May 10th, 2024: Judge, Soto, Gil, Volpe, Peraza, Kahnle, Rodón, Mailbag

Fun fact: Wednesday and Thursday were only the third time this season the Yankees allowed at least four runs in back-to-back games (they also did it in Arizona and Toronto). They’re the only team to not allow at least four runs in three straight games at any point this year. Every other team other than the Cubs, Dodgers, Guardians, and Reds has had at least a four-game streak of at least four runs allowed. The run prevention has been so, so good this season. May it continue this weekend. Let’s get to today’s post as Clayton Beeter strikes out Joey Gallo (Yankees win the trade!).

1. Weekday thoughts. Hard to complain about going 6-1 against the Astros, but damn, Thursday felt like a game the Yankees should have won. Getting nothing out of first and second with no outs in the first inning was a killer. The Yankees had won nine straight against the Astros dating back to last season before that loss. It was their first nine-game winning streak against a single team since that absurd 19-game winning streak against the hard tanking Orioles from 2019-20. The Yankees came close to sweeping a team in a season series of at least six games for the first time since going 7-0 against (who else?) the Twins in 2009. Alas. A few thoughts on the last few games. 

Judge is back (for real this time) (I think)

Is Aaron Judge back? Like, for real? There have been a few times this season in which it looked like he was back, only for him to go in the tank again. Judge went 5-for-12 (.417) with two doubles and two homers in the Astros series and is 16-for-43 (.372) with five homers in his last 12 games. That even includes his very bad series in Baltimore. Judge does look more Judgian, as Thursday’s 473-homer attests (video).

“Judge has been locked in the last couple days,” Juan Soto told Greg Joyce following Wednesday’s win. “Really excited for that. I can’t wait to see him going crazy like today. It’s going to be great.”

Earlier this year it seemed Judge’s timing was off and I cited his sky high pop up rate as possible evidence. His pop up rate has been steadily trending down and it Judge has done a better job of hammering hittable pitches lately. Before he’d pop it up, foul it back, whiff, whatever. Now he’s hitting rockets all over the field. This is progress:

Line drives going up, infield pop ups going down (to zero the last few games). As recently as last Friday, Judge was hitting .197/.331/.393 (110 wRC+). He’s now up to .236/.362/.492 (143 wRC+). That’s still south of Judge’s usual production, but it is much improved. Hopefully he’s out of the woods for real this time, and we’re not sitting here in a week wondering what’s wrong again.

As for Soto, that guy is just incredible. He’s hitting .333/.438/.578 (190 wRC+) and he went 15-for-28 (.536) with a double, two homers, five walks, and two strikeouts in the seven games against the Astros. He drove in nine runs. Need a homer? Soto hits a homer. Need him to get on base to start a rally? He gets on base. Need him to shorten up and get a run in? He does that too. Whatever you need.

I’ve watched Soto play for a long time and I knew he was great, and he’s even better when you watch him every single day. Every at-bat is an event and he dictates the action, not the pitcher. This is baseball, even the all-time greats make an out more than half the time, but when Soto makes an out, I feel like the pitcher got lucky. Judge in 2022 was the same way. I’ve felt that way about Mookie Betts the last few years too. Soto is so good and Judge is as close to being back as he’s looked all year. Fun days ahead.

"It's as good as I've been with in other lineups," Soto told David Adler after he, Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton all went deep in the same game for the first time Wednesday.. "How much power those guys have is just incredible. So for me, hitting in front of those guys is a great feeling. I've hit in front of great hitters before too., but definitely these guys have a huge amount of power."

Gil > Verlander

Luis Gil outpitched a Cy Young winner for the second straight start. He was not as dominant Tuesday against Justin Verlander as he was last week against Corbin Burnes, but, at the end of the day, one run in six innings is one run in six innings. The pitching line: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 HR (video). The only hit he allowed was Kyle Tucker’s first inning homer. 

“When you have an opportunity to face guys like (Burnes and Verlander), that are some of the best pitchers in the world, you have to see it as motivation to go out there and execute the plan you have,” Gil told Erik Boland. “But it’s a total group effort.”

Gil ran into trouble in the third inning when he walked Tucker and Yordan Alvarez back-to-back, both times after getting ahead in the count 0-2, but he escaped the jam, and retired 10 of the final 11 batters he faced. Gil’s 15.7% walk rate is the highest in baseball, and that’s just who he is right now. Perhaps one day he’ll improve his control. Right now, it’s hit or miss each time out. It is what it is.

At the same time, Gil has allowed a .143 AVG against, second lowest in baseball behind Dylan Cease (.128). Despite all those walks, his .283 OBP allowed is middle of the pack among qualified pitchers rather than at the bottom. Gil’s just ahead of Zac Gallen (.284 OBP). The man is very, very difficult to hit. Statcast sliders aren’t everything, but Gil has red in all the right places:

Gil has managed a 77th percentile whiff rate despite a 19th percentile chase rate. There’s a pretty strong correlation between chases and whiffs (duh), but Gil’s an outlier. Among the 89 pitchers with at least 150 batters faced, Gil has the 14th highest whiff rate and the 12th lowest chase rate. That’s a testament to his ability to miss bats in the zone, which is more or less the single best skill a pitcher can have.

"To me, it almost looks like the fastball is like 110 mph,” Anthony Volpe told Gary Phillips about Gil. “Like it's the hardest fastball they've seen. So I think that's always gonna play.”

Jose Trevino has caught Gil’s last two starts and his three best starts of the season overall – Gil has a .347 OPS and 2.4 K/BB with Trevino and a .696 OPS and 1.6 K/BB with Austin Wells – and the Yankees should keep them together. That's not meant to be a knock on Wells! But he’s a rookie trying to find his way in the league, like Gil. Pairing Gil with the veteran catcher seems sensible, no? I think so.

Gerrit Cole threw his second bullpen earlier this week and he’ll travel with the Yankees to Tampa this weekend. He is still weeks away though. “Who comes out of the rotation when Cole returns?” is not a thing we have to think about right now. Gil has done a hell of a job filling in though: 2.92 ERA (3.79 FIP) in seven starts, including completing six innings the last to times out. There’s so much to like here even with the walks. Gil really has been tremendous.

“He’s just got a lot of weapons. He’s hard to hit,” Aaron Boone told Boland following Tuesday’s game. “On a night it wasn’t necessarily all clicking for him, it just speaks to how capable he is.”

Volpe vs. Verlander

The cat and mouse game between Volpe and Verlander was evident Tuesday, and it was fun watching it play out. Volpe hasn’t been great against fastballs this season (.250 AVG and .365 SLG entering Thursday) and he’s swung at the first pitch in only 19.9% of his plate appearances this year. The MLB average is 30.8% first pitch swings, and a .255 AVG and a .410 SLG against fastballs.

Verlander and the Astros knew all that, so, first at-bat, they gave Volpe a first pitch fastball in the zone because it was a reasonably "safe" way to get a strike, and he was looking for it. Drove it to the warning track in right-center (video). Second at-bat, same thing. First pitch fastball and Volpe drove it to the warning track in right (video). So, after two hard-hit balls on first pitch heaters, Verlander switched things up in the third at-bat, and gave Volpe a first pitch curveball. He took it like a champ. I mentally swung at this pitch:

At that point Verlander is behind in the count 1-0, there’s a runner on first base, and Soto and Judge are looming. You can’t get too cute there and risk falling further behind in the count, so Verlander went back to the fastball – again, Volpe has not been a great fastball hitter this season – and this time Volpe hit it into the short porch for a two-run homer (video). Volpe was ready for Verlander’s fastball all night.

"We had a really good plan and were really prepared going in, and when that translates into success on the field, that's super encouraging," Volpe told Bryan Hoch after the game. "Obviously he's an incredible Hall of Fame pitcher. But a lot of guys have had a lot of at-bats, and certain guys have a lot of success against him. We were just trying to go out and be aggressive."

The Yankees hit Verlander hard Tuesday – seven runs are the second most they’ve ever scored against him in 37 meetings, postseason included (they tagged him for eight runs in 2008) – and it does look like Father Time is catching up to him. Strikeout, walk, and whiff rates are all trending in the wrong direction. Verlander had a shoulder issue this spring and he’s only made four starts this year, but the guy is 41. Looking diminished at that age is expected.

Well, whatever. Verlander’s decline and the Astros being 11 games under .500 is not my problem. Bashing Verlander and the Astros was cathartic. The Yankees outscored them 43-22 in the seven games this year. There’s no going back and making up for the 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2022 postseasons. All you can do is beat them in the present, and the Yankees mopped the floor with Houston in 2024.

Injury updates and roster moves

Gonna run through these rapid fire style: Oswald Peraza (shoulder) started a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday. He went deep in his second at-bat (video) and is 2-for-5 with the homer through two games with Low-A Tampa. This would have been Week 8 of Peraza’s 6-8 week shutdown period, so he’s essentially right on schedule. Position players get a 20-day rehab window (they can always be activated earlier) and that means Peraza has to come off the injured list no later than Monday, May 27th. What will the Yankees do with him then? Beats me. Let’s see what the roster looks like once Peraza gets his legs under him and is ready to be activated. With the way the parties involved have performed at second and third bases, it’s not hard to see how Peraza could get regular at-bats … Tommy Kahnle (shoulder) started a rehab assignment Wednesday night. He went three up, three down with two strikeouts with Low-A Tampa. His fastball hit 95.2 mph. Boone told Max Goodman that Kahnle will make at least five rehab appearances, which is more or less a typical Spring Training workload for a reliever. Hopefully Kahnle brings last season’s 29.1% strikeout rate with him whenever he returns … Jasson Domínguez (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment “inside two weeks” and will DH initially, Boone told Gary Phillips the other day. Teams can request a second rehab window for pitchers working their way back from Tommy John surgery, though I don’t know if that applies to position players. If Domínguez starts his rehab assignment two weeks from today, the 20-day rehab window takes him to Tuesday, June 13th. That would be one week short of nine months since the day of his surgery, and the Yankees initially announced a 9-10 month recovery. I dunno. We’ll see how it goes. Point is, El Marciano is inching closer to playing in real live games … Nick Burdi (hip) will be back Friday. He made a rehab appearance with Triple-A Scranton earlier this week (three up, three down, three strikeouts) and he's been with the Yankees the last few days. Ron Marinaccio was sent down after Thursday’s game to open the roster spot (Marinaccio facing the top of the lineup in the ninth inning of a one-run game when Clay Holmes hasn’t pitched since Saturday felt like a “he’s going down tomorrow so let’s use him and rest everyone else” moment). The Yankees are keeping Michael Tonkin to preserve pitching depth for the time being (Tonkin will presumably be the move for Kahnle when the time comes) … Taylor Trammell cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A earlier this week. He was DFAed to open a roster spot for Jon Berti last week. Trammell barely played during his two weeks with the Yankees, but he’s only 26 and he’s a multi-time top 100 prospect. I’m glad he’s hanging around as a non-40-man roster player just on the off-chance he puts it together this summer … And finally, the Yankees used the open 40-man spot from DFAing Trammell to claim righty Colby White from the Rays. He’s allowed 17 runs in 7.2 Triple-A innings this year, so the Yankees sent him to Double-A. White, 26 in July, had prospect shine back in the day, though his fastball/slider/splitter combination hasn’t been the same since Tommy John surgery in 2022. He’s an inventory arm until he gives us a reason to think otherwise.

Miscellany

Tuesday night Stanton hit one of those home runs only Stanton can hit (video). It was 118.8 mph off his bat, at the time the second hardest ball of 2024 (Stanton’s homer Wednesday was 119.9 mph (video), which is now the hardest hit ball of 2024), and it had a 15-degree launch angle. The thing barely got off the ground. Since Statcast launched in 2015, there have been only 40 home runs with a launch angle no higher than 15 degrees, and 10 of those were inside-the-parkers. Stanton has five of the other 30 (no one else has more than two). There have been 49,340 outside-the-park homers in the Statcast era, and only 30 had a 15-degree launch angle or lower. Stanton’s homer was a 1-in-1,644 shot, give or take. Ridiculous … Very good bounceback start for Carlos Rodón. His 16 whiffs were a season high (by four), and, in his last three starts, Rodón has 21 strikeouts and one walk in 16.1 innings. In related news, Rodón’s upped the usage of his slider the last few times out:

Five homers in the last three starts isn’t great, but given Rodón’s extreme fly ball tendencies, we’re just going to have to live with the homers. Keep them to solo shots and it’s fine. Glad the strikeouts are ticking back up … It wasn’t a disaster, but it certainly wasn’t a good start for Marcus Stroman on Thursday. He’s up to 18 runs and 54 baserunners (.396 OBP!) in his last six starts and 30.2 innings. Stroman’s allowed seven homers in 42.2 innings this year (with a dead-ish ball) after giving up nine homers in 136.2 innings last year. Six weeks into the season, he’s the weak link in the rotation … An update on the race to have the worst contract year:

• Alex Bregman: .198/.274/.260 (58 wRC+) and +0.0 WAR

• Gleyber Torres: .215/.301/.264 (71 wRC+) and +0.1 WAR

Bregman hit sixth behind the lefty hitting Jon Singleton against Rodón the other day. Sheesh. Anyway, Torres drew four walks in the Astros series after drawing four walks in his previous 21 games. A sign his plate discipline is back where it needs to be and he’s close to breaking out? I hope so. I know he opened the ninth inning with a single Thursday, but my goodness, Gleyber’s been so bad this year … And finally, Wednesday was a good “Ian Hamilton has to work on stuff” game. He entered with the bases empty and two outs in the eighth inning of a game the Yankees led by five, and got the final four outs. Hamilton didn’t pitch especially well – he gave up a run and three of the seven batters he faced reached base – but those are the kinda situations he needs to be in right now. Big lead and a chance to really work through things, not a situation where he’ll get yanked after three batters and like 12 pitches.

Up next

The homestand is over and the Yankees now head out on a six-game, seven-day road trip through Tampa and Minneapolis. The home away from home and then the other home away from home. The Yankees are 31-15 all-time at Target Field, postseason included. That’s a 109-win pace across 162 games. We’ll worry about the Twins next week. First up is Tampa. Here are the weekend’s pitching matchups:

• Friday at Rays: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Taj Bradley (7pm ET)

• Saturday at Rays: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Zack Littell (4pm ET)

• Sunday at Rays: RHP Luis Gil vs. TBA (1:40pm ET)

Bradley will make his season debut Friday after suffering a pectoral injury in Spring Training. He made two Triple-A rehab starts and is stepping right back into the rotation because Ryan Pepiot took a comebacker to the leg the other day, and had to go on the injured list. Bradley had a 5.59 ERA (4.79 FIP) in 104.2 innings last year, though he was one of the game’s better pitching prospects at this time last year.

Lefty Tyler Alexander lines up to pitch Sunday, so that TBA spot means we’re playing the “will they pair him with an opener?” game again. The Rays didn’t give Alexander an opener against the Yankees a few weeks ago and he held them to two hits in 5.1 scoreless innings, annoyingly. Also, Randy Arozarena, despite his .147/.247/.301 (65 wRC+) line, is coming around. He has three homers in his last six games.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. Fun prospect update: Josh Tiedemann is indeed a two-way player. The Yankees announced him as a two-way player as their 13th round pick last year, but, prior to Thursday, he had only DHed as a pro. Tiedemann made his pitching debut Thursday: 2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 3 K as the starter for the rookie Florida Complex League Yankees. He threw two scoreless innings before things unraveled in the third. Tiedemann did not hit for himself in Thursday’s game and is 3-for-6 with two walks and two strikeouts in his two games at DH this year (the FCL season started last weekend). Now we await reports on what his stuff looks like. Tiedemann’s not a top prospect, but there is an honest-to-goodness two-way player in the farm system. How fun.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Before we get to this week’s mailbag, I have a follow up to last week’s question about Anthony Rizzo tossing the ball to the pitcher rather than taking it to the bag himself. Friend of the blog Lucas Apostoleris ran the numbers and found that Rizzo flips the ball to the pitcher more than any other first baseman in the league. Here’s Lucas (links go to his spreadsheets):

I just took plays at first base on which one out was recorded (so no double plays), coded as a groundball, and either the first baseman made the play unassisted or was credited with the assist to one other fielder. Then the rate is just of plays where the first baseman made a throw. First sheet is since 2023, second sheet is since 2000. Setting reasonable minimums, Rizzo is tops on both. Also, nice pull on Teixeira – the numbers back up your recollection that he would "take it himself" a higher than normal percentage of the time.

Since the start of last year, Rizzo has flipped the ball 70.5% of the time. Freddie Freeman is a distant second at (64.3%). Jake Cronenworth is on the other end of the spectrum at 30.7%, and there are more first basemen under 40% (six) than over 60% (four). Go back to 2000, and Rizzo is still tops at 60.6%, comfortably ahead of second place Joey Votto (57.2%), who is comfortably ahead of third place Derrek Lee (50.2%). Mark Teixeira is third lowest at 31.5%. If Teixeira could take it to the bag himself, he did.

So there you go. Rizzo flips the ball to the pitcher covering first base not only more than any first baseman in the game right now, but any this century. I have no business telling Rizzo how to play first base, but it seems like there’s room for Rizzo to take fewer risks and run the ball to the bag himself. At least now we know we’re not imagining things. He does flip the ball an inordinate amount. Let's get to the rest of the mailbag.

Mike asks: Can Luis Gil win Rookie of the Year?

To take the question literally, yes, Gil is rookie-eligible. He entered 2024 with 33.1 big league innings, below the 50-inning rookie limit, and also with 34 days on the active MLB roster. The rookie limit is 45 days. Gil came into the season with one year and 73 days of service time, though most of that was spent on the injured list. Only active days count toward rookie eligibility.

So yes, Gil can win Rookie of the Year. Will he? Long way to go but he’s definitely in the conversation. Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu leads AL rookies with +1.4 WAR. Mason Miller is second at +1.1 WAR, then a whole bunch of guys are tied for third place with +0.9 WAR, including Gil, Evan Carter, and Colton Cowser. If the season ended today, I think Miller would win Rookie of the Year, possibly unanimously.

It has become very hard to win Rookie of the Year as a starting pitcher because they’re all on innings limits. The last starting pitcher to win the award was Michael Fulmer in 2016. Before him it was Jacob deGrom in 2014. Since 2000, as many relievers have won Rookie of the Year as starters (six of each). At some point the Yankees will scale back on Gil’s workload and that’ll hurt his Rookie of the Year case.

Ray asks: After Stanton’s double last night, it got me wondering — after Soto’s big hr on 4/19, which, I would imagine produced a huge shift in win probability, did Big G’s hit last night produce the second largest on the season? Have there been others? Can you rank the top 5?

Ray sent this question in after Giancarlo Stanton’s game-tying double last Friday against the Tigers (video). Juan Soto’s very cool home run against the Rays on April 19th (video) is not one of the top win probability movers this season because the Yankees were already leading at the time. Soto added a few insurance runs and insurance runs usually don’t move the win probability needle much.

Here are the Yankees’ five biggest hits by win probability added entering play Thursday (full list):

1. May 3rd: Giancarlo Stanton game-tying double vs. Tigers (+0.401 WPA) (video)
2. April 17th: Aaron Judge go-ahead single vs. Blue Jays (+0.392 WPA) (video)
3. April 14th: Anthony Volpe game-tying double vs. Guardians (+0.388 WPA (video)
4. March 31st: Juan Soto go-ahead single vs. Astros (+0.350 WPA) (video)
5. April 17th: Alex Verdugo double vs. Blue Jays (+0.331 WPA) (video)

Soto’s homer against the Rays is at +0.150 WPA and 33rd on the list. Verdugo’s double on April 17th did not drive in a run. It put runners on second and third with no outs in the ninth and the Yankees down a run (it set up No. 2 on that list). That non-RBI hit shows up on the WPA leaderboard because it’s May 10th and the Yankees haven’t had that many big hits yet. By the end of the season, it’ll be nowhere close to the top five.

On that note, Stanton’s game-tying double against the Tigers is the Yankees’ biggest hit by WPA this season, but it is only the 47th biggest hit in the entire league thus far. It’s behind a whole bunch of walk-offs and hits that scored multiple runs to either tie the game or give the team the lead. Give it time and the Yankees will pick up a few hits that register in the +0.500 WPA range and higher.

Kevin asks: The Yankees seem to be in a good position to potentially buy an extra year via the QO with Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo, and Clay Holmes. What do you feel is the probability they would extend the offer to each of those three and that they’d accept it?

The qualifying offer figures to be in the $21M range this offseason and the complicating factor is Juan Soto. Soto will of course get the QO, but the Yankees want to re-sign him, and may not risk having their payroll thrown out of whack by someone unexpectedly accepting the QO. I can definitely see it being a “we’re not doing anything until we know what’s happening with Soto” offseason, similar to Aaron Judge two years ago (and DJ LeMahieu three years ago). Let’s dig into the three QO candidates Kevin asked about.

Gleyber Torres: It is May 10th and Gleyber is hitting .215/.301/.264 (71 wRC+). If he doesn’t turn it around, the QO will be the least of everyone’s concerns. That production will force the Yankees to look elsewhere for a second baseman at the deadline. Who? I don’t know, but you’re trying to win a World Series, and if Torres is still performing like this come the middle of the summer, you have to think about making a change. It sucks, but it's a results-based business and he’s not providing results.

Now, if Torres bounces back to his 2023 form the rest of the season, then yes, he’ll be a QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s going to hit free agency at 27 and he’s got a good track record at an up-the-middle position. Those dudes tend to get paid. This is not a vacuum though, and the Yankees will prioritize Soto, and they have always kept Torres at arm’s length, haven’t they? I think that, unless Gleyber goes nuclear the rest of the season, the Yankees won’t make him the QO and will opt for the clean break. I don’t think they’ll risk him accepting it.

Alex Verdugo: Verdugo is the quintessential “make him the QO and hope he takes it” player. He’s been very good this year and he’s only 27, but do you really want to go long-term with a low power corner outfielder? I don’t. Giving good but not great players at non-premium positions 4-5 years is a recipe for regret (see: Benintendi, Andrew). Once the bat-to-ball skills and/or defense begin to erode, Verdugo goes from the dude we all love to the guy we can’t believe the Yankees are stuck with. It always seems to happen sooner than you expect too.

The QO would be perfect though. Yeah, $21M or so is a lot of money, but there’s no long-term risk. You get Verdugo for his age 28 season and you give yourself another year to evaluate the relationship. This is a player who wore out his welcome with the Dodgers and Red Sox, remember. Things are going great now, but let’s see where we all sit in a few months. Right now, on May 10th, I think the Yankees would make Verdugo the QO, even with the Soto situation. I don’t think he’d accept, though I’m not confident saying that.

Clay Holmes: Holmes will be an interesting case. He’s excellent and he doesn’t get enough credit for how well he handles a high-profile role in the demanding New York market. The guy runs into control problems every few weeks, a horde of fans say the Yankees need a Real Closer™, then Holmes gets himself on track and goes back to dominating. The dude is mentally tough. And, obviously, a very good pitcher. One of the five or so best relievers in the game, I’d say.

At the same time, the $21M-ish would be the highest single-season salary for a reliever in baseball history. Holmes will turn 32 next Spring Training, his elbow ligament already gave out once (Tommy John surgery in 2014), and he had shoulder capsule trouble in 2022. It wouldn’t be crazy to say thanks for the 3.5 great years Clay, but we’re going to let some other team pay for your decline years. Robert Stephenson’s track record as a top reliever is the last four months of last season, and he got three years and $33M. Holmes could probably get 3-4 years at $13M to $15M a pop this winter, no?

One of the advantages of being the Yankees is you can pay top dollar for an elite reliever while also turning non-roster guys into quality bullpen arms. You don’t have to be the Rays and rely only on the cheap dudes. You can pay Holmes an inflated one-year salary. The QO means no long-term risk and that’s particularly useful here given how unpredictable relievers (even great relievers) can be. I love Holmes, but I don’t know that I’m eager to give him 3-4 years this winter. Methinks the Yankees will pass and not make him the QO because they don’t usually do the “big salary on a short-term deal” thing.

Jeff asks: There’s always lots of discussion about the fastest players, but we seldom hear about the slowest. It seems like Giancarlo Stanton is not just avoiding injury but cannot accelerate at all. Isn’t there a statistic based on fastest speed, not just average? I’m guessing Big G is in last place.

That is exactly what Statcast’s sprint speed is. It is the player’s fastest one second window. The league average is 27.0 feet per second and the Yankees, as a team, are dead last with a 26.4 ft/s sprint speed. That certainly matches the eye test. Stanton’s average sprint speed is 24.8 ft/s, which is terrible, but it is not even the slowest on the Yankees. Or second slowest! The slowest Yankees by sprint speed:

1. Anthony Rizzo: 24.1 ft/s
2. Jose Trevino: 24.4 ft/s
3. Giancarlo Stanton: 24.8 ft/s

We’re talking degrees of painfully slow here, but yeah, Stanton is not even the slowest Yankee, at least according to sprint speed. Jon Berti (29.0 ft/s), Anthony Volpe (28.6 ft/s), and Oswaldo Cabrera (27.6 ft/s) are the only Yankees with even average sprint speed, though Juan Soto (26.8 ft/s) and Alex Verdugo (26.7 ft/s) are close. You can see the effect of the toe injury on Aaron Judge’s sprint speed:

• 2021: 27.7 ft/s

• 2022: 27.3 ft/s

• 2023 before injury: 27.5 ft/s

• 2023 after injury: 26.9 ft/s

• 2024: 26.5 ft/s

Before the injury Judge was humming along with a sprint speed in the same range as 2021-22 (and even further back than that). Then he returned and his sprint speed dipped what I’d call a noticeable amount. The difference between pre-toe injury Judge and post-toe injury Judge is the difference between Cabrera and Austin Wells, more or less. Anyway, yes, Stanton is extremely slow, but he’s not even the slowest Yankee.

Dan asks: Is it just me, or are the Yankees pitchers throwing more changeups now than ever before, and good ones too?

No! I was surprised by this, but the Yankees are throwing fewer changeups than in recent years. They are getting better results on the pitch though. As Robert Orr (subs. req’d) wrote a few weeks ago, league-wide offspeed pitch usage (changeups and splitters) is trending up. Teams are leaning on those pitches to suppress hard contact more and more with each passing year.

Stuff+, the pitch-modeling algorithm that grades pitches on velocity and movement and all that, goes back to 2020, though I’m going to ignore 2020 because it was a short season. Here are the Yankees and their changeup usage rates and results since 2021:

The Yankees are throwing fewer changeups this year, by a lot too, though their changeups have been more effective. Obviously personnel plays a role in the decline in changeup usage. Changeup merchant Wandy Peralta is gone. So are Domingo Germán, Mike King, and Jordan Montgomery. Caleb Ferguson, Carlos Rodón, and Marcus Stroman don’t throw changeups. There are others too.

Are the personnel changes – moving away from changeup pitchers and bringing in guys who barely throw a changeup, if they throw one at all – intentional, or is it just a coincidence and this is where the market led the Yankees? I think it’s the former. The shift away from changeup pitchers and toward non-changeup pitchers is too extreme for me to think it’s a coincidence. These things don’t happen by accident.

After the Yankees hired Matt Blake, they almost immediately began hoarding sinker and changeup pitchers. The guys who were already on the team started throwing more changeups too. The Yankees went from 9.8% changeups in 2019, their last year without Blake, to 13.1% with Blake in 2020. It was 13.2% in 2021, Blake’s first 162-game season. That’s a big shift in a relatively short period of time.

I think the changeup thing is an example of Blake and the Yankees being ahead of the curve. They recognized changeups were undervalued and underutilized a few years ago, so they targeted them and emphasized them, and got good results. Great results really, on the pitching side. The league noticed and caught on, and changeups are becoming more popular. Now that that’s happening, the Yankees are moving in another direction.

I need to dig into this but my theory is the Yankees are now targeting guys who are on the extremes of the horizontal movement spectrum. Pitchers with sweepers that break so much in one direction and sinkers that run back in the other direction, etc. Stroman fits the profile. Will Warren is the poster child for this. So is King and the Yankees traded him, but they did that to get Juan Soto. It's okay to deviate from your plan to get that guy. Even Michael Tonkin fits the profile to some extent. That’s my theory, anyway. For the Yankees, changeups are so last year.

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