May 31st, 2024: Schmidt, Gil, LeMahieu, Rizzo, Volpe, Holmes, Mailbag

I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for this West Coast trip to be over. Not for baseball reasons. For sleep reasons. Once upon a time West Coast trips were light work. Stay up late, watch the Yankees, then wake up bright and early the next day feeling like a million bucks. These late night games wear me down a little more with each passing year. Three more games on the West Coast, then the Yankees will play 14 of their next 21 games in New York. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Schmidt to the IL. Even with Gerrit Cole out, the Yankees had been on a good run of pitcher health, and that was never going to last. Pitchers get hurt, it’s what they do, and Thursday the Yankees placed Clarke Schmidt on the injured list with a right lat strain. He will not throw for 4-6 weeks. Add in the rehab/build up period and Schmidt’s looking at a two-month absence, possibly longer. Sigh.

“Coming out of his last game, he wasn’t able to recover. He wasn’t able to do his throwing that he would normally do in between starts this time through,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. “... Obviously, Clarke has been one of the guys that has been pitching so well. It stinks for him, but hopefully we’ll have him down and get him on the mend, and hopefully get him back at some point.”

Schmidt, 28, has been the Yankees’ second best starter this year, pitching to a 2.52 ERA (3.49 FIP) while averaging 5.5 innings per start. His strikeout rate increase (21.5 K% in 2023 to 27.1 K% in 2024) and hard-hit rate decrease (41.0% in 2023 to 34.4% in 2024) are among the largest in baseball. Schmidt’s in the middle of a breakout season and now has to hit pause. Also, the Yankees lose a reliable starter. Sucks.

Boone said Cody Poteet, who is currently on Triple-A Scranton’s injured list, will start Saturday in Schmidt’s spot. He had a blister but apparently is ready to go. He last started on May 19th, so it wasn’t too long a layoff. Poteet should be able to give the Yankees a full start (i.e. 90+ pitches) or something close to it Saturday. Clayton Beeter is on the Triple-A injured list and there’s no word on when he’ll return.

(Allow me to note that, two weeks ago, I made a mildly bold prediction that Poteet will make another start for the Yankees before Cole returns.) 

Will Warren last started Sunday, so he lines up perfectly to start in Schmidt’s place Saturday, but he’s had a brutal last few weeks: 31 runs in his last four starts and 17 innings! Warren has to get his season back on the rails before he becomes a call up option. The Yankees didn’t use Schmidt’s injured list stint to bring Yoendrys Gómez back, so he’s not a candidate to start Saturday. He’s only five days into his 15-day waiting period (plus he started Thursday night).

I know this much: Cole isn’t coming back ahead of schedule because Schmidt got hurt. Accelerating Cole’s recovery is asking for something bad to happen. The Yankees will dip into their pitching reserves to weather the storm, and when Cole is ready to come back, he’ll come back. This is why there was no sense in wondering who comes out of the rotation when Cole returns in several weeks. These things always take care of themselves.

Health and durability has been such a big part of the rotation’s success. The Yankees are the only team in baseball with five pitchers who have made at least 11 starts each, and they’re one of six teams that has used only six starters this year* (no team has used only five starters). It was the same five guys taking the ball every five days. That consistency and stability matter. Now someone else will step into the rotation.

* Schmidt, Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón, and Marcus Stroman have started 57 of 58 games. The other start was The Cody Poteet Game, which was made necessary by a rainout and a doubleheader, not because someone got hurt or performed poorly and had to be replaced.

Hopefully Schmidt recovers well and quickly, and is able to return as the same pitcher he was before the injury. May this just be a hiccup in his breakout season and not a derailment. For the Yankees, they now have to figure out a way to bridge the gap between today and Cole’s return. Poteet will get the first chance, but Gómez and Warren (and Beeter?) are looming. There’s opportunity abound.

(Schmidt’s long-term injury means JT Brubaker suddenly becomes more important. He is facing hitters as part of his Tommy John surgery rehab and is looking at an All-Star break-ish return.)

2. Weekday thoughts. So long, Anaheim. Doesn’t matter how bad the Angels are, I will never feel at ease about a game in that ballpark. Those postseason series in the early 2000s and the stupid Rally Monkey scarred me. Thank you for not letting the Angels win their first home series of 2024 this week, Yankees. Here now are a few thoughts on the Angels series.

Gil’s latest gem and the marvelous rotation

Before Wednesday’s game, Matt Blake told Meredith Marakovits the Yankees did not expect this level of consistency from Luis Gil (they showed the interview on the Amazon broadcast), and then he went out and had maybe the best start of his career. I feel like I’ve said that a lot lately? The best start of Gil’s career. It’ll be hard to top the 14-strikeout game, but Wednesday is a good challenger: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 HR.

“Am I fully 100% surprised? I’m not,” Gil told Bryan Hoch about his season after Wednesday’s gem. “The reason why is that it took a lot of dedication and a lot of work to get here. That’s something that I really wanted to do, to put myself in the best position possible coming in here. When you’re able to command pitches out there, really good things happen.”

Eleven starts into the year, Gil has a 1.99 ERA (2.97 FIP) with elite strikeout (31.7%) and hard-hit (29.0%) rates. He misses a ton of bats and he’s also really, really hard to square up. Seven times in 11 starts Gil has allowed two or fewer hits. Nine times he’s allowed three or fewer hits. Also, Gil is trimming his walk rate. It’s still 12.4% for the season, but it is trending down:

I don’t know if this is a young pitcher figuring things out or just a control-challenged pitcher finding a nice groove for a few starts, but I do know it rules. Gil is incorporating his slider a little more and the changeup remains a go-to weapon. Director of pitching Sam Briend told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) they really focused on the changeup during Gil’s Tommy John surgery rehab. They put that time to good use.

One of the biggest challenges facing the Yankees the rest of the season (maybe the biggest) is figuring out how to get Gil through 162 games so he can be effective in October. His 63.1 innings this year is the third highest total of his career, behind 108.2 innings in 2021 and 96 innings in 2019. The Yankees say they don’t have a set innings limit on Gil. They will have to monitor him for fatigue though. Getting this version of Gil to the postseason won’t be easy but the Yankees have to figure out how to do it.

“I don't think anyone is really surprised within the clubhouse and within the organization,” Anthony Volpe told Hoch about Gil’s performance. “I’m friendly with a couple of guys on other teams and they’re saying after games that it’s the most electric fastball they’ve ever faced. When you’ve got someone like that who can put you off-balance with two other pitches, it’s going to definitely be a good recipe.”

As for the rest of the rotation, Nestor Cortes has statistically been the Yankees’ worst starter, and he has a 3.30 ERA (3.38 FIP) while averaging 5.9 innings per start. And again, that’s their worst starter. The rotation has a 2.70 ERA (3.76 FIP) while averaging 5.7 innings per start, fourth most in baseball. Gerrit Cole won the Cy Young with a 2.63 ERA (3.16 FIP) last year. The entire five-man rotation is performing at something close to that level this season.

Yankees starters had gone at least five innings with no more than two runs allowed in 16 straight games before the streak came to end Thursday. That’s the longest such streak by any team since the mound was moved to 60-feet, 6-inches in 1893. This is really more of a modern record because back in the day starters went 7-9 innings no matter what. If you gave up four or five or six runs, so be it, but you were throwing your 7-9 innings. Still, an impressive streak, it is.

Also, the starter has gone at least four innings in all 58 games this season. The Yankees are the only team that they can say that, and this is only the fourth time in franchise history they’ve gotten 58 straight starts of at least four innings in a single season:

1. 63 games (June 30th to Sept. 8th, 2012)
2. 58 games (April 14th to July 2nd, 1904) (to start the season)
3. 58 games (May 29th to Aug. 2nd, 2016)
4. 58 games and counting (March 28th to present) (to start the season)

Think about that. We’re two months into the season and at not once did the starter have a bad day and get knocked out in the second or third inning. That can happen to the best rotations and the best pitchers. Sometimes it’s just not your day. Two months into the season though, the Yankees have yet to have one of their starters bomb out in the early innings. It really is incredible.

(Four times the starter has gone only four innings: this game, this game, this game, and this game.)

Clarke Schmidt’s injury stinks and will test the rotation depth. It was bound to happen at some point. Gil has been brilliant though, somehow an upgrade over Cole, and the rotation as a whole has been tremendous. The offense hasn’t had the best week but has been very good overall, but clearly, the rotation is driving the Yankees’ success in 2024. To date, the rotation has been A+, and let’s hope it continues without Schmidt.

“Yes,” Boone told Gary Phillips earlier this month when asked whether he believed the rotation could be this good without Cole. “I acknowledged the questions just based on guys coming off of injury, off a down performance, whatever it may be. But all the guys we’re talking about, I know they’re capable of what they’re doing so far. That said, it doesn’t always work out that way, but I’m not surprised by what any of those individuals are doing.”

LeMahieu returns

DJ LeMahieu is back and in some ways it felt like he never left. He stepped into the lineup for the first time this season Tuesday and gave the same LeMahieuian at-bats and reliable third base defense. LeMahieu is 2-for-9 with three walks and two strikeouts through three games and the first hit wasn’t really a hit. Anthony Rizzo (presumably intentionally) ran into a ground ball to prevent a double play (video). By rule, Rizzo is out and LeMahieu gets a hit. Heck of a way to get your first hit of the season, eh?

LeMahieu batted ninth in his first two games – he was in the “second” leadoff spot – and that works, right? Gleyber Torres is hitting again (.281/.354/.509 and 146 wRC+ in his last 16 games) and Volpe has to stay in the leadoff spot. Either the catcher or LeMahieu will hit ninth. Might as well go with LeMahieu there since he’s more likely to get on base in front of Volpe, Juan Soto, and Aaron Judge.

"I wouldn't change a whole lot with our offense right now,” LeMahieu told Hoch about hitting ninth. “I'm just looking forward to being part of the lineup. I'll lurk down there in the bottom of the order."

LeMahieu’s at-bats have been solid. He’s seeing pitches (4.33 per PA), he’s yet to swing and miss at a pitch in the zone, and five of his seven balls in play have been at 95+ mph exit velocity. We’ll see where this goes in the coming weeks, but through one series, LeMahieu looks good at the plate and in the field. Once the results come consistently, the lineup will be even more dangerous.

The Rizzo Problem

Two months into the season, it’s become clear the Yankees have a problem at first base. Rizzo is not hitting and his usually reliable defense has become a liability. It looks like Rizzo is playing first base in slow motion. Tuesday’s costly misplay (video) is one of too many to count. And the bat isn’t making up for it either. Twenty-two first basemen have at least 150 plate appearances. Rizzo’s ranks:

• AVG: .245 (12th)

• OBP: .309 (14th)

• SLG: .368 (17th)

• wRC+: 98 (16th)

Rizzo is not swinging and missing more than in the past, but he is chasing more (career high 34.4%), which equals few walks (career worst 6.0%) and a lot of weak contact on pitches out of the zone. His exit velocity, barrel rate, and all that are the worst of his career. Everything Rizzo hits is a grounder or a soft line drive that lands in front of an outfielder. Statcast sliders aren’t everything but yikes yikes yikes:

“We’re still in a lot of ways very early in the season and he’s on the cusp of a good week or 10 days of (his slash line) being a lot different,” Boone told Randy Miller earlier this week. “He’s got some home runs and run production. It’s not like he’s sitting there hitting .190 and not getting on at all. So he’s got to keep grinding. Get that good feeling going and hopefully we see that steadily climb.”

The potential causes for Rizzo’s decline are numerous. It could be the concussion the Yankees let him play through last season. It could be Rizzo’s bad back. It could be that he turns 35 in a few weeks. It could be all of the above plus more. Players this age suddenly declining is hardly unheard of. And it’s not often they improve either. Players in their mid-30s typically get worse, not better.

The Yankees could give LeMahieu more time at first – Rizzo is hitting .196/.262/.196 (41 wRC+) against lefties*, so at minimum a platoon is in order – though that just opens up a hole at third base, especially with Jon Berti injured. Oswaldo Cabrera is my guy, but he can’t be an everyday player. Cabrera did nice work keeping the Yankees afloat the first week or two of the season. Since then? Nope.

* Rizzo is hitting .263/.326/.429 (119 wRC+) against righties, which ain’t so bad.

So what can the Yankees do about first base? I guess the better way to phrase that is would the Yankees actually replace Rizzo? Or is this a “he’s our guy and we’re sticking with him no matter what because we believe he’ll turn it around” situation? The Yankees can be stubborn. They stuck with Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop because he was their guy even though it was plainly obvious he isn’t a shortstop.

Rizzo is beloved in the clubhouse – he and Judge are BFFs – and unless he completely craters, I think he’s here to stay the rest of the season. The Yankees are more likely to reduce his playing time (i.e. find a platoon partner) and drop him lower in the order than outright replace him, I think. Either way, we are weeks from action being taken. There’s no reason to think Rizzo is anywhere close to the end of his leash.

It’s probably too late to sign Brandon Belt and expect him to contribute meaningfully (all those players who sign late seem to struggle). Luis Arraez has already been traded (how great would it be to have him right now?). Maybe the Diamondbacks will trade rental Christian Walker if they continue spinning their wheels? Pete Alonso is probably out of the question for Mets-Yankees reasons, but Walker could be available.

(The Yankees would need to replace Rizzo with a lefty hitter, no? If he’s toast, we’re suddenly looking at a lineup in which the second best lefty is Alex Verdugo. Alonso and Walker are righty hitters.)

Ben Rice, my No. 11 prospect, has 12 home runs in 45 games in Double-A this year after annihilating the level last year. The Yankees should bump him up to Triple-A to expose him to better competition just in case they need him at first base later this summer. I know they like T.J. Rumfield, the current Triple-A first baseman, but Rumfield and his career .400 SLG in the minors probably isn’t the solution in 2024.

I don’t think Rice (or Rumfield) should be Plan B at first base for a team trying to win the World Series. Rizzo is not in danger of being replaced anytime soon anyway, and we have two months between now and the trade deadline to discuss alternatives. First base has emerged as a real problem though. Rizzo is one of the worst hitters at a position with a high offensive bar and his glovework has slipped.

“It’s part of being a player. It’s part of being a player that has a long career,” Boone told Miller. “There are adjustments to be made. There are peaks and valleys that you go throughout a season, throughout your career. You’re constantly working in the best of seasons, and seasons where you struggle to try and get it to click. I trust that it will with Rizz. He’s not far from being in the midst of a really good season. He’s had a couple of weeks stretch here where he hasn’t got a lot of results, but it’s certainly in there for him to do it.”

(I was surprised Rizzo didn’t pinch-hit for Cabrera with the bases loaded in the seventh inning Thursday. A soft-tossing righty (Adam Cimber) with a platoon split in a situation where he has to throw the ball over the plate is about as good a situation as you can ask for. Of course, that all applies to Oswaldo too, and he drew a bases loaded walk. Still, I was surprised Rizzo didn’t pinch-hit there.)

On Soto’s interference

By the letter of the law, Wednesday’s interference call (video) on Soto was correct. Rule 6.01 says a “runner who is adjudged to have hindered a fielder who is attempting to make a play on a batted ball is out whether it was intentional or not." The ball did not have to be caught because the infield fly rule was in effect, but the ball was still live and the runners could have advanced. In theory, Volpe could have trotted home from third if Zach Neto was unable to field the ball after colliding with Soto.

“A wonky play. By the letter of the law, it was probably the right call,” Boone told Hoch after the game. “I don’t know what Juan (is supposed to do). You can say he’d better get there, but once he commits to getting there and he’s trying to stay out of the way, if Neto catches it, he might catch it on the bag for a double play. It's like, where do you go? So obviously a tough way to start things when you load the bases there in the first inning and you’ve got a really good pitcher on the ropes.”

Neto misreading the popup and backing into Soto is irrelevant. And Soto would not have been called out had his foot been on the bag (and the umpires deemed the contact unintentional), but it wasn’t, so he was called out. It is 100% the correct call. A very similar play happened in a recent White Sox vs. Orioles game. Andrew Vaughn was retreating to second on an infield fly, Gunnar Henderson ran into him while fielding the popup, and Vaughn was called for interference.

The call was correct. The issue is the rule itself, or the lack of common sense. After the Vaughn play, MLB said umpires have discretion and interference did not have to be called, which is not the same thing as saying the call was incorrect. In both cases, Soto and Vaughn, the defender initiated the collision with the runner who was retreating to the bag and near the base. If it happened halfway between second and third, okay, but Soto had to go to a fixed point (the base). You can only do so much to avoid the fielder there.

Seems to me the sensible thing is calling the ball dead once the runner and fielder collide, and not calling interference. They shouldn’t do that on every infield fly rule – these collisions rarely happen and the runners should be given the ability to advance at their own risk – but in cases where the runner is near the base and the fielder runs into him, sure. I know “near the base” is subjective, but so is interference. I understand the need for the rule. Just feels like there needs to be more common sense applied. Whatever.

“The sequence matters,” Boone told Hoch. “There's some nuance and judgment that can go in there. This was obviously different in that there was contact, and Neto clearly hit him and affected the play. But it's probably something that can hopefully get revisited a little bit.”

Miscellany

Volpe’s hitting streak ended at 21 games Thursday, one short of Joe DiMaggio’s record for a 23-and-under Yankee. Volpe did extend his on-base streak to 26 games – Judge has a 26-gamer going too – the longest by a Yankee other than Judge since LeMahieu had a 37-gamer in 2021. The last 23-and-under Yankee with a longer on-base streak was Melky Cabrera in 2007. He had a 30-game on-base streak that year … Rough stretch for Clay Holmes. He had the meltdown against the Mariners last week, gave up the go-ahead double Tuesday, and walked the tightrope Wednesday. Tuesday’s double was only the second extra-base hit Holmes has allowed this year. Bad time for it. Holmes has thrown more sliders than sinkers in his last two outings and it does feel like he’s throwing too many sliders. Can’t go wrong with a 97 mph sinker, you know? Holmes will bounce back, he always does. Just a tough stretch for now … Goodness gracious, what an awful send by third base coach Luis Rojas on Tuesday. Austin Wells banged a double into the right-center field gap and Torres was thrown out at home trying to score from first (video). The relay man already had the ball as Torres made the turn around third!

The throw was up the line and catcher Logan O’Hoppe still had time to catch it, reset himself, and apply the tag. The Yankees have made seven outs at home in 2024, fifth most in baseball. It’s a slow team in general plus Rojas has had some really bad sends this first few weeks. Tuesday’s was the most egregious … Tommy Kahnle went 20 up, 20 down to begin 2024 (rehab stint included). He then hit the first batter he faced Thursday, so that’s the end of that streak. Kahnle still hasn’t allowed a hit though. He’s got a 7.2-inning no-hit streak going… And finally, lefties have a .433 OBP with nearly as many walks (six) as strikeouts (eight) against Caleb Ferguson this season. The Yankees aren’t gonna DFA him anytime soon nor should they, but maybe let’s not bring him in with the bases loaded anytime soon?

Injury updates and roster moves

Cole threw his third live BP Thursday and it sounds like everything went well. He threw 43 pitches in three innings. Cole could begin a rehab assignment next week, though the Yankees haven’t committed to anything yet. “He was pretty pleased with his outing and just how he felt. So assuming everything goes well, good chance at a rehab next,” Boone told Greg Joyce. Pitchers get a 30-day rehab window. Starting a rehab assignment next week would put Cole on track to return two weeks before the All-Star break at the latest (the Yankees could always activate him earlier) … Jasson Domínguez returned to the outfield this week. He played five innings in center field Wednesday, sat Thursday, and will presumably play the outfield again Friday. That’s a typical early Spring Training build up schedule. Domínguez’s 20-day rehab window expires Monday and he will almost certainly be optioned to the minors. Here are the results of Tuesday’s poll. I voted for “send him to the minors and keep him there” … And finally, Kevin Smith was indeed DFAed to clear a roster spot for LeMahieu. He cleared waivers and the Yankees said he elected free agency Tuesday, then on Wednesday they said nope, Smith accepted the outright assignment. I don’t know if the Yankees made a mistake with the initial announcement or if Smith changed his mind (can players do that?), but he’s back with Triple-A Scranton as a non-40-man roster player. The Yankees have a full 40-man and will need to open a spot when Domínguez comes off the 60-day injured list Monday. Schmidt’s probably a 60-day injured list candidate now, ditto Jon Berti with his high grade calf strain. If not, Clayton Andrews or Jake Cousins might be getting some bad news soon.

Up next

The West Coast trip wraps up with three games in San Francisco. Fun fact: The last series the Yankees played in San Francisco was also the last series of the RAB era. The last game recap I wrote was an 11-5 win over the Giants to complete a three-game sweep. Here are the weekend’s pitching matchups (10pm start on a Saturday? the baseball gods owe us a Judge four-homer game):

• Friday at Giants: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Jordan Hicks (10pm ET on YES)

• Saturday at Giants: RHP Cody Poteet vs. RHP Logan Webb (10pm ET on YES, MLBN)

• Sunday at Giants: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Blake Snell (4pm ET on YES)

• Monday: off-day

The Yankees caught a bit of a break this weekend because LaMonte Wade Jr. landed on the injured list the other day. He tried to play through a nagging hamstring issue and wound up making it worse. He has a Grade 2 strain and will miss at least a month. Rough. Wade is hitting .333/.470/.426 (169 wRC+) with nearly as many walks (19.9%) as strikeouts (21.1%). San Francisco’s lineup is pretty thin without him.

The Yankees did not catch a break with Hicks and Webb though. Those two have 2.55 ERA (3.07 FIP) with a 55.4% ground ball rate. They are two of the best home run preventers in the sport (combined 0.41 HR/9). Between them and the ballpark, the Yankees may have to find ways to score runs without the long ball this weekend (or they could just take Webb deep anyway). Credit to Hicks and the Giants for making the starter thing work. A lot of people were skeptical, but he’s been great.

Snell is going on paternity leave any day now and I don’t know what San Francisco’s backup plan is if he can’t start Sunday. The Giants have used bullpen games regularly this season, so they’ll probably do that. Snell actually went on paternity leave late last week but the baby didn’t arrive on the due date. The Giants will have to petition MLB for a second paternity leave (I’m sure the league will grant it).

Almost all these guys who signed late are having poor seasons and Snell is no exception: 10.42 ERA (4.55 FIP) in 19 innings around a groin issue. He looked pretty sharp and pretty Snell-like early in his last start before the wheels came off in the middle innings. Between the Wade-less offense and Hicks and Webb starting and Oracle Park, it could be a low-scoring series this weekend.

3. 2024 draft prospect: Alabama HS SS Carter Johnson. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.

Johnson, 18, is a physical (6-foot-2 and 180 lbs.) left-handed hitting high school shortstop from Alabama, so the Gunnar Henderson comps are running rampant. That’s not fair to Johnson – Henderson’s one of the what, 10 best players in the sport? – who looks the part in the uniform but has performed unevenly against top competition in showcase events. Here’s where the latest draft rankings have him: 

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 35

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 34

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 28

• MLB Pipeline: No. 40

For what it’s worth, Johnson has been impressive the last few weeks and is now viewed as a strong candidate to be taken late in the first round. It is not a good draft class and anyone who shows out in June has a chance to shoot up draft boards and earn themselves a lot of money. Here’s video and here’s a piece of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d):

(Johnson) has developed a reputation as one of the best pure hitters in the prep class. Johnson doesn’t have any loud tools that jump off the page, but he has a steady, reliable game that’s driven by a relaxed and fluid lefthanded swing that could develop into plus pure hitting ability. Johnson’s swing is short and he maneuvers the barrel well to all quadrants of the zone and made contact within the zone at an 87% clip in 2023. He’s more of a line drive hitter presently who can use all fields and occasionally pull the ball down the line to the pull side, but he does have room to add more power and fill out his still-lean frame. Defensively, Johnson has reliable hands, fine actions and average arm strength that should give him a chance to stick at shortstop. Some scouts believe he will be a better fit for second base in the long run. Johnson will turn in average run times, but he is a fringy or below-average straight line runner

This profile, the sweet-swinging high school shortstop with a plus hit tool, has always been popular. Teams have hit home runs with a few of them in recent years so now they’re even more of a priority target. This is what Henderson and Anthony Volpe were in their draft years. Ditto Jackson Merrill, Mariners standouts Colt Emerson and Cole Young, Mets top prospect Jett Williams, Tigers stud Kevin McGonigle, and others.

Get the innate hitting ability, then work to improve the rest. The Yankees hit the jackpot with Volpe and went back to the well with George Lombard Jr. last year. Lombard fits the profile too. The Yankees have shown a preference for this profile in recent years, so in that sense, Johnson fits. The rest of the league likes this profile too, so whether Johnson gets the Yankees at No. 26 is another matter.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Several asked: What about a six-man rotation when Gerrit Cole returns?

I think the half-dozen of you who sent in a six-man rotation question jinxed it and got Clarke Schmidt hurt. The thing is, Schmidt’s injury is even more reason to use a six-man rotation later this season. A six-man rotation is more doable and more sensible now than in the past. First and foremost, the Yankees have four good starters other than Cole and Schmidt, and that’s pretty important. A six-man rotation only works if you have six legitimate MLB starters. Now consider:

• The Yankees won’t want to overload Cole so soon after his elbow injury.

• The Yankees also won’t want to overload Schmidt so soon after his lat injury.

• Nestor Cortes is among the league leaders in innings after having rotator cuff issues last year.

• Carlos Rodón has a long arm injury history, including forearm problems last season.

• This is Luis Gil’s first full year back from Tommy John surgery.

There is a reason to lighten the load on everyone other than Marcus Stroman, who had hip and rib trouble last season that were one-off injuries and not something chronic. The six-man rotation doesn’t have to be permanent either. The Yankees could do it for a few weeks when Cole and Schmidt first return just to ease them back into things, then shift back to a five-man rotation come crunch time as we get close to October.

Two potential issues with a six-man rotation. One, it means carrying seven relievers rather than eight, so the bullpen is shorthanded. This is workable though. I mean, how often do Victor González and Michael Tonkin actually pitch anyway? The Yankees could also aggressively shuttle relievers in and out to ensure there’s always a fresh arm out there. Seven relievers is a headache rather than a dealbreaker, I think.

And two, the Yankees do have a lot of off-days remaining this year. They’ve already played two of their three longest uninterrupted stretches (17 games in 17 days and 13 games in 13 days, they have another 13 in 13 coming in June). Starting Monday, the Yankees have 17 weeks remaining in the regular season and 15 of them include an off-day, and one of the two that doesn’t is the week after next (the other is the second week of September), before Cole and Schmidt return.

By time Cole and Schmidt return, the Yankees will have an off-day just about every single week the rest of the season. There’s a lot of rest already built into the schedule, lessening the need for a six-man rotation. And if the Yankees go with a six-man rotation anyway, guys are going to be making a lot of starts with 2-3 extra days of rest, not just one. There is such a thing as too much rest. At some point it becomes excessive. 

Aaron Boone gets asked about the rotation once Cole returns just about every single day and his answer is always some form of “we’ll deal with it when the time comes.” That includes when he’s asked about using a six-man rotation. A full-time six-man rotation might be overkill with all those days off. Maybe it would be best to insert a sixth starter now and then rather than do it full-time? I dunno.

Cole is still several weeks away from rejoining the Yankees and that is an eternity in pitcher time. Schmidt already got hurt. Someone else could get hurt next week. It is what it is. Hopefully Cody Poteet pitches like he did in Cleveland and we’ll still have to wonder who comes out of the rotation when Cole returns. I don’t think a six-man rotation would be crazy once Cole and Schmidt are healthy. Fingers crossed the Yankees have the option in a few weeks.

Sam asks: Has a team ever had 3 starters in an all star game? Could Yanks have some mix of Gil, Schmidt and Rodon or Stro?

I don’t know how many times one team has sent three starting pitchers to the All-Star Game throughout history, but it has happened. The 2021 Brewers were the last team to do it (Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff). You can never be 100% certain with these things, though I’d say Luis Gil is as close to an All-Star Game lock as it gets. It’s not often a 1.99 ERA gets stuck at home.

Clarke Schmidt is top 10 in the American League in ERA (2.52) and strikeout rate (27.1%), though his injury takes him out of the All-Star Game running. Too bad. Carlos Rodón (3.09 ERA) and Marcus Stroman (2.76 ERA) are sporting shiny ERAs. The players vote for All-Star Game pitchers, and although players look at advanced stats more than ever these days, history suggests the guys with best ERA will be at the All-Star Game. The Yankees are in good shape then.

Keep in mind there are so many injury and workload replacements each year. There were 12 starting pitchers on the AL roster and 11 on the NL roster last year, and each league had three replacements. If Rodón or Schmidt or Stroman isn’t on the initial roster, they could be added later. It’s not often one team sends three starters to the All-Star Game, but this year’s Yankees have about as good a chance to do it as any team in recent memory, even with Schmidt hurt. The rotation top to bottom has been incredible.

Paul asks: I've seen rumors about the Yankees looking for 1B help at the deadline, so let's get nuts: what about Pete Alonso? What would it take? Is it possible? How many dingers could he hit?

I wrote my answer to this question Wednesday morning, then, sure enough, Alonso took a pitch to the hand that afternoon. He left the game and I was worried he had a fracture and would miss several weeks, which could have taken him off the trade market. Fortunately, Alonso has no fracture and is day-to-day (he pinch-hit Thursday). Phew. I didn’t want to have to put this in the Content Graveyard.

Anyway, the Mets are trending toward selling – they are 23-33 overall and 11-25 in their last 36 games – and Alonso will be a free agent after the season. Both owner Steve Cohen and POBO David Stearns have said they expect Alonso to test free agency, and Alonso is a Scott Boras client, so yeah that makes sense. Are they willing to trade him at the deadline though? That remains to be seen.

Alonso, 29, has become a low average brute force masher the last two years – he hit .261/.349/.535 (137 wRC+) from 2019-22 and is at .221/.315/.490 (121 wRC+) since – which is not an unusual trajectory for his skill set. It’s premium power with elite top end exit velocities, sneaky good contact skills (22.1 K% and 9.9% swinging strikes the last two years), and shaky defense. Not awful, but shaky.

There is also something to be said for Alonso having already proven that he can thrive in New York – the Mets aren’t the Yankees, but the Mets are still a more demanding experience than most teams – and he was basically the only Mets player who performed down the stretch in 2022. The Mets blew a 10.5-game lead and had to settle for a Wild Card spot that year. Alonso hit .273/.372/.555 (160 wRC+) in September while the rest of the team wilted around him.

If the Yankees do move on from Anthony Rizzo – an enormous if, but this is all hypothetical anyway – they would ideally replace him with a lefty hitter. Alonso’s another righty. That said, you’re kinda at the mercy of what’s available on the trade market. What lefty hitting first basemen will be available, realistically? I could get down with this in the second half:

1. SS Anthony Volpe
2. RF Juan Soto
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. 1B Pete Alonso
5-9. Everyone else

There are two questions that must be answered: Are the Mets willing to trade Alonso, and are they willing to trade him to the Yankees? I don’t think the front offices would hesitate to make a deal with each other. The second question has to be answered at the ownership level. Does Cohen have the stomach to trade his most beloved and popular player to the Yankees? An already upset fan base would be none too thrilled.

Also, Alonso’s a rental with a limited skill set, and those guys don’t fetch the biggest return at the deadline regardless of name value. Here are a few recent examples:

• Josh Bell (Guardians to Marlins): Traded for a team top 20 prospect (SS Kahlil Watson) and a salary offset (IF Jean Segura). (Bell had a player option.)

• Jeimer Candelario (Nationals to Cubs): Traded for two team top 20 prospects (LHP DJ Herz and SS Kevin Made).

• Trey Mancini (Orioles to Astros): Traded for two team top 20 prospects (RHP Seth Johnson and RHP Chayce McDermott). (As part of a larger three-team trade.)

• Anthony Rizzo (Cubs to Yankees): Traded for a team top 10 prospect (OF Kevin Alcántara) and a team top 20 prospect (RHP Alex Vizcaino).

• Kyle Schwarber (Nationals to Red Sox): Traded for a team top 20 prospect (RHP Aldo Ramirez).

• Jorge Soler (Royals to Braves): Traded for a team top 20 prospect (RHP Kasey Kalich).

I use Baseball America’s rankings for these things because they’re the best public rankings available (and also because they’re easily searchable), and it was kinda shocking to go through and see a prospect in the 20-something range involved in all these trades. There was a salary dump component to the Bell, Schwarber, and Soler trades that complicate things, but yeah, the trade packages are similar.

Rizzo circa 2021 is by far the most well-rounded of those players, and also the Yankees had pony up better prospects to get him because they needed the Cubs to pay his salary to avoid going over the $210M  luxury tax threshold. The Mets leveraged Cohen’s wealth at last year’s deadline and ate a TON of money to get better prospects in return. They did it with Max Scherzer, David Robertson, Justin Verlander, etc.

Hal Steinbrenner is already complaining about payroll. Alonso is making $20.5M this season and I could absolutely see Hal wanting the Mets to pay that down to avoid the salary and associated 110% luxury tax bill. In that case the Yankees are giving up more in return. Even then, are the Mets taking, say, a top 10 and a top 20 prospect for Alonso? What’s the argument for giving up more for Alonso now than you gave up for Rizzo three years ago? (Market forces could jack up the price, of course.)

I think it’s a distinct possibility the Mets trade Alonso at the deadline and my guess is there will be enough interest around the league that they’ll be able to send him to the Not Yankees without taking less in return. The Astros, Mariners, and Rangers jump to mind as potential suitors, and we shouldn’t rule out teams like the Red Sox and Royals if they hang around the race. Alonso’s a good idea. Just very unlikely.

Gary asks: Hey Mike, Bay Area based Yankee fan here. Really looking forward to them visiting the Giants this weekend. I was surprised to read that no right handed batter has ever hit a homer out into McCovey Cove. I’d say Judge and Stanton have a pretty good chance of changing that right? How many of their oppo-dingers this season would’ve been splash hits at Oracle?

Oracle Park opened in 2000 and there have been 103 Splash Hits into McCovey Cove. Barry Bonds hit 35 of those. So, in 24 years and change, non-Bonds hitters averaged 2.8 Splash Hits per year. It’s hard for lefties to hit it into McCovey Cove. A righty doing it seems impossible. It’s not just the ballpark itself that makes Splash Hits difficult either. It gets chilly in the evenings and the breeze comes in off the water.

The longest opposite field homer by a righty at Oracle Park was a 398-footer by Cameron Rupp that didn’t come anywhere close to leaving the stadium (video). Giancarlo Stanton’s longest opposite field homer at Oracle Park is a 374-footer that barely cleared the wall (video). Here is every one of Aaron Judge’s career opposite field homers overlaid on Oracle Park:

The two farthest home runs, those two dots hanging out by their lonesome? Those are Judge’s Field of Dreams Game homers (video and video). There was no Statcast in Iowa so we don’t know how far those really traveled, so those locations are approximate. Methinks those dot locations are exaggerated a tad.

Officially, Judge’s longest opposite field homer is a 414-footer in Milwaukee two years ago (video). Maybe that one would’ve been a Splash Hit? Then again, that was in American Family Field with the roof closed. That is one of the most home run friendly environments in baseball. If any righty can hit a Splash Hit in San Francisco, it’s Judge (or Stanton). It certainly seems like a very tall order though.

Nico asks: Last year the Yankees had an off-day on Labor Day, and now they have an off-day on Memorial Day. There are only 11 games today, meaning 8 teams are off. What's up with that? Can the schedule makers really not accommodate games on major holidays when everyone is off work? I'd think the owners would force them to do so, since ticket sales would be higher. In my mind, day games and federal holidays go together like apple pie & ice cream

I don’t get it either. The Yankees were off on Memorial Day this year, off on Labor Day last year, and off on Memorial Day and the Fourth of July in 2022. “Play baseball on summer holidays many people associate with baseball” doesn’t seem very difficult, and yet. MLB’s schedule has been computer generated since 2004 and since then the schedule has lacked feel. The Dodgers played the Mets at Citi Field earlier this week, now they’re back home, and then next weekend they’ll be back in New York to play the Yankees. What sense does that make? Off-days on summer holidays don’t make sense. Play games when everyone’s off from work and school. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)