January 22nd, 2024: ZiPS, Snell, Bullpen, Kim, Minor Moves

Do you know what happened 10 years ago today? The Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka. Can you believe it’s already been 10 years? Seven-year contract and he pitched to a 3.74 ERA (3.91 FIP) in 1,054.1 innings. That’s 150.6 innings a year even though he missed a chunk of 2014 with his elbow injury and 2020 was shortened by the pandemic. Loved that guy. Too bad the Yankees never got Tanaka a ring. Here now is Tuesday morning’s post Monday morning. There’s an extra post coming later this week and I’m spreading things out a bit to make my life easier.

1. 2024 ZiPS projections. It is projection season. FanGraphs has been rolling out 2024 ZiPS projections the last few weeks and the Yankees finally came up last Friday. The Yankees were the second-to-last team to be projected and that’s a good thing, really, because we have a more complete picture of the roster. Project them in, say, November, and a lot would be missing.

As Dan Szymborski explained in the intro, ZiPS is “estimating what the baseline expectation for a player is at the moment I hit the button, and then estimating where that player may be going using large cohorts of relatively similar players.” Every projection system will have misses at the individual player level, but in the aggregate, and ZiPS is very good (and it was again in 2023).

Here are the 2024 Yankees ZiPS projections and here’s the WAR graphic:

The write-up says “ZiPS is banking between 86-90 wins, which wouldn’t be that bad considering the challenges the team has had to fix on the fly this winter.” The 86-90 win range puts you in the postseason mix. It also means every win the Yankees add to their roster right now is incredibly valuable. Each additional win improves their postseason odds significantly.

I don’t want to spend too much time talking about the ZiPS projections (they’re projections, they can only be so interesting), but a few things caught my eye, and we might as well touch on them. Not like there’s anything else going on right now. Now for some thoughts on the 2024 ZiPS projections.

Judge and Soto

I don’t have much to say about Aaron Judge’s and Juan Soto’s ZiPS projections other than they are very good and I enjoy looking at them, and I hope you do too:

• Judge: .271/.384/.575 (162 OPS+) with 40 HR and +5.5 WAR
• Soto: .275/.421/.516 (160 OPS+) with 34 HR and +5.5 WAR

Here is a complete list of players who project for a higher OPS+ or WAR than Judge and Soto: Ronald Acuña Jr. (164 OPS+ and +7.4 WAR) and Yordan Alvarez (170 OPS+). Mookie Betts (+5.4 WAR) comes close, but that’s it. At least according to ZiPS, the Yankees have two of the three or four best position players in the sport.

Obviously +5.5 WAR is really good, though two +5.5 WAR players on one team isn’t that rare. It happens a few times a year. The Braves (Acuña, Matt Olson, Austin Riley) and Padres (Soto, Ha-Seong Kim, Fernando Tatis Jr.) did it last year. The Yankees last had two +5.5 WAR players all the way back in … 2019 (Judge, DJ LeMahieu). Not that long ago.

Two qualified hitters with a 160 OPS+ though? That doesn’t happen often. The Braves (Acuña, Olson) and Dodgers (Betts, Freddie Freeman) did it last year after only nine teams did it from 2000 to 2022 (excluding 2020). The Yankees last had two qualified 160 OPS+ hitters in 2005 (Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez). Before them? It was 1961 (Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris).

I didn’t need ZIPS to tell me Judge and Soto are both really good, but it still is nice to see the projections tell us they’re both on the very short list of the game’s best players. It takes more than two great players to win the World Series. Having two great players sure is a great start to the roster though.

Grisham vs. Verdugo

Is it a good thing or a bad thing Trent Grisham has the fourth best ZiPS projection among Yankees’ position players? Only Judge (+5.5 WAR), Soto (+5.5 WAR), and Gleyber Torres (+3.4 WAR) project better than Grisham (+2.7 WAR). Grisham has been a steady +2 WAR player the last few years. Getting close to +3 WAR from him would be a good outcome.

Of course, Grisham is currently the fourth outfielder, and who knows how much he’ll play? ZiPS projects that +2.7 WAR in 537 plate appearances. I’d take the under on that, though I do think Grisham will wind up with close to 400 plate appearances, if not more. Anyway, here are two relevant ZiPS projections:

• Trent Grisham: .219/.321/.406 (101 OPS+) and +2.7 WAR in 537 PA
• Alex Verdugo: .268/.327/.419 (106 OPS+) and +1.6 WAR in 591 PA

Grisham projects better than Verdugo because he’s a much better defender, and also because his offensive game fits Yankee Stadium better. Verdugo did a lot of his damage to left field the last few years and that won’t work as well in the Bronx as it did in Fenway Park. Grisham pulls a lot of fly balls in the air to right field and ZiPS knows that. He’ll enjoy the short porch.

Verdugo projects to be the better hitter overall and batting average is underrated these days. The Yankees need more guys who can hit for average – the Yankees hit .227 as a team last year and it was .222 for everyone other than Judge and Torres, and that stinks! – and that is not Grisham. Grisham has hit .191 in over 1,000 plate appearances the last two years.

Baseball is not as simple as collecting the most WAR. You need players who fill specific needs, and although Grisham projects better than Verdugo, Verdugo fits what the Yankees need better because he’s a better hitter, particularly at hitting for average. I’m sure we’ll see Grisham plenty this year. I still think Verdugo should start over him even though ZiPS likes Grisham more.

Volpe in Year 2

Offensively, Anthony Volpe’s rookie season was not good. He played good defense, good enough to win a Gold Glove, but Volpe hit .209/.283/.383 (84 wRC+) in 601 plate appearances. That’s bad even for a rookie shortstop who essentially skipped over Triple-A. The Yankees need Volpe to be better in 2024.

Because of his underwhelming rookie season, ZiPS has begun to sour on Volpe, or maybe it’s better to say it’s not as high on him as it was a year ago. Here are the Volpe’s numbers:

• 2023 ZiPS: .234/.318/.407 (100 OPS+) and +3.1 WAR
• 2024 ZiPS: .224/.302/.404 (94 OPS+) and +2.4 WAR

Last year ZiPS spit out Adrián Beltré as Volpe’s No. 1 comp, meaning age 22 Volpe was similar to age 22 Beltré, statistically. Volpe’s No. 2 comp was Chet Lemon, who went to three All-Star Games and had an 18-year career. This year’s top two comps are, uh, James Mouton and Dick Schofield? Two journeyman utility infielders. Big step down from Beltré and Lemon, huh.

ZiPS isn’t the be-all and end-all, but the completely objective system looked at Volpe and what he did last year, and adjusted downward. That doesn’t mean Volpe can’t become an above-average shortstop, just that it is a less likely outcome than it was a year ago. I’m hopeful Volpe will take a step forward this year. I also have a hard time trusting the Yankees with young hitters. Shrug.

The bullpen projection

From 2017-23, the Yankees received +43.2 WAR from their bullpen. The Dodgers are second at +40.9 WAR and the Rays are third at +38.0 WAR. The Astros are a distant fourth at +32.8 WAR. The Yankees build good bullpens, it’s what they do, though the 2024 bullpen is lacking according to ZiPS. Lacking relative to recent Yankees bullpens, anyway.

Here’s what ZiPS forecast for the Yankees' bullpen each year since 2017, which was the start of the Judge era:

• 2017: +5.0 WAR
• 2018: +8.0 WAR
• 2019: +7.9 WAR
• 2020: +6.8 WAR (before pandemic)
• 2021: +6.6 WAR
• 2022: +6.6 WAR
• 2023: +4.2 WAR
• 2024: +2.4 WAR

First things first: ZiPS projected +45.1 WAR for the bullpen from 2017-23 and the Yankees got +43.2 WAR from their bullpen. Score one for the algorithm. Compared to the 2017-23 bullpen projections though, the 2024 bullpen projection is way down. In fact, 21 teams have a better bullpen projection. Could the Yankees have a bad bullpen in 2024? That would really stink.

The poor bullpen projection stems from the injury risk (Scott Effross Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loáisiga) and ZiPS not loving depth guys like Ron Marinaccio, Cody Morris, Nick Ramirez, etc. The Yankees are said to have interest in various free agent relievers, though the top guys are starting to come off the board. Some bullpen help should be on the shopping list.

The depth issue

We can use ZiPS to estimate depth. I’ve done this the last few years now. We can compare the Yankees to other big market contenders at the +1 WAR level (competent MLB player), +2 WAR level (average MLB player), and +4 WAR level (All-Star). Basically, how many of each player do the Yankees have, and how do they compare to other contenders with similar resources?

The White Sox are the only team that hasn’t been projected yet and we don’t need them for this exercise. Here’s where the Yankees sit compared to other contenders with high payrolls:

Hey, the Yankees fare pretty well. They’re behind the Braves and Dodgers across the board and I get that, but they’re in roughly the same range as the Astros and Rangers. I’m surprised the Phillies compare so poorly to other big market contenders, though they are a bit top heavy, so I guess it makes sense. Their recent success is the result of their stars playing like stars.

Anyway, there is a small catch with the Yankees and their depth as I’m measuring it. A chunk of it is tied up in prospects not expected to help much in 2024, like Jorbit Vivas (+1.9 WAR), Jared Serna (+1.2 WAR), Agustin Ramirez (+1.1 WAR), Caleb Durbin (+1.0 WAR), and Chase Hampton (+1.0 WAR). I mean, maybe Hampton reaches MLB this year, but probably not.

Other clubs have prospects who project well, so the Yankees aren’t unique, though saying the Yankees have 24 +1 players – competent players to plug holes throughout the season – is a tad deceptive. From the ZiPS write-up:

If you add up the numbers on the Yankees’ depth chart — ignoring the fact that you explicitly waive any rights to restitution should you be karate-chopped upon doing so — you’ll get a win total in the low 90s. However, the simulations are coming up a bit short of that largely because, outside of the infield, ZiPS believes that New York’s depth is thinner than most of the other good teams.

The Yankees ran into that problem last season. Their injury replacements simply weren’t good enough. In 2019, everyone the Yankees called up performed, and maybe that was a rocket ball mirage. Since then though, finding competent fill-ins has been a problem. Have the Yankees solved the depth issue going into 2024? I guess we’re going to find out this summer.

2. Latest hot stove news. I was asked to write something at CBS about why the free agent market has been so slow, and to be honest, I kinda mailed it in. That post won’t be live when this post hits your inbox, but check my CBS author page sometime around lunch and it should be up. I think the single biggest reason free agency has been so slow is teams are playing a game of chicken. They’re waiting out the market and hoping players get desperate with Spring Training approaching, and drop their asking price. Until that happens, we wait. Here’s the latest Yankees-related and Yankees-adjacent hot stove news.

On the rumored Snell offer

On Jan. 11th, former Cubs analyst Mike Rodriguez reported the Yankees offered Blake Snell a five-year, $150M contract. That same day Jon Heyman said the Yankees made Snell an opening offer without providing any details (terms of the offer, when it was made, etc.). Soon thereafter the Yankees signed Marcus Stroman, reportedly because they were far apart with Snell.

I am unfamiliar with Rodriguez and his reporting, and with all due respect, he is not typically a source for updates on the Yankees and top Scott Boras clients. Those leaks usually go to Heyman, Jack Curry, Ken Rosenthal, etc. That doesn’t mean information can’t wind up with an unlikely source, only that it’s … unlikely. If true, the Snell offer is a great scoop by Rodriguez.

(Mark Feinsand says the Yankees “reportedly” made Snell a six-year, $150M offer. He’s citing someone else and I can’t find that original report.)

As for the offer, I would call five years and $150M for Snell a good and believable opening offer. That one passes the sniff test. Bill Madden says Boras and Snell are seeking nine years and $270M, and a) Madden's reporting can be sketchy, and b) that’s a believable ask by Boras. I can absolutely buy that. This his how things usually go with top Boras clients:

Everyone projects a reasonable contract for the player. Call it X.

Boras says he was 2X for the player. Everyone says he’s crazy.

Weeks go by, sometimes even months, and people say Boras overplayed his hand.

Boras gets 1.5X for his client.

Boras knows he’s not getting $270M, even for the reigning NL Cy Young winner, but Boras always starts outrageously high, then comes down to a level that is still higher than what seems like a reasonable contract for the player. It may seem like Boras is running out of teams for Snell, but don’t doubt the guy. I’ve seen this movie too many times over the years.

From the Yankees’ perspective, five years and $150M is a good opening offer. $30M a year is not insulting even though it would be “only” the seventh highest average annual salary for a starting pitcher. If your interest is sincere and you started at five years and $150M, chances are you did so already knowing you’re willing to go to a sixth year (maybe a seventh), and upping the annual salary. Wiggle room is always built in.

At the same time, five years and $150M seems perfectly designed to get Boras to say no while allowing you to walk away saying “we tried, look how much we offered!” The Yankees did some major damage control after missing out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto (offered a higher annual salary, didn’t want to exceed Gerrit Cole’s contract, etc.). Is the Snell offer leak more of the same?

Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees are done seeking high level starting pitching and I think that’s a mistake, and I doubt I'm alone in thinking that. Even with Stroman, there is still plenty of room for improvement in the rotation. I mean:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole (amazing)
2. LHP Carlos Rodón (hurt and ineffective in 2023)
3. RHP Marcus Stroman (hip and rib injuries late in 2023)
4. LHP Nestor Cortes (hurt and ineffective in 2023)
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt (career high workload in 2023)
6. RHP Luke Weaver (literally Luke Weaver)

You needn’t try hard to see how things could go sideways (again) this coming season, even as early as Spring Training. Rodón and Luis Severino got hurt in camp last year and so did Cortes (remember when he was questionable for Opening Day?). There is a lot – A LOT – of upside in that rotation. There’s also a lot of risk and I’d like the Yankees to build in more protection.

Adding Stroman allows the Yankees to take a big swing without necessarily worrying about where the innings will come from. Before Stroman, I thought Jordan Montgomery made the most sense because you can count on him to take the ball every fifth day. With Stroman, Snell’s ability to dominate is more appealing, even if he’s a chore to watch and doesn’t pitch deep into games. The Yankees can shoot for the moon now.

Everything the Yankees have done this offseason is short-term. They had to give Stroman two years (with a conditional player option for a third) because they weren’t getting him on a one-year contract. Otherwise it’s one year of Juan Soto, one year of Alex Verdugo, potentially just one year of Trent Grisham (they can non-tender him after 2024), one year of Weaver, etc.

The Yankees are trying to thread the needle and do as much as they can to improve the 2024 team (because Cole and Aaron Judge aren’t getting any younger and it’s their one guaranteed year with Soto) without saddling themselves with long-term contracts that hamper the 2025 and beyond Yankees. I get it, but geez, this team still feels incomplete. Get more pitching guys!

Assuming Rodriguez’s report is true and the Yankees did offer Snell five years and $150M, they are at least somewhat comfortable with a long-term deal. You have to be prepared in case Boras surprises you and says yes, so they’re willing to do five years and $150M. If you’re okay with that, then just tack on the sixth year and up the average annual value some. The Yankees can afford it and it would put the 2024 team in a much better place rotation-wise.

I don’t expect that to happen and not only because Kuty says the Yankees are done seeking high level pitching. They’re in the 110% luxury tax bracket now. Something like, say, $32M a year for Snell would come with a $35.2M tax hit, and Hal Steinbrenner won’t like that. Snell’s tax hit would not have been as severe without Stroman, but now the Yankees have Stroman, so that’s what it is.

The Yankees have started the last few seasons one piece short. Last year they didn’t have a left fielder. The year before they had a half-measure at shortstop. The year before that skimped on the bench and Jay Bruce had to play first base after Luke Voit got hurt in Spring Training. Being one piece short has been a constant lately and this year it looks like it’ll be the rotation.

I have no idea whether the five-year, $150M offer for Snell is legit. It does pass the sniff test, I can buy that as an opening offer, but how sincere was the Yankees’ interest? They’ve done a lot of “we tried” lately and it’s getting hard to give them the benefit of the doubt. The Yankees could stand to add another starter, Snell or otherwise, and I hope they surprise us and do so.

“I think our team overall is going to be a constant evolution,” Brian Cashman told Kuty (subs. req’d) last week. “We have a very strong team in my opinion, but we always look to improve upon it where we can and when we can. I think we have a good rotation if everything goes right, which is something you don’t want to count on and lay back counting on. We will constantly continue to look and tinker if possible, but we do like what we have at the same time.”

The bullpen market

The top free agent relievers are coming off the board and the bullpen market is really beginning to move. Here are the latest bullpen signings from around the league:

• The Astros signed Josh Hader to a five-year, $95M contract.
• The Angels signed Robert Stephenson to a three-year, $33M contract.
• The Blue Jays signed Yariel Rodriguez to a four-year, $32M contract.
• The White Sox signed John Brebbia to a one-year, $5.5M contract.

The Astros have $45M a year tied up in three relievers (Hader, Rafael Montero, Ryan Pressly) and that’s a pretty good sign it isn’t the same front office over there. That would never happen under Jeff Luhnow and probably not James Click either. Special advisor Jeff Bagwell is said to have a big voice and I could see him talking owner Jim Crane into big name relievers.

It makes sense for Houston though, right? The clock is ticking on their core (Jose Altuve turns 34 in May, Justin Verlander turns 41 next month, Alex Bregman will be a free agent after 2024, Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez after 2025, etc.), and Hader increases their World Series odds in the short-term. The Astros were one win away from another pennant last year, after all.

Hader, Pressly, and Bryan Abreu are a nasty back-end of the bullpen. Reminiscent of the Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller days for the Yankees. Those three had a 2.35 ERA (1.75 FIP) with 247 strikeouts in 149.2 innings for the Yankees in 2016. Sheesh. Anyway, the Yankees open the season with four games in Houston against Hader and the Astros. Joy.

As for Stephenson, the Yankees were said to have interest in him last month. They were never connected to Hader and I get why. It’s five years at $19M a pop and they’d have to give up two draft picks and $1M in international bonus money as well. That Stephenson contract though? That’s very reasonable. Three years and $11M a year is the going rate for a top setup man.

The Cubs and Phillies also had interest in Stephenson. For him to pass up those two clubs and the Yankees suggests the Angels offered the most money. Stephenson turns 31 next month and he’s a journeyman whose track record of success is the 38.1 innings he threw with the Rays last year. This was his chance to cash in. He was never gonna take less to join a contender.

Stephenson is definitely risky given his limited track record and Rays-related injury risk, though Tampa changed his pitch mix and gave him a cutter, so I buy into his newfound success. Maybe not at his Rays level (2.35 ERA and 2.45 FIP with 42.9% strikeouts), but I think Stephenson is a legit high leverage guy. I would’ve been all for the Yankees giving him that contract. Alas.

(Stephenson is on the Angels now and they’ll probably screw him up. It’ll be hard to know if he regresses because he’s not really that good, or because the Angels Angelsed.)

The Rodriguez signing was reported a while ago but there has been no official announcement or follow up from the Blue Jays, apparently because he still has to get his work visa and come over for a physical. Four years and $32M is a reliever contract, though I bet they’ll give him a chance to start in Spring Training. If nothing else, it’s competition for Alek Manoah and the No. 5 spot.

I mentioned Brebbia to a) note he began his pro career with the Yankees (30th rounder in 2011), and b) provide context for the reliever market. Brebbia is a 34-year-old league average-ish middle reliever (3.99 ERA and 3.93 FIP in 2023), and he got $5.5M for 2024. Part of that is the ChiSox being bad and probably having to overpay, but that’s what you’re competing against. Relievers are pricey.

Late last week Heyman reported Hector Neris, arguably the top reliever left on the free agent market, is seeking two years and $22M, though that was later deleted (the Wayback Machine still has it). A few days earlier Hector Gómez said Neris wants three years and $50M, or $16.7M a year. Well, so do I, but I’m guessing neither me nor Mr. Neris will get what we want.

The three years and $50M thing sounds like an opening ask. What Neris told teams he wants early in the offseason because hey, you won’t get it unless you ask for it (Gómez can be hit or miss too). Methinks Neris and his agent were happy with two years and $22M, then they saw the Hader, Stephenson, and Jordan Hicks contracts and said hold on a minute, why are we asking for only two years? Let’s try to get that third year.

Neris makes me nervous. He turns 35 this summer, he’s had a huge career workload, and he’s losing velocity and splitter whiffs. He’s a grenade with the pin pulled. The Yankees have interest in Neris though. I would have greatly preferred Stephenson at his price to Neris at whatever he gets, but that’s off the table now. Here are the top unsigned relievers by projected 2024 WAR:

1. Aroldis Chapman: +1.0 WAR
2. Ryan Brasier: +0.5 WAR
3. David Robertson: +0.4 WAR
4. Hector Neris: +0.4 WAR
5. Several tied at +0.3 WAR (including Keynan Middleton)

Projections are inherently conservative, though that list shows the market is beginning to thin out. Hader, Hicks, and Stephenson have signed and Neris wants top of the market money for a setup guy (understandably). I gave Middleton two years and $6M as part of the Offseason Plan. The Brebbia contract makes me think he’ll get double the money. Maybe even more.

(For what it’s worth, Bryan Hoch says the Yankees have talked to Middleton about a reunion. He said he’d like to come back after the season. Enough to take less? Doubt it.)

The Yankees have gotten pretty good at building bullpens, though they have some injury risk out there (Scott Effross, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loáisiga), and I’d like to see them add to it. The reported interest in Hicks, Neris, and Stephenson indicates they want to add the bullpen too, and not just with warm bodies. They want impact. Will they get it? Options are dwindling.

Kim to be posted after 2024

It’s never too early to look ahead to next offseason’s international players. The Kiwoom Heroes will post second baseman Hye-Seong Kim after 2024, the team announced last week. "After some internal discussion, we decided to respect the player's wish to play in the majors and offer our full support," the Heroes said in a statement (per Jee-Ho Yoo).

"Just challenging myself to make it to such a big stage means a lot to me," Kim told Yoo about his desire to be posted. "Since the team's going to support me, I will try to have a great season and do the best I can like I've always done."

Kim, 25 in a few days, was teammates with Ha-Seong Kim (no relation) and Jung-Hoo Lee the last few years. The Kims were double play partners from 2018-20, until Ha-Seong signed with the Padres. Hye-Seong moved to short in 2021 and then shifted back to second base in 2022. Those three led Kiwoom to the Korean Series in 2019, though they lost to the Doosan Bears.

In 2023, Kim slashed .335/.396/.446 (137 wRC+) with seven homers, 25 steals, and very good strikeout (12.4%) and walk (9.2%) rates. It was his breakout year offensively. Kim is an excellent defensive second baseman who’s won Gold Gloves and Fielding Bible awards (here’s video). He’s also played short and third, and even some outfield, but second base is his best position.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Kim the ninth best non-MLB player in the World Baseball Classic last spring, right behind Yariel Rodriguez. Here’s part of their scouting report:

Kim is an advanced lefthanded hitter with a preternatural feel for contact. He recognizes pitches well, catches up to velocity and consistently finds the barrel with a short, compact swing. He primarily hits the ball on a line for doubles and triples and doesn’t have much home run power, but he hits the ball hard enough to be an average hitter. Kim is a plus defender at second base and can play shortstop as needed. He projects to be a lefthanded utilityman who hits for average and provides defensive value in the infield if he comes to MLB.

Gleyber Torres is a year away from free agency and we’ve yet to see anything suggesting the Yankees will try to re-sign him, though there’s an entire season to play yet. Who knows where things will stand in 11 months? Right now, the internal options to replace Torres are Oswald Peraza (unproven at MLB level) and Jorbit Vivas (unproven in Triple-A).

Kim is not at the same level as Lee – Lee was the best and most famous player in KBO – but Lee will play a role in Kim’s free agency. If Lee has a great rookie season with the Giants and shows that yes, great KBO players can be immediate difference-makers in MLB, there will be more interest in Kim. If Lee flops, well, that ain’t great news for the lesser player.

I’m sure we’ll spend more time talking about Kim as a post-Gleyber possibility as we get closer to next offseason. For now, I’m just putting him on the radar. This was an outlier offseason for international talent – Lee was the best player in KBO and Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the best pitcher (and player) in NPB – but there are other good players out there. They’ll come over soon.

(Between Ha-Seong Kim and Lee, the Heroes have pulled in $24.35M in posting fees over the last four offseasons. That’s a big chunk of change considering KBO has an $8.8M luxury tax threshold. Kiwoom will likely get another few million for the other Kim next offseason too.)

Cardinals sign Carpenter

Matty Carp is going back to St. Louis. Late last week the Cardinals signed Matt Carpenter to a one-year Major League contract, so he’s on their 40-man roster. They only owe him the league minimum because he was released earlier this winter. The Braves and Padres are on the hook for the rest of his $5.5M salary. I guess Carpenter will be a bench bat for St. Louis?

I mention this for two reasons. One, I thought there was a small chance the Yankees would sign Carpenter and bring him to camp as a non-roster player, and let him compete for a bench spot. I’m surprised he got an MLB deal – Carpenter hit .176/.322/.319 (86 wRC+) last season – and I don’t blame the Yankees one bit for not giving him a 40-man spot. Enjoy St. Louis, Matt.

And two, the Carpenter signing presumably pushes Alec Burleson down to Triple-A (at least until someone gets hurt). The Yankees had interest in Burleson earlier this offseason. He’s had trouble carving out a role (part of that is his lack of production) and the Carpenter signing doesn’t help his case. Maybe the Yankees will circle back and see whether Burleson’s available?

The interest in Burleson was reported before the Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo trades, so there is not an obvious role for him now. Burleson would be the extra corner outfielder and backup first baseman on the bench, or go back to Triple-A. He’s at the point in his career where he needs to be in the big leagues and face big league competition to continue his development.

Anyway, I just wanted to mention Carpenter is off the board as a potential non-roster target, and maybe it leads to renewed interest in Burleson even though he’s not an especially good fit for the current roster. He was a few weeks ago. Not so much now. The Yankees will look elsewhere to round out their bench (probably, maybe, possibly).

3. Latest roster moves. The Yankees made a few minor roster moves over the last week or so, so let’s round them up now. I’m sure there will be even more between now and the start of Spring Training in three (!) weeks.

Castillo claimed, Downs DFA’d

Welcome back, Diego Castillo. And so long, Jeter Downs. On Friday the Yankees claimed Castillo off waivers from the Mets and cut Downs to clear a 40-man roster spot. I figured the YANKEES DFA JETER headlines were coming at some point. So much for the Yankees winning the Mookie Betts trade, I guess. (Brian Cashman must’ve loved DFA’ing Jeter lol.)

Castillo, 26, was of course once a Yankees prospect. He was part of the 2014-15 international signing class (I guess that’s not over with yet) and was then traded to the Pirates with Hoy Jun Park for Clay Holmes. Castillo played some with Pittsburgh in 2022 and has since bounced to the Diamondbacks and the Mets and now back to the Yankees on waivers.

The Yankees swapped Downs for Castillo because Castillo’s the better player. Downs is more famous, but Castillo is better. They’re roughly the same age (Castillo’s nine months older) and neither has shown much at the MLB level yet, but look at their career Triple-A performances:

• Castillo: .296/.410/.407 (114 wRC+) with 16.1 K% and 16.0 BB% (777 PA)
• Downs: .202/.306/.370 (80 wRC+) with a 29.7 K% and 11.0 BB% (933 PA)

Castillo is also the better defender, though he fits into the same “better at second base than at shortstop” bucket as Downs. He has an option remaining and, assuming he isn’t DFA’d himself, Castillo and Jorbit Vivas figure to be Triple-A Scranton’s double play combination this coming season. I’d be curious to see how much shortstop Vivas plays in that arrangement.

There’s a chance Downs clears waivers and remains with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. He’s been claimed the last two times he went on waivers though, and he’s only 25 and has name recognition (moreso for his past prospect hype than the Jeter thing). Perhaps he’ll get claimed again. Not a huge loss if he does. It was fun while it lasted (was it though?).

Gonzalez and Thompson DFA’d

Oscar Gonzalez and Bubba Thompson were designated for assignment last week to clear 40-man roster space for Marcus Stroman and Luke Weaver, respectively. Those two signings are official. Gonzalez’s seven-day DFA period ends Wednesday, so we should get word on his status fairly soon. Thompson’s seven-day period ends Friday.

Gonzalez is whatever. His power is real and he makes a lot of contact, though he’s an extreme hacker – 43.6% chase rate in Triple-A last year – and that holds him back . He’s also a poor defender. Gonzalez had a nice rookie half-season with the Guardians in 2022 (.296/.327/.461 and 125 wRC+) but he didn’t hit at all in 2023 (49 wRC+). Major Quad-A vibes here.

As for Thompson, I hope he clears waivers and stays with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. He’s not much of a hitter and he’s a sneaky mediocre defender, but he’s also one of the fastest players in baseball. The 2023 sprint speed leaderboard:

1. Bobby Witt Jr.: 30.5 ft/s
2. Elly De La Cruz: 30.5 ft/s
3. Bubba Thompson: 30.4 ft/s
4. Trea Turner: 30.3 ft/s
5. Dairon Blanco: 30.3 ft/s
(MLB average: 27.0 ft/s)

Thompson went 98-for-111 (88%) stealing bases between Triple-A and MLB the last two years. He could be a weapon as the designated pinch-runner in the postseason, assuming the Yankees qualify. Carrying Thompson on the 40-man all year? Eh. Stashing him in Triple-A and then adding him to the 40-man once necessary (and if warranted) in September? That works.

The Yankees still have 40-man roster maneuverability even after DFAing Downs, Gonzalez, and Thompson. Castillo’s not a lock to stick around, Matt Krook and/or Nick Ramirez could get cut loose, Ben Rortvedt is a candidate to go, and Jasson Domínguez can go on the 60-day injured list once Spring Training opens. There may be even more roster churn on the horizon.

Yankees sign VanMeter

The Yankees signed utility man Josh VanMeter to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training last week, according to Ken Rosenthal. Joel Sherman says VanMeter gets an $850,000 salary in the big leagues and $30,000 a month in Triple-A. That’s a fairly typical Triple-A salary for a guy with MLB service time and several years in Triple-A.

VanMeter, 29 in March, spent last year in Triple-A with the Brewers, where he hit .199/.400/.362 (106 wRC+) with six homers in 46 games around a leg injury. He’s always drawn a lot of walks, and with the automated strike zone last year, VanMeter had a 24.2% walk rate. That’s 46 walks in 190 plate appearances. The walks are good. The rest of the hitting stuff? Not so much.

In parts of four MLB seasons the lefty hitting VanMeter owns a .206/.293/.347 (72 wRC+) line with 19 homers and 10.5% walks, and a tolerable 24.7% strikeout rate. That’s in 841 plate appearances. He has also played every position except shortstop and center field, with most of his work coming at second base. VanMeter’s played plenty of first, third, and left as well.

Also, VanMeter is MLB’s most recent emergency catcher! Managers are a bit more willing to use their backup catchers strategically these days (usually after pinch-hitting for the starting catcher), but not that long ago using the backup catcher off the bench was a no go. Managers would worry about the backup catcher then getting hurt, and having to put someone else behind the plate.

That rarely happens, but it happened to VanMeter. With the Pirates on May 7th, 2022, VanMeter had to go behind the plate for an inning because backup catcher Andrew Knapp got ejected for arguing a check swing from the dugout, and starting catcher Roberto Pérez had to leave the game with an injury later on. It was VanMeter’s first time catching since high school.

“Pure panic,” VanMeter told Justice delos Santos about catching. “... It happened really fast. Pitchers did a really good job working with me. Didn't bounce too many balls, which made it easy. Sucks that we lost and it unfolded that way, but it's part of the gig. Just got to step up."

“When I went up to hit, I told him just to take it to arbitration,” Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson, who played with VanMeter in Cincinnati’s farm system, joked with delos Santos.

Anyway, I kinda think VanMeter should be on the bench? The big league bench, not the Triple-A bench. As I’ve said several times in recent weeks, I want Oswaldo Cabrera to go to Triple-A so he can get regular at-bats and hopefully get his career back on track. Using VanMeter as the last guy on the bench allows the Yankees to send Cabrera down without sacrificing versatility.

(I badly want Cabrera to work out. He’s energetic and a lot of fun, and it’s easy to see how a switch-hitter who can put a mistake in the seats and play just about anywhere could be a useful piece, if not an important piece.)

VanMeter is not good, though he’s not good in a way that’s useful to the Yankees. Think about it. When an outfielder sits, Trent Grisham should play, and when an infielder sits, Oswald Peraza should play. And no one in the projected starting lineup will be pinch-hit for regularly, right? Maybe Jose Trevino, though in that case Austin Wells would hit, not the last guy on the bench.

In a perfect world all the Yankees need their last bench guy to do is play a few innings in the field late in a blowout so someone else can rest, play a few innings when someone exits with an injury (until a better replacement is called up the next day), and maybe pinch-run once in a while. Otherwise Grisham and Peraza have it covered. They should be the go-tos off the bench.

The last bench guy doesn’t figure to play much and I’d rather that be VanMeter than Cabrera. Let VanMeter sit on the bench for days at a time – if he doesn’t get into a game for two series, who cares? – not the soon-to-be 25-year-old Cabrera. Also, VanMeter is a left-handed hitter who pulls the ball in the air to right field a good amount. Here are his career fly balls and line drives:

Perhaps he’d get a short porch boost whenever he does play? I can see it now: VanMeter hits a clutch homer in April, gets another big hit a week or two later, and everyone loves him. Then those big April hits keep him on the roster all season even though he hits .175/.240/.260 after April 30th, and we’ll complain about him all summer. It has been foretold.

On one hand, the Yankees should field the best possible team with the best possible players at each position. On the other hand, you have to be realistic about roles. The starting lineup is more or less set, and Grisham should be the first outfielder off the bench and Peraza should be the first infielder off the bench. If the Yankees need the 26th player on the 26-man roster to make an impact, then things are falling apart and they’re kinda screwed anyway.

“I think we have internal candidates, but I wouldn’t rule out opportunities that may exist via free agency or trade either,” Brian Cashman told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) about the bench last week. “Just going to stay open-minded to what the price points are out there relative to what we have here.”

Yankees also sign Rojas

Another utility signing: Jose Rojas, per Jon Morosi. It’s a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Two years ago Rojas hit .444/.545/.926 with six walks and three strikeouts during Cactus League play to make the Angels’ Opening Day roster. He then went 7-for-56 (.125) with 19 strikeouts and no walks during the regular season. Spring Training is full of lies.

Rojas, 31 next month, hit .253/.354/.474 (124 wRC+) with 19 home runs in 122 games for the Doosan Bears in KBO last year. Now he’s trying to make it back to MLB on a minor league deal. Rojas is career .279/.347/.531 (109 wRC+) hitter in nearly 1,200 Triple-A plate appearances and he plays the four corner positions, and can fake it at second base if needed.

The Yankees are pretty thin on upper level position player prospects – Everson Pereira, Ben Rice, and Jorbit Vivas will be the guys to watch in Scranton this summer – so they’ll have to fill out the RailRiders roster with journeyman types on minor league deals. This stuff is cyclical. Some years you have a ton of prospects in Triple-A, some years you don’t. It is what it is.

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