May 3rd, 2024: Offense, Judge, Gil, Holmes, Wells, Schmidt, Delgado, Mailbag

Not sure about you, but I love Joe Girardi in the YES booth. He can be funny and he has good stories, two important broadcaster qualities for me, and he knows the modern game. With all due respect to David Cone, Paul O’Neill, and the other former players on the YES roster, they haven’t played in 20-something years. Girardi was a manager as recently as June 2022. He’s much more knowledgeable about today’s game than anyone else YES employs. If anything, he’s overprepared. I enjoyed Girardi on Cubs broadcasts last year, so I knew he’d be good, and I like him even more than I expected. He has great chemistry with Cone too. Girardi turns 60 later this year and it seems like he’s at a point in life where he wants to step back and have a lighter schedule, so I’m not sure how often he’ll be in the booth. I’ll enjoy him whenever he is. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. Splitting four games in Baltimore was more or less the bare minimum, so of course the Yankees dropped three of four. I guess we can give them credit for two of the losses being close, but does that make me feel better? No. No it does not. The Yankees are 10-11 in their last 21 games and the state of affairs can be described as “2023 but with Juan Soto.” Here are a few thoughts on the last few games. 

Six runs in four games

Weak showing by an offense that has been weak far too often this year. The Yankees scored six runs in four games against the Orioles: three solo home runs, a two-run homer, and a bloop single the outfielder then threw into the dugout. The incredible Soto went 6-for-14 (.429) in the four games. The rest of the Yankees went 14-for-106 (.132) with as many GIDPs as extra-base hits (five each).

The Yankees have already been shut out five times – they’ve scored no more than two runs 11 times in 33 games, so it happens once a series, basically  – which is almost as many times as they were shut out from 2018-19 combined (six). Monday’s 2-0 loss was the third 2-0 loss in a 10-game span. So many good pitching performances wasted! Here’s when the Yankees suffered their fifth shutout loss in recent years:

• 2024: Game 30

• 2023: Game 103

• 2022: Game 72

• 2021: Game 90

• 2020: Shut out only twice (60-game season)

• 2019: Shut out only twice (rocket ball season)

The team’s 114 wRC+ is sixth highest in baseball but the offense plays below that because they hit into so many damn double plays, which are not including in wRC+ (or AVG, OBP, SLG, etc.). The Yankees lead baseball with 38 GIDPs, three more than any other team. Aaron Judge has 10 GIDP on his own, three more than any other player. His career high is 16 GIDP back in 2021. He’s going to shatter that even if he reverts back to his career average GIDP rate the rest of the year.

(Judge is hitting into so many GIDPs that the Yankees should just lead him off. He's not driving anyone in. Might as well use him to set the table. He is still walking at a 16.1% clip.)

This is no longer just the slowest start to a season of Judge’s career. His .197/.331/.393 (111 wRC+) line is among the worst 33-game stretches of his career at any point in the season. Ignoring his 2016 partial rookie season, here are his worst numbers in a 33-game span:

• AVG: .175 from July 29th to Sept. 3rd, 2017 (.197 in 2024 is second worst)

• OBP: .299 from June 8th to July 15th, 2022 (.331 in 2024 is fourth worst)

• SLG: .351 from July 23rd to Aug. 20th, 2017 (.393 in 2024 is fourth worst)

Division rivals, particularly smart ones like the Orioles, will tell you a lot about your players, and the O’s spammed Judge with breaking balls down all series. All he saw the first three games and five innings was soft stuff down. In the late innings Thursday, they threw fastballs by him with the score lopsided. In close games though, it was soft stuff down. The O’s told us they don’t think Judge can hit that right now.

It is May 3rd and Judge has a lower wRC+ than Jose Trevino. That is not okay. Judge being diminished has gone on long enough now that you kinda have to have your head in the sand to think all he needs is a little more time. There is something seriously wrong here. The best case scenario is Judge is playing hurt, because if he’s completely healthy and doing this, woof. I almost hope he’s not 100% physically. At least then we’d have an explanation.

"If I was batting 1.000, that'd probably be the only time I'd be feeling good,” Judge told Gary Phillips after Thursday’s loss. “It's May. It's a new month. Time to get going."

Those two 15-run outbursts in Milwaukee were great, but 15 runs is always an outlier. That's not a number you can expect with any regularity. For the 2024 Yankees, scoring two or fewer runs is not an outlier. On average, it happens once every three games, and it happened three times in four games in Baltimore. No matter how good your pitching is (and the Yankees have very good pitching overall), you can not expect to win consistently when scoring a third run is this much of a challenge. Sad series for the bats.

Gil > Burnes

Last week I joked the Luis Gil vs. Corbin Burnes matchup was so lopsided (on paper) that the Yankees would probably win by 10 runs, and while they didn’t win by that much, they did win, and Gil outpitched the 2021 NL Cy Young winner. It was Gil’s best start as a big leaguer: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K. He faced 22 batters and the walk was to batter No. 21, when Gil looked like he was running out of gas.

“It doesn’t matter who you’re facing,” Gil told Erik Boland after the game. “Once you’re locked in and you’re concentrating on what you want to do, that’s really it. The level of concentration for me has to be high and that’s really what I focus on."

I was surprised to see Gil had only nine swings and misses among his 95 pitches, including only six on his fastball. He got a lot of weak grounders and routine fly balls, and the Orioles never had a runner get as far as second base against him. This is the pitch that most stood out to me. A nasty little changeup down and in to Ryan Mountcastle for the inning ending whiff:

I don’t think Gil could make that pitch in 2021 or 2022. He was a fastball/slider pitcher who threw a changeup now and then. Now the changeup is his go-to secondary – Gil has thrown more changeups (23.5%) than sliders (17.8%) this year – and he’ll throw it any count, and to righties and lefties. It’s not an elite swing and miss pitch (23.6% whiffs), but the 82.6 mph average exit velocity? Sheesh. Hitters can’t square it up (or haven't yet, I should say).

Gil’s last four starts have run the gamut. Seven walks in five innings in Toronto, one unearned run in 5.2 innings against the Rays, five runs in five innings in Milwaukee, and then 6.1 scoreless innings against the highest scoring offense in the American League. He’s a young pitcher, so inconsistency comes with the territory, but boy, when Gil’s good, he is really, really good.

“I knew this game would be special for him, because he was so serious on the bus,” Oswaldo Cabrera told Bryan Hoch about Gil. “When I stepped on the bus and I saw that guy just concentrating, in my mind, I was like, ‘Watch out.’”

Gerrit Cole still has not started throwing off a mound – “He had a pretty heavy throwing day (Tuesday) and it sounds like that went well,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce – so he’s not coming back until mid-to-late June, and maybe even later than that. Gil’s rotation spot is secure for the foreseeable future. There will be bumps in the road. They are inevitable. The upside though, it is significant. Incredible outing Wednesday.

A Holmes masterclass

Wednesday night was about as dominant as we’ve ever seen Clay Holmes. He faced six batters and got three ground balls (exit velocities: 86.0 mph, 70.0 mph, 89.0 mph) and three strikeouts, and he got a whiff on seven of 13 swings (54%). Holmes needed 23 pitches to get five outs and 20 of the 23 pitches were strikes. He was out there throwing grenades (GIF via Rob Friedman):

“Got my sinker in a good spot. The direction is good and I can trust that the sinker is going to do what it’s going to do,” Homes told Hoch. “If the sinker is there, typically the arm is out front and the slider comes with it. That’s been the case so far.”

The usage has been spotty of late though it was pretty obvious Holmes was going to pitch the ninth inning Monday had the Yankees tied the game or taken the lead. He came in and got the final out of the eighth (after Anthony Volpe’s error allowed an insurance run to cross the plate), but the Yankees didn’t score in the top of the ninth, so it was just two batters and eight pitches for Holmes that night.

After losing the first two games of the series, Boone showed some urgency and went for the kill Wednesday, and asked Holmes for the five-out save. It was 100% the right move. The O’s had the tying run at the plate with Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman due up. Even on May 1st, it was an important game and that spot called for your best reliever. Holmes came in and was nails.

“That’s the game right there. If the eighth inning got long and we’ve got to go with someone else in the ninth, so be it,” Boone told Hoch about using Holmes for a five-out save. “... Clay is off to a great start this year. Throwing the ball incredibly well. Tonight, I thought his stuff was really sharp. It had a little extra to it tonight, but also commanding it really well.”

After a slow start in the whiff department, Holmes is up to a 26.2% strikeout rate, and his ground ball rate is 71.4% with an 87.1 mph average exit velocity. Just one walk too. One walk in 15 innings and 61 batters faced (1.6%). He has hit two batters, so even lumping those in with the walks, that’s three free baserunners in 61 batters faced (4.9%). Holmes is in Terminator mode right now.

Holmes has allowed six homers in 169.2 innings as a Yankee (0.32 HR/9). It is almost impossible to elevate his sinker. You need three singles to score one run against this guy and that ain’t easy. Now he’s not walking anyone either. Will that last? Beats me, but it’s happening right now. The bullpen is shaky these days. In Holmes though, the Yankees have a top tier relief ace. He was great Wednesday and he’s been so, so good overall.

“Clay Holmes, that’s about as nasty as it gets,” O’s manager Brandon Hyde told Hoch after Wednesday’s game. “You’re throwing 97 mph bowling balls with a slider. It’s going to be tough to score against.”

Wells hitting his stride

Offense from the catcher position? Oh how I’ve missed it. Trevino is on a nice little heater (14-for-36 (.389) with two homers in his last 12 games) and Austin Wells is finally turning his impressive contact quality into results. Not coincidentally, his recent hot streak started when he began pulling the ball:

I mentioned this last week: Wells was wearing out left field. He was hitting everything to the big part of the park and Statcast’s expected stats do not take into account direction. xSLG and xwOBA and all that were overselling the contact Wells was making. Now he’s pulling the ball more and pulling the ball is the best way to generate power. His contact is more conducive to positive outcomes.

Wells started the season 3-for-35 (.086) and he is now 7-for-19 (.368) with two doubles and a homer in his last six games. He had an extra-base hit in three straight starts at one point. I’m most impressed with the plate discipline. I figured Wells would walk a bunch, but not this much, and you can’t help but love the strikeout rate:

• Strikeout rate: 13.2% (MLB average: 22.5%)

• Walk rate: 17.6% (MLB average: 8.7%)

• Swinging strike rate: 10.4% (MLB average: 10.9%)

• Chase rate: 21.8% (MLB average: 27.8%)

• SEAGER: 16.3 (what’s this?)

SEAGER puts Wells in the same range as, well, Corey Seager (16.4), the guy the swing decision metric was designed and named after. Wells' swing decisions have been quite good and he’s making quality contact when he does swing. I don’t buy him as a BB > K hitter long-term (very few players are true talent BB > K) but the plate discipline and contact quality are strong. He has the foundation of a very good hitter.

Trevino has faced more righties (31 PA) than lefties (29 PA), though his production has come mostly against southpaws (.320 wOBA vs. .250 wOBA). Wells has eight plate appearances against lefties and that’s fine. Let them platoon. I’m just glad Wells is starting to get results and we’re no longer sitting here saying “he’s just unlucky” while watching him hit fly ball after fly ball to left field.

(Wells is entering his last few days as a prospect, by the way. He’s at 124 big league at-bats and the rookie limit is 130, so figure he’ll graduate by the end of the weekend. Wells exceeded the service time limit a few weeks ago, but most folks ignore service time for prospect-eligibility and stick with the at-bat and innings limit. Wells will officially graduate out of prospect status soon.)

Miscellany

With Alex Verdugo on the paternity list, the Yankees put Judge in left field for the first time in his career rather than keep him in center and put Trent Grisham (or Taylor Trammell) in left. It was Judge’s first time playing left field as a big leaguer (he did play left a few times in the minors and in Spring Training) and he handled it well. The only really tough ball hit his way was James McCann’s double Tuesday (James McCann? really?). It went over Judge’s head and landed on the warning track in front of Walltimore (video). After last year, I am totally fine with Judge not crashing into the wall to attempt the catch. All in all, I’d say they were three pretty uneventful games for Judge in left field … Carlos Narváez spent a few days on the roster as Verdugo’s replacement. Narváez, Everson Pereira, and Agustin Ramirez are the only healthy 40-man roster position players in the minors. The Yankees didn’t need another outfielder and Ramirez is just getting settled in at Double-A. Narváez was the most sensible call up even as a third catcher because he can also play first base. He didn’t get into a game anyway, so it didn’t really matter. At least Narváez got himself three days of big league pay and service time … One bad pitch for Clarke Schmidt on Monday (Gunnar Henderson’s leadoff homer). He pitched well against a tough lineup that was loaded with quality lefty bats. Schmidt allowed 33 runs in 40 innings in his first nine starts last year. In 29 starts since, he has a 3.90 ERA (4.29 FIP) in 150 innings. That’s more or less league average production over close to a full season’s worth of starts. Also, here’s a fun one (2024 stats):

• Clarke Schmidt: 3.19 ERA in six starts (31 IP and 130 batters faced)

• Luis Gil: 3.19 ERA in six starts (31 IP and 130 batters faced)

Freaky. Anyway, I wish Schmidt would pitch deeper into games, but he’s become pretty reliable, even if he is a bit frustrating because it feels like there is another level in there that he hasn’t gotten to yet.  … Ian Hamilton is unwell: 10 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 8 BB, 5 K, 3 HBP in his last nine appearances. Holmes had to bail him out Wednesday. Hamilton was unavailable a few days last week because of what the Yankees called general soreness. Who knows how long that’s been going on and effecting his performance. Hopefully Hamilton is just in a tough stretch and this isn’t the clock striking midnight on an out-of-nowhere reliever … And finally, it was great to see Ken Singleton on the broadcast Wednesday. If you missed it, he wasn’t in the booth, he was in the stands and he spent a few minutes with Meredith Marakovits. I haven’t seen the full video anywhere but here’s a snippet. I’m glad Kenny is enjoying retirement but I miss him dearly in the broadcast booth. One of the best to ever do it.

Up next

The road trip is over and three games/days remain in this 17 games in 17 days stretch. Here’s what’s on deck this weekend:

• Friday vs. Tigers: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Reese Olson (7pm ET)

• Saturday vs. Tigers: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Casey Mize (1pm ET)

• Sunday vs. Tigers: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (1:30pm ET)

Skubal might be the best pitcher in baseball right now. He’s at least in the conversation. Since returning from his flexor surgery last July, he’s thrown 117 innings with a 2.46 ERA (2.06 FIP) and stellar strikeout (31.9%), walk (4.5%), and swinging strike (14.8%) rates. This season he also has an 85.8 mph average exit velocity. Skubal is about as good as there is in the game at the moment.

Between Skubal and Sunday being the final day of this 17 games in 17 days stretch – 17 games in 17 days during which basically none of the regulars had a day off – I fear what the at-bats will look like that afternoon. The guys are tired and there could be some serious last day of school vibes with lots of “let’s get this over with” swings early in the count. Now watch them score nine against Skubal.

The Tigers are 18-13 with a few bright spots (Skubal, Jason Foley, Riley Greene), though they are AL Central good more than actually good. They’re 12-12 since their 6-1 start – to be fair, the Yankees are 14-12 since their 6-1 start – and there are a lot of underperformers in the lineup. Win two of three this weekend and the Yankees will have went 9-8 during the 17 games in 17 days.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. The JT Brubaker trade is complete. Earlier this week the Yankees sent infielder Keiner Delgado, my No. 20 prospect, to the Pirates as the player to be named later. The Yankees have more Low-A caliber infield prospects than Low-A infield spots, and the fact Delgado started the season back in Extended Spring Training while Roderick Arias, George Lombard Jr., and Enmanuel Tejeda were assigned to Low-A tells you Delgado was at the bottom of the internal rankings. I had a feeling the PTBNL would be somewhat notable considering the Pirates sent Brubaker and international bonus money to the Yankees, and Delgado qualifies as “somewhat notable.” Brubaker, for what it’s worth, is said to be doing well with his Tommy John surgery rehab. “He’s been on the mound for a while now. So I would think he’s on track to be an option for us at some point in the summer,” Aaron Boone told Gary Phillips earlier this week … The Guardians announced CC Sabathia will be inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame on Aug. 3rd. He’ll appear on the National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this winter. It’s getting to be time to retire No. 52 or at least give Sabathia a plaque in Monument Park, no? Ace of the most recent championship team, top 10 in franchise history in everything that matters (wins, strikeouts, etc.), a beloved and popular player, so on and so forth. I know my bar for number retirement is lower than most, but Sabathia clears for me. I’d say he deserves at least a plaque … And finally, I didn’t see this in time to get into Monday’s post: MLB will fix the uniforms. Jeff Passan reports the most glaring issues (small lettering, sweat stains, see-through pants, etc.) will be addressed no later than next Opening Day. MLB and the MLBPA put all the blame on Nike for the design, not Fanatics for the manufacturing. In a crazy coincidence, MLB owns a stake in Fanatics and the MLBPA receives tens of millions from Fanatics for licensing each year. I don’t really care whose fault it is. Just fix the uniforms. It’s amateur hour out there.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mike asks: I see Michael King is having a spotty time as a starter in San Diego. What kind of trade package would it take for the Yankees and King to reunite as a high-leverage bullpen arm again?  

King was a really good Yankee and I hope he gets straightened out, but yeah, the Yankees did a great job selling high on him. Nine great starts (seven on a normal starter’s schedule) and they were able to use him as the centerpiece to get JUAN SOTO. Incredible. Lots of people went overboard with the “King is their second best starter!” stuff over the winter. I wrote a few times that we still had no idea whether he could be an effective starter over 162 games, and not to get too caught up in nine starts.

Anyway, King has a 5.00 ERA (6.30 FIP) with a good 24.7% strikeout rate in 36 innings, but also by far the highest walk rate of his career (13.0%) and an MLB leading 10 home runs allowed. He’s made six starts (and one relief appearance when the Padres opened their season in South Korea) and talk about an up and down performance in those six starts:

• March 31st: 7 BB in 4 IP

• April 6th: 7 shutout innings

• April 12th: 4 HR in 5 IP

• April 17th: Took no-hitter into the seventh

• April 23rd: 6 R in 3.2 IP (Coors Field)

• April 28th: 6 R and 3 HR in 5.1 IP

We remember King as a sinker/sweeper guy who also threw the occasional four-seamer and changeup. The Padres have him throwing more four-seamers, more changeups, and fewer sinkers and sweepers. What? Is it as simple as the Yankees being a smarter team than San Diego? As bad as King has been this year, I’d bet on the Yankees getting more out of him than the Padres.

The Padres have lost five of their last seven games and are 16-18 this season. Watch them and they look like half a team. It’s a stars and scrubs roster. Very top heavy with little depth. There are three Wild Card spots now, so I wouldn’t rule them out of the postseason race, but it’s not an overly impressive team. Would they actually sell if they fall out of the race? Maybe, though they might change GMs first.

San Diego might not even have to truly sell to move King. You might be able to convince them to give you King and his 1.5 years of team control for a player(s) who can help right away and stick around longer than King. For example, would you do 3.5 years of Clarke Schmidt for 1.5 years of King? The Yankees probably say no to that right now, right? But that’s the kinda offer that might get San Diego’s attention.

It’s difficult to pin down King’s trade value because he has not pitched well as a starter this year, but there is also ample evidence he can be a great reliever. One of the best relievers in the sport, really. A great reliever is more valuable than an iffy starter. Some recent trades involving 1.5 years of a reliever that could work as framework for a King trade:

• Josh Hader: Traded for a rental reliever (LHP Taylor Rogers), two team top 10 prospects (LHP Robert Gasser and OF Esteury Ruiz), and a salary offset (RHP Dinelson Lamet)

• Paul Sewald: Traded for an MLB role player (UTIL Josh Rojas), a team top 10 prospect (IF Ryan Bliss), and a team top 20 prospect (OF Dominic Canzone)

• Kendall Graveman: Traded for a team top 10 prospect (C Korey Lee)

Graveman was in part a salary dump, and as good as we’ve seen King be as a reliever, he’s not Hader, or at least not what Hader was before this season. Sewald was terrific with the Mariners (2.88 ERA and 3.34 FIP with 35.0% strikeouts), so I guess that’s the best comp? Sewald is several years older than King and more expensive, plus King might be able to start, so it’s not a perfect match, but it’s in the ballpark.

Assuming the Padres prioritize MLB-ready or near-MLB-ready pieces (they kinda have to with their roster), does the Sewald-esque trade package look like:

• MLB role player: Oswaldo Cabrera

• Team top 10 prospect: Will Warren

• Team top 20 prospect: Trystan Vrieling (who is breaking out)

Maybe you can talk the Padres down from Cabrera to Everson Pereira and/or Warren to Clayton Beeter, but that does fit the Sewald mold and San Diego’s needs. They get two players they could plug into their big league roster immediately and a third player who could be a big league option later this year for a Padres team that promotes prospects very aggressively.

In the unlikely event the Yankees bring King back, I would be tempted to continue starting him because I do think the ingredients are there, and because I think the Yankees are more likely to get the best out of him than the Padres. The Yankees sure could use King in the bullpen though (which team couldn’t?). We’ll have to circle back once we get closer to the trade deadline in a few weeks. A King reunion hadn’t crossed my mind until this question but I’m intrigued.

Paul asks: 1 month in, who on the Yankees is likely to be an all star (I'll spot you Soto)?

Juan Soto is a given. Clay Holmes too, right? Still got a 0.00 ERA (his 15 innings are the most without an earned run) and he’s 10-for-11 in save chances with the one blown save coming in extra innings in Arizona. Holmes didn’t allow a ball out of the infield but the automatic runner scored. I was prepared to say Carlos Rodón might have an All-Star case because a 2.48 ERA gets you noticed, but then he got bombed Thursday. Now he has a 3.68 ERA.

Anthony Volpe isn’t gonna make the All-Star Game unless someone gets hurt. Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. are slam dunks, and Corey Seager will win the fan voting because the All-Star Game is in Texas. Seager has had a slow start to the season (77 wRC+), but that won’t matter in the voting. On merit, yes, Volpe belongs as the third shortstop behind Henderson and Witt. He’s ahead of Jeremy Peña for me. (If they even take three shortstops. They usually do, but not always.)

The outfield is stacked. As good as Alex Verdugo has been, he is 11th in wRC+ and 12th in WAR among AL outfielders. Adolis García, Steven Kwan, and Kyle Tucker (and Soto) have all clearly been better, and Riley Greene, Tyler O’Neill, and Daulton Varsho are right there too. Mike Trout’s injury means he won’t be the token Angel, potentially opening an outfield spot, but there are a lot of good outfielders there.

Right now, on May 3rd, I would say Soto, Holmes, and Volpe are the Yankees’ deserving All-Stars, but only Soto and Holmes would make it. There’s too much quality competition for Verdugo to make it (unless he gets voted in by the fans). The voting (both fan voting and player voting) is still weeks away, so there’s plenty of time for Aaron Judge and others to make an All-Star charge. They have to start making that charge soon though, right?

Adam asks: Would you consider Clayton Beeter to be one of the best 13 pitchers currently in the Yankees organization? If so, do you think he would provide more value to the Yankees contention hopes to be called up to the bullpen immediately or stay stretched out as a starter in Triple A?

Adam sent this question in on April 17th, which was before Nick Burdi got hurt (remember Nick Burdi?) and before Michael Tonkin came into our lives. Beeter struck out nine in 5.2 scoreless innings Wednesday (video) and his Triple-A numbers are great: 2.73 ERA (2.33 FIP) with 36.5% strikeouts and 13.5% walks in the admittedly small sample of 23 innings. Also a 53.2% ground ball rate. Beeter’s been dominant in his 23 Triple-A innings.

I do think Beeter is better than Tonkin, so in that sense, yes he should be in the big leagues. I also think Will Warren is better than Beeter, so Beeter isn’t technically one of the 13 best pitchers in the organization. It’s more like Warren is No. 13, Beeter is No. 14, and Tonkin is No. 15. I know he got pushed into an important spot in Milwaukee, but Tonkin is in a low leverage role. It’s okay to have a fungible journeyman as the last guy in the bullpen. Tonkin has not pitch for a week and then give you 2-3 innings at a clip. It's fine.

Ian Hamilton is struggling and the Yankees really could use a strikeout reliever, so I think it’s worth putting Beeter in the bullpen and seeing whether he can help. The Yankees would have to make sure to use, of course. They couldn't save him for blowouts because they rarely play blowouts. The Yankees neither score enough runs nor allow enough runs to play blowouts. Even with Beeter in the bullpen, the Yankees would still have Warren and Cody Poteet (Poteet’s been really good in Triple-A) stretched out as rotation depth in Scranton.

To answer the question, no, I don’t think Beeter is one of the 13 best pitchers in the organization because I have him behind Warren. I do think it makes sense to bring him up as a reliever though. The Yankees need a reliever who can miss bats and they would still have Poteet and Warren as rotation depth. We’re talking about replacing Tonkin here. The bar for that roster spot is pretty low.

Mark asks: Two significant changes from the last many frustrating years: 1) Using the “A” lineup, and 2) not resting regulars regularly whether they need it or not. What do you think led to these welcome changes? Was it the so-called audit?

I’ve gotten a few questions these last few weeks about using the “A” lineup so much. It definitely has nothing to do with the audit (“audit”). The Yankees partnered with Zelus Analytics, an independent firm that runs data analysis and crunches numbers for sports teams. The Yankees will spend this year observing how Zelus does business, compare it to their own operation, and adjust how they work. The Yankees are not letting Zelus look at anything they’re doing. They’ll observe how Zelus works, and that’s it. Hal Steinbrenner really oversold the audit when he first mentioned it was a possibility last year.

As for playing the “A” lineup so often, I think it is nothing more than the Yankees being desperate to start the season well after going 82-80 a year ago. Playing your best players more often gives you the best chance to win. They embraced the load management approach, it didn't really work, and now they’re going in the other direction. I don’t think there was some big light bulb moment when they realized this is the way they should have done things all along. I think they’re just desperate to win games (and their bench stinks), so they’re playing their regulars as much as possible. The Yankees are 20-11, so it seems to be working. What happens when the workload piles up on an older team later this season? We’re gonna find out.

Jonas asks: Mike, is it my imagination or is Rizzo constantly tossing throws to the pitcher after hitters ground out to him when he could just run to the bag himself? I know he is slow, but it seems like you are putting extra wear on the pitcher and making it a much closer play when he could just beat the runner to the bag.

I don’t think it’s your imagination. I feel like Anthony Rizzo has done this since the day he got to the Yankees (I assume he did it throughout his time with the Cubs too). Mark Teixeira was the complete opposite. Teixeira took everything to the bag himself when he could, even when he had to hustle. There are balls Rizzo can take to the bag and thus reduce the risk of an error, but he flips it to the pitcher anyway. Two weekends ago Luke Weaver dropped a feed from Rizzo (video) and, clearly, Rizzo could have taken this to the bag himself:

In Rizzo’s defense, it can be difficult at times to tell exactly how far away the first baseman is from the base on television, particularly when he’s behind the bag. The camera angles can play tricks on you. But yeah, Rizzo does not take the ball to the bag himself as often as he could (or should), and that opens up the possibility of mistakes, nevermind taxing the pitcher by making him hustle to the bag.

Rob asks: Does the Montgomery-for-Bader trade beat the Mike Lowell trade for worst Yankee trade of all time? The Yanks didn't think Gumby was a playoff caliber starter and wanted to go all-in on run prevention with an excellent center fielder. Well, Gumby turned in some fine playoff starts and Bader couldn't hit.

I’m not sure the Jordan Montgomery/Harrison Bader trade is even the worst trade the Yankees made at the 2022 deadline. Isn’t the Frankie Montas/Lou Trivino trade worse? The Yankees got negative production from Montas and Trivino was fine for a handful of innings. Bader at least turned in a great postseason performance. The guy did hit .333/.429/.833 (253 wRC+) that October. The Yankees don't go to the ALCS without him. What did Montas (and Trivino) do?

The Lowell trade is Brian Cashman’s worst – it’s not the worst trade in Yankees history, that’s probably the Fred McGriff trade – because the Yankees got nothing out of that deal. The three pitchers they received (Mark Johnson, Todd Noel, Ed Yarnall) threw 20 innings with a 5.40 ERA with the Yankees (all by Yarnall). To get that, Cashman gave up six years of Lowell, who put up +15.1 WAR and went to three All-Star Games during those six years, and also helped the Marlins beat the Yankees in the 2003 World Series. Montgomery for Bader was bad. It was not Lowell bad. I don’t think it’s particularly close either.

Sal asks: Do the Astros now suck?

You are what your record says you are, and the Astros entered play Thursday with a 10-20 record, so yes, they suck now. Now, to be fair to them, they still have a top five offense with a 116 wRC+. They’ve been done in by their pitching and they’ve had an entire five-man rotation on the injured list most of the year. Luis Garcia (elbow), Cristian Javier (neck), Lance McCullers Jr. (elbow), and José Urquidy (elbow) are still out, and Framber Valdez (elbow) and Justin Verlander (shoulder) each missed several weeks too.

At the same time, their depth has been unimpressive. Hunter Brown was a top pitching prospect who was great late in 2022, good in the first half of 2023, not so good in the second half of 2023, and has been downright awful in 2024. He’s going backwards. Why is Josh Hader pitching down in the zone? Who are some of these middle relievers? Evidence is mounting that the Astros aren’t as good at identifying and/or maximizing pitchers as they once were. 

Jeff Bagwell was promoted to senior advisor last April and he supposedly has owner Jim Crane’s ear, and he’s openly anti-analytics. I can’t help but wonder if there’s a connection between that and the sudden pitching deficiencies. Even with Alex Bregman being bad and José Abreu looking so cooked that he agreed to go to the minors, Houston’s offense has been great. The pitching is just so, so bad. Here is the bottom of the team ERA leaderboard entering play Thursday:

30. Rockies: 6.00 ERA
29. White Sox: 5.15 ERA
28. Angels: 4.98 ERA
27. Astros: 4.89 ERA
26. Marlins: 4.89 ERA

The Astros are in the same range as the Angels, Marlins, and White Sox (combined 25-69, or a 119-loss pace across 162-games) and clearly better than only the Rockies. How in the world are the Astros in the same conversation with the Rockies at anything?

The Astros have started slowly in recent years before getting back on track, but never this slowly – the 10-20 start is their worst since they started 10-20 in 2014, one of their tanking years – and it’s more difficult to believe in this pitching staff than in the past. Do the Astros suck? Yes, they suck right now. I have a hard time completely discounting them, though I think they’re likely to rebound to “mediocre” than “good.” There are definitely cracks in the foundation. (The Astros will be in the Bronx for three games starting Tuesday.)

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)