Quick thoughts after the Yankees acquire Caleb Ferguson

The Yankees have their Wandy Peralta replacement. On Monday, the Yankees acquired left-hander Caleb Ferguson from the Dodgers for lefty Matt Gage and rookie ball righty Christian Zazueta. It’s the second Yankees-Dodgers lefty reliever trade of the offseason, joining the Trey Sweeney for Victor González and Jorbit Vivas deal a few weeks ago. The Ferguson trade has been announced and is official.

Ferguson, who is still only 27, is a two-time Tommy John surgery guy (2014 and 2020), and he’ll be a free agent after this coming season. He’s a rental. Last season he threw 60.1 innings with a 3.43 ERA (3.34 FIP), though the Dodgers used him as an opener seven times, and he got hit around in that role. That includes one especially rough outing in Coors Field. Here are Ferguson’s 2023 splits:

• as SP: 6.75 ERA (5.51 FIP), 14.7 K%, 8.8 BB%, 40.0 GB% in 6.2 IP
• as RP: 3.02 ERA (3.07 FIP), 27.5 K%, 8.5 BB%, 50.7 GB% in 53.2 IP

Ferguson is a mid-90s four-seamer and upper-80s cutter pitcher. He also has a slider he doesn’t use very often (67% four-seamers and 31% cutters in 2023). Ferguson threw a curveball as recently as 2022, though this interview with David Laurila from October suggests his arm slot wasn’t right after his second Tommy John surgery, so the Dodgers had him scrap the curveball and go four-seamer/cutter.

The BABIP gods were not kind to Ferguson last season (.364 after .284 from 2018-22) and they bit him against both lefties (.373) and righties (.360). He has never really dominated lefties, though last season’s .266/.356/.392 line is an outlier compared to the rest of his career. Ferguson is more or less platoon neutral, which is good news. The Yankees can use him against righties thanks to that cutter.

The Yankees have been hoarding relievers with power sinkers in recent years, though that’s only partially correct. What they’ve really been hoarding is the ability to limit hard contact. Power sinkers are the best way to do that, but not the only way. Ferguson is a great contact manager. Here’s the 2022-23 barrel rate leaderboard (min. 50 IP):

1. Gregory Santos: 0.9%
2. Jonathan Loáisiga: 1.9%
3. Clay Holmes: 2.1%
4. Pete Fairbanks: 2.9%
5. Tyler Rogers: 3.0%
6. Caleb Ferguson: 3.1%
(MLB average: 8.1%)

In the late innings, the Yankees want weak contact and they want it on the ground. No home runs and no extra-base hits in general. Ferguson fits the preferred bullpen profile well even though he doesn’t throw a sinker. He's able to keep the ball off the barrel with cutters away from lefties and in on righties, and miss bats with elevated four-seamers to all hitters.

Because Alex Vesia struggled last year and spent part of the season in Triple-A, Ferguson was LA's go-to lefty. His leverage index was essentially tied with closer Evan Phillips for the team lead, so he pitched in a lot of tight situations. The Yankees won’t be asking Ferguson to do anything he hasn’t done before. He's used to matching up against the other team’s top lefties.

Ferguson and the Dodgers avoided arbitration with a $2.4M contract last month. He’s cheap and shouldn’t stand in the way of doing anything else. With the trade completed, this is the bullpen as things stand:

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes
• Setup: LHP Caleb Ferguson, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jonathan Loáisiga
• Middle: RHP Scott Effross, LHP Victor González, RHP Ian Hamilton
• Long: RHP Luke Weaver
• Depth: LHP Matt Krook, RHP Ron Marinaccio, RHP Cody Morris, LHP Nick Ramirez

A small issue with that bullpen is a lack of roster flexibility. Effross and Hamilton are the only members of the projected Opening Day bullpen who can be optioned to Triple-A. Shuttling guys in and out won’t be quite as easy, but this will take care of itself through injuries, poor performance, whatever. This is one of those things we fret about on Feb. 5th and then it becomes a non-issue by, like, April 10th.

The Yankees claimed Gage off waivers last week and it’s not often you see a guy claimed one week and traded the next. That’s an MLB The Show move. Seems to me the trade is Ferguson for Zazueta, and the Dodgers had Gage thrown in so they could jump the waiver line to make sure they got him. The Yankees were going to have to DFA someone to make room for Ferguson anyway, and Gage seemed likely to go.

(Gage going from the Blue Jays to the Astros to the Yankees to the Dodgers on waivers within the year is a pretty good sign there’s something there. Smart teams keep picking him up.)

Zazueta, 19, was a $110,000 signing out of Mexico during the 2022 international signing period. He was not going to be in my upcoming Top 30 Prospects List (nor the Not Top 30 Prospects). When it was initially reported the Yankees were sending a rookie ball pitcher to the Dodgers, I was worried a Top 30 write-up was going to wind up in the Content Graveyard. When it was reported it was Zazueta, I did the Denzel GIF.

Zazueta had a 3.29 ERA (4.59 FIP) with 23.6% strikeouts in 52 Dominican Summer League innings last season. He was repeating the level. Eric Longenhagen had Zazueta as a deep honorable mention in his Yankees prospects list a few weeks ago, saying he “currently has a rise-and-run upper-80s fastball” and “has the pitch movement foundation to break out if he can throw harder as he matures.”

The Yankees get a good rental lefty reliever and the Dodgers get an up-and-down lefty who can maybe be more than that (based on the teams that keep acquiring him) and a lottery ticket prospect. Seems like a good trade for the Yankees, no? Los Angeles turned around and signed Ryan Brasier (two years and $9M!) to replace Ferguson in the bullpen, so that’s part of the calculus for them.

Relievers are flying off the board now and the timing makes it seem like the Yankees waited to see whether anyone would jump on one of their “low” offers, and when that didn’t happen, they got Ferguson. There is still room for another starting pitcher, for sure, though it seems unlikely at this point. Between Ferguson, González, and Morris, the Yankees did good work replenishing their bullpen depth this winter.