Quick thoughts as the Yankees reportedly emerge as the favorite to sign Marcus Stroman

According to Jon Morosi, who’s had a very hit or miss offseason, the Yankees have emerged as the leading candidate to sign free agent right-hander Marcus Stroman. He says they’ve had “productive discussions in recent days.” It has been quite a few days on the Stroman front:

• Thursday: Stroman is not on the Yankees’ radar. [Randy Miller]
• Sunday: Stroman has informed the Yankees he’s interested in signing with them, but they had yet to make an offer. [Bob Nightengale]
• Monday: The Yankees and Stroman continue to have mutual interest. [Nightengale]
• Wednesday: The Yankees are the frontrunner to sign Stroman. [Morosi]

Who’s correct? Who knows! I can buy the Yankees have interest in Stroman given their rotation needs and the fact he’ll come cheaper than Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell. I could also buy the Yankees having no interest, and this frontrunner stuff being Stroman’s camp trying to drum up interest and create leverage against whatever teams are actually interested.

Now 32, Stroman is pretty obviously a fit for the Yankees on the field. How the Yankees order their rotation and where he slots in is ultimately irrelevant. Their No. 5 starter right now is either Clayton Beeter or Will Warren (or Cody Poteet), and Stroman would bump those guys down a rung on the depth chart and add a legitimate Major Leaguer to the rotation.

Injuries (shoulder, hip, ribs) prevented Stroman from reaching 140 innings each of the last two seasons, but, when he’s healthy, he does eat innings. Stroman averaged 5.9 innings per start in his first 20 starts last year (the MLB average was 5.1 innings per start in 2023), before the hip began to act up, and 15 times in those 20 games he completed at least six innings. He did that while throwing 100 pitches only twice.

That’s always how things have gone for Stroman in his career. His sinker, cutter, and curveball work in such a way that he seems to get at least one first or second pitch ground out per inning. Stroman’s always been ery efficient and the Yankees could use another starter they can reasonably count on for at least five and ideally six innings each time out.

Stroman had a 2.88 ERA (3.55 FIP) and held opponents to a .203/.278/.282 line in those first 20 starts last season, then he completely collapsed and allowed 26 runs in his final 18 innings. Maybe we can blame that on the hip injury. I dunno. On one hand, a healthy Stroman can be a very good pitcher. On the other hand, healthy Stroman is becoming increasingly harder to come by.

There are a few signs of decline. Stroman’s gone from being an elite ground ball guy (regularly above 60% with the Blue Jays) to merely above average the last few years (53.0% from 2021-23). He’s a single digit swinging strike rate guy and he’s allowing more hard contact as well. Seems like normal age-related decline to me.

A good infield defense is a must behind Stroman, so much so that, if the Yankees do sign him, playing Oswald Peraza during his starts would be a good idea. DJ LeMahieu isn’t a bad third baseman by any means, the Yankees will need their most athletic players on the field. Range and the ability to charge weak grounders will be a must behind Stroman.

Stroman was never really an ace, he was always more of a good No. 2 at his best, and now that he’s in his mid-30s (he turns 33 in May), you should probably expect something a little less than No. 2 production. I’d sign up for 160 innings with a 3.80 ERA in a heartbeat. Anything more is a win. Less than that, well, such is the risk with 30-somethings with a recent injury history.

What’s a reasonable contract? Beats me. This free agent market is hard to pin down. Stroman opted out his Cubs contract and left one year and $21M on the table. He’ll get more than that, at least across multiple years and more likely per year. The Yankees typically do not sign non-elite starters to multi-year contracts. That would have to change to land Stroman, right?

(Stroman was not eligible for the qualifying offer this offseason because he received it earlier in his career. There’s no draft pick compensation or anything.)

As for the off-day the field stuff, Stroman’s done some what I’ll call “Kyrie-esque” posting, and he can be a headache. It’s pretty telling that, as good as he’s been throughout his career, none of his previous teams made much of an effort to re-sign him. The Blue Jays didn’t, the Mets didn’t, and the Cubs aren’t. Stroman has worn out his welcome wherever he’s played.

There’s also the public back and forth with Brian Cashman that started when Cashman said he didn’t see Stroman as a difference-maker in response to a Sept. 2019 question about not getting him at that year's trade deadline. Stroman then took shots at the team’s rotation and the lack of recent World Series titles despite the payroll, and he was still going as recently as Nov. 2021.

That was all very dumb and unnecessary and not something that figures to stand in the way of a potential signing. They can be adults about it and have a productive professional relationship. That said, the first question Cashman will have to answer is “if you didn’t see Stroman as a difference-maker in 2019, why do you see him as one now, when he’s five years older?”

Stroman will have to answer questions about his criticism of the Yankees too. That’s just the way it goes. Cashman and Stroman know that and they’ll both put on a happy face and act like they love each other at the press conference. Players and GMs don’t have to like each other. The players kinda have to like each other though, and Stroman’s ruffled a few feathers in his day.

Assuming a reasonable contract, Stroman would be a good addition on the field with a chance to be a great one. Maybe not a big chance to be great given his age and the recent injuries, but a chance. The off the field stuff, well, that’s on the Yankees and Stroman to figure out. As an outsider, he can be annoying and that’s putting it mildly. The Yankees don’t seem to mind though.