April 23rd, 2024: Offense, Schmidt, Wells, Boone, Injuries

I had a busy weekend and didn’t have too much time to write, and it’s probably for the best. The Yankees, they stink right now. The offense does at least. Juan Soto rules, otherwise this is the 2023 offense with a fresh coat of paint. Guys need to start hitting, and if they don’t, the Yankees aren’t going to win enough games to get to the postseason. It’s as simple as that. Fortunately the Yankees still have 139 games to figure it out. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. If you had told me at the start of Spring Training that, 23 games into the season, Gerrit Cole will have made zero starts because of an elbow injury and Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Gleyber Torres would hit a combined .198/.304/.280 (79 wRC+), I would have guessed the Yankees were under .500. Maybe 9-14? Yeah, I would’ve guessed 9-14, instead here they sit at 15-8. The offense and the bullpen are major problems right now, but all things considered, sign me up for 15-8. Now a few thoughts on the last few games.

Shades of 2023

Juan Soto hit a very cool home run Friday (video) and a double Saturday, and the rest of the Yankees have zero extra-base hits on the homestand. The offense has had three good innings (ninth inning the last game in Toronto, fifth inning the first game against the Rays, fifth inning the last game against the Rays) in the last seven games. The Yankees have been shut out four times in the first 23 games for the first time since 1984. Last year the fourth shutout came in the 89th game.

“Just scuffling a little bit,” Aaron Boone told Mark Sanchez about the offense after Monday’s loss. “Still getting a few guys going. We’ve got to mount more than that, obviously. And that’s taking nothing away from Sears. I thought he threw the ball well.”

Entering play Monday, the Yankees ranked 18th among the 30 teams with 22 home runs, 19th with a .373 SLG, and 12th with a 7.6% barrel rate. They certainly didn’t improve those numbers in the series opener with the Athletics. They didn’t even get a runner to third base! Here are the fewest home runs the Yankees have hit in their first 23 games this century:

1. 2014: 19 HR
2. 2024: 22 HR
3. 2016: 23 HR
4. 2008: 24 HR

2008, 2014, and 2016 were not good years! Ballpark Pal found the ball is not carrying as much as last year, so your mind is not playing tricks on you. Hard-hit fly balls that look gone off the bat are dying at the warning track. That surely has contributed to the Yankees’ lack of power through 23 games, but every team has to deal with the dead ball, so let’s not focus on this.

The lack of home run power is, obviously, tied directly to Judge’s ongoing slump. Gleyber and Rizzo too, but Judge is the game’s top power hitter, and he has three home runs in 104 plate appearances. His at-bats are getting progressively worse too. Saturday he went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts and whiffed with 10 of his 11 swings. It was as bad as he’s ever looked. I'm not in panic mode yet, but this slump is beginning to grow worrisome.

As for Torres, did you know he’s in the middle of a 44-game homer drought dating back to last Sept. 7th? His strikeout rate (26.5% vs. 14.6%) is way up from last year and his hard-hit rate (32.8% vs. 40.3%) is way down. Here are the most plate appearances without a home run this season:

1. Luis Arraez: 108 PA
2. Spencer Torkelson:  105 PA
3. Gleyber Torres: 98 PA
4. Andrés Giménez: 95 PA
5. Wyatt Langford: 93 PA 

Arraez is not a power hitter, Giménez is probably the best defensive second basemen in the game, and Langford was in college at this time last year. Torkelson and Torres are the two players on that list where you say “them not hitting for power is a problem,” and it is a problem. Gleyber’s been terrible and he is so clearly pressing, both at the plate and in the field. It looks like Judge is starting to press too.

Rizzo? His contact quality is slowly improving but is still bad overall, and his one home run was barely fair in Yankee Stadium’s right field (video), meaning it would have sailed foul at most other ballparks. I’m more worried about Rizzo than I am Judge and Torres given his age and injury history. No matter who you worry about most, the fact is these three are not hitting home runs (or hitting in general), and it is hurting the offense.

Soto has been incredible and Alex Verdugo has performed well lately. In addition to the new guys, the plan called for the players already on the roster to perform better and stay healthier than they did a year ago, and it has not happened. Other than Giancarlo Stanton and Oswaldo Cabrera and Anthony Volpe (do not look up his numbers since the four-hit game in Arizona), they’re all significantly worse than last year.

That the Yankees are 15-8 with this offense (and this bullpen) is a minor miracle, but that doesn’t mean we can hand-wave away these very clear problems. It is really hard to win games when you don’t hit the ball out of the ballpark. Or when you don’t hit singles! The Yankees can’t even do that right now. But they really need the slug to return. They’ve hit three home runs in the last seven games. Three.

Schmidt hits 100

As in 100 pitches, not 100 mph. Clarke Schmidt threw 102 pitches Friday night, the first time he's eclipsed 100 pitches as a big leaguer. He threw 99 pitches twice last year and 97 pitches a few other times, but 100 pitches? Schmidt had never done it in pinstripes. The only other time he did it in pro ball was back in 2019, when he threw 105 pitches for Low-A Tampa on Aug. 5th.

“I loved every bit of that,” Schmidt told Sanchez about throwing 102 pitches. “I love it. I want to be out there as long as I possibly can. I know there’s facets of my game that I’m continuing to work on. I think last year was lefties. This year it’s continuing to go deeper in games.”

Needing 102 pitches to navigate 5.1 innings against a meh offense is nothing to celebrate, but Schmidt has been mostly solid this season, and he’s gotten better each time out. You can live with a No. 4-5 starter who puts up a 3.15 ERA (3.58 FIP) with almost exactly league average peripherals across the board. The only real exception is his strikeout rate, which sits at a tidy 26.7%. That’ll work.

One thing I would like Schmidt to do is pitch a little more to his armside, meaning in on righties and away from lefties. That’s easier said than done given his arsenal of right-to-left pitches (cutter, sweeper, etc.), but he is predictable with his location. Righties can comfortably look away and lefties have to be ready for something inside. Here are his pitch locations (catcher’s view):

It may not look like it, but those numbers add up to 100%, and about 33% of Schmidt’s pitches are inside to righties and away from lefties. Can he get that to 40%? The sinker is the pitch to do it with. A few more pitches on that side of the plate just to make hitters respect it, and to stop them from sitting on the left side of the plate so much. Schmidt can be predictable, location-wise.

So far, so good for Schmidt though. The cutter keeps getting better – it is his most used pitch, as it was in the second half last year – and he’s getting more swings and misses. Throwing 100 pitches in a game for the first time is nice, though I hope he can start doing it over 6-7 innings rather than 5.1. By no means has Schmidt been great. He has been steady and fairly reliable though. Nice start to 2024 for him.

Wells and the catcher situation

Jose Trevino has started three of the last four games – twice against lefties and once against a righty. The start against a righty was Aaron Civale on Sunday. Boone told Gary Phillips it was because “Civale’s a little bit of reverse (split),” though the numbers do not back that up (unless strikeout rate is the deciding factor):

2023-24 Civale vs. RHB: .227/.287/.346 (.281 wOBA) with 22.0 K% and 6.8 BB%
2023-24 Civale vs. LHB: .244/.300/.389 (.302 wOBA) with 25.5 K% and 6.7 BB%

Civale with Rays vs. RHB: .248/.299/.412 (.311 wOBA) with 26.8 K% and 6.1 BB%
Civale with Rays vs. LHB: .277/.336/.431 (.336 wOBA) with 30.0 K% and 6.7 BB%

Stanton hit cleanup and Rizzo hit fifth against Civale, supporting the reverse split theory (it’s the only time Stanton has hit cleanup against a righty this year), plus the Yankees don’t base these decisions on simple platoon splits. Teams these days model bat paths against the pitcher’s arsenal, etc.

I don’t care so much about the why. I just think it’s notable that, with a righty on the mound, Trevino was behind the plate, and that has been a rarity. Austin Wells has gotten the lion’s share of the starts against the righties, but not Sunday. Of course, Trevino has hit well the last week or so and has a .250/.330/.325 (101 wRC+) line. Wells is down at .091/.256/.091 (23 wRC+), though his plate discipline numbers (16.4% strikeouts, 18.6% walks, 9.2% swinging strikes, 26.4% chases) are strong.

Wells has a really unusual contact quality profile. His 85.2 mph average exit velocity and 28.6% hard-hit rate are objectively terrible, but he also has a 14.3% barrel rate, which is nearly double the 7.4% league average. So what does that mean? That means there’s no middle ground. Wells either crushes the ball on a line (i.e. a barrel), or he hits a lazy fly ball or a weak grounder, resulting in an easy out.

To put numbers on it, Wells has hit seven ground balls this year. Their exit velocities, listed chronologically: 55.2 mph, 86.1 mph, 51.0 mph, 71.5 mph, 80.6 mph, 71.2 mph, 74.7 mph. The MLB average on grounders is 85.9 mph. Wells has one grounder that hard. But of course, we’re talking about a hitter with a 22.2% ground ball rate, so this is a small issue. More importantly, look at his fly balls and line drives:

Obvious statement is obvious: Wells needs to start pulling the ball. He’s hitting everything to the big part of the field. This is where estimators like xSLG (.492 for Wells) and xwOBA (.387) fail. They don’t factor in direction. Only exit velocity and launch angle (and sprint speed for certain balls in play). Statcast says Wells is underperforming his contact quality. I’m not sure he really is given that spray chart.

Why hasn’t Wells pulled the ball? Perhaps we’ve all been duped and he doesn’t have the bat speed to pull even average velocity. He has a 28.6% pull rate this year and it was 35.1% in his month as a big leaguer last year. In the minors, Wells had a 39.6% pull rate in 2023. He’s never really pulled the ball all that much at Double-A and above. That doesn’t mean he can’t do it. Only that he hasn’t.

I was surprised to see Wells has only 43 plate appearances this season. Trevino has 45 and the regular position players are all up around 100 plate appearances now. He’s a rookie catcher and those guys have the steepest learning curve of all. Even Adley Rutschman hit .176/.256/.257 (51 wRC+) in his first 20 games. The Yankees should be patient with Wells, though I do wonder if starting Trevino against a righty on Sunday means they are giving priority to the player more likely to help them win right now.

“I want them to both play. A ton of confidence in both guys,” Boone told Phillips about his catchers. “... I feel like that rapport and relationships are there. Don’t feel any trepidation with pairing two of our guys up (pitcher and catcher).”

Burdi hurt, LeMahieu delayed

History says it was only a matter of time until Nick Burdi got hurt, and the injury came Friday. The good news is it’s not his arm. He has right hip inflammation and, as Boone tells it, it’s minor. The bad news is Burdi was the only reliever in the bullpen with an above average strikeout rate at the time of the injury. A bullpen short on swing-and-miss lost its best swing-and-miss artist.

“I think he felt it on the last pitch of his last outing (last Tuesday),” Boone said. “It’s fairly minor. It’s hip inflammation. One of the big things with Nick is, with his injury history, the biggest thing is they don’t want him compensating and it bleeding into being an arm issue. It’s a fairly minor deal. He started some medicine. Hopefully down only a handful of days, and then ramp him back up.”

Cody Morris, who came over in the Estevan Florial trade, took Burdi’s roster spot, and he hasn’t pitched yet because Boone doesn’t trust him and every game they play is tight. If the offense ever has a big game and allows the pitchers to breathe a little bit, Morris can soak up some garbage time innings. Until then, the high leverage guys have to work basically every night. Losing Burdi is a sneaky big blow.

In other injury news, DJ LeMahieu did not start his rehab assignment as expected Friday. The latest scans showed his foot is “healing, but not quite (as much as) they were hoping for,” he told Pete Caldera. He said he hopes to start a rehab assignment this week, though LeMahieu has said he feels ready to play basically since the day he got hurt. The doctors keep saying something else. He’ll play when he plays.

Jon Berti told Meredith Marakovits he’s started baseball activities and hopes to begin a rehab assignment later this week. Until Berti or LeMahieu returns, the Yankees are apparently going to roll with Jahmai Jones as their backup second and third baseman, and Oswaldo Cabrera as their backup first baseman and shortstop. Carrying Trent Grisham and Taylor Trammell doesn’t make sense, but they’re doing it. I wish the Yankees had a better bench so they at least had the option of sitting Rizzo and Torres, but they don’t.

Miscellany

Boone’s ejection Monday was completely ridiculous, so much so that MLB should discipline home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt. To recap: Boone argued a check swing call, Wendelstedt warned him he’d eject him if he said anything else (standard practice), and then a fan yelled at Wendelstedt and Boone got ejected. The YES mics caught Wendelstedt saying “I don’t care who said it, you’re gone.” Here’s the video (this angle seems to show Wendelstedt reacting to the fan in the blue shirt). That can’t happen, though I am thankful we got this screen grab:

Boone will be fined because every ejection comes with a fine, and Wendelstedt will skate, because the umpire always skates. Should the ump be disciplined because he ejected a manager over something a fan said? Yes. Is this incredibly funny? Also yes … Six days after walking seven Blue Jays, Luis Gil turned in the best start of his MLB career Sunday: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K. That’s a career high in strikeouts, and two of the walks were to the final two batters he faced. José Caballero did goad Gil into a run-scoring balk, and that’s a young pitcher thing he’ll have to learn to control. Caballero rattled Gil, straight up. When Gil’s around the plate, he can dominate. The Rays found that out Sunday … Carlos Rodón checked two boxes Monday. It was his first scoreless start as a Yankee, and also the first time he went seven innings as a Yankee. He struck out only four batters against the team with the highest strikeout rate in baseball, but I’m not going to complain about seven scoreless against any opponent … Saturday’s and Monday’s losses are firmly on the offense, but:

• Saturday: Caleb Ferguson allowed an RBI double in an 0-2 count and an RBI single in an 0-2 count.

• Monday: Victor González allowed a two-run homer after getting ahead in the count 0-2.

Also, Sunday afternoon Dennis Santana couldn’t put Isaac Paredes away with two strikes (five two-strike foul balls) and walked him, then allowed an RBI single to Curtis Mead after getting ahead in the count 0-2. Every single game the bullpen’s lack of swing-and-miss costs the Yankees. The bullpen’s strikeout rate is a league worst 18.7%… There were a few injury updates in addition to Burdi and LeMahieu (and Berti) over the weekend. Thankfully, YES put up this graphic Sunday, so I don’t have to type them all out:

Something about seeing “minor hiccups” on an injury report made me laugh. Anyway, Boone told Greg Joyce that Effross is behind Trivino, who isn’t expected back until July or August. Effross isn’t coming to save the bullpen anytime soon. Really hope Kahnle brings last year’s 29.1% strikeout rate with him when he makes it back … And finally, the Nestor Cortes pump fake is indeed an illegal pitch. He told Sanchez that MLB told him he will be charged with an illegal pitch (i.e. a ball) the next time he does it. “I’m the only one that’s done it and the only one that will ever do it. I’m in the (record) books!” Cortes joked. Yeah, this makes sense to me. Seems like a pretty straightforward “pitchers should be allowed to do that” thing. Nice try, Nestor.

Up next

Three more games against the A’s and then a brutal six-game road trip through Milwaukee and Baltimore. The Brewers and Orioles went into Monday a combined 28-13 with a +64 run differential. Here’s what’s left of the A’s series:

• Tuesday vs. A’s: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Paul Blackburn (7pm ET)

• Wednesday vs. A’s: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Joe Boyle (7pm ET)

• Thursday vs. A’s: LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Alex Wood (7pm ET)

As we saw Monday, the A’s are not a pushover, but they are pretty bad. Taking at least two of these next three games before heading out on that road trip is imperative. That Brewers and Orioles road trip has a chance to be ugly with the way the offense is going. Would be nice to stack a few wins before then.

2. Rapid fire thoughts. Not gonna lie, I got a little teary-eyed during John Sterling’s retirement ceremony on Saturday. The Yankees have to put him in Monument Park. I get his retirement was abrupt and they may not have had time to prepare a plaque and all that, but Sterling belongs, and so does Suzyn Waldman (Waldman deserves to be in more than Sterling because she’s a pioneer as a women in the business). Mel Allen is the only broadcaster in Monument Park. That should change sooner rather than later … And finally, the Mets revealed their City Connect uniforms last week and they’re pretty boring. Honestly, they look like something I would have expected the straight-laced and conservative Yankees to cobble together (I do like the purple Nike Swoosh as a nod to the 7 train).

The gray is intended to represent concrete sidewalks (only in New York!), or so the Mets say. I get why they put NYC on the jerseys (they’ll sell better) but the Mets will never – never – be New York’s team. I say that as someone who has some Mets leanings because almost my entire family is Mets fans. I want them to do well. But no one’s first thought will be “Mets” when you bring up New York baseball. They should’ve gone with QUEENS and represented their borough. The Yankees are not planning on City Connects anytime soon – by the end of this season, the Yankees and Athletics will be the only teams without City Connects, and the A’s are in the process of abandoning their city – so I guess the Mets have free rein to claim NYC.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)