January 9th, 2024: Pitching Market, Veteran Starters, Gómez, Peraza, Arbitration, Roessler

I am going to post one last reminder just in case some of you are just now sitting back down at your desk after a long holiday season vacation: I announced a small change to RAB and a new pricing tier. Thank you everyone for reading and your support over the years. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. The latest pitching rumors. Things are kinda sorta beginning to pick up. There have been a few mid-level trades and signings in recent days, and Shōta Imanaga’s 45-day posting window closes Thursday afternoon. A resolution is coming soon. When the biggest names will sign or get traded, I do not know, but there’s been activity in the second and third tiers lately.

For the Yankees specifically, things have been quiet, though that can change with one phone call or text message. Here’s the latest on their pitching pursuits:

• The Yankees have expressed “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. Chicago is asking teams for three premium prospects. [Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), Joel Sherman]
• Marcus Stroman informed the Yankees he’s interested in signing with them, and depending who you ask, they either have some interest or no interest. [Bob Nightengale, Randy Miller]
• Blake Snell has “privately” expressed interest in playing for the Yankees. That doesn’t seem very private, does it? [Andy Martino]
• The Yankees have discussed Jesús Luzardo with the Marlins and Shane Bieber with the Guardians. [Nightengale]

Jon Heyman adds “Hal Steinbrenner is said to be on board with the concept of a serious addition to a rotation,” so we can add another entry to the “Hal does the bare minimum expected of him” file. Pretty sick of hearing the Yankees are open to doing things, folks. Go do them already.

Anyway, this isn’t Yankees-specific, but Jeff Passan (subs. req’d) says the chances of a Bieber or Corbin Burnes trade are dwindling, with a Burnes trade in particular seen as unlikely. The Brewers did win the NL Central last year, and that division isn’t exactly loaded with powerhouses. I get keeping him and trying to make a run. We can circle back to Burnes at the deadline.

Luzardo, 26, had a 3.58 ERA (3.55 FIP) in 178.2 innings with strong underlying numbers last year: 28.1% strikeouts, 7.4% walks, and 14.1% swinging strikes. The ground ball rate and contact quality are so-so, but a lefty with Luzardo’s stuff (mid-90s fastball, slider, changeup) and three years of control is always worth pursuing. He’d meaningfully improve the 2024-26 outlook.

The downside is Luzardo’s ugly injury history. With the caveat that a trade hasn’t happened yet and may not happen at all, part of me wonders if new Marlins POBO Peter Bendix is looking at that injury history …

• 2016: Tommy John surgery as a high school senior (he was drafted that summer)
• 2017: Returned from Tommy John surgery in June
• 2018: Missed 2.5 months with a rotator cuff strain
• 2019: Missed 1.5 months with a lat strain
• 2020: Healthy!
• 2021: Missed a month with a broken pinky (he broke it playing video games)
• 2022: Missed 3.5 months with a forearm strain
• 2023: Healthy!

… and saying let’s trade this guy now, and sell high on him when he’s coming off his first healthy 162-game season basically ever. Bendix came over from the Rays and that would be an extremely Rays move. I suspect the asking price for Luzardo will be too high for the Yankees, though of course they should check in and at least find out what it’ll take.

As for Stroman, his market has been frigid this offseason (his MLBTR archive has cobwebs) and he’s had some injuries the last two years, and there are steady signs of decline in his whiff rates, his ground ball rates, his ability to limit contact, and his ability to eat innings. Normal age-related stuff for a soon-to-be 33-year-old, I’d say. (To be fair, Stroman was very good before his hip and shoulder began to act up last year.)

Stroman, a native Long Islander, has wanted to play for the Yankees for a while now – "He was hoping it was the Yankees a little bit,” his father said after he was traded to the Mets in 2019 – and there have been public jabs back and forth. Brian Cashman said Stroman wouldn’t have made the 2019 postseason rotation*, Stroman called out the Yankees' pitching, etc. It was all very dumb and unnecessary, and Stroman was still going on about as recently as Nov. 2021.

* Cashman said this in Sept. 2019, before the postseason, when the Yankees had to start a gassed Chad Green with the season on the line in ALCS Game 6. Even at the time though, it was very obviously a dumb thing to say, not to mention incorrect.

The war of words wouldn’t stand in the way of the Yankees signing Stroman. They’re all adults and can have a productive professional relationship. The larger question is whether Stroman is worth signing given the subtle – yet real – signs of decline. He walked away from $21M when he opted out of his Cubs deal. Does two years and $50M with an opt out work? For either side? I like Stroman more than love him, though he’d certainly improve the rotation.

Speaking of two years with an opt out, the Mets gave Sean Manaea one of those contracts over the weekend. Two years and $28M with the opt out. In last week’s mailbag I wondered whether two years and $30M with an opt out would work, and I guess so. Nice little signing for the Mets. I would have liked it for the Yankees too. Another mid-range free agent is off the board.

The official RAB position on Cease is, before you start surrendering top prospects for him, see how big of a discount taking on the $29M owed to Yoán Moncada gets you. The Yankees could add Moncada to their third base mix and, if things go poorly, he’s gone in a year anyway. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is absolutely cheap enough to take the savings over the prospects.

Chicago is said to want three premium prospects for two years of Cease and, honestly, it’s not unreasonable. That’s more or less what the Reds got for 1.5 years of Luis Castillo. I’m just not sure it’s going to happen, even in his weak pitching market. My preference is spending money to solve the pitching, and keeping the prospects. That may not be possible though.

Pitchers and catchers report in about five weeks. I expect the Yankees to have at least one new starter and one new reliever by then, in part because I assume the brain trust realizes it would be very dumb to trade for one year of Juan Soto and then skimp on everything else. Maybe that’s overly optimistic of me. We’ll see. Either way, I hope things start happening soon.

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Veteran starters. Every day I wake up, look at the list of free agent starting pitchers and hope I’ll see someone I’ve missed all the other days, but nope, it’s the same underwhelming list day after day. There’s Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell at the top of the market, then a big pile of meh. Not much to get excited about these days.

The trade market has more to offer, though we don’t know whether trades for Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease are even realistic. The Brewers seem to want to keep Burnes and try to contend in a weak NL Central, and the White Sox are reportedly asking for the moon for Cease. Burnes may not be available and Cease may be too cost prohibitive. Shane Bieber then? Meh.

There are other trade possibilities out there though, some we surely don’t know about, and I had an idea to look for the Josh Donaldson of pitchers. A starter owed big money but with only 1-2 years remaining on his contract. Donaldson worked out horribly, of course, but the trade logic is not completely insane. Especially given what’s out there in free agency.

There’s a recent example of this: Chris Sale. The Braves reportedly tried to sign Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, then offered Vaughn Grissom and others for Cease, and when none of that worked out, they took Sale off the Red Sox’s hands. Boston wanted to shed as much money as possible and get a young player. Sale is the pitching version of the Donaldson trade, in a way.

Who are some candidates other than Sale to be the pitching version of the Donaldson trade? There are fewer than I would’ve guessed! A lot of pitchers who are coming up a free agency you either don’t want (Patrick Corbin) or aren't available (Nathan Eovaldi, etc.). Here are a few starters who could be of interest in a pitching version of the Donaldson trade.

LHP Tyler Anderson, Angels

2023 stats: 5.43 ERA (4.92 FIP), 18.9 K%, 10.2 BB%, 30.9 GB% in 141 IP
Contract: $13M in 2024 and $13M in 2025

In 2022, the Dodgers signed Anderson to a one-year “prove yourself” contract worth $8M and coached him up to a 2.57 ERA (3.31 FIP) in 178.2 innings. The Angels then signed the coached up version of Anderson to a three-year contract (and gave up a draft pick and international bonus money to do it) and got the worst season of his career. Funny how that works.

Now 34, Anderson has an excellent changeup (39.8% whiff rate in 2023), though his four-seamer got hammered. He went from being one of the top exit velocity suppressors in the game to being just a tick better than average. For what it’s worth, new Angels pitching coach Barry Enright told Sam Blum (subs. req’d) there were issues with pitch selection, and Anderson hurt himself by chasing more movement.

I think it’s fair to say that, when it comes to pitching, the Yankees are closer to the Dodgers than they are to the Angels, but they’re still not the Dodgers. Forget the 2022 version. Is there a path to getting Anderson back to league average? He’s a lower velocity four-seamer/changeup/cutter pitcher with a knee injury history. In this market $13M a year isn’t that much, but it’s still a lot.

Verdict: Unless the Angels eat a big chunk of money, I say pass. Expecting Anderson to be league average still might be asking too much. Other than 2022, his last league average season was 2018. I’d be more willing to roll the dice on one year of Anderson at $13M in the No. 5 spot. That second year is the deal-breaker for me.

RHP Anthony DeSclafani, Mariners

2023 stats: 4.88 ERA (4.35 FIP), 18.9 K%, 4.8 BB%, 41.5 GB% in 99.2 IP
Contract: $12M in 2024

DeSclafani, 34 in April, has been around so long that he was once traded for Josh Johnson, and traded another time for Mat Latos. The Giants traded him to the Mariners last week in the Robbie Ray deal and he looks like a salary offset to me more than a guy Seattle wants in their rotation. They took DeSclafani’s 2024 salary to unload Ray’s 2025-26 salary.

Seattle’s rotation currently lines up like this:

1. RHP Luis Castillo
2. RHP George Kirby
3. RHP Logan Gilbert
4. RHP Bryce Miller
5. RHP Anthony DeSclafani (probably?)
6. RHP Bryan Woo
7. RHP Emerson Hancock

Miller and Woo have been involved in all sorts of trade rumors this offseason and I suppose they could still be dealt, but the Mitch Haniger and Luke Raley pickups make it less likely. Seattle has been in cost cutting mode all offseason and Cot’s estimates their 2024 payroll at $135M. They had a $137M payroll last offseason. Ownership refuses to raise payroll, I guess.

Would the Mariners then be willing to flip DeSclafani to get out from under that $12M in 2024? Is he even worth bringing in? He was great in 2021 (3.17 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 167.2 innings) but has been injured and mediocre to bad since, though I know DeSclafani is a big pitch trait guy. Or at least he was earlier in his career. These days he’s closer to ordinary, I’d say.

One thing I will say is DeSclafani fits the Yankees’ preferred profile as a sinker/slider guy with a changeup that gets a lot of ground balls (51.6% in 2023) and limits exit velocity (85.9 mph). The Mariners have been so desperate to unload salary this offseason that they’re giving dudes away (i.e. Eugenio Suárez). You might be able to get DeSclafani for nothing but salary relief.

(There’s speculation the Mariners may make a run at Matt Chapman, which makes sense given their lack of a third baseman. Trading DeSclafani would offset some payroll for Chapman.)

Verdict: You know what? I’m in as long as a) the Yankees get him as a salary dump and don't give up anything worthwhile, and b) he’s one of several rotation additions and not the addition. I don’t think rolling the dice on DeSclafani is much different than rolling the dice on Frankie Montas and Luis Severino. They’ve all battled injuries and ineffectiveness lately. Montas and Severino were both effective in 2022 (Montas before the trade), which is more recent than DeSclafani, but $12M or so is the going rate for a roll of the dice starter.

RHP Jon Gray, Rangers

2023 stats: 4.12 ERA (4.47 FIP), 21.6 K%, 8.2 BB%, 40.0 GB% in 157.1 IP
Contract: $13M in 2024 and $13M in 2025

For a few years everyone wondered how good Gray, the No. 3 pick in the 2013 draft, could be outside Coors Field, and the answer is … he’s fine? He’s been more or less league average in his two years with the Rangers. A late season forearm issue kept him out of the postseason rotation, though Gray did allow one run and strike out eight in 5.1 postseason relief innings.

Now 32, Gray is the prototypical mid-rotation “get ahead with the fastball, put them away with the slider, occasionally show them the changeup” pitcher. He’s generally run above average strikeout and ground ball rates, though both took a step back and were below average this year. Perhaps the early season back injury and late season forearm injury explain that?

The Rangers really need to add pitching, not subtract it. Their rotation currently looks like this:

1. RHP Jacob deGrom (will miss most of 2024 following Tommy John surgery)
2. RHP Max Scherzer (will miss start of 2024 following back surgery)
3. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
4. RHP Jon Gray
5. RHP Tyler Mahle (will miss start of 2024 following Tommy John surgery)
6. RHP Dane Dunning
7. LHP Andrew Heaney
8. LHP Cody Bradford

Come the second half of the season, the defending World Series champions could have a fierce rotation, but they have to get through the first half of the season first. Eovaldi has injury concerns of his own too. Gray and Dunning are their best bet for innings this year.

I think there’s only one way a Gray trade happens: Texas re-signs Jordan Montgomery and has to shed salary to make it work financially because of the Bally Sports thing. They’d probably rather move Heaney ($13M in 2024) and I bet they’d be able to, though the Yankees aren’t going down that road again. If the Rangers don’t re-sign Montgomery, Gray is staying put.

Verdict: I don’t see Gray as a realistic trade target. If the Rangers re-sign Montgomery, they’ll do it knowing either a) they won’t have to cut money elsewhere to make it happen, or b) they won’t have to move a player as important as Gray to make payroll work. To get Gray will require a baseball trade and hey, maybe that’s worth exploring. Seems unlikely he’ll be available though.

LHP Steven Matz, Cardinals

2023 stats: 3.86 ERA (3.75 FIP), 21.8 K%, 7.1 BB%, 44.6 GB% in 105 IP
Contract: $12M in 2024 and $12M in 2025

Weird season for Matz last year. He began 2023 in the rotation, had a 5.72 ERA (4.78 FIP) in his first 10 starts, then got moved to the bullpen. Matz pitched well in relief (2.81 ERA and 2.69 FIP), then moved back into the rotation in July when Adam Wainwright went on the injured list. He had a 1.86 ERA (2.84 FIP) in seven starts before a lat strain ended his season in mid August.

Matz’s last three years are pretty fascinating, though, to be fair, injuries limited him to only 48 innings in 2022, so we don’t have the biggest sample. His underlying numbers have held pretty steady while his ERA bounced around:

Matz’s career stand rate is 74.4%. He had some tough strand rate luck in his 48 innings in 2022, so his ERA ballooned, otherwise the underlying indicators are all more or less in the same place. Even DRA and xERA, which consider contact quality among other adjustments, say Matz has been league average-ish the last three seasons, if not a better than average.

Matz is a three-pitch pitcher – mid-90s sinker, curveball, changeup – who has historically been as good against righties as he is against lefties. Nothing about him stands out other than the fact he’s not bad at anything. He’s not great at anything either, strikeouts or grounders or whatever, but he’s not bad at anything. Matz can miss some bats, get some grounders, limit hard contact a bit, so on and so forth. The whole seems to be greater than the sum of the parts.

Although he turns 33 in May, Matz is the youngest member of the Cardinals’ projected rotation after they added Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray, and Lance Lynn to Miles Mikolas. Trading Matz would clear salary – the Cardinals are in the Bally Sports crosshairs too – and also clear a spot for a younger pitcher like Matt Liberatore, Sem Robberse, or Drew Rom.

That said, given the ages of those veteran starters, St. Louis will probably need their young guys to cover innings this summer anyway, and I don’t think they would have spent that much on Gibson, Gray, and Lynn if they were seriously concerned about the Bally Sports stuff (to be fair, Gibson and Lynn are on one-year contracts). I’m not sure how eager the Cardinals are to move Matz, to be honest.

Verdict: Matz would be worth a deeper dive if word gets out that he’s available. He has a scary injury history (it’s all arm injuries too) and he’s already toeing the line between effective and OMG how many more years on his contract??? If it were just one year, I’d be more open to Matz. That second year is the hangup for me, similar to Anderson.

RHP Ross Stripling, Giants

2023 stats: 5.36 ERA (5.21 FIP), 18.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 44.0 GB% in 89 IP
Contract: $12.5M in 2024

The Giants gave out two of those “two years with an opt out” contracts last offseason. One was good (Sean Manaea), one was not (Stripling). Stripling pitched so poorly that, after he landed on the injured list with a back strain in August, the Giants just kept him there. He called them out for keeping him on the phantom injured list, and eventually he was activated late in September.

Stripling and POBO Farhan Zaidi go back to their time together with the Dodgers, and it seems Zaidi overlooked Stripling’s fluky low home run rate in 2022 when he signed him. Either that or he thought the regression wouldn’t be as severe in Oracle Park. Find the outlier:

• 2020: 2.37 HR/9 and 22.8% HR/FB
• 2021: 2.04 HR/9 and 17.2% HR/FB
• 2022: 0.80 HR/9 and 7.7% HR/FB
• 2023: 2.02 HR/9 and 22.0% HR/FB

Talk about a well-timed home run prevention season, eh? Right before free agency. Stripling missed fewer bats than usual last season, though his stuff was fine. The Giants had him throw way more sliders than ever and it was probably too much. The pitch played worse than usual. Is that fixable in 2024? Stripling turned 34 in November, so age is not on his side.

Robbie Ray won’t return from Tommy John surgery until the middle of 2024 and Alex Cobb will miss the start of the season following hip surgery, so after trading DeSclafani, San Francisco’s rotation is Logan Webb, Stripling, and a bunch of kids. They need to add pitching, not subtract it. Then again, perhaps trading Stripling is addition by subtraction?

Verdict: Can’t do it. There are things to like about Stripling – he rarely walks hitters and he can pitch in any role – but it’s fair to say he’s a true talent 2.0 HR/9 guy, and that’s not gonna fly in Yankee Stadium. I’m sure there are reasons to believe Stripling can bounce back in 2024, but the overall body of work the last four years is not good once you recognize that 2022 home run rate for what it is (a fluke that is unlikely to be repeated).

RHP Taijuan Walker, Phillies

2023 stats: 4.38 ERA (4.53 FIP), 18.8 K%, 9.7 BB%, 44.6 GB% in 172.2 IP
Contract: $18M per year from 2024-26

Walker, now 31, is a great example of “sometimes you just need a guy.” A guy who gives you innings and is a good teammate. You don’t need him to be an ace and you don’t even need him to pitch in the postseason. You just need him to post up every fifth day during the regular season and put you in position to get to October. That’s Walker.

After all his early career injuries, Walker is one of only 18 pitchers to throw at least 150 innings in each of the last three seasons, and his innings generally fall in the “competent to good” range. The Phillies have an ace (Zack Wheeler), a good No. 2 (Aaron Nola), a good No. 3 (Ranger Suárez), and an interesting No. 5 (Cristopher Sánchez). They only need Walker to be a plug and play low maintenance No. 4, and that’s what he is.

There are rumblings the Phillies are in play for Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell. They are set to run a franchise record payroll in 2024 and they’re a few million short of the $257M luxury tax threshold. That is not the draft pick penalty threshold (that’s $277M), but either Montgomery or Snell would push them into that range, and it would push Sánchez to the bullpen even though he’s earned the opportunity to start.

It stands to reason that, if the Phillies do reel in Montgomery or Snell, they would look to unload Walker and free up both a rotation spot and payroll room. What are the odds that all happens? Not good, I don’t think, but we shouldn’t put anything past POBO Dave Dombrowski and owner John Middleton. They’ve shown a knack for surprising out-of-nowhere moves.

Verdict: Three years at $18M apiece is a lot for a No. 4 starter whose value is tied up in the volume of innings he provides rather than the quality of those innings. There’s a pretty good chance Walker’s next three years will be worse than his last three years (4.12 ERA and 4.26 FIP). One or even two years? Okay. But three? Ehhh, thanks but no thanks.

* * *

I thought about including Lance McCullers Jr., but he didn’t pitch in 2023 because of an elbow injury and he was limited to 47.2 innings by a different elbow injury in 2024, and he’s got three years at $17M a pop remaining on his contract. I started to write him up and one sentence in I was like, what am I doing? I’ll set the over/under on McCullers innings from 2024-26 at 299.5.

Assuming Gray is not actually available, DeSclafani strikes me as the guy to get. Or, really, he’s the only guy listed here who is close to a yes. Multiple years of Matz and especially Anderson is unappealing, Stripling’s home run issues are too extreme to overlook, and Walker probably won’t become available. And even then, DeSclafani makes sense only as a salary dump.

I’m not sure how the Yankees plan to address their rotation – they might not even know right now – but I think we’ve covered just about every base here. The good free agents, the not so good free agents, the good trade targets, the not so good trade targets. Inevitably, this means the Yankees will acquire someone who isn’t on the radar at all. That’s usually how it goes, no?

3. Latest roster news and notes. A few non-transactional roster nuggets came to light over the last few days, some more important than others. Let’s round them up now.

Gómez has a fourth option

Yoendrys Gómez does indeed have a fourth minor league option for 2024, reports Joel Sherman. I figured that was the case, though it’s nice to have it confirmed. Gómez can be shuttled back and forth between Triple-A and MLB without being exposed to waivers. Every player gets three option years and every so often, usually for injury reasons, players are given a fourth option.

The oft-injured Gómez (it’s all arm injuries too) set a new career high with 67.1 innings in 2023. That includes his two-inning MLB debut. He struck out four of the eight batters he faced (video). The fourth option means Gómez can return to the minors and, hopefully, pile up innings and make up for lost time rather than work sporadically as the last guy in the MLB bullpen.

Now 24, Gómez has thrown 81.2 career innings in Double-A, including 65.1 innings in 2023. He pitched well (3.58 ERA and 3.83 FIP with 28.5% strikeouts) despite too many walks (13.5%). I expect Gómez to open this season in the Triple-A rotation. The big league rotation is far from settled, but figure Scranton’s rotation to open 2024 will look something like this:

1. RHP Clayton Beeter
2. RHP Will Warren
3. RHP Cody Poteet (who?)
4. RHP Yoendrys Gómez
5. LHP Edgar Barclay? RHP Cody Morris?

The Yankees could use a Triple-A innings guy. A veteran like Ryan Weber who can start, relieve, and generally soak up whatever innings the prospects don't throw. That though, for all intents and purposes, is the Triple-A rotation with Jhony Brito, Richard Fitts, and Randy Vásquez having been traded away. (Drew Thorpe was ticketed for a return to Double-A to begin 2024.)

It’s never been a question of stuff or, at least prior to 2023, control with Gómez. On talent, he’s a top 3-5 arm in the system. He just hasn’t been able to stay healthy. With any luck, this will be the year it happens, and the fourth option allows Gómez to get up to 100 innings on the season. If nothing else, the Yankees will be able to shuttle him up and down as a depth arm.

Peraza has a fourth option too (?)

According to Sherman, Oswald Peraza also has a fourth option. I have no idea why. Other than a 10-day stint on the big league injured list with an ankle issue last May, he’s been perfectly healthy the last three years. Peraza used his three options in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Why he gets one for 2024, I do not know. This fourth option stuff, man. It never seems to make sense.

Anyway, I’m not sure having a fourth option changes much for Peraza. He's played 170 career games in Triple-A and has done all he needs to do at that level. Peraza is the obvious choice (the only choice, really) to serve as Anthony Volpe’s backup, and there’s an opportunity to get regular playing time at third base if Peraza hits and/or DJ LeMahieu begins to show his age.

Peraza is also a trade candidate, though I don’t think the fourth option matters there. No team will trade a starting pitcher for Peraza and say hell yeah, I’m glad I can send this guy to Triple-A! If the Yankees get in a roster bind and need to carry a third catcher or something for a few days, then Peraza’s fourth option could come in handy. Otherwise it’s academic.

There’s still no word whether Ben Rortvedt has a fourth option. I think he has one, but who knows. I think that, if Rortvedt did have a fourth option, we probably would have found out about it when we found out about Gómez and Peraza. The Yankees could put Rortvedt on waivers after Opening Day, after teams set their rosters and are less likely to make a claim. That’s what they did with Estevan Florial last year. We’ll find out soon enough.

Arbitration filing deadline coming up

This Friday is the arbitration salary filing deadline. The player files what he believes he should be paid and the team files what they believe he should be paid. The vast majority of arbitration-eligible players will sign 2024 contracts before the deadline and not have to file, and even if they do file, they can still work out a contract after filing and before hearings begin later this month.

The Yankees began the offseason with an MLB high 17 arb-eligible players. Only six of those 17 players remain with the team, though the Yankees picked up four more arb-eligible players in recent weeks. Here are their 10 arb-eligibles and their MLBTR projections:

MLBTR’s projections are very good ballpark estimates, not a definitive “he’s worth exactly this much and if you pay him less/more it’s a bargain/overpaying” projection. They’re usually within a few hundred thousand of the real number and every so often they miss wildly. It happens.

Even if MLBTR’s projection is high, Soto has a great chance to set a new salary record for an arb-eligible player. The current record is Shohei Ohtani’s $30M in 2023, and the previous record was the $27M the Dodgers gave Mookie Betts in 2020 (before salaries were prorated). The $33M projection would make Soto the 15th highest paid player in baseball this coming season, easily the highest among players yet to reach free agency.

Not much to see with the other projections. Cortes, Loáisiga, and Trevino are projected for small raises because they missed so much time with injuries last year. Defense doesn’t really pay in arbitration unless you rack up Gold Gloves. Grisham has two and Trevino has one (including a Platinum Glove), so their projections outpace their offense a tad.

Last offseason the Yankees signed nine of their 10 arb-eligibles on filing day. Torres, the one who didn’t sign on filing day, signed not too long after. The Yankees haven’t gone to an arb hearing since beating Dellin Betances in 2017. Unless they have a hard time getting on the same page with one of the new guys, the smart bet is on no arb hearings again this year.

Yankees hire Roessler as assistant hitting coach

Pat Roessler is back with the Yankees. He is replacing Brad Wilkerson as an assistant hitting coach, reports Randy Miller. Roessler, 64, has been at this so long he was once a hitting coach for the Expos. He was the Yankees' director of player development from 2005-14, and he served as an assistant hitting coach with the Nationals most recently. (He worked with Juan Soto from 2020 until Soto was traded to the Padres in 2022.)

Barring any unexpected last minute changes, the 2024 coaching staff is set:

• Manager: Aaron Boone
• Bench coach: Brad Ausmus (new)
• Hitting coach: James Rowson (new)
• Assistant hitting coaches: Roessler (new) and Casey Dykes
• Pitching coach: Matt Blake
• Assistant pitching coach: Desi Druschel
• First base coach: Travis Chapman
• Third base coach: Luis Rojas
• Bullpen coach: Mike Harkey
• Quality control and catching coach: Tanner Swanson

The three new coaches all had previous ties to the Yankees. Ausmus was a minor league player way back when, Rowson coached in the farm system for several years, and Roessler ran player development for a decade*. I don’t know if bringing back familiar faces was intentional or if things just worked out that way, but all three new coaches have been here before.

* Rowson and Roessler overlapped when they both worked in the farm system a decade ago.

When the Yankees hired Wilkerson and later Sean Casey, it was believed they hired former big leaguers so they could connect with players on a level the analytics guys (Dykes and Dillon Lawson) could not. None of the three current hitting coaches played in MLB, though Rowson has a prior history with many players (most notably Aaron Judge) and Roessler’s been at this a long, long time. Fingers crossed they have more success with the offense than Lawson did.

2024 trade deadline set

One more from Sherman: the 2024 trade deadline will be 6pm ET on Tuesday, July 30th. The Collective Bargaining Agreement gives Rob Manfred the ability to set the trade deadline anytime between July 28th and Aug. 3rd, and apparently everyone involved likes having the deadline on a Tuesday, so Tuesday it is. (It was Tuesday, Aug. 1st last season.)

The Yankees will be in Philadelphia on trade deadline day. They have a game at 6:40pm ET that night, 40 minutes after the deadline, and then a 12:35pm ET game the next day. If the Yankees make a trade on deadline day, there’s a decent chance whoever they get will be unavailable that night and also the next day. (The same applies to the Phillies, so no harm, no foul.)

I think the league prefers a Tuesday trade deadline because Monday is a common MLB off-day and it is the universal off-day in the minors. Tuesday day games are rare, so there will be less pulling guys from the lineup or scratching starters in the 36-48 hours leading up to the trade deadline. That gives (most) front offices a nice long runway leading up to the deadline without games being played. I think? I dunno. Whatever.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Last week the YES Network and MSG Networks announced a new joint venture that, Andrew Marchand says, could one day lead to a combined direct-to-consumer streaming service that includes all the YES (Yankees, Nets, etc.) and MSG (Knicks, Rangers, Islanders, Devils, etc.) teams. Both networks already have their own app and DTC. Marchand says a combined YES and MSG service is not imminent, but things are moving in that direction. Point is, there may soon be another way to watch all these teams without cable and through one single service. YES is $24.99 a month and MSG is $29.99 a month. If the combined service comes in at under $50 a month, I will be surprised. (I don’t know about you, but I find the MSG app way less buggy and much easier to use than the YES app.)

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)