February 8th, 2024: Non-Roster Invitees, Not Top 30 Prospects, Mailbag

Spring Training begins next week and my annual Top 30 Prospects List runs tomorrow. Baseball is fast approaching. On that note, the 2024 PECOTA standings projections were released earlier this week. They have the Yankees atop the AL East at 94 wins, well north of the second place Blue Jays at 88 wins. Focus on the range of outcomes more than the win total. That better captures the upside and downside of each roster. Anyway, here is Friday morning’s post Thursday morning since tomorrow is Top 30 Prospects day.

1. Yankees announce non-roster invitees. Pitchers and catchers report in less than a week and the Yankees finally announced their non-roster invitees Tuesday. Those are the non-40-man roster players who get to hang around big league camp (40-man roster guys are in big league camp automatically). Here are this year’s non-roster players (full-size image):

Hey, I did pretty good. I predicted 24 non-roster players and the Yankees are bringing 26 to camp, including Allen and Torrens, who were not in the organization at the time of my post. In addition to those two I missed Durbin, Gerber, Lockridge, Rumfield, and (Art) Warren. I had Edgar Barclay, Tyler Hardman, and Bubba Thompson (who was later lost on waivers) in my prediction, plus two TBA spots. I whiffed on them.

Gerber and (Art) Warren are apparently healthy. The Yankees signed both to minor league contracts back in 2022 (here are my Gerber and Warren posts), when they were rehabbing from elbow injuries, and it seems they’re good to go now. The Yankees did the rehab and evaluate thing with Jimmy Cordero following his Tommy John surgery and got 30-something good innings out of him. Maybe they’ll get the same from Gerber and/or Warren this season. We’ll see what they look like in camp.

Otherwise the notables are the top prospects: Hampton, Jones, Rice, and (Will) Warren. Warren pitched well in Triple-A last season and could be as high as seventh on the rotation depth chart. He was a no doubt non-roster guy. The other three were a little more up in the air because they’ve yet to play above Double-A. I thought they would get the invite and they did. Can’t wait to see them. Hopefully Jones does what Jasson Domínguez did last spring (.455/.520/1.045 with four homers). That was a blast.

Not much else to say about this year’s non-roster invitees. The prospects I thought would be there will be there, and there are no surprises. That’s good. Surprises can be bad, like when Carson Coleman looked like a slam dunk non-roster guy last year, yet he wasn’t on the list when it was announced. Turned out he hurt his elbow during an offseason throwing session and needed surgery. The non-roster players are in. Now we wait for camp to begin.

2. 2024 Not Top 30 Prospects. Pitchers and catchers report next week and that means it's prospect season here at RAB. My annual Top 30 Prospects List will run Friday morning, and today we’re going to dig into my Not Top 30 Prospects. These are not prospects 31-35. They are merely five prospects outside the Top 30 who I think could jump into next year’s list with a strong developmental season in 2024.

Two of last year’s Not Top 30 Prospects made this year’s Top 30. That’s a good outcome for this exercise even though the game is rigged and I can rank anyone anywhere I want. Again, these are not prospects 31-35. They are five prospects who are trending up but are not quite Top 30 caliber yet, at least in my eyes. Here are this year’s Not Top 30 Prospects, listed alphabetically.

RHP Jerson Alejandro

Date of Birth: Feb. 23rd, 2006 (age 17)
Acquired: Signed Feb. 2023 out of the Dominican Republic ($409,000 bonus)
2023 Stats: 4.50 ERA (4.81 FIP), 22.9 K%, 10.8 BB%, 46.7 GB% in 36 IP (DSL)

First things first: Alejandro is a massive human. His 18th birthday is still two weeks away and yet he is listed at 6-foot-6 and 255 lbs. Sheesh. Watch some video and yeah, Alejandro definitely looks that size. Physically, he was a man among boys in the Dominican Summer League last year, and he should make the jump to the Florida State League this coming season (after Extended Spring Training).

Alejandro works anywhere from 92-98 mph with his fastball and it’s more of a two-seamer that runs back to his armside than a straight four-seamer. His best secondary pitch is a hard changeup, and the Yankees scrapped his curveball and taught him a slider that works better for his arm slot and off his fastball. It’s all still inconsistent. The changeup doesn’t always fade and the slider isn’t always sharp.

Throwing strikes can be a challenge for Alejandro because he has so much body to control and can fall out of sync with his mechanics. Alejandro was the closest of these five players to making the Top 30. The difference between him and the rookie ball arms who did make it is the ease of the operation, the quality of the secondaries, and Alejandro being maxed out physically. You can’t easily project more velocity. That said, his arm talent is undeniable and his upside is among the highest in the system.

RHP Chalniel Arias

Date of Birth: Sept. 11th, 2003 (age 20)
Acquired: Signed Nov. 2021 out of the Dominican Republic (bonus unknown)
2023 Stats: 3.09 ERA (2.92 FIP), 31.1 K%, 8.7 BB%, 54.5 GB% in 46.2 IP (DSL and FCL)

A late international amateur signing in 2021, Arias went from the Dominican Summer League bullpen in 2022 to the Dominican Summer League rotation early in 2023 to the Florida Complex League rotation late in 2023. He struck out 54 batters and walked only nine in 38 DSL innings to earn that promotion last year. I assume Arias will return to the FCL in 2024, though he could see Low-A Tampa at some point.

Arias is a wiry 6-foot-3 and 165 lbs. and he’s mostly 92-94 mph with a good slider right around 80 mph. It’s a traditional slider, not a sweeper, and Arias locates it well off the plate away to righties. He has the makings of a changeup too. Given his age and size, the hope is Arias will grow into more velocity and more physicality the next few years, and jump a grade or two stuff-wise.

SS Dexters Peralta

Date of Birth: July 11th, 2007 (age 16)
Acquired: Signed Jan. 2024 out of the Dominican Republic ($500,000 bonus)

The Yankees have some excellent names in the system. They added Dexters to Jasson (Domínguez), Brando (Mayea), Jeter (Downs), Jorbit (Vivas), and Roc (Riggio), among others. The Yankees signed Peralta as part of their 2024 international class last month. As best I can tell, his bonus was their third largest behind Francisco Viloria ($1.75M) and Richard Matic ($850,000).

I had more than one non-Yankees person bring up Peralta unprompted when I was begging for intel for the Top 30. Those conversations typically involved them asking “have you heard about this Dexters kid? our people love him” with no further information coming my way. Fortunately, Ben Badler (subs. req’d) listed Peralta as a potential breakout prospect who signed for under $1M. Here’s part of his write-up:

(Peralta) has taken off over the past year. He has grown to a still lean 6-foot-2, 165 pounds, a high-waist build with tons of strength projection remaining. A switch-hitter, Peralta has a compact, fluid swing from both sides that generates loft with good bat-to-ball skills and hard contact now with the potential for average or better power given his bat speed and how much room he still has to pack on size. He’s a plus runner and a good athlete who moves around well at shortstop.

That’s all I have on the kid. This might be a year too early to list Peralta as a Not Top 30 Prospect – consider this a blind faith “ranking” – but there’s enough buzz around him that I’ll be bold and list the kid who has been a professional baseball player for precisely 24 days. Expect Peralta to spend this season in the Dominican Summer League. The Florida Complex League is at least a year away.

OF Gabriel Lara

Date of Birth: Nov. 27th, 2005 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed Jan. 2023 out of the Dominican Republic ($30,000 bonus)
2023 Stats: .267/.401/.411 (123 wRC+), 4 HR, 18 SB, 15.4 BB%, 16.5 K% in 182 PA (DSL)

Lara is the fastest player in the organization and one of the fastest in the minors. That speed allows him to run down everything from gap to gap in center field. A left-handed hitter, Lara understands who he is as a player and employs a slash-and-dash approach while taking his walks. He’s on the small side at 5-foot-9 and 165 lbs., though he’s sneaky strong and can put a mistake in the seats.

The Yankees typically have their non-elite international signings spend two years in the DSL, so Lara could return to that level in 2024 despite his solid performance last year. It wouldn’t be a bad thing. He just turned 18 and it’s a big jump from the DSL to the Florida Complex League. Getting a little stronger and maturing as a player would put Lara in better position to make that jump in the future.

RHP Cade Smith

Date of Birth: April 9th, 2002 (age 21)
Acquired: 2023 6th round, No. 192 overall ($282,900 bonus)

The Yankees have a thing for grabbing lesser heralded college pitchers in the middle rounds of the draft and developing them into quality prospects. That pipeline includes Richard Fitts, Chase Hampton, Ken Waldichuk, Will Warren, Hayden Wesneski, and a few others. Smith could be next following a three-year career at Mississippi State. He struck out five in 3.2 hitless innings at the 2021 College World Series.

When healthy, Smith runs his fastball in the 92-95 mph range with premium movement (induced vertical break, etc.). He’s sat in the upper-90s in shorter bursts out of the bullpen and really overwhelmed hitters. A hard mid-80s slider is his go-to secondary pitch. Smith also has a curveball and a changeup, with the changeup lagging as a fourth pitch. His command needs work. Strike-throwing isn’t a strength.

Smith missed a month with an unknown injury last spring and his velocity was down before the injury, so it seems likely it was something with his arm. His velocity returned after the injury though, and he pitched well to close out his college career. As they do with every drafted pitcher these days, the Yankees shut Smith down after the draft, and sent him to Tampa for pitch design and biomechanical work.

It was evident right away Hampton and Warren had taken a leap after their post-draft work (Waldichuk and Wesneski lost their first pro season to the pandemic, their situation was unique). Fitts was more of a slower burn. Smith’s Opening Day assignment will tell us a lot. If he goes straight to High-A Hudson Valley, he’s leveled up. If he starts with Low-A Tampa, then the leap wasn’t quite as big.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Some quick roster and hot stove housekeeping. First, infielder Diego Castillo was claimed off waivers by the Phillies. What was your favorite part of Castillo’s 17-day second stint with the Yankees? And second, Robert Murray says the Yankees are among the teams with interest in Tony Kemp and Jon Morosi says they continue to have interest in Gio Urshela. I signed Kemp as part of the Offseason Plan. If the Yankees are kicking the tires on Kemp and Urshela, it means they’re open to adding to the bench, and presumably sending Oswaldo Cabrera to Triple-A. Maybe the Yankees could snag Whit Merrifield for the bench? Probably not, but he’d fill the Cabrera role nicely.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jon asks: What's more likely to happen in 2024? (1) Stanton has a comeback year, however you'd define that, but is a meaningful bat in the lineup; or (2) Rodon has a comeback year, however you'd define that, but is at least a serviceable #3 starter in the rotation.

I have to go with Carlos Rodón. They’re both significant injury risks, and you could balance Rodón being a pitcher (and thus more at risk of getting hurt just from doing his job) with Stanton being three years older and further into his decline. Photos of both guys looking slimmed down have popped up in recent weeks, but meh. Best Shape Of His Life stories do nothing for me.

Early in the offseason I wrote about both Stanton and Rodón, and what to expect moving forward. Stanton struggled against velocity last year and he’s chasing more, which can be signs of a slowing bat and slowing reactions in general. The numbers on Rodón’s stuff (velocity, movement, etc.) were surprisingly good in 2023 and in line with 2021-22. He just located poorly and was more prone to hard contact.

To answer the question, I’ll go with Rodón. Stanton is further into his decline and it’s really hard to reverse things once you have trouble catching up to velocity. Rodón’s stuff was good last year. His execution stunk, and that seems like it would be easier to correct than Stanton getting his swing and approach recalibrated. Hopefully both get on track. Force me to pick one, and I’ll say Rodón.

Warren asks: Bobby Witt Jr. Can you put this extension through the extension framework you just did? With the opt outs and relative performance this seems like a massive overpay / huge bet on future performance improvements compared to where a Tatis etc set the top end of the market.

For a team like the Royals, which has not ranked in the top half of the league in payroll basically ever, and has averaged 21st in payroll since their 2015 World Series win, this is their only way to keep a star player. They’re not going to win a free agent bidding war for Juan Soto or whoever. If they develop a player like Witt, they have to assume risk to keep him, and this is the price. Otherwise he’s a goner in a few years.

Witt’s contract is 11 years and $288.7M with opt outs after Years 7, 8, 9, and 10, and a three-year club option worth $89M. The deal can max out at 14 years and $377.7M. Witt was still four years away from free agency and that is the peak “extend our star player” service time level. Here are the largest guarantees for position players who were four years away from free agency:

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres: 14 years, $340M (Feb. 2021)
2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: 11 years, $288.7M (Feb. 2024)
3. Buster Posey, Giants: 9 years, $167M (March 2013)
4. Mike Trout, Angels: 6 years, $144.5M (March 2014)
5. Yordan Alvarez, Astros: 6 years, $115M (June 2022)

Based on what Posey got a decade ago and what Tatis got more recently, Witt’s contract is market value for a franchise player four years away from free agency. And there is a chance Witt opts out at the first opportunity, and this is really a seven-year deal worth $148.7M. That’s firmly in the Alvarez range.

The Royals have been active this offseason in addition to extending Witt – are they the only AL team to improve their roster more than the Yankees? I think so – and they signed free agents like Seth Lugo, Hunter Renfroe, and Michael Wacha, among others. According to FanGraphs, they have the highest luxury tax payroll in the AL Central! Can they actually win the division? Probably not, but they’re trying.

Also, keep in mind Royals owner John Sherman is trying to get a new ballpark in downtown Kansas City. He’s investing in the roster and trying to energize the fan base, and also the lawmakers who hold the keys to the taxpayer money he wants. It’s the opposite of A’s owner John Fisher. Fisher stripped down his roster and said “see? we need a new park to contend!” I prefer Sherman’s method, even if it is self-serving.

Witt’s contract is risky because that’s just how it goes with long-term deals. They’re all risky. I contend that a long-term deal for a player like Witt, who is still only 23 and is so obviously talented, is less risky than a long-term deal for an established free agent who is deeper into his career. The Royals are paying handsomely, no doubt, but it was their only way to keep him beyond his six years of team control.

Paul asks: Bobby Witt Jr's extension got me thinking about HOF trajectories and team changes. I'm not sure how to easily look this up, but I'm curious, how many members of the HOF (if any) have played for 3 different teams by age 25? And Soto has the potential to reach 4 teams by age 26! His career is unique, but would he be in a HOF league of his own by playing for that many teams at such a young age?

It is unprecedented. Craig Goldstein (subs. req’d) did the legwork after the Juan Soto trade and found no Hall of Famer since integration played for three different teams before their age 25 season. Gary Sheffield and Sammy Sosa would have qualified had they been elected to the Hall of Fame, but they weren’t. Also, Soto was far more productive through his age 24 season than those two:

• Juan Soto: +28.6 WAR
• Gary Sheffield: +7.6 WAR
• Sammy Sosa: +5.4 WAR

Sheffield was a bit of a headache and not the most coachable player early in his career, which contributed to him moving around so much. Sosa was young and unproven when he was included in trades for big name players (first Harold Baines, then George Bell). He then figured things out with the Cubs.

Soto was an established star both times he was traded. First he was traded as part of a rebuild (the Nationals also traded Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, etc.), then he was traded as part of a cost-cutting move that was necessitated by outside factors. The Padres’ lost their Bally Sports television deal last year, they had to get back into compliance with MLB’s debt service rules, etc.

With Soto, it’s a case of the right player being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Him moving around should not be read as a character flaw, meaning his previous teams wanted to get rid of him. The Nationals tried to extend him, he said no, so they did what they had to do to advance their rebuild. Soto was the only big money Padres player without a no-trade clause, so he was traded.

Hopefully the Yankees are the end of Soto’s travels and he goes into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee, and he’s the last player to wear No. 22 in pinstripes. Until he signs on the dotted line though, yeah, there’s a chance Soto will wind up on a fourth team by his age 26 season. Hard to believe, really.

A different Paul asks: If you could add any current MLB player to the Yankees for 2024 only, who would you choose?

I’m torn between a starting pitcher and a third baseman. On one hand, the Yankees could really use one more starting pitcher. I would happily add Logan Webb or Spencer Strider to the rotation. On the other hand, aging DJ LeMahieu and unproven Oswald Peraza at third base makes me a bit nervous, and plopping José Ramírez or Austin Riley at the hot corner would rule so much.

I am going to way overthink this and say José Ramírez with the rationale that there don’t figure to be many good third basemen available at the deadline – maybe the Yankees can pry Ryan McMahon loose? – but there are always starters available. Jordan Montgomery, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and others were traded last deadline. The year before it was Montgomery, José Quintana, etc.

Other than signing Matt Chapman (which has its merits), how else could the Yankees get a top tier third baseman other than poaching one through Paul’s hypothetical? Consider the top third basemen by 2024 ZiPS projections:

1. José Ramírez: +5.2 WAR
2. Gunnar Henderson: +4.8 WAR
3. Alex Bregman: +4.7 WAR
4. Austin Riley: +4.7 WAR
5. Manny Machado: +4.1 WAR
6. Matt Chapman: +4.0 WAR
7. Rafael Devers: +3.9 WAR

Unless they sign Chapman, the Yankees do not have access to a single one of those players. They are not available. Look at the starters though, and you can see how Dylan Cease (+3.4 WAR) or Triston McKenzie (+3.1 WAR) or Shane Bieber (+3.0 WAR) could be available at the deadline. And, of course, Blake Snell (+3.1 WAR) and Montgomery (+2.9 WAR) are still unsigned, just like Chapman.

I think the Yankees are better off adding a top third baseman using Paul’s hypothetical and figuring out the pitching later than they are grabbing a pitcher and figuring out third base later, because it’s hard to see any above-average third basemen being available later. There are always starters available at the deadline. They aren’t cheap, but they’re out there. Third basemen? Not so much.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)