May 21st, 2024: Stanton, Offense, Gil, Rodón, Holmes, Berti, Prospects

The Yankees had their first seven-game winning streak since Sept. 2022 snapped in rather brutal fashion Monday, though they are 12-2-1 in their 15 series this season. James Smyth says it’s the first time they’ve won 12 of their first 15 series since 2002 – they went 11-2-2 in their first 15 series in 2022 – and the sixth time they’ve done it overall (also 1928, 1932, 1939, and 1949). I’m not sure we could have asked for a better start to the season with or without Gerrit Cole. Let’s get to today’s post now.

1. Weekend thoughts. A completely unimportant thing that bugged me: White Sox manager Pedro Grifol had Mike Clevinger intentionally walk Aaron Judge in the fifth inning Friday, then he brought in lefty Tanner Banks to face Alex Verdugo. You’re supposed to make the reliever issue the intentional walk so it counts as a batter toward the three-batter minimum, and you can pull him sooner if things go sideways. This didn’t affect the outcome of the game in any way, but still, is anyone with the White Sox paying attention? This is Manager 101 and Grifol earned himself an F. Anyway, here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Stanton’s not so quiet heater

For years the Yankees relied heavily on Giancarlo Stanton to provide offense and serve as Robin to Aaron Judge’s Batman. Now Stanton is on one of his put-the-team-on-his back hot streaks and it’s almost like a bonus. The Yankees are good enough to win without Giancarlo contributing, something that wasn’t true in the second half of 2022 and the entirety of 2023, but is true in 2024. Stanton’s been great lately.

"He looks like Big G," Judge told David Alder over the weekend. "I know he's been battling injuries the past couple of seasons, but I think he's finally feeling healthy and feeling like himself."

Stanton has multiple hits in five of his last eight games and he is 12-for-32 (.375) with two doubles and three homers in those eight games. He had a hit taken away Saturday when Andrew Benintendi made a diving catch (video), and one of those doubles was this close to being a home run:

Friday’s home run was, weirdly, Stanton’s first off a lefty this season. Almost all his production has come against righties: 152 wRC+ vs. RHP and 81 wRC+ vs. LHP going into Monday’s game. Is this a good sign because Stanton will eventually come around against lefties? Or a red flag because he’s unlikely to continue hitting righties this well? Can it be both? I think so. May his success against righties continue.

Giancarlo’s hitting .252/.300/.509 (130 wRC+) – the league average DH is hitting .243/.318/.409 (108 wRC+) – and the changes he made to his body and his swing are tangible reasons to believe in his improved performance. Maybe not a 130 wRC+ all year, that’s pretty lofty, but somewhere comfortably north of the .191/.275/.420 (89 wRC+) line he put up last year. I’d sign up for a 115 wRC+. Wouldn’t you?

As good as Stanton has been, there are warning signs. His 31.8% strikeout rate is a career high in a full season, his 6.5% walk rate is a career low, and his 31.7% chase rate is his highest since 2012. Also, his 77.3% in-zone contact rate is well south of his 80.0% career average. When a guy in his mid-30s starts whiffing and chasing more, and walking less, it can be a sign he’s starting his bat early to catch up to velocity.

On that note, Stanton has not yet hit a home run on a pitch over 93.7 mph, and only two of his 11 home runs have come on pitches over 91.9 mph. All his damage has come against average (or what qualifies as average these days) and below velocity. Stanton mashing lower velocity is fine! That’s a path to a productive season. It might be an issue come October, but let’s get there before we worry about it.

For now, Giancarlo is on one of his hot streaks, and he is helping the Yankees pile up wins now so life is easier later. He’s healthy and he’s performing, two things that have not been true simultaneously since April 2022. This is the most productive Stanton’s been in a good long while. It’s the kinda thing the Yankees don’t need to be successful, but it can elevate them and help build separation in a tight AL East race.

"Last year is the past," Stanton told Adler. "You just live for now and try to help us win every night."

Return of the SLG

On April 23rd, I wrote the Yankees needed to collectively rediscover their power stroke. At the time they’d hit 22 home runs through 23 games, and they’d just completed a four-game stretch in which Juan Soto had a homer and a double, and the rest of the Yankees had zero extra-base hits. The Yankees bottomed out at a .363 SLG that day. The 26 games since: .487 SLG. Since Game 23, the line’s going up:

The things that needed to happen for the Yankees to improve their slugging have happened. Judge turned his season around and Stanton got hot, and so did Jose Trevino. Trevino’s been so good! He has five home runs and four strikeouts since April 13th (and he got robbed of a homer Sunday). Even Gleyber Torres is 9-for-31 (.290) with three doubles and a homer in his last eight games. Good signs abound.

Singles and doubles and sac flies and all that are fun. To reach its full potential, the offense had to start slugging again, and the Yankees have done that the last four weeks. Majestic blasts, short porch cheapies, you name it and the Yankees are doing it. They hit 22 home runs in their first 23 games and have hit 46 home runs in the 26 games since. The SLG has arrived. This is the way.

Gil the heat

It’s not quite Don Larsen throwing out the first pitch before David Cone’s perfect game, but Luis Gil broke Orlando Hernandez’s franchise rookie strikeout record Saturday, the same day El Duque threw out the first pitch. Baseball has rarely been more of a flat circle. Hernandez struck out 13 Rangers on Aug. 13th, 1998. Gil struck out 14 White Sox on Saturday. His final line: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 14 K (video).

“I was very happy to meet him today and establish a connection,” Gil told Bryan Hoch about meeting El Duque. “... I thank God for giving me this opportunity to be here. During the offseason, I did a lot of work to get myself into a good position coming into camp. I really just wanted to do the best I could for this team.”

Saturday was the 16th 14-strikeout game in franchise history, postseason included. Gerrit Cole (duh) had the last two. The last Yankee other than Cole to strike out 14 batters was Masahiro Tanaka. He fanned 15 Blue Jays on Sept. 29th, 2017 (video). Gil is in the rotation because Cole’s elbow started barking in Spring Training and, uh, the Yankees upgraded?

• Cole in 2023: 2.63 ERA (3.15 FIP) and 3.48 xERA

• Gil in 2024: 2.39 ERA (3.12 FIP) and 3.15 xERA

The White Sox missed with 22 of their 47 swings against Gil, an incredible 47% whiff rate, and he had at least a 40% whiff rate with all three pitches (fastball, changeup, slider). He missed bats with everything. I thought there was some questionable pitch selection in the first inning – so many changeups! – but Gil limited the ChiSox to one run, then overwhelmed an admittedly bad lineup the rest of the game.

Gil has allowed two runs total in his last four starts and he’s gone at least six innings all four times. Calling him a season-saver is a bit much – the Yankees are really good! – but Cole’s injury reduced the Yankees’ margin of error in the postseason race, and Gil’s picked up the slack. His impact has been Cole-like, truly. Few things are as exciting as a talented young pitcher figuring things out, and Gil’s figuring it out.

“The most impressive thing for me has been after each start, he’s taking inventory of what he did well and what he didn’t do well,” Matt Blake told Pete Caldera. “He’s really been on a mission to keep improving and it’s been awesome to see.”

What it’s supposed to look like

It is not yet June and already this season is the first time the Yankees have used a) one lineup at least six times since 2018, b) two different lineups at least six times each since 2015, and c) four different lineups at least four times each since 2012. Again, it’s not even June! Here are the most used lineups heading into Monday’s game:

I don’t know what sparked the lineup consistency – what are the odds Judge told the higher-ups to chill out with the rest days and to let the players play during his powwow with the higher-ups after last season? – but it is refreshing. Pretty much the same lineup day after day, as the baseball gods intended. I’m sure there will be more rest days later in the season. Right now, the pedal is on the floor.

Look at that first lineup though. The Yankees have a first round pick at catcher, a first round pick at shortstop, and a supplemental first round pick in center field. The core up-the-middle players are high draft picks who came through the system. Even Torres came up through the system to a certain extent. He was in Single-A at the time of the trade. A big chunk of his development took place with the Yankees.

Oswaldo Cabrera signed as an international amateur free agent. He’s the starting-ish third baseman in part because Oswald Peraza, another homegrown international free agent, got hurt in Spring Training. Is Alex Verdugo a Yankee if Jasson Domínguez, the most high-profile international signing in recent memory, doesn’t hurt his elbow? I think yes, the Yankees still make the trade, but we can’t forget El Marciano.

Then there’s the rotation. Clarke Schmidt was a first round pick. Luis Gil is technically not homegrown because the Yankees didn’t sign him originally, but he was in the Dominican Summer League when they got him for Jake Cave. The vast majority of his development took place with the Yankees. Gil is as close to being homegrown as it gets without actually being homegrown. Gil and Schmidt have been the team’s two best starters this season (by ERA, WAR, whatever).

This is what it’s supposed to look like. High draft picks and homegrown players all over the field and playing important roles. A first round pick hits leadoff and plays short, a supplemental first round pick hits third and plays center, so on and so forth. And because these are the Yankees, they can surround their homegrown players with a Gerrit Cole and a Juan Soto. It’s the best of both worlds.

Miscellany

Soto’s slump is over. After a 3-for-27 (.111) stretch dating back to the Astros series, Soto is 7-for-15 (.467) in his last four games, and he walloped two long homers Saturday (video). “Trying to find that feeling again where I was hitting the ball in the first month,” Soto told Greg Joyce about how he feels at the plate … Not a great second inning for Carlos Rodón on Sunday – Corey Julks and Zach Remillard crushed balls off him and uh – but he was again very good overall. Rodón has allowed no more than two runs and gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts. This is encouraging too:

“I feel pretty comfortable sitting in this stadium. I’m like, ‘This doesn’t feel overwhelming anymore.’ This feels like home, which is nice,” Rodón told Gary Phillips following Sunday’s game … Clay Holmes was bound to blow a save at some point and it happened Monday. It looked like all other Holmes blown saves: infield singles, an error, walks, etc. Also a bloop single that should’ve been caught. He’ll be fine. Bad games happen. The Yankees are now 102-3 when entering the ninth inning with a lead since the start of last season. The GIDP monster came for the offense earlier in the game and it cost them. The Yankees had opportunities to break the game open but didn't … Jon Berti has started nine of the last 14 games at third base, though Oswaldo Cabrera started one game at first base and one game at second base during that stretch. He wasn’t always out of the lineup when Berti started at third. Still, Berti is drawing more third base starts now, which is only temporary until DJ LeMahieu returns. Berti is 10-for-32 (.313) with three walks and five strikeouts since coming off the injured list … Peraza was activated off the injured list and optioned to Triple-A Scranton after Sunday’s game, the Yankees announced. I figured that would happen. LeMahieu will play rehab games this week and could rejoin the Yankees sometime next week. I expect Jahmai Jones to go once LeMahieu returns, assuming no one gets hurt between now and then … And finally, Tommy Kahnle had a 1-2-3 inning Sunday and retired all 15 batters he faced in his five rehab games (11 strikeouts). He’s expected to be activated Wednesday. You know what a rehab assignment that dominant means, right? Kahnle’s not gonna retire a batter in his first game back. The baseball gods are cruel like that. Michael Tonkin’s seven-out, 48-pitch effort Sunday felt very much like a “squeeze every last drop out of him before we DFA him” appearance, so I guess that’s the roster move for Kahnle. (Ian Hamilton landed on the COVID list Monday – hopefully that doesn’t make its way through the clubhouse – and Clayton Andrews was called up to replace him. Hamilton's absence might buy Tonkin a few more days. Recent waiver claim Colby White was DFAed to clear a 40-man spot for Andrews.)

Up next

The final three games of the four-game Mariners series, then a West Coast trip. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:

• Tuesday vs. Mariners: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. Bryan Woo (7pm ET on YES)

• Wednesday vs. Mariners: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Bryce Miller (7pm ET on Amazon)

• Thursday vs. Mariners: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Luis Castillo (12.30pm ET on YES, MLBN)

Thursday is the battle for Luis supremacy. The Yankees are seven days into this 13 games in 13 days stretch. After this week the Yankees have another 19 weeks remaining in the regular season, and 17 of those 19 weeks include an off-day. The Orioles, by comparison, have three weeks without an off-day in June alone. In terms of off-days, the Yankees are nearly through their toughest portion of the schedule. Doesn’t guarantee anything, but it can’t hurt.

2. Prospect thoughts. OF Spencer Jones is going through it. My No. 2 prospect is 9-for-67 (.134) with 30 strikeouts in his last 17 games. That has dragged his season batting line down to .221/.294/.336 (84 wRC+) and boosted his strikeout rate to 33.3%. Rough. Hopefully Jones rights the ship soon. Here now are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Ramirez’s rampage

You know, it’s been kind of a crummy year in the system. A lot of Top 30 Prospects are hurt and/or underperforming. There haven’t been many breakouts to compensate either. The best performer to date, at least on the position player side, is C Agustin Ramirez, and it’s not all that close. He’s hitting .278/.395/.603 (181 wRC+) with 18.4% strikeouts and 15.8% walks in 34 Double-A games.

Ramirez hit 18 home runs in 492 plate appearances at three levels last year (Low-A, High-A, Double-A). He already has 12 homers in 152 plate appearances this season. Ramirez is tied for fifth in the minors in home runs even though the Double-A season started a week later than the Triple-A season. Here is the minor league home run leaderboard among non-Triple-A players:

1. Deyvison De Los Santos, Diamondbacks: 14 HR in 162 PA
2. Agustin Ramirez, Yankees: 12 HR in 152 PA
3. Ariel Almonte, Reds: 11 HR in 141 PA
4. Chris Newell, Dodgers: 10 HR in 164 PA
5. Colby Thomas, Athletics: 10 HR in 165 PA

The power coming with such impressive plate discipline numbers – Ramirez also has a 10.5% swinging strike rate – is impressive. He’s hitting the ball out the park without sacrificing contact. There’s no word on Ramirez’s defense work yet (he’s only 4-for-39 throwing out runners), but defense is always going to be secondary with him. Double-A humbled Ramirez a bit late last year. This year, he’s returning the favor.

Ramirez was added to the 40-man roster this past offseason, perhaps unnecessarily, but I guess it’s better to be safe than sorry. He’s only 22 and last season was his first year out of rookie, so don’t hold your breath waiting for a promotion. He’ll spend a few more months in Double-A, possibly even the rest of the season. That would still leave him two option years to spend in Triple-A. For now, a very nice start to 2024 for Ramirez, one of the few prospects in the system really performing.

Avina performing in Yankees debut

The Yankees picked up OF Jace Avina in the Jake Bauers trade with the Brewers and he’s had a nice few weeks to begin his time in the organization. Avina is slashing .310/.412/.550 (172 wRC+) with four home runs in 26 games with High-A Hudson Valley. The 27.7% strikeout rate and 13.8% swinging strike rate are higher than you’d like, and that’s the book on Avina. Big power with questions about his contact ability.

MLB Pipeline ranks Avina, who Milwaukee gave an above slot $225,900 as their 14th round pick in 2021, as the No. 28 prospect in the system. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report (here’s a recent dinger):

Avina offers huge raw power from the right side of the plate and can crush balls to his pull side. He's overly aggressive and expands his strike zone while hunting home runs, which resulted in a 31.6 percent strikeout rate in his first two pro seasons. He did use the opposite field more often and made some progress with his plate discipline in 2023, but he'll have to continue to improve and make more adjustments to succeed against upper-level pitching … With solid speed and arm strength to match, Avina can steal a few bases and play anywhere in the outfield. He has more range than a typical corner outfielder and is more of an average defender in center field.

The opposite field thing? Not happening this year. Avina is pulling the ball 50.0% of the time, up from 39.7% last season. Pulling the ball isn’t bad, necessarily, but when you have as much power as Avina, you don’t have to sell out to hit the ball out of the park. That’s the next step in his development. Focusing on contact because he has enough juice to hit it out with less than his “A” swing.

(OF Brian Sanchez, the other prospect the Yankees got in the Bauers trade, is hitting .320/.393/.480 (131 wRC+) in eight Florida Complex League games. Also, Bauers is hitting .229/.321/.469 (125 wRC+) and the Brewers corner of the internet is talking about his exit velocity and possible swing changes and whether it’s sustainable. Been there, dudes.)

Smith cruising in Low-A

RHP Cade Smith, last year’s sixth round pick and one of my Not Top 30 Prospects, is doing what a pitcher who spent three years in the SEC is supposed to do in Low-A: 2.97 ERA (3.20 FIP) with 32.0% strikeouts and 12.5% walks in 30.1 innings. The walk rate is elevated, though the Low-A average with the automated strike zone is an 11.6% walk rate, so it’s not that elevated.

Eli Ben-Porat (subs. req’d) looked at a handful of pitchers with standout pitch data this year, and Smith is among them. The relevant part of the write-up:

We see a classic high-vert fastball with an absolutely filthy bullet slider that averages negative vertical movement. The slider has tremendous vertical separation off the fastball, elite gyro spin levels, and good velocity at 86 mph, and it’s not a surprise that it’s dominating Low-A with a 52% whiff rate and a 27% swinging strike rate. The fastball gets an elite 18 inches of induced vertical break from a low, 5.5-foot release height, allowing it to perform despite average velocity. He does a great job attacking low with the slider, but he may need to improve his command of the pitch as he moves up the ladder.

In English, that means Smith’s low-to-mid-90s four-seamer pops at the top of the zone, and his slider is a traditional slider with hard downward break rather than a sweeper. Here’s video. Smith is throwing 44% fastballs and 37% sliders, and only 9% changeups (the rest is curveballs). The changeup isn’t a big point of emphasis right now. Smith would be throwing it a heck of a lot more than 9% if it were.

His last start didn’t go well (4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 3 K) but Smith is doing what he needs to do in Low-A. I don't think the Yankees plan to keep him in Tampa much longer. An experienced college guy isn’t being challenged much (other than by the automated strike zone) at his current level. Give it a few weeks and I bet Smith’s with High-A Hudson Valley. So far though, things are going nicely for this mid-round arm.

Rule 5 Draft update

The Yankees lost three players in December’s Rule 5 Draft and I figure it’s time for a check-in now that we’re approaching the one-third mark of the season. One-third already, huh? That was fast. Here, listed alphabetically, are the three Rule 5 Draft players and their current status.

RHP Carson Coleman, Rangers: Coleman, my No. 27 prospect in 2023, had Tommy John surgery last spring and started this season on the injured list as he completed his rehab. Last week GM Chris Young told Evan Grant that Coleman had a setback and will not pitch this year, and he may need another surgery. I’m not sure if that means another Tommy John or the internal brace or what. Too bad.

Coleman, 26, is already on the 60-day injured list, so the Rangers will just keep him there and see how things go over the next few months. There’s no need to drop him from the roster right now. Coleman will need to spend 90 days on the active MLB roster next season to satisfy the Rule 5 Draft roster requirements. The roster rules don’t just go away because he’ll miss this season with an injury.

The Rangers are a World Series contender and may not want to/be able to keep Coleman on their 40-man roster all offseason, so he could be offered back at some point. José Soriano (Pirates) and Dedniel Núñez (Giants) were Rule 5 Draft picks in Dec. 2020. They then missed all of 2021 with injuries and were returned to their original teams in November. Coleman could be headed down that path following his setback.

RHP Matt Sauer, Royals: I swear I had this Rule 5 Draft update not only planned, but almost entirely written before the Royals DFAed Sauer on Monday. Good timing, I guess. Anyway, Sauer made Kansas City’s Opening Day roster and he was very bad while working extremely low leverage innings: 16.1 IP, 23 H, 14 R, 11 BB, 9 K, 3 HR. That’s a 7.71 ERA and 6.63 FIP. Sauer is dead last in leverage index. Can’t get any lower leverage than that.

The DFA means the Royals have seven days to trade or waive Sauer. If they trade him or if he gets claimed, the Rule 5 Draft roster rules follow him to the next team. They don’t go away. If he clears waivers – this is the most likely outcome – the Royals have to offer him back to the Yankees, and I assume they’d take him back. Sauer would then be back with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. Give it a week I bet he’s back in the organization.

The Royals are 30-19 with a +60 run differential and they play in a very winnable division. The bullpen is a bit of a weakness too. Kansas City is in the race and can’t afford to use a bullpen spot on a Rule 5 Draft kid who isn’t pitching well. Sauer entered the ninth inning with a seven-run lead Sunday, gave up three runs, and the Royals had to warm someone up. That might’ve been the final straw.

RHP Mitch Spence, Athletics: Spence was always the most likely of the three Rule 5 Draft guys to stick because he's the best pitcher of the three and because of the general badness of the A’s, and that is even more true now with Oakland losing a bunch of starters to injury. Old pal Luis Medina* got hurt in Spring Training and Paul Blackburn, Joe Boyle, and Alex Wood got hurt earlier this month. Some of them are expected to be out a while too.

* Medina was part of the Frankie Montas trade. Ken Waldichuk was also in that trade and he had Tommy John surgery last week. There were five pitchers in the deal (Medina, Montas, Waldichuk, JP Sears, Lou Trivino) and only Sears made it out in one piece. At least Medina only hurt his knee and not his arm.

Spence, 26, made his first start Friday because of those injuries and he more than held his own, allowing one run in 4.2 innings against Sauer’s Royals while on a pitch count (video). Prior to that he’d worked as a low leverage multi-inning guy. He went at least three innings in six of his 11 relief appearances and the A’s never once brought Spence into a game with a lead (not that they have led many games).

For the season Spence has a 3.90 ERA in 30 innings, which is a 99 ERA+ given his home ballpark, and the underlying numbers are quite good: 21.8% strikeouts, 6.7% walks, 54.2% grounders, 87.9 mph average exit velocity, and 2.9% barrel rate. That works out to a 3.16 FIP and 3.10 xERA. It’s all cutters and sliders and curveballs – Spence is diet Clarke Schmidt – and he’s got plenty of red:

The A’s haven’t committed to giving Spence another start yet – “Right now we will go day to day and see how Mitch feels after this (before deciding) if we are going to go forward with him (as a starter),” manager Mark Kotsay told Jackson Stone after Friday’s game – but clearly, he’s there to stay. Starter or reliever, Oakland will get a lot of mileage out of Spence this season. He’ll finish the season over 100 innings, I reckon.

In hindsight, the Yankees should have added Spence to the 40-man roster in the offseason and kept him as optionable depth (I didn’t do that in my Offseason Plan, so I can’t give the Yankees a hard time). For a team like the Yankees, Spence is an up/down depth guy. An alternative to Michael Tonkin more than a staple. For a team like the A’s, he’s a fixture. Spence ain’t coming back. Getting Rule 5ed was the best thing for him.

Injury updates

Quick OF Jasson Domínguez update: El Marciano is 5-for-13 (.385) with four walks and three strikeouts through four rehab games. So far, so good … SS George Lombard Jr. spent 16 days on the injured list with an unknown injury. He returned on May 11th. Last year’s first round pick is hitting .210/.385/.259 (105 wRC+) with 24.0% strikeouts and 20.2% walks in 104 plate appearances with Low-A Tampa (the walk rate is inflated by the automated strike zone). Hopefully Lombard settles into a groove now that he’s back and healthy and playing regularly … 2B Jorbit Vivas is back as well. He missed the start of the season with a broken orbital bone, returned April 23rd, played two games, then was put back on the injured list on April 26th. Greg Joyce says Vivas was “dealing with some aftereffects” of the broken orbital. They let the kid play with a broken eye socket and/or a concussion, didn’t they? Sigh. Vivas is playing what amount to rehab games with Low-A Tampa. He’ll surely head to Triple-A Scranton soon, maybe even this week … LHP Henry Lalane and RHP Carlos Lagrange, the two best pitching prospects on the Florida Complex League roster, have not yet pitched this season and were placed on the injured list last week. MLB Pipeline says Lalane is nursing a shoulder injury. Not sure what’s up with Lagrange. Either way, not good … And finally, OF Brando Mayea made his season debut Monday and went 0-for-1 with a walk in the FCL. He missed the first two weeks of the season with an unknown injury. Whatever it was, it was apparently minor.

Miscellany

IF Enmanuel Tejeda, my No. 21 prospect, hasn’t played since May 2nd because he hurt his shoulder diving for a ball, though it’s not too serious and he’s expected back soon-ish. Before the injury, Tejeda was hitting .330/.374/.402 (123 wRC+) with very strong contact rates as one of the youngest players in the Low-A Florida State League. One of my non-Yankees people brought Tejeda up unsolicited earlier this month. Word is the young man has a lot of fans in the industry … And finally, it’s been tough sledding for LHP Kyle Carr, last year’s third round pick. He has a 6.49 ERA (5.65 FIP) with more walks (17.6%) than strikeouts (16.8%) in 26.1 innings with High-A Hudson Valley. Supposedly his velocity is down and his delivery is all out of whack. Those two things can be related and hopefully they are, and this is as simple as getting his delivery right. Like I said earlier though, tough year in the system. Not many guys breaking out and a whole lotta guys getting hurt or spinning their wheels. One of those years, I guess.

3. 2024 draft prospect: Iowa RHP Brody Brecht. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.

Brecht, 21, reportedly turned down first round bonus offers out of high school in 2021 to go play football and baseball at Iowa. His football career never got off the ground – Brecht, a wide receiver, caught nine passes for 87 yards with the Hawkeyes – so he dropped the sport and committed to baseball. Last season, his first as a full-time baseball player, Brecht had a 3.74 ERA with 32.9% strikeouts and 18.4% walks in 77 innings.

This year Brecht has a 3.55 ERA in 71 innings with improved control, relatively speaking: 37.8% strikeouts in 15.1% walks. He’s also hit eight batters and uncorked nine wild pitches. In three college seasons Brecht has walked 133 batters in 170.2 innings. It’s … a lot. He’s also struck out 271 batters. That’s also a lot. Here’s where the latest draft rankings have him: 

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 34

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 19

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 16

• MLB Pipeline: No. 28

Brecht passes the eye test at 6-foot-4 and 235 lbs., and he struck out 12 in a 7.1-inning stint in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer. The Cape is the best of the best. Brecht has always struck out a ton – A TON – of batters and that was true against the best the NCAA had to offer last summer. Here’s video and here is MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:

When he's on, Brecht's fastball and slider are comparable to those of Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick in last year's Draft. He can sit at 96-99 mph and touch 101 with his heater, which has explosive running action and superior shape to Skenes' fastball, though Brecht doesn't locate his nearly as well. All that said, his best pitch is a slider that parks at 87-89 mph and peaks at 91 with plenty of horizontal and vertical action.

Iowa has had Brecht use more sliders than fastballs, which hasn't helped him improve his well below-average command of the latter pitch. He also doesn't have a lot of feel for his sparsely used splitter, which averages 93 mph with promising tumble at its best … (Brecht) may never have average command and comes with considerable reliever risk. But he's also an exceptional athlete and baseball has his full attention, so he could take off with pro instruction.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Brecht’s slider is a “hellacious, high-80s slider that has double plus potential.” The obvious comp for a wide reliever-turned-pitcher is Jeff Samardzija, who played 13 years in the big leagues and made himself over $100M. It took a while though. Samardzija was drafted in 2006 and his first full MLB season was 2011. His first full MLB season as a starter was 2012.

The Yankees have not drafted a pitcher in the first round since Clarke Schmidt in 2017. The pitchers they have drafted early in recent years stood out in ways that were more uncommon than big velocity and/or a wipeout slider. Brendan Beck (2021 second round) had elite command. Drew Thorpe (2022 second round) had the draft’s best changeup. Even Schmidt had some of the best spin rates in his draft class.

Brecht doesn’t fit that strategy (his command stinks, he doesn’t have much of a changeup, etc.) but guys who throw 101 mph and have wipeout sliders shouldn’t be dismissed. This isn’t your basic 95-and-a-slider college arm. With even average control, Brecht is a slam dunk top 10 pick. The lack of command and general refinement is both a drawback and the only reason the Yankees may have a shot at a pitcher with an arm like this.

The Yankees hired assistant pitching coach Desi Druschel away from Iowa in 2017 – Druschel introduced the Hawkeyes to modern analytical tools and revived the program – and he might (probably does?) still have some pals there, so perhaps Druschel is a way to gain additional insight into Brecht. What kind of teammate is he, what’s his work ethic like, etc. Behind the scenes stuff that can be difficult to evaluate.

Since Schmidt, it’s been hitters early and pitchers later, and the strategy has mostly served the Yankees well. I don’t know what kinda arm it’ll take for the Yankees to go with a pitcher in the first round again, but I reckon a guy who throws 101 mph with a razor blade slider is in the conversation. Brecht is raw and you hope he’ll get better now that he’s focused on baseball full-time, but it ain’t easy. He’s a project, for sure.

Luis Gil shows you can be very effective despite a high walk rate. It’s a difficult needle to thread, but it can be done. The Yankees typically do their best work improving velocity and sliders (and cutters), not so much improving command. Their developmental strengths don’t align with Brecht’s needs. Maybe that pushes them in another direction. Stuff-wise, Brecht is among the best in the draft, and he could be there at No. 26.

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