May 13th: 2024: Bullpen, Gil, Schmidt, Injury Updates, Volpe, Weaver, Jones, Judge, Stroman, 2024 Draft

Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, made his MLB debut Saturday and struck out seven Cubs in four innings. To clear roster space for Skenes, the Pirates DFAed Roansy Contreras, who was the most highly regarded of the four prospects the Yankees sent them in the Jameson Taillon trade. One of the four, Maikol Escotto, is in High-A and doesn’t rank among Pittsburgh’s top 30 prospects. The other three (Contreras, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Miguel Yajure) have combined for -0.7 WAR since the trade. Taillon wasn’t an ace or anything, but he gave the Yankees 321.2 exactly league average innings (100 ERA+) in two seasons, and the Yankees traded nothing they miss to get him. Put that trade in the win column. Here now is Tuesday’s post on Monday. I got it done Sunday night, so I figured I’d run it a day early on the off-day.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees have scored 10+ runs four times in their last 15 games after going 108 games without scoring 10 runs. That was the second longest streak of single-digit run games in franchise history behind a 165-gamer from 1970-71. In related news, Aaron Judge is swinging the bat better than he has at any other point in 2024. As Judge goes, the offense goes. Here are a few thoughts on the Rays series.

Mother’s Day (near) meltdown

Sunday’s 10-6 final score does not convey how annoying the game was or how close it felt in the late innings. The bullpen – Caleb Ferguson and Nick Burdi, specifically – made things entirely too stressful in the seventh. As much as I enjoy blaming Aaron Boone for anything that goes wrong, the near meltdown is entirely on the players. Consider:

• Ferguson and Burdi walked three batters and hit two others in the inning. Both hit-by-pitches came in two-strike counts. So many free baserunners!

• Rays hitters went 2-for-4 with a double, a homer, two walks, two hit-by-pitches, and a strikeout in two-strike counts in the inning. That’s a .750 OBP.

• Jose Siri is a reverse split guy who hadn’t taken a lefty deep since last July 19th. His last eight homers came against righties before the grand slam off Ferguson.

• Ferguson faced two lefties and retired neither. That includes walking old pal Ben Rortvedt on four pitches. Burdi did not retire any of the three batters he faced.

There was nothing wrong with using Ferguson there. The Yankees had a six-run lead, two of the next four hitters were lefties, and he hadn’t pitched since Wednesday. He was the freshest guy in the bullpen. He just has to be better. Burdi too. Burdi is not blessed with good control, plus it was his second appearance off the injured list, so I’m willing to cut him some slack, but still. He has to be better there.

Ferguson had been pitching well of late (no, really), surrendering just one unearned run in his last seven appearances with seven strikeouts and four baserunners. Sunday’s meltdown gives him a 6.43 ERA (5.44 FIP) in 14 innings though, and those numbers more accurately reflect how I feel when he’s on the mound than “one unearned run in his last seven appearances.” The guy has been shaky more often than not.

Victor González, the other Dodgers lefty the Yankees traded for this winter, has walked twice as many batters as he’s struck out (eight walks and four strikeouts in 12.2 innings), and although his ground ball rate is great (57.5%), the contact quality is not (90.4 mph average exit velocity, 7.5% barrel rate, 50.0% hard-hit rate). González has pitched only three times in May, which suggests Boone doesn’t trust him.

Sunday’s near meltdown and a strikeout rate that is near the bottom of the league aside, the bullpen has been really good overall this season. The bullpen ranks second in ERA (2.69) and first in win probability added (+3.68) even after Sunday. Ferguson and González are a bit of an issue though. They’ll be given every opportunity to turn it around, but don’t be surprised if the Yankees are looking for a lefty reliever come July.

Shoutout to home runs. The Yankees hit five of ‘em Sunday to build a 6-0 lead and then rebuild a 10-5 lead after the bullpen made a mess of things. Jose Trevino went deep twice (video) and is now hitting .293/.341/.453 (129 wRC+) on the season. Only an 11.0% strikeout rate too. Austin Wells has been better of late. The Yankees haven’t gotten this much offense from their catchers since Gary Sanchez’s heyday. 

Sunday’s three-run homer (video) is the latest “please let this get Gleyber Torres on track” moment in a season that’s had a few of them already. Remember the bases clearing double in Milwaukee? The homer at Camden Yards? That the Yankees are ninth in runs per game with Torres being a zero and Judge just now getting going is a minor miracle. Build a statue of Juan Soto.

"For that reason, I always say this is home,” Torres told Brendan Kuty about all the support he’s received during his slow start. “This is more than teammates. It's family. The relationships I have here are amazing and everybody is here with me right now.”

The offense bailed out the bullpen Sunday and sometimes that’s what needs to happen. The pitching staff has certainly picked up the bats often enough the last 13 months. Sometimes the bullpen has a bad game. When you win anyway, it’s a good day. The lefty relief thing is an issue though, and so is a bullpen strikeout rate that has ticked up to 21.2% but still ranks among the lowest in the game.

The rotation stalwarts

Did anyone have Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt being the Yankees’ two best starters a quarter of the way through the season? They have been in terms of ERA, WAR, whatever. Schmidt was great Friday, pitching into the seventh inning and holding the Rays to five singles and two walks in the shutout win (video). He has a 2.95 ERA (3.81 FIP) through eight starts. I’ll have more on him in a bit.

“I know I am capable of controlling my pitch count and (pitching) deeper into games, so this was a big step in the right direction,” Schmidt told Bryan Hoch after Friday’s game. “I feel that is the next puzzle piece in continuing to get better.”

As for Gil, he fought his location in the early innings Sunday (what else is new?), then he settled down and retired 13 of the final 15 batters he faced (video). Gil has allowed one run total in his last three starts and he’s gone at least six innings in all three. Here are the last five Yankees pitchers with a three-start streak of at least six innings and three or fewer hits allowed:

• Luis Gil: May 1, 2024 to present

• Luis Severino: Sept. 3-15, 2017

• Masahiro Tanaka: April 18 to June 3, 2015 (out April 24 to June 2 with a wrist injury)

• Joba Chamberlain: June 19-29, 2009

• David Cone: April 20 to May 1, 1999

No Yankees pitcher has ever strung together four straight starts of at least six innings with no more than three hits allowed, so Gil will shoot for that when he faces the very bad White Sox this weekend.

Gil has been so, so impressive. I figured we were in for a bunch of five-and-fly starts this year, some with more walks than innings, but that hasn’t been the case. Gil is pitching deep into games on the regular and he’s kept the walks at a tolerable level, and he’s so hard to hit. This is a mini-Blake Snell. Yeah, Gil walks more hitters than you’d like, but he makes up for by limiting hits and damage.

“I was able to get a lot of outs today,” Gil told Hoch after Sunday’s win. “Being able to get through the sixth, that’s really the important part for me.”

Marcus Stroman has labored through his last few starts, Nestor Cortes has pitched well in the Bronx (1.59 ERA and 2.21 FIP) and poorly everywhere else (6.75 ERA and 5.21 FIP), and Carlos Rodón has been a bit up and down. More good than bad, I’d say. Gil and Schmidt, not the veterans, have been stabilizing forces in the rotation. Shoutout to those two for pitching as well as they have. What a pleasant surprise.

Baserunning stupidity

Three times last week – three times! three!!! – the Yankees ran themselves out of an inning with either Soto or Judge coming up. To recap:

• Wednesday: Torres and Anthony Volpe got mixed up on an infield single (video)

• Friday: Jon Berti tried to score on an infield single for some reason (video)

• Saturday: Trent Grisham got hung up between second and third (video)

This is the kinda thing that, when it happens the first time, you make sure everyone knows it was dumb, and you’re thankful it wasn’t costly because you won the game in a blowout. Making outs on the bases is bad in general, and doing it when Soto and/or Judge are coming up is brainless baseball. Unless it’s a blowout and we all just want to go home, there is no scenario in which it is okay. 

The second time it happens is inexcusable. The third time represents a complete organizational failure. Is anyone – players, coaches, front office, etc. – paying attention? It didn’t happen three times over a period of several weeks. It happened three times in four days. It’s not good aggressive baserunning if it works. It’s dumb. If there’s even a tiny shred of doubt, play it safe and let Soto or Judge hit with runners on.

The poor fundamentals and dopey mistakes have been a constant during the Boone era. Maybe it’s a complete coincidence! It’s possible, sure. But when you bring in an entirely new coaching staff and the fundamentals immediately go in the tank and stay in the tank for seven years while the roster gets turned over (and over), it is perfectly fair to question the manager and coaches. This is on them now.

I don’t mean to be this grouchy after a great series win in the hellhole that is Tropicana Field. I really don’t. But seeing that same mistake over and over chaps me. These silly unforced errors are among the things that have separated the Yankees from the teams that actually win the World Series the last few years. Running yourself out of an inning with Soto and Judge coming up can’t happen, period, and it just happened three times in four days.

Injury updates and roster moves

Gonna go through these rapid fire style. DJ LeMahieu (foot) faced live pitching at the minor league complex Saturday, and he’ll do it again Tuesday. Notably, LeMahieu faced JT Brubaker, who’s working his way back from Tommy John surgery. If Brubaker is facing hitters in live batting practice, an official rehab assignment can’t be too far away … Lou Trivino (elbow) has been shut down with elbow inflammation, the Yankees revealed over the weekend. He’s two weeks into a 3-4 week shutdown, they say. It’s not uncommon for guys to have to hit pause during Tommy John surgery rehab, but it still stinks. Trivino’s return just got pushed back a few weeks … Scott Effross (elbow, back) will face hitters “soon,” Boone told Gary Phillips. That doesn’t mean he’s close, mind you. He has to go through live batting practice and rehab games and all that, but at least Effross is moving in the right direction … Jasson Dominguez (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment either Tuesday or Wednesday. He’s going to DH the first two weeks. If he begins the rehab assignment Wednesday, the 20-day rehab window will take Domínguez to Monday, June 3rd. What will the Yankees do then? We’ll figure out when the time comes, but El Marciano in games this week. Hooray … Tommy Kahnle went three up, three down with one strikeout in his second rehab game over the weekend. He’s been with Low-A Tampa and I think he’s moving up to Double-A Somerset next. Kahnle will make at least three more rehab appearances before returning. Sounds like we could see him this coming weekend or early next week as long as everything goes well … Oswald Peraza (shoulder) is 3-for-7 with two homers, four walks, and one strikeout in three rehab games. He went deep again Sunday (video). Peraza’s 20-day rehab window runs through Sunday, May 26, and Boone indicated the Yankees will give him a lengthy rehab. So far, so good … And finally, the Yankees released outfielder Luis González over the weekend. The move cleared a Triple-A roster spot for Taylor Trammell, who cleared waivers and was outrighted to Scranton last week. González, 28, was a minor league contract signing over the winter. He hit .282/.374/.397 (106 wRC+) in 22 games with the RailRiders and has big league time with the White Sox and Giants. So long, Luis.

Miscellany

Volpe’s hot again. He is 9-for-27 (.333) a triple and two homers in his last six games. That’s gotten his batting line back up to .265/.350/.414 (123 wRC+). All along, Volpe’s swinging strike rate stayed in the single digits (currently 8.0%), so even while he struggled, he wasn’t flailing away hopelessly. He’s making more contact this year and that is Step 1 in becoming a better hitter … A downside to Sunday’s near meltdown: Luke Weaver was forced into the game and he had to throw 26 pitches to get five outs. He got four outs Thursday (17 pitches), three outs Friday (12 pitches), and he was back in there again Sunday. Instead of a nice three-day break heading into Minnesota, Weaver has pitched three times in four days. Monday’s an off-day and Boone’s history tells us Weaver is unlikely to be available Tuesday . The Yankees almost always give relievers two days of rest after pitching three times in four days. So, instead of Weaver being available Tuesday night, he’ll sit out because Ferguson and Burdi made a mess of things Sunday. Sucks. Anyway, Weaver's last nine appearances: 15.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 20 K … Who gave Soto permission to slump? He singled ahead of Judge’s home run Sunday and that makes him 1-for-14 in his last four games. Soto’s batting line is all the way down to .314/.414/.541 (173 wRC+). I can’t believe some people want to give this guy $500M (give him $600M) … And finally, I hope Jahmai Jones goes into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee. Sunday was his second start of the season (!) and his first at-bat – his home run at-bat (video) – was his first at-bat in 10 days. He worked a walk after falling behind in the count 0-2 later in the game as well. That was impressive. Jones doesn’t play much at all, but his teammates love him, and they were all thrilled for him after his first career homer. What a cool moment. "It’s kind of hard to have a bad day. I love it, man. I love baseball. I love being a part of this team. We’re winning and that’s all that matters. Wherever I fit in, as long as the team’s winning, you’re never going to not see me smiling,” Jones told Erik Boland.

Up Next

The road trip continues with three games in Minnesota. The Yankees are 31-15 all-time at Target Field, postseason included. The Twins are no pushover though. They are 24-16 overall and 17-3 since starting the season 7-13. Are the Twins actually good or merely AL Central good? Getting shut down for six innings by Alek Manoah on Sunday suggests it’s the latter (they hit Manoah in the seventh). Here are the pitching matchups:

• Monday: off-day

• Tuesday at Twins: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Chris Paddack (7:40pm ET)

• Wednesday at Twins: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Pablo López (7:40pm ET)

• Thursday at Twins: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Joe Ryan (1pm ET)

The Twins have six lefties and switch-hitters in their regular lineup and that’s not good news for the current version of Stroman. Stroman has been horrible against lefties this season.

• vs. RHB: .238/.319/.356 (.306 wOBA) with 23.9 K% and 8.8 BB% (113 BF)

• vs. LHB: .290/.405/.613 (.437 wOBA) with 17.6 K% and 16.2 BB% (74 BF)

Stroman has a 59.2% ground ball rate against lefties, so he’s doing what he needs to do there, and his HR/FB rate is a comical 45.5%. That’s just not gonna last. History tells us Stroman’s HR/FB rate against lefties will settle into the 14% range. Factor in Yankee Stadium and possible age-related decline, and maybe it’s 18% or even 20% this year. But 45.5%? lol no. Hopefully that begins to correct this week.

2. Four things you may or may not know about the 2024 Yankees. It’s time for another edition of things you may or may not know about this year’s Yankees. The first edition ran two and a half weeks ago. Let’s jump right into it, shall we?

Judge has as many doubles as homers

I came back to the “things you may or may not know about the 2024 Yankees” well so soon because I did not know much longer I would be able to use this stat. Aaron Judge went deep Sunday (video), giving him 10 home runs and also 10 doubles in 42 games. Forty-one games is, by frickin’ far, the deepest Judge has gone into a season with more doubles than homers.

Here’s when Judge’s doubles total last exceeded his home run total:

• 2016: Never (homered in first at-bat)

• 2017: Game 5

• 2018: Game 5

• 2019: Game 7

• 2020: Game 3

• 2021: Never (hit four homers before first double)

• 2022: Game 18

• 2023: Never (homered in first at-bat)

Unless he goes on a doubles run these next few weeks, it’ll be Game 41 for 2024. The closest Judge has ever come to having more doubles than homers in a season was his partial rookie year in 2016, when he had two doubles and four homers. In a full season, it’s 2018, when he had 22 doubles and 27 homers. For his career, Judge has 267 home runs and only 147 doubles.

Among players with at least 267 career homers, Judge’s 147 doubles are by far the fewest – Roger Maris is a distant second with 195 doubles – and his 1.82 HR/2B ratio is fifth highest among the 248 players in the 250-homer club. Would you believe he’s not even the active leader?

1. Mark McGwire: 2.31 (583 HR and 252 2B)
2. Harmon Killebrew: 1.98 (573 HR and 290 2B)
3. Kyle Schwarber: 1.95 (255 HR and 131 2B)
4. Dave Kingman: 1.84 (442 HR and 240 2B)
5. Aaron Judge: 1.82 (267 HR and 147 2B)

There isn’t any significance to Judge hitting so many more homers than doubles – he’s an extreme power hitter who also plays in a home ballpark that inflates homers and suppresses non-homers – but it is a fun little statistical quirk I’ve enjoyed over the years. I was hoping Judge would make it to today with more doubles than homers, but alas, he went deep Sunday. The Yankees needed him to too.

Schmidt has the second largest K% increase in baseball

What a performance by Clarke Schmidt on Friday. He did, however, strike out only six of the 24 batters he faced, lowering his season strikeout rate to 27.0%. Even still, Schmidt has the second largest strikeout rate increase in baseball. Here are the largest strikeout rate increases among the 26 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings last year and have thrown at least 40 innings this year:

1. Brady Singer: +6.2% (18.9% to 25.1%)
2. Clarke Schmidt: +5.5% (21.5% to 27.0%)
3. Dylan Cease: +5.1% (27.3% to 32.4%)
4. Jon Gray: +3.9% (21.6% to 25.5%)
5. Zack Wheeler: +3.1% (26.9% to to 30.0%)

In January, I wrote one way Schmidt can improve is doing a better job putting hitters away in two-strike counts. Believe it or not, he’s been worse in two-strike counts this season. Last year Schmidt allowed a .207/.270/.313 line in two-strike counts. That was about 23% worse than league average. This year it’s a .229/.312/.344 line in two-strike counts. That’s roughly 63% worse than average. Hmmm. (MLB average in two-strike counts is .166/.245/.254.)

Similar to last season, Schmidt is among the best in the game at getting ahead in the count 0-2. He’s gone 0-2 to 26.4% of the batters he’s faced this year. The league average is 21.4%. The strikeout rate increase is great, but Schmidt still isn’t doing the best job putting hitters away in two-strike counts. Improving that is how he can get to the next level. Hopefully the strikeout rate increase is a sign it’ll happen soon.

The defense has helped and hurt Stroman

Marcus Stroman has never been a strikeout pitcher. He’s a pitch to (weak) contact type, so he needs a good defense. Defense starts with the man behind the plate, and no pitcher in baseball has benefited from framing as much as Stroman. He leads all pitchers with +3 framing runs, per Statcast, and he also leads in strike rate. By a lot:

1. Marcus Stroman: 63.2%
2. Jack Flaherty: 61.5%
3. Trevor Richards: 59.0%
4. Tanner Houck: 58.2%
5. Logan Allen: 58.2%

This isn’t a Jose Trevino thing either. Austin Wells has caught five of Stroman’s eight starts and 27.2 of his 42.2 innings, so the bulk of that framing support has come from the rookie. Wells does his best framing work at the bottom of the zone and also on the left-handed batter’s side of the plate, where Stroman pitches frequently. Here is Wells’ framing heat map (catcher’s view):

Red is good, blue is bad, and the darker the red, the better Wells is at framing in that location. His framing strengths align with Stroman’s pitching style. Same with Trevino! He’s a better framer than Wells overall and specifically in those locations, but Wells has become a very good framer too. No matter who’s behind the plate, they’re doing good work getting strikes for Stroman.

The framing support has been great. The rest of the defense has not. The defense is at -3 OAA behind Stroman, the lowest mark among Yankees starters. Only 14 pitchers in the game have received worse support from their defense on balls in play. Here are the Yankees’ starters and their defensive support:

• Nestor Cortes: +1 OAA

• Luis Gil: +1 OAA

• Carlos Rodón: +1 OAA

• Clarke Schmidt: +0 OAA

• Marcus Stroman: -3 OAA

Makes sense, right? Stroman is a ground ball pitcher (55.7%) and the Yankees have an iffy infield defense. Cortes (30.1% grounders), Gil (38.4%), Rodón (33.9%), and Schmidt (37.0%) are all fly ball pitchers and that plays a little better for the Yankees defensively. Stroman relies on his infield and that is not where the Yankees are at their best, defensively. This isn’t the most surprising thing in the world.

Stroman has gotten more help from his catchers than any pitcher in the game – that makes his career high 11.8% walk rate a bit more troubling, no? – and only a handful of pitchers have been hurt by their defense more than Stroman. He’s on both ends of the spectrum here. Benefits from great framing and gets hurt by shoddy defense when the ball is put in play.

The Yankees are second in home run differential

This says more about the pitching than the offense, really. The pitching staff has a 0.96 HR/9, tenth best in baseball despite calling homer happy Yankee Stadium home. This is the plan, right? The Yankees built their staff (particularly the bullpen) around the ability to limit hard contact and that equals fewer homers allowed. Sunday’s near bullpen meltdown aside, the pitching has been so good this year.

On that note, here is the home run differential leaderboard:

1. Orioles: +20 (60 hit and 40 allowed)
2. Yankees: +17 (57 hit and 40 allowed)
3. Athletics: +17 (55 hit and 38 allowed)
4. Phillies: +15 (49 hit and 34 allowed)
5. Dodgers: +13 (56 hit and 43 allowed)

The Mets at +12 are the only other team over +10. At the bottom of the pile is the White Sox at -26. Second worst? The Rays at -19. The Yankees contributed to that this past weekend. Hit homers and don’t give up homers. Pretty good recipe there, and only one team has done it better than the Yankees so far this year.

3. 2024 draft coverage kickoff. It is the middle of May and it’s time to get into draft content. The draft takes place during the All-Star break now even though front offices hate it. July is a very busy time of year now. There’s the draft, then the All-Star Game, then the trade deadline one right after the other. Good for baseball overall, I think. Less good for lemmings like me who have to cover it all.

ANYWAY, as I do each year, I will profile prospects between now and the draft. Some will be players who appear to fit the Yankees’ preferred profile, some will be players I like, and some will be neither. We usually cover enough ground to hit the player the Yankees will take in the first round. Here are my 2020 Austin Wells, 2021 Trey Sweeney, 2022 Spencer Jones, and 2023 George Lombard Jr. pre-draft profiles.

I’ll start diving into the individual draft prospect profiles later this week. But first, let’s cover the basics of the 2024 draft, shall we?

Draft details

The All-Star Game is in Texas this year and the three-day draft will begin Sunday, July 14th. MLB is slacking and has not yet announced the draft details (where exactly it will be held, start times, etc.), though I assume it’ll be televised on MLB Network and ESPN again, and will follow the same schedule as the last few years. In that case, we’re looking at:

• Day 1: First round through compensation rounds (first 74 picks)

• Day 2: Rounds 3-10

• Day 3: Rounds 11-20

The MLB draft isn’t a made-for-television event but at least the league is trying. The problem is these kids disappear into the minors for a few years. A casual fan isn’t going to tune in to see their favorite team draft next year’s starting center fielder, you know?

The fourth annual draft combine will be held June 18-21 at Chase Field. Over 300 players attended last year’s combine, so figure that many or more will be there this year. I believe Spencer Jones still holds the record for the hardest hit ball at the combine. The Yankees liked what they saw from Brock Selvidge, my No. 18 prospect, at the 2021 combine, and gave him a $1.5M bonus as their third round pick.

Bonus pool and slot values

The Yankees neither signed nor lost a qualified free agent this past offseason, and they haven’t traded for a Competitive Balance Pick, so they have their full allotment of draft picks this year. No more, no less. Here are the slot values for their picks, via Jim Callis:

• 1st round (No. 26 overall): $3,332,900

• 2nd round (No. 53 overall): $1,721,200

• 3rd round (No. 89 overall): $838,900

• 4th round (No. 119 overall): $606,700

• 5th round (No. 152 overall): $440,100

• 6th round (No. 182 overall): $339,600

• 7th round (No. 211 overall): $265,800

• 8th round (No. 241 overall): $215,100

• 9th round (No. 271 overall): $192,600

• 10th round (No. 301 overall): $181,600

That adds up to an $8,134,500 bonus pool, seventh smallest this year. It’s also the largest bonus pool the Yankees have ever had, topping their $7,957,400 pool in 2013. They had extra picks for losing Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano to free agency that year (the Swisher pick was used on Aaron Judge). Last year the Yankees had a $5,299,400 pool after forfeiting their second and fifth rounders to sign Carlos Rodón.

Rounds 11-20 have a flat $150,000 slot and every dollar over $150,000 counts against the bonus pool. Same with undrafted free agents. The bonus pool is a soft cap and teams can exceed their pool up to 5% and pay a tax on the overage as a penalty. Go over 5% and you start forfeiting future picks, something no team has done. The Yankees have spent the extra 5% just about every year. With that, their pool is $8,541,225.

Here is the full draft order. The Yankees wound up with the No. 16 pick through the lottery – the Reds had the same 82-80 record as the Yankees last year and moved up to the No. 2 pick (lucky them) – which is the same pick they would’ve had through reverse order of the standings. That pick was then moved back 10 spots to No. 26 because of their luxury tax status. They had the No. 26 last year. Baseball is a flat circle.

The Vanderbilt pipeline

There is a Vanderbilt to the Yankees pipeline these days – Spencer Jones played there and both George Lombard Jr. and Anthony Volpe were committed to go there – and it’s not a coincidence. The Yankees don’t specifically target Vanderbilt kids, necessarily. It’s just that the Yankees and Vanderbilt value similar traits in their players, so they wind up swimming in the same talent pool. There’s a lot of overlap.

“They recruit good players. They have a good program, just like we do. They do their deep dives into what kind of human being they recruit,” scouting director Damon Oppenheimer told Greg Joyce following the Lombard pick last year. “So when it comes to Volpe, when it comes to Spencer, when it comes to this year with George, there’s a common theme that we’re getting guys with talent that have good intestinal fortitude. They have work ethic. They’re kind of advanced mentally.”

Vanderbilt’s not having a typical Vanderbilt powerhouse season (34-18 overall but 12-15 in SEC play) and they don’t have any top tier prospects or recruits in this summer’s draft. MLB.com’s top 150 draft prospects are out. Here are the kids with Vanderbilt ties:

• No. 33: RHP Bryce Cunningham (Vanderbilt)

• No. 47: LHP Carter Holton (Vanderbilt)

• No. 63: RHP Owen Hall (Vanderbilt recruit)

• No. 112: SS Rustan Rigdon (Vanderbilt recruit)

The Yankees haven’t taken a pitcher in the first round since Clarke Schmidt in 2017 and I don’t think they’d buck the trend for Cunningham, who’s a 95-and-a-slider type. The pitchers the Yankees have drafted high in recent years stood out in ways that are more uncommon. Think Brendan Beck’s command, Drew Thorpe’s changeup, etc. The Yankees do the 95-and-a-slider thing in the middle rounds.

Mock drafts

With the caveat that there are always supremely talented players available and teams are better at player development than ever, the 2024 draft class is considered one of the weaker classes in recent memory. Last year’s draft class was loaded because a bunch of talented high schoolers who got squeezed out of the five-round draft in 2020 came out of college in 2023. That isn’t the case this year.

Georgia 3B/OF Charlie Condon, the consensus No. 1 draft prospect, is hitting .454/.567/1.083 with 34 home runs in 50 games this season. Those 34 homers are the most since the NCAA adopted BBCOR bats in 2011. Oregon State 2B Travis Bazzana, the No. 2 prospect, is hitting .426/.591/.994 with 26 home runs. It’s possible a shortstop won’t be taken in the top 10 picks. That’s kinda hard to believe.

The Guardians won the lottery and have the No. 1 pick for the first time ever. All the early mock drafts have them taking Condon with the No. 1 pick, then things kinda open up from there. Here’s what the early mock drafts say about the Yankees and that No. 26 pick (listed in order of when they were published):

Baseball America v1.0 (subs. req’d):

26. Yankees — PJ Morlando, 1B/OF, Summerville (S.C.) HS 
Morlando is perhaps the best pure hitter in a light high school class. In our preseason best tools balloting from MLB scouting directors he was voted first in pure hit tool and power, though a likely corner outfield or first base role means teams will have to have plenty of conviction on those offensive tools. This mock has him in the same spot as Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas from the 2018 draft. Boston drafted Casas as a third baseman with a reasonably similar profile before he eventually slid over to first.

Baseball America v2.0 (subs. req’d):

26. Yankees — Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State
If you wanted to make a case that Dakota Jordan should be a lot closer to UNC’s Vance Honeycutt, I wouldn’t argue with you too much. Like most of the players in the back third of this mock, there’s lots of split-camp opinions on Jordan who has probably the best pure bat speed in this class and gargantuan raw power but real contact questions. His raw power stacks up with the likes of Charlie Condon and Jac Caglianone. He’s slashing .376/.500/.780 with 15 home runs in the SEC but he also has a 26.4% career strikeout rate and is not a great defender or base stealer despite plus speed.

MLB.com v1.0:

26. Yankees: Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke (No. 29)
The Yankees haven’t taken a pitcher with their first pick since 2017, but right now it seems like the bats they’d be interested in are already off the board in this first mock. This could point them to a college arm like Santucci, who is athletic and misses bats, though he’s struggled with his command this year.

Nothing to add to the mock drafts. It’s too early to have even an inkling of which way the Yankees might go. We’re still a few weeks away from the Yankees connected to specific players. Mock drafts right now reflect the stock of the players more than the team’s interest. Those are the mock drafts if you’re interested though. Here again is MLB.com’s top 150 draft prospects list. All the scouting reports are free.

MLB warns teams not to encourage prospects to become IFAs

And finally, Kiley McDaniel reports MLB issued a memo warning teams not to encourage draft prospects to drop out of school and establish residency in a foreign country so they could instead sign as international free agents. Here’s part of the memo. It might as well start with “I can’t believe I have to say this, but …”

It has come to our attention that Clubs have been encouraging amateur players in the United States to withdraw from, or otherwise refrain from playing, high school baseball in the United States and/or Canada, in order to try to establish residency in a foreign country, in an effort to make themselves eligible to sign under the International Amateur Talent System instead of the Rule 4 Draft ... (Violators) shall be subject to significant penalties, including, but not limited to, the denial of player selection rights under the [MLB draft] or loss of benefits under the International Amateur Talent System."

Some team (maybe the Yankees!) must’ve crossed the line and done something really egregious for MLB to send out a memo. I assume the team went to a kid they don’t expect to get to their draft slot and tried to talk him into leaving the country (!) so they could instead sign him as an international free agent. There’s a non-zero chance it worked (or came close to working), which is why MLB had to act.

There are ways to skip the draft and go through international free agency without skirting MLB’s rules. Henry Lalane, my No. 7 prospect, did it. He split his time between New York and the Dominican Republic growing up and has dual citizenship, so he was able to sign as an international free agent. A bunch of kids do that each year. But asking a player to voluntarily leave the country? Seems crazy to me.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. I haven’t had a chance to dig into it, but Statcast’s bat tracking data is now live. We have access to bat speed and things like that. ESPN put up this graphic during Sunday Night Baseball:

So yeah, bat speed is important. Giancarlo Stanton leads all hitters with an 80.6 mph average bat speed (this is something we learned last year), well ahead of second place Oneil Cruz (77.7 mph). Aaron Judge (76.5 mph) and Juan Soto (76.1 mph) are also top 10. Click the link and you’ll see Soto is out on his own little island when it comes to pairing elite bat speed with squared up rate. He is unmatched when at swinging hard while making contact. Special player. 

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)