July 15th, 2024: Orioles Series, Rodón, Wells, Vivas, Gil, Cole

The 2024 draft began Sunday night and the Yankees used their first round pick (No. 26) on Alabama RHP Ben Hess, who I did not write up. They used their second pick (No. 53) on Vanderbilt RHP Bryce Cunningham. I didn't write him up either. So it goes. Hess and Cunningham are both build-a-pitcher/pitch data types. I’ll have more on them and the rest of the Yankees’ draft class later this week. I’m calling a bit of an audible this week because I need more time to work on Midseason Grades. Here instead is Tuesday morning’s post on Monday, just to get it off my plate and cross an item off the to-do list. Midseason Grades will run Tuesday, then the draft recap will run Thursday (maybe Wednesday, but I can’t make any promises). 

1. Weekend thoughts. I would have happily signed up for winning two of three in Baltimore this past weekend, but because the Yankees couldn’t finish the sweep – and lost the third game that way – I’m annoyed. Couldn't just lose 3-2 like a normal team? Stupid sport. Anyway, despite their best efforts these last few weeks, the Yankees enter the All-Star break only one game back in the AL East (two in the all-important loss column). If I were an Orioles fan, I would be livid the division race is as close as it is with the Yankees playing as poorly as they have for as long as they have. Baltimore has left the door open. Perhaps the Yankees won’t trip over their own feet when they try to walk through it in the second half. Here are a few thoughts on the O’s series.

Brawltimore

Only Clay Holmes knows whether he hit Heston Kjerstad in the head on purpose Friday. I would be shocked if it was intentional though. Holmes is not a headhunter, and consider the situation. The Yankees were up 4-1 and badly in need of a win, Holmes has struggled in recent weeks and didn’t need to give the Orioles a free baserunner, it was an 0-2 count, and why hit Kjerstad of all people? He’s completely inoffensive. Regardless, the O’s and manager Brandon Hyde were unhappy, and benches cleared (video).

“I was just trying to tell Heston that I wasn’t trying to do it. I hope he’s all right,” Holmes told Bryan Hoch about why he approached the plate after hitting Kjerstad. “I saw Hyde mouthing some stuff. Some people didn’t like that, and things got heated.”

I don’t believe for a second Holmes hit Kjerstad on purpose – if he did, it’s the first time he hit his spot in weeks – but I understand Hyde and the Orioles getting upset, especially since the Yankees are out-HBP-ing the O’s 10-4 in the season series. 10-4! The Yankees have hit 62 batters this year, three more than any other team, and the last time the Yankees and Orioles met, Aaron Judge got hit in the hand and the Yankees threw at Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander. This has been building for a while. I understand why Hyde was upset.

“(I heard) stuff from their dugout. I saw they were pointing at me and the whole thing, so I just reacted the way I did,” Hyde told Hoch. Judge added: “We’ve gotten quite a few of their guys hit by pitches. They’ve gotten us. It just kind of boiled over there.”

Dean Kremer plunked Judge in the elbow guard on the first pitch with the bases empty and two outs in the first inning Sunday and yeah, that was obviously intentional. The dugouts didn’t empty, there were no words exchanged, nothing. As far as retaliation goes, that was about the best it could go for both Judge and the O’s. Message sent, no need to escalate things further, etc. (The increasingly useless Alex Verdugo flew out harmlessly in a 3-0 count as the next batter, so the Yankees didn’t capitalize on the gift baserunner.)

One thing I do find humorous about these benches-clearing incidents is how easy it is to pick Judge out from the crowd because he towers over everyone else. I mean:

Once things calmed down, Holmes closed out Friday’s win, then the Yankees won Saturday after jumping out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning. And yet, the Yankees leave us feeling about as bad as you can after taking two of three from a division rival because the closer who shouldn’t be closing couldn’t get through the bottom of the order unscathed, the glove-only Golden Child fumbled the 27th out, and the Red Sox double agent in left field did whatever the hell that was on a fly ball that had a 99% catch probability, per Statcast. Losers find ways to lose.

The Yankees and Orioles have one head-to-head series remaining and it could be an important one: Sept. 24-26 at Yankee Stadium, the penultimate series of the regular season. The AL East title could be on the line. Will the bad blood carry over to that series? Yeah, maybe. We’ll find out in a few weeks. More important than the bad blood is the Yankees letting another winnable game against a division rival slip away Sunday. The lose-a-game-they-should-have-wons far outnumber the win-a-game-they-should-have-losts this year.

Rodón changes it up

After each of his last four starts, Carlos Rodón said something to the effect of “I have to change things up to avoid a bad first inning,” and he finally did it Sunday. He struck out Henderson on seven pitches to open the game, all breaking balls, and in the first inning he threw 11 breaking balls, four fastballs, and two changeups. Rodón definitely stayed away from his fastball in the early innings:

Ultimately, the new pitch mix didn’t help much. Rodón gave up two runs and seven baserunners in four innings (98 pitches), and allowed his 20th home run of the season. Only José Berríos (21) has allowed more. Henderson’s gonna hit homers, it’s what he does, but Rodón went from 0-2 to a walk against No. 9 hitter James McCann (68 wRC+ in 2024) to set that up, and come on man. Put the No. 9 hitter away. Make things easy on yourself.

It becomes more obvious each time out: Rodón is unreliable. His fastball is getting tattooed, he can’t seem to command anything, he’s extremely home run prone, he’s not pitch efficient, and he’s a chore to watch. Not-so-bold prediction: Rodón will make a relief appearance before the end of the season, A.J. Burnett in 2011 style. You’re not good enough to be in the postseason rotation, so get ready to learn bullpen, buddy.

Trevino injured, Narváez called up

The Yankees lost the right-handed half of their catcher platoon Friday night. Jose Trevino suffered a Grade 2 quad strain running the bases (video) and it’s “going to be some time,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty. That’s a bummer. I know he can’t throw anymore, but the Yankees will miss Trevino’s .244/.303/.411 (103 wRC+) slash line and elite-at-everything-but-throwing defense.

Carlos Narváez, who was hitting .269/.386/.443 (117 wRC+) in Triple-A and is said to be a strong receiver, was called up to replace Trevino, and he's going to get a chance these next few weeks. Trevino's injury is not short-term. Austin Wells does figure to get more playing time though, and he deserves it. He’s been great lately.

“Great at-bat. Huge shot in the arm for us to throw a crooked one like that in the first,” Boone told Erik Boland about Wells’ nine-pitch at-bat and homer Saturday (video). “... A lot of good at-bats to give us an opportunity there and then a (long) at-bat, finally got a mistake, and he didn’t miss it. The guys were off and running after that.”

Saturday’s homer was Wells’ fourth in an eight-start span and he hit .256/.326/.465 (125 wRC+) in his final 46 games and 144 plate appearances of the first half. His at-bats are usually solid, he’s pulling the ball more, and the results are coming. I wish Trevino didn’t get hurt, but I am glad Wells is in line to get more playing time. He’s been one of the Yankees’ best hitters the last few weeks and I think there’s more in the tank too. Big opportunity these next few weeks for Mr. Wells.

On the Vivas call up

Infielder Jorbit Vivas, my No. 9 prospect, was called up Friday to replace the sick J.D. Davis, though he did not get into a game this weekend. Boone did not commit to playing the kid – “There could be a start for him this weekend, but no guarantees,” he told Greg Joyce on Friday – and then he went with what I imagine he considers his “A” lineup against the Orioles. Vivas was sent down after Sunday’s loss.

"It's a dream to be here in the big leagues. Very happy for the opportunity,” Vivas told Pete Caldera. “... Lately I’ve been playing a lot of third base at Triple-A, and definitely feeling more comfortable there for sure. I just want to be ready, show that I can play a little bit of baseball and try to help as much as I can."

Vivas missed the first seven weeks of 2024 with an orbital fracture suffered in a freak weight room accident – “A (weight) band snapped back and that’s how the accident happened,” Vivas told Caldera – and it took him some time to get up to speed at the plate. He’s hitting .258/.404/.424 (122 wRC+) with nearly as many walks (17.2 BB%) as strikeouts (18.2 K%) in Triple-A, including .333/.476/.636 (186 wRC+) since June 18th.

The slash line is good and getting better. The contact quality has been poor though, and I wonder if Vivas sitting out the weekend is an indication the exit velocity obsessed Yankees aren’t in love with the kid, or at least not with the current version of him. Here are some Triple-A numbers:

• 83.5 mph average exit velocity (Triple-A average: 87.3 mph)

• 101.7 mph 90th percentile exit velocity (33rd percentile in Triple-A)

• 105.9 mph max exit velocity (16th percentile in Triple-A)

Vivas has an 84.2 mph average exit velocity since June 18th, so his contact quality hasn’t improved during the hot streak. He’s a contact guy and contact guys tend to have lower average exit velocities, but his top end exit velocities are poor too. There is more to life than exit velocity, but hitting the ball hard matters, and contact quality this poor in Triple-A raises the questions about a player’s viability at the next level.

The good news is Vivas has shown strong plate discipline and contact rates (68th percentile SEAGER), and he is performing better as he gets further away from the broken orbital. The kid has 290 career plate appearances in Triple-A. They span two seasons and are sandwiched around a serious facial injury. He’s not a finished product. We can’t ignore the poor contact quality, but we shouldn’t assume this is who Vivas is forever either.

I think the Yankees called Vivas up as a stopgap until Davis returns (he’s eligible to be activated Friday), and they went with him over Oswald Peraza because a) they consider Vivas the better player, and b) they were more likely to use the lefty hitting Vivas over the weekend. It obviously wasn’t a “give him a real shot” call up. He was just a body for a few days, and the Yankees aren’t ready to turn him loose just yet.

I would have liked Vivas to get a start at third base at some point over the weekend, but I’m not gonna get bent out of shape about it. I don’t see him as a needle-mover this year and putting him in the lineup would just be an attempt to bottle some lightning. Bottom line, the Yankees need infield help at the deadline. I’m not gonna hold my breath expecting Vivas to contribute, and it seems the Yankees won’t either.

Miscellany

Excellent start to close out the first half for Luis Gil: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K (video). He again threw way more sliders than changeups (he threw more sliders than fastballs!) …

… and his release point was where it needed to be. Gil told Dan Martin he recently changed his slider grip and it’s “not slipping away” anymore. That seems good. The King of the Gil finished the first half with a 3.17 ERA (3.61 FIP). He didn’t make the All-Star Game as a replacement, which is too bad. I’m glad Gil was able to shake off that little three-start hiccup a few weeks ago and get back to dominating … Friday was Gerrit Cole’s best start since coming off the injured list: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K (video). Identical line to Gil. Freaky. Cole has leaned on his cutter a ton through five starts and his fastball command isn’t all the way there yet, but he’s getting there. Good signs abound … Judge against the Orioles: 3-for-7 (.429) with a double, two homers, seven walks, and three strikeouts. The O’s straight up refused to pitch to him at times and I reckon that will start happening more and more given the rest of the lineup behind him. Judge and Juan Soto hit very cool back-to-back homers Saturday (video) and both went into the All-Star break swinging the bat well. Obvious statement is obvious: Judge and Soto getting hot at the same time would do wonders for this team … And finally, Gleyber Torres (90 wRC+) caught up to Verdugo (90 wRC+) and Anthony Volpe (91 wRC+) at the All-Star break. Who saw that coming in April? That is in no way praise of Gleyber. It is an indictment of Volpe and Verdugo. They’ve been bad for way too long. I doubt it’ll happen, but the Yankees should add left fielder to their already lengthy trade deadline shopping list. Get well soon, Jasson.

Injury updates

Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) won’t return immediately after the All-Star break but he is getting close. The Yankees are still undecided about sending him out on a proper rehab assignment, which seems insane, but you know how it goes with this team and injuries … Davis was placed on the injured list with the stomach flu Friday, clearing a spot for Vivas. The stomach flu, eh? That’s a new one. Apparently it’s bad enough that Davis stayed behind in Tampa. The Yankees sent Vivas down after Sunday’s game and Davis and Stanton are the only position players eligible to be activated off the injured list in time for Friday’s game. Seems like Davis will be back, or the Yankees will shuttle in a new spare part … JT Brubaker left his last rehab start with an oblique issue. Boone told Gary Phillips it is not “real significant,” but Brubaker is shut down for the time being. That’s a bummer. Would have been nice to have him around as an extra layer of pitching depth … Ian Hamilton (lat) has started a throwing program. His return is not imminent, he’s still got a ways to go with his rehab, but he has picked up a ball … And finally, Scott Effross (back, elbow) was activated off the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A on Sunday. He made nine mostly effective rehab appearances. Cody Morris, my No. 28 prospect and the guy the Yankees got in the Estevan Florial trade with the Guardians, was DFAed to clear a 40-man roster spot. Kinda weird to activate and option Effross, no? The bullpen needs help. Like, a lot of help. His 30-day rehab window would have expired Friday, and I guess the Yankees just don’t consider him MLB ready yet. (Because of the 15-day rule, Effross can not be called up until Monday, July 29th, unless he replaces an injured player.)

Up next

The Home Run Derby is Monday (8pm ET on ESPN ) and the All-Star Game is Tuesday (8pm ET on FOX). No Yankees are in the Home Run Derby. Soto and Judge will be in the All-Star Game starting lineup, likely hitting 2-3-4 somewhere, and Holmes will be in the bullpen. I hope he pitches, honestly. Let him work through things in a game that doesn’t matter. The Yankees open the second half at home against the Rays on Friday. The rotation out of the All-Star break will be Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón, and Luis Gil in that order, Boone told Phillips. That gives Gil a nine-day break between starts, and scheduled off-days mean the Yankees only need him to make three starts in the next 24 days. Zach Eflin will start Friday’s game for Tampa, per Marc Topkin.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees have “discussed” Jazz Chisholm Jr., according to Jon Heyman. Discussed with the Marlins? Discussed among themselves? Who knows. Over the weekend Marlins manager Skip Schumaker told Craig Mish they will start playing Chisholm at second base (he made his first start at second on Sunday), which is an obvious showcase leading up to the deadline. Here’s my Scouting the Market post on Chisholm. The trade winds are a blowin’ … And finally, cool thing alert: The Dominican Winter League is coming to Yankee Stadium. Héctor Gómez says rivals Tigres del Licey and Águilas Cibaeñas will play in the Bronx sometime this winter. Last year those two clubs played three games at Citi Field from Nov. 10-12. I didn’t go to any of those games but I heard from folks who did that they were electric atmospheres on par with the usual winter ball experience. I imagine the games at Yankee Stadium will be wild given the large Dominican community in the Bronx. If I can get in with my BBWAA card, I’m there.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)