February 2nd, 2024: Burnes, Peralta, Snell, Loáisiga, Allen, Mailbag

Reminder: My annual Top 30 Prospects List will go live next Friday (one week from today). I wrote the 30th player capsule this past Monday, which has to be the earliest I’ve ever finished them. Now I’ll spend the next week hoping the Yankees do not trade any of the 30 players. Wait until after the post goes live, please and thank you. Other than that I just need to write the intro, organize things, and read through it a few times. Almost done. Here now is today’s post. (Patreon is on a weird formatting kick. Please bear with me if the paragraphs are spaced too close together or too far apart.)

1. O’s land Burnes. The Angelos family is selling the Orioles and it did not take long for the new owners to make their mark. The O’s landed one year of Corbin Burnes in a four-player trade with the Brewers late Thursday night. Well, three players and one asset is a better way to describe it. Here’s what Milwaukee received for their ace and the Yankees’ equivalent:

• SS Joey Ortiz: Oswald Peraza (MLB-ready defense-first shortstop)
• LHP DL Hall: Luis Gil (live arm that might wind up in the bullpen because of walks and injuries)
• Competitive Balance Round A draft pick: George Lombard Jr.?

That draft pick is currently No. 34 overall, though it could get pushed back a few spots depending where the remaining qualified free agents sign. Lombard, last year’s No. 26 pick, is in the ballpark of No. 34, though last year’s draft was considered much deeper than this year’s. Lombard might be a bit rich there, but eh, doesn’t really matter. This is hypothetical anyway.

The Brewers did better than the draft pick they would have received when Burnes left as a free agent after the season, but it is an underwhelming return. Good reminder that prospect lists don't really matter. All that matters is how the team evaluates players, and Milwaukee must really like Ortiz and Hall.

Baltimore won 101 games last season thanks to some insanely clutch hitting – they had a 128 wRC+ in both high leverage situations and with runners in scoring position – and that’s the kinda thing that’s hard to repeat. They outperformed their BaseRuns by 12 wins, easily the most in baseball. Counting on that again wasn’t smart and the rotation was an obvious area to improve.

In Burnes, the O’s get one of the best pitchers in the game for one year. Like Juan Soto, Burnes is a Scott Boras client and a year away from free agency, and he’s said he’s unlikely to sign an extension. Still, one year of Burnes helps a lot! It’s time for the Orioles to go all-in. Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson won’t be this cheap forever, and they couldn’t keep all those infield prospects.

Obviously the Burnes trade lowers the Yankees’ chances of winning the AL East, though I didn’t think their chances were great to begin with. In the big picture, there are six postseason spots per league, and one of the six AL spots figured to go to the O’s with or without Burnes. Adding Burnes is more about improving the World Series odds once they get to the postseason. Not simply making the postseason.

So now the Yankees will face Burnes up to four times this coming regular season, and that’s a bummer. You may remember him throwing eight no-hit innings at Yankee Stadium last year. Baltimore should go out and sign Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell too, and really drop the hammer. They still have a $100M-ish payroll even after adding Burnes at close to $16M. The money is definitely there. Will they spend it?

As for the sale, the Angelos family is selling to billionaires Mike Arougheti and David Rubenstein for $1.75 billion (Cal Ripken Jr. is part of the new ownership group as well). Arougheti and Rubenstein are buying 40% now and the other 60% when Peter Angelos dies, which a) is incredibly morbid, and b) will save the Angelos kids hundreds of millions in capital gains tax. (Peter is 94 and medically incapacitated.)

It’s felt like selling the team has been the plan for a while now (or at least I thought so). Hard to explain ownership’s disinterest in investing in the roster otherwise. The new owners haven’t officially taken over yet, though typically the incoming owner has input into roster moves and spending while in this transition period (Steve Cohen did the Mets). I don’t think the timing of the sale and the trade is a coincidence.

You could always count on the Angelos kids to hold the Orioles back with their complete lack of spending. The new owners aren’t guaranteed to spend, though the Burnes trade is a pretty good indication they are willing to support the team better than the Angeloses. Baltimore has an incredible young core. Adding an owner that is willing to spend is bad news for the Yankees and the rest of the AL East.

2. Latest roster news and hot stove rumors. Got another round of roster moves and non-Corbin Burnes hot stove happenings to pass along. Here’s the latest in Yankeeland.

Wandy heads to San Diego

The Wandy Peralta era is over. Peralta is heading to the Padres on a four-year, $16.5M contract with three opt outs, reports Ken Rosenthal. Three opt outs! Good for Wandy. Kinda feels like Padres GM A.J. Preller said “well, if this doesn’t work out, it’ll be the next GM’s problem, so let’s do it.” Wandy will join Jhony Brito, Mike King, and Randy Vásquez (and eventually Drew Thorpe) on San Diego’s pitching staff.

The Yankees were said to have interest in re-signing Peralta, but on what amounts to a one-year contract with three player options that limit the upside and increase the downside? I can’t blame them for passing. (Wandy turns 33 in July. He’s not young.) As I wrote in my farewell post, there were red flags in Peralta’s 2023 performance, specifically his sudden susceptibility to home runs and struggles with righties. Chances are the Yankees got the best years of Peralta’s career.

That all said, Wandy’s departure leaves a big void in the bullpen. He was firmly in the Circle of Trust™ and had shown he is unflappable even in the most pressure-packed situations. Who does Aaron Boone trust to match up against, say, Rafael Devers or Gunnar Henderson in high leverage situations now? Beats me. The lefty reliever depth chart looks something like this:

1. Victor González
2. Matt Gage (who?)
3. Nick Ramirez
4. Anthony Misiewicz (non-roster invitee)
5. Matt Krook

The best available free agent lefty relievers are guys like Scott Alexander, Brad Hand, and Aaron Loup. They’re best equipped to be the second lefty in a bullpen, not the go-to. I suppose the Yankees could go the trade route (one of the Marlins guys?), though the Yankees typically try to buy low on relievers rather than pay full value. (Hayden Wesneski for Scott Effross is the only exception in the last 3-4 years.)

Effross and Tommy Kahnle have been very good against lefties in their careers, Jonathan Loáisiga too, but some hitters just aren’t as good against lefties. You need that look. The Yankees have earned the benefit of the doubt with bullpens, so maybe González will emerge as the new Wandy. I would still prefer they bring in a more established lefty though. So long, Wandy, you sweet prince. His xFUN was off the charts.

Yankees have “moved on” from Snell

The Yankees have apparently pulled their offer and “moved on” from Blake Snell because they were unable to bridge the gap with Scott Boras, according to Bob Klapisch. “(Hal) Steinbrenner has moved on,” Klapisch heard from a source. Snell and Gerrit Cole were seated next to each other at the BBWAA awards dinner this past weekend to get their Cy Youngs. “Who got a hold of this seating chart?” Cole joked.

Depending who you ask, the Yankees offered Snell $150M across either five or six years, or less than they gave Carlos Rodón last offseason. Rodón’s first season with the Yankees was a disaster, though that’s not Snell’s problem. Why should he take less than what he believes he’s worth from the Yankees just because their last big money pitcher signing went bad? $150M across 5-6 years is respectful offer but not a great one in my opinion.

I’m not sold on the Yankees having sincere interest in Snell. I mean, they offered the guy $150M, so they did have real interest to some extent. But others like Rodón and Aaron Nola received larger contracts in recent years. Kinda feels like if Snell and Boras said yes to the $150M, the Yankees would have taken him because they consider that good value. But, if Snell pushed for more, they’d walk away, which they apparently have.

Acquiring Juan Soto is a great move. He’s one of the best players in the league. But the next best offseason additions are Marcus Stroman and Alex Verdugo? The non-Soto portion of the offseason has been a bit underwhelming, which doesn’t mean bad. According to Cot’s, the luxury payroll is up only $8M from last year. After an 82-80 season, I was hoping the Yankees would be more active and add more players who meaningfully improved their 2024 outlook. Shrug.

Loáisiga may move into multi-inning role

Here’s an interesting one. Matt Blake told Gary Phillips the Yankees could slide Jonathan Loáisiga into Mike King’s old multi-inning setup man role (Blake also mentioned Ian Hamilton as a candidate for that role). Loáisiga has had a ton of arm injuries throughout his career and part of the thinking is a more regimented pitching schedule and a set routine could help keep him on the field, sorta like being a starter.

“You could see Loáisiga kind of slide into a little more of that length role potentially to try and keep him on the field more consistently,” Blake told Phillips. “... You probably do it in the way we managed King, where it’s a little bit more controlled. If it’s two innings, it’s two days down. If it’s three innings, it’s three days down.”

That multi-inning high-leverage reliever can be so impactful. We saw it with King the last two years, with Dellin Betances back in the day, and with others too. I’m in the camp that thinks WAR underrates relievers, particularly leverage guys getting the game’s biggest outs. If Loáisiga or Hamilton or whoever can be that guy now that King is in San Diego, excellent. Multi-inning relievers are such a weapon.

With Loáisiga, that is an enormous “if” given his injury history. Would a more strict usage/rest pattern keep him healthy? Who knows. The Yankees don’t even know. Ultimately, the only way to keep pitchers healthy is to not pitch them. They’re all injury risks, Loáisiga much moreso than most. He hasn’t stayed healthy as a starter, as a short reliever, and even as a multi-inning guy when the Yankees used him that way in 2021.

I definitely think Loáisiga can be an effective 2-3 inning reliever. It’s not a question of stuff or control or guts or anything like that. He can do it. It’s just a question of whether his body is up to it. Loáisiga had a nagging elbow problem throughout 2023 and he finished the season on the injured list. 2024 would be a great year for his first injury-free season, both for the Yankees and Loáisiga himself (it’s his free agent year)

Yankees sign Allen

Welcome back, Greg Allen. The Yankees have signed Allen to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, reports Joel Sherman. Allen gets a $1.1M salary in the big leagues and $50,000 each for 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450, and 500 plate appearances. He essentially replaces Bubba Thompson, who was lost on waivers to the Twins last week.

This is Allen’s third stint with the Yankees. He joined them on a minor league contract in 2021 and got into 15 big league games that year as a COVID replacement. Last season the Yankees picked him up in a minor trade to replace Aaron Hicks, and he played 22 MLB games around a hip injury. The Yankees released Allen last August and he finished the season in Triple-A with the Brewers.

Now 30, Allen is a known quantity at this point. He’s a career .289/.398/.426 (125 wRC+) hitter in parts of five Triple-A seasons and a career .231/.300/.340 (74 wRC+) hitter in parts of seven MLB seasons. Allen can run and play defense well. He’s a decent fourth outfielder and a very good fifth outfielder. The kinda guy you stash in Triple-A but maybe don’t want on your bench all year.

The Yankees will announce their non-roster invitees to Spring Training within the next week. Allen figures to join Everson Pereira and fellow non-roster players Luis González and Oscar Gonzalez in the Scranton outfield. That’s a nice little Triple-A outfield with one legit prospect and three others with big league time. Welcome back, Greg. See you in June (kidding, I hope).

Yankees have scouted Syndergaard

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are among the 15 teams to watch Noah Syndergaard during his various workouts this offseason. Apparently he was in the mid-90s, which would be a nice step up from last season’s 92.2 mph average fastball (95.9 mph max). It has been a quiet offseason for free agents in general, and especially so for Syndergaard. His MLBTR archive is a ghost town.

Syndergaard, 31, split last season between the Dodgers and Guardians, throwing 88.2 innings with a 6.50 ERA (6.20 FIP) and a hard to believe 14.3% strikeout rate. He was a useful pitcher as recently as 2022, when he threw 134.2 innings with a 3.94 ERA (3.83 FIP), though his strikeout rate was only 16.8% that season. Still, you don’t have to look too far back to see the last time Syndergaard was serviceable.

The Dodgers and Guardians are the best in the business at fixing pitchers – Syndergaard said he signed with the Dodgers specifically because he thought they could get his career back on track – and if they couldn’t get Syndergaard right last year, he might be a lost cause. He’s still relatively young and lots of teams need pitching, so he’ll get signed. I’m just not sure how effective he can be at this point.

Is it time for Syndergaard to give the bullpen a try? His stuff isn’t playing well as a starter now, but as a one-inning reliever, maybe his fastball livens up and he can be effective? No shame in being a reliever nowadays. If Syndergaard will take a minor league contract, then great, sign him up. I don’t think the Yankees should guarantee him an MLB roster spot though, even though they could use another starter.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Sam asks: Seeing the Yankees push Juan Soto merch online got me thinking beyond this season (I don't want to have one-and-done Soto merch. Sign me up when he signs an extension). When was the last time the Yankees traded for a player with one year of control, who they tried to extend, but couldn't? I can't think of any situations that are even close. I know Soto's a special case, but have the Yankees let a guy they traded for the year before walk when they wanted him long-term?

I can’t think of anyone unless you count trade deadline rentals (Andrew Benintendi, Todd Frazier, etc.), and deadline rentals are kinda in their own separate category. They don’t fit the spirit of the question. The Yankees have traded for one full season of many players and extended them (Tino Martinez and Javy Vazquez jump to mind), but trading for one year of a big name player, trying to sign him long-term, and then losing that player? I’m not sure that’s ever happened. The Yankees basically never let star players they want to keep get away. That’s what made Robinson Canó such a shock. A star Yankee leaving the team was almost unprecedented. That isn’t to say re-signing Juan Soto is a slam dunk. Only that when the Yankees want to keep a player, like really really want to keep him, they usually find a way to get it done.

Adam asks: Which of the 2 scenarios below would you prefer:

Scenario A: The Yankees signed Harper when he was a free agent to the same contract he currently has w/ the Phillies, however, the Yankees never trade or sign Soto in the future.

Scenario B: Current roster (so Harper was never signed), however, you are 100% guaranteed a contract extension for Soto that is, in today's dollars, comparable to Harper’s was when he signed his.

Scenario A gives you more playoff runs in the Judge era, but would Harper have been enough to push the Yankees over the top from 2019 - 2023? You can make the case that their best chances in Judge's era was before Harper's free agency (2017/2018). Scenario B extends the current competitive window a little better and will help the team weather Judge's decline years. Plus I personally would give Soto the edge in value based on his durability and consistency. I would probably take Scenario A, mostly because I feel like we already have the edge to re-sign Soto after making the trade anyway, but I'd definitely be holding my breath that Harper doesn't get injured.

I am absolutely taking Scenario A. You get Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge in their primes simultaneously from 2019 to whenever they age out as elite players as opposed to Judge in his 30s and Juan Soto in his prime from 2024 until whenever they age out. The best chance to win a World Series with this core was 2018-22 or so. Maybe adding Harper doesn’t push them over the top, but I think it’s fair to say adding Harper to the 2019-23 teams was more likely to result in a title than adding Soto to the 2024 and beyond teams. The Yankees then were better than the Yankees now. These days the Yankees are trying to hang on and remain competitive more than they are a no-doubt World Series threat. Soto is awesome and I’m glad the Yankees have him, but I think Harper would have helped the 2019-23 teams a lot more than Soto will help the 2024 and beyond teams given the state of the roster around them.

Mike asks: I think it's a safe assumption that the Yankees won't be investing substantially in any other position players at this point. With that said, what are your thoughts on Mike Moustakas on a 1 year deal as a bench option? He hits lefty, generally puts the ball in play, can play both corner infield spots and even has a little experience at second in an emergency. Feels like the type of guy that could help lighten the load for DJ while also being a bit of insurance for Rizzo/DJ (age/injury) and Peraza (inexperience). If DJ, Rizzo and Peraza all stay healthy and perform, then they could easily walk away from Moose if he's not performing.

Now 35, Moustakas is looking pretty cooked these days. He’s hit .227/.291/.372 (75 wRC+) in close to 900 plate appearances the last three years and that’s broken down into a 70 wRC+ in 2021, a 77 wRC+ in 2022, and another 77 wRC+ in 2023. Moustakas is bad at third base these days too (-9 DRS and -5 OAA since 2021), so he’s more of an emergency option there.

Moustakas did hit .254/.303/.418 (87 wRC+) against righties last year, which isn’t very good but it is more respectable than his overall slash line. His ground ball and pull rates suggest he’d mix well with the short porch too. Scale back on his playing time and use him as a part-time platoon bat at first base with some third base on occasion, and maybe Moustakas can be useful.

Personally, I don’t see much to get excited about with Moustakas given how he’s hit (or not hit) the last three years, the decline of his third base defense, and the underlying numbers:

When I mentioned Josh VanMeter as a bench candidate, I noted he is a very bad hitter, but he is versatile enough to play the infield and outfield. Moustakas is locked in at first base unless you’re willing to live with the poor defense at third. I’d like the Yankees to add first base depth with Anthony Rizzo coming back from his concussion. I just don’t think Moustakas qualifies.

I will say this though: Moustakas is exactly the kinda guy the Yankees have brought in to round out the bench the last few years. That late career Jay Bruce and Marwin Gonzalez type, you know? And I will also say Moustakas does seem like the kinda seemingly washed up veteran who inexplicably hits .275/.360/.500 for the Yankees. He does have Yankees bench vibes, sure.

The Reds released Moustakas last offseason and ate the $22M they owed him in 2023. The Rockies picked him up on a league minimum deal, got a 100 wRC+ in 136 plate appearances, then flipped him to the Angels. His Reds contract is over and Moustakas is a minor league contract guy at this point. Bringing him to camp as a non-roster guy and seeing what’s left in the tank is fine. Penciling him into the bench sight unseen is not something I can get on board with.

Tyler asks: The Yankees are obviously very careful about rest days and workload management. That seems to cut directly against the new philosophy of asking guys to play through injuries. They consistently fail to IL players who then miss 5-7 days, and worse than that, last year had multiple players play through major injuries that were obviously hampering them (Rizzo, Trevino). How can a team simultaneously prioritize rest days and also push players to play through injury at the detriment of the team? Can you dig into this philosophy? Is it new?

This is not new. It goes back into the Joe Girardi era. The Yankees go to great lengths to rest their players because they believe it will not only keep them healthy, but also keep them fresh and performing at their best. They do it with good intentions – the Yankees are hardly the only team to embrace NBA-style load management – even though we may find it frustrating. But then they’ll do something like, as Tyler said, let Anthony Rizzo and Jose Trevino play through injuries (for weeks!), or DJ LeMahieu and his toe in 2022. The Yankees seem overly cautious at times and not cautious enough at others. Good luck getting Aaron Boone or someone in the front office to explain the logic. There is science behind it, the Yankees aren’t arbitrarily coming up with rest schedules, but it does seem contradictory, right? Maybe they should be a little more flexible with their rest schedules. I dunno.

C.J. asks: I understand that minor league contracts are typically for one year. But, I'm curious about the contractual status of players like Oscar Gonzalez and Jeter Downs, who recently cleared outright waivers. If they play all of 2024 in the minor leagues without being added to the 40-man roster, do they become minor league free agents at the end of the season? Or do the Yankees control their rights until a certain point?

Downs and Gonzalez will become minor league free agents after the season unless the Yankees put them back on the 40-man roster. When a player clears outright waivers and is removed from the 40-man, there are two possible outcomes:

• The player accepts the outright assignment and remains in the organization as a non-40-man player. He then becomes a minor league free agent after the season regardless of service time unless he is put back on the 40-man roster.
• The player rejects the outright and elects free agency. This right is given to players who have been outrighted previously or have at least three years of MLB service time.

Downs and Gonzalez had never been outrighted before and they don’t have three years of MLB service time, so they had to stay in the organization after clearing waivers. They couldn’t elect free agency. Then, after the 2024 season, they’ll become minor league free agents unless the Yankees put them on the 40-man, which seems unlikely (but who knows how the next few months will shake out).

Normally you have to spend parts of seven different seasons in the minors before being eligible for minor league free agency. Once you’re put on the 40-man roster though, things change, and you can become a minor league free agent before the seven years (this doesn’t apply to Downs or Gonzalez, they have the seven years anyway).

Joe asks: Your waiver claim piece made me wonder: will NYY change the way they do business with extensions prior to FA? This has to be the dumbest strategy for any team, especially one that seems to constantly lowball free agents. Why cut yourself off from a much more efficient way to build a team - extend your top talent before FA. They did it with Sevy but that’s basically it & I bet they regret it with Judge.

To be fair to the Yankees, I don’t think they had much of a chance at extending Aaron Judge given the way things played out. He was very comfortable betting on himself and may not have been extendable at anything other than what he considered a market rate contract, and the entire point of these early career extensions is getting a discount, either short or long-term.

The last two extensions the Yankees handed out – Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino – went bad so quickly it’s almost funny. Hicks got hurt 14 days after signing his deal and Severino got hurt 18 days after signing his deal, and neither was ever really the same after that. I don’t think those two scared the Yankees away from extensions though. They’ve long been extension averse. It’s not like they gave out a bunch of deals, those two went bad, then they stopped extending guys.

I think the single biggest reason the Yankees pass on extensions is the luxury tax. They value the cheap pre-arbitration years now more than below market salaries down the line. Let’s say the Yankees give Anthony Volpe seven years and $70M. I pulled that contract out of thin air, so don’t waste any brain power thinking about whether it’s fair or not. I just need a number.

Seven years and $70M comes with a $10M a year luxury tax hit. Without the extension, Volpe would be a pre-arbitration player in 2024 and 2025, and make something close to the $740,000 minimum. The extension may give you Volpe at a discount after Year 4 or so, but in Years 1 and 2, his luxury tax hit goes from $740,000 to $10M, and the Yankees don’t want that.

I’m pretty sure the increased waiver activity is a function of the Yankees having a lot of 40-man roster flexibility this offseason, and not a new approach to team-building. They had the flexibility to make a few more dart throws, so they did. I don’t think that tells us much about their willingness to give out extensions. The Yankees rarely extend players before free agency and I will assume that will continue to be the case until I see evidence otherwise.

Benjamin asks: Mike, am I crazy to compare the first 6 years of Gleyber to the first 6 years of Beltre? Obviously there are differences (Beltre was younger), but is there anything there? I know, the fans don't like him, but maybe we can squint our eyes and see a borderline HOF player? Crazy, I know, but it's the end of January and I kind of like the guy. Baseball!!

Baseball Reference’s similarity scores say Gleyber Torres’ most similar hitter through age 26 is … Javy Báez? Really? Torres has 123 homers and a 115 OPS+. Through age 26, Báez had 110 homers and a 106 OPS+. Báez also struck out at a much higher rate (28.1% vs. 20.3%) and walked at a much lower rate (4.9% vs. 8.9%). That’s a weird one.

Anyway, Torres was a better hitter through his first six seasons than Adrián Beltré, the new Hall of Famer, was in his first six years:

• Torres 2018-23: .267/.334/.454 (115 OPS+)
• Beltré 1998-2003: .262/.320/.428 (97 OPS+)

As Benjamin said, Beltré did that at a younger age. His first six seasons were his age 19-24 seasons. Gleyber’s first six seasons were ages 21-26. Beltré’s breakout year was his age 25 season in 2004: .334/.388/.629 (163 OPS+) and 48 homers. Torres hit a solid .267/.310/.451 (113 wRC+) with 24 homers during his age 25 seasons in 2023, so yeah, not comparable.

There’s also the matter of defense. Beltré is one of the best defensive third basemen ever – he’s one of the best defenders ever period, regardless of position – and Gleyber is … not that. He’s a better defender than he gets credit for, but he’s nowhere close to Beltré. Few are. Torres out-hit Beltré in their first six years, but Beltré was much more promising because he was doing it at a younger age, and because he added so much value on defense.

And that’s fine! Torres doesn’t have to be Beltré. We shouldn’t hold anyone to that standard. A 115 OPS+ and +3 WAR second baseman (Gleyber’s 162-game averages) is a really good player, especially considering he just turned 27 and is entering what figure to be the best years of his career. Beltré was an all-time great. Torres (probably) is not, but he’s still really good.

Lynn asks: Given all of the injuries and ineffectiveness of our starting pitchers last year (Rodon, Cortes, Severino) and the complete lack of production from everyone in our starting lineup not named Torres or Judge, I find it amazing that the Yankees actually won 82 games. How do you feel about that and how do you explain it? It can’t be all Cole and the bullpen. While I have sometimes been an Aaron Boone critic, he may well deserve some credit here.

The Yankees went 82-80 even though their run differential and underlying metrics like BaseRuns say they performed more like a 78-84 team. It’s not like they fattened up on coin flip games either. The Yankees went 17-23 in one-run games and 6-9 in extra-inning games, including 1-7 in road extra-inning games. There is no one single reason the Yankees managed to win 82 games with that roster.

Why did it happen? Gerrit Cole being the best pitcher in the game certainly helped (the Yankees went 23-10 in his 33 starts) but it wasn’t just him. It’s a combination of many things. I think some of them were:

• Anthony Rizzo was excellent the first two months and DJ LeMahieu was excellent in the second half, so their season lines aren’t the best reflection of how they played. They were impact players who helped the Yankees win a lot of games for big chunks of the season.
• Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt combined to give the Yankees 51 roughly league average starts. That’s almost a third of the season. League average isn’t great, but it isn’t bad either. It can be easy to underrate those contributions.
• Part-timers like Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero, and Billy McKinney each had a stretch when they came up with important hits. Cordero had his great week in April, McKinney socked some clutch dingers in June, etc.
• The bullpen had a 70% save percentage, fourth best in baseball. When the Yankees got leads, the guys in the bullpen did a really good job protecting it.
• The Yankees went 17-11 in September. The kids energized everyone and dragged the team over the .500 line.

Save percentage is a tricky one because setup men can get blown saves but not saves. For example, if Jonathan Loáisiga comes into the eighth inning with a one-run lead and gives up a solo homer, he gets a blown save even though he was never going to get the save. Clay Holmes was going to come in for the ninth. If Loáisiga protects that lead, he gets a hold, not a save. If he blows it, he gets a blown save. Blown save totals are inflated and misrepresent actual save opportunities.

The MLB average save percentage was 62% in 2023 and the Yankees were within striking distance of the No. 1 spot (Blue Jays at 74%). Know which team ranked last in save percentage? The World Series champion Rangers at 48%. Good reminder that everything resets once the postseason begins. The team you have during the regular season isn’t necessarily the team you have in October.

There is also something to be said for having a winning culture. You can’t quantify it but it definitely exists. There is something in the organization’s DNA that just prevents the Yankees from being bad. Like bad bad. 82-80 is the worst season a not insignificant chunk of the fan base has seen. Credit the players, Aaron Boone, the front office, everyone for that culture. It exists. (See the Mets for the opposite of this.)

Ultimately, the difference between their 82-80 actual record and 78-84 expected record is not very big. Four wins in either direction is well within the range of possible outcomes given the randomness of the sport and imprecision of the various record estimators. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: I enjoy the winning season streak and appreciate the Yankees never being an abject disaster, no matter how much I complain.

Anonymous asks: With pitchers adding so much velocity over the past decade and aging hitters having struggled with high velocity forever, how useful is it to use position player aging charts from pre 2010? Isn't this a case where a smaller pool and recency bias is a good thing?

Those older aging curves are not very useful. There is continuing research into this and updated aging curves have been published in recent years, like this one, this one, this one, and this one. And, generally speaking, those aging curves are steeper now, so hitters are less productive the deeper they get into their 30s than they were 10-15 years ago. There are several possible reasons for that, starting with the guys on the mound. They throw so hard and have such nasty secondary pitches, and their usage is optimized to the nth degree. Aging hitters with slower bats have an increasingly smaller margin of error. Also, these things are constantly changing because the game itself constantly changes. The aging curves in 10 years will look different from the aging curves of today. Who knows? Maybe things will reverse at some point and older hitters will fare better than they are now.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)