March 22nd, 2024: Montgomery, Judge, Stanton, Weaver, Wells, Mailbag

Juan Soto is no longer the biggest addition the Yankees made this offseason. Earlier this week the Yankees announced all the new vendors and concession items coming to Yankee Stadium, and there will be a Mr. Softee stand(s) in the Bronx this year. They have to play the jingle, right? Have to. I have no idea where the stand(s) will be, but I’ll track it down. Good addition, Yankees. Let’s now get to today’s post. Sorry it’s a little shorter than usual. My bold predictions are coming Monday, plus I’m running short on mailbag questions. So in a way, today’s short post is your fault (I kid, I kid).

1. The latest on the pitching market. Blake Snell is a Giant and Michael Lorenzen, who the Yankees were said to have interest in last week, is now a Ranger. He joined the defending World Series champs on a one-year, $4.5M contract with another $2.5M in incentives the other day. Lorenzen was an All-Star last season and had a 4.18 ERA (4.45 FIP) in 153 innings, and had to take a pay cut from $8.5M.

Jordan Montgomery remains unsigned – he is the only available free agent pitcher projected for even +1 WAR in 2024 – and the Rangers signing Lorenzen could mean they’re out on Montgomery. I’m not sure I buy it. Lorenzen’s not making big money and you don’t let that guy stand in the way of adding a better starter. Either way, Lorenzen’s off the board and Texas has allocated dollars to a non-Montgomery pitcher.

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees and Montgomery are “in contact,” though a gap exists. MLBTR notes that, by waiting until after Opening Day to sign, Montgomery would not be eligible for the qualifying offer after the season, which could factor into the timing of his decision. At this point, why not wait a few more days? If he has to re-enter the market next winter, he’d rather not have the qualifying offer attached.

I have no reason to believe the Yankees will sign Montgomery. At this point, I’ll need to see them agree to pay the 110% luxury tax rate on a significant contract to believe it. Maybe the Yankees are motivated by not having to surrender draft picks and international bonus money to sign Montgomery, but they showed plenty of interest in Snell, so it’s not that big a deal to them. I think they’re just doing due diligence.

Among the veterans on minor league contracts with an upcoming opt out are Chase Anderson, Carlos Carrasco, and José Ureña. Carrasco looks positioned to make the Guardians now that Gavin Williams is hurt. Anderson is very bad (unless he’s facing the 2023 Yankees) and it’s been a while since Ureña has been anything more than, well, the guy you give a minor league deal when you’re short on pitching.

Unless Hal Steinbrenner has a sudden change of heart and is willing to pay the 110% luxury tax rate to sign Montgomery, it sure seems the Yankees will go into the regular season with the pitching staff they have now. Will Warren looks like the favorite to be the No. 5 starter and I’d say Nick Burdi and Luis Gil have locked up roster spots with their excellent springs. Are they enough? We’re going to find out.

2. Grapefruit League observations. Spring Training is too damn long. I understand the players need this long build up period (the pitchers moreso than the position players), but speaking as a fan, I was ready for Spring Training to be over about two weeks ago. Only a few more days until Opening Day. We can make it. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.

Judge returns

Our nine-day national nightmare is over. Aaron Judge returned to the lineup Wednesday night after being sidelined with an abdominal issue since last Sunday. He was scheduled to hit on the field several times during his break but never did, instead opting to do his work inside. Judge ripped a double into the gap in his first at-bat (video) and seemed to be moving well in the outfield. It appears all is well.

“Feeling good. Like I’ve been telling you guys, I’m just excited to get back in there. Get a couple of at-bats, a couple of swings, and get a couple of plays in the field, and get ready for the next game,” Judge told Bryan Hoch after Wednesday’s game. “... I think we’ll be in a good spot (for Opening Day). I’m going to get my work in like I have been for the past couple of weeks, and we’ll be ready to go for Opening Day.”

Judge has only 18 plate appearances this spring (the other regulars are all around 40 plate appearances) and he said he’s going to take a lot of simulated at-bats against pitching machines this weekend. Pitching machine technology is insane now. They can mix up pitches (fastball one pitch, slider the next, etc.) and match a specific pitcher’s arsenal (like that night’s opposing starter, for example) right down to the spin and movement. Nothing replicates live game action, but modern pitching machines can come pretty close.

As planned, Judge did not play Thursday. He is scheduled to play the home games Friday and Saturday – Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce that Judge will play left field Friday (he played left field last spring but not during the regular season) – and then I would assume he’ll rest Sunday, then play in Monday’s Grapefruit League finale. I’m not sure when they're traveling to Houston, but staying in Tampa to get more at-bats (in a minor league game maybe?) during Tuesday’s off-day is possible.

I trust Judge to do whatever he needs to do to get ready for the season, though he may be a little behind timing-wise when the season begins. Baseball-wise, Judge will ultimately be fine. The only question was whether he would be healthy. We went from a planned short day to “mid-spring beat up” to an MRI in the span of three days last week. Based on Wednesday, Judge looks to be in a good place physically. Now he just needs to get ready for the season.

“I haven’t been worried about it really the last week just because I knew they took (an MRI) of it right away and if there’s anything, it’s going to show,” Boone told Joyce. “So I knew right away we’re probably in a good spot. It was just making sure it didn’t turn into something. Definitely good to get him out there and obviously want to build him, get some games under his belt going into the season.”

Up next

The final weekend of Spring Training games is upon us. Here’s what the Yankees have coming up (here’s the spring broadcast schedule):

• Friday vs. Mets: Luis Gil starts and Will Warren relieves (YES)

• Saturday vs. Phillies: TBA (YES app) (split squad)

• Saturday at Tigers: Clayton Beeter (no TV) (split squad)

• Sunday at Pirates: TBA (YES app) (split squad)

• Sunday at Diablos Rojos: TBA (YES) (split squad in Mexico City)

• Monday vs. Mets: TBA (YES) (split squad)

• Monday at Diablos Rojos: TBA (YES app) (split squad in Mexico City)

That is it. Starting today the Yankees will play seven games in four days, then they’re off next Tuesday and Wednesday, then it’s Opening Day in Houston. Spring Training is almost over. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

The Yankees are not sending any big league starting pitchers to Mexico City and those TBAs line up to be Carlos Rodón on Saturday, Marcus Stroman on Sunday, and Clarke Schmidt* on Monday. They’ll all then make their first regular season start with an extra day of rest. I have no idea who the TBAs in Mexico City will be. Cody Poteet? Luke Weaver? Those two games could be chaos given the altitude.

* Schmidt threw a simulated game Wednesday, in case you’re wondering where he’s been.

Does Gil starting with Warren coming out of the bullpen Friday mean Gil, not Warren, is the favorite for the No. 5 starter’s spot? Maybe! I think the pitch counts will tell us more than the order they pitch. If Gil continues his slow march toward 60-ish pitches while Warren continues to get stretched out to 75-80 pitches, then I’d say Warren is still the favorite. Opening Day’s less than a week away. We’ll get the answer soon enough.

(There’s rain in the forecast today and a chance they won’t play. Gil and Warren could pitch Saturday (split squad games? minor league game? sim game?) and remain lined up for the No. 5 spot. Rodón could do his work indoors Friday, or pitch Saturday and make his regular season debut on normal rest rather than extra rest. A rainout would be an inconvenience more than a major disruption to the pitching schedule.)

Miscellany

Giancarlo Stanton has hit 402 career home runs, the most among active players, and yet he’d never had a three-homer game until Wednesday (video). It was the first three-homer game in Spring Training since, uh, Kyle Stowers this past Sunday. But before Stowers, the last was Mike Zunino in 2018. Prior to Wednesday, I thought Stanton was taking some good rips and moving well this spring even if it wasn’t showing up in the stat line. Cautiously optimistic is probably overselling it. I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic about my cautious optimism. “It is cool and it will be erased in about a week,” Stanton told Brendan Kuty about his three-homer game … Nothing new to report on DJ LeMahieu. Kuty says LeMahieu did some light running Thursday but no baseball activity (hitting, taking grounders, etc.). Everyone is hopeful he’ll be ready for Opening Day, but who knows. “I’ve had a good Spring Training. I’ve had plenty of at-bats. It’s not going to take me much to (get ready). I mean, I pretty much am ready already,” LeMahieu told Joyce … Luke Weaver retired nine of the 12 batters he faced Wednesday and had his best velocity of spring (averaged 93.5 mph and topped out at 95.9 mph). He was slowed by a neck issue last week and Weaver throwing only 50 pitches Wednesday means we can safely rule him out of the No. 5 starter’s race. He’ll begin the season as a multi-inning guy in the bullpen … And finally,  Austin Wells is 11-for-26 (.423) with four doubles and two homers since starting his spring 0-for-6 with five strikeouts. He’s hitting .344/.417/.656 during Grapefruit League play. Fingers crossed this carries into the season. I know defense is important, but offense from the catcher position has been sorely lacking the last two years.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Two games into their season, the Dodgers are caught up in a gambling scandal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a bust. I knew the Yankees were smart not to sign him! For real though, Yamamoto will be fine (did anyone pitch well in the Seoul Series?), but the Shohei Ohtani thing has the potential to be very bad. Leagues dove headfirst into legalized betting and it’s only a matter of time until there’s a massive gambling scandal in sports. Ohtani being involved would be the ultimate “me sowing: haha yes! me reaping: what the hell” situation for MLB. The fact the story has already changed from “he was helping a friend” to “the money was stolen” is rather fishy, and an illegal bookmaker getting thisclose to the sport’s biggest star is the kinda thing that will keep Rob Manfred up at night (I recommend Craig Calcaterra’s analysis of all this) … As for the Seoul Series, the games felt like Spring Training games, meaning the players looked like they were still in Spring Training. Sloppy baseball all around. I think these international games are worthwhile for MLB. There just isn’t a great way to do them in Asia. You can’t do it in the middle of the season and you definitely can’t do it after the season. Playing them in Spring Training is the only way to do it. Maybe they should just be exhibition games? I dunno. If you’re going to make that long a trip though, it feels like there should be some stakes to make sure everyone participates and is fully invested … And finally, earlier this week Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) and Jeff Passan reported the MLBPA’s rank-and-file are unhappy with union leadership, particularly deputy director Bruce Meyer, and by extension executive director Tony Clark. They want to install Harry Marino, a former minor league player turned lawyer who spearheaded the efforts to unionize the minor leagues. For the first time in a while, the MLBPA made gains in the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, most notably getting record minimum salary and luxury tax threshold increases, but players are upset about free agency and looking for someone to blame. Once you’ve lost the trust of union membership and it becomes public, it’s over. Meyer and Clark are done. The only question is when will it become official? Still, it seems shortsighted to replace a hardened veteran labor negotiator like Meyer with a neophyte, especially after gaining ground in the CBA. Manfred and top lieutenant Dan Halem must be licking their chops. I was thinking about taking up woodworking during the next lockout, but that’s not very practical. I’ll probably just take a bunch of different cooking classes and see what I like.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Brian asks: I acknowledge this is a crazy email to send, but I don't like Boone hitting Stanton in front of Rizzo. Hope that isn’t a sign of what's to come. He had it right earlier in ST, not sure why DJ being out leads to this switch.

Brian sent this question in a few hours before Wednesday’s game. Giancarlo Stanton then went out and hit three home runs, so Giancarlo must’ve hacked the mailbag inbox and been pissed about what he read. If this is the start of a huge bounce back season, Brian deserves a postseason share. 

Anyway, other than third base, the Yankees played their regulars Wednesday night, and the lineup looked an awful lot like a potential Opening Day lineup:

1. 2B Gleyber Torres
2. RF Juan Soto
3. CF Aaron Judge
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 1B Anthony Rizzo
6. SS Anthony Volpe
7. LF Alex Verdugo
8. C Jose Trevino
9. 3B Kevin Smith

Generally speaking, you shouldn’t read much into Spring Training lineups. The veterans bat up high so they can get their work in and get outta there. This late in camp though, the regulars are playing more often, and we should see something closer to what will be the starting lineup. I mean, that’s the starting lineup, right? If DJ LeMahieu isn’t ready for Opening Day, whoever plays third base will bat ninth, so that’s the lineup.

The Pirates started a lefty Wednesday night (Marco Gonzales) and batting Stanton cleanup against a lefty isn’t a terrible idea. Forget about the three-homer game against the soft-tossing Gonzales. As bad as Giancarlo was last season, he did hit .264/.324/.618 against lefties. He’s always mashed lefties. Against lefties, Stanton cleaning up isn’t a bad idea, though starting pitchers only go so many innings these days, and Judge/Stanton back-to-back is asking to see hard-throwing righties in the late innings.

Against righties, Stanton at cleanup would be terrible. Rizzo needs to hit in that spot and I believe he will. Against lefties, I would be okay with Stanton. I don’t think it’s insane. This was only the March 20th lineup and I don’t want to make too much of a Spring Training batting order. We’ll see what happens when the regular season begins and the Yankees get some games that actually mean something under their belt.

Daniel asks: With DJLM not providing a ton of confidence (comes with age but hey 6 year contract you dopes), what about getting Gleyber some reps at third this year and extending him to be the permanent 3B going forward? The minor league cup runneth over with middle infield options, but not much at the hot corner. 

It’s probably too late to do it this year. If the Yankees were going to give Gleyber Torres some time at third base, they should’ve gone to him with it in the offseason, and given him the winter and Spring Training to prepare. Torres played a little third base in the minors (23 games from 2017-18), but it’s been a while, so it’s essentially a new position. Throwing him out there in regular season games without a chance to really work at it isn’t the best idea.

Going forward, sure, Torres could be a long-term option at third base, and it might even be his best position defensively because it’s a quick reaction position. I love Gleyber, but the guy does make careless errors when he has too much time to think and make a play. At third base, you just react, and maybe that’s best for him. I dunno. Second basemen outhit third basemen in 2023 …

• MLB 2B in 2023: .256/.323/.402 (98 wRC+)

• MLB 3B in 2023: .244/.316/.404 (96 wRC+)

… so Gleyber’s bat would be more valuable at the hot corner, though last season’s numbers are an outlier. Third basemen outhit second basemen every year from 2012-22, often by 10-12 wRC+ points. Put Torres at third and his bat goes from great for the position to merely above average. Maybe the trade-off is worth it depending on his defense, and who the alternatives are at second and third.

Extending Torres with an eye on putting him at third base next year or even a few years down the line is fine with me. He’s probably going to wind up there at some point anyway, right? That's usually how it goes. Players move out of the middle infield and to a corner once they're in their 30s. I think it’s too late to put Torres at third for anything more than a handful of games in 2024. In the future? Sure, why not.

Adam asks: Thoughts on picking up Tony Kemp for the final bench spot?

I’m a Kemp fan. I acquired him as part of my 2021-22 and 2023-24 Offseason Plans. I don’t think he’s a hidden gem or even a starter. I think he’s a nice bench guy and that’s it. He’s walked more than he’s struck out three times in the last four years (including 2023), he runs the bases well, plays second base and left field, and is a high energy player who’s said to be aces in the clubhouse. A good 26th guy, basically.

Now 32, Kemp was in camp with the Reds on a minor league contract – he went 7-for-21 with a homer in Spring Training – and they released him earlier this week. Oswald Peraza’s injury opened a bench spot and DJ LeMahieu’s injury could open another position player spot as well. LeMahieu’s availability for Opening Day is in question. We should probably bet against it. Bone bruises can take a while to heal.

The Yankees most need to add depth on the left side of the infield and that’s not Kemp. He’s second base and left field only. Still, the Yankees could use Oswaldo Cabrera as their backup left-side-of-the-infielder and then carry Kemp as their last bench player. That would require LeMahieu being healthy, or the Yankees bringing in a third base type to fill-in while LeMahieu’s sidelined. There is a way for Kemp to work.

We know the Yankees were looking at bench upgrades even before LeMahieu and Peraza got hurt, and they reportedly had interest in Kemp at one point over the winter. They could circle back now that the Reds have released him, and he’s freely available. With LeMahieu beat up, the Yankees may prefer someone who could step in at third base if needed. That’s the real question. What do they want from that roster spot?

Jonas asks: With the Yankees still looking for a backup infielder, and the news of DJ’s foot injury, are there any worthwhile players on minor league contracts that will likely opt out before the season begins? Josh Harrison was the name most recently reported. Surely there are others in a similar situation that might soon become an option, right?

There are others in that situation, though these aren’t the most desirable players. These guys are on minor league contracts for a reason, and that’s because they’re journeymen and/or at the end of the line. Here are the non-first base infielders known to have opt outs this spring:

• Elvis Andrus, Diamondbacks

• Matt Duffy, Rangers

• Eduardo Escobar, Blue Jays

• Mike Moustakas, White Sox

• Kolten Wong, Orioles

There are others with opt outs, I’m sure, but those are the only ones we know about (Josh Harrison already opted out and Tony Kemp got released a few days ago). Moustakas can’t really play third base anymore, Wong only plays second, Duffy’s hit .251/.307/.317 (75 wRC+) in almost 500 plate appearances the last two years, and Escobar can’t handle velocity these days. Andrus is the best of the bunch.

This weekend will be busy. After a player uses his opt out, the team has 48 hours to add him to the 40-man roster or release him, and that all has to happen within five days of Opening Day. So expect to hear about opt outs and releases and all that these next few days. The Yankees need an infielder and it feels inevitable that they’ll add someone from outside the organization. The opt out market is the easiest way to find that player, not that you’re going to find a great player here.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)