Quick thoughts before Opening Day 2024

The 2024 regular season begins this afternoon, 182 days since the Yankees last played a game that had stakes for either team. They’re in Houston to take on the Astros. Juan Soto is a Yankee. So too are Marcus Stroman and Alex Verdugo. Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe are still around, though Gerrit Cole will miss the first few months of the season.

“Across the board our guys came in ready to go when Spring Training started,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch earlier this week. “We feel like we have a lot to prove this year, coming off a season where we didn’t make the playoffs. We want to change that. We expect to be in the playoffs and competing for a championship every day. That’s the mindset of the players.”

Even after losing Cole, I have the Yankees as a 90-ish win team (based mostly on vibes), which should be enough to contend for a Wild Card spot, but likely not the AL East title. Here’s the latest ZiPS projection:

The range of potential outcomes for this roster is very, very wide. I could see the 2024 Yankees winning anywhere from 75-100 games. If things click and the guys they need to bounce back actually bounce back, they’ll be a powerhouse. If the injuries mount – the Yankees are certainly starting off on the wrong foot health-wise – and a lack of depth is exposed, it’ll be time for sweeping changes. Like, for real.

In a few hours the Yankees will either be 1-0 and planning the parade, or 0-1 and we’ll be wondering where they’ll trade Soto at the deadline. Opening Day wins and losses have that way about them, you know? Here are a few quick thoughts before the 2024 season opener. (Is this an okay time to mention I launched a new and completely voluntary pricing tier in January?) 

1. Opening Day roster finalized (finally). The first game of the new season is a few hours away and the Yankees announced their Opening Day roster earlier this morning. Here’s the group the Yankees will begin the season with. It is as expected:

The Opening Day roster and the Game 162 roster will not look the same. We don’t have a Game 1 lineup yet, though Aaron Boone said Wednesday the plan is Torres at leadoff against the lefty Framber Valdez, Soto in the No. 2 spot, and Trevino at catcher. New addition Jon Berti could start at third base as long as he makes it to Houston in time. If not, it’ll be Cabrera.

One thing I neglected to mention yesterday is Berti and hitting coach James Rowson were together from 2020-22, when Rowson was Miami’s bench coach. Hopefully that eases Berti’s transition. Also, poor Ben Rortvedt flew with the Yankees from Tampa to Houston on Monday afternoon, then had to turn around and fly back to Tampa to join the Rays. Hopefully he gets some frequent flier miles out of it.

The Yankees closed their workout to the media Wednesday, which is weak, but the hype video they posted this morning tells us Gil threw a simulated game yesterday. I thought maybe he’d stay in Tampa to do that, but no, he’s in Houston. Gil presumably got up to 75-ish pitches. He’s lined up to start Game 5 of the season on normal rest. Sign me up for 2024 Luis Gil performing like 2017-18 Luis Severino.

Also, Cole is with the Yankees. I wasn’t sure whether he’d travel with the team or continue his rehab in Tampa, but he’s in Houston. Cole is basically an extra coach, so I’m glad he’ll be around. I assume he’ll hang with the team until the home opener next Friday – the reigning Cy Young winner needs to be there for baseline introductions, right? right – then he might head to Tampa and begin ramping up from there.

Anyway, the Opening Day roster is set and Game 1 of 162 is in a few hours. Happy baseballing, folks. Let’s all go crazy together these next few months.

2. The AL East outlook and the early season schedule. The Yankees begin the season with four games in Houston and that’s about as unfavorable a first series as it gets. Even ignoring the lopsided recent postseason history, the Astros will be really good again, and the Yankees have to go into their building four times in four days. At least they’ll get it over with, I guess.

The Astros series is the first of four straight series against 2023 postseason teams, and the Yankees will play 16 of their first 22 games against teams FanGraphs projects at a .510 winning percentage or better. Here’s the schedule to start the season:

• March 28-31: 4 games at Astros

• April 1-3: 3 games at Diamondbacks

• April 4: off-day

• April 5-7: 3 games vs. Blue Jays

• April 8-10: 3 games vs. Marlins

• April 11: off-day

• April 12-14: 3 games at Guardians

• April 15-17: 3 games at Blue Jays

• April 18: off-day

• April 19-21: 3 games vs. Rays

The Yankees also have a series against the Orioles at the end of April and another series with the Rays in mid May. That’s five series against division rivals the Yankees won’t have Gerrit Cole. They have another series with the Astros in mid May as well, and there’s a chance the Yankees and Astros are fighting for one Wild Card spot come September. No Cole in those two series could be the difference.

The Blue Jays have a really tough schedule to begin the season – they start with 10 straight games against the Rays, Astros, and Yankees, then play the Dodgers later in April – but the Orioles definitely do not. They play the Angels, then the Royals, then the Pirates, then the Red Sox, then a week later the Royals and Pirates again, then the Athletics. Talks about a cupcake schedule to start the season. Sheesh.

You can only play the schedule you’re given, and the new more balanced schedule means it’ll all even out in the end. Still, the Yankees have a tough schedule to begin 2024, and this is a season in which they really need to start out well. The natives are restless, and after going 82-80 last year, no one’s gonna wanna hear about the difficult schedule if the Yankees are, say, 16-15 and seven games behind the Orioles on May 1st.

There are six postseason spots per league, four of which are available to the Yankees (spoiler: they won’t win the AL Central and AL West). The competition for those four spots will likely be the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rays, and whichever two of the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers don’t win the AL West. The Yankees have to finish ahead of at least three and possibly four of those teams. That’s the math.

It’s too early to think about all that though. The season hasn’t even started yet. And ultimately, the April schedule is what it is. Any team can beat any other team on any given night in this game, and “difficult” or “easy” schedules do not guarantee outcomes. I hope we’re sitting here in four weeks saying the Yankees handled April well while the Orioles failed to capitalize. That would be welcome.

I’m excited about this season, much moreso than I was going into last season, though I admit the Cole injury put a bit of a damper on things. Juan Soto will be such a game-changer. If nothing else, he’ll make the Yankees much more watchable this year. Last year’s team wasn’t just mediocre. It was boring. Mediocre and boring is a bad, bad combination. I’m excited, even if only at the promise of a more entertaining team.  

3. The remaining few who played at the old Yankee Stadium. This is the 16th season of the new Yankee Stadium – can we still call it new? – and there are only a few active players who played across the street at the old ballpark. There were 20 such players in 2022. There were 10 in 2023. Last year I said I wasn’t sure there would be five names on the list this year, and there are not. The list:

1. David Robertson: 13 games at the old Yankee Stadium
2. Justin Verlander: 2 games at the old Yankee Stadium

That’s it. Robertson, who signed with the Rangers over the winter, and Verlander are the only two players on 2024 Opening Day rosters (or the injured list in Verlander’s case) who played at the old Yankee Stadium. Joey Votto is on a minor league deal with the Blue Jays and would make it three players if they call him up. He played three games at the old stadium. 

Evan Longoria (six games at the old Yankee Stadium), Zack Greinke (four), Johnny Cueto (one), and Rich Hill (one) are all unsigned free agents who could sign at some point, but when you’re their age and you’re not signed on Opening Day, chances are your career is over. If Votto gets called up, he’ll make it three, but right now Robertson and Verlander are the only active players who played at the old Yankee Stadium.

The last active player to play at the old Yankee Stadium should be a Yankee, so I hope Robertson outlasts Verlander, I thought I suppose a Hall of Famer being the last is okay too. Robertson has age on his side. He turns 39 in two weeks. Verlander turned 41 in February and has an achy shoulder. I hope Robertson can outlast Verlander, but if it’s Verlander, then it’s Verlander.

Verlander has said he wants to pitch until he’s 45, though that was a few years ago now. He’s had Tommy John surgery since then, and he’s had shoulder issues last year and now this year. Will there be anyone on this list next year? I think so, I bet at least one of Robertson or Verlander is still pitching in 2025, but it’s not definite. The old Yankee Stadium group is dwindling.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)