June 21st, 2024: Judge, Cole, Rice, Trevino, Injuries, Mailbag

The great Willie Mays passed away earlier this week. He was 93. The list of ballplayers I wish I could have seen play is long and Mays is at the top. My grandfather was a die-hard Yankees fan and his favorite player was Joe DiMaggio, but he said Mays was the greatest player he’d ever seen. If you go by WAR, Mays had Derek Jeter’s career and Chipper Jones’ career put together. Aaron Judge could have his 2022 MVP season 10 more times, and he’d still be short of Mays. Calling Mays an all-time great isn’t enough. He was one of the most important and most luminous sports figures ever. RIP. Here now is today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. When do the Yankees play the AL Central again? They have been the inferior team against the Orioles, the Dodgers, and now the Orioles again. I know these first half games only tell you so much in the grand scheme of things, but I would like to see some evidence these Yankees can hang with the league’s best. Finishing a series against the team you’re trying to beat out for the division title with a position player on the mound is embarrassing, man. The 17 runs Thursday were the most the Yankees had given up in a game since Cleveland got them for 19 runs on Aug. 15th, 2019. Five of those runs were charged to Mike Ford. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games. 

Judge gets drilled, and the start of a new beef

There was one of those “the season flashes before your eyes” moments Tuesday. Juan Soto is incredible, but the Yankees built this season around Soto and Aaron Judge, so when Judge took a 94.1 mph Albert Suárez fastball to his left hand (video) and exited the game an inning later, yeah, I was worried. Fortunately he does not have a fracture, and was back in the lineup Thursday.

“Definitely pissed,” Judge told Bradley Locker about the hit-by-pitch, which I’m pretty sure is the first time I’ve heard him express anger about anything. “There was a couple balls up and in. It’s part of it. They like to throw in.”

I don’t think Suárez hit Judge intentionally. He threw a fastball up and in earlier in the at-bat and Judge fouled it back (video). I think he was trying to execute that pitch again and missed. I don’t think Keegan Akin hit Gleyber Torres in the hand intentionally later in the game either (video). But when you hit two players in the hand in the span of three innings, including the captain, you’re going to make enemies.

“Our captain got hit. We don’t take what happened lightly,” Alex Verdugo told Locker. “We’re none too pleased about it.”

“You go up and in on our best player and then hit Gleyber, nobody’s gonna be happy about it,” DJ LeMahieu told Joel Sherman.

Nestor Cortes threw up and in on Gunnar Henderson (video) and in on Anthony Santander (video) the half-inning after Torres got hit and yeah, those were clearly purpose pitches. He didn’t hit them, but he made them move their feet, and let the O’s know they’re not happy. I think Victor González hit Henderson on purpose Wednesday (video). Caleb Ferguson hitting Colton Cowser was just a bad pitch (video) – I’ve seen enough of Ferguson, he can go – but González hitting Henderson? That looked intentional. (The O’s got the last laugh when the run scored and they won the game and the series. The Yankees specialize in getting punked in situations like this.)

“No, not at all,” González said when asked whether he threw at Henderson intentionally (as every pitcher says when they hit a batter on purpose). “You’re trying to execute pitches when you’re out there and competing. We’re trying to execute an inside pitch there. Every time you’re out there you’re trying to execute the best pitch you can. Like I said, it just slipped out there.”

At this point, it does not matter what was intentional and what was an accident. These things take on a life of their own. Judge and the Yankees are not happy he got hit. Henderson and the Orioles are not happy he got thrown at one day and hit the next. Tensions are rising and these are division rivals that still have two more series to play, and could be neck-and-neck in the standings. The likelihood that things go from chippy to boiling over into a brawl or legit beanball war is rising.

The thing is, the Yankees have to protect Judge. He’s the captain, he’s their best player, he’s the best hitter in the league. He said he was “definitely pissed” about getting hit, something he never says, and you have to let the other team know it’s not okay. If you can’t pitch inside safely, then we won’t either. Some things can not slide. Hitting Judge and causing enough of a scare that he had to go for immediate tests is one of them. My concern with these things is always losing a player(s) to injury or suspension, but sometimes it just has to be done. Sometimes the players need to police the game themselves.

(Good to see Judge go deep and rip a single Thursday. I was ready for this to be a classic “he only misses one game, then hits .175 over the next 30 days” injury thing.)

Cole returns

The team with the best record in baseball welcomed the reigning AL Cy Young winner back to the rotation Wednesday night. Gerrit Cole made his season debut and looked like Gerrit Cole, or something close to Gerrit Cole. His fastball velocity and command aren’t all the way back but they’re close. His breaking stuff and changeup were on point though. When he needed to make a pitch, Cole went with a secondary.

“For the most part, the location was good. I felt like the pitches were crisp,” Cole told Bill Ladson after the game. “The consistency probably has to progress as well with the pitch count. There might be give and take as we keep going. We threw a great slider in a big spot. That’s encouraging. For the most part I made some good pitches when we needed to make some pitches. There was a fair amount of adrenaline, which is nice to have. A few too many high fastballs, but for the most part, it was a good jolt.”

The pitching line: 4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K on 62 pitches (video). Cole threw 70 pitches in his final rehab start, though Aaron Boone said they weren’t going to push him beyond that in his first MLB game because they knew there would be added adrenaline. Boone let Cole talk him into starting the fifth, then pulled him one pitch and one single later. That came back to bite the Yankees, somewhat predictably.

Could Cole have stayed in to face another few batters and get to 75-80 pitches? Yeah, almost certainly, but this has been a cautious build up from the start and deviating from the plan in the heat of the moment is when bad things happen. The Yankees don’t have the best track record with injury management, but when it comes to protecting Cole’s arm, I trust them to do the right thing.

Was it worth bringing Cole back with a 65-ish pitch limit when it was going to force a shaky bullpen to get a lot of outs? I mean, yes? It’s Gerrit Cole! He looked really good! Why waste bullets in the minors? The alternative was giving Cole a fourth rehab start and starting I guess Will Warren in Cody Poteet’s place against the O’s or Braves this week (more on Poteet’s injury in a bit). How deep do you expect Warren to go in his MLB debut against one of those offenses?

Cole was great, the bullpen was not. The bullpen messing everything up is an unfortunate theme these days. In his first game back, Cole did not look like the Cy Young version of himself, but he didn’t appear far off either. Build arm strength, hone in the fastball command, get stretched out to 100 pitches. That’s all that’s left. A good return, it was, even if the bullpen spoiled it.

“It was kind of a special game for me a little bit,” Cole told Ladson. “It has been a long few months. A lot of emotions. I wasn’t too sure how I was going to feel out there, but locating the ball quells the nerves a little bit.”

All Rice, here comes Ben

The Yankees could have rolled with DJ LeMahieu at first base and Oswaldo Cabrera at third base in the wake of Anthony Rizzo’s injury and maybe in the not-to-distant past they would have, but the Yankees are operating with more urgency this year, so they called up Ben Rice to take over at first base. Three games into his career, Rice is 2-for-8 with two walks and zero strikeouts, and one of the walks came after he was down 0-2 in the count.

“Whirlwind is probably the best word, right?” Rice told Ron Blum about his first day as a big leaguer. “I felt like I was kinda on the move the whole day, running around trying to settle in, get acclimated and everything. And then kind of just get thrown right into it, into the game.”

Rice recorded his first MLB hit in his second at-bat, tomahawking an elevated 95.0 mph heater into right field for a single. He was all smiles as he ran to first base and after he got to the bag (video). The most wholesome Yankee. “Just an unreal experience. Totally surreal. I’m going to remember it forever,” Rice told Blum. He walloped a ball to the wrong part of the park the next night Right field, Ben. Aim for right field.

I’m sad things are where they are with Rizzo, but he’s pulled only 10 95+ mph pitches in the air since the collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. It took all of two at-bats for Rice to show he can turn on velocity up in the zone, something we have little evidence Rizzo can do at this point in his career. Rice already has as many barrels (one) as Rizzo did in his last 31 games. He’s more of a threat at the plate.

Defensively, Rice is a catcher learning first base – he played fewer than 500 innings at first in the minors – and his inexperience showed two innings into his MLB debut. Ben, my dude, where are you going?

No, Cortes didn’t cover first, but he’s a lefty who falls off the mound to the third base side. He wasn’t gonna beat Austin Hays to the bag. That’s the second baseman’s ball and a routine-ish 4-3 putout. Rice got a little too excited there and went for the ball. It’s fine. It didn’t come back to bite the Yankees. But with a bullpen that doesn’t miss bats, Rice will be replaced for defense late in close games, and it’s the right move.

“He’s still obviously learning the position and not even a finished product over there,” Boone told Blum. “But we just felt like he was the guy that could potentially give us the greatest impact.”

It has only been three games, but I’ve been impressed with Rice’s at-bats. Seems like he has a plan at the plate and knows what he’s doing. The Yankees do need him to produce, they can’t really afford to carry a rookie going through growing pains, but it looks like he has a chance at the plate. In the field? Eh, it’ll get better. Welcome, Ben. Please clear the low bar that has been set at first base.

On Trevino’s arm

So was the rest of baseball not aware Jose Trevino has the weakest arm in the game* before the Red Sox stole nine bases on Sunday Night Baseball? Runners are 14-for-15 stealing bases in Trevino’s last three games. They attempted only 17 steals in his first 43 games. Trevino’s caught stealing rate was 33% on Saturday. It’s now 23%, which is still above the 22% league average, but is obviously trending down.

* Trevino’s average throw was 75.0 mph last year. It’s 71.6 mph this year. Where did that 3.4 mph go? Is it from the wrist surgery? Is he playing through a nagging injury or something?

Trevino is the best framer in baseball, an above-average blocker, and his .257/.312/.429 (112 wRC+) line has been a pleasant surprise. Go by Statcast’s values and Trevino’s game breaks down like so:

• +1 run hitting

• -1 run baserunning

• +6 runs framing

• +5 runs blocking

• -2 runs throwing

It all adds up to an above-average catcher. We can’t just hand-wave away the throwing though, right? It is a major weakness and the kinda thing the opponent can exploit in a close game. We’ve seen it happen the last few days. The Yankees aren’t gonna replace Trevino – bringing in a new catcher in-season is difficult anyway because they have so much to learn – so they have to figure out a way to address this.

The pitch clock and disengagement rules limit what the pitcher can do to control the running game. Trevino loves to make snap throws to first (and third) and those can help keep runners close, plus the Yankees could pitch out. Remember pitchouts? They’re going extinct because teams have determined the negative value of a ball exceeds the positive value of a possible caught stealing, but when your catcher can’t throw, you do what you have to do. You can’t let every single and every walk turn into a double.

This issue has been looming all year, it’s not like Trevino’s throwing suddenly went in the tank, but it has been exposed for all to see this week. The Yankees play the Braves (28th in steals), Mets (13th), and Blue Jays (24th) in their next three series. If those teams run wild on Trevino, then we’ll know for certain this is a major issue that requires immediate attention, and I don’t know how you fix it without replacing the personnel.

Miscellany

The regression monster has come for Luis Gil. When you’re going well, this ground ball hooks foul. When you’re not, it stays inside the line and clears the bases. The Orioles hunted fastballs early in the count – eight of the 15 batters Gil faced swung at the first pitch (Gil had a 28% first pitch swing rate entering the game) – and Gil left too many pitches in the middle of the plate. He was never gonna keep up the 1.82 ERA and .179 BABIP he had through 12 starts. Through 15 starts, that’s now a still excellent 2.77 ERA and .222 BABIP. Gil is up to 81.1 innings. He threw only four innings last year and 25.2 innings before Tommy John surgery in 2022. Maybe he’s hitting a wall? … Clay Holmes gave up his first homer in 45 games Tuesday night and he’s surrendered two runs in each of his last three appearances. Bad time for a rut, Clay. Also, Holmes has struck out only nine of the last 68 batters he’s faced since May 10th, or 13.2%. This bullpen is allergic to missing bats. Non-Trevino relievers faced 72 batters in the Orioles series and struck out 12, or 16.7%. I know I mention this every single post, but this is a big problem, and it keeps biting the Yankees. More runs allowed (15) than strikeouts (12) for the non-Trevino relievers in the series! … Weird few weeks on the bases for Soto. He had the interference on the infield fly in Anaheim, another near interference a few days later (video), then he ran over Jordan Westburg on Tuesday (video). Juan, what are you doing? You’re not allowed to run over a defender attempting to field the ball. If the play takes the defender in front of you, you either have to stop or go around him, and if you get tagged out, then you’re out. That’s baseball. It seems Yankees’ baserunning fundamentals have rubbed off on the Great Juan … Shoutout to Giancarlo Stanton. The .301 OBP is an eyesore, but we’re not even at the halfway point and he’s got 18 home runs, plus a ton of big hits. I would have signed up for his .243/.301/.490 (125 wRC+) line before the season in a heartbeat. Will it last? I hope so. This is just an acknowledgement of his production to date, not any sort of statement about its sustainability … Ron Marinaccio threw 34 pitches Wednesday and 18 pitches Thursday, and he’s the only reliever in the bullpen with options. It was no surprise then that he was send down Thursday evening. There will be a fresh arm in the bullpen Friday. I'm just not sure who (40-man roster guys Jake Cousins and Cody Morris both threw 20-something pitches Thursday, so probably not one of them) … And finally, Gil’s stinker Thursday means the streak of the starter going at least four innings in every game is over. It was a good run. At 76 games, it’s the longest such streak in Yankees history (at any point of the season, not just the beginning).

Up next

For the fourth time in five series, the Yankees will play a team with one of baseball’s nine best records. This weekend the Braves come to the Bronx. It’s their first visit since 2021. Here are the pitching matchups:

• Friday vs. Braves: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP Chris Sale (7pm ET on Apple TV+)

• Saturday vs. Braves: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Charlie Morton (7pm ET on FOX)

• Sunday vs. Braves: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Max Fried (1:30pm ET on YES, MLBN)

Yet another Saturday night game. This is the last one until late July, thankfully. Also, there is no YES broadcast Friday. It is an Apple TV+ exclusive, unlike the Dodgers game two weeks ago. It is what it is.

The Braves have won six of their last seven games. They were 17-24 in the 41 games prior to that, and they scored an MLB low 138 runs in those 41 games. That’s 3.34 runs per game! The White Sox scored the second fewest runs (146) during that stretch. We’re talking about a Braves team that slugged .501 last year. An individual player with a .501 SLG had a great year. A team slugging .501 is insane.

Atlanta has scored 39 runs in their last seven games, so the bats are waking up. Austin Riley’s batting line sat at .220/.288/.330 (77 wRC+) a week ago. It’s now up to .246/.315/.404 (104 wRC+), and he has seven extra-base hits in his last six games. Matt Olson’s hitting the ball over the fence again and Marcell Ozuna has been one of the five best hitters in baseball: .316/.390/.599 (175 wRC+).

Ronald Acuña is done for the year and Michael Harris II is out with a hamstring strain, so the Braves have a patchwork outfield – Adam Duvall, Jarred Kelenic, and a Ramón Laureano/Forrest Wall platoon – until they can come up with something better at the deadline. That weird 41-game stretch with only 138 runs scored is over. The Braves are not at full strength but they have a great offense, and it’s swinging well now.

Sale is healthy and productive at the same time for the first time since 2018 – 2.98 ERA (2.34 FIP) with 30.7 K% – and Atlanta’s needed it with Spencer Strider’s season ending after two starts. The Braves are missing several important players, but top to bottom, it’s an excellent team. Perhaps this weekend the Yankees will finally win a series against a legit World Series contender.

2. Injury updates and roster moves. It’s been a busy week on the injury and roster moves front. More than I can recap in the usual rapid fire format. Here’s the latest in addition to Gleyber Torres leaving Thursday’s game with a groin injury Aaron Boone said is not “anything major.” Gleyber will have a groin transplant next week, I assume. 

Rizzo out eight weeks

The fracture in Anthony Rizzo’s arm – a fracture to the radial neck of his arm, specifically – is expected to sideline him at least eight weeks, the Yankees announced. He doesn’t need surgery. Rizzo will be shut down from baseball activity for at least 4-5 weeks, then begin ramping up. He’s already on the 60-day injured list. The earliest Rizzo can return is Friday, Aug. 16th.

"I've never gone through this. This is my first fracture, bone break, so I assume I will heal fast with the treatment we have, but we'll see how it feels,” Rizzo told Jorge Castillo. “… "It's not ideal, but it's how you look at it, right? This is part of it. The team's in a great position. Obviously there's nothing better than playing baseball. It's what we love to do. But now it's just about focusing on getting better and coming back and helping."

The 60-day injured list means Rizzo is out until after the July 30th trade deadline. My concern is the Yankees will not address first base at the deadline and instead count on Rizzo to bounce back at the plate, something they’ve been waiting for him to do for over a year now. Perhaps Ben Rice will mash and make this a moot point, but if there’s a first base upgrade to be had at the deadline, it’s worth pulling the trigger.

Rizzo, 35 in August, is hitting .223/.289/.342 (84 wRC+) this year and .203/.282/.296 (68 wRC+) in close to 500 plate appearances since the collision with Fernando Tatis Jr.. The underlying contact quality numbers are terrible as well. I didn’t want Rizzo to get hurt, but on the field, this is not a huge loss for the Yankees. Hopefully he heals quickly and returns to form. I just don’t see how you can count on that though.

Domínguez out eight weeks

Jasson Domínguez completed his Tommy John surgery rehab and immediately pulled his left oblique. Rookie mistake. You’re supposed to pull your oblique before you get activated and optioned, that way you keep collecting those sweet big league checks and service time. Anyway, Boone initially described it as a “moderate” strain, then a day later he called it significant and said El Marciano will miss up to eight weeks.

“It’s a pretty significant strain,” Boone told Bill Ladson. “So it’s probably up to eight weeks before he plays in games.”

Eight weeks means Domínguez will be out well into August. Best case scenario at this point is a smooth recovery thanks to his martian DNA, he’s back on the field in August, and we see him as the position player call up in September. The outfield depth chart is getting mighty thin:

1. Aaron Judge (had the HBP scare)
2. Juan Soto
3. Alex Verdugo
4. Trent Grisham
5. Jasson Domínguez (out eight weeks with oblique strain)
6. Everson Pereira (out for season with internal brace surgery)
7. Taylor Trammell
8. Greg Allen (on Triple-A injured list with unknown injury)
9. Oscar Gonzalez?

Boone said he considered playing Giancarlo Stanton in left field in Fenway Park last weekend, but backed off. He’s not an outfield option at this point. The Yankees could always stick Oswaldo Cabrera out there, if necessary, but yeah, they’re spread thin. One more injury between now and Domínguez’s return and we’ll see Trammell back in the Bronx. He’s hitting .220/.325/.350 (78 wRC+) with the RailRiders, by the way.

Beyond losing depth, Domínguez needs to play. He missed the first few months of the season with his Tommy John surgery rehab, and now he has to hit pause because of the oblique. We’re closing in July and he has 94 plate appearances, mostly in a rehab setting (you’re playing this many innings tonight, etc.). This is still a 21-year-old prospect. Domínguez needs reps and he’s not getting them. Just a bummer of an injury for El Marciano. This is turning into a lost season.

(Unless the Yankees call up Domínguez and put him on the MLB 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot, this injury ensures his free agency will be pushed back from the 2029-30 offseason to the 2030-31 offseason. Domínguez needs to spend 51 days in the minors on an optional assignment to get the extra year of control. His rehab assignment ended June 12. That was Day 1 of 51. Eight weeks will cover the 51 days needed.)

Yankees sign Hill

Do you think Matt Blake ever gets tired of being handed reclamation project pitchers? I know it’s his job to turn freely available talent into positive contributors to save the team money, and I’m sure on some level he loves the challenge, but I wouldn’t blame the guy if he said “we’re the Yankees, can’t you give me one big ticket reliever?” to his reflection in the bathroom mirror every morning.

The latest reclamation projection: Tim Hill. The Yankees had interest in him way back during the 2019-20 offseason, the early days of the Blake era, and they signed Hill this week. He started the season with the White Sox, threw 23 innings with a 5.87 ERA (3.45 FIP), then got released. He gave up a three-run homer in his first inning as a Yankee on Thursday, so maybe the reliever dumped by the 20-56 White Sox isn’t some hidden gem?

Hill, 34, is excellent at keeping the ball on the ground (65.6% in 2024 and 60.6% career) and that’s it. He does not miss bats – his 10.4 K% (!) is lowest among qualified relievers this year – so more balls in play are coming. Entering Thursday, lefties had hit .325/.394/.429 (.364 wOBA) against him since the start of last season. Righties have hit .373/.426/.519 (.407 wOBA) against him during that time. 

Blake and the Yankees turned Michael Tonkin into a good reliever and they’ll try to work their magic again with Hill. It’s also possible he’s one and done, as in one day and done. Ron Marinaccio was already sent down for a fresh arm. If the Yankees want a second fresh reliever after Thursday’s disaster, Hill could get the axe too. I guess we’ll find out. I have a hard time believing he’ll be around for the long haul (I said the same about Tonkin, so who knows).

Hamilton out with lat strain

Another bullpener bites the dust. Ian Hamilton has a lat strain and will be shut down 3-4 weeks. He received a PRP injection the other day. Hamilton said it started to bother him during the Kansas City series last week, then it really grabbed over the weekend in Boston. Between the shutdown and build up period, we’re not going to see Hamilton until after the All-Star break, and probably not until August.

Hamilton was so good last year and to begin this season (seven strikeouts in 5.2 scoreless innings in his first three outings), but, in the 24 appearances since, he has a 5.63 ERA (3.90 FIP) with strikeout (19.2%), walk (11.7%), and ground ball (42.1%) rates that just aren’t good enough for high leverage work. Hopefully this injury and the recent bout with COVID explains the poor performance and he returns good as new.

The Yankees are now without Hamilton and Jonathan Loáisiga, their top two setup men coming into 2024, as well as Nick Burdi, who has the highest strikeout rate (26.7%) among righties in the bullpen. I have little doubt the Yankees will get bullpen help at the deadline. Who and how many relievers will they add? I dunno, but they need bullpen help badly. We’re talking two or three relievers, not just one. 

Poteet out with triceps strain

One starter returns and another goes down. Rather than option Cody Poteet to make room for Gerrit Cole, Poteet was placed on the injured list with a triceps train. It appears to be minor, his shutdown period is only 1-2 weeks, but still. The next-in-line depth starter won’t be available for at least 15 days. That means Will Warren is again at the front of the call up line in the event the Yankees need a starter.

With Poteet and Clayton Beeter injured, Scranton’s rotation is Warren, Edgar Barclay, Yoendrys Gómez, Tanner Tully, and organizational swingman Josh Maciejewski. Don’t be surprised if the Yankees bring in a scrap heap arm just to give the RailRiders innings. It might not even be a name guy with previous MLB experience. It could be an independent leaguer. The upper level rotation depth is stretched thin.

Brubaker and Effross begin rehab assignments

They live! Tommy John surgery havers JT Brubaker and Scott Effross began their minor league rehab assignments Wednesday (Effross also had back surgery). Tommy John guys get the usual 30-day rehab window plus up to three 10-day extensions, so the latest these two can be activated is Saturday, Aug. 17th. Brubaker will be built up as a starter. Effross is of course a reliever, which could hasten his return.

Brubaker, who came over in a March trade with the Pirates, threw more than I expected: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K on only 22 pitches. I figured the first rehab start would be one, maybe two innings. I guess the low pitch count bought Brubaker a third inning. Effross struck out one in a 1-2-3 inning. He threw six pitches. Both pitched in the same game for Low-A Tampa, so we have Statcast data. Their velocities:

Both are missing a little velocity from 2022, the last time they pitched in the big leagues, though I wouldn’t say missing 1-2 mph in your first rehab start after a 1.5-year layoff is alarming. It’s the 3-5 mph drops that make you worry. Effross should pitch again this weekend. Brubaker lines up to make his next start Monday, though that’s the universal off-day in the minors, so look for him Tuesday. (The Florida Complex League plays on Monday. Brubaker could pitch there I guess.)

For what it’s worth, Brubaker and Effross both have options remaining, so the Yankees can stash them in Triple-A once they’re done with their rehab assignments. Chances are both will be needed at the big league level though. Brubaker to lighten the load on Luis Gil, Effross in the shaky bullpen. These two are still a few weeks away, but the first rehab game is a big step. They’re pitching in real games, not hiding away on the Tampa backfields playing catch and pitching behind an L screen.

Miscellany

Clarke Schmidt (lat) was transferred to the 60-day injured to clear 40-man roster space for Ben Rice. This is Week 3 of his 4-6 week shutdown period, so this doesn’t change anything. Schmidt is eligible to return Friday, July 26th, though he’ll likely be out beyond that … Agustin Ramirez was promoted to Triple-A Scranton as the corresponding move when Rice was called up. Ramirez slashed .289/.372/.570 (159 wRC+) with 16 home runs and strong strikeout (16.5%), walk (10.7%), and swinging strike (10.8%) rates in 58 Double-A games. He is 1-for-9 through two Triple-A games. I’m a bit surprised he was promoted. Ramirez is still rough around the edges behind the plate, but Double-A wasn’t much of a challenge for him at the plate, so the Yankees moved him up. Ramirez is 22 and this is his first minor league option year. He can be stashed in Triple-A through the 2026 season with no roster difficulties. I wonder how long it’ll be until he hits his way to the Bronx … Jack Neely, one of my Prospects to Know, was promoted to Triple-A as well. He had a 2.61 ERA (2.13 FIP) with a gaudy 39.2 K% in 31 Double-A innings before the promotion. The 9.2 BB% is manageable too. Since the start of last season Neely ranks second in strikeout rate (38.8%) and first in swinging strike rate (21.1%) among the 786 pitchers with at least 90 minor league innings. Honestly, the Yankees should just call him up. They badly need a bat-missing reliever and they’ve cycled through Clayton Andrews, Anthony Misiewicz, and Tim Hill this week. What are we doing here? It won’t be difficult to open a 40-man roster spot and Neely has to go on the 40-man after the season anyway. The bullpen is shaky. Don’t be afraid to try the kid.

3. 2024 draft prospect: Mississippi State OF Dakota Jordan. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.

Jordan, 21, was a possible top 10 rounds pick out of high school two years ago, though he was not drafted because he was committed to play baseball and wide receiver at Mississippi State. He gave up football and hit .307/.397/.575 with 10 homers and a 13.6 BB% in 44 games as a freshman, impressive numbers for a first year player in the SEC. Jordan did strike out in 25.0% of his plate appearances, however.

This season Jordan slashed .354/.459/.671 with 20 homers and a 15.2 BB%, and also an eyesore of a 29.0% strikeout rate. That’s as high a strikeout rate as you’ll find from a potential first rounder. In his two years with the Bulldogs, Jordan struck out 130 times in 474 plate appearances, or 27.4%. Here’s where the latest draft rankings have him:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 33

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 25

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 18

• MLB Pipeline: No. 29

For what it’s worth, both Carlos Collazo (subs. req’d) and Keith Law (subs. req’d) have the Yankees taking Jordan in their latest mock drafts, though neither explicitly says they’re in on him. It seems to be more speculation and connecting the dots because of Jordan’s similarities to Spencer Jones. Hmmm. Anyway, here’s video and here’s part of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

Jordan may have more bat speed than anyone in the 2024 Draft, and his lightning-fast right-handed swing and strength produce huge exit velocities and at least plus power to all fields. He made strides with his pitch recognition and plate discipline as a freshman, inspiring confidence that his pop will translate at higher levels. He still needs to learn how to handle breaking balls … While Jordan has at least plus speed and may have plus-plus straight-line quickness, he's still learning how to make the most of it. He's not aggressive on the bases and is shaky in the outfield, where he spent most of his freshman year in left. His arm has gotten a little stronger since high school and now grades as average.

Law (subs. req’d) says Jordan’s tools rival anyone’s in the class – “He’s a 70 runner with 80 raw power, 80 bat speed, and a 60 arm at worst,” he wrote, referring to the 20-80 scouting scale – though Collazo (subs. req’d) notes Jordan’s 64.9% contact rate is third lowest among the dozens of college hitters in Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects. For reference, only one qualified MLB hitter has a lower contact rate: Nolan Gorman at 63.5%. Yeesh.

At the same time, Jordan had a 111.4 mph 90th percentile exit velocity this spring, fifth highest among the college hitters in Baseball America’s top 500. Aaron Judge has a 111.2 mph 90th exit velocity this season, for reference. There’s a big difference between doing that with metal bats in college than with wood bats in the big leagues, but still. It’s top of the line hard-hit ability. I might as well embed Collazo’s graph to show how extreme Jordan’s low contact rate/high exit velocity combination is:

The Yankees value exit velocity, maybe not quite as much as in the past, but they definitely value it, and few 2024 draftees provide it like Jordan. He’s a great athlete with great natural gifts. The challenge is turning them into baseball skills, and getting the contact rate to an acceptable level. The Yankees are trying to do it now with Jones, and it’s not coming easy. That said, Jones is 6-foot-6. Jordan is 6-foot-0. It might be easier to boost contact rate with shorter levers.

Simply put, Jones is a boom or bust prospect with tremendous upside. He could one day hit 40 home runs or he could never get out of Double-A. The Yankees went for a similar profile with Jones in 2022 and with Judge in 2013, though the Yankees had two extra picks in 2013, and were able to balance the risk. Contact rate issues carry heightened risk, though you only need to get Jordan to a below-average contact rate to get above-average production. If the Yankees think they can do that, yeah, I could see them pouncing.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Jesse Rogers, Triple-A games will use the challenge system rather than the fully automated strike zone beginning next week. That’s a pretty good indication MLB plans to use the challenge system at the big league level rather than jumping right into a fully automated zone, whenever that happens. Rogers says it will be no sooner than 2026 and that makes sense. MLB is still fine-tuning the shape of the automated strike zone and the strike zone is way, way too important to rush anything. I prefer the challenge system myself, and so do teams and players, per Rogers. Hopefully the challenge system normalizes offense in Triple-A. The International League averages are a .254/.346/.424 line with 23.5 K% and 11.3 BB%. So many walks. Who wants more walks?

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Before we get into this week’s mailbag, I just want to say thank you for all your questions each week. It’s been a while and I need to say it again. I can not possibly get to all the questions, so please don’t take it personally if I don’t answer yours. I pick the ones a) I can actually answer, and b) seem most relevant at the time, and do what I can. Thank you all for reading, your support, and your questions. I wish I could answer them all, but there are only so many hours in the day. Let’s get to this week’s mailbag now.

Several asked: What about José Abreu?

I got a handful of Abreu questions after the Astros released him last week and all but one came before Anthony Rizzo’s injury, which tells you how people felt about the first base situation at the time. 

Abreu’s a hard no at this point. If the Yankees want to give him a minor league deal and see what he does in Triple-A, fine, but he looks done as a productive big leaguer at age 37. There were red flags during his final season with the White Sox and the downward trends have continued. This is textbook aging curve stuff:

Abreu is very well respected within the game and within the clubhouse, and the Astros tried to make it work by sending him to the minors to work on things (Abreu had to agree to the demotion given his service time), but it didn’t help. He hit .237/.296/.383 (86 wRC+) last year and was hitting .124/.167/.195 (2 wRC+) this year before the release. Abreu looks done. Like done done.

I know they’re not having the best year, but the Astros know what they’re doing, and they determined Abreu is not salvageable. They decided they were better off eating the $30M-ish remaining on his contract to get him off their roster than to keep him despite all he brings in the clubhouse. Abreu was a great player for a long time, and it appears he’s at the end of the line. The Yankees should look elsewhere for first base help.

Sam asks: I've heard that Ben Rice is really rated high in his SEAGER score -- what does that mean actually? From what I can gather it means he makes good swing decisions. Has this stat been around long enough to be a predictor of big league production? Does Rice have major league comps w/ his seager score? 

Short version: SEAGER is a swing decision metric cooked up by Baseball Prospectus’ Robert Orr. It’s more than swinging at strikes and not swinging at balls. It grades how well a hitter swings at hittable strikes, because not every pitch in the zone is a pitch the hitter can drive. Corey Seager is the king of this, so Orr named the stat after him and came up with a convoluted acronym: SElective AGgression Engagement Rate.

Orr has published SEAGER data back to 2000 at his site and it correlates with ISO (extra-bases per at-bat) better than other plate discipline metrics like chase rate, etc. Set the minimum to 400 plate appearances and the best SEAGER scores are 2022 Juan Soto (29.3), 2021 Bryce Harper (28.0), 2021 Aaron Judge (27.1), etc. Guys like that. The worst belong to 2023 Bryson Stott (1.0) and 2023 Alek Thomas (1.1)

In their Yankees prospects list (subs. req’d), BP said Rice is a “SEAGER score darling.” That’s based on sourced data from his time in High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset, not public Statcast data. Here’s the little SEAGER data we have on Rice:

• 2021 Low-A Tampa: 22.8 SEAGER in 78 PA

• 2022 Low-A Tampa: 20.2 SEAGER in 224 PA

• 2023 Low-A Tampa: 14.1 SEAGER in 42 PA

• 2024 Triple-A Scranton: 16.4 SEAGER in 50 PA

• 2024 MLB: 43.5 (lol) in 9 PA entering Thursday

I’m not sure what to make of such a tiny sample. Rice’s Triple-A SEAGER puts him in the same range as Quad-A mashers like Matt Mervis, Ryan Noda, and Taylor Trammell. The top Triple-A hitters in SEAGER are in the 25.0 range and are guys like David Bote, James Outman, Donovan Solano, Spencer Torkelson, and Luis Urías. Players who have had MLB success in the past but aren’t mainstays.

The people I’ve talked to in the game have said Rice grades out extremely well in their models, and we can safely assume those models are better than what’s available publicly. Basically everyone agrees Rice has excellent plate discipline and swings at the right pitches. His exit velocity is good but not elite, and he does not provide much on the bases or in the field. Rice has a narrow path to being a productive big leaguer. He’s gotta hit and hit a lot.

I didn’t really answer the question and I’m not sure I can answer it just because we have so little data on Rice. Most of his SEAGER data came prior to his 2023 breakout, and he hasn’t been in Triple-A or MLB all that long. We should circle back in a few weeks. By all accounts, Rice is a very disciplined hitter. We just can’t fully confirm that with the little information available to us right now.

Mark asks: Tommy Change Up is getting blasted due to having only one (effective???) pitch. The change up is not a change of pace when that’s all he throws! Should the Yankees only use him in blowouts and not allow him to use his change up until he gets another effective pitch? I know his fastball velocity is down. Is his change up velocity also down so the difference is the same?

I wrote briefly about Tommy Kahnle’s overreliance on his changeup last July. He’ll throw changeup after changeup after changeup without ever throwing a fastball to set it up, and when you do that, all you’re really throwing is a BP fastball. I don’t think this is strictly a Kahnle thing though. Sunday night Marcus Stroman threw Ceddane Rafaela eight sliders/slurves in an eight-pitch at-bat, and eventually Rafaela timed one up for an RBI single (video).

The Yankees have been on the “if you have a great pitch, throw it a lot” train for years now, though it does seem like they overdo it at times. Even if it’s a great pitch, if you show it to a hitter enough times within an at-bat, he’s going to catch up to it. Sometimes you have to throw something else just to put something else in the hitter’s mind. Rafaela had no reason to look for anything but a slider. He knew it was coming.

Kahnle does this often with his changeup. In the past, he could get away with it because his changeup was so good. Nowadays his velocity is down about 2 mph across the board. Although the separation between the fastball and changeup is the same, it is less velocity overall, so hitters do have more time to react. Add in the predictability because he throws so many changeups, and Kahnle has a 3.86 ERA (6.14 FIP).

Given his performance, yes, the Yankees should demote Kahnle out of high leverage work until his velocity returns (if it returns), and they’ve done that already. He’s entered with the Yankees up eight, up four, down one, down three, and down five in his last five appearances. The real question is would the Yankees get multiple relievers at the deadline and DFA Kahnle to clear roster space, or are they just gonna bank on him bouncing back at some point? He’s got a few weeks to show there’s still something in the tank.

Rob asks: I know Jimmy Rollins has the famous 20-20-20-20 season. You'd think Volpe could one day do that?

Rollins had 38 doubles, 20 triples, 30 homers, and 41 steals in his MVP year in 2007. He wasn’t the only 20-20-20-20 player that season! Old pal Curtis Granderson had 38 doubles, 23 triples, 23 homers, and 26 steals with the Tigers. Those were only the third and fourth 20-20-20-20 seasons in history. Willie Mays (26-20-35-38) did it in 1957 and Frank Schulte (30-21-21-23) did it in 1911. No one else has done it.

As for Anthony Volpe, no, I don’t see him going 20-20-20-20 only because 20 triples is an absurd number of triples. No player has had more than 16 triples since Granderson and Rollins went 20-20-20-20 in 2007, and the last Yankee with 20 triples was Snuffy Stirnweiss in 1945. Hell, no Yankee has had even 14 triples since Stirnweiss. The most triples by a Yankee since 1945 is Willie Randolph’s 13 in 1979.

Yankee Stadium is a terrible triples park, remember. Volpe went 20-20-20 last year (23 doubles, 21 homers, 24 steals) and I can see him doing that multiple times, but 20 triples just isn’t gonna happen. Maybe he can go 20-10-20-20 at some point? That’s a more realistic goal, 10 triples rather than 20. Corbin Carroll and Bobby Witt Jr. both went 20-10-20-20 last year, but it’s only been done 39 times in history.

Bert asks: Is it just me or do the Yankees seem platoon-averse? It feels like they'll just let their lower-tier regulars struggle while I see other teams have dedicated lefty mashers on the bench. 

I don't think the Yankees are against platoons. They just don’t have the personnel to platoon. They have a catcher platoon going, otherwise the bench is Oswaldo Cabrera, Trent Grisham, and Jahmai Jones. Grisham has had a reserve split throughout his career, so maybe you can platoon him with Alex Verdugo, but more Grisham isn’t very appealing. If the Yankees thought Jones could bring more to the table, he’d play more. Cabrera can’t seem to decide which side of the plate to hit against lefties.

This is a personnel issue more than the Yankees not being open to platoons. Also, because they now have more lefties in the lineup, the Yankees have had the platoon advantage way more often this season than the last few years. The numbers:

• 2021: 1,740 PA by LHB and 45.0% PA with the platoon advantage

• 2022: 1,758 and 44.3% 

• 2023: 1,650 and 41.6%

• 2024: 1,306 and 50.1% entering Thursday

The MLB average is 54.1% plate appearances with the platoon advantage, so the Yankees are still below that, but they’re in way better shape than the last few years. And they’re 81% of the way to last year’s plate appearance total by lefties in 47% of the games. The Yankees don’t have any platoons other than catcher but they have had the platoon advantage way more often than the last few years.

I think that, ideally, the Yankees would bring in a new third baseman, preferably a lefty they could platoon with DJ LeMahieu (LeMahieu’s gonna play whether we like it or not). Once Anthony Rizzo returns, does Ben Rice platoon with Giancarlo Stanton at DH? I keep waiting for Stanton to slow down against righties, but he keeps hitting them. The lack of platoons is the result of the personnel more than anything. If the Yankees had a better bench, they’d play match ups more often.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)