RAB’s 10 bold predictions for the 2024 Yankees

Opening Day is fast approaching and that means it is time, once again, for RAB’s sure-to-be-wrong bold predictions for the upcoming season. I didn’t always make 10 bold predictions. I made five predictions a year from 2018-21, then I went back to 10 two years ago, and that’s just a better number. Five doesn’t feel like enough. Here’s how I’ve fared over the years:

• 2017: 7-for-10

• 2018: 0-for-5

• 2019: 0-for-5

• 2020: 0-for-5

• 2021: 1-for-5

• 2022: 5-for-10

• 2023: 2-for-10

So that’s 15-for-50? I’m a .300 hitter! The game made sure to humble me after that 2017 showing. Believe it or not, I do put thought into these bold predictions. I don’t want to be lazy about this and fart out nonsense like “Aaron Judge will break his own home run record!” I do take this seriously. A wise man once said you can’t predict baseball, but I do have fun trying.

One thing I’ve learned over the years is it’s best to make bold predictions that aren’t subjective. They should be easily verifiable. Yes or no, black or white. No gray area. Either it happened or it didn’t. This exercise loses a little something when success or failure is difficult to quantify. Anyway, enough rambling. Here are RAB’s 10 bold predictions for the 2024 Yankees (in no particular order).

Ian Hamilton will be the first reliever used

I’m going to get oddly specific with my first bold prediction and say Hamilton will be the first reliever to come out of the bullpen this season. Nestor Cortes will start Opening Day, throw however many innings, then Aaron Boone will call on Hamilton to replace him. Hamilton, last year’s non-roster bullpen revelation, has had a fantastic spring (8.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 13 K), not that he needed a good spring to make the team.

There are a few reasons I think Boone will go to Hamilton as his first reliever. First, Hamilton is firmly in the Circle of Trust™, and Boone’s track record tells us a Circle of Trust™ reliever will be the first guy out of the bullpen on Opening Day regardless of the inning and the score. Here are the first relievers used on Opening Day in the Boone era:

• 2018: Chad Green entered with the Yankees up 4-0 in the sixth

• 2019: Adam Ottavino entered with the Yankees up 6-2 in the sixth

• 2020: No relievers used (game called after 5.1 innings due to rain)

• 2021: Chad Green entered with the score tied in the sixth

• 2022: Chad Green entered with the score tied in the fifth

• 2023: Wandy Peralta entered with the Yankees up 3-0 in the seventh

What is Hamilton if not the new Chad Green? That’s my second reason. Hamilton has been stretched out as a two-inning guy this spring (three of his six appearances have been multiple innings) and Cortes threw 75 pitches in his final spring start last week. The Yankees are handling him carefully after the shoulder trouble, so Nestor might only go five innings on Opening Day. It’s likely a multi-inning guy relieves him.

Furthermore, it’s likely a right-handed reliever will replace Cortes. The Yankees start the season in Houston and, last week, Astros manager Joe Espada told Chandler Rome he is considering batting Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker back-to-back. I think it’s more likely Cortes stays in to face the two lefties than another lefty comes in to replace Cortes, upping the odds a right-hander is the first reliever out of the bullpen.

And third, there were times last season when it felt like Boone couldn’t wait to get Hamilton into the game. It wasn’t a Joe Torre/Scott Proctor situation. Boone takes care not to overwork his top relievers. But he trusts Hamilton and will deploy him in any situation. I can see Hamilton coming in to protect a lead, to snuff out a rally and keep it close, with the score tied, you name it. That works in my favor, I think.

Everything I just said about Hamilton also applies to Jonathan Loáisiga, who the Yankees plan to use as a multi-inning guy. Loáisiga is higher on the trust depth chart and, when right, he’s one of the top relievers in the game. There’s a chance Boone goes to him right away on Opening Day. I see Loáisiga as the biggest threat to this bold prediction. Still, that’s my prediction. Hamilton will be the first reliever used in 2024.

Aaron Judge will start fewer than 74 games in center field

Seventy-four is a specific number and I picked it for a reason: 74 is the number of games Judge started in center field in 2022. So this bold prediction amounts to Judge not matching his 2022 workload in center despite entering the season as the everyday center fielder. I thought about going with 60 games, but that seemed like too few. Then I thought about 80, but it felt like too many. I think 74 works.

I’m predicting this because, first and foremost, the Yankees don’t want to run Judge into the ground. There is a lot of running around in center field. Not only on the plays the center field makes, but also backing up the two corners constantly. Judge is coming off the toe injury, something he says will require “constant maintenance,” and Aaron Boone has already hinted at regular turns through the DH spot to get Judge off his feet.

"I'll pick my spots probably a little more frequently to get him off his feet with a DH day,” Boone said during a radio interview earlier this month. “As for the other days in center, I'm not worried about it."

Unlike last season, the Yankees have a bona fide backup center fielder. Harrison Bader was the starter last year, though he was frequently hurt. Bader led the team with 76 center field starts. Do you know who was second? It was Isiah Kiner-Falefa. This year the Yankees have Trent Grisham, a two-time Gold Glover, on the bench. I don’t think the Yankees intend to play Grisham only once or twice a week.

Grisham in center does not automatically mean Judge at DH, it should be noted. It could mean Juan Soto at DH and Judge in right. It could also mean Judge in left field, a position he’s dabbled in the last two Spring Trainings, with Alex Verdugo on the bench. Verdugo’s an upgrade over last season’s left field situation (-1.6 WAR!), though he’s the quintessential league average corner outfielder overall. The numbers:

• Verdugo in 2023: .264/.324/.421 (98 wRC+) and +2.0 WAR

• Verdugo ZiPS for 2024: .268/.327/.419 (106 wRC+) and +2.0 WAR

• MLB COF average in 2023: .252/.326/.426 (105 wRC+) and +1.8 WAR/600 PA

Verdugo turns only 28 in May. Hopefully the stars will align and he has a career year at a prime age and with the added motivation of a contract year. That said, you don’t have to try too hard to see Verdugo being meh again, and losing playing time to Grisham (particularly against lefties). Giancarlo Stanton will play a role in this too. If he doesn’t perform, he’ll lose playing time, and Grisham will take some of it. Whenever Grisham does play, he'll play center field.

Let’s not forget about Jasson Domínguez either. He’s expected back in June or July, and although it’s not certain he’ll jump right back into the big league lineup once he completes his Tommy John surgery rehab, I’m sure we’ll see him at some point in 2024, even if only as a September call up. El Marciano is coming to take center field starts away from Judge as well, at least in theory. Fingers crossed his rehab goes well.

And, let’s be honest here, Judge has durability concerns. Some of his injuries have been fluky, like when he slammed his toe into the tiny little sliver of the Dodger Stadium wall that wasn’t padded last year. But some of his injuries aren’t. He’s had multiple oblique strains (2016 and 2019), and he had an abdominal issue this spring. There’s always a chance Judge misses time. I don’t like it, but we have to acknowledge it.

I see Judge starting fewer games in center field than he did in 2022 through a combination of DH time, Grisham’s presence, Domínguez’s return, and injuries. And I’m saying fewer than 74 starts, not fewer than 74 games. Judge starting in right and then sliding over to center after Grisham is removed for a pinch-hitter doesn’t count against me. This prediction calls for fewer than 74 starts in center, not fewer than 74 games.

LeMahieu will have an OBP > SLG season

The Willie Randolph special. Randolph did the OBP > SLG thing in 11 of his 13 seasons with the Yankees, and he’s second all-time with 16 OBP > SLG seasons. He trails only Muddy Ruel, who had 18 OBP > SLG seasons and played from 1916-34. Baseball needs more players named Muddy. In 2023, only one qualified hitter had OBP > SLG: Myles Straw (.301 OBP and .297 SLG). In related news, Straw is on waivers. Slugging under .300 is no way to go through life.

Anyway, LeMahieu turns 36 in July and he has flirted with OBP > SLG a few times in the last few years. In 2021 he finished with a .349 OBP and a .362 SLG. In 2022 it was a .357 OBP and a .377 SLG. Last year he got back to a .327 OBP and .390 SLG, so I guess that’s good, but twice in the last three seasons LeMahieu’s OBP has been within 20 points of his SLG. That puts him on OBP > SLG watch entering 2024.

And to be clear, OBP > SLG does not mean I think LeMahieu will have a bad year. Randolph was a great player! The last Yankee to qualify for the batting title with OBP > SLG was Brett Gardner in 2010. He had a .383 OBP and a .379 SLG. The last Yankee to do it before Gardi B was Wade Boggs in 1993 (.378 OBP and .363 SLG). OBP > SLG doesn’t automatically mean bad. It just means quirky and unusual.

Other than 2019-20, LeMahieu has never really been a power hitter despite sneaky good exit velocities, and he’s not the kinda guy who’s going to leg out hustle doubles. He doesn’t run well enough to do that. Yankee Stadium is a poor doubles and triples park too. That all works against LeMahieu’s SLG. Also, look at the highest walk rates of LeMahieu’s career:

1. 2022: 12.4%
2. 2021: 10.8%
3. 2023: 10.7%
4. 2016: 10.4%
5. 2017: 8.7%

LeMahieu is walking more than ever nowadays. That, combined with power output that is slipping with age, and you have a recipe for an OBP > SLG season. With any luck, it’ll be something like a .375 OBP and a .370 SLG rather than, say, a .330 OBP and a .320 SLG. That’s the prediction though. LeMahieu goes full Randolph with an OBP > SLG season (in however many plate appearances).

Anthony Rizzo will lead the AL in GIDP

Hitting into double plays is as much about opportunity as it is skill. Derek Jeter is 14th all-time in double play grounders because he put a lot of balls in play and frequently put them on the ground. Jeter’s skill set was conducive to GIDPs. Albert Pujols is the all-time leader in GIDPs in part because he was slow, especially later in his career, but also because he was a middle of the order guy who hit with a lot of runners on base.

For this next bold prediction, I’m going to say Rizzo will lead the league in GIDP, and it will be because he’s going to hit directly behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge a ton, and those guys will be on base a lot. Bat with so many runners on base, and GIDPs come with the territory. For what it’s worth, Rizzo’s GIDP rate has been a tick higher than the league average the last few seasons:

• 2019: 11.1%

• 2020: 11.1%

• 2021: 11.6%

• 2022: 9.8%

• 2023: 11.1%

The league average GIDP rate, meaning the rate at which a hitter hits into a double play when there’s a runner at first with less than two outs, has held steady right around 10% the last 10-15 years. For Rizzo, 2022 is pretty clearly an outlier. His true talent GIDP rate is in the 11.1% range, I’d say. A tick higher than the league average, but nothing crazy. Poor Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a career 16.1% GIDP rate (20.0% in 2023!).

Carlos Correa led baseball with 30 GIDPs last year. It was the most since old pal Casey McGehee banged into 31 GIDPs in 2014. No one else hit into more than 25 GIDPs in 2023, and the MLB leader averaged 26 GIDPs in the five 162-game seasons from 2017-22. So figure that’s the target. Rizzo will have to hit into 26 GIDPs to lead the AL this year. His career high is 21 GIDPs back in 2017 with the Cubs.

We can do the math here. To get to 26 GIDPs with an 11.1% GIDP rate, Rizzo will need to hit in 234 GIDP opportunities, which again means a runner on first with less than two outs. Is that a lot? Yes, it is. Ian Happ led baseball with 172 GIDP opportunities last year, and no one has had even 180 GIDP opportunities since Ryan Zimmerman in 2009. I need Rizzo’s GIDP rate to jump and Soto and Judge to go bonkers.

Getting to 26 GIDP in, say, 170 GIDP opportunities requires a 15.2% GIDP rate, and that’s not outrageous. Ronald Acuña, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, Manny Machado, and Christian Yelich all had higher GIDP rates in 2023. And it may not take 26 GIDPs to lead AL anyway. The math isn’t in my favor, and that’s why this prediction is bold. Rizzo will have a strong bounce back season and still lead the AL in GIDP.

The Yankees will trade for a third baseman

Is this too obvious? I don’t think so. I think predicting the Yankees will trade for a starting pitcher would be obvious. That feels inevitable, even if we’re only talking about a J.A. Happ/Andrew Heaney type rather than a more significant Sonny Gray/Frankie Montas swap. Having to trade for a third baseman is flying a little more under the radar, I think, and I’m predicting it will happen at some point before the trade deadline.

The Yankees seem committed to DJ LeMahieu at third base and Oswald Peraza will be back eventually to push for playing time, at least in theory, but the third base depth chart behind them is thin. Thin enough that I expect the Yankees to bring in a third base capable bench guy before Opening Day. That’s about all you can get this time of year though, a bench guy. Not a new everyday player.

I think there’s enough age-related concern with LeMahieu and performance-related concern with Peraza that the Yankees will find themselves in the market for hot corner help this summer. Also, don’t forget LeMahieu is the backup first baseman. Anthony Rizzo is coming off a concussion, has a history of back trouble, and now his lat’s acting up. You needn’t try hard to see LeMahieu having to fill in at first base a bunch.

Which third baseman will the Yankees target? Ideally they would land someone with control beyond 2024, like Ryan McMahon. The dream scenario is the Guardians crashing and burning, and putting José Ramírez on the market. If that happens, the Yankees should move mountains to get him. Here are a few other, more reasonable third base targets:

J.D. Davis, Athletics: Davis hooked on with the A’s after getting released by the Giants and he reportedly turned down (slightly) larger offers elsewhere because Oakland guaranteed him everyday at-bats. He’ll be a free agent after the season, so yeah, easy to see how Davis will be on the trade market in July.

Kyle Farmer, Twins: He’s an expensive utility guy ($6.3M) who can hit lefties (.289/.352/.430 and 117 wRC+ in 2023) and is struck behind a very good infield (Edouard Julien, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis). Sure, Correa and Lewis have injury concerns, but the Twins also have top prospect Brooks Lee coming soon. Minnesota is caught up in the Bally Sports thing and I could see them having to shed Farmer’s money so they can upgrade other parts of their roster at the deadline.

Yoán Moncada, White Sox: Moncada will definitely be available. The ChiSox will be very bad and he has $29M coming to him in 2024 between his salary and option buyout. Chances are they would take little in return just to shed that salary. I can’t say I expect Hal Steinbrenner to approve taking on Moncada’s money given the 110% luxury tax rate, but perhaps he’ll feel differently come trade deadline time.

Isaac Paredes, Rays: Trades within the division are tricky but not impossible. We did just see the Yankees and Red Sox hook up for the Alex Verdugo deal, right? Paredes was on the trade block all winter because he’s getting expensive for the Rays ($3.4M in 2024), and Tampa has top prospect Junior Caminero coming. I would bet against the Yankees trading for Paredes, but he’s definitely available.

Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom, Cubs: Chicago seems committed to Christopher Morel at third base, leaving these two without everyday jobs. Madrigal will be the glove-first utility guy and I guess Wisdom will get platoon at-bats at first, third, and DH? Even with all their new lefties, the Yankees don’t need another high strikeout righty (Wisdom has a 36.9% strikeout rate since 2021), but Wisdom could be available.

I’m not saying the Yankees should or will get one of those specific players. I’m just looking at the landscape and trying to figure out who could be available this year. This bold prediction says the Yankees will trade for a new primary third baseman at some point in 2024, sorta like they did in 2017, when they already had a veteran third baseman (Chase Headley) but brought in a new third baseman (Todd Frazier) anyway.

The Yankees will set a franchise record for pitchers used

The writing is on the wall. Teams cycle through more pitchers than ever these days, including the Yankees, and they’ll be without Gerrit Cole until late May or early June in the best scenario. Cole’s absence leaves a lot – A LOT – of innings to cover. More innings than one pitcher could realistically cover. It’ll take a village to replace the ace, even for only two months. The Yankees know that better than anyone.

On top of Cole’s absence, the Yankees will have to cover for a few bullpen injuries (Scott Effross, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino), and there are injury (Nestor Cortes, Jonathan Loáisiga, Carlos Rodón) and workload (Clarke Schmidt) concerns up and down the staff. The Yankees are not unique in that regard. Every team has questions on their pitching staff. That’s just the reality of baseball in the year 2024.

And don’t forget about the randos. So many randos! Who had Zach McAllister pitching for the 2023 Yankees at this time last year? Anthony Banda, Manny Bañuelos, Luke Bard, Shane Greene, and Chi Chi González all pitched for the 2022 Yankees, and that team won 99 games. Off the radar doesn’t even begin to describe some of the pitchers who will wear pinstripes for an appearance or three this summer.

Six times in franchise history the Yankees have used at least 30 different pitchers in a season, and you will not be surprised to learn they’re all recent:

1. 2022: 33 pitchers
2. 2015: 33 pitchers
3. 2014: 33 pitchers
4. 2023: 32 pitchers
5. 2019: 32 pitchers
6. 2021: 30 pitchers

The all-time record is 42 pitchers – 42! – used by several teams, most recently the 2022 Cubs. I don’t think the Yankees will use that many pitchers (I sure hope they don’t), but I do think they’ll set a new franchise record and use at least 34 different pitchers. And for the purposes of this bold prediction, I am counting any position player pitchers as pitchers. If you need the guy to take an inning, he’s a pitcher.

Austin Wells and Will Warren will both get Rookie of the Year votes

There was a time not too long ago when the Yankees had a top Rookie of the Year candidate every year. Gary Sánchez was the runner-up to Michael Fulmer in 2016, Aaron Judge won the award in 2017, and Miguel Andújar and Gleyber Torres finished second and third (in that order) behind Shohei Ohtani in 2018. Then nothing from 2019-22 before Anthony Volpe got a lone fifth place vote last season.

This season the Yankees have multiple rookies poised to play significant roles. Wells is ready to take over behind the plate – I don’t know what the playing time split will look like with Jose Trevino, but I’m confident Wells will play a lot – and Will Warren is in line to make regular starts. He will not be in the rotation to begin the regular season, though I’m sure he’ll make plenty of starts throughout 2024. That’s just how it goes.

“You see all the stuff play,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch about Warren last week. “He’s got the starter repertoire, a lot of confidence, and a great demeanor on the mound. He’s done a nice job and earned (a chance) to be in this position.”

The AL rookie class is top heavy. The Rangers have two bona fide Rookie of the Year candidates in Evan Carter (he’s still rookie-eligible) and Wyatt Langford, and I’m sure the Orioles will call up Jackson Holliday before long*. The Rays are the type to keep Junior Caminero in the minors long enough to not only delay free agency, but also Super Two. He might not be up until July, cutting into his Rookie of the Year chances.

* The O’s announced Holliday is going to the minors and the Rangers announced Langford made the team within about 15 minutes of each other Friday. That was a fun little juxtaposition. There’s a reason one of those teams is a champion and the other is not.

The top AL rookies behind Caminero, Carter, Holliday, and Langford are … Colton Cowser? Colt Keith? Brooks Lee? It’s not the great crop behind the top guys. Also, all the high profile international players signed with NL teams. We don’t have to worry about Jung-Hoo Lee, Shōta Imanaga, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto swooping in to take Rookie of the Year away from an actual rookie. They’re the NL’s problem.

I expect Wells and Warren to play regular roles this season – Warren’s track record says he needs a bit of an adjustment period each time he moves up a level, but I expect him to figure it out in short order – and to play well enough to get Rookie of the Year support. I’m not saying they’ll win Rookie of the Year or even be among the three finalists. I’m claiming victory even if both get one dinky fifth place vote like Volpe last season.

Offensively, I think Wells has a chance to be a top 10-ish catcher right away. Catchers hit .236/.303/.394 (90 wRC+) last season and only 10 of them managed a 105 wRC+ in at least 300 plate appearances. The bar is low. Recent history suggests you need to turn in 130 innings that are at least league average to get Rookie of the Year consideration. Warren’s the type that can sneak up on people and do that. 

George Lombard Jr. will finish 2024 as the top ranked shortstop in the system

To put it another way, Lombard will be ranked ahead of Roderick Arias at the end of the season. I guess the Yankees could also land a highly regarded shortstop in the draft, though I’m not sure who that would be. The 2024 draft class isn’t great. With all due respect to Keiner Delgado and Enmanuel Tejeda and a few other rookie ballers, this is a Lombard vs. Arias prediction, and I’m predicting Lombard comes out on top in 2024.

In my Top 30 Prospects, I had Arias at No. 6 and Lombard at No. 8, so they’re pretty close in my opinion. The gap is larger at Baseball America (No. 4 vs. No. 8), FanGraphs (No. 4 vs. No. 7), and MLB.com (No. 3 vs. No. 7), and based on the raw tools, Arias screams breakout pick. The kid has power and a cannon arm. Lombard is more about refinement and doing everything well rather than one or two things spectacularly. 

Still, I’m predicting Lombard is the better prospect at the end of the season. And allow me to add that I expect both Lombard and Arias to be top 100 prospects in six months. I’m not predicting Arias will flop. I’m predicting Lombard will have a breakout season that moves him to the top of the farm system. I don’t think he’ll have an 2021 Anthony Volpe breakout, that’s pretty rare, but he’ll have a breakout year nonetheless.

Lombard is still only 18 – he doesn’t turn 19 until June! – but the Yankees believe in him so much that got into nine Grapefruit League games this summer. This organization regularly putting a player that young into Spring Training games tells you they really, really like him. Arias, by comparison, has appeared in only two spring games, and both were split squads. That’s usually how the Yankees handle players this young. Lombard is an extreme outlier.

Here’s what Geoff Pontes (subs. req’d) wrote about Lombard following a recent trip to the backfields in Florida:

The west coast of Florida is loaded with talented shortstops this year with Jackson Holliday, Roderick Arias, Arjun Nimmala, Marcelo Mayer and others all located in that geographic area. A name that should be listed alongside those players is the Yankees George Lombard Jr. A smooth defender at short with good actions, range and a strong throwing arm, Lombard impresses on both sides of the ball. Lombard at the plate worked deep into counts against more experienced pitching in the Double-A game on Wednesday. Lombard ripped a double that came off the bat at 106 mph. It’s a clean and explosive swing, and Lombard showed the ability to identify and track pitches. Lombard has the look of a future Top 100 Prospect, and arguably isn’t far from that grouping now.

Full disclosure: Pontes (subs. req’d) wrote “Arias has the ingredients of a five-tool player at peak” in that same piece. He praised both guys. And again, I’m not here to dump on Arias. He’s legit. I’m just all in on Lombard right now. Some non-Yankees folks I know love him (like, love him), and I’m a fan of the all-around skill set and baseball smarts. I predict a big year for Lombard. And Arias too, but a bigger one for Lombard.

A Yankee will win Comeback Player of the Year

Which Yankee? I do not know, but they do sure have a lot of Comeback Player of the Year candidates, don’t they? It could be Nestor Cortes. It could be Anthony Rizzo. It could be Carlos Rodón or Giancarlo Stanton. It could even be Jonathan Loáisiga if he goes into Terminator mode and saves 50 games, and the voters are feeling frisky. Rizzo’s probably the best bet, right? I’m not going to predict which Yankee will win Comeback Player of the Year. Only that a Yankee will win Comeback Player of the Year. 

Looking around the league, there’s no feel good story that has Comeback Player of the Year on lock, like Liam Hendriks or Trey Mancini coming back from cancer. And that’s good. RAB is anti-cancer. There are also no top pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery. John Means and Casey Mize are the best and Means’ elbow is already acting up again. Jacob deGrom, Luis Garcia, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs aren’t expected back until the second half. Same with Lance McCullers Jr. following flexor surgery.

The top non-Yankee Comeback Player of the Year candidates look to be Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Garrett Crochet, Triston McKenzie, Chris Paddack, Trevor Story, Mike Trout, maybe Alek Manoah, and maybe Anthony Rendon. There are plenty of other Comeback Player of the Year candidates (Vlad Guerrero Jr.?). Those are just the names that jumped out to me while digging through depth charts.

The Yankees have a lot of Comeback Player of the Year candidates and that’s not really a good thing. I’d rather rely on players who aren’t coming back from injury or a down season because chances are players who were hurt and/or bad last season will be hurt and/or bad this season. I expect one (or more!) to break through and have a great year though, and win Comeback Player of the Year.

The Yankees will win more postseason games than they lose

My final bold prediction is multiple bold predictions rolled into one. First, I’m predicting the Yankees will return to the postseason. Second, I’m predicting they’ll win a round, because that’s just how the math works for this prediction. And third, I’m predicting the Yankees will be competitive in at least one round beyond the round they win (unlike 2022), because again, that’s just how the math works.

Winning more games than you lose in the postseason is not some rare accomplishment. Multiple teams do it every year. The Diamondbacks (10-7), Phillies (8-5), and Astros (6-5) all won more games than they lost last postseason despite not winning the World Series. The 2014 Royals went 11-4 in the postseason. That was the best record possible without winning the World Series in the Wild Card Game format.

The Yankees have won more games than they’ve lost in the postseason several times in the Aaron Judge era. Here’s the recap:

• 2017: 7-6 (won Wild Card Game, 3-2 in ALDS, 3-4 in ALCS)

• 2018: 2-3 (won Wild Card Game, 1-3 in ALDS)

• 2019: 5-4 (3-0 in ALCS, 2-4 in ALCS)

• 2020: 4-3 (2-0 in Wild Card Series, 2-3 in ALDS)

• 2021: 0-1 (lost Wild Card Game)

• 2022: 3-6 (3-2 in ALDS, 0-4 in ALCS)

I do think the Yankees are good enough to get to the postseason, though I admit I’m less sure of that now than I was before Gerrit Cole got hurt. If the Yankees win the AL East, I will be surprised. The Orioles have too much talent – they can upscale their roster internally in a way the Yankees just can’t – and I think they’ll win the division. But a Wild Card spot? Sure. One of those is well within reach.

How the Yankees get to that winning postseason record, I will not bother to predict. They could sweep the Wild Card Series and lose the ALDS in five. They could win the Wild Card Series in three, the ALDS in five, and then lose the ALCS in seven. They could win the World Series! How it happens, I do not know or even care to predict. I’m just predicting it will happen. More wins than losses in October. It has been foretold.

* * *

I feel like I cheated you by not making a Juan Soto bold prediction, but the guy is a walking bold prediction. He’s an incredible hitter who will put up incredible numbers, and when he does something dopey in the outfield, he’ll make up for it by doing something incredible in his next at-bat. Soto is so good that he’s almost bold prediction-proof. There’s nothing he can do that would qualify as bold. It’s just him.

I kicked around the idea of Gleyber Torres being the first Yankee other than Aaron Judge to hit .300 with 30 homers since Robinson Canó in 2012, but hitting .300 is hard. Only nine – nine! – qualified hitters hit .300 last season. Go back 10 years to 2023 and 23 qualified hitters did it. I think Gleyber’s about to have a huge contract year, but .300 and 30 felt too bold even for my bold predictions.

I also thought about predictions involving Carlos Rodón (Cy Young votes?), Anthony Volpe (an extension?), Spencer Jones (35 homers in the minors?), and Clarke Schmidt (best Yankees pitcher by WAR?), among others. I didn’t go with those because I don’t believe they’ll happen. I do take this seriously and believe the 10 predictions here are at least possible. They’re not bold for the sake of being bold.

So those are my bold predictions for the 2024 Yankees. We’ll circle back at the end of the season and see how I fared. If I hit on five, I'll be thrilled. If I hit on three, I'll be happy. If I hit on zero, I’ll be mad at myself. The regular season and the bold prediction tracking begins Thursday.