January 19th, 2024: Mailbag, First Base, Rodón, Keller, Matsui

My annual Top 30 Prospects List goes live three weeks from today. I’d say I’m 35% done. Compared to most years, I’m ahead of where I usually am three weeks out, not that it matters any to you folks. Anyway, other than a few non-urgent minor league moves that can wait until next week, things are quiet around the Yankees. I figured I’d use today’s post as an opportunity to empty out the inbox. Here’s an old school Friday mailbag post as Chien-Ming Wang goes into the Taiwan Baseball Hall of Fame and Hiroki Kuroda goes into the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame.

Mike asks: What do you think about the long term plan for 1st base? Once Rizzo's contract is up, there seems to be a few internal options but I'm not sure how viable any of them really are. In the short term you could have DJ slide over for his last couple years. Austin Wells has experience but you'd rather keep him behind the plate, right? If Soto re-signs, does he become a candidate? How do you shake out the potential future OF (Judge, Soto, Stanton, Dominguez, Jones, who are all under control for a while) and use 1st to get everyone involved? Who profiles best among the OF to move to the IF? Just curious what you think and what you would do (again assuming health and Soto re-signs)?

Anthony Rizzo’s contract includes a $17M club option with a $6M buyout for 2025, so that’s only an $11M decision. He doesn’t even need to have a great, fully healthy season to make picking that up an easy call. Get 2022 Rizzo – .224/.338/.480 (134 wRC+) in 130 games around back in trouble – in 2024, and that option gets picked up, and there’s the 2025 first baseman.

Long-term, I think you kinda have to expect Aaron Judge to wind up at first base at some point, though hopefully that point isn’t 2025 or 2026. DJ LeMahieu’s bat will be light for first base unless he continues his 2023 second half performance (.273/.377/.432 and 129 wRC+) for another few years, and how likely is that? Not very. LeMahieu turns 36 in July.

Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones are too young and too athletic to wind up at first base anytime soon. Austin Wells could, though the Yankees seem committed to him at catcher, so I don’t think they’re considering first base yet. Juan Soto? Yeah, first base could be his long-term home. Gotta get him under contract long-term before we worry about that.

The answer might be Ben Rice, who’s a legit prospect and one of the best hitters in the minors according to various analytical models (particularly those that weigh swing decisions more than exit velocity). Rice is a catcher now but not a good one, and he’s played a good amount of first base. He’s a lefty hitter and could be the answer there as a solid regular more than a star.

I should also mention Munetaka Murakami. He’s coming to MLB no later than the 2025-26 offseason and could be a target as a lefty power bat in his mid-20s. Murakami had a down year in 2023 (.256/.375/.500 with a 28.1% strikeout rate) compared to his record-breaking 2022 (.318/.458/.711), and he now looks destined to move off third base, but the youth and raw power are undeniable. Let’s see where Murakami is at when he does come to MLB.

You don’t see many players get talked up as first basemen of the future. If you draft and develop a great first baseman, like Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson or Mark Teixeira, great. So many first basemen start out at other positions though, and you’re not going to see many teams invest heavily in non-elite first basemen. No team is giving, say, Christian Walker five years to hold down first base. Or even Yandy Díaz, who turns 33 this summer.

If you have a great first baseman, cool, you’re ahead of the game. If not, teams are more apt to cycle through short-term commitments and figure things out on a year to year basis, which the Yankees did between Teixeira and Rizzo*. That’s how guys like C.J. Cron and late career Carlos Santana keep getting work, and why a guy like Jake Bauers had trade value.

* The first basemen hit .243/.322/.422 (105 wRC+) in over 2,700 plate appearances between Teixeira’s last game and Rizzo’s first game with the Yankees. That’s split into .286/.373/.537 for Luke Voit and .226/.302/.404 for everyone else. I didn’t say going year to year is a good idea, only that that’s what teams tend to do when they don’t have a great first baseman.

I was a fan of trading for Michael Busch and seeing whether he could be the next first baseman, though that’s off the table now. Ultimately, first base is not a high priority position and I wouldn’t worry about the post-2024 first base situation until after 2024. Unless Judge has to move to first sooner than expected, I don’t think the Yankees’ next long-term first baseman (the guy who spends 3-4 years at the position), is in the organization.

Michael asks: Is there any chance the Cubs trade Matt Mervis? He has great AAA numbers and the Cubs just blocked him with Busch.

Mervis, 26 in April, got squeezed out of the five-round draft in 2020 and signed with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent. He broke out in 2022 and slashed .309/.379/.605 (156 wRC+) with 36 home runs while climbing from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A. The Cubs signed Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini last winter as stopgaps until Mervis was ready to take over/had his service time manipulated.

After a month in Triple-A to begin 2023, the Cubs called Mervis up, sheltered him against tough lefties, and he hit .167/.242/.289 (46 wRC+) with a 32.3% strikeout rate in 99 plate appearances. They sent him back to Triple-A in June and he finished the season there (.282/.399/.533 and 132 wRC+ in Triple-A in 2023). Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote about Mervis last July (here’s video):

Mervis’ contact and chase rates are a bit worse than what is typical of the average big league first baseman. That’s arguably damning because, again, we’re talking about a player who spent most of (2022) as a 24-year-old at High- and Double-A … His raw power is real, though. Mervis’ hands are fast and powerful, and he’s capable of hitting titanic pull-side blasts … Hanging breaking balls and anything that finishes on the inner third of the plate are vulnerable to his pull-heavy style of swinging. Mervis can also slice doubles the other way against pitches low and away, but pitchers who can elevate on the outer third of the plate stand a pretty good chance of sneaking above his bat altogether … Mervis ends up being pretty long to the outer third of the zone, and big league fastballs up and away from hitters who swing like this tend to present a real problem. Mervis’ initial big league trial was pretty rough and we don’t anticipate things will get much better. He’s got a lot of Quad-A signals and we’re now receiving them.

Unless the Cubs are planning to play Michael Busch at third base, Mervis is ticketed for a return to Triple-A this year. It’ll be his third straight year spending time in Triple-A and his 26th birthday is coming up. That’s a tough spot. The Cubs could do the “hang onto him and wait until he rebuilds value” thing, but 26-year-old first base only guys with red flags usually don’t rebuild much value.

The first base depth chart behind Anthony Rizzo is DJ LeMahieu and, uh, Oswaldo Cabrera? Maybe Austin Wells and his zero professional innings at first base? The Yankees could use a Triple-A first baseman and general depth at the position, so Mervis would fit. He’s a pull heavy left-handed hitter. Perhaps he'd get a short porch boost whenever he gets called up.

Mervis is a year removed from being a fringe top 100 prospect, though the shine is mostly off, and soon to be 26-year-olds teetering on the edge of Quad-A status don’t have much trade value. The Cubbies need bullpen help. Would they do Ron Marinaccio for Mervis? (Would the Yankees?). That’s along the lines of Chasen Shreve for Luke Voit. I’m not sure I’d pay more.

As a low cost flier who at worst fills a void in Triple-A and at best factors into the long-term first base situation, sure, I’m in on Mervis. Just as long as it is a low cost move. If the Cubs hold him tight and demand a return in line with his prospect stock from a year ago, then forget it. You can sign and stash someone like Jared Walsh and plug the Triple-A hole that way.

David asks: We know the Yankees have fallen in love with cost cutting of all sorts in the last several years, but anecdotally it seems like they tend to try and find value in players, particularly pitchers, with significant injury history, and this never seems to work out. Marcus Stroman seems like the latest in a list that includes Frankie Montas, Carlos Rodon, Jameson Taillon, Corey Kluber, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, etc. It feels like the Yankees always expect these acquisitions to be major contributors to the rotation, in spite of previous health issues, rather than back-end, high-risk reclamation projects. My two questions are: 1. Do they actually use this approach more than other teams or does it just seem that way and 2. Has it actually worked out for them in other examples I’m not remembering, that they could point to as justifying their approach?

The Yankees definitely take on injury risk to get upside and they’re not alone. The Dodgers just did this with Tyler Glasnow (and Shohei Ohtani?). The Astros did it when they extended Lance McCullers Jr. The Braves did it with Chris Sale. The thinking is we’ll figure out a way to navigate around the injuries during the regular season, and our focus is making sure we have everyone ready for October.

Now, it’s a lot easier for the Dodgers and Astros and Braves to do that because they have better rosters than the Yankees, but the Yankees do it. If the Yankees lose Carlos Rodón for three months, they're kinda screwed. If the Braves lose Sale for three months, eh, they’ll probably be fine. The Dodgers can absorb Glasnow making only 20 starts. The Yankees can’t with Stroman.

Also, the Yankees do take this to the extreme. You can roll the dice on Sale’s upside when you’re reasonably certain you’re getting 60+ starts from Charlie Morton and Spencer Strider. You can take the Glasnow risk when you have a stable of big league ready young pitchers (Michael Grove, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, etc.) to cycle through.

The Yankees do not have the same caliber of depth as those teams and they play in a tougher division. When the Yankees lose a talented but injury prone player, the drop off to his replacement is significant, and that drop off is more costly in the standings. I get the strategy, stars win you championships, but you do need to balance it somewhat with reliability, and the Yankees don’t.

Ian asks: What do you think Carlos Rodon would get on the open market this winter? Thanks!

After the season he just had, certainly not five years and $135M, which is what remains on his contract. Rodón just turned 31 though, so he’s not old, and he was excellent from 2021-22. I don’t think he would have to settle for a one-year “prove yourself” contract in the $13M to $16M range like Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas, and Luis Severino.

I think Rodón would be a candidate for a two-year contract with an opt out, which is what he had with the Giants. Call it two years and $40M? That gives him some security but also the freedom to go back into free agency next offseason in case his 2024 looks more like 2021-22 than 2023. It might even be three years with two opt outs (i.e. Trevor Bauer’s contract with the Dodgers). This was a weak pitching market and Rodón was really, really good not too long ago.

Also, I just want to note that the “free agent would get less than what’s remaining on his contract one year into his deal” thing is not unique to Rodón. Would Aaron Judge get eight years and $320M this offseason? Probably not, no. Would Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or Justin Verlander get what’s remaining on their contracts? Nah. That’s free agency for you.

Chris asks: With the Yankees sudden need for multiple arms, I’ve always been intrigued by Mitch Keller. With whispers the Pirates might be listening on him, he might be the perfect pivot for the Yankees to solidify the middle of the rotation. Would he be a good fit and what would that cost be? Cashman does seem to have a good rapport in the past with Pittsburgh.

Chris sent this question in before the Marcus Stroman (and Luke Weaver) signing but obviously it’s still valid. The Yankees could use more pitching and a young, controllable starter like Keller is always worth discussing, even when you think you have enough arms.

Keller, 28, looked destined to be the next Gerrit Cole or Tyler Glasnow, the talented young starter who couldn’t put it together in Pittsburgh, then figured it out elsewhere. Keller did figure it out with the Pirates though. He added a sinker in May 2022 and it helped turn him into an effective starter. Here are the before and after numbers (here’s video):

• Before sinker: 6.08 ERA (4.35 FIP), 21.5 K%, 10.3 BB%, 41.5 GB% in 205.2 IP
• With sinker: 3.82 ERA (3.75 FIP), 23.5 K%, 7.5 BB%, 46.1 GB% in 318 IP

“I went to (pitching coach Oscar Marin) and said, ‘What do you think about throwing sinkers?’” Keller, who added a cutter in 2023, told Rob Biertempfel (subs. req’d) in June 2022. “He was like, ‘I was gonna say the same thing.’ Everyone was thinking about it, but it took me verbalizing it to somebody to make it a thing.”

The sinker pairs well with Keller’s sweeper and gives him a better chance to limit exit velocity and miss bats. He is a former top prospect and it feels like there’s still more in the tank, but at least now Keller is moving in the right direction. Can the Pirates get more out of him? They have not been good at pitcher development the last few years. (Poor Roansy Contreras).

Keller has two years of control remaining and he might come cheaper than two years of Dylan Cease, and he might outperform him the next two years too. Cease’s upside is much greater and so is the outside opinion of him. So many folks see him as an ace-in-waiting away from the White Sox. Keller may have the lower ceiling, but a) his ceiling isn’t low, and b) he has settled in at a pretty stable and reliable level. That ain’t nothing.

I’m in on Keller. I’m not sure what the trade package looks like – the Yankees could try the ol’ Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira gambit – and I don’t want to waste too much time trying to figure it out because a trade is unlikely to happen, but I’m in. Keller is good as is and there is reason to think he can get to another level. He won’t come cheap, but that’s life. I like it.

(Keller has said he’s open to an extension with Pittsburgh. If that doesn’t get done soon though, I have to think he’ll be available at the deadline. GM Ben Cherington knows he’ll get more in return for two postseason runs of Keller than one. Holding him until next offseason doesn’t make much sense unless the Pirates have a breakout year in 2023.)

Samuel asks: Given the Yankees propensity for high-risk, high-reward flyers in the starting pitching game (think Taillon, Paxton), if Severino played for a different team he would have been a tailor-made Yankee target this offseason. Did they actually consider a one-year deal for him? Or is it that he needs a change of scenery so makes sense for other teams but not the Yankees? Has anyone tried to quantify with data the idea of "change of scenery"?

The Yankees are not believed to have pursued a reunion with Luis Severino this offseason, according to Brendan Kuty. Was Severino open to coming back? Beats me. I’m guessing he would have at the right price. It’s probably for the best that they split up. Severino gets a fresh start with a new team and the Yankees can turn the page and no longer have to plan around Severino’s availability, or lack thereof.

I agree that, had Severino spent 2023 on some other team, we’d look at him differently. We just watched him get blasted all year and that puts a bad taste in your mouth. There were signs of decline in his stuff though. His fastball did not get as much induced vertical break (i.e. rise) as it did even in 2022 and his slider didn’t have the same movement either. Severino could be a few tweaks away. It’s also possible the injuries are catching up to him. There’s risk here.

As far as quantifying change of scenery success, Max Weinstein tried to do it a decade ago, and his conclusion amounts to sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. The success of a change of scenery candidate depends on the player and the team/coaches involved, and everyone is different. I hope Severino gets his career back on track. He’s so good and so fun when he’s on. Too bad his last year in pinstripes played out like it did.

Ben asks: Your Stroman post (specifically the Dominguez piece) had me wondering: why don’t teams just wait until after they can add players to the 60-day IL to make signings official? It makes no sense to me to willingly sacrifice depth because of the timing of a free agent signing. Is it as simple as the players/agents not being amenable to the delay, in case of injury or some other reason that the team might back out? Is it outlawed by the CBA?

There’s no rule against delaying a signing until the team is in a better place 40-man roster-wise. Waiting until Spring Training doesn’t happen because both sides want a signed contract and their business to be done. To use Marcus Stroman as an example, he doesn’t want to hang around unsigned and risk, say, Blake Snell lowering his asking price, and the Yankees pivoting that way. And the Yankees don’t want to lose Stroman if the desperate Giants come along and offer an extra $2M a year or something.

Signings will often be delayed a few days while the team gets the 40-man roster in order. The Dodgers did this with Joe Kelly and Shohei Ohtani. Those deals did not become official until after they opened 40-man space by trading Victor González and Jorbit Vivas to the Yankees. A few days is not a big deal, but waiting all the way until Spring Training? That’s a big ask. The short answer is both sides want the deal done ASAP, and figuring out the 40-man roster along the way is part of doing business.

(There really needs to be a 60-day injured list in the offseason. It can work the same way as it does in Spring Training: if you go on the 60-day IL before Opening Day, you have to miss the first 60 days of the regular season. It’s a win-win. Good for players and teams.)

Adam asks: If you can choose any one historical Yankees player season and plug that production directly into the 2024 Yankees team, which player season would you choose? Given the composition of the team, it’d have to be 2007 AROD, right? It feels like based on the current roster construction, the drop off from that to the next player on the depth chart is enormous.

Yeah, 2007 Alex Rodriguez is definitely up there. You could argue for several pitchers (1978 Ron Guidry, 2001 Mike Mussina, 2011 CC Sabathia, etc.), but another big bat would be ideal. What about 1999 Derek Jeter? Or 2002 Jason Giambi? Here are the 2024 positional projections from FanGraphs:

• NYY 1B: +1.7 WAR
• NYY SS: +2.8 WAR
• NYY 3B: +2.7 WAR

Giambi slashed .314/.435/.598 (175 wRC+) and was a +7.1 WAR player in 2002. Add him to the current shortstop and third base situations and that’s +12.6 WAR. Jeter was a +8.0 WAR player in 1999, so that’s +12.4 WAR between the three positions. With 2007 A-Rod (+9.4 WAR) it’s +13.9 WAR. So yeah, 2007 A-Rod would be the way to go at a quick glance.

Without doing the legwork of checking every single position, I’m guessing the “correct” answer is one of Babe Ruth’s +14 WAR seasons or whatever it was. Going from Alex Verdugo to peak Ruth is a bigger upgrade than going from the current third base situation to 2007 A-Rod. I think 2007 A-Rod is the way to go. Or maybe 1976 Graig Nettles (+8.0 WAR) if you prefer a lefty hitting third baseman. A-Rod was so good that handedness didn’t really matter though.

Tony asks: Why don’t Japanese stud players come straight to MiLB teams in the US so as to avoid the whole posting process, missing out on early/prime years - and $ - here in the US? Can we sign them as international free agents? Like, we know all about 14/15/16 year old Dominican kids. Is that not or can that not be the case with Japanese kids? Were the players who ultimately came here from Japan and crushed (Ohtani the most obvious example) not known for years in the way ARod, Griffey Jr, Bryce, etc were? If so, why don’t we just sign them as international free agents? Surely some would take the chance, no?

No Japanese player has ever signed with an MLB team straight out of high school. There are no rules against it, though MLB and NPB have a gentleman’s agreement not to poach each other’s amateurs. Without that agreement, MLB teams would sign all the best young Japanese players.

That hasn’t stopped several Japanese amateurs from expressing an interest in signing with an MLB team after high school, including Yusei Kikuchi and Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani tried to talk NPB teams out of drafting him, but the Nippon Ham Fighters took him with the No. 1 pick in 2012, and he agreed to sign with them after they promised to let him be a two-way player.

Here's what Ken Belson wrote about Ohtani leading into the 2012 NPB draft:

A 6-foot-4, 18-year-old right-hander from Iwate Prefecture in northern Japan, Otani wants to become the first Japanese player to jump directly from high school to American baseball. Several major league clubs are courting him, with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Texas Rangers and the Boston Red Sox among the favorites to sign him because they have scouted him aggressively.

In a widely watched news conference in Japan on Sunday, Otani made clear what has been rumored for months: that he wants to start his professional career in the United States. Otani made his announcement to dissuade Japanese professional teams from choosing him in the high school draft on Thursday.

…

Several of the 12 Japanese professional clubs have indicated that they will not draft Otani. If no club picks him, Otani will be free to negotiate with any M.L.B. team. Otani has not played for a Japanese professional team, so any major league team that signs him will not have to pay a posting fee.

If a Japanese team drafts him, the club will be able to negotiate with him exclusively until March 31. There are no rules preventing a major league team from negotiating with Otani as well, but M.L.B. has a gentlemen’s agreement with Nippon Professional Baseball to stand aside during the exclusive negotiating period.

There are two sides to this. MLB teams don’t sign top young Japanese players and NPB teams don’t sign top American amateurs. Imagine, say, the Seibu Lions offering Dylan Crews (the No. 2 pick last year) $4M a year for three years, and promising to post him after Year 3. Crews would make more money over the next three years and then be looking at a big free agent payday once he’s posted. Financially, that’s way better than going through the draft and six years of team control.

Rules (or in this case, gentlemen’s agreements) are made to be broken and eventually some MLB team will sign a top Japanese amateur. NPB will throw a fit and try to codify the gentlemen’s agreement, and MLB will act like it the gentlemen's agreement never existed. That day hasn’t come yet. To answer the question, MLB teams could technically sign top Japanese amateurs, but there’s a reason they don’t. The two leagues have an unofficial working relationship regarding amateur players.

John asks: At the beginning of the offseason Hideki Matsui was on my mind and I found myself thinking how great it would have been if prime-aged Hideki Matsui was available. Do you think he would have beaten the mark Jung-Hoo Lee set? Do you think he would have beaten the mark Cody Bellinger is about to set? Would you have preferred him on a multi-year deal to one year of Soto?

When he came to the Yankees, Matsui was entering his age 29 season and he was already one of the greatest Japanese hitters ever. He played 10 seasons with the Yomiuri Giants and was a nine-time All-Star, a three-time MVP, and a three-time Japan Series champion. In his final season with Yomiuri, Matsui hit .334/.461/.692 with 50 home runs. In his last four seasons with Yomiuri, he hit .322/.458/.665 and averaged 42 homers a year. The guy was (and is) a legend.

Baseball America no longer ranks NPB and KBO players as prospects, but they did back when Matsui came over. Here’s their Matsui scouting report entering 2003 (subs. req’d), when he was ranked as the Yankees’ No. 2 prospect behind Jose Contreras:

A fan favorite in Japan, Matsui has been known more commonly as "Godzilla" since his days at Seiryo High in Japan's Ishikawa perfecture. He won the Central League MVP award for the third time last year, finishing seven points in batting average shy of a triple crown. After leading the Giants to their second Japan Series championship in three years, and the third of his career, he wasted little time in declaring his intentions to pursue a career in the U.S. The Yankees signed him to a three-year contract worth $21 million. Squarely built with a solid, muscular frame, Matsui employs a classic Japanese swing. He pulls off pitches with a slight spin but is able to generate plus-plus power. He should enjoy the short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, and as one of the strongest players in Japan he displayed the raw power to drive the ball the other way as well. He has above-average bat speed and crushes mistakes over the plate. He's a patient hitter capable of working the count, and he's dangerous even with two strikes against him. For all of Matsui's home run prowess, he hit just .261 with four home runs in 119 at-bats in four years against touring U.S. major leaguers. Some scouts doubt his power will translate because of his unorthodox approach. Matsui feasted on the 361-foot alleys in Yomiuri's home park, the Tokyo Dome. He can be vulnerable to breaking balls in the dirt and there are questions whether he'll be able to catch up to the best major league fastballs. He won three Gold Gloves as a center fielder in Japan, though that was more for his popularity than for his defensive skills. His fringy arm and limited range will likely land him in left field in New York. Japanese scouts thought he might end up at first base, which is not a viable option, and Matsui couldn't handle third base when Yomiuri experimented with him there two years ago. The media circus that has followed Japanese players such as Ichiro and Hideo Nomo will be multiplied in New York, but Matsui has thrived under a microscope. His even-keeled approach should help him, and he'll also benefit from hitting behind Bernie Williams and Jason Giambi.

Matsui at third base, eh? That would’ve been a hoot. Anyway, Matsui’s power didn’t fully translate to MLB (topped out at 31 homers in 2004 and averaged 25 homers per 162 games with the Yankees), but he was a very good and very clutch hitter for a long time. In his seven seasons with the Yankees, Matsui authored a .292/.370/.482 (124 wRC+) line. He was awesome.

As for what prime Matsui would get now, we have a pretty decent benchmark: Masataka Yoshida. Yoshida came over when he was entering his age 29 season, the same point as Matsui, and he was arguably the best hitter in Japan at the time. Granted, Yoshida was not a power hitter like Matsui (power pays), but he hit .336/.449/.559 his last year with the Orix Buffaloes, plus he had several other elite seasons.

The Red Sox gave Yoshida a five-year, $90M contract that was widely panned as an overpay (it looks like one now, no?). I think Matsui would have definitely beaten that, but Yoshida’s contract gives us a decent reference point for a 29-year-old top Japanese hitter. So maybe it’s five years and $100M for Matsui? Or five years and $115M with an opt out at some point? Too much, too little?

Jung-Hoo Lee got six years and $113M, and although Lee is only 25, prime Matsui was much more accomplished in a better league. Five years and $115M is my guess. It’s $5M a year more than Yoshida and the total value beats Lee. I don’t think Matsui would top whatever Bellinger gets though. Bellinger’s younger, a better defender, and proven in MLB.

As for prime Matsui vs. Juan Soto, I’d say Soto. Take the proven MLB star over the soon-to-be 30-year-old who came with some uncertainty given the transition and all that. Really though, the best move would be trading for Soto and signing Matsui rather than trading for Alex Verdugo. Soto vs. prime Matsui, I’d take Soto. Verdugo vs. prime Matsui, I’m taking prime Matsui.

Jack asks: Following up on last week's mailbag question about sketchy baseball reporting this offseason, you mentioned that many of the hardcore bloggers don't exist anymore. What I'd love to understand is: Why? It would seem that, in an increasingly digital age, and in an era where newspapers are cutting back on staff and there are therefore fewer reporters covering teams, there would be more of this, not less. And hey, as your Patreon shows, you can actually make a nice living (or incredibly solid "side hustle") doing this. Very confused, and would love your insight.

It is really, really, really hard to monetize a blog. I consider myself lucky to be where I am, though I worked my ass off for a long time to get to this point. And I didn’t get here alone. Ben and Joe (and others) helped get RAB off the ground and make it popular, and I’m not here without them. I try to be humble about it but I’m not oblivious to RAB’s success. We were the most popular blog covering the most popular and most covered team in the sport. Standing out in the New York media market is hard.

Also, media has changed a lot – A LOT – since I started doing this 18 years ago. Back then launching a blog was the best way to get your voice out there, and you had to be good to get noticed (getting linked at MLBTR was like hitting the lottery back in the day). Now you can post on social media and the algorithm will plop you into everyone’s feed, you can shoot a video right on your phone, etc. People consume media differently than they did when I started, and media companies big and small have adjusted to the landscape because they need to make money.

I guess the answer to the question is it’s a lot of work to make even a little money off a blog, and you can more easily get noticed on social media or YouTube or whatever. And the people who do it as a hobby and because they love it are still out there, but there aren’t as many as there used to be. There are so many other ways to spend your time, you know? I wish I had a better answer but that’s pretty much it. It’s hard to make money and there are other ways to stand out. Blogging isn't the cool thing to do anymore.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)