May 17th, 2024: Judge, Schmidt, Cole, Domínguez, Kahnle, LeMahieu, Peraza, Mailbag

I get a kick out of the “these Twins are different! they’re not a pushover anymore!” takes we see each year, only for the Yankees vs. Twins series to play out like a bug hitting a windshield. Minnesota had lost only three times in the 20 games prior to this week’s series, then they lost three times in three games to the Yankees. Postseason included, the Yankees are 120-44 against the Twins since the Ron Gardenhire era began in 2002. If you assume every game is 50/50 (not realistic but humor me), the odds of one team winning 120 times in 164 games are 1-in-1.265 billion. Just an absurd level of ownership. Let’s now get to today’s post. 

1. Weekday thoughts. Ryan Jeffers hit a leadoff home run Tuesday and the Twins didn’t score again in the series. They didn’t even get a runner to third base in the final 15 innings of the series. James Smyth says it’s the first time the Yankees allowed no more than one run in a three-game series since the 1999 ALDS against the Rangers. It’s the first time they’ve done it in the regular season since 1952. The Yankees will see the Twins again next month at Yankee Stadium (June 4-6). I can’t wait. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Judge’s triple double

So yeah, Aaron Judge is back. 100%, no doubt about it this time. The big man is 19-for-42 (.452) with nine doubles and five home runs in 12 games since the end of the very bad Baltimore series. Even his outs are crushed to the warning track now. Judge’s season line is up to .262/.392/.555 (169 wRC+), which is better than his career 165 wRC+. Welcome back, Aaron.

“We’re getting there. Not there yet,” Judge told Pat Donnelly after hitting three doubles and a home run Wednesday (video). “Hopefully we get there when we’re talking in November.”

Judge is the first player with four extra-base hits in a game this season and the first to do it since, well, Aaron Judge last September. He had three homers and a double against the Diamondbacks on Sept. 22nd. Judge had a chance at a fifth extra-base hit Wednesday, but alas, he walked in the ninth inning. Only 14 times has a player had five extra-base hits in a game (eight times since 2012, weirdly). Too bad Judge couldn’t make it 15.

Here is a complete list of players with multiple four extra-base hit games as a Yankee: Lou Gehrig (five), Joe DiMaggio (five), Babe Ruth (two), and Judge (two). That’s three-fourths of the franchise Mount Rushmore and Aaron Judge. Some list of names, that is. I feel silly for being worried about Judge a few weeks ago, even only slightly. He’s all the way back.

(Judge had five doubles and one homer in Minnesota, so we’re back on doubles > homers watch. He has 15 doubles and 11 home runs this season. This is, by far, the latest into a season he’s gone with more doubles than homers. Judge is on pace for 54 doubles and 40 homers. No one other than Rockies era Nolan Arenado has had 40 doubles and 40 homers since Josh Donaldson went 41/41 during his MVP year in 2015.)

The biggest difference between Judge now and Judge earlier this season is he’s not missing his pitch. Earlier this year Judge would get something hittable and either swing through it or foul it back or pop it up. Now he’s back to hitting missiles all over the field. Remember when his pop up rate was over 20%? It’s down to 9.4%, which is still elevated a bit but is much more in line with his career 4.9% pop up rate.

Also, Judge has made an adjustment to his stance. He’s more closed and standing more upright now. We can pinpoint the day it happened too: May 5th. That was the final game of the Tigers series. My GIF maker is giving me a hard time, but screen grabs get the point across:

More closed, more upright. Clear as day. Judge went 2-for-4 with a double on May 4th, though he changed his setup at the plate anyway, went deep on May 5th, and he’s been on a rampage since. Judge was out of sorts at the plate, made an adjustment, and is back to being AARON JUDGE. Sometimes it really is that simple. I’m glad it was in this case. Judge is back.

Judge’s resurgence has coincided with Juan Soto’s first slump of the season – Soto is 3-for-27 (.111) in the last seven games* – and this is why you go get superstars. When Judge slumped, Soto carried the Yankees. Now Soto is slumping and Judge is leading the way. The Yankees had a hard time scoring and winning games when Judge slumped in the past. This year they kept stacking wins in April as Judge tried to find his way, and they’re stacking wins now while Soto is quiet.

* Judge now has Soto beat: 169 wRC+ vs. 166 wRC+. That happened fast, eh?

Soto will be fine. I don’t see anything that worries me. Just the ups and downs of the season. At some point this summer Soto and Judge will get hot at the same time and the Yankees will bury teams for a week or two (or more!). It will be glorious. Until then, we’ll wait for Soto to snap out of it like we waited for Judge to snap out of it. It took a little longer than I expected, but Judge is fully operational now.

“Hitting is hard, even for great ones. Even the guys that have the best of years and win MVPs, there’s still peaks and valleys,” Aaron Boone told Donnelly. “I think it’s more just getting on time and recognizing pitches and getting your swing off. He’s done a great job of that here the last couple of weeks.”

Miscellany

Clarke Schmidt is leveling up. He can’t throw to the bases for some reason, but 6.2 shutout innings against the Rays last week and eight shutout innings against the Twins this week (video). Schmidt had never completed seven innings in the big leagues until Thursday, when he went eight. It was the best start of his MLB career. Nine starts into the season, Clarke’s got a 2.49 ERA (3.41 FIP) and is averaging 5.63 innings per start. Michael Baumann wrote about Schmidt’s ascension even before Thursday’s start, so check that out … Judge was the star but a great night for the offense all-around Wednesday. Pablo López is really, really good and the Yankees got to him for three runs on 10 hits in 6.1 innings, and they struck out only three times against a pitcher who has a 29.1% strikeout rate since the start of last season. López faced 28 batters, got to two strikes on 16 of them, and those 16 batters went 7-for-16 (.438). Opponents were hitting .175 against López in two-strike counts going into the game … Luke Weaver had his worst outing in a while Wednesday night and “worst outing in a while” means he allowed two singles and a walk in two scoreless innings. His last 10 appearances: 17.1 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 23 K. He has been nails. Who would have thought replacing Mike King would be so easy? (or as easy as the Yankees have made it look) … Marcus Stroman walked more batters (three) than he struck out (two) for the third time in his last four starts Wednesday, but six scoreless innings is six scoreless innings. It was the first time he completed six innings since his second start of the year. Stroman hasn’t been bad but it hasn’t been particularly easy for him this season … And finally, I want to personally thank Willi Castro for whatever it was he was doing in center field this week. The guy plays center field like a 2023 Yankees left fielder. How do you count on Castro, a natural infielder, as your Plan B in center when Byron Buxton is Plan A? Buxton is unbelievably talented but you have to expect him to get hurt at some point, and sure enough he’s on the injured list right now. Castro’s misplays directly led to several runs for the Yankees. Give him a World Series ring and a postseason share.

Up next

The road trip is over and the Yankees are back in the Bronx to begin a seven-game homestand. After this, it’s the first West Coast trip of the season, so adjust your sleep schedule accordingly. The White Sox are in town this weekend. They’re 14-30 overall but have won six of their last eight and 11 of their last 19, sneakily enough. Still, they’re very bad, so take care of business this weekend. The pitching matchups:

• Friday vs. White Sox: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Mike Clevinger (7pm ET)

• Saturday vs. White Sox: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Brad Keller (1pm ET)

• Sunday vs. White Sox: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Chris Flexen (1:30pm ET)

• Monday vs. Mariners: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Logan Gilbert (7pm ET)

That Mariners series is a four-game set. As for the White Sox series, it will be the game’s worst offense against the game’s best run prevention unit. Chicago is averaging 2.91 runs per game, worst in baseball by 0.69 runs, and even during this 6-2 stretch they’ve averaged only 3.13 runs per game. Old pal Andrew Benintendi is hitting .200/.229/.287 (45 wRC+) with -5 DRS. Talk about dodging a bullet.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are allowing only 3.31 runs per game. That’s the best in baseball and 0.16 runs ahead of the second place Dodgers. The Yankees have allowed no more three runs 28 times in 45 games and Gerrit Cole hasn’t thrown a single pitch yet. Just incredible work by the pitching staff and the defense (even the infielders). The Yankees are a run prevention powerhouse.

2. Injury updates. I was worried Victor González was banged up because he went an entire week without appearing in a game. He mopped up Thursday’s win and it was his first appearance since last Wednesday. Easier said than done, I know, but Aaron Boone and the Yankees need to get González more involved just to lighten the load on everyone else. Luke Weaver pitched four times between González appearances! Anyway, here are the latest injury updates now that we know González is healthy.

Cole making progress 

Four bullpen sessions in the books for Gerrit Cole. He threw 36 pitches with one “up” on Tuesday, meaning a simulated break between innings. Cole told Greg Joyce the plan is to build up to two “ups” in the bullpen before facing hitters in live batting practice. That could happen when he throws his next bullpen tomorrow. “Gerrit, everything went well (Tuesday). Gerrit, just onward and upward,” Boone told Brian Hall in Minnesota.

Figure Cole will need at least two live batting practice sessions and at least three rehab games before he rejoins the Yankees. That’s a solid four weeks of work right there. Cole is looking at a mid-to-late June return at the earliest. And that’s fine. If that’s what it takes to build him up, then that’s what it takes. The rotation has held up remarkably well and Cole is way too important to risk rushing him.

It’s a cop out, I know, but there’s no sense in thinking about who Cole will replace right now. His return is so far away and so much can change between now and then. In fact, I’ll make a mildly bold prediction: Cody Poteet will make another start for the Yankees before Cole. That’s baseball, man. One week you think the rotation is in great shape, the next week you’re scrambling. Glad Cole’s doing well. That’s all that matters.  

Domínguez begins rehab assignment

As expected, Jasson Domínguez’s rehab assignment got underway with Low-A Tampa Tuesday night. He faced Domingo Germán of all people in his first game and singled in his first at-bat (video). Domínguez played Tuesday, sat Wednesday, then played Thursday. That's an early Spring Training schedule right there. He is 3-for-7 with a walk and a strikeout in his two rehab games. His exit velocities in chronological order, if you care: 91.5 mph, 87.6 mph, 111.0 mph, 87.4 mph, 55.5 mph, 102.9 mph. (The 55.5 mph was a single, naturally.)

"It's nice to be back on the field and do what I love,” Domínguez said after his first rehab game (via Erik Boland). “It feels good. Everything going as planned. I feel good. I was seeing the ball very well. The progression has been really good. (Throwing) up to 150 feet. So we're close.”

Domínguez will DH at least two weeks before returning to the outfield. Position players get a 20-day rehab window and that means decision day is Monday, June 3rd. What’s when the Yankees will have to activate Domínguez and either put him on the MLB roster, or option him to the minors. Earlier this week, Boone strongly implied Domínguez will be sent to the minors when his rehab window expires.

“I mean, like, a month’s worth of playing and building up,” Boone told Joyce when asked how long Dominguez will need to get ready to rejoin the Yankees. “... He’s in the first days of Spring Training games. Let’s just get out of his way right now and get him right and get him playing and get him the regular reps, and then we’ll see where we are hopefully in 10 days, two weeks from now, when we’re now getting him into the outfield and start to really build him up. Then if we have a decision to make, we’ll obviously make that. But still, that’s a long ways off.”

I’m planning to do something more in-depth on the Domínguez situation when we get closer to activation day. For now, the important thing is Domínguez has started a rehab assignment and he’s nearing the end of his throwing program, and thus nearing a return to the outfield. El Marciano’s rehab seems to have gone very smoothly, knock on wood. Those martian ligaments heal nicely.

Kahnle nearing return

Twelve up, 12 down, nine strikeouts in four rehab games for Tommy Kahnle. He struck out the side Tuesday (video) and then did it again Thursday (video). Statcast says his fastball was up to 95.5 mph with Low-A Tampa. Kahnle will make another rehab appearance Sunday. It sounds like he'll rejoin the Yankees after that as long as it goes well. Tommy Tightpants is getting close.

“It could be some time in that Seattle series, but we’ll see how (Thursday) goes and then how (Sunday) goes, and see where we’re at if we want another (rehab game),” Boone told Joyce. (The Mariners series is a four-gamer from Monday to Thursday.)

Kahnle, 34, figures to jump right into the high leverage mix, though with any luck the Yankees will be able to ease him into action with a low leverage appearance or two first. A year ago Kahnle threw 40.2 innings with a 2.66 ERA (3.97 FIP) and strong strikeout (29.1%) and ground ball (49.0%) rates. The Yankees could definitely use that guy, particularly the bat-missing ability.

The bullpen has been great overall – 2.56 ERA (second in MLB) and +3.87 WPA (first in MLB) – though it does feel a bit unsettled, no? Ian Hamilton has been better the last two times out but has had a rough few weeks overall. Neither González nor Caleb Ferguson has instilled confidence yet. The middle innings can be adventurous. I’d say the bullpen depth chart looks like this at the moment:

1. RHP Clay Holmes
2. RHP Luke Weaver
(gap)
3. RHP Dennis Santana
4. RHP Ian Hamilton
5. RHP Nick Burdi
6. LHP Caleb Ferguson
(gap)
7. LHP Victor González
8. RHP Michael Tonkin

You could put that middle group in almost any order and I wouldn’t argue much. Tonkin is the last guy in the bullpen and it stands to reason Kahnle will replace him, though I don’t think it’s a given. Burdi and Hamilton both have options and there’s a case to be made for sending one of them down to a) work on things, and b) preserve depth by keeping the out-of-options Tonkin around.

I know, it’s Michael Tonkin, who cares if the Yankees DFA him? I’m not saying we should be upset if they do DFA him. I’m just saying DFAing him means sending a pitcher out the door at a time when Lou Trivino just had a setback and Scott Effross is slowly working his way back from two major surgeries. Tonkin’s first outing with the Yankees was that extra-innings mess in Milwaukee. Look at his workload since:

• April 28th: 1.1 IP with the Yankees up eight

• May 2nd: 2 IP with the Yankees down five

• May 7th: 1 IP with the Yankees up nine

• May 11th: 1 IP with the Yankees down five

The last guy in the bullpen being a waiver claim journeyman who doesn’t get regular work but can still give you two innings in a blowout is perfectly fine. No one would bat an eye at Tonkin going nine days between appearances or throwing five innings across three appearances in the span of four days. I’m just saying hanging onto Tonkin a little longer and sending Burdi or Hamilton to Triple-A isn’t completely crazy.

Someone will have to go to make room for Kahnle. It will probably be Tonkin because the recent waiver claim is usually at the front of the DFA line. Just don’t be shocked if it’s not. Hopefully Tommy Tightpants returns looking as good as his minor league rehab stats suggest he’s looked. It’ll be nice to have him back striking dudes out and getting grounders in the late innings.

LeMahieu and Peraza

DJ LeMahieu (remember him?) is expected to begin a rehab assignment soon. Possibly Friday. He hit a bunch against live pitching at the minor league complex in Tampa and has taken ground balls, and the next step is actual games. LeMahieu started a rehab assignment on April 23rd but pulled himself after an inning with soreness in his foot. He’s ready to try again. Boone indicated it won’t be a short rehab assignment.

“DJ’s now missed seven or eight weeks, so I definitely want to see him get in some games and get some at-bats under his belt,” Boone told Randy Miller and Joyce. “... We don’t have a hard and fast (number of rehab games) with him, but definitely want him to play games and get some volume under his belt. Then we’ll see how comfortable he is as he goes at-bat wise.”

As for Oswald Peraza, this is Day 11 of his 20-day rehab window. He is 4-for-21 (.190) with three homers in six rehab games between Low-A Tampa and Double-A Somerset, though he’s yet to play back-to-back days in the field (he has played three straight days with a DH day in the middle), and the Yankees might want Peraza to check that box before they activate him. He has to be activated by Monday, May 27th.

Obviously Peraza is closer to returning than LeMahieu, and barring injury or setback, I think the moves are pretty straightforward: Peraza will be activated and optioned to Triple-A, then LeMahieu will replace Jahmai Jones. Jones is out of options and I don’t think the Yankees will DFA him until they’re back at full health. You don’t want to DFA him, lose someone else to injury, then have to scramble for a body, you know?

Oswaldo Cabrera is still more or less the starting third baseman – he’s started six of 11 games at the hot corner since Jon Berti returned – so I don’t think he’s getting sent down. Gleyber Torres is starting to hit (finally) and the Yankees aren’t going to cut Trent Grisham. He’s been awful but they need a real backup outfielder. The Yankees aren’t gonna dump Grisham a quarter of the way into the season, I don’t think.

I don’t know what the long-term plan is with Peraza. He doesn’t have anything left to prove in Triple-A but he is not going to unseat Anthony Volpe, and Berti and LeMahieu aren’t going anywhere. Cabrera hasn’t played his way off the roster either, plus he’s more versatile. Peraza’s depth and/or a trade chip. I think that’s what happens though. Peraza to Triple-A, then Jones goes when LeMahieu is ready to return.

3. 2024 draft prospect: Oklahoma State OF Carson Benge. The 2024 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. I’ll create a spreadsheet with links to all the draft prospects I profile soon. Some will be players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some will be players who fit the team’s M.O., and some will be players I happen to like. Little of everything.

Benge, 21, is a lefty hitting and righty throwing outfielder and pitcher. He had Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2022 and did not play that season. Last year he slashed .345/.468/.538 (140 wRC+) with seven homers in 59 games. Benge also allowed 27 runs in 35 innings in his return to the mound. He hit .345/.424/.414 in (only) nine games against top competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer. 

This spring Benge is slashing .328/.444/.672 (151 wRC+) with 15 home runs and more walks (17.2%) than strikeouts (16.0%) in 50 games. He’s also been much better on the mound than he was last year: 2.45 ERA with 27.8% strikeouts and 7.4% walks in 25.2 innings. Here’s where the latest draft prospect rankings have Benge:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 23

• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 28

• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 30

• MLB.com: No. 20

For what it’s worth, the Yankees drafted 2B Roc Riggio (fourth round) and RHP Brian Hendry (tenth round) out of Oklahoma State last summer, so it’s safe to assume their scouts got eyes on Benge. Benge prefers to hit and is considered a better prospect as a position player, so I’ll focus on that. Here’s video and here is MLB.com’s free scouting report on Benge the hitter:

Few college hitters in this class can match Benge's combination of bat-to-ball skills and high exit velocities. A left-handed hitter, he controls the strike zone and uses the opposite field exceptionally well. He hit just seven homers as a redshirt freshman but should have at least average power thanks to his combination of hitting ability and bat speed, and he showed signs of turning on and lifting more pitches during fall practice.

Benge has average speed and is quicker once he gets going. He's a solid defender with plus arm strength in right field, and he perhaps could fill in as a center fielder on occasion. 

One of my inside people (not with the Yankees) said Benge has “point of contact” issues. Specifically, he lets the ball get too deep and sprays everything to the opposite field. In English, he’s late a lot, so he doesn’t pull the ball much and his natural power plays down. Benge’s hit some missiles in college, up to 116 mph exit velocities supposedly, though it doesn’t play as elite power in games. He has to start catching the ball out in front more often.

Point of contact issues are considered fixable as long as they’re related to swing mechanics and not a lack of bat speed. The exit velocity suggests Benge has bat speed. The Dodgers and Orioles are very good at getting these kinda players to level up at the plate. I’m not sure the Yankees have figured it out yet. They develop great minor league hitters. Translating it to MLB hasn’t been the smoothest sailing though.

Beyond the point of contact stuff, Benge is projected as a right fielder long-term, and the Yankees have not taken a corner player in the first round since third baseman Eric Jagielo in 2013. Every first round position player since Jagielo has been a catcher, a shortstop, or a center fielder. The Yankees may believe Benge can stick in center a la Spencer Jones, making this moot. Taking corner guys earlier isn’t their usual move though.

We know the Yankees value exit velocity, perhaps not as much as they did a few years ago (it does seem like there’s been an organizational realization that exit velocity isn’t everything), but they still value it. It can be improved through training to some extent, but, for the most part, you either have it or you don’t, and Benge does. At this stage in the game, get the skill that’s hardest to teach, then work on everything else.

Benge the pitcher is 92-96 with a changeup and an inconsistent breaking ball that sometimes looks like a slider and sometimes looks like a curveball. He’s considered a first round bat and a mid-round arm, one who might fit best as a reliever given his injury history and unrefined secondaries. Pitching is a legitimate fallback plan here though. If hitting doesn’t work out, you can try Benge on the mound. 

4. Rapid fire thoughts. On Jack Curry's podcast (it's on the YES app), Hal Steinbrenner said he would consider discussing an extension with Juan Soto during the season. "This is a unique situation and a very unique player, so I wouldn’t be shocked if there was a conversation or two had possibly during the course of a season. I think it’s worth doing at some point," Hal said. Soto was asked about that Wednesday and he told Erik Boland "my door's always open," and that the Yankees should call Scott Boras. I can't say I'll hold my breath waiting for an in-season extension. If it happens, great, but I don't expect it. Boras is surely eyeing a record contract and the best way to get it is a bidding war (Blue Jays? Giants? Mets?). This isn't Cody Bellinger or Blake Snell with red flags abound. It's a 25-year-old megastar. The bidding war will be there, and it will fierce.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Kevin asks: Would you trade Jasson Dominguez for Isaac Paredes? Any interest in a Sonny Gray reunion if the Cardinals continue to suck? Rothschild is gone and Gray would likely do better under Blake.

To start with the second question, I don’t think the Yankees would have any interest in a Gray reunion, no matter how good he’s been this year (3.05 ERA and 2.77 FIP) or the last few years (Cy Young runner-up in 2023). Even if you blame Larry Rothschild for Gray failing with the Yankees, Brian Cashman threw him under the bus and said Sonny can’t handle New York. It’s hard to walk that back.

“Until someone walks through your door and lives (life as a Yankee), it is hard to know (how they’ll handle it). You try to vet every aspect. You plan and work at it and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn’t,” Cashman Joel Sherman a few weeks before trading Gray away. “... We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results.”

As for Paredes, we’re going to file this one under hypotheticals because there’s basically zero chance it happens, but I don’t think Domínguez for 3.5 years of Paredes is unfair. The Rays typically go for several good prospects over one great prospect with their trades, and to their credit, it usually works. I could see them asking for, say, Clayton Beeter, Ben Rice, Brock Selvidge, and Jared Serna rather than Domínguez.

Paredes turned only 25 in February and he can hit – .262/.359/.491 (142 wRC+) with 39 home runs since last Opening Day – though he goes about it in an unusual way. All his damage is to the pull side. He sells out to yank everything to left field as a right-handed hitter. Here are his hard-hit (i.e. 95+ mph exit velocity) fly balls and line drives since the start of 2023. It’s almost comical:

The contact quality numbers are underwhelming (86.4 mph exit velocity, 5.7% barrel rate, 27.7% hard-hit rate since last year) but Paredes gets the most out of it because he pulls the ball so much, and because he has excellent contact rates. His strikeout (17.6%), swinging strike (7.6%), and in-zone contact (90.1%) rates since the start of last season are all much better than the league averages.

For the Yankees, the downside is Paredes hits everything to left field, the big part of Yankee Stadium, and his third base defense is suspect. He’s already at -2 DRS and -2 OAA this season. I suppose the Yankees could put him at first base down the line, they have to figure out that position too, but the immediate need is at third base. Plus Paredes would simply be more valuable there.

Top prospect Junior Caminero is pretty much MLB ready and coming to take over third base, and Paredes will make $3.4M this year, his first year of arbitration as a Super Two. He’s entering “too expensive for the Rays so they’re going to trade him” territory. I have zero doubt Paredes is available and yes, he would be an upgrade for the Yankees at third base. If he’s a first baseman long-term, then it is what it is.

To answer the question, I’m gonna prospect hug and say no, I wouldn’t trade Domínguez for Paredes. It’s one of those trades where, if the Yankees did it, I wouldn’t like it, but I’d understand it. They're deep in the outfield and thin on the infield (and at third base in particular), and Paredes is about as good a bat as you’re gonna find at the position among players who are realistically available. The trade would make the 2024 Yankees better and not by a little either.

I do have questions about how sustainable this version of Paredes is away from the Rays – it’s a unique hitting style and Tampa is very good at optimizing hitters – but the third base market is what it is. Options are limited. Nolan Arenado looks old and slow and I’m not sure the Rockies will move Ryan McMahon. I love Domínguez so I say no, I wouldn’t do it, but I would understand if the Yankees pulled the trigger. 

(Paredes is gonna be an interesting case as people get a handle on the new bat-tracking data. Robert Orr (subs. req’d) has already started digging into him.)

Mike asks: Any chance Trevino is an all-star again?

Probably not. Not unless he wins the fan voting, which he probably won’t because I assume Rangers fans will stuff the ballot box for Jonah Heim fresh off their World Series win. The AL catching crop is really good this year! Here are the slash lines since defense doesn’t get you to the All-Star Game:

• Ryan Jeffers, Twins: .283/.365/.614 (175 wRC+) and 10 HR

• Sal Perez, Royals: .323/.390/.542 (159 wRC+) and 8 HR

• Cal Raleigh, Mariners: .218/.300/.459 (120 wRC+) and 10 HR

• Adley Rutschman, Orioles: .314/.350/.509 (146 wRC+) and 9 HR

They take three catchers every year, so even if Heim (.277/.327/.383 and 103 wRC+) doesn’t win the fan voting, one of those four dudes is going to get left out. Probably Raleigh given his AVG and OBP, though he is top 15 in homers. Among all players, not just catchers.

Jose Trevino is hitting .291/.337/.442 (126 wRC+) with four home runs, though his 86 plate appearances are 14th most among AL catchers. Jeffers, Perez, and Rutschman are all clearly more deserving than Trevino, and then there’s Heim and the fan voting. Unless Trevino wins the voting, I can’t see him going to the All-Star Game. He’s been great, but there are so many great catchers in the league right now.

Colin asks: Would Ryan Pressly be a good target for the Yankees and how much would it cost? He has an option for next year and could be good to bolster the bullpen this year while also giving insurance if the Yankees don't re-sign Holmes.

Now 35, Pressly took an ugly 5.51 ERA into Thursday’s game, though his underlying numbers are right where they always are: 30.8% strikeouts, 7.7% walks, and 48.9% grounders. From 2021-23, Pressly ran 31.4% strikeout, 6.0% walk, and 53.0% ground ball rates. The .457 BABIP is doing him no favors, and one really bad outing against the Rangers (four runs and one out) is skewing his ERA .

Pressly’s still a premium bat-misser and the Yankees could use one of those. He also checks a box with his big game chops. The case can be made Pressly is the second greatest postseason reliever in history. He is 14-for-14 in save chances and has a 2.22 ERA (2.01 FIP) in 44.2 postseason innings. He’s second on the reliever postseason win probability leaderboard despite being 12th in innings:

1. Mariano Rivera: +11.38 WPA (lol)
2. Ryan Pressly: +2.78 WPA
3. Wade Davis: +2.64 WPA
4. Mike Stanton: +2.34 WPA
5. Rollie Fingers: +2.29 WPA

I’m not saying the Yankees should trade for Pressly specifically because he’s been a great postseason pitcher. I’m just saying I can see it appealing to them. They know he’s not going to wilt in big situations. Pressly has a full no-trade clause to navigate and the Astros need to stay bad for them to sell, which I’m not sure will happen. (GM Dana Brown recently said he “can’t envision” selling at the deadline.)

The 2025 option in Pressly’s contract could be an issue. It’s a $14M option that vests with 50 appearances this year. Pressly’s already at 18. I could see the Yankees steering clear of that potential $14M commitment with Juan Soto’s free agency looming. Would the Astros agree to pay part of the $14M to facilitate the trade? Would Pressly demand the option be guaranteed in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause? It’s a complicating factor, for sure.

(Maybe Pressly will pull a Lance Berkman and demand the option be declined in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause. Berkman did that because he’d already made a fortune and wanted the freedom to pick his team as a free agent after the season. He signed with the Cardinals and helped them win the 2011 World Series, so it worked out for him.)

Top flight rental relievers get traded every deadline. Last summer Jordan Hicks was traded for a top 10 and a top 30 prospect. David Robertson was traded for a top 10 and a top 30 prospect. Aroldis Chapman was traded for (wait for it) a top 10 and a top 30 prospect. That’s the going rate for a rental high leverage guy. One of your 10 best prospects and then a lottery ticket further down the organizational rankings.

Pressly does seem like the type of rental reliever the Yankees would target as a guy who misses a lot of bats and is battle-tested. Would they pay the price in prospects? Is there still animus from the sign-stealing scandal? I mean, yes, there definitely is, but enough to not do business? That I don’t know. Even if not, the no-trade clause and vesting option are potential hang-ups. There’s a fit on the field. A trade just might not be possible though.

Sam asks: With the Yankees bullpen struggling to strike guys out, does Jack Neely seem like a realistic internal option? Given it's very early, he's shown that he can be a strikeout machine. As of this email, he has a 36.5% K rate. His early numbers in Double-A seem to have improved in terms of HR/9 and his GB rate is up. His walks, like other giant relievers before him, are a bit of a problem, but for the last 1-2 spots in the bullpen, he seems like someone who could be a big boost. Could he be more than a September callup guy? He's not on the 40-man, but I don't see Jake Cousins standing in the way.

Neely was one of my Prospects to Know coming into the season and he’s been great since being promoted to Double-A Somerset last August: 2.10 ERA (3.29 FIP) with 37.2% strikeouts and 5.8% walks in 34.1 innings. Over 700 pitchers have thrown at least 80 innings in the minors since the start of last season. Neely’s been as good as anyone at missing bats:

Strikeout Rate
1. Kyle Hurt, Dodgers: 39.1%
2. Jack Neely, Yankees: 38.3%
3. Ben Madison, Giants: 36.5%
4. Logan Henderson, Brewers: 36.2%
5. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers: 35.4%

Swinging Strike Rate
1. Francis Texido, Angels: 23.8%
2. Darlin Saladin, Cardinals: 22.5%
3. Jack Neely, Yankees: 20.9%
4. Kyle Hurt, Dodgers: 19.7%
5. Aldrin Batista, White Sox: 19.3%

Neely turns 24 next month and he has to go on the 40-man roster after the season. The biggest obstacle for him is not his stuff or effectiveness. It’s the players ahead of him on the bullpen depth chart. There’s no room for Ron Marinaccio in the bullpen right now. Or Clayton Beeter. Or Cody Morris, who’s interesting enough to warrant a look at some point (31.7% strikeouts in Scranton). Hard to see Neely jumping all them.

Also, while clearing a 40-man spot for Neely would be a piece of cake, keep in mind that once he goes on the 40-man, he stays on. He’d tie up a spot and limit flexibility a tad, and the Yankees will need a bunch of 40-man spots in the coming weeks for JT Brubaker, Gerrit Cole, Jasson Domínguez, and hopefully Scott Effross and Lou Trivino. Between that and there being so many names ahead of Neely on the bullpen depth chart, I don’t think we’ll see him this year unless things go sideways. Next year will be Neely’s year.

Sandeep asks: Trent Grisham. He’s not really being used and he’s pricey for a 4th outfielder. Assuming the Martian comes back all star-breakish, can anything of value be had for Grisham?

I don’t think so. The Padres were reportedly trying to trade Grisham for a while (even before this winter) and it wasn’t until they attached him to Juan Soto that they actually moved him. Grisham’s a great defender and a poor hitter, and he’s making $5.5M this year. That’s not outrageous but it is at the higher end of the salary scale for this skill set. Michael A. Taylor got $4M this offseason, for example. Travis Jankowski got $1.7M.

Grisham has only 42 plate appearances in 45 team games and in those 42 plate appearances he has a .061/.244/.152 (34 wRC+) slash line. That’s a single, a homer, seven walks, and a hit-by-pitch. I’ve written this a few times the last few months: Grisham is extremely passive. He’s always had some of the lowest swing rates in the game and he’s taken it even further as a part-time player this year. Look at this:

Swing Rate (min. 30 PA)
1. Trent Grisham: 28.2%
2. Dan Vogelbach: 29.2%
3. Joey Bart: 33.3%
(MLB average: 47.1%)

In-Zone Swing Rate (min. 30 PA)
1. Dan Vogelbach: 40.9%
2. Trent Grisham: 43.3%
3. Joey Bart: 45.8%
(MLB average: 65.3%)

Ridiculous. Swing the bat man! Anyway, Grisham is trending toward a non-tender, though the offseason is still a long ways away, so we’ll have to see where the Yankees sit come November. I’m not sure the Yankees want to rely on Jasson Domínguez as their Plan B in center field so soon after Tommy John surgery, so Grisham will likely stick around all season. I don’t see much trade value at all.

(For what it’s worth, Grisham does have options remaining. He’ll reach five years of service time and thus pick up the right to refuse a demotion in late August. The Yankees could send him to Triple-A rather than DFA him until then. Grisham would be a highly paid Triple-A player, but so be it.)

Bill asks: After four Yankees hit home runs on Sunday (last weekend in Tampa), I wondered what is the most number of players homering in a single game? Can't be all nine, can it?

It is not all nine. I was worried this would be a boring answer, something like “the record is seven different home run hitters done 57 times, including once earlier this year,” but nope! The record is eight and it has happened just once: Reds vs. Phillies on Sept. 4th, 1999. Because baseball is a flat circle, there’s a 2024 Yankees tie-in: Aaron Boone was one of the eight home run hitters. Jeffrey Hammonds, Brian Johnson, Mark Lewis, Pokey Reese, Ed Taubensee, Greg Vaughn, and Dmitri Young were the other seven.

Johnson and Lewis were not in the starting lineup. They came off the bench late in the blowout back when teams were allowed more than two September call ups. Taubensee went deep twice. This is one of only two games in history in which one team hit nine homers. The Blue Jays managed to hit 10 home runs against the Orioles on Sept. 14th, 1987. Kinda surprised no team did it with the rocket ball in 2019.

Seven home run hitters has happened nine times, mostly recently by the 2021 Blue Jays against the Red Sox. The Yankees have had seven different players go deep in a game once: July 31st, 2007 against the White Sox. Bobby Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Robinson Canó, Johnny Damon, Shelley Duncan, Hideki Matsui, and Jorge Posada did the honors. Six different home run hitters has happened a couple dozen times throughout history. The Yankees last did it in Pittsburgh in 2022. 

James asks: I watched Judge's home run from Wednesday, May 16th. I can't imagine how a player could hit a ball better than Judge did on that one.  But Judge's HR "only" went 465 feet.  I'm wondering, the Hall of Fame acknowledges that Mickey Mantle hit a HR that went 565 feet. Is Mantle's record too generous or was he just a better hitter than anyone playing today?

I’m sure the 565 feet is generous, but a player hitting a ball 500+ feet back then isn’t necessarily an urban legend. There’s been some talk about Fenway Park’s red seat the last few weeks – the lone red seat in right field marks where a supposed 502-foot Ted Williams home run landed in 1946 – because Triston Casas said the red seat is “starting to feel more and more like a myth.” David Ortiz and a few others have said they don’t think it’s reachable either.

Mike Petriello took a great deep dive into the red seat and, if anything, the home run might’ve gone farther than 502 feet. He looked at bunch of variables , including the neighborhood changes around the ballpark and the impact on wind patterns. 565 feet is a long, long home run. I would guess that’s exaggerated to some degree. It’s not completely impossible that homers traveled farther back then than they do now though. 

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)