July 19th, 2024: All-Star Game, Hitter Trade Targets, Mailbag

UPDATE: I've been told some folks did not receive today's post email, so I'm resending it. There is no update to the post below. Just sending out another email.

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ORIGINAL POST: The All-Star break is over and the Yankees open the second half Friday night against the Rays at Yankee Stadium. Calling it the “second half” feels extra silly this year. The Yankees have played 98 games! More than 60% of their schedule! Their 81st game was the first game of the Subway Series, when Gerrit Cole got bombed. Feels like forever ago. Anyway, here’s the upcoming schedule:

• Friday vs. Rays: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Zach Eflin (7pm ET on YES)

• Saturday vs. Rays: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Taj Bradley (1pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Sunday vs. Rays: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Shane Baz (1:30pm ET on YES)

• Monday vs. Rays: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Zack Littell (1pm ET on YES, MLBN)

Been a while since the last Monday getaway day. Those always make it feel like a long weekend to me. The Orioles blew Bradley up for nine runs in 3.1 innings on June 1st, but, since then, he has a 1.07 ERA with a 31.7 K%. He’s been great lately. The rest of Tampa’s rotation, not so much. Anyway, here are my Midseason Grades and my 2024 draft recap. Now here is today’s post.

1. The Yankees and the 2024 All-Star break. I think two things are true. One, MLB has by far the best All-Star Game and related festivities among the four major sports. And two, MLB’s All-Star Game and related festivities are losing their luster. MLB makes little effort to market the Futures Game, the biggest names pass on the Home Run Derby, and the All-Star Game is morphing into the Guys Having Outlier First Halves Game rather than, you know, stars. I know that’s hypocritical coming from someone who wanted Luis Gil to make it, but that was my fandom speaking. Fandom isn’t always (rarely is) rational. Anyway, let’s recap the Yankees and the All-Star happenings.

Futures Game

The Yankees sent two prospects, OF Spencer Jones and LHP Brock Selvidge, to Texas for the Futures Game and surprise, Selvidge couldn’t pitch because he’s hurt. Joel Sherman says Selvidge has with biceps soreness “that is not considered serious” (famous last words) but is enough that he was held out of the Futures Game. That’s too bad. I’m sure Selvidge is bummed.

As for Jones, he had an uneventful Futures Game. He started in right field in deference to Tigers CF Max Clark – Jones played right field at Vanderbilt and has a few innings there this year, but otherwise he’s been a full-time center fielder with the Yankees – and batted fifth for the AL. He got two plate appearances:

• 1st inning: Went from 0-2 to 3-2 against Rockies RHP Chase Dollander, then lined out to left. Phillies OF Justin Crawford (Carl’s son) made an awkward diving catch (video).

• 4th inning: Five pitch walk against Mets RHP Brandon Sproat, then he stole second (video). Jones later came around to score on Guardians OF Jaison Chourio’s single (Jackson’s brother).

Jones did not have to make a play in the field and was subbed out after the fourth inning, so that’s that. The NL won 6-1 (box score) and leads the all-time series 3-1-1. The Futures Game used a USA vs. World format from 1999-2018 and USA had a 13-7 advantage. That’s a wrap on the 2024 Futures Game. Now Jones can get to work cutting his 37.1 K%, sixth highest in the minors (min. 300 PA).

"It's a good time, man," Jones told Garrett Stepien about the Futures Game experience. "It doesn't get much better than this, right? Having everybody together playing baseball."

Home Run Derby

I watched the Yankee-less Home Run Derby from start to finish and had to write about it for CBS, yet I still had to look up who won it when I sat down to write this Thursday (it was Teoscar Hernández). It was that forgettable. The finish was exciting, Bobby Witt Jr. came very close to tying it on the last swing, but the Home Run Derby is definitely more fun a) in person than on television, and b) conceptually than in reality.

The new format – three minutes or 40 pitches in the first two rounds, then two minutes or 27 pitches in the finals – wasn’t great but I give MLB credit for trying new things. The clock adds some urgency and a rapid fire element, but also the players get exhausted, and the pitch limit helps there. Is it time to go back to the old 10 outs format? That took forever because guys would take so many pitches. Maybe three minutes or 10 outs rather than three minutes or 40 pitches? I dunno. Until next year.

All-Star Game

The AL’s All-Star Game dominance continued Tuesday. The AL won this year’s game 5-3 (box score) and is 22-4-1 in the last 27 All-Star Games. The all-time series is much closer (48-44-2 in favor of the AL) but the AL has had a dynasty since the mid-90s. Kinda weird, no? You’d figure the All-Star Game is about as close to 50/50 as it gets in sports, yet it keeps coming up AL.

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge were voted in as All-Star Game starters and they batted 3-4 for the AL, and played their usual right and center fields, respectively. They are the eighth set of Yankees to hit 3-4 in the All-Star Game, joining some heavy hitters (via James Smyth):

• Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig (1933-34)

• Joe DiMaggio and Lou Gehrig (1936-37)

• Joe DiMaggio and Bill Dickey (1939)

• Charlie Keller and Joe DiMaggio (1940)

• Hank Bauer and Mickey Mantle (1953)

• Mickey Mantle and Yogi Berra (1954)

• Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle (1960-62)

• Juan Soto and Aaron Judge (2024)

Because Judge, the MLB leader in home runs and wRC+ and many other things, hit cleanup, there was concern he would not face Paul Skenes in the first inning. "I'll make sure he faces him,” Soto said during a FOX Interview Monday (video). He then he went out and drew a seven-pitch walk (video) to make sure Judge faced Skenes. Generational. Alas, Judge grounded out on the first pitch. Anticlimactic!

“I was trying to take him deep, no lie,” Soto joked about facing Skenes (via Phillip Martinez). “But after two strikes, I was trying to work that at-bat so I wanted to make sure (Judge) had a chance to face him too. I got my job done.”

Shohei Ohtani hit a three-run homer to open the scoring in the third, then Soto led the comeback rally in the next half-inning. He doubled off Logan Webb to drive in the AL’s first two runs (video) and scored the tying run on David Fry’s single. Soto (double and a walk) and Ohtani (homer and a walk) were the only hitters to reach base multiple times in the All-Star Game. Judge went 0-for-2 with two groundouts.

“It was an unbelievable experience,” Soto told Mark Sanchez about playing alongside Judge while making his first All-Star Game start. “It’s once in a lifetime that you get the chance to (start) for the first time with one of the best players in the league.”

Clay Holmes also made the All-Star Game, but did not pitch. NL manager Torey Lovullo said he wanted to get as many players into the game as possible, hence three mid-inning pitching changes. AL manager Bruce Bochy took a more laid back approach. Neither the Angels (Tyler Anderson) nor Mariners (Logan Gilbert, Andrés Muñoz) had a player appear in the All-Star Game. That’s kinda lame for those fan bases.

The Futures Game happened, I already forgot who won the Home Run Derby even though I typed it five minutes ago, and the AL won the All-Star Game again. Business as usual. The All-Star break does a good job breaking up the monotony of the long season. The grind resumes Friday night. The Yankees are 58-40 and one game back in the AL East. Important days ahead.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Spare part bats. The trade deadline is only 11 days away – MLB needs to move the draft back to June and spread all these important events (and my workload) out a bit – and the Yankees have a long shopping list. In order, I would rank their needs:

1. Third base
2. Bat-missing reliever
3. Another bat-missing reliever
4. Platoon partner for Alex Verdugo
5. Starting pitcher
6. Help at first and second bases (and shortstop?)

Can the Yankees address all that? I’m not sure. Luis Rengifo is next on my list of trade candidates to write about, but he suffered a wrist injury two weeks ago and it’s bad enough that he went to see a specialist last week. For now, they’re calling it inflammation. I’m hoping for more clarity before digging in and writing about him. Rengifo got hurt taking a swing and those swing-related wrist injuries are often bad news.

Hopefully we get an update on Rengifo in the coming days. Until then, here are a smattering of role players who might be able to help the Yankees with No. 1, No. 4, and No. 6 on that deadline shopping list above.

1B/OF Mark Canha, Tigers

2024 stats: .228/.334/.341 (96 wRC+) with 6 HR, 19.1 K%, 11.1 BB% (341 PA)
Contract status: $11.5M in 2024

On a Tigers team that has not taken the expected step forward, Canha was initially miscast as a middle of the order run producer. He was their Opening Day cleanup hitter! The Tigers have cut back on Canha’s playing time the last few weeks and he’s now a platoon first baseman and DH, and occasional left fielder. That’s the best role for him. He does still punish lefties:

• vs. RHP: .211/.314/.304 (82 wRC+) with 18.9 K%, 9.8 BB%, 50.8 GB%

• vs. LHP: .286/.403/.476 (145 wRC+) with 19.5 K%, 15.6 BB%, 38.8 GB%

Canha’s platoon splits were not as extreme last year (126 wRC+ vs. 104 wRC+) but he has been trending in this direction the last few years. The guy was an everyday player and a rock solid one for a long time, but now that he’s 35, he’s in the role player phase of his career. Canha’s left field defense grades out as below average but not disastrous, and he’s capable at first. You can even put him at third in an emergency. He’s done it several times over the years.

The Yankees are hitting .235/.328/.374 (104 wRC+) against lefties (they have a 120 wRC+ vs. RHP) and one way to fix that is to get a platoon partner for Verdugo, who has a 66 wRC+ against lefties this year and a 77 wRC+ against lefties since 2022. Canha could, at least on paper, fill that role. You can sub him out for defense late and he played in New York with the Mets, so it wouldn’t be an entirely new experience for him.

Canha was traded at last year’s deadline and again in the offseason, and both times he was traded for a fringe prospect. The Brewers gave up righty Justin Jarvis, a 2018 draft pick who finally had staying power in Double-A in 2023. The Tigers gave up righty Blake Holub, their 15th rounder in 2021 and a reliever with control issues. It should not hurt at all to get Canha. A third or fourth tier prospect. That’s really it.

Old pal Gio Urshela is having a tough year with Canha’s Tigers (.252/.289/.342 and 78 wRC+) and probably isn’t a real option at third base. Gio with the rocket ball was a legend. Gio since then? Ehhh. Love the guy, he was incredibly fun from 2019-20, but he’s fighting to stay in the league now. I wouldn’t have bothered to mention him here if he weren’t a former Yankee.

2B/OF Jeff McNeil, Mets

2024 stats: .216/.276/.314 (73 wRC+) with 5 HR, 12.4 K%, 6.8 BB% (323 PA)
Contract status: $10.25M in 2024, $15.25M in 2025, $15.75M in 2026, $15.75M club option in 2027 ($2M buyout)

The Mets would probably give McNeil away. He’s been a better than league average hitter once in the last four years (and it wasn’t either of the last two years) and he’s now losing playing time to late career Jose Iglesias. And there’s that contract. Steve Cohen is stupidly rich, but the Mets don’t want to have to pay that contract. No team does. Extending McNeil seemed unnecessary at the time and the deal quickly turned sour.

Now 32, McNeil is primarily a second baseman who can make corner outfield spot starts. He’s played six innings at third base since 2020. The Yankees will need a second baseman come 2025, but is McNeil really the answer? Do they need another singles merchant with little power and no wheels? During his peak from 2018-20, McNeil was a helluva hitter. It’s been a while though. Trade for him now and you’re buying expensive decline years. I think he’s an easy pass.

OF Kevin Pillar, Angels

2024 stats: .268/.331/.463 (122 wRC+) with 7 HR, 18.1 K%, 5.5 BB% (182 PA)
Contract status: Pro-rated minimum in 2024

Remember when the Yankees went to Anaheim and Pillar mashed? He went 4-for-8 with a double and a homer in the series, and was 12 games into what became a 14-game hitting streak. Pillar started the year with the White Sox, got released in April, hooked on with the Angels after Mike Trout got hurt, and then immediately started to perform like Mike Trout. It didn’t last though:

• April: .160/.290/.360 (85 wRC+)

• May: .409/.435/.712 (221 wRC+)

• June and July: .178/.259/.274 (53 wRC+)

Pillar has hit lefties well this year (.359/.406/.625 and 149 wRC+), though it’s only 69 plate appearances and most of that production came in May. He was a platoon guy with the Braves last year and slashed .250/.261/.472 (90 wRC+) against lefties, and that probably better represents what he offers at this point in his career. Pillar can put a southpaw’s mistake in the seats and is still an average-ish defender.

These late career role players never cost anything in a trade and I see Pillar as something of a last resort. If the Yankees strike out on all the other platoon outfielders, then circle back, send the Angels a Grade D prospect, and hope to bottle some lightning. I would not mistake his season slash line or his line against lefties for Pillar discovering the Fountain of Youth. He just got hot for a few weeks. Guys do it all the time.

(Pillar reached 10 years of service time earlier this month and that’s a great accomplishment for a former 32nd round pick. He says he’s retiring after the season.)

OF Tommy Pham, White Sox

2024 stats: .264/.339/.368 (103 wRC+) with 4 HR, 21.0 K%, 9.1 BB% (257 PA)
Contract status: $3M in 2024

The White Sox signed Pham just to trade him, and there is plenty of interest. The Phillies and Royals are in on him. I would assume the Braves too given Ronald Acuña’s injury. The Guardians and Mariners make sense as well. And so do the Yankees. Pham is still playing everyday, but at age 36, he does his best work against lefties and has for some time now.

2024 vs. RHP: .254/.325/.337 (90 wRC+) with 20.3 K% and 8.1 BB%
2024 vs. LHP: .260/.383/.480 (145 wRC+) with 23.3 K% and 15.0 BB%

2021-24 vs. RHP: .243/.323/.381 (96 wRC+) with 24.4 K% and 9.9 BB%
2021-24 vs. LHP: .224/.341/.427 (112 wRC+) with 22.4 K% and 12.8 BB%

Pham’s plate discipline is still very good (20.6% chase rate) and his average exit velocity still starts with a 9 (90.6 mph to be exact). Keep him in the corners and he’ll play average to a tick below average defense. I don’t think Pham is a better player than Verdugo – Verdugo has a dead average 100 wRC+ against righties, it’s not like he’s crushed them – but the fact it’s up for discussion says something. You don’t have to try too hard to see Pham wrestling the starting job away from Verdugo.

The Yankees would have to outbid the Phillies and Royals and whoever else to get Pham, but, realistically, he is the best option to platoon with Verdugo. He might be overqualified. If there’s an injury, you can put him in the everyday lineup the way you can’t with Canha or Pillar. Pham hits lefties well, isn’t a complete sinkhole against righties, and as long as you don’t play him in center (like the White Sox have at times), he’ll be okay in the field. He can still play.

Last year Pham hit .268/.348/.472 (125 wRC+) with the Mets and they traded him for Jeremy Rodriguez, a pre-breakout Dominican Summer League kid who now ranks among their top 15 prospects. The Aaron Bummer, Dylan Cease, and Gregory Santos trades suggest White Sox GM Chris Getz wants young players close to the big leagues. I’m not sure what the trade package looks like, but yeah, Pham fits.

1B/3B/DH Justin Turner, Blue Jays

2024 stats: .230/.334/.343 (99 wRC+) with 5 HR, 17.7 K%, 11.9 BB% (311 PA)
Contract status: $13M in 2024

How do you make the slowest and most double play prone team in baseball slower and more double play prone? You trade for Justin Turner. Now 39, Turner’s had an incredible career – I bet he gets at least one Hall of Fame vote when the time comes – but he is 39, and he has slowed down. Literally too: 25.5 ft/s sprint speed, well below the 27 ft/s average. Also, he leads the league with 14 GIDP. Yeah.

That season slash line is split into .298/.376/.511 (150 wRC+) in April and .193/.312/.215 (72 wRC+) since May 1st, and his platoon split (130 wRC+ vs. LHP and 91 wRC+ vs. RHP) is more of the same. Turner was great against lefties in April and not so much since. I will say that Turner’s plate discipline remains very strong. He is just unable to drive the ball at this point in his career:

These days Turner is a most of the time DH who can make once a week spot starts at first or third base. And when he does play the field, he plays it poorly. Would I trust Turner in a big spot over, say, J.D. Davis? Yes, I would, though Giancarlo Stanton is coming to take Davis’ roster spot soon anyway. Everything from Turner’s age to the surface stats to the under-the-hood numbers say stay away.

(That all said, Turner is exactly the kinda seemingly washed up veteran who would pull a Matt Carpenter and inexplicably hit .310/.390/.540 for two months in pinstripes.)

1B/3B Patrick Wisdom, Cubs

2024 stats: .196/.279/.391 (89 wRC+) with 4 HR, 32.5 K%, 7.6 BB% (105 PA)
Contract status: $2.725M in 2024

The poor man’s Mark Reynolds. Wisdom strikes out more than Reynolds did – he has a career 36.7 K% and Reynolds’ worst year was a 35.4 K% in 2010 – and doesn’t offer quite as much power, though he will hit a mistake into orbit. The Cubs are committed to Christopher Morel at third base, which seems silly because he’s one of the worst defensive third basemen I’ve ever seen, so Wisdom is a man without a role.

From 2021-23, Wisdom authored a .214/.289/.473 (109 wRC+) line and averaged 38 homers per 600 plate appearances. It’s a power-only offensive profile and his third base defense is below average, but he hits lefties really hard and can “play” left field and first base as well. Wisdom is trending toward an offseason non-tender and the Cubs would probably give him away. Similar to Pillar, I see the 32-year-old as a last resort option. Strike out on all the other third base targets and still feel compelled to do something? There’s Wisdom.

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Pham is pretty clearly the best of the bunch here and also the most in-demand, and thus the most costly. Canha is a sneaky good fit and not a bad Plan B. Pillar, Turner, and Wisdom fall into the “definitely available but won’t move the needle much” category, and McNeil is a hard pass. The Yankees already have DJ LeMahieu on the books at $15M a year through 2026. No need to add the lefty version too. The Yankees have to get better against lefties. A platoon partner for Verdugo is a straightforward way to do it.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The 2025 schedule was released Thursday. There are four things to know, as far as I’m concerned:

• Opening Day is Thursday, March 27th. The Yankees will be home against the Brewers.

• The Yankees will make their first ever trip to Sacramento from May 9-11. That begins a stretch with a six-game West Coast trip, a six-game homestand, then a nine-game West Coast trip. Yuck.

• The Yankees open the second half in Atlanta. The All-Star Game is in Truist Park, so that’s a chance for a neat/expensive week-long baseball trip to Georgia.

• The Yankees will play seven of their final 10 games against the Orioles. Could be great/awful.

You can scroll through the 2025 schedule here. The Cubs and Dodgers will open the season in Tokyo, otherwise there are no international games on the schedule. Kinda lame. Anyway, that’s what's coming next year … During his annual All-Star break press conference the other day, Rob Manfred said the owners are becoming more open to allowing draft pick trades. Right now only the 14 Competitive Balance picks can be traded. Draft pick trades have to be collectively bargained with the MLBPA, MLB can’t just allow them, but there is some momentum. For the Yankees, the benefit of draft pick trades would not necessarily be getting some other team’s first round rounder or stockpiling extra picks. It would be the ability to trade their first rounder for MLB help, and also to pick up additional late round picks (say, seventh to tenth rounds), use them on a college senior who signs for $10,000 or so, and give themselves a whole bunch of extra bonus pool money to play with. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires after the 2026 season. If the owners lock the players out again, draft pick trades will get pushed to the back-burner. The economic stuff will be the only thing that matters, like last time.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Dan asks: When Alex Rodriguez first reached the majors, he was repeatedly called up and optioned down by Lou Piniella. This gave him tastes of the majors and then the opportunity to work on things in the minors. Why not do the same with Volpe? I get the whole sink or swim mentality, but how long do you leave someone's head under water before you pull them out?

The A-Rod situation is not a perfect comparison because he debuted as an 18-year-old in July 1994, got bullied for 17 games (11-for-54 with 20 strikeouts), then was sent back to the minors. He then went up and down a few times in 1995 before sticking for good in 1996. A-Rod was extremely young when he debuted. I get Dan’s point though. If A-Rod (or Derek Jeter in 1995) can be demoted, why can’t Anthony Volpe?

You never want to have to demote a former top prospect, but there is value in going back down to work on the things the big leagues told you to work on. Mike Trout struggled as a rookie in 2011, went back to the minors for a bit to begin 2012, and he was a +10 WAR player by 2013. Jackson Holliday struggled badly earlier this year and the Orioles didn’t hesitate to send him down. You don’t want to do it, but sometimes you have to. Ignoring that reality can make things worse.

I don’t think sending Volpe down is a unreasonable suggestion in the slightest. The kid is hitting .224/.290/.366 (91 wRC+) in over 1,000 big league plate appearances and he’s not getting better, right? He’s hitting .234/.274/.353 (78 wRC+) since May 1st and I don’t see any semblance of an approach beyond “throw the bat at the ball and hope it finds a hole.” That is no way to hit in the big leagues. Volpe is using a 1950s hitting style against 2024 pitching and defensive alignments.

There are two reasons not to demote Volpe. One, how much will Triple-A help him? The automated strike zone has been replaced by the challenge system, which is good, though the quality of competition in Triple-A is down. The 165-player limit squeezed out the Quad-A types who challenge your prospects. Volpe going down and hitting, say, .310/.400/.500 for a month may not accomplish much developmentally other than boost his confidence (and hey, maybe all he needs is a confidence boost).

And two, Volpe is the best shortstop in the organization, right? He gives the 2024 Yankees the best chance to win. Oswald Peraza, the only real alternative at this point, is performing worse in Triple-A than Volpe is in MLB, and the goal is to win games. Do you prioritize Volpe’s development or putting the MLB team in the best position to win? Would you blame the Yankees for prioritizing the latter? I sure wouldn't. (The solution would be trading for a new shortstop and sending Volpe down, though that’s easier said than done.)

I’m pretty sure I suggested this last summer, but the time to send Volpe down was the second half last year, when the Yankees were out of the race and could plug in Peraza for a few weeks while Volpe made whatever adjustments he needed to make away from the bright lights. I don’t think sending Volpe down is a ridiculous idea. His lack of offensive development has been worrisome. I also feel like the Yankees consider him untouchable and are in sink or swing territory. For better or worse, he’s their guy and they’re riding this out.

John asks: With the yanks saying it’ll be “some time” before Trevino comes back, do you think we’ll see Agustin Ramirez at all?

I think there’s a chance we’ll see him but not imminently. Ramirez is still trying to find his footing in Triple-A – .178/.307/.356 (74 wRC+) in 21 games, albeit with strikeout (20.5%) and swinging strike (12.7%) rates that suggest he is not in over his head – which is not unlike what happened in Double-A last year. Ramirez was promoted to Double-A, struggled, then returned there this year and things clicked. 

The thing is, even if Ramirez’s bat does come around, he’s a poor defensive catcher, and I’m not sure how willing the Yankees are to put him behind the plate. He’s played 44 games at catcher, 20 at first base, and 15 at DH this year. Part of that is having to share time behind the plate with Ben Rice in Somerset, but that is a lot of first base work for a bona fide catcher prospect. Ramirez might only be an emergency catcher option this year. He might only get the call to play first base or DH, if the Yankees need help there.

I will say that, in theory, the Yankees are operating with more urgency this year, and if things get to the point where they badly need a shot in the arm, then yeah, Ramirez could get the call at catcher. He’s already on the 40-man roster and Jose Trevino’s injury opens up playing time. I don’t think the Yankees will (or want to) turn to Ramirez yet, but if push comes to shove, I think they’re more willing to do it now than they would have been in the past.

Carlos asks: Given Rodon struggles, and being a hard throwing lefty, will a bullpen/closer/setup role for him be out of the question? John Smoltz is the one comp that comes up to my mind, have the Yankees ever tried something like this with a high priced pitcher?

Smoltz moved to the bullpen because he wasn’t up for a starter’s workload so soon after Tommy John surgery, not because he lost effectiveness. I can’t remember the Yankees moving a high-priced starter to the bullpen on a full-time basis, though A.J. Burnett was slotted into the bullpen in the 2011 postseason*, and other high-profile additions like Jose Contreras, Sonny Gray, Javy Vazquez, Jeff Weaver, and Jaret Wright were all temporarily demoted to the bullpen at one point.

* Burnett wound up starting Game 4 of the ALDS that year because Game 1 was suspended due to rain in the top of the second. To this day I am convinced the Yankees win that series if not for the rain. The plan was CC Sabathia in Game 1, the emergent Iván Nova in Game 2, Freddy Garcia in Game 3, Sabathia on short rest in Game 4, and Nova in Game 4. The suspended game meant Sabathia and Nova only started three of the five games rather than four. The Yankees lost the series in five.

I have no reason to believe the Yankees are considering pulling Carlos Rodón from the rotation – Clarke Schmidt is still a few weeks away, so it’s not like rotation alternatives are plentiful anyway – though I could see a Burnett-like move into the bullpen come postseason time. Hopefully Rodón starts pitching better and this becomes a moot point. That would be ideal. Lately though, he’s been really bad. Yuck.

Colin asks: You've mentioned the Rangers possibly falling out of the race and trading some relievers. They've got two former Yankee farmhands in Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith at the edges of their roster. Do you see the Rangers potentially trading either of them, with their infield largely locked down? Would either of those guys be upgrades for the Yankees? Would be fun to see a deal similar to the Frazier/Robertson/Kahnle deal this year - stocking up on relievers & infielders in the same trade.

Duran and Smith were both part of the Joey Gallo trade. Smith, the Yankees’ second round pick in 2019, is having a great year – .293/.393/.469 (145 wRC+) and +3.6 WAR – after making swing changes over the winter, though the gap between his actual stats and Statcast expected stats is enormous. Here’s where he ranks among the 207 players with at least 250 plate appearances:

• .293 AVG vs. .240 xAVG (third largest gap in terms of overperformance)

• .469 SLG vs. .354 xSLG (largest gap)

• .379 wOBA vs. .317 xSLG (largest gap)

Players who pull the ball a lot tend to outperform their expected stats, and Smith’s 44.5% pull rate is 55th highest among those 207 hitters. He’s the type who can outperform his contact quality, though it’s hard to believe he’ll outperform it this much forever. Regardless, I don’t see the Rangers trading him. He’s playing very well and is versatile, plus Josh Jung gets hurt every year and they need Smith as third base depth.

Duran, meanwhile, started last year so well – .308/.344/.536 (134 wRC+) in the first half – and the stupid Yankees made a stupid trade and gave away a budding star. Then things completely collapsed. Duran has hit .242/.295/.319 (71 wRC+) since the 2023 All-Star break, and he got demoted to Triple-A last month. He’s a good defender and versatile, but there have always been approach concerns, as evidenced by his 37.7% chase rate in the show.

As up/down depth, sure, Duran could be helpful. He’s more versatile than Jahmai Jones, though Jones does kinda sorta maybe have some interesting stuff going on with his chase rate (career 20.3%) and top end exit velocities (109.5 mph max). Jones might be the better, more disciplined hitter. Even then, there’s room for both Duran and Jones on the roster. Oswaldo Cabrera and J.D. Davis can be replaced.

Duran’s hacktastic approach puts him firmly in fringe starter/role player territory. I don’t think the Yankees could acquire him with the idea that he’s a no-doubt upgrade at third base (or second or even short). As optionable depth, sure. The Rangers don’t have to trade him, Duran has another option remaining for 2025, but if they’re open to it and the cost is reasonable, sure. He’s okay use of a bottom of the 40-man roster spot.

James asks: What about Reid Detmers as a change of scenery trade target?

Detmers is a great change of scenery candidate. He had a 6.14 ERA (4.38 FIP) in 12 starts and 63 innings before the Angels demoted him to Triple-A in early June. A year ago Detmers, who is still only 25 and under team control through 2027, threw 148.2 innings with a 4.48 ERA (4.13 FIP), which isn’t amazing, but there is a lot to like under-the-hood as a four-pitch lefty with above average whiff rates on multiple secondaries, and a career 24.3 K% and 12.0% swinging strike rate.

Detmers was the No. 10 pick in the 2020 draft and a consensus top 30 prospect in baseball entering 2022. This seems like a clear example of a poorly run team not knowing what they’re doing, and a talented young pitcher in need of a competent organization. In a perfect world you would pick up Detmers in the offseason so you have the winter and a Spring Training to onboard him and work through adjustments, but if you can only get him at the trade deadline, then so be it. I have to think more than a few smart teams see Detmers as having untapped potential.

A different Dan asks: Having Girardi in the booth reminded me that Boone was heralded as a “communicator” for a young team. 7 years later, that team is now 7th oldest in MLB and consistently struggles to develop and sustain young core players. Instead of debating Boone’s merits, is it just time for a new TYPE of manager? I’m not looking for specific names but maybe a no-nonsense fundamentals guy, or a high energy player’s coach, or a tactical mastermind, etc. ?

When teams hire a new manager, then tend to hire somehow who is the exact opposite of the guy they’re replacing. We saw it with the Yankees. The laid back Joe Torre replaced the controlling Buck Showalter. The intense Joe Girardi replaced the laid back Torre. Cool uncle Aaron Boone replaced the intense Girardi. The Rangers replaced the new school Chris Woodward with the grizzled veteran Bruce Bochy. The Mets replaced the rookie Luis Rojas with the experienced Showalter, who was then replaced by the rookie Carlos Mendoza. It is the cycle of managerial hires.

It does seem like the Yankees need a new TYPE of manager, right? This team’s fundamentals are terrible and that has been a constant in the Boone era. They look unprepared far too often. I don’t know if accountability is the right word – no one demands accountability more than anonymous users on the internet – but when Yankees players make mistakes or play poorly, they are allowed to just continue making the same mistakes or play poorly. Where’s the instruction? Why is this stuff allowed to fester?

Boone definitely falls into the players’ manager category. His players love him. It seems to me the Yankees would benefit from a more experienced manager, someone who has managed different clubhouses and can draw on what he’s learned at different stops. Someone with a handle on playing clean baseball and just crossing Ts and dotting Is. Different teams require different managerial types. This team feels like it needs someone who is on the ball and not necessarily everyone’s best buddy.

Daniel asks: Since it’s draft season, who has been the Yankees most-impactful fast moving draft pick? Let’s say…in the RAB era. Joba?

Definitely Joba Chamberlain. He was drafted in 2006 (No. 41 overall) and an impact reliever by the second half in 2007. In 2008, he threw 100.1 innings with a 2.60 ERA (2.65 FIP), and he also contributed to a World Series winner in 2009. Things began to go south after that, but Joba produced almost immediately. Drafted in 2006 and then put up +6.3 WAR from 2007-09. That’s a draft win, especially as a non-first rounder.

The Yankees haven’t had many quick-moving draftees in the RAB era (since 2007). Like Joba, Ian Kennedy got to the big leagues in 2007 after being a 2006 pick, though he didn’t help as much right away. Here are the few other notable quick-movers:

RHP Nick Rumbelow: Seventh round pick in 2013, made his MLB debut in June 2015. That’s not a super quick-mover, but it’s quick enough in my book. Rumbelow threw only 15.2 innings with the Yankees. He is most notable for being traded to the Mariners for JP Sears and Juan Then in Nov. 2017. Sears was in the Frankie Montas trade and Then was in the Edwin Encarnación trade.

LHP Jacob Lindgren: Second round pick in 2014, made his MLB debut in May 2015. Lindgren was the Yankees’ first pick in 2014 because they surrendered their first rounder to sign Brian McCann. They also received compensation picks for Robbie Canó and Curtis Granderson that offseason, then forfeited them to sign Carlos Beltrán and Jacoby Ellsbury. Anyway, Lindgren was a college closer who was a candidate to reach the show later in 2014, but that didn’t happen. He walked a lot of guys in the minors, threw seven innings with the Yankees in 2015, and got hurt.

RHP Jonathan Holder: Sixth round pick in 2014, made his MLB debut in Sept. 2016. Holder was Lindgren’s setup man at Mississippi State. He wasn’t a super quick-mover but he got to the show two years after being drafted, and gave the Yankees 176.2 league average innings from 2016-20 (4.38 ERA, 100 ERA+, 3.85 FIP). Holder had shoulder trouble after the Yankees non-tendered him, though he was active last year (66.2 innings with the Angels' Triple-A team). He signed a minor league deal with the Rangers this past offseason, but got released in Spring Training. Looks like that’s it for him.

That’s it as far as quick-movers go. Austin Wells and Ben Rice both reached the big leagues before becoming Rule 5 Draft eligible, which is pretty darn quick considering their primary position is catcher. Catchers have a steep learning curve and can be slower to develop. Still, debuting three years after being drafted isn’t really quick-moving. Even two years after the draft like Holder and Rumbelow is pushing it. Joba is, by frickin’ far, the best quick-moving draftee the Yankees have had in quite some time.

Anonymous asks: Please list to which team each of the draft prospects you wrote up went to, in order by pick number. Any comments or analysis would also be very much appreciated.

I’ve never gone back and looked at the draft prospects I wrote up, and followed up on where they landed and how things played out in relation to the Yankees. Seems like a good idea. Including the rapid fire guys from last week, I wrote up 22 draft prospects this year. Here’s where they went.

Wake Forest 1B Nick Kurtz: No. 4 to Athletics. I mentioned there was a chance Kurtz would go in the top 5-10 picks. The idea he might fall to the Yankees was based on the poor recent history of first round college first basemen possibly pushing him down draft boards league-wide. The A’s were in on Kurtz very early in the draft cycle. It’s the second straight year they took the guy they were on early (last year it was Jacob Wilson) despite weeks of noise saying they were looking elsewhere.

Mississippi State RHP/LHP Jurrangelo Cijntje. No. 15 to Mariners. The Yankees didn’t get a shot at him at No. 26. Cijntje (pronounced SAIN-ja) had a lot of buzz in the 15-20 range leading up to the draft. Apparently the Mariners will let him continue to switch-pitch, so that’s neat.

Texas HS IF Theo Gillen: No. 18 to Rays. Tampa grabbed the guy with a top 10 caliber bat but also injury concerns and defense questions. Great hit tools have been their thing the last few drafts. The Yankees didn’t have a chance to draft Gillen.

Oklahoma State OF Carson Benge: No. 19 to Mets. Benge was my first write-up this year back on May 17th. By time the draft rolled around, every team in the 15-22 range was on him. There was no chance he was getting to the Yankees at No. 26.

North Carolina OF Vance Honeycutt: No. 22 to Orioles. Honeycutt has 30/30 and Gold Glove upside, but he needs a swing overhaul. The O’s have had great success helping their prospects do exactly that, which seems not great for the Yankees!

Florida HS SS Kellon Lindsey: No. 23 to Dodgers. Not much to say here. Lindsey was expected to go in the back half of the first round, and that’s exactly where he went.

Oklahoma HS LHP Kash Mayfield: No. 25 to Padres. Every team except the Padres is skewing toward college players. Mayfield was their eighth straight high school first rounder. This was the pick immediately before the Yankees’ first rounder.

Arkansas HS OF Slade Caldwell: No. 29 to Diamondbacks. The D’Backs certainly have a type. They love their undersized up-the-middle players with great speed, great athleticism, and short levers from the left side of the plate. Caldwell fits right in with Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas (and former D’Back Daulton Varsho too).

Stanford C Malcolm Moore: No. 30 to Rangers. Fifteen of the 22 prospects I wrote up were available to the Yankees, and Moore was the second of the 15 to come off the board. There was talk the Cubs would take him at No. 14, but obviously that didn’t happen.

Kentucky OF Ryan Waldschmidt: No. 31 to D’Backs. I was surprised Waldichuk (narrowly) slipped out of the first round. College guy with a track record and high-end exit velocity data? The expectation was he’d go in the 15-25 range somewhere.

California HS RHP Braylon Doughty: No. 36 to Guardians. Between winning the No. 1 pick in the lottery and having a Competitive Balance pick, Cleveland has the largest bonus pool this year ($18.3M). Doughty was one of the top high school pitchers in the draft class. Clear example of a top high schooler asking for a big number that pushed him out of the first round, and a team with a big bonus pool saying “okay.”

Iowa RHP Brody Brecht: No. 38 to Rockies. The Rockies? Poor kid. Brecht is a two-pitch guy with poor command. Pitchers with more polish and/or a wider arsenal came off the board first.

LSU 3B Tommy White: No. 40 to Athletics. Tommy Tanks is such an A’s pick.

New Jersey HS SS Luke Dickerson: No. 44 to Nationals. There was chatter the Yankees would take Dickerson in the first round, but this was a more appropriate spot for him based on the other Day 1 high school shortstops and where they were drafted.

Duke LHP Jonathan Santucci: No. 46 to Mets. Nothing notable here. Santucci went in the range he was expected to go after a walk-filled spring and medical concerns removed him from first round consideration for many teams.

California HS LHP Boston Bateman: No. 52 to Padres. The Padres went back to the high school well. This was the pick before the Yankees’ second round selection and they were rumored to have interest in Bateman for their second rounder. I wonder if they would have taken him? Hmmm.

Illinois HS RHP Ryan Sloan: No. 55 to Mariners. Seattle traded their Competitive Balance pick to the White Sox for Gregory Santos, so their $9.5M bonus pool is on the smaller side. Sloan must not be asking for a huge bonus for the Mariners to know they can get this done. He was viewed as a first round talent, but teams hate taking high school righties in the first round, so he slipped.

Alabama HS SS Carter Johnson: No. 56 to Marlins. On paper, a good value pick for Miami. Johnson was considered a 25-30 range prospect.

Tennessee 3B Billy Amick: No. 60 to Twins. Something of an exit velocity only player, Amick slipping out of the first round was less of a surprise than Waldschmidt because the secondary skills (defense, etc.) aren’t as good. I thought Amick was a bit overhyped leading up to the draft. I guess teams felt the same way.

Iowa HS RHP Joey Oakie: No. 84 to Guardians. Another top high school pitcher falling out of the first round and into the lap of the team with the biggest bonus pool.

Mississippi State OF Dakota Jordan: No. 116 to Giants. Supposedly teams picking in the 25-35 range had interest in Jordan, yet he slipped all the way to the fourth round. San Francisco has had little success developing similar big power/poor contact rate/poor approach prospects (Joey Bart, Hunter Bishop, etc.).

Louisiana HS RHP William Schmidt: Undrafted. A few hours before the draft, Schmidt announced he’s going to LSU and asked teams not to draft him, so they didn’t. He was arguably the top high school pitcher in the draft class and figures to be a top draft prospect come 2027.

The Yankees had the No. 26 pick and I wrote up four of the other six players selected in the 25-31 range, so at least I was in the ballpark. I should probably make this – looking at what happened with the draft prospects I profiled – an annual thing. Seems like a good way to close the book on draft coverage.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)