February 16th, 2024: Effross, Trivino, Andrews, Groshans, Trevino, Prospects To Know, Mailbag

Twenty years ago today – 20! – the Alex Rodriguez trade was finalized. It was agreed to on Feb. 14th, Bud Selig approved the money on Feb. 15th, and it was announced 20 years ago today on Feb 16th, 2004. That was before the days of MLBTR and your phone having access to the entirety of human knowledge. I found out about the trade when I saw it on ESPN’s bottom line at an Applebee’s. A simpler time, that was. Here now is Friday’s post as Juan Soto talks to young players at the Yankees’ academy in the Dominican Republic.

1. Spring Training news and notes. Spring Training is up and running and the YES Network will air all 17 Grapefruit League home games. Three of the 17 are YES app only broadcasts, but we’ll be able to watch every home game this spring. As for road games, we’ll have to rely on the other team’s broadcast, and those haven’t all been announced yet. The first spring game is next Saturday. One week and one day away.

Everyone who is supposed to be in camp is in camp – Jonathan Loáisiga was a day late because his flight got canceled, but he’s in Tampa now and threw as scheduled Thursday – and the position players will arrive Monday. Aaron Boone held his start of spring press conference Wednesday. Here’s the video if you’re interested, though it was the usual Spring Training platitudes. Nothing you haven’t heard before.

“We’re hell-bent on being a champion,” Boone said. “We understand very well that last year was not anything anyone in this organization wants or demands or expects. I would say we have poured into that, from ownership to the front office to the coaches and staff, all the way to the players. I do feel like we have prepared properly … We gotta go show the world that we’re as good as we think we can be.”

Several pitchers have already faced hitters in live batting practice, including Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón, and Marcus Stroman. Here’s Stroman facing Austin Wells. That’s about it so far. You know how it is with the early days of Spring Training. We get all excited baseball is here … and then we all remember how painfully boring these first 7-10 days can be. Games are only a week away though. That’s good.

The Yankees announced some injury news on the first day of camp – it could be worse, the Orioles are dealing with Kyle Bradish (elbow), Gunnar Henderson (oblique), and John Means (elbow) injuries already – and made a few roster moves. Here’s a quick recap before we really dive in:

• RHP Lou Trivino signed to a one-year contract with a club option for 2025.
• LHP Clayton Andrews acquired from Brewers for RHP Joshua Quezada.
• IF Jordan Groshans claimed off waivers from Marlins.
• RHP Scott Effross placed on 60-day injured list (for Andrews)
• OF Jasson Domínguez placed on the 60-day injured list (for Trivino).
• LHP Matt Krook designated for assignment (for Groshans).

Three new additions to the 40-man roster and three moves to clear spots. None of those additions figure to be especially impactful, at least not in 2024, but it’s still a lot of moves for the early days of Spring Training. Let’s dig in now and see what’s what.

Effross sidelined following back surgery

Over the winter I thought it was weird Matt Blake was being cagey about Scott Effross’ health, and sure enough, Effross will miss the start of the season. The good news: his arm is healthy. The bad news: he had back surgery in December. “Cyborg at this point,” Effross jokingly told Greg Joyce about his new body parts. He’ll be out of action a while. Going on the 60-day injured list means he can’t return until May 26th.

“That set (his Tommy John surgery rehab) back a little bit,” Boone said about the back surgery. “He’s begun his throwing program – I think last week – but it’s a little convoluted because you’re finishing off Tommy John and then you throw the back into the mix. It’ll be a slow ramp up.”

Effross, 30, was excellent with the Cubs and Yankees in 2022, throwing 56.2 innings with a 2.54 ERA (2.46 FIP) and very strong under-the-hood numbers. He had Tommy John surgery that October and will go something like a season and a half between MLB games. Effross is in the “whatever he gives the Yankees this year is a bonus” bucket for me. I’m not counting on him contributing.

The Yankees have an open bullpen spot now and auditions will begin soon. These seven guys are bullpen locks as long as they’re healthy:

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes
• Setup: LHP Caleb Ferguson, RHP Jonathan Loáisiga
• Middle: LHP Victor González, RHP Ian Hamilton, RHP Tommy Kahnle
• Long: RHP Luke Weaver

Candidates for that last bullpen spot include Ron Marinaccio, Cody Morris, Nick Ramirez, and a bunch of kids (Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gómez, etc.) and non-roster types (Yerry De Los Santos, Duane Underwood Jr., etc.). The other day I said not to sweat the lack of bullpen flexibility because these things take care of themselves, and here you go. Effross’ bullpen spot is now a revolving door spot.

“I think we have a ton of talent with guys that will play meaningful roles in our bullpen that maybe aren’t on our roster yet, even on the radar yet,” Boone said. “I’m excited about the talent we have in this organization, whether it’s minor league free agents we’ve brought in, guys with big league time that aren’t necessarily on the roster. I do feel like we have a deep group to compete and battle for meaningful roles.”

The Yankees are on a long losing streak with trades – if Juan Soto doesn’t end it, then it might be time for an exorcism – and granted, Hayden Wesneski hasn’t been good for Chicago, but this is another trade that went bad because the player the Yankees received hasn’t performed. Injuries happen, especially with pitchers, but it is a results-based business and the Effross trade has yet to provide the desired results. Hopefully he will later this year.

Domínguez to the 60-day IL

No surprise here. Jasson Domínguez had Tommy John surgery last September and is expected to return in June or July, or thereabouts. According to Bryan Hoch, Domínguez began his throwing program this past Monday, and he is scheduled to start swinging a bat in two weeks. I doubt we’ll see him in any Grapefruit League games. That’s the latest on El Marciano. Rehab is going well so far.

Trivino returns

My favorite free agent signings are the ones we don’t find out about until the guy shows up in the clubhouse in Spring Training. Tuesday morning it was reported that Lou Trivino had a locker in Tampa. Later in the day Boone said the Yankees were “considering certain things” and that Trivino was not a player under contract. A few hours later, the Yankees officially announced the signing.

"I told everyone if I just show up, they have to give me a contract,” Trivino joked (per Gary Phillips). Joel Sherman has the contract details:

• 2024: $1.5M salary plus $100,000 each for 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 games
• 2025: $5M club option
• 2025 base salary increases $200,000 each for 15, 20, and 25 games in 2024
• $150,000 each for 25 and 30 games finished in 2025

Incentives for games finished, eh? Not sure if those were the team’s idea or Trivino’s idea, but there’s a little extra money in his contract in case he winds up closing next year. He closed for the Athletics a few years ago and Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Caleb Ferguson will all be free agents after the season.

Anyway, Trivino, 32, had Tommy John surgery last May and the Yankees non-tendered him in November rather than pay him a projected $4M or so through arbitration. The Yankees wound up keeping him at less than half his projected salary, and they didn’t have to commit until Spring Training, when Trivino was further along with his Tommy John surgery rehab and they had a better handle on his progress.

This is a Major League deal. Trivino is on the 40-man roster, though the Yankees will put him on the 60-day injured list whenever they need a 40-man spot next. You can’t put a player directly on the 60-day injured list. Trivino had to be added to the 40-man roster and someone had to go to clear a spot for him. You can’t skip a step. You have to be on the 40-man first to go on the 60-day injured list.

The timing of the surgery means Trivino is likely to return in July or August, maaaybe June if things really go well with his rehab since he doesn’t have to get stretched out. He’s already thrown three bullpen sessions and he had to pass a physical to sign his contract, so everything is on track. Trivino’s healthy, or at least as healthy as someone can be 10 months out from elbow reconstruction.

Trivino has been rock solid for a long time now, and he had a 1.66 ERA (3.34 FIP) in 21.2 innings with the Yankees after coming over in the Frankie Montas trade. With any luck, Trivino’s rehab will go smoothly and he’ll give the bullpen a nice shot in the arm in the second half. And if things do go well, it’s not hard to see that 2025 option getting picked up. Let’s get through 2024 before we worry about 2025 though.

“I’ve really, really enjoyed my time as a Yankee,” Trivino told Phillips. “I was pretty, pretty – I wouldn’t say devastated – but it sucked last year. I really thought I’d be able to help the team out, and the fact that I went down almost immediately sucked. But I’m happy to be back and contribute in some way.”

Who is Andrews?

The Yankees cut one lefty reliever Tuesday (Krook) and traded for another Wednesday (Andrews). Milwaukee designated Clayton Andrews for assignment last week when they signed Jakob Junis, so the return wasn’t anything great. Joshua Quezada, 19, was an international signing out of Nicaragua in 2023. He had a 3.69 ERA (3.96 FIP) in 46.1 innings in the Dominican Summer League last year.

As for Andrews, the 27-year-old is undersized (listed at 5-foot-6 and 160 lbs.) and his big league debut last season was rough. Rough as in 11 runs in 3.1 innings. He was very good in Triple-A though, throwing 57 innings with a 2.53 ERA (3.57 FIP) and strong strikeout (31.1%), ground ball (45.7%), swinging strike (16.1%), and average exit velocity (85.0 mph) rates. Few too many walks (13.0%), but that’s the automated strike zone for you. Andrews is a reliever. He’s spent his entire career in the bullpen.

Andrews works primarily off his mid-90s four-seamer and low-80s changeup. He also has a slider with very high spin rates, though it is his third pitch. Missing bats and limiting exit velocity in Triple-A is worth a roll of the dice. Perhaps the Yankees can coach Andrews up and turn him into the next great bullpen find, but the Brewers are pretty good with pitchers. Not sure you’ll outsmart them.

With two minor league options remaining, Andrews should be a fixture on the Scranton shuttle this year. Caleb Ferguson and Victor González are locked in as the top two bullpen lefties – neither can be sent to Triple-A – so Andrews will be an extra who comes up when a fresh arm is needed. Between Andrews, Ferguson, and González, chances are one will be as good and as trustworthy as Wandy Peralta, right? I hope so.

Who is Groshans?

The roster churn continues. The Yankees claimed Jordan Groshans, the No. 12 pick in the 2018 draft, off waivers from the Marlins on Tuesday. The shine has been off a while though and the Blue Jays traded him to the Marlins for Anthony Bass, Zach Pop, and a player to be named at the 2022 trade deadline. Groshans made his MLB debut later that year and went 16-for-65 (.262) with a homer. He spent all of last season in the minors.

In close to 1,000 Triple-A plate appearances, Groshans is a .253/.350/.332 (83 wRC+) hitter with nine home runs and good strikeout (16.7%), walk (12.8%), and swinging strike (8.6%) rates. There is more to life than hitting for power, but a .332 SLG in over 900 Triple-A plate appearances isn’t gonna cut it. The contact quality numbers (exit velocity, etc.) are poor too. This Triple-A heat map is capital-B Bad:

These days Groshans is primarily a third baseman who can also play first. He played shortstop earlier in his career, but no longer. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Groshans the No. 9 prospect in Miami’s system entering 2023, then he hit .243/.339/.330 (74 wRC+) in a full season in Triple-A, and they left him out of their top 40 Marlins prospects entirely this spring. Here is last year’s write-up:

Scouts believe in his ability to hit because he has short arms that help him get to pitches on the inner half and has the timing in his swing to make plenty of contact. He doesn't show much raw power during batting practice, so scouts have had a difficult time figuring out his profile. Groshans is not likely to stick at shortstop, and all his time in the big leagues came at third base. If that's his future home, then he needs to make more impact on contact. He has plus arm strength and enough quickness and range for the hot corner defensively, but some scouts have questioned his mobility to the point that they believe his likeliest outcome is in left field.

I assume the Yankees have something in mind to try to unlock Groshans’ power, kinda like what they did with Gio Urshela a few years ago. I can’t say I’m optimistic, but breakouts can happen at any time, and all this move cost the Yankees was the $50,000 waiver fee and potentially Krook. It’s not like the Yankees have a top prospect lined up to play third base in Scranton anyway (sorry, Tyler Hardman).

As for Krook, he’s already 29, but he’s left-handed and optionable, making him a candidate to get claimed on waivers. Surely one of the other 29 teams is willing to roll the dice on a lefty with a 27.7% strikeout rate and a 57.4% ground ball rate in 249.1 career Triple-A innings. I hope Krook clears waivers and stays with the Yankees as a non-40-man player, but eh, not sure it’ll happen. Maybe the Yankees can trade him.

(The Groshans claim happened before the Yankees were able to put players on the 60-day injured list, hence the Krook DFA. They couldn’t put Trivino on the 60-day injured list for Groshans because a) Trivino was not signed yet, and b) the 60-day injured list wasn’t available to the Yankees yet.)

The Yankees made six waiver claims this offseason (Groshans, Diego Castillo, Jeter Downs, Matt Gage, Oscar Gonzalez, Bubba Thompson) and have been more active on the bottom of the 40-man market than at any point in recent memory. I think it has to do with all the open 40-man spots this winter. That’s unusual for this team. The Yankees had flexibility, so they grabbed anyone they felt was the tiniest of upgrades.

(The Phillies DFAed Castillo earlier this week. I’d rather have Castillo than Groshans because he’s more versatile and performed better in Triple-A. Maybe the Yankees will claim Castillo again and DFA Groshans to make room, and continue rotating guys through the 40th spot on the 40-man roster.)

Trevino slowed by calf strain

This isn’t listed above because there’s no actual roster move, but Jose Trevino had a calf strain a few weeks ago and will be brought along slowly in camp. He’s coming back from wrist surgery, remember. Trevino has resumed workouts and catching drills (here he is doing agility stuff) and Boone said they expect him to be ready for Opening Day, but you know how it is. Boone downplays every injury.

“Responding really well, so he’ll just be a little slow,” Boone said. “... He probably won’t be available the first couple of weeks of games, but he’s doing well.”

It's the middle of February. The Yankees are smart to slow play things following the wrist surgery and calf strain. Those are two injuries you can easily reaggravate and turn them into something bigger that sidelines Trevino for a chunk of the regular season. Calves in particular can be fussy. Those strains can linger. No need to push it now. Still plenty of time to get Trevino ready for Opening Day.

Ben Rortvedt seems to be out of options and he doesn’t have a place on the roster as long as everyone is healthy, but this is why he’s still a Yankee. In case a catcher gets hurt in Spring Training. He knows the pitching staff and has MLB experience, and you’d rather have someone like that cover for an injury than, say, Carlos Narvaez. Nothing wrong with hanging onto catching depth. Get well soon, Trevy.

“Around the league, that’s a challenge for a lot of teams, catching depth,” Boone said. “I do feel like right now, the group of catchers we’ve assembled, we feel really good about. There will be a lot of competition, guys pushing one another, because we do feel like we have some really good options. I’m excited where Austin Wells is.”

2. Five prospects worth knowing. Spring Training is underway and there is no better time of year to watch prospects. I published my annual Top 30 Prospects List last week and my top five prospects, and nine of my top 13 prospects, will be in big league camp this year, either as 40-man roster players or non-roster invitees. It’ll be a good spring for prospect watching.

In addition to my Top 30 list, I also ran my Not Top 30 Prospects last week, and looked at the six prospects who fell out of this year’s Top 30 for whatever reason. Now I want to wrap up my annual prospect jaunt by highlighting five prospects who are worth knowing even though I don’t consider them among the system’s best. They’re prospects I feel like writing about, basically, so let’s get into ‘em.

IF Caleb Durbin

Date of Birth: Feb. 22nd, 2000 (age 23)
Acquired: Lucas Luetge trade with Braves (Dec. 28th, 2022)
2023 Stats: .304/.395/.427 (132 wRC+), 4 HR, 36 SB, 8.9 BB%, 6.2 K% (291 PA in A+, AA)

Durbin fits the scrappy, gritty, gamer who plays with a chip on his shoulder profile to a T. He’s a small guy (listed at 5-foot-6 and 185 lbs.) who digs in and really battles through at-bats. Almost 1,300 players batted at least 250 times in the minors last year. Here are the lowest strikeout rates:

1. Ernie Clement, Blue Jays: 5.0%
2. Caleb Durbin, Yankees: 6.2%
3. David Fletcher, Angels: 6.3%
4. Xavier Edwards, Marlins: 6.9%
5. Eliezer Alfonso, Tigers: 7.0%

Durbin’s 5.4% swinging strike rate was also one of the 25 lowest in the minors. The Yankees helped him improve his contact quality last year – Durbin, right-handed hitter, set a new career high in max exit velocity several times – and part of that was just being more selective. Chasing fewer pitches out of the zone equaled fewer weak ground balls, upping his average exit velocity.

Primarily a second baseman, Durbin has enough defensive chops to play short and third competently. This is a textbook utility infielder skill set. Durbin’s going to put the ball in play, run like hell (he nearly tied the Arizona Fall League stolen base record), make the plays he’s supposed to make defensively, and be a fan favorite because he plays with a lot of energy. He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee.

C/1B Rafael Flores

Date of Birth: Nov. 7th, 2000 (age 23)
Acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent (July 25th, 2022) (bonus unknown)
2023 Stats: .259/.346/.366 (100 wRC+), 8 HR, 3 SB, 11.3 BB%, 24.9 K% (434 PA in A+)

If you have talent, teams will find you. Flores played college ball at Rio Hondo College in Los Angeles and summer ball for the Alaska Goldpanners in 2022. The Goldpanners are an independent team that barnstorms around Alaska and Western Canada, and essentially plays whoever will play them. The Yankees saw Flores that summer and liked him enough to sign him.

Flores is a big dude (listed at 6-foot-4 and 220 lbs.) with very good top-end exit velocities, though he does most of his damage against fastballs. Anything with spin can flummox him. Flores frames well and is a good thrower with a quick release, and an adequate blocker. He played more first base (57 games) than catcher (33 games) last season because Top 30 Prospects Agustin Ramirez and Antonio Gomez spent time at the same level and were the priority.

There’s a chance at a dingers-and-defense backup catcher here. Flores is not a finished product, and the Yankees will need to give him more game action behind the plate than they have to fully develop him, but he frames well and he hits the ball hard. You don’t have to do much more than that to have a shot at a big league career given how low the bar is at catcher these days. Flores is an interesting deep sleeper.

RHP Jack Neely

Date of Birth: June 5th, 2000 (age 23)
Acquired: 2021 11th round, No. 333 overall ($150,000 bonus)
2023 Stats: 2.17 ERA (3.16 FIP), 38.6 K%, 7.7 BB%, 35.1 GB% (66.1 IP in A+, AA)

Not including rookie ball because pitch data is unreliable down there, Neely led the minors with a 20.0% swinging strike rate last year (min. 60 innings), and his 259 batters faced were the second fewest among the 293 minor leaguers with at least 100 strikeouts in 2023. He spent most of the year with High-A Hudson Valley and a late season promotion to Double-A was rough (four homers in 17.2 innings), but hey, strikeouts!

Neely is a monster on the mound (listed at 6-foot-8 and 245 lbs.) and he’s a pretty standard 95-and-a-slider reliever. He used close to a 50/50 fastball/slider split last year. It’s control (strikes) over command (quality strikes), but Neely is around the zone. He’ll start 2024 back with Double-A Somerset and should get to Triple-A Scranton at some point, setting up an interesting 40-man roster decision after the season. Neely is the best pure relief prospect in the system if you still consider Cody Morris a starter.

C Edgleen Perez

Date of Birth: May 25th, 2006 (age 17)
Acquired: Signed March 2023 out of Venezuela (bonus unknown)
2023 Stats: .259/.389/.317 (102 wRC+), 0 HR, 5 SB, 17.1 BB%, 17.7 K% (175 PA in DSL)

Dominican Summer League catchers are an incredibly risky group – Engelth Urena, a Not Top 30 Prospect last year, missed 2023 with a knee injury – because catching is hard and so many players this age won’t be able to do it long-term, so they wind up at other positions. Perez is the kinda twitchy athlete you don’t normally see behind the plate. If catching doesn’t work out, second or third base might, or a corner outfield spot.

Perez is not very big (listed at 5-foot-10 and 155 lbs.) and he doesn’t have much power, but the bat-to-ball ability is very good and he’s promising defensively because he receives well and can throw. There’s no need to think about a position change yet. The contact skills and athleticism are an excellent foundation. Perez figures to be a long-term development project though. We’re talking a 2030 ETA or so.

RHP Danny Watson

Date of Birth: Oct. 6th, 2000 (age 23)
Acquired: 2021 15th round, No. 453 overall ($125,000 bonus)
2023 Stats: 1.58 ERA (3.66 FIP), 32.7 K%, 10.0 BB%, 37.6 GB% (62.2 IP at A+, AA)

Watson grew up a Yankees fan in Albany and he is unique. He’s listed at 6-foot-7 and 235 lbs. and he’s a sidearmer. He went from low three-quarters in college to sidearm early in his pro career to even lower than that at one point, but Watson eventually settled on sidearm because that’s where he’s most effective and most comfortable. (Watson told Randy Miller that Greg Weissert helped him iron out his arm slot.)

From that funky low arm slot comes a low-90s fastball and big sweeping slider that has among the most horizontal movement in professional baseball, MLB included. He also has a cutter that doesn’t really do a whole lot for him. For all intents and purposes, Watson is a fastball/sweeper guy with a low release point despite being so tall.

These unusual arm slot relievers are more prevalent than ever – the Rays seem to have a low slot guy who chews up righties out of their bullpen every season – but they typically have to prove themselves at each level. And even then they’re not guaranteed to get a look right away. Fair or not, traditional arm slot guys tend to be the first in line for a call up, so Watson must continue proving himself.

Watson threw 38.1 innings for Double-A Somerset last year and he might start 2024 back there because of the Triple-A numbers crunch. He should get to Triple-A Scranton at some point this year though. Watson will have to pitch well – very well – to work his way not only into call up consideration, but into the 40-man roster mix after the season. He and Neely will be Rule 5 Draft eligible next offseason.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Corey Kluber retired last week and the Yankees are already talking to him about an advisory role, according to Erik Boland. Not gonna lie, Kluber struck me as the kinda guy who would disappear into retirement once he was done playing. He lives somewhere in the vicinity of Tampa Bay and has already been at the minor league complex working with players, so that’s cool. I’m all for bringing great players aboard in advisory roles. Kluber taught Mike King his sweeper and it can’t hurt to have a two-time Cy Young winner well-versed in pitching analytics working with your pitchers … According to Jesse Rogers, MLB is planning to “strictly enforce” the obstruction rule this season, meaning when the fielder impedes the runner (interference is the opposite, that’s when the runner interferes with the fielder). Obstruction most often happens at second and third bases and on tag plays, like when the fielder blocks the bag with his leg. When obstruction is called, the runner will be ruled safe and awarded the base. Unlike the foreign substance ban, when the enforcement waned because umpires got lazy, the ramped up obstruction enforcement should stick because it's an easy call. No additional effort is required on the part of the umpire. Either way, anything that promotes more aggressive baserunning and offense in general is a-okay with me … Have you seen the new uniforms? Nike introduced a new design this year that improves fit, breathability, moisture resistance, etc. They’re made from 90% recycled materials too, so they’re environmentally friendly. But holy crap, they look cheap. The 2023 jersey is on the left and the 2024 jersey is on the right:

It looks like a giveaway jersey, not a Major League Baseball uniform. It’s not just the look either. There are fewer pants sizes available, so the players have to squeeze into something that isn’t custom fitted. Players have complained about the new uniforms enough that the MLBPA is getting involved, according to Stephen Nesbitt (subs. req’d). MLB doesn’t seem to care about anything looking cheap as long as the check clears, so we’ll see what comes of this. Paul Lukas explained who’s responsible for what with the new uniforms, if you want more info … In other jersey news, the Yankees will not get a City Connect uniform this year. Earlier this week MLB announced nine teams are getting new City Connects this season (including the Dodgers replacing their previous City Connect) and the Yankees are not among them. By the end of 2024, the only teams without City Connects will be the Athletics and Yankees, and I assume the A’s don’t have one yet because the owner is trying to relocate and fans are boycotting the team. Hal Steinbrenner did not completely close the door on City Connects last summer, but he didn’t seem overly enthused about the idea either. As soon as the money’s right, the Yankees will have City Connects. It is the way of the world … Last but not least, Don Gullett passed away this week. He was 73. I wrote a Remembering a Random Yankee post about him a while back. Gullett won four straight World Series with the Big Red Machine and the Yankees from 1975-78. Going into that 1978 season, Gullett was only 27 and he owned a career 105-48 record and a 3.10 ERA. He was one of the best pitchers in the game. Eight starts later he hurt his shoulder and never pitched again. It’s incredible and sad how many talented pitchers got hurt and were never the same. Think of all the young pitchers who have Tommy John surgery these days, often before they make their MLB debut. Back in the day they were just done. They got hurt and that was it. Rest in peace to one of the greatest careers lost to injury.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jon asks: Dumb hypothetical- let’s say any of Bellinger, Snell, or Montgomery are available for a convoluted opt-out contract that everyone perceives as essentially a one-year contract. Since we’re making stuff up, let’s say they’re all equivalent luxury tax hits. Who would you want for this 2024 Yankees team?

In order, I would rank them Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger. I would happily take any of the three on a short-term contract – Bellinger is not a perfect fit given the current outfield situation, but it wouldn’t take the Yankees long to figure out how to make it all work – but I would go with Snell. Marcus Stroman stabilizes the rotation enough that I prefer Snell’s upside over Montgomery’s steadiness. Without Stroman, the Yankees would have a greater need for innings, and Montgomery’s the better bet to provide them. With Stroman, the Yankees are better positioned to roll on the dice on pure upside, and Snell’s upside is as high as anyone’s. We saw it last year. Snell’s non-Cy Young years are pretty good (3.85 ERA and 3.44 FIP in the four years between Cy Youngs) and his great years are great. Give me him.

Alessandro asks: After reading your Top 30 Prospects List and seeing that Dominguez wasn't completely off limits I started wondering: What do you think the long-ish term plan is with the Yankees OF? I know the actual plan is that these things have a way of working themselves out, but in a perfect world, the Yankees will have Judge and Soto locked up long term. That leaves one OF spot for Dominguez and Jones, with Stanton's contract on the books and in the lineup through potentially 2027. Do you think one of them is more likely trade bait than the other? Or is it more likely that Jones isn't ready until around 2026, at which point the Yankees may be more ready to cut ties with Stanton?

I’ve noted this before: the Yankees owe Giancarlo Stanton $98M over the next four years, and $64M of that will be paid the next two years. They owe him only – “only” – $34M from 2026-27, which seems firmly in “release him if he’s unproductive” territory. The Yankees ate roughly $27M to release Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hicks, and Alex Rodriguez. In two years $34M could be the new $27M.

In that case, Stanton’s a goner after 2025 and the MLB outfield is (hopefully) Jasson Domínguez, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto. Spencer Jones spends 2024 in Double-A and 2025 in Triple-A, then maybe factors into the 2026 mix. By then, we might be having the “is it time to move Judge to first base?” conversation. How’s this look? (This ignores Everson Pereira. Sorry for leaving you out, Everson.)

Failing to re-sign Soto would open the door for a Judge/Domínguez/Grisham outfield in 2025, perhaps with Pereira getting time too. Jones could debut later that season as long as things go well. The Yankees could also pursue an extension with Verdugo (eh), or sign a free agent like Anthony Santander next offseason.

I think the long-term master plan is a four-man outfield/DH rotation with Domínguez, Jones, Judge, and Soto. Stanton could be out of the picture come 2026, and if Judge (or Soto?) has to move to first base, then the Yankees will do that and adjust the outfield and DH picture as necessary. I would think Jones is more likely to be traded than Domínguez, but who really knows. It depends on what you’re getting in return as much as anything.

You all know how quickly these things can change. Do you remember what the outfield was on Opening Day 2022? It was Hicks in center, Judge in right, and Joey Gallo in left. The Yankees traded for Harrison Bader and Andrew Benintendi later that year too. Trying to map out the 2026 outfield in 2024 is a fool’s errand. We know Judge will be there. Other than him, it’s up in the air. Even Domínguez isn’t a lock.

Michael asks: Since the O's are now owned by two billionaires, why are they still able to get Competitive Balance treatment? There is nothing small market about them anymore. Do you think that the Competitive Balance concept will be revisited?

Every single team is owned by billionaires. The Orioles are just transferring from one billionaire to another. Competitive Balance draft picks are extra picks given to small market teams and the O’s will have one in this summer’s draft. They had one last draft, the draft before that, the draft before that, on and on.

There is a definition of “small market” for these Competitive Balance picks. They go to the bottom 10 teams in market size and the bottom 10 teams in revenue. There is overlap between those two groups, so there are only 14 Competitive Balance picks each year, not 20. The teams change too. The Padres used to get a Competitive Balance pick, but no longer. Their revenue is too high these days.

The rules get tweaked every Collective Bargaining Agreement, but no, they’re not going to be reworked just because the Orioles are good now and have a new owner who figures to spend more than the previous owner. The O’s are bottom 10 in market size, so the get Competitive Balance picks will keep coming.

David asks: I was just looking at Reggie Jackson's BBRef page and I noticed he still holds the career record for most strikeouts as a hitter. Jim Thome made a valiant effort, but couldn't catch him. Adam Dunn flunked out of baseball before he could get there. Given the way the game has evolved, I'm very surprised that no active player is remotely close to catching him. Among active players, who do you think has the best shot, and do you think they'll actually get there? I thought about Judge and Stanton as obvious candidates but I doubt either will get enough ABs.

Reggie led the league in strikeouts five times and his career 22.7% strikeout rate was well north of the MLB average 13.9% strikeout rate when he played. Set the minimum to 7,500 plate appearances, and here are the all-time leaders in K%+ (i.e. strikeout rate relative to league average, in this case the bigger the number the higher the player’s the strikeout rate):

1. Tom Brown: 210 K%+
2. Babe Ruth: 190 K%+
3. Jimmie Foxx: 185 K%+
4. Bobby Wallace: 178 K%+
5. Reggie Jackson: 174 K%+

Ruth’s career 12.5% strikeout rate was nearly double the 6.9% league average when he played. Do you think people complained he strikes out too much back then? I’m sure of it. People have been complaining about guys striking out too much since the day the sport was invented.

Giancarlo Stanton is the active leader with 1,820 strikeouts, comfortably behind Reggie’s 2,597. Stanton has four years remaining on his contract and would need to average 194 strikeouts per season to catch Jackson. His 162-game average is 192 strikeouts, though that rate would probably be north of 200 in his decline years. Still, Stanton’s a long shot to catch Reggie given his inability to stay on the field.

Aaron Judge has 1,038 strikeouts. He’s entering his age 32 season and he’s not even halfway to Reggie. J.D. Martinez (1,573), Freddie Freeman (1,535), and Mike Trout (1,458) are high on the active strikeout leaderboard and they're not catching Reggie. Ronald Acuña has 666 strikeouts entering his age 26 season, so that’s a nice head start, though he cut his strikeout rate to 11.4% last season. He may not whiff enough in his prime to get there.

Maybe Bryce Harper has the best chance to catch Reggie? He reached the big leagues at 19 and is at 1,395 strikeouts entering his age 31 season. Harper has eight years remaining on his contract and would need to average 151 strikeouts per year to catch Jackson. His 162-game average is 150 strikeouts. Harper seems like the best active candidate to catch Reggie as long as he stays healthy.

Strikeouts are a funny one because the all-time leaders are all great, great players. Jackson is the all-time leader, then it’s Jim Thome, Adam Dunn, Sammy Sosa, Alex Rodriguez, and Miguel Cabrera. That’s two Hall of Famers, one future Hall of Famer, two guys who would be in the Hall of Fame if not for PEDs, and a guy who had six 40-homer seasons. You better be good to stay in the lineup while striking out this much.

Dan asks: Any thoughts on the mayor of Las Vegas telling the A's to stay home in Oakland? I personally think that's hilarious, given how this whole thing has played out between the ballclub and the city of Oakland.

It was funny, yes. In case you missed it, last week Las Vegas mayor Carolyn Goodman said “I personally think they've gotta figure out a way to stay in Oakland and make their dream come true." She walked those comments back a few hours later, though this seems like a case of her saying how she truly felt during her podcast appearance, then walking it back only after the powers that be complained.

Usually when a team relocates, there is a ton of excitement and anticipation in the new city, and that just isn’t happening here. The Las Vegas chamber of commerce had an event regarding the A's last month and the crowd had no juice whatsoever. Watch the video. It’s cringy but also hilarious. The chamber of commerce folks are the people ramming the deal through. They’re supposed to be excited, but nope.

I think that, ultimately, the Athletics will move to Las Vegas, but this is not going smoothly. They’ve missed multiple deadlines to release stadium renderings and owner John Fisher hasn’t secured his part of the funding yet. Also, the A’s don’t know where they’re going to play from 2025-27, between the end of their lease at RingCentral Coliseum and the tentative opening of their new ballpark in Las Vegas.

These are pressing matters. MLB needs to build the 2025 schedule – teams usually have a preliminary schedule to review by now, but MLB can’t generate it until they know where the A’s are playing next year – and they have to start construction (including tearing down the hotel that currently sits on the proposed ballpark site) on their new stadium fairly soon to hit that 2028 opening target. Things are not going smoothly at all.

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