin margins. He’ll have to make adjustments eventually. Players always do. As it stands, Paredes is a legit 25-30 homer guy who is getting the most out of his skill set. He walks and gets the bat on the ball regularly, and pulling the ball at such an extreme rate maximizes his output.

(Yankee Stadium is favorable to pull righty hitters who yank the ball down the line rather than hit it toward Death Valley in left-center, like Paredes. You’d rather be a dead pull lefty in Yankee Stadium, but dead pull righties can make it work too.)

Defense

Like most big league third baseman, Paredes began his pro career as a middle infielder. He transitioned away from the middle infield in the minors with the Tigers and is now a full-time third baseman who makes spot starts at first base (the Rays have been playing Paredes at first since Yandy Díaz left the team to tend to a personal matter) and is an emergency option at second.

The numbers say Paredes is an average third base defender who has been trending down during his time with the Rays. Here is third base only:

• 2022: +5 DRS and +2 OAA

• 2023: +2 DRS and +0 OAA

• 2024: +0 DRS and +1 OAA

The components of OAA say Paredes is good coming in on the ball and going toward third base, but not so good ranging toward shortstop. He’s short with a thick build (listed at 5-foot-11 and 213 lbs.) and that’s not the body type you usually see at third base. His time at the hot corner may be limited. Another year or two or three at third, then you're probably looking at a most of the time first baseman.

Baserunning

Slow and bad. Paredes doesn’t steal bases (1-for-3 in his career) and his career extra-base taken rate is a terrible 33%. The MLB average is 42%. This year’s sprint speed (25.8 ft/s) and home-to-first time (4.80 seconds) are both comfortably below average. The Yankees are the slowest team in baseball and Paredes would make them even slower.

Injury history

Pretty clean. Paredes missed 29 days with a right hip strain spanning mid July to mid August in 2021, and that’s it. That’s the only non-COVID injured list stint in his career.

Contract status

Paredes has more team control than I realized. I thought he had two more years beyond this one, but it’s three. He’s making $3.4M this season, his first year of arbitration as a Super Two. Paredes will then remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2025, 2026, and 2027. He’s out of options, so there is no sending him to Triple-A, but if things get to the point where you wish you could send him to Triple-A, you have much bigger problems than a lack of roster flexibility.

What would it take?

Three and a half years (i.e. four postseasons) of an above average hitter who just went to the All-Star Game? That’s gonna hurt. Here are the best recent trade examples. There aren’t many.

• Josh Donaldson (Athletics to Blue Jays): Traded for three years of a young big leaguer (IF Brett Lawrie), a global top 50 prospect (IF Franklin Barreto), two team top 10 prospects (RHP Kendall Graveman and RHP Sean Nolin).

• Tommy Pham (Cardinals to Rays): Traded for two team top 15 prospects (LHP Génesis Cabrera and OF Justin Williams) and a non-top 30 team prospect (RHP Roel Ramirez).

Paredes is not peak Donaldson, but he’s also not persona non grata with the Rays the way Pham was with the Cardinals at the end of his time there. Paredes is somewhere between those two, which is unhelpful. The lesson here: Trade your prospects for the above average big leaguer. This is not news. The team that gets the good MLB player usually comes out ahead, not the team that gets the prospects. 

The Rays are well-run and successful, especially relative to their payroll, and I understand there may be trepidation about trading him with them, but they lose trades all the time! Cristopher Sánchez was just an All-Star. They got taken to the cleaners in the Blake Snell trade. Same with the Pham/Jake Cronenworth trade. Nate Lowe, Germán Márquez, Joe Ryan … all trades the Rays would undo. Don’t worry about Tampa’s reputation. You can’t let that dictate your moves. Just pack it in if you’re afraid to trade with a team. 

Andy Martino says the Rays have scouted Low-A Tampa extensively the last few weeks and there’s not a prospect on that roster who should be untouchable. Top 30 infielders Roderick Arias, George Lombard Jr., and Enmanuel Tejeda are the best prospects on Tampa’s roster. Righties Luis Serna and Cade Smith are solid prospects too. Low-A kids should not be off the table for any player at the deadline, Paredes or otherwise. Trade ‘em. Trade ‘em all.

Keep in mind the Rays are not top prospect whores. They tend to go for larger trade packages with many good prospects rather than one or two brand names. Sure, Tampa might ask for Jasson Domínguez or Spencer Jones, but they’re just as likely to want something like Ben Rice, Jack Neely, Brock Selvidge, Will Warren, and a lottery ticket in rookie ball. Four high probability big leaguers and another piece. That kinda thing.

(It’s easy to see how a Paredes trade could turn into something larger with the Yankees also getting, say, Garrett Cleavinger or Pete Fairbanks. Fairbanks has an ugly injury history and both his velocity and strikeout/whiff rates are down this year though.)

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Yes. They need a third baseman and Paredes is one of the most productive third basemen in the game, and they would have him for the next few years too. At the same time, if the Yankees can’t keep him on track with his pulled fly ball approach, then his value disappears. This guy contributes almost nothing (a little defense, that’s it) when he’s not pulling the ball in the air. I have a hard time trusting the Yankees with hitters, so Paredes may not be the best target for it.

But not trusting the Yankees with hitters might just be (probably is) a me problem. There is a third base lull league-wide – Rafael Devers, José Ramírez, and Austin Riley are the best of the best with, uh, declining Alex Bregman and Manny Machado next up? – and Paredes is both young and productive, which is not a combination that becomes available often. You can’t get caught waiting for the perfect player. He doesn’t exist. Paredes is as good as anyone who will hit the market at the hot corner.

McMahon is apparently unavailable and Rengifo’s both hurt and having an outlier BABIP year (the BABIP stuff deserves a deeper dive rather than an outright dismissal). Paredes is performing at a level in line with last year. This isn’t out of the ordinary for him. He does have to continue threading the needle to remain this productive though, and that’s dicey. Again, once the pulled fly balls dry up (for whatever reason), so does his value. That said, he’s the best available third baseman.

When you trade for one year of Juan Soto, you’ve committed to going for it this season. The Yankees need third base help now and in the future, and Paredes is available because all Rays are available. Is he risky? Yes. It’s a unique and maybe hard to maintain offensive approach. But given who else is out there, yes, the Yankees should pursue Paredes. Where else are they getting an impact piece at the hot corner? And that’s what the Yankees need. A middle of the lineup guy, not another 7-8-9 hitter.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Bob Nightengale (I know, I know) had a few Yankees nuggets in his Sunday notes column. First, he says they’re willing to include Spencer Jones in a trade for Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal. How generous of them, not making the kid with a near 40 K% who is struggling to keep his head above water in Double-A off-limits in a trade for one of the best pitchers in baseball. Needless to say, if the Yankees can get away with Jones being the headliner in a Crochet or Skubal trade, it would be a massive win. And second, the Yankees have had talks with the Cubs about a Jameson Taillon reunion. Alrighty. I assume a trade would involve Chicago eating a chunk of the $36M Taillon is owed from 2025-26. Taillon gave the Yankees two good years and he’s having a fine 2024 (3.10 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 3.71 xERA), though he’s working with career low fastball velocity and some of the lowest whiff rates in baseball. There is always a price point where it makes sense, but I dunno. Maybe the Taillon thing would be part of a larger trade, perhaps Carlos Rodón to the Cubs (he has a full no-trade clause, though maybe he’d waive it to go back to Chicago)? I dunno. Weird rumor.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)