April 9th, 2024: Loáisiga, Bullpen, Volpe, Wells, Belt, Rice, Odor

Juan Soto’s first home game as a Yankee sent literal shockwaves through the Bronx. I was sitting in the press box when Friday’s earthquake hit and yeah, it was noticeable. It felt like when the old Yankee Stadium would shake during big moments, only the ballpark was empty. Gleyber Torres was in the middle of batting practice and kept hitting like nothing happened (video). The Mets finally won their first game of the season Thursday, then we got an earthquake Friday and a solar eclipse Monday. The end times are upon us. Anyway, here now is today’s post.

1. Loáisiga injured again. Jonathan Loáisiga’s annual arm injury came early this season. Loáisiga was placed on the 60-day injured list Friday with what the Yankees called a flexor train. On Saturday, he said he needs surgery and will be out 10-12 months. His UCL is damaged, though he is not having Tommy John surgery. I guess that means the internal brace? I dunno. Either way, his season is over.

“It was a couple pitches before he finished his outing (last Wednesday),” Aaron Boone said when asked when Loáisiga got hurt. “At the time he didn't really think it was that big a deal. Finished that inning, said something, and then after the game getting with him, I don't think he was too concerned about it.”

Funny thing is, Loáisiga looked great last Wednesday! One strikeout and two ground balls (80.6 mph and 67.6 mph exit velocities) in a 13-pitch 1-2-3 inning. He did not throw a fastball under 97.2 mph. Loáisiga had an uneven spring and he put some guys on base during his two outings in Houston. I thought Wednesday’s outing was encouraging and hoped it was a sign Loáisiga was about to lock it in. Then this. Go figure.

The Yankees signed Loáisiga as a minor league free agent in Feb. 2016 and he has visited the injured list with an arm injury every year since except the shortened 60-game pandemic season in 2020. He also had shoulder trouble with the Giants back in the day, which is why they released him. Loáisiga’s had elbow and shoulder issues with the Yankees. Those 98 mph sinkers are bad for your health.

“The strategy was fine,” Loáisiga told Gary Phillips about the plan to use him as a multi-inning reliever with multiple days of rest between appearances. “I was feeling really, really good up until that one pitch. So as far as usage and all that, I felt like it was a good strategy and a good way for me to work the game. But just one pitch and things changed.”

Loáisiga was limited to 17 appearances by elbow inflammation last season and he finished the year on the injured list, and the Yankees brought him along very slowly in Spring Training. Loáisiga did most of his work in simulated games and didn’t make his Grapefruit League debut until March 14th. You try hard, you have the best intentions, you do all you can to keep a guy healthy, and he still gets hurt. Pitchers, man.

Because he will be a free agent after the season, Loáisiga may have already thrown his final pitch as a Yankee. In a screwed up way though, I think the injury makes it more likely he returns. The Yankees love Loáisiga – his stuff, his makeup, etc. – and I could see them reuniting on a one-year contract similar to Lou Trivino’s deal this year. Low base salary right as Spring Training starts, that kinda thing.

That’s a topic for another time. In the short-term, Loáisiga’s injury creates a void in the late innings, and we’ve already seen it. Dennis Santana, who was called up to replace Loáisiga, and Nick Burdi, who will now see more high leverage work, let Friday’s home opener get away. Relievers (9.1) threw more innings than the starters (8.2) on Saturday and Sunday. The bullpen hierarchy currently looks like this:

• Closer: Clay Holmes

• Trusted high leverage guy: Ian Hamilton

• High leverage when Hamilton isn’t available: Nick Burdi and Caleb Ferguson

• Middle relief: Victor Gonzalez and Dennis Santana

• Long man: Luke Weaver

• Revolving door: Josh Maciejewski, currently

Tommy Kahnle will get back on a mound sometime this week and that puts him on track to return in what, three weeks maybe? Trivino and Scott Effross aren’t due back until the second half, and even then it remains to be seen how effective they are. Guys coming off Tommy John surgery can be wild. Maybe McKinley Moore will be a dude once he gets healthy? Beats me.

I was a bit surprised the Yankees went with Santana to replace Loáisiga. Santana had a good spring and he looked sharp Friday up until Boone asked him to pitch in a third different inning, but the Yankees could have used Loáisiga’s injured list stint to call up anyone. The 15-day rule didn’t apply. Goes to show where Ron Marinaccio sits in the pecking order right now. He’s behind Santana. Maybe a few others too.

The Yankees could’ve used Loáisiga’s injury to bring Clayton Beeter back, but they will instead keep him stretched out in Triple-A because *gestures at the rotation depth chart*. He threw 76 pitches in 3.1 innings on Saturday. Santana is out of options, so the Yankees can’t shuttle him in and out, though they couldn’t send Loáisiga down either, so the roster flexibility equation hasn’t really changed. That’s the same.

With a thinned out bullpen, Boone’s decision-making will have a greater impact, and that’s not good. In the past the Yankees had such a deep bullpen that it was almost Boone proof. His fifth best reliever could pitch in high leverage situations. That isn’t the case now. Kahnle’s return will help, though that is not imminent. For the first time in years, the bullpen looks a little dicey. So long, Johnny Lasagna. It’s been real.

“My mind is not there right now,” Loáisiga told Phillips about his time with the Yankees possibly being over. “My mind is on what I need to do next. Go see the doctor. Go through this and find my way recovering and getting back here.”

2. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees came back from a very successful season-opening road trip and debuted Juan Soto at Yankee Stadium on Friday, and then they laid a giant egg in the home opener. It was only the ninth time the Yankees were shut out in their home opener, and the first time since 1967. They made up for it the next three days though. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games (I could get used to these 2:01 games!).

Volpe’s hot start

Who is this Anthony Volpe? I like this year’s version much better than last year’s. With the caveat that it has only been 11 games and 42 plate appearances, Volpe is much more confident and competitive at the plate. The slash line speaks for itself – .417/.488/.667 (241 wRC+) – and look at the underlying numbers:

In terms of spray chart, this is a completely different hitter. It drove me nuts when people said Volpe was an all-fields hitter in the minors and he needed to get back to that (he was a dead pull hitter in the minors!), but he is an all-fields hitter now. He’s also chasing much less and making contact more often. Volpe adjusted his swing. That’s obviously helped. He’s also sharpened his approach.

“(Volpe) looks like a way better hitter, period,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch recently. “… I think it’s definitely the swing adjustments he’s made. Certainly his experience, his aptitude, and baseball IQ. But swing and miss was an issue for him last year. You can clearly see that he’s worked hard to plug some holes that the league exposed a little bit at times last year.”

Volpe is running a .520 BABIP and the gap between his actual stats and his Statcast expected stats is massive (.502 wOBA vs. .316 xwOBA, for example), so, spoiler, Volpe’s not going to hit .417 all season. He doesn’t need to hit .417 to be a productive hitter though. The hitter I’ve seen through 11 games looks a whole lot better than the .209/.283/.383 (84 wRC+) hitter Volpe was last year. Even Volpe at his best last year didn't look this good.

It’s tempting to say the Yankees should move Volpe into the leadoff spot and I totally understand it, but eh, I'd prefer to let the lineup breathe a little bit. No need to make changes after 11 games, especially when the Yankees are winning. Volpe’s having success right where he is, so let’s stick with it and let him build on this. We saw him have great 11-game spans last year too, right? Let’s make sure this is real.

The offense as a whole is so improved this season – they’re working counts, punishing mistakes, etc. – and Volpe looks like a new player. I didn’t have much confidence in the Yankees getting him on track given their failures with young position players the last 5-6 years, but this is more than a BABIP hot streak. Volpe’s approach and contact ability have improved, and those were his biggest issues a year ago.

“I feel like I’m setting myself up better for success,” Volpe told Hoch. “When I feel like I’m doing that, everything will take care of itself. Knowing that I’m always putting myself in positions to succeed, it definitely feels a lot better.”

Nestor’s needed gem

For multiple reasons, the Yankees badly needed Nestor Cortes to pitch well against the Marlins on Monday night. They needed to see him be effective after two rocky starts to begin the season, and they also needed him to spare the bullpen. It was worked very hard over the weekend. And Nestor delivered: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K. The Marlins stink, for sure, but pitching well against bad teams is part of the gig.

“That was fun,” Cortes told Bryan Hoch about beating his hometown team. “When you’re out there giving guys zeros, you just keep (the offense) in the game long enough for them to explode like that. That’s what you hope for as a starting pitcher.”

To me, the biggest difference Monday night was cutter command. Cortes had an extra day of rest and his velocity was back in its normal range, so that helped, but Nestor was able to get the cutter in on righties and out of the middle of the plate. His cutter locations:

Cortes did not allow a runner to reach second base and he threw 11 changeups. He threw two changeups in his first two starts combined and he used the pitch 6.4% of the time during his heyday from 2021-22. You have to go back to Sept. 2021 for the last time Cortes threw 11 changeups in a game. Miami had eight righties in their lineup, so maybe it’s just that, but we’ll have to pay attention to Nestor’s changeup usage moving forward. 

"These guys have big swings,” Cortes told Hoch. “It felt like there was a couple guys in there that I was able to throw a changeup to. I got into counts where I was able to throw it, and I executed really well.”

Prior to Monday night, Yankees starters other than Marcus Stroman had recorded only two outs after the fifth inning: Clarke Schmidt went 5.1 innings in Houston and Carlos Rodón went 5.1 innings in Arizona. That was it. (Stroman went six innings in each of his two starts.) Every other start had been no more than five innings. And it’s not all third time through the order related either. Consider:

• Cortes gave up three innings in the first inning in each of his first two starts, shortening his outing.

• Schmidt threw 91 pitches in 4.1 innings Saturday.

• Luis Gil threw 95 pitches in 4.1 innings Sunday.

Because of all the short starts, the bullpen has had to work a lot these first 11 games. The starters have thrown 58.1 innings and the relievers have thrown 41.2 innings, so it was 50.1 and 40.2 before Monday night, respectively. The only teams to need more innings from their bullpen thus far are the Dodgers and Padres, who have played two extra games because of the Seoul Series, and the very bad Marlins.

“Especially when it's early in the year, when you are winning games, it takes all of them,” Boone said about his relievers Friday. “You can't just ride two, three, four guys on a daily basis. That's been the case so far. We've seen Fergy contribute. We’ve seen Victor González get a save one day. They're all gonna be asked and put in some important spots.”

The Yankees have a pitching staff that runs up high pitch counts and that is contributing to the short starts and bullpen overload. Gil has walked or struck out more than 50% of the batters he's faced in his two starts (36.8% strikeouts and 18.4% walks)! Jake Cousins and Nick Burdi are high strikeout/high walk relievers who can’t really give length (Cousins was sent down Monday). Schmidt is not the model of efficiency either.

This is hardly unique to the Yankees – it feels like every game this year has been a glorified bullpen game on both sides – but that doesn’t make it okay. Bullpen burnout is a real concern and, at this pace, it could happen in June or July. The Yankees have some pitchers coming (JT Brubaker, Gerrit Cole, Scott Effross, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino) but there is a ways to go between here and there.

I’ve done this long ago to know how quickly things can go from “the bullpen is really getting overworked” to “we have to use the closer up eight runs because he needs work.” The Yankees have an off-day Thursday and another off-day next Thursday, so there’s some built in rest coming. Still, it would be nice to string a few 6-7 inning starts together, both for starter effectiveness reasons and bullpen workload reasons.

Wells and the catcher platoon

The .150/.308/.150 (55 wRC+) line is an eyesore but it feels like Austin Wells is on the verge of breaking out. He has more walks (five) than strikeouts (three), a single-digit swinging strike rate (8.3%), and he’s hit the ball hard with little to show for it (.150 SLG vs. .725 xSLG!). This ball gets out in the summer. This was inches from being a double. This was great contact against a 98.6 mph heater. Wells is close.

Wells has started six of 11 games, all against righties, including Sunday’s day game after Saturday’s night game. The Yankees did that knowing Jose Trevino would be behind the plate Monday night against Jesús Luzardo. What happens the next two days? The Marlins are starting lefties Tuesday (A.J. Puk) and Wednesday (Ryan Weathers). Thursday’s an off-day. The Yankees can’t possibly start Trevino the next two days and sit Wells four straight days, can they? Wells is gonna get a start (or two!) against a lefty this week. It has to happen eventually. This is a good week to do it.

Trevino hasn’t hit yet – he is 1-for-15 with three double plays, so that’s 17 outs in 15 at-bats, and the one hit was a bloop off the first baseman’s glove (video) – but it’s early and he’s coming off wrist surgery. Plus it’s not like he’s in the lineup for his bat. Beyond the traditional platoon, there might be a personal catcher thing going on:

• Nestor Cortes: 3 starts with Trevino

• Carlos Rodón: 2 starts with Wells

• Marcus Stroman: 1 start with Wells and 1 start with Trevino

• Clarke Schmidt: 1 start with Wells and 1 start with Trevino

• Luis Gil: 2 starts with Wells

I dunno. It seems more notable that Trevino has been behind the plate every time the opposing starter has been a lefty. I have to think that’ll change this week with Miami throwing three southpaws. I’m not really sure where I’m going here. I guess I just wanted to say I think Wells is on the verge of really breaking out, and that it seems he and Trevino are in a strict platoon at the moment.

Miscellany

Kevin Gausman had a shoulder issue in Spring Training and the Blue Jays have built him up slowly, but it was still alarming to see his fastball sitting 91.4 mph Saturday night. Last year it was 94.7 mph. Gausman was obviously diminished and the Yankees took advantage. Their swings and takes were so comfortable that I thought Gausman might’ve been tipping his pitches and/or the Yankees had his signs on top of the lack of velocity. Was nice to see the Yankees pummel a pitcher who’s pitched very well against them the last few years … Alex Verdugo entered Monday’s game with a .143/.225/.229 (36 wRC+) line and, other than the home run in Arizona, he’d done a whole bunch of nothing. You could tell he was getting frustrated by his body language. Things started to go his way Monday night. Verdugo went 3-for-4 with a double and a walk and raised his line to .211/.295/.316 (84 wRC+). Hopefully this is the start of something. Good reminder that it’s still so early in the season that you can raise your wRC+ close to 50 points in one night … Congrats to Josh Maciejewski on his big league debut. The Yankees needed a fresh arm who could chew up innings, so he got the call. The 28-year-old got three quick ground balls on four pitches in a 1-2-3 inning Monday. Clayton Beeter had a three-pitch debut and Maciejewski had a four-pitch debut. How about that? Maciejewski signed for $7,500 as a tenth round pick in 2018 and he is the first player from that draft class to play for the Yankees. The only other player the Yankees signed that draft to play in the big leagues is fourth rounder Frank German, who threw four innings after the Yankees sent him to the Red Sox in the Adam Ottavino salary dump. The 2018 draft was not pretty (Clayton Andrews was DFAed to clear a 40-man roster spot for Maciejewski) … Boone obviously should have pinch-hit Wells for Trevino on Friday. He said he didn’t because changeup specialist Trevor Richards is a reverse split guy, and Boone is right about the reverse splits …

• 2022-23 Richards vs. RHB: .241/.323/.429 (.326 wOBA) with 21.8 K% and 10.3 BB%

• 2022-23 Richards vs. LHB: .222/.326/.389 (.311 wOBA) with 29.7 K% and 13.4 BB%

… but that doesn’t automatically mean a righty is more likely to get a hit against Richards than a lefty. The hitter’s talent also matters and Wells is a better hitter than Trevino. Give me Wells against a righty over Trevino every time, even when that righty is a reserve split guy … Luke Weaver has run into trouble when pitching in his third separate inning in each of his last two appearances. That third “up” seems to get him. In three appearances Weaver’s faced 27 batters and thrown 114 pitches. He has one strikeout (3.7% strikeout rate) and five swings and misses (4.4% swinging strikes). That is not gonna work, even as a low leverage long man. With the bullpen shorthanded, Weaver needs to be better, even just relative to his role … And finally, the Yankees have used Sunday’s starting lineup …

1. 2B Gleyber Torres
2. RF Juan Soto
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. 1B Anthony Rizzo
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton
6. LF Alex Verdugo
7. SS Anthony Volpe
8. C Austin Wells
9. 3B Oswaldo Cabrera

… four times through 12 games. That exact lineup. Those players at those positions in those lineup spots. Four times we’ve seen it already. Last year the Yankees never used a specific starting lineup more than twice. They used several lineups twice, but none more than twice. You have to go back to 2021 for the last time the Yankees used a lineup four times. The last time they used a lineup more than four times was 2018. They used this lineup seven times that year:

1. LF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. SS Didi Gregorius
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. C Gary Sánchez
6. CF Aaron Hicks
7. 1B Neil Walker
8. 3B Miguel Andújar
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

That lineup looks like it is from another lifetime. The Yankees have a consistent lineup? I barely recognize this team anymore. (That’s a good thing.)

Up next

Two more games remain on the homestand. The Yankees go to Cleveland this weekend and then Toronto next week. Here’s what’s coming up between now and the next post:

• Tuesday vs. Marlins: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. LHP A.J. Puk (7pm ET)

• Wednesday vs. Marlins: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. LHP Ryan Weathers (7pm ET)

• Thursday: off-day

The Marlins are very bad, and although sweeping any team in this league is a lot to ask, it sure would be great to head into the off-day with an 11-2 record. Also, the Blue Jays finally played their first home game of the season Monday night. The multi-year renovation project at Rogers Centre was completed this offseason and they have a nice new backstop:

Much better than the blue padding, blue seats, and blue walls. The playing field is unchanged. That work was done last offseason. This offseason’s renovations were seat and concourse upgrades, things like that. Anyway, there’s a Rogers Centre update for some reason. The Yankees will visit for the first time this year next week.

3. The case for signing Brandon Belt. Eleven games into the season, the Yankees are 9-2, and they have leaned on their offense to overcome a pitching staff that has walked a tightrope at times. That is the surest sign the 2024 Yankees are different from the 2023 Yankees, even after only 11 games. If last year’s team didn't pitch well, they didn’t win. This year the offense is giving the pitchers much more support.

Squint your eyes though and there are worrisome signs. Giancarlo Stanton has a 43.2% strikeout rate and a 44.8% chase rate. He had a big weekend against the Blue Jays, for sure, but the long-term trend is not good. Anthony Rizzo is running an 85.6 mph average exit velocity. Oswaldo Cabrera is 4-for-17 with four singles since his big series in Houston. It’s early, but not early enough to take notice of things like this.

Upgrading the offense this time of year usually isn’t easy – my hunch is the Yankees will wait for DJ LeMahieu and maybe even Jasson Domínguez to return before making substantial changes – though there are still a few veteran hitters on the free agent market. Good ones too. Tommy Pham is unsigned, Donovan Solano is unsigned, and so is Brandon Belt. His market has been quiet despite a strong 2023.

“It’s kind of baffled me a little bit," Belt said during a recent podcast appearance. "I honestly haven’t had hardly any calls at all that have gone past the point of teams saying, ‘Hey, we’re interested.’ That they were just checking in. We haven’t even gotten down to talking about money with anybody or anything like that. I wish I had an answer for you (why there’s been little interest). I just don’t.”

Belt, 36 later this month, is coming off a .254/.369/.490 (138 wRC+) line with 19 home runs in 404 plate appearances with the Blue Jays in 2023. Over the last three years he’s hit .249/.360/.489 (134 wRC+), though the jump from a 27.1% strikeout rate from 2021-22 to a 34.9% strikeout rate in 2023 is a red flag. That said, Belt’s plate discipline and contact ability remained intact last year:

• 2021: 19.6% chase rate and 11.5% swinging strikes 

• 2022: 21.9% chase rate and 13.3% swinging strikes

• 2023: 19.3% chase rate and 11.8% swinging strikes

For whatever reason, Belt took more called strike threes last year (46 in 2023 after 49 from 2021-22), and that could be an age-related issue. If he’s sitting on certain pitches because that’s the only way he can hit them, then he could end up taking more strike threes. Sure. Belt’s contact quality was strong, however, so it’s not like the results were unsupported. He legitimately hit well in 2023 and he wants to play in 2024.

"I definitely wanted to go to somebody that had a chance to win something, but that was about it,” Belt said on the podcast. “... I just wanted to play baseball, so we’ll wait to see who comes forward and decide then. But it’s just that nobody’s come forward. It’s been kind of confusing because last year I was coming off a season where I was injured the entire season and it was pretty easy to sign last year. I had quite a few teams calling. Quite a few teams wanted me to come play for them, and this year it’s just been basically zero. I don’t know how to explain it.”

The Yankees have looked very good through 11 games, though there is always room for improvement, and Belt is coming off a very good season and is available for nothing but cash. You don’t have to trade anything for him and you don’t have to surrender draft picks or international bonus pool money either. There’s no qualifying offer attached. Should the Yankees pursue Belt? Let’s talk out how he’d fit.

The Yankees could use a DH who can hit righties

Does Stanton’s big weekend against those Blue Jays righties mean he’s coming around, and his slimmed down physique and swing adjustments are working? I really hope so, but the home runs came on 93.2 mph and 91.3 mph fastballs, and the two singles a 93.9 mph fastball and an 87.4 mph slider. Giancarlo still isn’t getting to above-average velocity, and he did slash .175/.264/.376 (75 wRC+) with a 32.6% strikeout rate against righties last season. We can’t just ignore that because of two good games.

The Yankees could put Trent Grisham (remember him?) in center and then cycle Aaron Judge and Juan Soto through the DH spot, which would at least upgrade the defense, though Grisham isn’t much of a hitter. If the Yankees want to upgrade the offense, a DH who can reliably hit righties is one way to do it. And Belt still hits righties very well. The numbers:

2023 vs. RHP: .256/.375/.515 (146 wRC+) with 34.5 K% and 15.6 BB%
2023 vs. LHP: .235/.308/.265 (64 wRC+) with 38.5 K% and 10.3 BB%

2021-23 vs. RHP: .256/.363/.522 (142 wRC+) with 30.8 K% and 13.2 BB%
2021-23 vs. LHP: .217/.347/.335 (99 wRC+) with 26.5 K% and 14.8 BB%

Belt’s ball-tracking data (exit velocity, etc.) is much better against righties as well, so he’s a classic platoon bat on the heavy side of the platoon. He pulls the ball at a higher than league average rate too, so Belt would likely get a short porch boost. If you think Stanton can still be useful against lefties – he did hit .265/.324/.618 (152 wRC+) against southpaws in 2023 – he and Belt could be a great DH platoon.

And hey, if it turns out that Stanton can actually hit righties again, great! Maybe it’s Alex Verdugo who loses playing time then, with Stanton seeing some outfield time. Grisham in center with Judge and Soto taking turns at DH is a viable fallback plan until LeMahieu and/or Domínguez return. Belt mashed righties as recently as last season and would be a more straightforward DH option against righties.

The Yankees lack first base depth

And that was true even before LeMahieu got hurt. It’s one reason I was surprised Ben Rice started the season back in Double-A rather than moving up to Triple-A (more on this later). I figured the Yankees would want to give Rice time at the highest minor league level in case he’s needed later this summer. The first base depth chart currently looks like this:

1. Anthony Rizzo
2. DJ LeMahieu (injured)
3. Oswaldo Cabrera
4. Jose Rojas?
5. Jordan Groshans?
6. Ben Rice

We have no idea when LeMahieu will return, though odds are it won’t be anytime soon. He’s in a holding pattern right now. He can’t work out too intensely because his foot needs to heal, and the Yankees are getting new images on his foot every two weeks to check on his progress. If we see LeMahieu before May 1st, I would be pleasantly surprised. 

“I don’t think he’s that far off from starting to play in games, but he’s been down now for some time,” Aaron Boone told Gary Phillips about LeMahieu. “So you want to get him against live pitching and then get him into games to where you can build him up again.”

Rizzo hasn’t hit much yet (.220/.333/.317 with 102 wRC+), though his at-bats have been fine. My larger point is the Yankees have basically no first base depth behind him. And Rizzo is coming off a concussion, had a lat issue late in Spring Training, and has a long history of back trouble. If his back locks up again, we’re looking at Oswaldo Cabrera, Starting First Baseman, and nope.

Belt is not a standout glove man (-4 DRS and +0 OAA the last three years) and he DHed much more than he played first base last season, but he can still play first base if you need it. He can give Rizzo a day here and there and he can play first base for 2-3 weeks in the event of an injury. We don’t know when LeMahieu is coming back and there’s little first base depth in Triple-A. Belt would address that organizational weakness.

Berti and Cabrera provide coverage all over

Using a roster spot on another first base/DH only type is suboptimal, though the Yankees could swing it because Cabrera and Jon Berti can play all over. Cabrera has played every position in the big leagues except pitcher and catcher. Berti has played every position except first base, pitcher, and catcher. I’d argue the Yankees have their most versatile roster in years right now, thanks in part to those two.

If nothing else, Berti’s and Cabrera’s versatility gives the Yankees the option of carrying a more limited player like Belt. They don’t need someone who can, say, play a few innings at third base or in right field in an emergency. Berti and Cabrera have them covered, and if an injury is bad enough that they need a more versatile player, then that’s what the injured list is for. Call players up as needed.

Also, Jahmai Jones never plays. He is only on the roster because LeMahieu and Oswald Peraza are hurt, and he has one at-bat and 2.2 defensive innings this season. Those came the Friday before last, when Gleyber Torres pulled himself from the second game of the season because he took a pitch to the thumb and couldn’t grip the ball properly to make a throw. Jones is growing roots on the bench.

That’s the way to look at this. It’s not Belt or Stanton, or Belt or Rizzo. It’s Belt or Jones. Belt would have a role as a lefty hitting DH and part-time first baseman. Jones has no role. Berti’s and Cabrera’s versatility allow the Yankees to carry a player with Belt’s defensive limitations, and they should take advantage of that, no? Jones doesn’t serve much of a purpose. Belt would, and that’s the roster spot we’re talking about.

He’ll come cheap

I assume so, anyway. Belt played on a one-year, $9.3M contract last year and I can’t imagine he’ll get anywhere close to that now. Not with the regular season already underway. Enrique Hernández and Michael A. Taylor signed for $4M late in Spring Training. Adam Duvall got $3M, and Brandon Crawford and Eddie Rosario each got $2M. That’s a salary range for a veteran hitter at this point in the calendar.

The Yankees have taken on some money these last two weeks. They absorbed Berti’s $3.625M salary and also JT Brubaker’s $2.275M salary. Add in the 110% luxury tax rate and it’s $12.39M all-in for those two. FanGraphs estimates the luxury tax payroll at $312.4M. That would come with a $58.34M luxury tax bill. Add in Belt at, say, $3M, and it’s another $3.3M in luxury tax on top of that. It’s a lot in the real world.

But the thing is, it’s just money, and it's not a lot of money to the Yankees. We’re talking an additional $6.6M all-in, assuming $3M works for Belt (I don’t know that it will, to be clear). The Yankees can either spend money now to sign Belt and add a bat, or they wait until the deadline to trade prospects to get a bat, and they’ll probably have to take on money to make that happen anyway.

Point is, this will not be some significant expense, relatively speaking. Belt’s not going to get the $12M the Mets gave J.D. Martinez because he’s not as good as Martinez, and because his leverage is minimal with the season already underway. If he wants more than a few million, then you don’t sign him. Spending a little extra cash now is better than waiting to trade prospects later, I say.

* * *

Whichever team signs Belt will not be able to plug him into the lineup tomorrow. He’ll need a few weeks to get up to speed at the plate. The Mets signed Martinez on March 24th and they’re hopeful he’ll join the team this coming weekend. He’s playing in minor league games and his debut will depend on how he feels at the plate. It’ll take Martinez a good 2-3 weeks to get game ready though. Figure the same is true for Belt.

Two or three weeks is a long time in this game. LeMahieu could be back by then, Rizzo and Stanton could be hitting by then, Rice could be in Triple-A and mashing by then. If the Yankees sign Belt, we could be sitting here on May 1st wondering where exactly he fits. That’s a pie in the sky scenario though. If all that happens and the Yankees have Belt too, great. I welcome the possibility of too many good players.

Belt would not be a quick fix. He’ll need a few weeks to get up to speed before rejoining whichever team signs him. Still, Belt is available right now for just money, and he would fill a need for the Yankees (lefty bat who can hit righties and also provide depth at first base) without crippling them with his lack of versatility. Belt is far from a perfect fit, I admit that, but you don’t have to try too hard to see him as a fit.

4. A quick word on Rice. Ben Rice, my No. 11 prospect, returned to Double-A to begin this season despite hitting .327/.401/.648 (182 wRC+) at the level last year, and turning 25 in February. He went deep in his first at-bat of the season Friday night (video). Rice is 4-for-14 (.286) with the home run through three games in the early days of 2024. Five strikeouts is a bit surprising, but again, three games.

Anyway, as I’ve written several times the last week or so, I was surprised Rice started the season back in Double-A. Over the weekend I was reminded of this quote from vice president of player development Kevin Reese. It’s from last September and Reese was talking about the decision to call up Jasson Domínguez after only nine games in Triple-A. Here’s what Reese said (via Andy Martino):

There is some stuff going on in Triple-A right now that’s really weird. I say that in a good way, because I think it’s good for the game. I don’t know that we want to get into too much detail about this, but the automated strike zone is helping hitters a lot and making it harder for pitchers. So we had some discussions about what it means to check that box in Triple-A versus what it used to mean? And I think it’s a little different for different guys.

Jasson has always been a guy who controlled the strike zone pretty well, and he controlled it even better with the automated strike zone. That can give guys a little bit of a false sense at times when they get to the big leagues, and all of a sudden that pitch that’s two, three inches off the plate is called a strike. He has done a great job laying off pitches that were out of the zone and swinging at pitches he could do something with.

Basically, the Yankees didn’t want Domínguez to spend too much time with the automated strike zone in Triple-A because it could affect his approach and his understanding of the strike zone. The same logic could also apply to the short Triple-A stints for Everson Pereira, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Wells. They all played only a few Triple-A games before being called up. (What does this say about Oswald Peraza?)

Maybe this is the reason Rice is in Double-A? His whole thing is military style plate discipline. Coming into 2024, Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote “Rice’s hallmark has been his strong plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills,” and Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) added “he’s a SEAGER score darling,” meaning he rates well in their swing decision metric. I know several model-heavy teams love Rice.

You don’t want to mess with Rice’s approach and knowledge of the strike zone, and based on what Reese said about Domínguez last year, this could be why Rice is still in Double-A. To avoid the automated strike zone in Triple-A. If and when the Yankees promote him to Triple-A later this year, Rice’s stay in Scranton could be short. Just a pit stop before the Yankees bring him to the Bronx. 

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Welcome back, Rougned Odor. The Yankees signed Odor to a minor league deal with a July 1st opt out over the weekend, according to Jon Heyman. Odor signed with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan this past offseason, then asked for his release a few weeks ago after being told he didn’t make the team and would be sent to the minors. I’ll say this much: Odor’s 2021-23 were better than his 2017-20 (83 wRC+ vs. 74 wRC+). He’s been remarkably consistent at the plate the last three years:

• 2021 with Yankees: .202/.286/.379 (84 wRC+)

• 2022 with Orioles: .207/.275/.357 (82 wRC+)

• 2023 with Padres: .203/.299/.355 (86 wRC+)

Somehow still only 30, Odor played second, third, and also some right field with the Padres last season. He even played two-thirds of an inning at first. Is Odor a better use of a roster spot than Jahmai Jones? I can’t believe I just asked that. Odor is more experienced at third base and he could be more useful as a lefty pull hitter than Jones, who’s a righty. Neither figures to be any good, though maybe Odor is not good in a way that is more useful. I dunno … Potential deadline target Shane Bieber needs elbow reconstruction. The Guardians haven’t said whether he’ll have full blown Tommy John surgery or just the internal brace, but either way Bieber will miss the rest of the season. He was terrific in his first two starts (12 IP, 10 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 20 K), so the announcement kinda came out of nowhere. Bieber did miss two months with elbow inflammation last year though. It’s terrible timing for him too seeing how he’ll be a free agent this offseason. I’m sure we’ll circle back and discuss Bieber as a potential free agent target this winter. For the trade deadline though, forget it. He’s no longer an option … And finally, I don’t feel like wading too deep into the “why are pitchers getting hurt?” waters even after MLB and the MLBPA traded barbs. The pitch clock is not going away. The MLBPA can either accept that and look for actual solutions, or continue to stamp its feet. Ultimately, the game rewards high velocity and big spin and max effort pitching, and those things have been shown to correlate to injuries. I have no idea how you address that. It’s easy to say they should teach “pitching” rather than “throwing,” for lack of better terms, but do that and you’re just going to fall behind, either as a team in the standings or as a player in the race for dollars and service time. There is no easy solution. The sport inherently rewards pitchers who employ a style that is dangerous to their arms.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)