July 12th, 2024: Grisham, Rodón, Soto, Hill, 2024 Draft, Mailbag

We’ve made it. The final post of the first half. The Yankees have three games in Baltimore this weekend, the draft begins Sunday night, the All-Star break is next week, and then the second half begins next Friday in the Bronx. As for the blog, this is what I’m thinking next week:

• Monday: Midseason grades as their own post (here are last year’s)

• Tuesday: Regularly scheduled post (likely gonna be much shorter than usual)

• Wednesday or Thursday: Draft recap (here is last year’s)

• Friday: Regularly scheduled post with mailbag questions

That is all tentative. I have a lot on my plate for CBS the next few days and if I have to push the midseason grades to Tuesday, then I have to push them to Tuesday. I should probably follow up the midseason grades with end-of-season grades, huh? I didn't do that last year. Let’s get through the rest of the season first and see how we feel about things in a few months. Here now is today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees are 2-7 in their last nine games, 6-17 in their last 23 games, and 11-19 in their last 30 games. Did they look this bad in every phase of the game simultaneously at any point last season? Maybe they did, but it feels like it’s been a really long time since we’ve seen the Yankees play this poorly for this long. The All-Star break can’t get here soon enough. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games. 

The Trent Grisham Game

We had The Cody Poteet Game in April, The Ben Rice Game last weekend, and now The Trent Grisham Game on Wednesday. Grisham, who is now the everyday center fielder, drove in both runs in the 2-1 win – one with a double that was nearly a homer, the other with a sacrifice fly – and also made a great running catch that saved at least one run, and very likely two. Here’s the video.

“I got a pretty good read, but it was hit a lot better than I thought initially,” Grisham told Bryan Hoch about the catch. “I had to adjust course a little bit, but I was happy to make the play.”

Grisham has started 10 of the last 11 games in center – basically every game since the Yankees got out of that extended run of opposing lefty starters – and he’s (quietly?) hitting .275/.333/.450 (115 wRC+) since Giancarlo Stanton got hurt and his playing time increased. This is the first time all season Grisham has gotten consistent playing time and he’s performing nicely at the bottom of the order.

That all said, Grisham is not for everyone. He’s extremely passive at the plate and prone to taking fastballs down the middle – his 32.0% swing rate is dead last among the almost 400 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances – and he’s very smooth and casual in center. It looks low effort and the botched single last week (video) added fuel to the fire, but Grisham is so good in center. I get it though. He can be frustrating.

Frustrating or not, the Yankees badly need someone at the bottom of the lineup to contribute, and Grisham has contributed since Stanton’s injury. Alex Verdugo has been swinging a limp bat for two months now (.231/.271/.370 and 81 wRC+ since May 1st). When Stanton returns, we'll have to have a conversation about giving Grisham some of Verdugo's playing time. That’s something to worry about later. For now, Grisham was the star of Wednesday’s game, a game the Yankees a) really needed to win, and b) got little from everyone else.

Rodón rocked again

I can’t remember the last time I enjoyed a Yankee less than I enjoy the Carlos Rodón experience. It’s nothing personal, but his performance is terrible and aggravating to watch, and his vibe stinks. The guy gets blown up and then he yells at fielders, gets into it with coaches, etc. His latest effort: 4 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR. All four runs scored before an out was recorded. Rodón has a 4.63 ERA (4.67 FIP) in 2024.

“I’m just not really giving my team a chance to win. Giving up runs early. I’ve just got to put up a zero in the first and try to stretch something together,” Rodón told Hoch. “... I try to attack fastballs in the zone and they’ve been getting on some heaters. When we get out there in the second, we start mixing. I think I’ve got to make that adjustment as the game begins, ready to use the whole arsenal from the get-go.”

Rodón said almost the exact exact thing after he got roughed up by the Blue Jays two weeks ago. In fact, he’s said something similar after each of his last four starts. Max Goodman (subs. req’d) was nice enough to round ‘em all up:

June 21st vs. Braves: "I wish I made an adjustment quicker and got to the slow stuff. I need to be better, man. It's not good. Go look back at Boston (on June 15th). It seemed like they attacked fastball up in the zone and got to that slider. Later on in the game, started mixing some soft stuff in, strung together a couple zeros at the end of that start. Going into this start, they had the same plan where they were attacking the heater.”

June 27th at Blue Jays: "Just probably more of a mix. When (the fastball) gets hit like that, the confidence in the fastball goes down a little bit. Just a little bit of both, mix in the slider, mix in some off-speed. Trying to get them out in different ways.”

July 3rd vs. Reds: “We featured a lot of off-speed today. Got away from the fastball a little bit. It worked out in some spots. Definitely pitching a little different than I'm used to, but I can do it.”

July 9th at Rays: “I think it's partially I try to attack with fastballs in the zone and they've been getting on some heaters. When we get out there in the second, we started mixing. We mixed changeup, we mixed curveball. I gotta make that adjustment as the game begins and be ready to use the whole arsenal from the get-go.”

Obviously the adjustment is not being made. Rodón gets blasted, says the same thing after the game, and we do it all again five days later. This is the worst Groundhog Day loop. Matt Blake shares the blame as well, he is the pitching coach after all, but ultimately it is on the player to make the adjustment. Rodón certainly gives off the impression of being stubborn and hardheaded. If he is, that isn’t helping matters.

“I think it’s being ready to adapt your plan early because it’s clear that teams that can hit the fastball are targeting him early,” Blake told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) about Rodon. “If you know that going in, and you’re trying to bully those teams, it’s gonna be hard. You’ve got to be willing to adjust your plan and move to different areas and change speeds. That’s the art of pitching. At some level, you’ve just gotta be willing to adjust, and he is. You’re not asking him to be crafty, but you’ve got to have a better rhythm than that.”

Rodón is not the only starter having a tough time. The entire staff is imploding. Rodón is the high-priced No. 2 though, and he’s putting the Yankees in an early hole almost every time out. That is not an exaggeration. In his last five starts Rodón has surrendered 3, 3, 5, 0, and 4 first inning runs. He gets hit hard in the first, then settles down, so we know there’s an effective pitcher in there. Why does Rodón have to get his hat handed to him before he figures it out? This isn’t a one-time thing. It’s happening over and over.

The models still love Rodón. He’s third among qualified pitchers in Stuff+! He’s just ahead of Tyler Glasnow. The models love Rodón’s stuff, but so do the hitters. They keep teeing off on him. This is a reason to be skeptical of Stuff+, not assume better days are ahead for Rodón. The under-the-hood numbers on his fastball are the same as his dominant seasons with the Giants …

… but his fastball stinks. Opponents are hitting .267 with a .545 SLG and .371 wOBA against it, and the expected stats are even worse: .290 xAVG, .618 xSLG, .405 xwOBA. Still only a 19.9% whiff rate too, below the 21.7% league average. Rodón gives up an early multi-inning homer on a fastball, then changes his pitch mix and pitches okay. It’s been a few starts of this now.

I don’t know what’s wrong with Rodón. I just know he hasn't been good, he’s coming up small at a time when the Yankees need someone to step up and get the season back on the rails, and I don’t enjoy watching him or having him on the team. I was glad the Yankees signed him, but sheesh. Rodón is trending toward being one of the worst free agent signings ever, Yankees or otherwise.

“It seems like we’re behind the barrel every time,” Rodón told Hoch. “I put the offense behind. It’s hard for them to claw back from. It’s hard for them to win games when you’re down by four, five, six, seven, eight runs early on.”

Good lord this team is slow

The stolen base drought is over. Juan Soto of all people stole a bag Wednesday night, the Yankees’ first since June 14th. At 21 games, it is the fourth longest stolen base drought in franchise history, and the longest since the franchise record 28-gamer in 1963. The Yankees attempted only four steals in the 21 games. It hasn’t helped that Anthony Volpe, the only consistent stolen base threat on the roster with Jon Berti out, has a .205 OBP in his last 32 games. Stealing bases is a non-option right now.

But really, the lack of stolen bases is just a symptom of a larger problem: The Yankees are painfully slow. I mean geez. Look at this table from a CBS post I slapped together earlier this week:

The numbers are from before the Rays series, but they didn’t change much in three games. This team has no speed element whatsoever. The one speed threat they have can’t get on base, and most players on the roster are below average runners. The fastest – “fastest” – non-Volpe Yankees have average sprint speeds (Grisham, Oswaldo Cabrera, Jahmai Jones). That’s as good as it gets. Average speed.

Forget stealing bases. The Yankees can barely go first-to-third on a single, advance on a fly ball or a pitch in the dirt, or put any sort of pressure on the defense. I’m not yearning for 1980s style baseball or the 2015 Royals, but you need to have some speed, otherwise you can’t generate offense when you don’t hit the ball out of the park. It takes three singles to score whoever’s on first base with this team.

The Yankees are built to slug and teams that slug tend to win a lot of games, but the Yankees have only three players who can consistently hit the ball out of the park right now. One’s a rookie with 21 big league games under his belt and the other two are generational talents who are slumping. The lack of speed and athleticism will be tough to fix in-season. This is an offseason fix. Until then, we’re stuck watching this.

Miscellany

Soto’s hand is definitely still bothering him (he grimaced and shook it out several times in Tampa), but he is getting back on track at the plate: 4-for-7 with a double and a loud opposite field homer (video) the last two games. That ninth inning walk against Pete Fairbanks on Thursday was electric. Soto makes walks exciting. Now we just need Aaron Judge to get going … Nestor Cortes just can not pitch on the road, huh? I don’t get it. He’s given up 14 runs in 64.2 innings at Yankee Stadium (10 starts) and 34 runs in 50.2 innings everywhere else (also 10 starts). The Rays are a bottom five offense in terms of runs scored per game and not one of the three starters could complete five innings in the series … Nice escape job by Tim Hill on Wednesday. He inherited the bases loaded with one out and a one-run lead, and he stranded all three runners with a strikeout and a lineout. Hill has definitely jumped Caleb Ferguson on the lefty reliever depth chart. Thursday night was Ferguson’s first appearance since July 4th and his first appearance with the score separated by fewer than three runs since June 19th. He hasn’t entered a game with the Yankees leading since June 14th. Hill doesn’t solve the bullpen’s swing-and-miss issue at all (10.3 K% in 2024 and 8.5 K% with the Yankees) but he’s getting outs right now. I’ll take it … Jahmai Jones never plays and J.D. Davis hasn’t taken an at-bat since last Thursday. What is the point of those two if Jose Trevino is gonna pinch-hit against lefty in the late innings of a close game like he did Thursday night? The Yankees are playing with a 24-man roster these days … And finally, Trevino threw a runner out! It was a great tag more than a great throw (video), but it counts the same. Runners had been 18 for their last 19 stealing bases against Trevino prior to that, dating back to the nine-steal game in Boston. Trevino has a 22% caught stealing rate, which is more or less league average (23%). Obviously it’s been well below that recently.   

Injury updates and roster moves

Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) could return soon after the All-Star break and may not even go out on a rehab assignment, Aaron Boone told Hoch. I look forward to Giancarlo hitting .091/.188/.367 for four weeks while trying to find his swing because he didn’t play in rehab games … Lou Trivino (elbow) has resumed throwing but things are going “a little bit slow,” Boone told Hoch. Yeah, we’re not gonna see him in any kinda meaningful capacity this year. The Yankees hold a $5M club option for Trivino for next season, but it’s hard to see them picking that up … Clayton Beeter (shoulder) may be done for the season. He hasn’t pitched since May 15th and will see a specialist soon, Brian Cashman told Greg Joyce. Beeter was up/down depth and a candidate to make spot starts. What a bummer. I’m glad he was able to get into a game during his brief time on the MLB roster earlier this year … JT Brubaker (elbow) exited Thursday’s rehab start after one inning and 16 pitches. Not sure what that’s about. He threw 57 pitches last time out and had been gradually building up. We’ll probably get word on him later today … And finally, the Yankees signed former Blue Jays lefty Tim Mayza to a minor league contract, reports Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d). Mayza and the Yankees have crossed paths more than a few times over the years:

• Blew out his elbow against the Yankees in 2019 (video)

• Gave up No. 61 to Judge in 2022 (video)

• DFAed after a 0 IP, 5 R outing against the Yankees in 2024 (video)

Mayza has been horrible this year (24 runs in 24.2 innings), but he’s been an effective left-on-left guy in the past, and the Yankees will see whether they can get him on track in Triple-A. Mayza is 32 though, and his sinker is down about 2 mph this season. He might just be at the end of the line. Minor league deal though, so no real risk. Not worth the energy to hate it. Plenty of other stuff to be mad about with this team.

Up next

Three games in Baltimore, then the sweet release of death. I mean the All-Star break. Here are the pitching matchups for the weekend:

• Friday at Orioles: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. LHP Cade Povich (7pm ET on YES)

• Saturday at Orioles: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez (4pm ET on YES, FS1)

• Sunday at Orioles: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Dean Kremer (11:30am ET on Roku)

Ah great, yet another streaming service. Here is all the info on Roku games. If I’m reading that correctly, it looks like you’ll be able to watch Sunday’s game on MLB.tv, even in the Yankees’ home market. Otherwise you have to sign up for a free Roku account and watch on their app. If I can’t watch on MLB.tv, then I’m just not gonna watch live. I’ll catch up later. (Sign up for a new service to watch a Rodón start? lmao)

As bad as the Yankees have been the last few weeks, the Orioles have not buried them. Baltimore just got swept at home by the last place Cubs and they’re 12-14 in their last 26 games. Despite their best efforts, the Yankees remain very much alive in the AL East race. Important series this weekend. Can the Yankees win their first series in a month and head into the All-Star break on a high note?

2. 2024 draft: Final pre-draft thoughts. The 2024 draft begins Sunday night and runs through Tuesday. The draft is only 20 rounds now, which is really all teams need following MLB’s minor league takeover and contraction plan. That’s another topic for another time though. Anyway, with the draft coming up, I have a few closing thoughts, so let’s get to ‘em.

Picks and slot values

Just to recap, here are the picks the Yankees hold this year, and their slot values. They neither gained nor lost picks through qualified free agency. The Yankees have their full allotment of draft picks this year. No more, no less. Here are the picks and their slots:

• 1st round (No. 26): $3,332,900

• 2nd round (No. 53): $1,721,200

• 3rd round (No. 89): $838,900

• 4th round (No. 119): $606,700

• 5th round (No. 152): $440,100

• 6th round (No. 182): $339,600

• 7th round (No. 211): $265,800

• 8th round (No. 241): $215,100

• 9th round (No. 271): $192,600

• 10th round (No. 301): $181,600

Every pick in rounds 11-20 has a $150,000 slot value and anything over $150,000 counts against the bonus pool. Same with undrafted free agents. The Yankees will make the No. 26 and No. 53 picks Sunday night during the ESPN/MLB Network broadcast. Monday is rounds 3-10 and Tuesday is rounds 11-20.

The Yankees have an $8,134,500 bonus pool, seventh smallest in baseball. Add in the 5% overage (the maximum you can go over before forfeiting a future first rounder) and the Yankees can max their bonus pool out at $8,541,225 this year. The Yankees have spent up to the 5% overage just about every year, though no team has ever gone beyond that and surrendered future picks.

Could the Yankees trade for an additional pick?

Technically yes. Will they? Probably not. Competitive Balance picks, the extra picks given to small market teams, are the only tradeable draft picks, and they can be traded any time prior to 5pm ET on Sunday. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says multiple executives have told him there are ongoing trade discussions about those picks and moves could be made. He calls a pick trade(s) “possible, though not necessarily likely.”

There are 14 of those Competitive Balance picks and 12 are tradeable. They can only be traded once each and two were traded in the offseason – No. 34 in the Corbin Burnes trade and No. 68 in the Gregory Santos trade – so they’re off the table. Here are the Competitive Balance picks that can be traded (and the associated bonus pool money, which is important):

Competitive Balance Round A
No. 35: Diamondbacks ($2,632,500)
No. 36: Guardians ($2,569,200)
No. 37: Pirates ($2,511,400)
No. 38: Rockies ($2,452,200)
No. 39: Royals ($2,395,000)

Competitive Balance Round B
No. 66: Rays ($1,260,200)
No. 67: Brewers ($1,226,800)
No. 69: Twins ($1,168,000)
No. 70: Marlins ($1,139,100)
No. 71: Reds ($1,110,600)
No. 72: Tigers ($1,093,600)
No. 73: Athletics ($1,076,900)

The D’Backs (Prospect Promotion Incentive pick for Corbin Carroll winning Rookie of the Year), Brewers (Baltimore’s Competitive Balance pick via the Burnes trade), and Twins (free agent compensation pick for Sonny Gray) all have extra picks in addition to their own Competitive Balance pick. They might be willing to trade a pick, though Arizona’s history suggests they’ll hang onto it and make all their selections.

This is a thin draft class so, in theory, extra picks are less valuable. Maybe that means teams will be more open to trading their Competitive Balance picks? The Royals are in contention. Would they trade the No. 39 pick for immediate MLB roster help? I dunno. Might as well call and ask. Ideally the Yankees would trade a spare part prospect (Yoendrys Gómez? Oswald Peraza?) for a pick and replenish the pipeline that way. I don’t expect the Yankees to trade for a Competitive Balance pick, but maybe they’ll surprise me.

Other prospects of note

I wrote up 16 draft prospects this year and I never get to as many as I want. It’s for the best though. This is a labor of love but it is also a lot of wasted words. Absolute best case scenario is the Yankees draft two of those 16 players, which still means 14 write-ups were a waste of time. And yet, I have a few more players I want to touch on briefly before draft day. Here’s the last batch of draft prospect write-ups.

Arkansas HS OF Slade Caldwell: Caldwell broke his leg with Team USA’s 18-and-under squad last summer and had a slow start this spring. His skill set is Gardnerian. He’s on the smaller side (5-foot-9) and he doesn’t have a ton of power, but he gets the bat on the ball consistently from the left side, he grinds out at-bats, and he runs very well and plays the hell out of center field. Caldwell is right in that back of the first round mix, where the Yankees pick.

North Carolina OF Vance Honeycutt: The best defensive player in the draft class regardless of position, Honeycutt is a game-changing defender in center, plus he has plenty of raw power and speed. The downside is he strikes out a ton (27.5 K% this spring), has a janky swing, and has trouble with non-fastballs. There is Drew Stubbs risk. The tools and athleticism are off-the-charts, but will he ever have the approach and contact skills to be anything more than a platoon/fourth outfielder who leaves you wanting more? Honeycutt only needs one team to believe they can unlock him to come off the board in the middle of the first round.

Florida HS SS Kellon Lindsey: Lindsey was literally the first player I put on my list of draft prospects to write about this year, and I just never got around to him. He’s a former quarterback who didn’t play in many showcases the last few summers, then he dropped football this year, and folks who’ve seen him say he is more advanced at the plate than most two-sport amateurs. Lindsey has top of the line speed and is getting Trea Turner comps for the skill set and power/speed potential. His track record as this is extremely short. He strikes me as the kinda prospect who goes to a team with extra picks and thus the ability to balance out the risk.

Wake Forest 1B Nick Kurtz: There’s a chance, maybe even a good one, Kurtz will be selected within the top 5-10 picks. He’s ranked as a top 10 prospect in the draft class and has a great track record – Kurtz led the nation with 78 walks and slashed .306/.531/.763 with 22 home runs this spring, including 14 homers in a 10-game span at one point – but the history of first round college first basemen is awful. The last one to have even a decent career was C.J. Cron (No. 17 in 2011), and Spencer Torkelson and Andrew Vaughn failing to gain traction isn’t helping. Teams are increasingly content to let these dudes slide into the second or third round. The expectation is Kurtz will be more of a middle of the first round guy in a weak draft class, and it’s not a far fall from the middle of the first round to No. 26. Hmmm.

Iowa HS RHP Joey Oakie: Oakie has an excellent baseball name. You win with guys named Joey Oakie, not Dan Smith or Bill Anderson. For real though, Oakie is a mid-90s sinker/mid-80s slider kid with a low arm slot (video), and I know there’s some belief within the game that a) he was underscouted as an Iowa high schooler, and b) he would really benefit from pitch design work. Oakie’s said to have great makeup and be very eager to learn. The Yankees love kids like that. It seems like he threads the needle between being maybe a bit of a reach at No. 26, but also unlikely to still be on the board at No. 53.

Duke LHP Jonathan Santucci: The Yankees have been connected to Santucci in a few reports this spring, but nothing that sounds too serious. He’s a pitch data guy with a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a big sweepy slider, and a changeup. Santucci has sketchy control and an injury history, including elbow surgery last year (bone chips) and a rib problem this spring. There’s said to be some concern with his medicals. It’s first round stuff and mid-round command, with an injury history on top of it. Santucci was seen as a likely first round pick coming into 2024 but is now viewed as more of a second rounder.

Final thoughts

Unlike the last few years, I don’t have much confidence that I wrote up the player the Yankees will select in the first round this year. It was well known they were in on Austin Wells in 2020, Trey Sweeney in 2021, and Spencer Jones in 2022. They were connected to George Lombard Jr. at points in 2023, though not as firmly as those other guys. I was confident I had the guy those other years.

This year? Beats me. It’s not a great draft class and there have been few reports connecting the Yankees to specific players, and certainly nothing as persistent as their interest in Wells or Jones. I really have no idea which way the Yankees might even be leaning, not even in broad terms (high school hitter, college pitcher, etc.). It adds to the mystery. It’ll be a great big surprise Sunday night.

This is an important draft for the Yankees. The farm system has taken a hit this year. Jones has been much better the last few weeks but is still running a 36.7 K%, third highest among the nearly 300 players with 300 plate appearances in the minors. Lombard and Roderick Arias (and Brando Mayea) haven’t had big breakout years, every notable pitching prospect except Will Warren got hurt, so on and so forth. Agustin Ramirez is the only guy in the system who’s significantly improved his prospect stock in 2024.

Farm systems go through ups and downs, it is the way of the world, and the Yankees are at a point where they need an infusion of talent. We’re not gonna know the full impact of the draft class for years. Would be nice if the first rounder hits the ground running though, and some of the mid-round arms the Yankees will inevitably take quickly blossom into the next Warren or Chase Hampton. I have no idea who the Yankees will take in the first round Sunday. I just know they kinda need to nail the pick.

“Don’t look at just the first round. Look at the entirety of what a team picks and the depth you’re going to get," scouting director Damon Oppenheimer told Bryan Hoch. "I don’t think a draft in baseball needs to be judged within a year or two years. I think it needs to take time for it to marinate, and to see what you get further down.”

3. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Erik Boland, the Yankees have had scouts and executives attend every one of Roki Sasaki’s starts this season. He wants to be posted this offseason but it’s still unclear if the Chiba Lotte Marines will actually post him. Even if he is posted, the Dodgers are the favorites to sign him. They probably have the bobbleheads sitting in storage already. The Yankees do need to build an information bank on the kid though. The Dodgers may be favored to sign Sasaki now, but we don’t know what the situation will be in six months, a year, two years, etc. Also, Sasaki has not pitched in a few weeks because of what his manager called the “poor condition of his right arm,” per the Associated Press. That sounds not great … And finally, the Mets designated lefty Joey Lucchesi for assignment earlier this week. He has spent most of the season in Triple-A and hasn’t been great there (4.20 ERA and 5.13 FIP), but the Yankees might’ve just lost Clayton Beeter for the season, Clarke Schmidt isn’t throwing off a mound yet, and Luis Gil is approaching uncharted workload territory. Claiming Lucchesi and stashing him in Triple-A seems worthwhile, even if he is nothing more than an innings dude for a thin RailRiders rotation. He’s making $1.65M this year (which is why he’ll likely clear waivers), and when you add in the 110% luxury tax rate, Hal Steinbrenner might balk at Lucchesi as a new No. 7 or 8 or 9 starter.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Many asked: WTF?

That sums up the state of the mailbag inbox right now. A lot of email from people in various states of dismay and/or anger asking what’s wrong with the Yankees. WTF sums it up nicely.

The answer to “what is wrong with the Yankees?” is everything. Everything is going wrong. Why? I'm not sure, but everything is going wrong. The pitching, the offense, every single thing has gone in the tank, and that’s scary. How many contenders have to improve in every facet of the game in-season? How many actually do it? The pitching is the biggest problem right now. The numbers heading into Thursday’s game (this is ERA / FIP / HR/9):

I’d say July’s numbers are encouraging, but it has been only nine games, and not one of the three starters could complete five innings against a bad Rays offense this week. The bullpen did great work in Tampa. The starters stunk.

Home runs always increase as the weather warms up and that has hit the Yankees hard. Gerrit Cole didn’t hit the ground running upon his return, Luis Gil hit a lull that may or may not be related to his workload, Nestor Cortes needs a platoon partner on the road, Carlos Rodón is regressing to the meh peripherals he put up earlier this year, and Marcus Stroman has no margin of error with his declining velocity. The bullpen has been better lately but has been mostly shaky.

The Yankees have allowed 6.13 runs per game during this 6-17 stretch, second most in baseball behind the Rockies (6.17). Before this 6-17 stretch, the Yankees were allowing only 3.24 runs per game. That was the best in baseball. The Yankees have gone from the best run prevention team in baseball to narrowly better than the Rockies – THE ROCKIES – almost literally overnight. 

The offense, meanwhile, is averaging 4.61 runs per game during the 6-17 stretch, which is above the 4.40 league average. That number doesn’t accurately represent the offense, right? The Yankees had games with 14 runs and 16 runs recently. Those are outliers. Always are. It’s unreasonable to wake up in the morning and expect your team to score 14-16 runs. Those games happened and the Yankees won those games, but they skew the small sample size offensive output.

In the other 21 games during the 6-17 stretch, the Yankees are averaging 3.62 runs, which is bad. Everyone in the lineup other than Ben Rice deserves blame. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto deserve less blame than the others because they were so good earlier this season, but they are slumping (Soto seems to be waking up), and they are contributing to his slide. Hard to believe there are two players in the league more important to their team’s success than Judge and Soto.

Jose Trevino’s return to Earth after his hot start was predictable. Alex Verdugo’s a bit less so. He started out well and it looked like he might be having a career year at age 28 as he approaches free agency. Instead, he’s hitting .231/.271/.370 (81 wRC+) since May 1st, and is continuing a trend of getting worse as he enters what should be his prime years. What even is this career arc?

Anthony Volpe started so well and it looked like the breakout had arrived. Remember that four-hit game against the Diamondbacks (video)? What fun. Since then he’s hitting .237/.288/.349 (82 wRC+) in over 400 plate appearances, which isn’t far off from last year’s .209/.283/.383 (84 wRC+) line. The shape of his production has changed – he’s traded homers for singles, and yuck – but it’s roughly the same output.

The Yankees have so much riding on Volpe. He’s the handpicked shortstop of the future. He’s the prospect they couldn’t possibly block with a top free agent like Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, or Trea Turner. He’s the player who was made off-limits for Luis Castillo and Matt Olson. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees staked their player development reputation on Volpe, and this is Year 2:

Volpe is a great defender but his lack of offensive development is a) a major big picture problem, and b) a reason the Yankees are struggling. He’s gotten worse as the season has progressed, not better. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I’m certain they would tell you they expected Volpe to be a better hitter than this 1,000 plate appearances into his career. He’s all glove and no bat, and those guys are available every offseason for a few million bucks.

Giancarlo Stanton’s injury combined with Trevino, Verdugo, and Volpe crashing back to Earth has really hurt the offense, as has DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres not contributing much. Verdugo and Volpe not continuing at their early season pace? Okay, LeMahieu is coming back and Gleyber’s track record says he will be better, so they’ll pick up the slack. Nope. Hasn’t happened. The lineup is so thin around Judge and Soto (and now Rice).

The short answer is the Yankees can't do anything well right now. It's not bad hitting or bad pitching. It's both. The long answer is the veteran pitchers are not providing the desired impact, the bullpen remains leaky, and some early offensive performances proved to be too good to be true. Add in Judge and Soto slumping at the same time and you have a recipe for a 6-17 stretch that is every bit as ugly as 6-17 leads you to believe.

Joshua asks: Without being unreasonable and overly dramatic, at what point can we start to worry? I will say that despite the pitching blowups, they don’t really worry me like the offense does. Judge and Soto can’t carry the team (I expect Soto to wake up soon). BABIP-reliant types like Verdugo and Volpe (IKF, Refsnyder, etc) seem to become complete black holes during their bad luck streaks because they don’t take pitches or work walks. HELP!

Oh it’s absolutely time to worry. General rule of thumb: When Aaron Boone says “it’s right in front of us,” it’s time to worry, and he broke it out after Sunday night’s loss to the Red Sox. I agree with Joshua and am more confident in the pitching sorting itself out than the offense, but I am worried about the pitching too. Gerrit Cole hasn’t looked like himself yet after the injury, Carlos Rodón is throwing BP, Marcus Stroman is J.A. Happing it up, Luis Gil is approaching his previous career high in innings, etc. There are red flags there. I’m worried. We are well beyond the “it’s just a slump” grace period, and the Yankees have a recent history of not being able to pull themselves out of these ruts. It’s time to worry.

Teddy asks: Since Judge has been the DH, his BA and OBP have dropped significantly, and I don't remember when he last hit a home run. Is it possible that by not playing the outfield daily, has he lacked focus? After all, most of the designated hitters are near retirement and very few are like a Big Papi (steroids?) or an Edgar Martinez. Grisham should not be playing, and in my mind, Judge should be in center field every day. What do you think?

Aaron Judge being in a slump and DHing nine times in the last 11 games does not exactly fill me with warm fuzzy feelings about his health. He took that Kevin Gausman fastball to the ribs in Toronto* (video) and the start of his slump doesn’t coincide perfectly with that (Judge went 3-for-4 with a homer the next day), but it is pretty close. The slump started two days later. Judge might be playing at something less than 100% right now, hence all the DH time (and slump).

Many hitters perform worse at DH than they do when they play the field because they don’t know what to do with themselves between at-bats. They can hit in the cage and watch video, but there is such a thing as paralysis by analysis. Playing the field is a chance to think about something else. Judge has performed worse at DH this year than when he plays the field, but historically, there’s been little to no drop off:

2024 as OF: .331/.453/.737 (225 wRC+) in 311 PA
2024 at DH: .235/.326/.469 (122 wRC+) in 93 PA

2021-23 as OF: .296/.398/.622 (180 wRC+) in 1,405 PA
2021-23 at DH: .277/.419/.601 (180 wRC+) in 372 PA

Judge has acknowledged his toe will require constant maintenance and I think (hope?) the Yankees are using Giancarlo Stanton’s injury as an opportunity to get Judge off his feet while they can. Trent Grisham has been better lately, and Grisham in center and Judge at DH is preferable to Judge in center and I guess J.D. Davis at DH? Jahmai Jones? Austin Wells at DH and Jose Trevino at catcher? The Yankees have opted for Grisham in center and Judge at DH.

Unless Judge is playing through an injury we don’t know about, I think his recent slump is just that, a slump. I don’t think it’s related to DHing. He was so out of this world good in May and June that eventually he was going to hit the skids a bit. The last few years tell us Judge is more than capable of being productive at DH. He hasn’t been this year, but it hasn’t even been 100 plate appearances. Judge hit a ball to the warning track Thursday. Hopefully that's a sign he's coming around.

* Gausman hitting Judge was intentional, right? I thought so at the time. Gerrit Cole hit Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the previous half-inning (video), and although Cole apologized when Guerrero reached first base, that was the SEVENTH batter the Yankees hit in the series. Vlad Jr. is their franchise player and at some point you have to expect a response after hitting seven guys in a single series.

Mike asks: If the Jays sell, how about a reunion with Chad Green?

I gotta say no, and I love Green. He turned 33 in May, he had more arm trouble earlier this year (teres major strain), and the 1.88 ERA hides some not great under-the-hood numbers in his 24 innings:

• Career low 23.9 K%

• Almost a career low 12.9% swinging strike rate (career low is 12.8% in 2018)

• Career high 92.5 mph exit velocity

• Career high 48.3% hard-hit rate

• Career low 95.2 mph fastball velocity

• Career low 22.4% fastball whiff rate

A lot of these are career worsts by a good margin too. Excluding his stint as a starter in 2016 and partial seasons around the pandemic and Tommy John surgery, Green’s previous career lows were a 31.4 K% and 27.9% fastball whiff rate in 2018. He’s lost velocity, he’s missing fewer bats, and he’s allowing more hard contact. At age 33 and with a recent arm injury history, that’s worrisome.

Also, Green is owed $10.5M next season, so he’s not cheap. I’m not against paying eight figures for a top reliever, but a) it seems like the Yankees are against it nowadays, and b) I’m not sure Green will be a top reliever much longer. I don’t mean this as a put-down: Green is a one-trick pony. He’s an extreme fastball pitcher and his fastball isn’t as good as it once was. Such is life for relievers entering their mid-30s.

(I am glad Green was still able to get paid. The poor guy blew out his elbow on a pickoff throw of all things a few weeks before hitting free agency. His Blue Jays contract had some complicated option decisions that have already been made. We now know it’ll pay him $23.25M from 2023-25.)

Ari asks: As we approach the All-Star break, can we start talking about DJ LeMahieu potentially having the worst season in the RAB (and Post-RAB) era? So far I think the only competition is 2010 Ramiro Pena,. 2014 Stephen Drew, and 2017 Austin Romine. But nobody expected Pena or Romine to hit, so it's basically a dead heat between Drew and LeMahieu, right?

By WAR, the worst players in the RAB era (since 2007) are mostly older guys at the end of the line, and a few spare parts who were really bad in part-time roles. Eight Yankees have reached -1.0 WAR in the RAB era:

1. 2013 Eduardo Núñez: -1.5 WAR
2. 2023 Oswaldo Cabrera: -1.5 WAR
3. 2021 Clint Frazier: -1.4 WAR
4. 2016 Alex Rodriguez: -1.2 WAR
5. 2015 Alfonso Soriano: -1.2 WAR
6. 2019 Miguel Andujar: -1.2 WAR (only 12 games!)
7. 2016 Mark Teixeira: -1.1 WAR
8. 2014 Stephen Drew: -1.0 WAR

LeMahieu has been better lately (5-for-12 in his last four games), but he entered Thursday at -0.3 WAR for the season. That’s in only 34 games too, putting him on pace for -0.9 WAR. That’s an oversimplification, but still. It’s never good when you’re talking about negative WAR in any sample size.

Even with his recent heater, LeMahieu is slashing .202/.296/.229 (60 wRC+) with a 57.1 GB% through 126 plate appearances. His exit velocity (88.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (38.0%) are essentially league average, but they are also career worsts. You can only be so productive with a ground ball rate approaching 60%. Forget dingers. Can he mix in a line drive now and then?

I don’t think LeMahieu is close to entering the “worst season in the RAB era” discussion yet. A-Rod hit .200/.247/.351 (56 wRC+) as a DH in 2016. That will be hard to top. LeMahieu could enter the mix next season if this is age-related decline and not just a slow return to form following the foot injury. Maybe the last few games are a sign he’s turning it around, but yeah, LeMahieu has been very bad this year.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)